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Benihana
08-18-2008, 01:10 AM
I wanted to wait until the August 15 deadline had passed to post the August Edition. So, without further ado...

GRADE A

1. Yonder Alonso, 21, 1B, A+
2. Todd Frazier, 22, 1B/3B/LF, A+
3. Daryl Thompson, 22, RHP, AAA

GRADE B

4. Neftali Soto, 19, 3B/LF, A
5. Drew Stubbs, 23, CF, AAA
6. Chris Valaika, 22, 2B, AA
7. Josh Roenicke, 25, RHP, AAA
8. Kyle Lotzkar, 19, RHP, A (injured)
9. Devin Mesoraco, 20, C, A
10. Juan Francisco, 21, 1B/RF/C??, A+
11. Zach Stewart, 21, RHP, A+

GRADE C

12. Zach Cozart, 22, SS, A
13. Travis Wood, 21, LHP, A+
14. Matt Maloney, 24, LHP, AAA
15. Shaun Cumberland, 23, OF, AAA
16. Daniel Dorn, 23, OF, AA
17. Sean Henry, 22, OF, AA
18. Justin Turner, 23, 2B, AA
19. Brandon Waring, 22, 3B, A
20. Dallas Buck, 23, RHP, A+

ON THE RADAR

21. Sam LeCure, 23, RHP, AA
22. Daniel Herrera, 23, LHP, AAA
23. Tyler Pelland, 23, LHP, AAA
24. Sean Watson, 23, RHP, AA
25. Pedro Viola, 24, LHP, AA

KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to rate)

Yorman Rodriguez 16 OF R
Juan Duran 16 OF R
Alex Oliveras 18 OF R
Evan Hildenbrant 19 RHP R
Alex Buchholz 21 2B R (injured)

OTHER NAMES TO KNOW (no longer prospect status, but don't forget about)

Homer Bailey 22, RHP AAA
Micah Owings 25, RHP/OF?? AAA
Carlos Fisher 25, RHP AAA
Ben Jukich 25, LHP AA
Robert Manuel 25, RHP AA
Danny Richar 25, 2B/SS AAA
Craig Tatum 25, C AAA

The guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Drew Stubbs of course, who rocketed all the way up to AAA after an impressive month in Chattanooga. Perhaps helped by the hole on the major league team, Stubbs figures to get an invite to big league camp in the spring with a legitimate shot to make the team, possibly even as a starter or at least in a platoon situation with Chris Dickerson. Additionally, the signings of Alonso and Rodriguez, coupled with the Dunn and Griffey trades, have boosted both the overall talent level as well as the depth of the system. Alonso and Owings should both be significant parts of the major league team by the end of 2009, while Richar should be a nice utility guy off the bench. Rodriguez, much like Juan Duran, has an astronomically high ceiling but is also several years away from being a factor. He was heralded as one of the best outfielders ever to sign out of Venezuela, hopefully he lives up to even half of that billing. Ditto for Duran out of the Dominican. Finally, I mentioned this in another thread last week, but I'd really like to see the Reds try Juan Francisco behind the plate. Many impressive names at the big league level started out as infielders in the minors, including All-Stars Russell Martin and Geovany Soto, as well as former All-Star Terry Steinbach, who was moved behind the plate while Jocketty was the farm director. Francisco would be the perfect target for this project IMO, as he has a very strong arm, and a promising bat that needs significant time to develop (and hopefully gain some discipline.) Teach him the position in the Arizona Fall League, let him play all winter in the Dominican, and then start back up again in Sarasota next season. If he picks the position up well, he could be in Chattanooga by the break. Mesoraco should probably begin next year in Dayton again anyway, as all reports seem to imply that he needs some serious work on his defense (and his offense, while not terrible, was no great shakes there either.) Zach Stewart has been shooting up the charts as he shoots up the system and continues to dominate. Dallas Buck is an interesting guy to watch, as he had Grade A talent before getting injured, and hopefully comes back from TJ surgery more like Francisco Liriano than Brandon Claussen. If he does, he will rise fast up the list.

SEPTEMBER CALL-UPS

While minor league staples like Chris Dickerson, Adam Rosales, and Ryan Hanigan are already up with the big club, I would like to see the following guys up in the next two weeks, as they should be in strong consideration for a roster spot come next spring:

1. Josh Roenicke- should have been called up weeks ago. Will get called up especially if Affeldt and/or Weathers are traded.
2. Shaun Cumberland- with the departures of Dunn and Griffey, the outfield should be an open casting call. Give Cumberland, Dorn, Dickerson, and maybe even Stubbs (depending on how he finishes the Louisville season) a chance to prove they can handle a big league role.
3. Daniel Dorn- alternate starts in LF between him and Cumberland (realizing they're both lefties, it's not really a platoon.) While he can't hit lefties, he hits righties probably better than anyone in the entire system.
4. Daniel Herrera- he had a nice debut earlier in the summer. Let's see if he can maintain his success in the bigs.
5. Tyler Pelland- nothing left to prove in the minors, his time has come. Let's see who can win the battle between him and Herrera to be the other lefty in the pen alongside Bray next year (assuming Affeldt doesn't accept arbitration.)
6. Danny Richar- can he fill in at SS in the bigs? There's only one way to find out. The roster won't be big enough for him and Janish (and Rosales) next year, so let's see what we got for Griffey.

Thoughts?

camisadelgolf
08-18-2008, 01:26 AM
Cool. I see that you have a few guys who may project to be MLB backups (Richar, Tatum), but there's no mention of Wilkin Castillo. What do you think of him?

Benihana
08-18-2008, 01:31 AM
Castillo would probably be in the 25-30 range on the list, not because I like him all that much (I don't think he has shown any real ability to hit once he reaches the major league level) but because of his defense. I think he should see some time in Cincinnati next year, possibly in a platoon situation with Hanigan- unless the Reds can acquire another catcher in the offseason. I would say Castillo and Tatum are pretty comparable at this point, although I might give the slight edge to Castillo. Regardless, I'm not drooling over any of the three you mentioned.

chicoruiz
08-18-2008, 09:04 AM
Good job- I might add Junior Arias to the "keep an eye on" list.

And how many of your potential September callups are actually on the 40-man? I'm thinking we might see someone like Belisle called up to eat lost-cause innings (of which there will be quite a few) just because he's on the 40-man.

princeton
08-18-2008, 09:18 AM
The guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Drew Stubbs of course

I'd say that the guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Chris Dickerson

a couple of weeks back, I looked at the August schedule thought that it'd be a great time to bring up a young bat because the competition didn't look like much, and I think that has helped Dickerson, which is terrific. it's easier to realize one's full potential quickly if one has early success. It's not a bad time to bring up Danny Dorn, but Dorn doesn't have to go on the major league roster for more than a year so the Reds may pass

The competition actually looks tougher in September. Usually things like this are in reverse. September may be the tougher test for once.

TRF
08-18-2008, 10:20 AM
I'd say that the guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Chris Dickerson

a couple of weeks back, I looked at the August schedule thought that it'd be a great time to bring up a young bat because the competition didn't look like much, and I think that has helped Dickerson, which is terrific. it's easier to realize one's full potential quickly if one has early success. It's not a bad time to bring up Danny Dorn, but Dorn doesn't have to go on the major league roster for more than a year so the Reds may pass

The competition actually looks tougher in September. Usually things like this are in reverse. September may be the tougher test for once.

100% agree. Plus there wasn't too much impressive about Stubbs in AA.

ChatterRed
08-18-2008, 11:18 AM
I'm not that high on Stubbs.

After listening to the Louisville Bats announcer on Lance's show a week or so back, I believe the Reds are manipulating Roenicke's numbers to make him look good as trade bait. The announcer (can't remember his name, but he has been up with the Reds and done a few games) said the Bats haven't put Roenicke in any games with men already on base. He only comes in at the beginning of an inning. He also said he gets by alot on his fastball, which we all know doesn't fly in the majors as well (Ask Homer Bailey). Needs a better complimentary pitch. Basically said he felt the Reds/Bats have been protecting him and that his numbers look better because of it. I thought it was interesting because I had the same desire to see him with the big league club until I heard this interview.

HokieRed
08-18-2008, 11:20 AM
If he's being used as a closer, being brought in at the beginning of innings is precisely the way he should be used.

mace
08-18-2008, 11:21 AM
In the "eye on" category, I'd add:

David Sappelt, OF, Billings
Tony Brown, OF, Billings
Mace Thurman, RP, Day
Chris Heisey, OF, Chatt
Shea Snowden, SP, GCL
Scott Carroll, SP, Sar
Jeremy Horst, SP, Day
Aguido Gonzalez, RP, Day
Ramon Geronimo, RP, Chatt

I would include Jordan Smith but couldn't find him on a roster. Anybody know the reason for that?

Anybody ever find out why Snowden is suspended?

I have a feeling that Heisey might be the most underrated player in the system, or close to it.

ChatterRed
08-18-2008, 11:21 AM
If he's being used as a closer, being brought in at the beginning of innings is precisely the way he should be used.

You had to hear the interview. When asked by Lance if Roenicke was ready for the Big Leagues, the announcer didn't think so. He specifically said he felt the Reds/Bats were protecting Roenicke for some reason.........

Just saying what I heard. It changed my mind about the kid. Doesn't sound ready.

ChatterRed
08-18-2008, 11:22 AM
In the "eye on" category, I'd add:

David Sappelt, OF, Billings
Tony Brown, OF, Billings
Mace Thurman, RP, Day
Chris Heisey, OF, Chatt
Shea Snowden, SP, GCL
Scott Carroll, SP, Sar
Jeremy Horst, SP, Day
Aguido Gonzalez, RP, Day
Ramon Geronimo, RP, Chatt

I would include Jordan Smith but couldn't find him on a roster. Anybody know the reason for that?

Anybody ever find out why Snowden is suspended?

I have a feeling that Heisey might be the most underrated player in the system, or close to it.

I agree. Especially on Thurman, Gonzalez, Snowden and Geronimo.

RedlegJake
08-18-2008, 12:24 PM
Good list overall. Personally I'd lift Sean Henry to a B, I think he's going to be better than Cumberland and better with a bat than Stubbs or Valaika for that matter. IF Sean can handle CF in the majors (I think he can) he's a very, very good prospect. If he is considered only a corner outfielder then his stars dims to a really good 4th OFer. He has played CF but Cumberland, Stubbs and Heisey have kept him in the corner more than center to this point. So - Doug, OBM, anyone who has seen him in person - CAN Sean play CF regularly? Has his role mostly in LF been because of Stubbs and Cumberland and now Heisey or is it because he lacks the arm for CF? I know he has speed so I have to wonder about his arm.

lollipopcurve
08-18-2008, 12:25 PM
I can't believe Heisey has been omitted from all lists intentionally. He's easily grade B.

Daryl Thompson, with his shoulder issues re-emerging, is far from grade A, in my opinion.

RedlegJake
08-18-2008, 12:27 PM
I can't believe Heisey has been omitted from all lists intentionally. He's easily grade B.

Daryl Thompson, with his shoulder issues re-emerging, is far from grade A, in my opinion.

I have to agree. Health pushes Darryl down a notch.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2008, 12:30 PM
Sorry Jake, I've never seen Henry play in person so I can't really answer your question.:)

As for Roenicke, he's still fairly new at pitching so his secondary pitches are still raw. Baseball America says Roenicke throws a nasty cutter in addition to his fastball so that's probably why many think he relies only on his fastball right now. There was an article a while back that said he's been working on a breaking ball and it seemed to be getting better. I'd like to see him in the majors after the AAA playoffs. I watched him pitch on TV in spring training and came away very impressed. The more he pitches the better he will become IMO due to his lack of experience on the mound.

dougdirt
08-18-2008, 01:14 PM
Jake,
I haven't seen Henry play in person yet (tough to get to Chattanooga or Sarasota from Cincinnati), but from what I have heard from those who see him a lot, he can play CF but its not on par with a guy like Stubbs/Dickerson. I look at him as a Ryan Freel type with a little less defense, little more power and probably not the base running mistakes.

Benihana
08-18-2008, 01:32 PM
I'd say that the guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Chris Dickerson


Yes but if you'll notice, Dickerson is on the big club now and thus doesn't really merit mentioning in the top prospects list on the minor league forum. Of the guys on this list, Stubbs has been the most interesting to follow in the last couple weeks.

As far as Chris Heisey goes, I don't really see what all the fuss is about. Too me, he's a poor man's Dickerson or Stubbs. He's 23 in high A ball, and he's never hit double digit home runs. Yes he takes a lot of walks and steals a lot of bases, but at a certain point, pitchers are going to come after him. Furthermore, I'm not sure his glove is in the same league as Dickerson or Stubbs.

Grande Donkey
08-18-2008, 01:42 PM
Heisey is a 23 year old in AA and his glove might not be as good as Stubbs but it is close.

Benihana
08-18-2008, 01:57 PM
I can't believe Heisey has been omitted from all lists intentionally. He's easily grade B.

Daryl Thompson, with his shoulder issues re-emerging, is far from grade A, in my opinion.

Thompson I actually agree, he should be bumped down to a Grade B due to his health issues. But Heisey- seriously? You would take him over Cumberland, Dorn, and Henry? At best, he's a poor man's Felix Pie.

Redman15
08-18-2008, 02:17 PM
Heisey is a 23 year old in AA and his glove might not be as good as Stubbs but it is close.

His glove is as good as Stubbs. Chris reminds me of Freel. Plays 110% all the time and has no fear and is + defensively.Chris has a little more power than Stubbs and strikes out less.Stubbs has a better arm and is + defensively. They are about equal in the stolen base category.

Betterread
08-18-2008, 02:24 PM
Good list Benihaha.
I would have only one A player - Alonso
I don't see Frazier and Thompson as A prospects. They don't perform that way and they don't project to perform that way. While I would rate them higher than Soto and Lotzkar, these two young prospects have much higher ceilings. Now they have a lot of development and maturing to do to reach those ceilings, but if they keep up the work ethic, they could be special.
Under players to watch I would add: LHP Valiquette, RHP Young, LHP Howell (the 2008 draftee). All three are great arms that need time to develop.

lollipopcurve
08-18-2008, 02:36 PM
But Heisey- seriously? You would take him over Cumberland, Dorn, and Henry? At best, he's a poor man's Felix Pie.

Yep, seriously. Much better all around game than Dorn. Better defensively than Henry or Cumberland because he's a legit CF, supposedly. Very effective base stealer. If you follow the box scores on a daily basis, you may have noticed how remarkably consistent he's been -- he does not run especially hot or cold. I like that quality a lot. His walk rate is much improved this season -- you like to see that kind of improvement. 31 2B, 7 3B & 7 HR is the FSL shows he's no Judy at the plate.

I've become a big fan of this kid. He has no clear weaknesses in his game, he's playing at age-appropriate level, more or less (especially for a kid coming out of Messiah College), and his intangibles are reportedly off the charts. We'll see if he fades at AA/AAA, so the jury is certainly still out, but I like his chances.

princeton
08-18-2008, 03:01 PM
Good list Benihaha.
I would have only one A player - Alonso.

if that.

I see a lot that are a bit short of being great prospects. But, on the positive side, I see a LOT that are a bit short of being great prospects

Ga_Red
08-18-2008, 06:01 PM
I ran Beni's current prospect ranking by a major league scout and asked him to provide his unofficial pov on Reds
prospects, currently.

here's his take:

**************************
From: *********
Date: 08/18/08 09:31:53
To: Ga_Red
Subject: Re: Update us

Lotzkar and Soto both A's.
Viola a B. Fischer,Lecure and Lutz should be on top 25.Henry and Turner too high; Pelland off; Jordan Smith is a B. Saw Smith in Chat-Fb-90-95, cb and Ch.
Don't forget Rosales and Janish.

1.Alonso Yonder -1B
2 Todd Frazier- LF
3 Neftali Soto- 3B
4 Kyle Lotzkar- RHP
5 Darryl Thompson-RHP
6 Josh Roenicke- RHP
7 Drew Stubbs- CF
8 Chris Vailiaka- 2B
9 Juan Francisco-3B
10 Devin Mesouraca- C
11 Yorman Rodriquez-CF
12 Juan Doran- RF
13 Travis Wood-LHP
14 Jordan Smith-RHP
15 Ramon Geronimo-RHP
16 Zach Stewart- RHP
17 Zac Cozart- SS
18 Scott Carroll-RHP
19 Carlos Fischer- RHP
20 Pedro Viola-LHP
21 Evan Hilebrandt- RHP
22 Philip Valiquette- LHP
23 Josh Ravin- RHP
24 Shaun Cumberland- OF
25 Chris Heisey- OF
26 Sam Lecure- RHP
27 Justin Reed- OF
28 Derik Lutz- RHP
29 Matt Maloney- LHP
30 Tony Brown- OF
31 Ben Jukich- LHP
32 Robert Manuel- RHP
33 Craig Tatum- C
34 Danny Dorn- OF
35 Sean Watson- RHP
36 Rafael Gonzales- RHP
37 Danny Herrera- LHP
38 Brandon Waring- 3B
39 keltivious Jones-OF
40 Justin Turner- 2B





---------------------------------------------------------
From: Ga_Red@Bigfoot.com
Date: Mon, 18 Aug 2008 01:56:55 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
To: ********
Subject: Re: Update us




Greetings *****,

Tx for your quick get back!

The following was posted on the minor league forum at Redszone.com.

The guy who posted this is not a pro, as far as I know. I thot his A+ for Yonder, premature, Roeneike, Dorn, Soto and Buddy Herrera too low,etc.

If you're of a mind to, post your ratings beside his, tx.

Ga_Red

==================================
From Redszone Minor League Forum

GRADE A

1. Yonder Alonso, 21, 1B, A+
2. Todd Frazier, 22, 1B/3B/LF, A+
3. Daryl Thompson, 22, RHP, AAA

GRADE B

4. Neftali Soto, 19, 3B/LF, A
5. Drew Stubbs, 23, CF, AAA
6. Chris Valaika, 22, 2B, AA
7. Josh Roenicke, 25, RHP, AAA
8. Kyle Lotzkar, 19, RHP, A (injured)
9. Devin Mesoraco, 20, C, A
10. Juan Francisco, 21, 1B/RF/C??, A+
11. Zach Stewart, 21, RHP, A+

GRADE C

12. Zach Cozart, 22, SS, A
13. Travis Wood, 21, LHP, A+
14. Matt Maloney, 24, LHP, AAA
15. Shaun Cumberland, 23, OF, AAA
16. Daniel Dorn, 23, OF, AA
17. Sean Henry, 22, OF, AA
18. Justin Turner, 23, 2B, AA
19. Brandon Waring, 22, 3B, A
20. Dallas Buck, 23, RHP, A+

ON THE RADAR

21. Sam LeCure, 23, RHP, AA
22. Daniel Herrera, 23, LHP, AAA
23. Tyler Pelland, 23, LHP, AAA
24. Sean Watson, 23, RHP, AA
25. Pedro Viola, 24, LHP, AA

KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to rate)

Yorman Rodriguez 16 OF R
Juan Duran 16 OF R
Alex Oliveras 18 OF R
Evan Hildenbrant 19 RHP R
Alex Buchholz 21 2B R (injured)

OTHER NAMES TO KNOW (no longer prospect status, but don't forget about)

Homer Bailey 22, RHP AAA
Micah Owings 25, RHP/OF?? AAA
Carlos Fisher 25, RHP AAA
Ben Jukich 25, LHP AA
Robert Manuel 25, RHP AA
Danny Richar 25, 2B/SS AAA
Craig Tatum 25, C AAA

The guy to watch in the last couple weeks has been Drew Stubbs of course, who rocketed all the way up to AAA after an impressive month in Chattanooga. Perhaps helped by the hole on the major league team, Stubbs figures to get an invite to big league camp in the spring with a legitimate shot to make the team, possibly even as a starter or at least in a platoon situation with Chris Dickerson. Additionally, the signings of Alonso and Rodriguez, coupled with the Dunn and Griffey trades, have boosted both the overall talent level as well as the depth of the system. Alonso and Owings should both be significant parts of the major league team by the end of 2009, while Richar should be a nice utility guy off the bench. Rodriguez, much like Juan Duran, has an astronomically high ceiling but is also several years away from being a factor. He was heralded as one of the best outfielders ever to sign out of Venezuela, hopefully he lives up to even half of that billing. Ditto for Duran out of the Dominican. Finally, I mentioned this in another thread last week, but I'd really like to see the Reds try Juan Francisco behind the plate. Many impressive names at the big league level started out as infielders in the minors, including All-Stars Russell Martin and Geovany Soto, as well as former All-Star Terry Steinbach, who was moved behind the plate while Jocketty was the farm director. Francisco would be the perfect target for this project IMO, as he has a very strong arm, and a promising bat that needs significant time to develop (and hopefully gain some discipline.) Teach him the position in the Arizona Fall League, let him play all winter in the Dominican, and then start back up again in Sarasota next season. If he picks the position up well, he could be in Chattanooga by the break. Mesoraco should probably begin next year in Dayton again anyway, as all reports seem to imply that he needs some serious work on his defense (and his offense, while not terrible, was no great shakes there either.) Zach Stewart has been shooting up the charts as he shoots up the system and continues to dominate. Dallas Buck is an interesting guy to watch, as he had Grade A talent before getting injured, and hopefully comes back from TJ surgery more like Francisco Liriano than Brandon Claussen. If he does, he will rise fast up the list.

SEPTEMBER CALL-UPS

While minor league staples like Chris Dickerson, Adam Rosales, and Ryan Hanigan are already up with the big club, I would like to see the following guys up in the next two weeks, as they should be in strong consideration for a roster spot come next spring:

1. Josh Roenicke- should have been called up weeks ago. Will get called up especially if Affeldt and/or Weathers are traded.
2. Shaun Cumberland- with the departures of Dunn and Griffey, the outfield should be an open casting call. Give Cumberland, Dorn, Dickerson, and maybe even Stubbs (depending on how he finishes the Louisville season) a chance to prove they can handle a big league role.
3. Daniel Dorn- alternate starts in LF between him and Cumberland (realizing they're both lefties, it's not really a platoon.) While he can't hit lefties, he hits righties probably better than anyone in the entire system.
4. Daniel Herrera- he had a nice debut earlier in the summer. Let's see if he can maintain his success in the bigs.
5. Tyler Pelland- nothing left to prove in the minors, his time has come. Let's see who can win the battle between him and Herrera to be the other lefty in the pen alongside Bray next year (assuming Affeldt doesn't accept arbitration.)
6. Danny Richar- can he fill in at SS in the bigs? There's only one way to find out. The roster won't be big enough for him and Janish (and Rosales) next year, so let's see what we got for Griffey.

***********************************

Redman15
08-18-2008, 06:49 PM
Why no Henry? Is this Scout a Reds scout?

Benihana
08-18-2008, 06:50 PM
Very interesting, thanks Ga_Red.

FWIW, I wasn't giving Alonso (or Frazier) an A+, I was noting that that (appears to be- in Alonso's case) their current minor league level- high A ball.

OnBaseMachine
08-18-2008, 08:00 PM
I agree with him on Lotzkar and Soto. Before Lotzkar was injured he was holding opponents in the Midwest League to a .215 average against and had 50 strikeouts in 37.2 innings. Keep in mind that he's only 18 years old and facing older competition. He's got potentially three plus pitches and a great pitchers frame at 6'4" 200. As for Soto, he's OPSing .912 between Billings and Dayton and 32 extra base hits in only 230 atbats. He's only 19 and has has great bat speed. As his wiry frame fills out he should develop big time power. He's got a chance to be a star IMO.

RED VAN HOT
08-18-2008, 08:05 PM
Nice lists.

I am also in the Heisey camp. His progress seems to have been solid, but not spectacular. Thus, he has not been able to move multiple levels each year. I believe he would make a great LF platoon with Dorn. When not starting against LHP, Heisey would be available for defensive replacement or pinch runner. Maybe its just me, but I love close, low scoring games that can be decided by great defense and base running. All the emphasis on HRs in the steroid era has bordered on the obscene.

Among Dickerson, Stubbs, Cumberland, Bruce, Dorn, Heisey, and Henry, the Reds have an opportunity to assemble an excellent outfield of platooning players who are all either average or plus defenders. It will probably take until 2010 to sort this out and determine whom to keep. Performance in AAA next year will go a long way toward doing that.

I noticed that the board is still high on Travis Wood even though he has taken his lumps at CHA. I have not seen him pitch, but my suspicion is that his velocity is down. Can someone who has seen him recently comment on his problems?

mace
08-18-2008, 09:25 PM
While we're all being so agreeable . . . I, too, would put Soto and Lotzkar atop the list -- possibly even ahead of Alonso, based on age and professional experience. I'm not as crazy about Frazier as some are but have no particular quarrels with him.

And I'm fervently hoping that the Reds pursue a young platoon, or two, in the outfield. Jocketty (or was it LaRussa?) got a lot of mileage out of unspectacular Cardinal outfielders doing that. And the pieces very much seem to be there in Cincinnati, with the names mentioned above. Hairston could fit into that mix as well. (I wouldn't platoon Bruce, however. He plays every day.) I tend to think that teams these days are largely neglecting the benefits of platooning. Along those lines, I think that even Griffey and Dunn would have been different players if used in platoons.

mace
08-18-2008, 09:41 PM
Interesting that there's been nary a mention of the likes of Adam Rosales, Ramon Ramirez or Paul Janish. I suppose that's a pretty nice commentary.

Mario-Rijo
08-19-2008, 05:11 AM
I also agree on Soto and Lotzkar they have that top of the line talent, now what they do with it from here out is the question. I really like Soto's chances as I have stated ad nauseum so I won't go into it again. Lotzkar who knows what with the injury and the simple fact he is so young and still far away developmentally. But I have the highest of hopes for them both obviously.

On Heisey, I agree he has no major weaknesses. However that's a double edged sword because I also don't believe he has any major strengths. What I mean by that is I think he's got average all around talent and very good intangibles. His only major tool is speed and I don't think it's quite at a Freel level, although as Doug stated he uses his speed better than Freel does. I think his ceiling is as a poor man's Denorfia, which makes him a real good 5th OF/pr/late inning defender who should give you a solid AB and won't be a complete stiff up there.

The only problem I have with the list is that Francisco is still on it. The hurdle he has before him is a monstrous one and I would venture to guess that less than 1% of ballplayers with that specific issue never even make it to AAA let alone to the bigs. Yes he has some serious talent and he has time but does he have the patience and discipline to make his weakness just palatable, I don't know but I wouldn't bet on it. Just my 2 cents but I have mostly written him off as nothing more than trade bait. Here's to hoping he proves me wrong.

1 Tool Player
08-19-2008, 07:03 AM
I think his ceiling is as a poor man's Denorfia


That's quite a poor man...

SoTxRedsFan
08-19-2008, 08:13 PM
That's quite a poor man...
:beerme:

AmarilloRed
08-20-2008, 01:55 AM
I really think Logan Parker should rate some sort of mention. He really is turning it up a notch in Sarasota. It would say a lot about the depth of our farm system if he cannot be mentioned a top prospect.

Patrick Bateman
08-20-2008, 02:24 AM
I'd have Buck about 10 places higher, but otherwise I think you got things right. Nice work Beni.

Kingspoint
08-20-2008, 03:30 AM
I do believe that Henry will give us more than Mesoraco or Stubbs ever will. The only problem is, he can't play Center and will arrive in the bigs just before Alonzo, and then there's Votto, Henry, and Alonzo to play 2 spots.

The REDS have some juicy problems in their immediate future....more ready-talent than spots to play people.

kpresidente
08-24-2008, 03:55 PM
Why doesn't Danny Dorn get more credit? The guy has a .967 OPS in AA @ 23 years old. What does it take to get a A rating?

redhawk61
08-24-2008, 03:58 PM
Why doesn't Danny Dorn get more credit? The guy has a .967 OPS in AA @ 23 years old. What does it take to get a A rating?
be able to hit lefty's...

camisadelgolf
08-24-2008, 03:58 PM
Why doesn't Danny Dorn get more credit? The guy has a .967 OPS in AA @ 23 years old. What does it take to get a A rating?

In a nutshell, he was a late-round draft pick, doesn't have much speed, plays poor defense, and can't hit left-handed pitching. Still, there's a lot to like. He's on pretty much everyone's sleeper list.

kpresidente
08-24-2008, 03:59 PM
be able to hit lefty's...

Yonder Alonso has an A rating.

*BaseClogger*
08-24-2008, 04:29 PM
Ramon Ramirez deserves a mention somewhere?

And I agree that Thompson remains a B prospect for now...

gedred69
08-24-2008, 04:34 PM
In a nutshell, he was a late-round draft pick, doesn't have much speed, plays poor defense, and can't hit left-handed pitching. Still, there's a lot to like. He's on pretty much everyone's sleeper list.

I asked some time ago of the Minors guru Doug, about Dorn's defense. His answer was that Dorn would definately be an up-grade from Dunn. Extrapolate his numbers for a full season, and he's a 35HR, .265-.285 avg. guy. He's been high on my list for the last 2 years. He did so well in Billings, that he skipped Dayton last year to Sarasota, ending up hot at Chattanooga. He definately has a problem with LH pitching, but if he hadn't been injured early this season, he'd be at Louisville by now, knocking on the Reds' front door.

mth123
08-24-2008, 04:39 PM
I'm high on Dorn as well. I have him 7th behind Frazier, Alonso, Soto, Roenicke, Lotzkar and Thompson. I think he's a legit lefty platoon power threat and that isn't a bad thing to have in the system with a number of cheap years ahead.

kpresidente
08-24-2008, 04:45 PM
Is he really 6'2" - 190?

If he is, you almost have to think he can add some more meat to that frame for even more power, no?

BigRed07
08-24-2008, 04:48 PM
In a nutshell, he was a late-round draft pick, doesn't have much speed, plays poor defense, and can't hit left-handed pitching. Still, there's a lot to like. He's on pretty much everyone's sleeper list.

Dorn plays great defense. He gets as good of jumps on balls as Stubbs or Heisey.
He runs good routes to the ball and covers a lot of ground.
He was a 2006 CWS all tourney outfielder because of his great defense. Danny Dorn
can play defense ans has legit power and continues to be under valued. He should be
playing in AAA over Cumberland. He also hit his 22 bomb today.

mth123
08-30-2008, 11:05 AM
OK. I have a list that always is changing. I'm finally convinced that Stubbs is a good prospect now. I excluded Bailey and Dickerson as ineligible and many of the rookie league guys were not considered though I rounded out the list with a couple that have most caught my attention. Not many star level guys IMO but a lot of depth (hopefully some will be dealt for a major league player or two).




Rank Name POS H/P 09 Age 09 Lvl Comment
1 Todd Frazier 3B?? R 23 AAA Good All Around Bat
2 Yonder Alonso 1B L 22 AA?? Mid Line-up Force
3 Neftali Soto 3B R 20 A+ Hit Machine
4 Josh Roenicke RP R 26 MLB Power Set-up guy
5 Drew Stubbs OF R 24 AAA Useful all around OF with glove, showing more pop as advancing
6 Kyle Lotzkar SP R 19 A+ Future #2 if health holds
7 Daniel Dorn OF L 24 AAA Platoon Power Bat
8 Zach Cozart SS R 23 A+ Alex Gonzalez, the sequel???
9 Daryl Thompson SP R 23 AAA Mid Rotation Starter??
10 Devin Mesoraco C R 20 A+ Needs to be able to stick at C
11 Sean Henry OF R 23 AAA RH platoon Bat, 4th OF
12 Zach Stewart RP R 22 AA Power Set-up guy
13 Chris Valaika 2B R 23 AAA Needs to stick in MI on D for bat to be useful
14 Juan Francisco 3B?? S 21 AA Big power but could stall, prime trade bait
15 Mace Thurman RP L 22 A+ Lefty Set-up man
16 Carlos Fisher RP R 26 AAA Multi Inning Middle Man
17 Brandon Waring 3B R 23 A+ Power, better OBP than Francisco, less upside
18 Chris Heisey OF R 24 AA 4th OF
19 S. Cumberland OF L 24 AAA 4th or 5th OF, useful LH Bat
20 Matt Maloney SP L 25 AAA Back of Rotation LH
21 Dallas Buck SP R 24 AA Mid Rotation Starter
22 Adam Rosales IF R 26 AAA Super sub
23 Danny Herrera RP L 24 MLB Change of Pace LH, how long will it fool them?
24 Sean Watson RP R 23 AAA Power Set-up guy with control issues
25 Ramon Ramirez SP R 26 AAA Swing Man
26 Scott Carroll SP R 24 A+ Finesse guy, needs more K's but Back of Rotation Possibility
27 Sam Lecure SP R 25 AAA Back of Rotation Inning Eater
28 Ben Jukich SP L 26 AAA Lefty Long Man
29 Robert Manual RP R 25 AAA Results look good
30 Ryan Hanigan C R 28 MLB Ok so far. Still think he's probably a back-up
31 Logan Parker 1B L 24 AA Good bat but old for level, the next Ross Gload??
32 Jeremy Horst RP L 23 A+ High K Lefty with Grounders
33 Matthew Klinker SP R 24 A+ Needs to miss more bats
34 Paul Janish SS R 26 AAA Glove could carve out a career
35 Pedro Viola RP L 25 AAA Situational Lefty
36 Justin Turner 2B R 24 AAA AAAA Guy
37 Phil Valiquette RP L 22 AA Situational Lefty if he can make it
38 Joseph Krebs RP L 24 A+ Lefty with Grounders and some Ks.
39 Wilkin Castillo C S 24 MLB Versatility good or does it mean he's inadequate at C?
40 Travis Wood SP L 22 AA Boom or Bust in 2009, skeptical of little guys holding up
41 Tonys Gutierrez 1B L 25 AAA On Base Skills, will they translate without more POP, Hatte 2??
42 Terrell Young RP R 23 AA Good so far
43 Alex Smit SP L 23 AA Too Many Fly Balls??
44 Danny Richar IF L 25 AAA Suspect at this point
45 Josh Ravin SP? R 21 A- Big arm
46 Ramon Geronimo RP R 25 AA Good results, needs to advance
47 Craig Tatum C R 26 AAA Defensive Back-up at best
48 Tyler Pelland RP L 25 AAA Power lefty with no control
49 David Sappelt OF R 22 A Probably moves way up once he reaches full season ball
50 Alex Buchholz 2B R 21 A Probably moves way up once he reaches full season ball

camisadelgolf
08-30-2008, 11:19 AM
Cool list. I like some of the surprises.

Mace Thurman, Matt Klinker, Phil Valiquette, Terrell Young, and Dave Sappelt are a few guys I'm surprised to see.

RedEye
08-30-2008, 12:32 PM
Thanks for posting the list. I think I'd put Valaika a bit higher, definitely top 10. I thought scouts now say that his bat will play anywhere, not just in the MI. I think I'd also flip Yonder and Frazier, mostly because of upside.

lollipopcurve
08-30-2008, 12:51 PM
Because of injury issues, I think Thompson and Lotzkar are too high. I'd have Dorn, Cozart, Mesoraco and Roenicke several spots lower. Valaika, Heisey, Francisco higher.

mth123
08-30-2008, 02:02 PM
Because of injury issues, I think Thompson and Lotzkar are too high. I'd have Dorn, Cozart, Mesoraco and Roenicke several spots lower. Valaika, Heisey, Francisco higher.

Can't really argue much. After the top 3 there are a bunch of guys who could go anywhere between 4 and 15. I like Roenicke to be an 8th inning shut down guy like Joel Zumaya or Jonathon Broxton. I like Dorn as a LH platoon with power and patience. I think Cozart could be a starting SS with some power and plus defense. I gave those three the nod because I think they are more likely to be what we envision as opposed to the others. I've been dropping Mesoraco down but if he can stay at C he's pretty valuable as a trading chip at least.

I like Heisey a lot and have been moving him up from basically nowhere to the top 20 and he will climb some more if he keeps it up. I need to see more. I think Francisco is a guy who may stall as he moves up the ladder. At best I see him as Pedro Feliz (which is OK for a prospect). Valaika strikes me as a .750ish OPS guy in the big leagues and his glove will be what makes him or breaks him. If he can play good 2B, he'll be valuable. If he is a liability there or worse yet has to be moved to a corner, he becomes a replacement level guy IMO. Francisco and Valaika would be the top two prospects on my list of guys to trade for help at other positions.

You may be right about Lotzkar and Thompson. I'm holding them high until I see how they do next year.

HokieRed
08-30-2008, 03:07 PM
By far the most important omission, IMO, is Evan Hildenbrandt.

camisadelgolf
08-30-2008, 03:09 PM
mth123, if there's one player from your list that I really disagree with you on, it would have to be Sean Henry. I realize that his numbers have been top notch, but with his small frame, I just don't see how he could have enough of an impact at the Major League level to warrant being the #11 prospect in the organization. I think he'd make a good reserve outfielder who could OPS in the .700s, but I wouldn't feel right if I listed him immediately after Devin Mesoraco, a number one pick out of high school who has been impressive with the bat as a catcher.

PuffyPig
08-30-2008, 03:14 PM
After listening to the Louisville Bats announcer on Lance's show a week or so back, I believe the Reds are manipulating Roenicke's numbers to make him look good as trade bait. The announcer (can't remember his name, but he has been up with the Reds and done a few games) said the Bats haven't put Roenicke in any games with men already on base. He only comes in at the beginning of an inning.



That's no way to manipulate a relievers numbers. Actually, it's just the opposite.

Runners on base make no difference really, as they don't count against you if the score anyway. And since you always have a chance at a DP, having runners on abse (belonging to others) actually increases your chance of having a better ERA. You can get two outs with one batter without risk of that runner effecting your ERA>

Starting a releiver at the beginning of an inning (as opposed to with 1 our 2 outs) also increases his chances of giving up a run. it's much easier to get 1 or 2 outs without giving up a run that 3 outs.

So, starting Josh at the start of an inning with no runner on base increases the chances of him giving up runs on all accounts.

dougdirt
08-30-2008, 03:18 PM
MTH, I just can't buy a reliever being that high on the list. Relievers impact on the game is so minimal that even the best of the best aren't as valuable as an every day league average player. With that said, why is Roenicke so much higher than Zach Stewart? They are very similar players, except Stewart is much younger.

camisadelgolf
08-30-2008, 03:24 PM
By far the most important omission, IMO, is Evan Hildenbrandt.

Good call. He's been very impressive. Shea Snowden was robbed, too. I would also like to say that Justin Reed should be added.

And what's with leaving out Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez? Because they're so young?

Some others guys I would consider: Derrik Lutz (good stuff; I wish someone would explain where his command went this year), Byron Wiley (absolutely mashing the ball in Billings), Andrew Bowman (a real sleeper around here; his numbers have been terrible, but he has a lot of potential), Tony Brown (nice power), Cody Puckett (looks kind of like a Justin Turner type), Tzu-Kai Chiu (very good control; left-handed starter who has battled injury this year), Sean Conner (has good potential but is struggling this year; maybe it's an adjustment period thing), Alex Oliveras (good tools and appears to be putting them together after last year's terrible start).

mth123
08-30-2008, 03:46 PM
By far the most important omission, IMO, is Evan Hildenbrandt.

Had Hildenbrandt on there and chose to exclude guys not in full season leagues. I added Buchholz and Sappelt at the end to round out to 50. I agree that Hildenbrandt is a guy to watch and when he gets there he could be a force. I should have exlcuded Ravin too, but he did have some time at Dayton and has been around a little longer.

mth123
08-30-2008, 04:00 PM
MTH, I just can't buy a reliever being that high on the list. Relievers impact on the game is so minimal that even the best of the best aren't as valuable as an every day league average player. With that said, why is Roenicke so much higher than Zach Stewart? They are very similar players, except Stewart is much younger.

I've never agreed with this. Nasty shut down type relievers have a huge effect. The 1990 Season was basically a championship that belonged to the bullpen for the most part. Rijo was a stud at the end, and Davis, Hatcher and O'Niell were heroes in the play-offs, but Dibble, Charlton and Myers were the keys to the wire to wire season. The Big Red Machine wasn't known for its pitching, but the staffs were always near the top of the league with only Don Gullett a true top starter. The others were successful because a strong deep pen enabled sparky to get them out of there with a lead after six. The 70s era starters have many wins thanks to guys like Carroll, Borbon, Eastwick, McEnaney, Hall, Granger, etc. We've also recently seen how much a season can be trashed by not having them. Teams (especially the Reds of this decade) seem to spend a lot of time, talent and money to acquire relievers that are the caliber that I believe that Roenicke, Stewart and maybe even Thurman can be. Its quite valuable to have them and not to have to go looking for them IMO. The main reason for the disparity in the rankings is because I think Roenicke is ready now (and has more market value as a result) while the others are guys that will need another year or two.

mth123
08-30-2008, 04:10 PM
mth123, if there's one player from your list that I really disagree with you on, it would have to be Sean Henry. I realize that his numbers have been top notch, but with his small frame, I just don't see how he could have enough of an impact at the Major League level to warrant being the #11 prospect in the organization. I think he'd make a good reserve outfielder who could OPS in the .700s, but I wouldn't feel right if I listed him immediately after Devin Mesoraco, a number one pick out of high school who has been impressive with the bat as a catcher.

I like Henry to be a useful platoon guy or 4th OF type for a long time. I think he is more likely to fill that role successfully than guys like Valaika or Francisco are to fill their roles. Guys that can hit and have other skills are rare. Henry looks more likely to carry it to the big leagues than many of the others. He's had more success at a higher level. Henry is fairly slight though at 154 pounds, so that may be a valid concern.

dougdirt
08-30-2008, 04:25 PM
I've never agreed with this. Nasty shut down type relievers have a huge effect. The 1990 Season was basically a championship that belonged to the bullpen for the most part. Rijo was a stud at the end, and Davis, Hatcher and O'Niell were heroes in the play-offs, but Dibble, Charlton and Myers were the keys to the wire to wire season. The Big Red Machine wasn't known for its pitching, but the staffs were always near the top of the league with only Don Gullett a true top starter. The others were successful because a strong deep pen enabled sparky to get them out of there with a lead after six. The 70s era starters have many wins thanks to guys like Carroll, Borbon, Eastwick, McEnaney, Hall, Granger, etc. We've also recently seen how much a season can be trashed by not having them. Teams (especially the Reds of this decade) seem to spend a lot of time, talent and money to acquire relievers that are the caliber that I believe that Roenicke, Stewart and maybe even Thurman can be. Its quite valuable to have them and not to have to go looking for them IMO. The main reason for the disparity in the rankings is because I think Roenicke is ready now (and has more market value as a result) while the others are guys that will need another year or two.

While I agree the Reds bullpen in 1990 was one of the big reasons they were as good as they were (to go along with 7 guys with 200+AB's of an OPS + of at least 104), it was because of the entire bullpen, not just one guy. An every day guy that plays defense and gets 4 PA every game is far and away more valuable to the success of a team than a single reliever, no matter how dominant. 600 PA of average offense and average defense is immensely better than 80-90 innings of 2.50 ERA baseball. A bullpen full of guys like that can certainly be a dominating force, but a single guy like that isn't close to being as valuable as an average positional player.

mth123
08-30-2008, 04:38 PM
While I agree the Reds bullpen in 1990 was one of the big reasons they were as good as they were, it was because of the entire bullpen, not just one guy. An every day guy that plays defense and gets 4 PA every game is far and away more valuable to the success of a team than a single reliever, no matter how dominant. 600 PA of average offense and average defense is immensely better than 80-90 innings of 2.50 ERA baseball. A bullpen full of guys like that can certainly be a dominating force, but a single guy like that isn't close to being as valuable as an average positional player.

Basically agree if you think the guy getting the 600 PA is going to be effective enough to be more than an interchangeable part. I think Frazier, Alonso and Soto will be effective in that way. I'm not convinced that any of the others are likely to make a bigger impact or be harder to replace than Roenicke will as an 8th inning guy. As I said, numbers 4 to 15 were all real close IMO and just about any order would be hard for me to argue with. In previous versions of the list I had Stubbs at number 4, Dorn at number 4, and before they were hurt Lotzkar and Thompson at number 4 for a time. In the end, I think Roenicke will be an impact reliever. The others could be useful players, but unless Lotzkar proves to be all the way healthy I'm not sure any will be impact players. I think Dorn and Stubbs are probably the most likely to be impact guys of the other non-pitchers.

kpresidente
08-30-2008, 05:08 PM
Well, the difference between Cordero, an average closer, and Brad Lidge is at least 6 wins. I think that's pretty significant. Imagine if Cueto had a 13-2 record.

Kc61
08-30-2008, 05:09 PM
I doubt that any major league GM or scout would put Francisco as low as he is on the list posted today (14th best prospect). Henry a better prospect than Francisco? No.
Francisco with a question mark at third base? No.

Guy got 34 doubles and 23 homers at age 21 in High A, had an outstanding range factor at third base and a cannon arm. The only Reds prospects possibly better right now are Alonso, Stubbs, Soto, and possibly Frazier (although Francisco - a year younger - stacked up well against Frazier at Sarasota this year).

Top five guys right now are Alonso, Stubbs, Soto, Frazier, Francisco.

Next five guys seem to me as: Lotzkar, Roenicke, Thompson, Valaika, Mesoraco (on reputation).

Also -- Travis Wood and Jordan Smith were advanced quickly to AA this year and took their lumps. Expect one or both to do well at that level next year. Both among top 20-25 Reds prospects.

mth123
08-30-2008, 06:22 PM
I doubt that any major league GM or scout would put Francisco as low as he is on the list posted today (14th best prospect). Henry a better prospect than Francisco? No.
Francisco with a question mark at third base? No.

Guy got 34 doubles and 23 homers at age 21 in High A, had an outstanding range factor at third base and a cannon arm. The only Reds prospects possibly better right now are Alonso, Stubbs, Soto, and possibly Frazier (although Francisco - a year younger - stacked up well against Frazier at Sarasota this year).

Top five guys right now are Alonso, Stubbs, Soto, Frazier, Francisco.

Next five guys seem to me as: Lotzkar, Roenicke, Thompson, Valaika, Mesoraco (on reputation).

Also -- Travis Wood and Jordan Smith were advanced quickly to AA this year and took their lumps. Expect one or both to do well at that level next year. Both among top 20-25 Reds prospects.


I hope you're right about Francisco. I see him as a guy who stalls in AA.

Wood is still young but he's had 2 bad years in a row. I have to see it first. He's very slight on the mound and that doesn't help.

Smith I like better. I missed him. I'd put him around 20 or so.

RedsManRick
08-30-2008, 06:24 PM
I've never agreed with this. Nasty shut down type relievers have a huge effect. The 1990 Season was basically a championship that belonged to the bullpen for the most part. Rijo was a stud at the end, and Davis, Hatcher and O'Niell were heroes in the play-offs, but Dibble, Charlton and Myers were the keys to the wire to wire season

I think people often conflate the role a guy is in with how well he does it. 300 IP a 2ish ERA is huge regardless of what role it's coming out of. Focus more on the great production and less about what position it's coming from. 70-80 IP of a 3.00 or less ERA is a big help to a team -- certainly more than 200 of a 4.75.

mth123
08-30-2008, 06:28 PM
I think people often conflate the role a guy is in with how well he does it. 300 IP a 2ish ERA is huge regardless of what role it's coming out of. Focus more on the great production and less about what position it's coming from. 70-80 IP of a 3.00 or less ERA is a big help to a team -- certainly more than 200 of a 4.75.

Agree. Using that team as an example, Rob Dibble was more valuable and harder to replace than Billy Hatcher. Though Hatcher played each day and did fairly well, Dibble was still the more valuable property,

mth123
08-30-2008, 07:04 PM
Francisco 21 at A+ .277/.303/.496/.799. Henry 22 at AA .290/.364/.464/.828. I know Sarasota inhibits offense a bit, but 30 Points of OPS at a higher level says something. More importantly, 60 points of OBP says a lot more. It suggests that more advanced pitching may have their way with the lower OBP guy. If Francisco carries those numbers to AA, I'd probably move him up.

redhawk61
08-30-2008, 07:11 PM
Francisco 21 at A+ .277/.303/.496/.799. Henry 22 at AA .290/.364/.464/.828. I know Sarasota inhibits offense a bit, but 30 Points of OPS at a higher level says something. More importantly, 60 points of OBP says a lot more. It suggests that more advanced pitching may have their way with the lower OBP guy. If Francisco carries those numbers to AA, I'd probably move him up.
I think Fransisco is going to have a HUGE year next year and I mean BIG! but I don't see the walk rate improving much. I think he is gonna produce a line, within the first 6 weeks cause he will be promoted to AAA after his start, of .330/.365/.550 .915 OPS

dougdirt
08-30-2008, 07:19 PM
Francisco 21 at A+ .277/.303/.496/.799. Henry 22 at AA .290/.364/.464/.828. I know Sarasota inhibits offense a bit, but 30 Points of OPS at a higher level says something. More importantly, 60 points of OBP says a lot more. It suggests that more advanced pitching may have their way with the lower OBP guy. If Francisco carries those numbers to AA, I'd probably move him up.

Maybe, but Henry really looks to top out as a smarter Ryan Freel type, while Francisco has so much more potential than that. Results matter, but in the minors they don't really mean as much as they do in the majors. You are in the minors to learn to play, not to put up the best numbers.

mth123
08-30-2008, 07:35 PM
Maybe, but Henry really looks to top out as a smarter Ryan Freel type, while Francisco has so much more potential than that. Results matter, but in the minors they don't really mean as much as they do in the majors. You are in the minors to learn to play, not to put up the best numbers.

Brandon Larson had much more potential than Ryan Freel. The likelihood of achieving it has to be part of the equation. Francisco's OBP suggests that more advanced picthers will eat him up. Francisco is yet to OPS .800.

dougdirt
08-30-2008, 08:06 PM
Brandon Larson had much more potential than Ryan Freel. The likelihood of achieving it has to be part of the equation. Francisco's OBP suggests that more advanced picthers will eat him up. Francisco is yet to OPS .800.
Certainly, but a 21 year old with a high ceiling and showing lots of tools in High A gets a nod over a 23 year old in AA that profiles as a decent 4th outfielder type. Francisco has some big issues to overcome with his plate discipline and he might round out the top 10 for me, but Sean Henry just doesn't have much upside to his game.

mth123
08-30-2008, 09:28 PM
Certainly, but a 21 year old with a high ceiling and showing lots of tools in High A gets a nod over a 23 year old in AA that profiles as a decent 4th outfielder type. Francisco has some big issues to overcome with his plate discipline and he might round out the top 10 for me, but Sean Henry just doesn't have much upside to his game.

Only if you think he can approach the ceiling. Since many do, its why I'd deal him for something else.

Kc61
08-30-2008, 09:57 PM
Brandon Larson had much more potential than Ryan Freel. The likelihood of achieving it has to be part of the equation. Francisco's OBP suggests that more advanced picthers will eat him up. Francisco is yet to OPS .800.


Brandon Larson was a college player and didn't start getting good minor league numbers until age 23. Francisco has had a big power year at High A ball at age 21.

Larson, by the way, isn't a good example of a high potential player who flamed out. Larson was overdrafted. He was slated as a later pick, but the Reds took him in the first round. (Those were the days when the Reds tried to save money in the draft.)

Francisco's OBP is lower simply as a function of lack of walks. You can call it plate discipline, OBP, OPS, whatever, the issue is the same. And it is an issue.

But the guy has nearly a .500 slugging PCT in over 500 at bats in a league for which he is quite young. That shows special ability.

Francisco's strikeout rate has improved significantly this year. That shows better pitch recognition. The next step is to walk a bit more, which should follow in the normal progression for such a hitter. We'll see.

As for Travis Wood, I don't think it's correct to say he's had two bad years in a row. Wood was hurt last year. This year, both he and Smith had very good years at Sarasota. Their struggles only came after they were both surprisingly promoted rather early in the year.

kpresidente
08-30-2008, 10:13 PM
I think the point about Francisco is that IF he can learn some plate discipline, he becomes a wonderful prospect, possibly an A prospect, given his power and defense.

But if he doesn't, I don't see how he has much of a future in baseball. Regardless of age, power or defense, you've got to put up better than a .300 OBP in single-A.

It seems understandable, then, that people have all over the place on their boards. You can learn plate discipline, but not everybody does, and I don't know how you can quantify that.

kpresidente
08-30-2008, 10:16 PM
Francisco's strikeout rate has improved significantly this year. That shows better pitch recognition.

Not necessarily. If a guy cuts down on Ks but doesn't walk more, it could be an indication that he's making better contact, which says nothing about his plate discipline.

I think you have to see the walks go up before you can say there's an improvement in plate discipline with any certainty.

mth123
08-30-2008, 10:30 PM
Not necessarily. If a guy cuts down on Ks but doesn't walk more, it could be an indication that he's making better contact, which says nothing about his plate discipline.

I think you have to see the walks go up before you can say there's an improvement in plate discipline with any certainty.

Its not just the walks. If the guy swings at everything, his power will suffer as well. He's got to make pitchers pitch to him. I guess he could be another Vlad, but I'd have to see it first.

dougdirt
08-31-2008, 12:33 AM
It comes to this with me for the Francisco/Henry debate.... Whats more likely of these two situations:

Francisco can learn to take an extra two or three walks a month....

or

Henry can surpass his ceiling that is limited by his physical stature (5'9 and 180 pounds)?

I am willing to place my money on Francisco learning to be a little bit more selective than a 23 year old adding some extra size to his frame that is already pretty maxed out.

RedlegJake
08-31-2008, 03:51 AM
Its not just the walks. If the guy swings at everything, his power will suffer as well. He's got to make pitchers pitch to him. I guess he could be another Vlad, but I'd have to see it first.

Guy who might be another Vlad is Soto. Guy hits everything. Excellent excellent contact skills and that is very hard to teach. Improve their eye, improve their patience, but if they don't make solid contact in the strikezone that's hard to teach. Soto hits just everything pitched near him. I'm really high on him, not so much on Francisco.

As for Henry - if he can become a "smart" Ryan Freel who stays healthy I'll take him every day as my 4th outfielder.

mth123
08-31-2008, 07:47 AM
Guy who might be another Vlad is Soto. Guy hits everything. Excellent excellent contact skills and that is very hard to teach. Improve their eye, improve their patience, but if they don't make solid contact in the strikezone that's hard to teach. Soto hits just everything pitched near him. I'm really high on him, not so much on Francisco.

As for Henry - if he can become a "smart" Ryan Freel who stays healthy I'll take him every day as my 4th outfielder.

Agree completely.