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OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 07:08 PM
Games are underway...

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 07:12 PM
The GCL Reds were postponed and Sarasota was off today. Everyone else plays.

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 07:13 PM
Louisville is down 1-0.

11larkin11
08-19-2008, 07:13 PM
Stubbs singles on an 0-2 pitch

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 07:13 PM
Stubbs singles in his first atbat.

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 07:14 PM
I am slow.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 07:16 PM
Stubbs then stole second base, his first in AAA and 31st overall.

11larkin11
08-19-2008, 07:16 PM
His hit according to Gameday was what he does best, a line drive.

11larkin11
08-19-2008, 07:27 PM
Maloney: K, single on GB to left, PO, fly out to Stubbs

I really wish Castillo was playing. He didn't catch yesterday, why not catch him today to get to know Maloney instead of Colina?

11larkin11
08-19-2008, 07:28 PM
Travis Wood with a 1-2-3 first on three GOs.

Redman15
08-19-2008, 07:30 PM
Heisey doubles Valaika singles 1-0 Looks.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 07:31 PM
Zach Cozart belts his 14th homerun to give Dayton a 2-1 lead after one inning.

Redman15
08-19-2008, 07:52 PM
Travis has retired 9 in a row. Looks lead 1-0.

Redman15
08-19-2008, 07:57 PM
Heisey triples to score Anderson. 2-0 Looks.
Gutierrez doubles in Heisey.3-0 Lookouts.

Redman15
08-19-2008, 08:30 PM
Travis has retired 15 in a row. Heisey made a great diving catch
according to Larry Ward.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 08:45 PM
Travis Wood is perfect through six innings with three strikeouts.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 09:01 PM
Wood retires the first batter in the 7th inning but then walks the next batter to break up the perfect game but then retires the next two.

7 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K

11larkin11
08-19-2008, 09:04 PM
Stubbs should have had a basehit but the RFer threw Richar out at second to make it a FC. He's 1-3 on the night.

Redman15
08-19-2008, 09:14 PM
Woodsy gives up a 2-out double. Great job Travis.
He had a No No thru 7 2/3. Outstanding job on the bump tonight.
Looks lead 3-1.

Redman15
08-19-2008, 09:18 PM
Stubby homers for the bats.

HBP
08-19-2008, 09:26 PM
Great to see Wood have a stellar outing. I had high hopes for him this year but he's been just horrible since the promotion to Chatt.

RedEye
08-19-2008, 09:32 PM
Stubby homers for the bats.

Maybe he just needed a promotion to AAA in order to wake up...

reds44
08-19-2008, 09:36 PM
Richar just doubled.

2-4 with a BB tonight.

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 09:42 PM
Stubbs is having a good night. RBI single, reaches third on a throwing error.

reds44
08-19-2008, 09:42 PM
Stubbs just hit an RBI single and went to 3rd on a error.

3-5 with 3 RBI tonight

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 09:44 PM
Adam Rosales with an RBI single. Bats down just 1.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 09:46 PM
Rosales is 3-for-5. He now has eight straight multi hit games and a nine game hitting streak.

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 09:49 PM
Alvin Colina drives in the tying run with a sac fly forLouisville.

reds44
08-19-2008, 09:50 PM
Bring Rosales up and let him play LF.

Grande Donkey
08-19-2008, 09:56 PM
Does Stubbs get a cup of coffee after AAA playoffs if he continues to hit?

PuffyPig
08-19-2008, 10:00 PM
Does Stubbs get a cup of coffee after AAA playoffs if he continues to hit?



I was kinda hoping that he might be brought up to play for the Reds in September after the playoffs.

He can drink his caffeinated beverages on his own time.....

RedEye
08-19-2008, 10:01 PM
Does Stubbs get a cup of coffee after AAA playoffs if he continues to hit?

Why not? He can't do worse than Patterson. Unless it would present a problem with his options later on, I say do it! I need reasons to watch this team.

LoganBuck
08-19-2008, 10:09 PM
Why not? He can't do worse than Patterson. Unless it would present a problem with his options later on, I say do it! I need reasons to watch this team.

At this point you have to shut him down. He is not on the forty man roster, and it is not necessary to protect him this winter, from the Rule 5 draft. Keep that spot open, until next year, for someone else.

redhawk61
08-19-2008, 10:10 PM
Stubbs just hit an RBI single and went to 3rd on a error.

3-5 with 3 RBI tonight
great news, It seems since moving out of the FSL that he has learned to minimize his slumps, could be b/c of his choking up on the bat, though I don;t know if he was doing that in the FSL or not.

Regardless he has been hitting a good number of doubles and lately is flashing some power...maybe we have something here

crazyredfan40
08-19-2008, 10:12 PM
I agree with the suggestion of Rosales in LF on the big club...

Put Dickerson in CF and don't let Patterson ever play for the Reds again...

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 10:14 PM
Bats are in the 10th after Stubbs flew out and Janish was thrown out at the plate to end the 9th inning.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 10:16 PM
Chattanooga won 3-1.

Heisey: 2-for-4 double, triple
Valaika: 1-for-4
Gutierrez: 2-for-4 double
Turner: 1-for-3 walk
Eymann: 1-for-3 walk

Wood: 8 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 3 K...no hitter through 7.2

Geronimo: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K for the save

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 10:20 PM
Dayton had a 9-6 lead in the 9th and Aguido Gonzalez allowed three runs to tie it up.

8-8 after 8 1/2.

Kahaulelio: 3-for-3 HBP
Cozart: 2-for-4 homerun (#14), 4 RBI
Soto: 2-for-5
Waring: 1-for-5 triple, 2 RBI
Mesoraco: 0-for-4 HBP
Phipps: 2-for-4
Reed: 3-for-4

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 10:21 PM
Bats win 9-8 on an Alvin Colina single that scores Drew T Anderson.

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 10:29 PM
Louisville won 9-8.

Richar: 2-for-4 two doubles, walk
Stubbs: 3-for-6 homerun (#7), 3 RBI, SB #31
Rosales: 3-for-6
Cumberland: 2-for-5 SB
Janish: 2-for-4 walk

Mallett: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

SirFelixCat
08-19-2008, 10:35 PM
I agree with the suggestion of Rosales in LF on the big club...

Put Dickerson in CF and don't let Patterson ever play for the Reds again...

I can't, for the life of me, understand why this hasn't happened yet?!?

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 10:39 PM
Drew Stubbs since leaving the FSL (141 PA) - .306/.376/.452 with 27 strikeouts and 13 walks.

Will M
08-19-2008, 10:44 PM
I can't, for the life of me, understand why this hasn't happened yet?!?

because the Reds management as a whole is dumb

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 10:52 PM
Dayton won 10-9.

Kahaulelio: 3-for-3 HBP
Cozart: 2-for-4 homerun (#14), 4 RBI
Soto: 2-for-5
Waring: 1-for-5 triple, 2 RBI
Mesoraco: 0-for-4 HBP
Phipps: 3-for-5
Reed: 3-for-4

OnBaseMachine
08-19-2008, 10:55 PM
Billings trails 4-3 in the 6th inning.

Puckett: 2-for-3 homerun (#6)
Stovall: 1-for-2
Wiley: 1-for-2
Mendez: 1-for-2

crazyredfan40
08-19-2008, 11:15 PM
Drew Stubbs since leaving the FSL (141 PA) - .306/.376/.452 with 27 strikeouts and 13 walks.

They just haven't figured him out yet...;)

redhawk61
08-19-2008, 11:39 PM
Drew Stubbs since leaving the FSL (141 PA) - .306/.376/.452 with 27 strikeouts and 13 walks.
I'm lovin' the 19% K rate..I can live with that

dougdirt
08-19-2008, 11:42 PM
I'm lovin' the 19% K rate..I can live with that

Me too. I love that its gotten lower at every level he has played at. That takes work and it shows he is able to make adjustments, and baseball is just that, a game of adjustments.

AmarilloRed
08-20-2008, 12:48 AM
Mustangs lose 5-3

Puckett:2-3, HR

Stovall: 2-4

Rojas:1-4, double

Bohana: 1 1/3 IP, 1 hit, 3 K

OnBaseMachine
08-20-2008, 01:31 AM
Wood throws 7 2/3 no-hit frames
Left-hander retires first 19 batters in a row in Lookouts' 3-1 win
By Alan Friedman / Special to MLB.com

After struggling for the past six weeks, Travis Wood came up with the performance he expected out of himself Tuesday.

Wood, who had dropped eight of his previous nine decisions, hurled 7 2/3 innings of no-hit ball to lead the Chattanooga Lookouts to a 3-1 victory over the visiting Jacksonville Suns.

The 21-year-old lefty ended up allowing a run on one hit, fanning three and walking two to pick up his first win since July 4, running his record to 3-8.

"I had really gone through a rough patch the last month or so," said Wood, who was selected by the Reds in the second round of the 2005 Draft. "So I came out with a plan to get ahead of the hitters. My fastball location was good and my change worked pretty well.

"I think my biggest problem was the mental aspect of the game," he added. "Things would go wrong for me and then I'd dig myself into a hole. But I had a good feeling about today."

Wood retired the first 19 batters he faced before Ivan DeJesus became the first Suns hitter to reach base by drawing a walk with two down in the seventh. Adam Godwin broke up the no-hitter with a two-out RBI double to center in the eighth, driving in Lucas May who had walked.

"I felt great," he said of the later innings. "I had some adrenalin going."

Wood was called up on May 28 from Class A Advanced Sarasota, where he was 3-4 with a 2.70 ERA. But after beating Montgomery, 4-1, in his first Double-A outing, he went into a bit of a tailspin.

"I'm learning a lot," he said. "I'd like to end on a good note so I can go into next season strong."

Ramon Geronimo hurled one scoreless inning, allowing two hits and a walk to notch his second save for the Lookouts (24-33).

Chris Heisey and Tonys Gutierrez each had two hits and an RBI to spark the Chattanooga offense.

Eric DuBose allowed three runs on six hits, striking out two and walking three over five innings to take the loss for the Suns (24-33).

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080820&content_id=3336702&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

LouisvilleCARDS
08-20-2008, 02:37 AM
Sweet Bats comeback. Guess turnabout is fair play. They came back on the Bats last night and the Bats did the same tonight.

TRF
08-20-2008, 09:13 AM
Me too. I love that its gotten lower at every level he has played at. That takes work and it shows he is able to make adjustments, and baseball is just that, a game of adjustments.

The bulk of his PA's at AA were WORSE than his time in the FSL. And in his case, it's all about sample size. When he's played an entire season at one level, the holes in his offensive game have been exploited. This season when he's spent any SIGNIFICANT time at a level, pitchers dominated him. He got figured out pretty quick in AA.

That stated, he's on a roll right now. But it's only been a week, and yesterday he was hitting .221 with a sub .300 OBP. We KNOW Stubbs isn't a .595 SLG guy.

We'll see how he does at the end of the AAA season. My guess is his OPS, now at .917 will drop to around the .770 range. See while Stubbs will be making adjustments, pitchers will be as well. It's that second set of adjustments that I wonder about.

Still, a nice week for Stubbs.

lollipopcurve
08-20-2008, 09:25 AM
yesterday he was hitting .221 with a sub .300 OBP.

Stubbs runs hot and cold. That's who is, so far. If you're not looking at the whole, you're not looking at the real Drew Stubbs.

PuffyPig
08-20-2008, 10:19 AM
The bulk of his PA's at AA were WORSE than his time in the FSL. And in his case, it's all about sample size. When he's played an entire season at one level, the holes in his offensive game have been exploited. This season when he's spent any SIGNIFICANT time at a level, pitchers dominated him. He got figured out pretty quick in AA.



If by the "bulk of his AB's at AA" you mean those "AB's were he made outs", I guess you are right, but couldn't you say that about any batter? The bulk of Albert Pujols AB's (about 60%) he looks terrible as his OPS is zero.

For a player who got figured out very quickly at AA, he managed to improve his OPS while he was there. The fact of the matter is, Stubbs has been a high .700 OPS guy at every level he has played in. He's been able to keep his OPS in that range as he has moved up. AT AA and above, it's .828.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 12:07 PM
The bulk of his PA's at AA were WORSE than his time in the FSL. And in his case, it's all about sample size. When he's played an entire season at one level, the holes in his offensive game have been exploited. This season when he's spent any SIGNIFICANT time at a level, pitchers dominated him. He got figured out pretty quick in AA.

That stated, he's on a roll right now. But it's only been a week, and yesterday he was hitting .221 with a sub .300 OBP. We KNOW Stubbs isn't a .595 SLG guy.

We'll see how he does at the end of the AAA season. My guess is his OPS, now at .917 will drop to around the .770 range. See while Stubbs will be making adjustments, pitchers will be as well. It's that second set of adjustments that I wonder about.

Still, a nice week for Stubbs.
When he has played an entire season at 1 level he has been exploited? You mean last year, the only full season he has even played? As for 'pitchers figured him out pretty quick in AA', if pitchers keep figuring him out like those guys did we will have a very good player on our hands in CF for the Reds.

TRF
08-20-2008, 12:07 PM
If by the "bulk of his AB's at AA" you mean those "AB's were he made outs", I guess you are right, but couldn't you say that about any batter? The bulk of Albert Pujols AB's (about 60%) he looks terrible as his OPS is zero.

For a player who got figured out very quickly at AA, he managed to improve his OPS while he was there. The fact of the matter is, Stubbs has been a high .700 OPS guy at every level he has played in. He's been able to keep his OPS in that range as he has moved up. AT AA and above, it's .828.

All his AB's after his 1st game. Nothing he did at A+ warranted a promotion. At AA, he was outhit by both Dorn and Henry, and with Dorn, it wasn't particularly close.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 12:11 PM
All his AB's after his 1st game. Nothing he did at A+ warranted a promotion. At AA, he was outhit by both Dorn and Henry, and with Dorn, it wasn't particularly close.

Actually a lot of what he did at A+ warranted a promotion. Promotions aren't always because of what you can see in the numbers. We have had this conversation a few times before though, so I don't know why I am having it again.

medford
08-20-2008, 12:31 PM
All his AB's after his 1st game. Nothing he did at A+ warranted a promotion. At AA, he was outhit by both Dorn and Henry, and with Dorn, it wasn't particularly close.

Nothing? IIRC he put up solid numbers for a pitchers league while reportably playing high level of defense. If you were to guy into Doug's argument that his numbers were a bit unlucky when compared to his line drive rate, then perhaps he did everything in the scouts eye to warrant that promotion.

Dorn & Henry are both listed as LF. I don't know how often either plays other positions, but most of what I've read is that Stubbs defense is way ahead of both of this guys. Stubbs will play both sides of the game, he won't be a DH, perhaps Walt values his long term overall potential for the Reds far more than he values either Dorn or Henry's value.

What will Stubbs have to do to make the anti-Stubbs contigent happy? He's made tremoundous progress this year, complimenting the strides he made at the end of last season when many on here began to get hope that Stubbs had finally figured it out. Sure its a small sample size above A+, but Stubbs has at worst held even w/ his number from A+ while shooting up thru 2 levels of pitching.

osuceltic
08-20-2008, 12:46 PM
What will Stubbs have to do to make the anti-Stubbs contigent happy?
Cure cancer? Probably not, because Cancer would just adjust and the Stubbs cure would be neutralized.

I think the sooner we all get it through our thick heads that Drew Stubbs sucks and probably is hiding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in his garage, the better off we'll all be.

NJReds
08-20-2008, 12:48 PM
What will Stubbs have to do to make the anti-Stubbs contigent happy?

Nothing. He's destined to become Redszone's next Dunn. Where countless threads will be started rehashing the same debates.

TRF
08-20-2008, 02:54 PM
Nothing? IIRC he put up solid numbers for a pitchers league while reportably playing high level of defense. If you were to guy into Doug's argument that his numbers were a bit unlucky when compared to his line drive rate, then perhaps he did everything in the scouts eye to warrant that promotion.

Dorn & Henry are both listed as LF. I don't know how often either plays other positions, but most of what I've read is that Stubbs defense is way ahead of both of this guys. Stubbs will play both sides of the game, he won't be a DH, perhaps Walt values his long term overall potential for the Reds far more than he values either Dorn or Henry's value.

What will Stubbs have to do to make the anti-Stubbs contigent happy? He's made tremoundous progress this year, complimenting the strides he made at the end of last season when many on here began to get hope that Stubbs had finally figured it out. Sure its a small sample size above A+, but Stubbs has at worst held even w/ his number from A+ while shooting up thru 2 levels of pitching.

180 AB's of sub .650 OPS ball just before being promoted to AA.

blech. I get the REP for his defense. Anderson Machado had a great rep for his defense too. Ray Olmedo had a great rep for defense. Gookie Dawkins had a great rep for his defense. Stubbs still has to produce consistently at higher levels, because he never did that at the lower levels.

And no, doug's LD% theory is completely full of holes.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 03:10 PM
180 AB's of sub .650 OPS ball just before being promoted to AA.

blech. I get the REP for his defense. Anderson Machado had a great rep for his defense too. Ray Olmedo had a great rep for defense. Gookie Dawkins had a great rep for his defense. Stubbs still has to produce consistently at higher levels, because he never did that at the lower levels.


This is also the first season Drew has been injury free in his pro career. You keep getting caught up on removing his best games. Don't. They all count equally. His 4-5 counts just as much as his 0-5. For the season Drew is hitting for an OPS near .800. Thats what he is doing.




And no, doug's LD% theory is completely full of holes.
I don't really think so. Line drives correlate to BABIP (which in turn correlates to average) and SLG. Hit more line drives, get on base more and acquire more bases.

medford
08-20-2008, 03:17 PM
Seriously, did Drew piss in your wheaties? Kick your dog? Outside of Aronchis, I've never seen somebody so eager to dismiss any improvement or streak of success that a Reds prospect is having. Just enjoy the fact the today the Reds have a prospect w/ more value to either the Reds themselves or to another MLB club for a trade than they did at the begining of the season. He's put up solid numbers as a whole in his short tenure in AA and AAA, after putting up solid numers (over the course of the whole first half of the season, looking at a whole season vs just part of a season was a point of reference when it worked in your favor earlier this thread). Life's too short, be happy for Drew. Take some enjoyment in his progress. Lord knows there's little joy to be taken from the Reds this season.

TRF
08-20-2008, 03:20 PM
I don't really think so. Line drives correlate to BABIP (which in turn correlates to average) and SLG. Hit more line drives, get on base more and acquire more bases.

It's the nebulous definition of line drive. the fact is Stubbs had 180 AB's in which his LD% was above 21% yet his SLG was .281 in May and .321 in June. In July, his LD% at AA was 17% yet he SLG .352. In August, his LD% was a whopping 31% (not a sustainable rate. What is the MLB average anyway?) and yes, he SLG .474 (waaaay above his career norm, and sample size plays a part here.)

Now in August his LD% is 16% and he's SLG .591. Again sample size plays a part, but I'm not seeing any correlation between LD% and SLG.

All LD% is is the percentage of ball put in play defined as line drives by the official scorer. It does nothing to describe the ball in play other than it was too low for a flyball, and too high for a groundball.

lollipopcurve
08-20-2008, 03:23 PM
Seriously, did Drew piss in your wheaties? Kick your dog? Outside of Aronchis, I've never seen somebody so eager to dismiss any improvement or streak of success that a Reds prospect is having. Just enjoy the fact the today the Reds have a prospect w/ more value to either the Reds themselves or to another MLB club for a trade than they did at the begining of the season. He's put up solid numbers as a whole in his short tenure in AA and AAA, after putting up solid numers (over the course of the whole first half of the season, looking at a whole season vs just part of a season was a point of reference when it worked in your favor earlier this thread). Life's too short, be happy for Drew. Take some enjoyment in his progress. Lord knows there's little joy to be taken from the Reds this season.

'at's right

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 03:28 PM
It's the nebulous definition of line drive. the fact is Stubbs had 180 AB's in which his LD% was above 21% yet his SLG was .281 in May and .321 in June. In July, his LD% at AA was 17% yet he SLG .352. In August, his LD% was a whopping 31% (not a sustainable rate. What is the MLB average anyway?) and yes, he SLG .474 (waaaay above his career norm, and sample size plays a part here.)

Now in August his LD% is 16% and he's SLG .591. Again sample size plays a part, but I'm not seeing any correlation between LD% and SLG.

There are studies that show the correlation between line drives and slugging. Just because it doesn't play out over a few months in a season for a single player doesn't mean its not likely to play out that way for the same guy the next season or in the future. Line drives go for hits 72-74% of the time in the major leagues. I would bet they go for hits a little higher in the minor leagues because of the defenses. Far and away, line drives go for hits more than any other type of batted ball. The more line drives you hit, the higher your chances are for getting on base. Drew has shown a strong ability this year to hit line drives in bunches.

TRF
08-20-2008, 03:28 PM
Seriously, did Drew piss in your wheaties? Kick your dog? Outside of Aronchis, I've never seen somebody so eager to dismiss any improvement or streak of success that a Reds prospect is having. Just enjoy the fact the today the Reds have a prospect w/ more value to either the Reds themselves or to another MLB club for a trade than they did at the begining of the season. He's put up solid numbers as a whole in his short tenure in AA and AAA, after putting up solid numers (over the course of the whole first half of the season, looking at a whole season vs just part of a season was a point of reference when it worked in your favor earlier this thread). Life's too short, be happy for Drew. Take some enjoyment in his progress. Lord knows there's little joy to be taken from the Reds this season.

I hated the pick the moment it was announced. He was old for every level he's played at. He didn't hit in a hitter league, and hasn't hit at any level he's played at far any considerable length of time.

I do get some of the reasons to like the guy. I want a plus defender in CF, but I doubt he's any better than CP defensively. I doubt he's better than Dickerson too.

I don't get why people get behind a guy that hasn't produced and projects as a 4th OF, but then again, I'm also a Tyler Pelland fan, so I kind of get it. (sooner or later, Pelland is going to have a monster season. I can feel it.)

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 03:32 PM
All LD% is is the percentage of ball put in play defined as line drives by the official scorer. It does nothing to describe the ball in play other than it was too low for a flyball, and too high for a groundball.

Basically, you are writing it off that Drew Stubbs is the outlier to being a line drive hitter in that he isn't really a line drive hitter, all of the scorers (through 3 leagues now) have all been fooled into thinking he is hitting line drives. Not all line drives are created equally, but no player is stinging line drives every time, just like no player is hitting soft liners every time.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 03:34 PM
I hated the pick the moment it was announced. He was old for every level he's played at. He didn't hit in a hitter league, and hasn't hit at any level he's played at far any considerable length of time.

I do get some of the reasons to like the guy. I want a plus defender in CF, but I doubt he's any better than CP defensively. I doubt he's better than Dickerson too.

I don't get why people get behind a guy that hasn't produced and projects as a 4th OF, but then again, I'm also a Tyler Pelland fan, so I kind of get it. (sooner or later, Pelland is going to have a monster season. I can feel it.)

So basically you hate the guy because he isn't Tim Lincecum and nothing is going to change your mind? Thats all you had to say.

I do find it funny that you doubt he is better than Dickerson or Patterson despite my guessing that you have seen him play a grand total of 0 times as a professional. Basically, you are discrediting him for simply being who he is, because he isn't who you wanted.

TRF
08-20-2008, 03:35 PM
Basically, you are writing it off that Drew Stubbs is the outlier to being a line drive hitter in that he isn't really a line drive hitter, all of the scorers (through 3 leagues now) have all been fooled into thinking he is hitting line drives. Not all line drives are created equally, but no player is stinging line drives every time, just like no player is hitting soft liners every time.

agreed. Doesn't his SLG explain a bit more of the kind of line drives he is hitting? It isn't that the official scorer is fooled in any way. a soft LD to 2B is a LD. period. and a .330 SLG indicates a lot of soft line drives. If it was just one abberrant month, that could be written off. It isn't just one month. and your answer did nothing to address this invisible correlation between LD% and SLG%.

It just isn't there.

medford
08-20-2008, 03:38 PM
Cure cancer? Probably not, because Cancer would just adjust and the Stubbs cure would be neutralized.

I think the sooner we all get it through our thick heads that Drew Stubbs sucks and probably is hiding Iraq's weapons of mass destruction in his garage, the better off we'll all be.

Sadly, much of Drew's success rate, as deemed by redszone, will be tied directly into the performance of Tim Linceicum (sp?). Unfortunetly for Drew, that is a Reds problem that he can not control, but will always be judged against by some fans.

Although curing cancer would probably make him far richer than being an all-star CF in the majors, probably make him more popular world wide as well.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 04:07 PM
agreed. Doesn't his SLG explain a bit more of the kind of line drives he is hitting? It isn't that the official scorer is fooled in any way. a soft LD to 2B is a LD. period. and a .330 SLG indicates a lot of soft line drives. If it was just one abberrant month, that could be written off. It isn't just one month. and your answer did nothing to address this invisible correlation between LD% and SLG%.

It just isn't there.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/groundballs-flyballs-and-line-drives/



By the way, the ability to hit line drives is also correlated with overall batting effectiveness (GPA) and Isolated Power (ISO, which is SLG minus BA) but not home runs. Home runs are more closely tied to hitting flyballs.

medford
08-20-2008, 04:08 PM
I hated the pick the moment it was announced. He was old for every level he's played at. He didn't hit in a hitter league, and hasn't hit at any level he's played at far any considerable length of time.

I do get some of the reasons to like the guy. I want a plus defender in CF, but I doubt he's any better than CP defensively. I doubt he's better than Dickerson too.

I don't get why people get behind a guy that hasn't produced and projects as a 4th OF, but then again, I'm also a Tyler Pelland fan, so I kind of get it. (sooner or later, Pelland is going to have a monster season. I can feel it.)


OK, I don't mind that you never liked the pick. I don't even care if you don't think he'll ever make an impact in the majors. And to be honest, I kind of enjoy your back & forth w/ Doug so that I'm presented w/ both sides of the story if you will. The optomistic side of my nature will always gravitate towards Doug's side in this case so that I can at least have some hope, but having both sides of information is by far better than always being presented a rosy picture (no matter which subject/prospect that we're talking about)

What I don't get, is that even w/ Drew showing some signs of real progress, at a levels higher than the 2 levels he initially struggled on (rookie & Dayton), you're still quick to poo-poo his success. To be fair, its not just you. Many have done it with Dunn, Aronchis was the nay-sayer on Homer (until he became the voice of reason when the fan base began to turn on Homer this spring), and you are seemingly the downside that is Stubbs.

anyhoo, different strokes for different folks I suppose. I probably need to let it go, b/c nobody seems to just agree to disagree and move on.

osuceltic
08-20-2008, 04:12 PM
I don't get why people get behind a guy ...
He's a Reds prospect. We're Reds fans. Why wouldn't we get behind the guy?

TRF
08-20-2008, 04:16 PM
anyhoo, different strokes for different folks I suppose. I probably need to let it go, b/c nobody seems to just agree to disagree and move on.

What fun would that be? :D

Seriously, I get a kick out of the back and forth with doug, because when there is info on a new minor leaguer, doug usually has it. And for the most part I take what he says about the Reds ML players at face value. He's got info I'll never have. That said, I think he's wrong about Stubbs. I just think I see a pattern of hitting with him, and I think the Reds see it too. I think the Bats could have gotten along just fine with Cumberland in CF and Dorn in LF. I think the Reds are hoping Stubbs can run up some good numbers in a limited amount of appearances in the hope that someone bites in a big off-season deal.

I think CF is Dickerson's to lose right now. That makes Stubbs an interesting trade chip if he can perform for the rest of the season.

TRF
08-20-2008, 04:17 PM
He's a Reds prospect. We're Reds fans. Why wouldn't we get behind the guy?

So where is YOUR Corey Patterson Jersey? :laugh:

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 04:23 PM
So where is YOUR Corey Patterson Jersey? :laugh:

Of course, Corey Patterson is downright awful and we have known that for years and years. Big difference.

medford
08-20-2008, 04:27 PM
What fun would that be? :D

Seriously, I get a kick out of the back and forth with doug, because when there is info on a new minor leaguer, doug usually has it. And for the most part I take what he says about the Reds ML players at face value. He's got info I'll never have. That said, I think he's wrong about Stubbs. I just think I see a pattern of hitting with him, and I think the Reds see it too. I think the Bats could have gotten along just fine with Cumberland in CF and Dorn in LF. I think the Reds are hoping Stubbs can run up some good numbers in a limited amount of appearances in the hope that someone bites in a big off-season deal.

I think CF is Dickerson's to lose right now. That makes Stubbs an interesting trade chip if he can perform for the rest of the season.

Could be true, and it would make for an interesting behind the scenes story, and perhaps even a smart move if the Reds agreed w/ you and were able to leverage a short stint in AA and AAA for something of use to the club next season.

However, I would be surprised if the Reds were any more confident in Dickerson than they are in Stubbs at this point. Both have seemingly similar warts, and similar pluses. Stubbs comes w/ the high draft pick tag, place more intrinsic value on him, while Dickerson has put up numbers on a higher level. Plus, if the Reds truley thought Dickerson was the man, and stubbs was best left to move for another piece, why sit Dickerson in favor of Patterson? Maybe its just a Dusty love child thing, but if you think you've got the man of the future, and you're far out of the race, he's not sitting out a game in favor of Patterson.

Additionally, there were enough rumblings that unless Stubbs completely fell off the table, the Reds were planning to move him up to AA after the all star break. These rumblings started mid-season and never really went away until Stubbs was promoted right around the all-star break. Stubbs move to AAA coincided w/ the move of Dunn & Griffey, W/ Dickerson up to the majors. Perhaps they felt Dickerson/Stubbs are one in the same for better or worse, time to get them both close to the majors and sort things out next spring.

medford
08-20-2008, 04:27 PM
So where is YOUR Corey Patterson Jersey? :laugh:

Touche

TRF
08-20-2008, 04:34 PM
I think the biggest difference between Stubbs and Dickerson is sample size. Dickerson has basically done a level a year, progressing at each stop (except the dreaded FSL). Stubbs doesn't have the same success due to sample size. He's suddenly rocketing through the system like Dunn or Bruce, but without the results those two posted. And I think a lot of that has to do with his draft slot.

Stubbs biggest value to the Reds just may be as part of a trade. Wouldn't be the first time that's happened. David Espinosa springs to mind. I just hope if that is the case the return is better than Brian Moehler.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 04:38 PM
I think the biggest difference between Stubbs and Dickerson is sample size. Dickerson has basically done a level a year, progressing at each stop (except the dreaded FSL). Stubbs doesn't have the same success due to sample size. He's suddenly rocketing through the system like Dunn or Bruce, but without the results those two posted. And I think a lot of that has to do with his draft slot.

Stubbs biggest value to the Reds just may be as part of a trade. Wouldn't be the first time that's happened. David Espinosa springs to mind. I just hope if that is the case the return is better than Brian Moehler.

I think the biggest difference between Stubbs and Dickerson, outside of age of course, is that Stubbs has shown improvement at the plate in his strikezone judgement, where Chris just stayed terrible all the way up the ladder in the strikeout department.

osuceltic
08-20-2008, 05:02 PM
So where is YOUR Corey Patterson Jersey? :laugh:

I know what you're saying, but I pulled like hell for Corey Patterson this year.

Stubbs may never make it, but I'll pull like hell for him until he doesn't.

TRF
08-20-2008, 05:34 PM
I think the biggest difference between Stubbs and Dickerson, outside of age of course, is that Stubbs has shown improvement at the plate in his strikezone judgement, where Chris just stayed terrible all the way up the ladder in the strikeout department.

K's are overrated if you have a bit of power. Dickerson has a bit of power. Stubbs doesn't. While Dickerson may not have a stellar K rate, he does hit the ball hard as is evident by his SLG. In contrast, Stubbs A SLG was .421, A+ .406, AA .386.

That's almost like a trend.

dougdirt
08-20-2008, 06:06 PM
K's are overrated if you have a bit of power. Dickerson has a bit of power. Stubbs doesn't. While Dickerson may not have a stellar K rate, he does hit the ball hard as is evident by his SLG. In contrast, Stubbs A SLG was .421, A+ .406, AA .386.

That's almost like a trend.

Dickerson may hit the ball hard when he hits it.... but he hits it a whole lot less than nearly everyone. I do find it interesting that Dickerson hits the ball hard, which is evident in his slugging, yet has a career minor league slugging percentage of .411 and until his age 26 season never slugged over .435.

However Drew doesn't have power, yet has a career slugging percentage of .416, higher than Dickerson's career slugging percentage. Funny how that works isn't it? Its like Stubbs acquires more bases than Dickerson per time he steps to the plate, but has less power. Strange isn't it?

As for the entire strikeouts being overrated..... The difference between Stubbs and Dickerson's career rates is about 20 extra strikeouts per 600 PA for Dickerson and he has not shown any improvement since he started. Stubbs on the flip side has gotten better with his contact at every step.

TRF
08-21-2008, 09:14 AM
sample, sample, sample.

Any objective look at Stubbs shows the more a league sees him, the more it dominates him. That was the case in the FSL, that was the case in the SL. We'll see if that's the case in the IL.

lollipopcurve
08-21-2008, 09:31 AM
Any objective look at Stubbs shows the more a league sees him, the more it dominates him.

There's been no domination of any kind in Stubbs' minor league career, either by him or by any league he's been in. The analysis is so overheated in this debate that casual observers would probably provide a better perspective, in my opinion.

TRF
08-21-2008, 09:48 AM
Billings, compared to the rest of his team in a hitters league, and a first round draft pick, dominated.

Dayton, poor first half, much better second half. The excuse was injury

Sarasota, outstanding April followed by 180 AB's of pure suck. dominated. The excuse was it's the FSL.

Chatt, great first game, didn't hit after that. 54points of his overall OPS are because of his 1st game. his SLG after his first game? in the .330's

And now we have 8 games into the AAA portion of his career. A spot he's in due to aggressive promotion, NOT because of his bat. But if Walt wants a toolsy OF, Stubbs seems to be that kind of guy.

How Bowdenian.

Hoosier Red
08-21-2008, 12:21 PM
TRF,

unless you can show why he hits so well in his first game as opposed to his second, third, fourth etc... it's a useless exercise to take it out.

Are you supposing that he hits well in his first game(or at the ville in his first week or so,) then the league immediately spots the huge holes in his swing, and two months later they forget?

What's his OPS if you take away the third game at each level?

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 12:50 PM
Speaking of Drew Stubbs not having power, I am watching the game from the 19th today (the feed wasn't working correctly on the 19th, but its now archived) and the HR he hit went an estimated 440 feet.

TRF
08-21-2008, 12:53 PM
Look, it just may be a pattern I see because I don't think he's much of a prospect. He does start off decent, but pitchers tend to adjust to him quickly. He had a great start in the FSL, and about three weeks in, pitchers adjusted, and his OPS over the NEXT TWO MONTHS was in the .630 range.

As for his AA performance I didn't pick a random game. just his first game. I figure, promotion, adrenalin, wanting to impress etc. After that first game he was just meh. Nothing spectacular at all in July. better in August, but the sample is too small. I'd have preferred he stay at AA to see if he can make adjustments, but honestly he didn't hit his way out of Sarasota.

bucksfan2
08-21-2008, 12:55 PM
sample, sample, sample.

Any objective look at Stubbs shows the more a league sees him, the more it dominates him. That was the case in the FSL, that was the case in the SL. We'll see if that's the case in the IL.

TRF it seems to me that whenever you begin to talk about Stubbs it is more subjective than objective. Taking away data points when and where you see fit can misconstrue Stubbs numbers. I find it ironic that you tend to take away Stubbs better days in doing so magnify his poor days.

TRF
08-21-2008, 12:56 PM
Speaking of Drew Stubbs not having power, I am watching the game from the 19th today (the feed wasn't working correctly on the 19th, but its now archived) and the HR he hit went an estimated 440 feet.

I once saw Juan Castro hit a HR too.

No one has ever stated that Stubbs isn't strong. Just that his swing and approach don't produce power.

180+ AB's in the FSL, .630ish OPS. Juan Francisco has power, Stubbs does not. And don't try to point out OBP's when comparing the two, that isn't the argument. You stated over and over that the FSL curtails SLG. I agree that it does, but Francisco is younger than Stubbs and his SLG hasn't suffered too much.

TRF
08-21-2008, 01:00 PM
TRF it seems to me that whenever you begin to talk about Stubbs it is more subjective than objective. Taking away data points when and where you see fit can misconstrue Stubbs numbers. I find it ironic that you tend to take away Stubbs better days in doing so magnify his poor days.

Because his better days seem to have trend value to them. They seem to be (this year anyway) early in his introduction to a league. Good early in the FSL, SL and IL. Once pitchers have a book on him he struggles. That's normal, but Stubbs never made a counter adjustment in the FSL. He got dominated for 2+ months and NO ONE can refute that.

Was that happening in the SL? Seems like it was heading that way, but the sample size was too small to be sure.

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 01:01 PM
Look, it just may be a pattern I see because I don't think he's much of a prospect. He does start off decent, but pitchers tend to adjust to him quickly. He had a great start in the FSL, and about three weeks in, pitchers adjusted, and his OPS over the NEXT TWO MONTHS was in the .630 range.

As for his AA performance I didn't pick a random game. just his first game. I figure, promotion, adrenalin, wanting to impress etc. After that first game he was just meh. Nothing spectacular at all in July. better in August, but the sample is too small. I'd have preferred he stay at AA to see if he can make adjustments, but honestly he didn't hit his way out of Sarasota.

As for nothing spectacular in July.... sure, he did hit .305/.392/.463 though in July and that isn't exactly a bad month. I think you see bad times and brush it off as he sucks, when in fact its just a long season and guys will have ups and downs. Its like saying Todd Frazier sucks because over the last two months he has an OPS of about .740 in High A.

mace
08-21-2008, 01:05 PM
It's possible that Stubbs didn't "hit his way out of Sarasota," and it's possible that each promotion "has to do with his draft slot;" but it's also possible -- very possible -- that the people who make those decisions know a whole lot more about it than we do. To wit, think of last year, when Bailey was dominating AAA and everybody was clamoring to get him up here. The statistics certainly suggested that he was ready. But the people in charge knew more. They knew, perhaps, that his fastball wasn't located well enough to get out big-league hitters, and that his other stuff wasn't sharp enough, and that he wasn't as generally ready as the numbers implied. Maybe Stubbs is the reverse of that. Maybe the rest of his game is readier than his batting average. Maybe the Reds like the way he tracks fly balls and runs the bases and works the count and does the little things. Maybe they think he was beyond his level in those areas. I don't know that for a fact; but I do know that there's a lot more to it than we can see or quantify or rail about. And for the most part -- with exceptions, certainly -- it seems that the organization has shown pretty good instincts in terms of the right time to promote people.

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 01:05 PM
I once saw Juan Castro hit a HR too.

No one has ever stated that Stubbs isn't strong. Just that his swing and approach don't produce power.

180+ AB's in the FSL, .630ish OPS. Juan Francisco has power, Stubbs does not. And don't try to point out OBP's when comparing the two, that isn't the argument. You stated over and over that the FSL curtails SLG. I agree that it does, but Francisco is younger than Stubbs and his SLG hasn't suffered too much.

Except Drew had 300+ at bats in Sarasota and a .770ish OPS.

As for his swing and approach don't produce power.... it does at times. He has what we call raw power. It may or may not develop fully, but he certainly has the potential to hit the baseball really far with his swing and his body. As for a comparison to Francisco in the power department.... thats not going to happen, because Francisco wins regardless of who in our system you are comparing him to. He has a different kind of power than a whole lot of people in the minor leagues do.

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 01:10 PM
Because his better days seem to have trend value to them. They seem to be (this year anyway) early in his introduction to a league. Good early in the FSL, SL and IL. Once pitchers have a book on him he struggles. That's normal, but Stubbs never made a counter adjustment in the FSL. He got dominated for 2+ months and NO ONE can refute that.

Was that happening in the SL? Seems like it was heading that way, but the sample size was too small to be sure.

He never adjusted back in the FSL?


Split PA AB BB% K% GB% LD%
April 110 95 10.90% 25.50% 36% 31%
May 115 96 16.50% 27.00% 50% 23%
June 100 84 16.00% 19.00% 44% 24%
July 34 28 11.80% 11.80% 28% 24%

After his hot start, he raised his walk rate, lowered his strikeout rate and maintained a 23% line drive rate. He didn't get dominated, he was either ridiculously lucky in April (he was a little bit lucky with a .470 BABIP and a 31% LD rate which suggest a .430 BABIP) or really unlucky in May and June (where he had a .281 BABIP for both months when his 24% LD rate suggests it should have been .360). You claim he was dominated, yet the things he controls, walking, striking out and hitting line drives all looked very good and two of the three improved while the line drives stayed very high.

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2008, 01:17 PM
Stubbs last seven games in AA Chattanooga:

.346/.414/.500 - .914 OPS.

TRF
08-21-2008, 04:07 PM
It is a long season, and no he didn't adjust.


AVG OBP SLG OPS
May: 0.198 0.330 0.281 0.611
June 0.226 0.343 0.321 0.664

the numbers that show actual production say he didn't adjust until July, and in July it was 28 AB's. About a week So in fact he had 8 hot games, his final 28 AB's in A+ and his first game in AA, then his OPS did start to climb a bit.

but again, small sample when he started to improve.

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 04:09 PM
It is a long season, and no he didn't adjust.


AVG OBP SLG OPS
May: 0.198 0.330 0.281 0.611
June 0.226 0.343 0.321 0.664

the numbers that show actual production say he didn't adjust until July, and in July it was 28 AB's. About a week So in fact he had 8 hot games, his final 28 AB's in A+ and his first game in AA, then his OPS did start to climb a bit.

but again, small sample when he started to improve.

Except those things are mostly out of his control. Sometimes hits just don't fall in. He struck out less, walked more and continued to lead the FSL in line drive rate..... That doesn't suggest he was 'figured out' at all. If you are going to have an argument that guys figured him out, wouldn't he walk less, strikeout more and not be hitting line drives all over the place? Thats what I think of when people figure hitters out.

TRF
08-21-2008, 05:09 PM
Except those things are mostly out of his control. Sometimes hits just don't fall in. He struck out less, walked more and continued to lead the FSL in line drive rate..... That doesn't suggest he was 'figured out' at all. If you are going to have an argument that guys figured him out, wouldn't he walk less, strikeout more and not be hitting line drives all over the place? Thats what I think of when people figure hitters out.

No. Might it also mean that they know he can't damage them, so they throw more pitches in the zone KNOWING he won't hit the ball hard? Maybe it means he's prone to making contact with pitches he can't do a lot with. Ted Williams talked about this a lot, not swinging at a pitch that was a strike that he couldn't do anything with. Is K'ing less a plus if the out comes quicker in the AB due to him swinging at junk he can't drive?

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 05:38 PM
No. Might it also mean that they know he can't damage them, so they throw more pitches in the zone KNOWING he won't hit the ball hard? Maybe it means he's prone to making contact with pitches he can't do a lot with. Ted Williams talked about this a lot, not swinging at a pitch that was a strike that he couldn't do anything with. Is K'ing less a plus if the out comes quicker in the AB due to him swinging at junk he can't drive?

So they threw more pitches in the zone because as you say, he won't hit the ball hard, yet he walked more and continued to lead the FSL in line drive rate (which by definition is hitting the ball hard)? I just can't buy that argument, because it doesn't really make any sense given the walks and line drives. Did his XBH rate go down? Sure it did. That doesn't mean he wasn't hitting softies everywhere, its likely that he was just unlucky (which he was).

Lockdwn11
08-21-2008, 05:41 PM
So basically you hate the guy because he isn't Tim Lincecum and nothing is going to change your mind? Thats all you had to say.

I do find it funny that you doubt he is better than Dickerson or Patterson despite my guessing that you have seen him play a grand total of 0 times as a professional. Basically, you are discrediting him for simply being who he is, because he isn't who you wanted.

Doug you just hit the nail on the head with that post. So why do you even try talking to this guy? He doesn't care what you saying or if your right all he cares about is Drew Stubbs is not Tim Lincecum.

dougdirt
08-21-2008, 05:45 PM
Doug you just hit the nail on the head with that post. So why do you even try talking to this guy? He doesn't care what you saying or if your right all he cares about is Drew Stubbs is not Tim Lincecum.

Because I am stupid. Plus there is the fact that others might believe what he says, but aren't posting. Gotta get the other side of the argument out there just in case.

crazyredfan40
08-21-2008, 07:12 PM
Why wouldn't they know this before he got there...I am sure they would know how he hits in the FSL before he got to AA...I am sure they have some sort of scouting report on him...

It is just a ridiculous argument when you start taking out the best games and not leaving in the worst games...You take out a 4-5 game and not take out an 0-5 game...

He has solid power, he isn't Franscisco, but he isn't Juan Castro...It isn't always about stats in the minors like you want to believe...You have to dive deeper into the stats, and the stats you are giving are you take small sample sizes and take out the best parts...

TRF
08-22-2008, 09:00 AM
Since I have now been warned that I am beating this subject to death, and I probably am, I guess I'm done with it. I would like to start a discussion on a particular stat though, and I'll take great pains not to mention Stubbs.