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Benihana
08-20-2008, 06:30 PM
Most pundits think it's almost a given he will be traded this offseason. He is signed through 2009, and then becomes a free agent who will almost certainly get a monster contract- $100MM at a minimum. Here's why I think he might be playing LF for the Cincinnati Reds very soon.

This move has Jocketty written all over it- it's his trademark. He did it three times in St. Louis with Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen. He LOVES trading for an established star entering his walk year, and every time he does it, people wonder how the guy was ever on the block in the first place. Oh, and did I mention, he gives up peanuts?

The Reds now have Dunn and Jr. off the books. Castellini and company want a winner very soon, but it is clear that these trades have blown a massive hole in the hull of the offense. In comes Matt Holliday.

Sure it will cost a lot of talent, and surely a lot of cash to re-sign him (which is part of the Jocketty special.) But this is precisely the kind of move that would appease both Jocketty and Castellini at the same time. MLBtraderumors has already noted that a lot of the small market teams are expected to be serious players in the Holliday sweepstakes. But very few teams have both the talent and the money to spend. And I believe the Reds are one of them. Here's my offer (take one from each group):

GROUP A
Joey Votto

GROUP B
Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson

GROUP C
Chris Valaika
Josh Roenicke
Juan Francisco

Holliday could give this team EXACTLY what it needs, provided they re-sign him. If the Rockies hold out, I'd let them choose one of Henry, Cumberland, or Dorn. Of courses this all assumes the Reds get the 72-hour window to negotiate a LTC with Holliday, but the deal makes too much sense. Imagine this lineup for the next five years:

2B Keppinger/Valaika (unless he's in the deal)
SS Phillips
1B Alonso
LF Holliday
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
CF Stubbs/Dickerson
C Hanigan/Castillo


SP Volquez
SP Harang
SP Cueto
SP Arroyo
SP Owings/Masset

They could still try to shop Arroyo for a quality catcher if they needed to free up cash for Holliday. Regardless, this would be the type of move Castellini could make to show everyone he's not as crazy as he looks. Would 6 years, $120 MM be enough? I'd like to find out.

PS If they can't get Holliday, I would be interested in Orlando Hudson as a backup plan.

RedsManRick
08-20-2008, 06:34 PM
Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.

Rojo
08-20-2008, 06:39 PM
Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.

I haven't done the math, but it seems like a lot of ex-Coors players put up numbers somewhere between their splits.

Guacarock
08-20-2008, 06:56 PM
With the Rockies having inquired about Arroyo, maybe he could be part of the mix, reducing the pool of prospects/youth we might have to surrender for Holliday.

Of course, we would then have to replace Arroyo, but that seems do-able, given the free-agent starting pitchers hitting the market this winter. And some of them do seem like they could be a bit more consistent than Arroyo, more of a solid anchor for our staff, if not ace material. Lowe or Perez come to mind.

Ltlabner
08-20-2008, 06:58 PM
Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.


# YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
1. 2008 Matt Holliday 28 494 .333 .431 .597 59.9 54.3 34.4
6. 2008 Alfonso Soriano 30 354 .294 .339 .557 24.4 25.0 8.6
7. 2008 Adam Dunn 28 464 .302 .373 .528 24.1 36.4 15.7

Holliday would provide significant bump in power and production over Dunner*

I included Soriano's numbers because I'm always amazed at how close to Dunn in production he is.


* That significant bump is provided that Coors Field doesn't provide a big smoke and mirrors act as RMR pointed out.


# YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG
1. 2008 Matt Holliday 28 494 .333 .431 .597
Road Splits provided by RMR .346 .459
4. 2008 Edwin Encarnacion 25 451 .278 .335 .479
5. 2008 Joey Votto 24 431 .271 .343 .445

So just looking at the tradional OBP/SLG and EqA (measure of total offensive output, including baserunning, adjusted for time, park, league, etc. It's set up to look like BA). Holliday is heads and shoulders above Votto & EE.

But RMR is right that when you just look at the road splits, he's suddenly very human (not that Votto and EE are bad, mind you). If his contract money isn't stupid and its only for a year, I wouldn't be totally opposed, but I don't think you can expect to the the line posted above at GABP.

Highlifeman21
08-20-2008, 07:45 PM
With the Rockies having inquired about Arroyo, maybe he could be part of the mix, reducing the pool of prospects/youth we might have to surrender for Holliday.

Of course, we would then have to replace Arroyo, but that seems do-able, given the free-agent starting pitchers hitting the market this winter. And some of them do seem like they could be a bit more consistent than Arroyo, more of a solid anchor for our staff, if not ace material. Lowe or Perez come to mind.

Replacing Arroyo would be the least of my worries if we somehow stole Holliday from the Rockies in a trade that involved Arroyo becoming a Rockie.

flyer85
08-20-2008, 10:32 PM
another Coors illusion ... stay away

RedsManRick
08-20-2008, 10:34 PM
If you can get him Arroyo and a few prospects, I'd be all over it. But you can bet the Rockies are going to want a Teixeira like return -- I just don't see it happening.

Falls City Beer
08-20-2008, 10:39 PM
I haven't done the math, but it seems like a lot of ex-Coors players put up numbers somewhere between their splits.

Pitchers as well. The Coors effect is seldom as drastic as the splits might have you believe.

flyer85
08-20-2008, 10:40 PM
The Rocks and Holliday think he's a star and he may well be playing 81 games at Cooors but he isn't close to that level anywhere else ... buyer beware

jojo
08-20-2008, 10:40 PM
Not to sound like a broken record but I'd rather have Winn for a year given what it would take to acquire either player.

Falls City Beer
08-20-2008, 10:45 PM
Not to sound like a broken record but I'd rather have Winn for a year given what it would take to acquire either player.

I'm guessing folks are thinking longer term than one year, though. IMO.

RedsManRick
08-20-2008, 10:47 PM
Not to sound like a broken record but I'd rather have Winn for a year given what it would take to acquire either player.

I was just thinking the exact same thing. I just didn't want to through the exercise of defending it...

The argument of course is for Holliday to be Jocketty's next Edmonds. The difference of course is that Jocketty bought low with Edmonds and would be buying high on Holliday.

VR
08-20-2008, 10:50 PM
If the park adjusted #'s work, I'd give the entire list nee Roenicke for Holladay.

jojo
08-20-2008, 10:53 PM
I'm guessing folks are thinking longer term than one year, though. IMO.

It'll likely require a big initial investment in order to hope you can resign him.

missionhockey21
08-20-2008, 11:01 PM
Not that I'd be opposed to Holliday, but fair warning:

Home: .365/.430/.663, 1.092 OPS, .389 BABIP
Road: .280/.346/.459, .806 OPS, .322 BABIP

Holliday's power disappears on the road, dropping his average and OBP with it. He's still a solid player, but not the superstar he's purported to be. Think Votto or EE.
There is no question that he is a product by some degree of the Coors effect (especially in relation to overall power and slugging), but let's not say he is on the level that a Votto or EE is.

Holliday has shown fairly impressive improvement EACH season in his away splits and I think that trend is much more telling that the career splits you are using. He is a player that turned 28 this year, so his improvement should not be discounted if the trend is upward and consistent. While the power is not the same as it is in Rocky Mountain air, he would still be an addition that any team would gladly take over Votto or Encarnacion if he produces away stats like he has in 2008.

2004 Away (210 PA): .240/.287/.367, .654 OPS, .319 BABIP
2005 Away (262 PA): .256/.313/.416, .729 OPS, .270 BABIP
2006 Away (333 PA): .280/.333/.485, .819 OPS, .322 BABIP
2007 Away (350 PA): .301/.374/.485, .860 OPS, .352 BABIP
2008 Away (234 PA): .317/.410/.520, .930 OPS, .351 BABIP

RedsManRick
08-20-2008, 11:07 PM
There is no question that he is a product by some degree of the Coors effect (especially in relation to overall power and slugging), but let's not say he is on the level that a Votto or EE is.

Holliday has shown fairly impressive improvement EACH season in his away splits and I think that trend is much more telling that the career splits you are using. He is a player that turned 28 this year, so his improvement should not be discounted if the trend is upward and consistent. While the power is not the same as it is in Rocky Mountain air, he would still be an addition that any team would gladly take over Votto or Encarnacion if he produces away stats like he has in 2008.

2004 Away (210 PA): .240/.287/.367, .654 OPS, .319 BABIP
2005 Away (262 PA): .256/.313/.416, .729 OPS, .270 BABIP
2006 Away (333 PA): .280/.333/.485, .819 OPS, .322 BABIP
2007 Away (350 PA): .301/.374/.485, .860 OPS, .352 BABIP
2008 Away (234 PA): .317/.410/.520, .930 OPS, .351 BABIP

Thanks for showing that trend data, mh. I hadn't looked at the splits by year.

Benihana
08-20-2008, 11:29 PM
It'll likely require a big initial investment in order to hope you can resign him.

Not if you include the 72-hour window a la Santana last year. IMO he's the perfect target with the perfect bat, the perfect position, and hits with the perfect hand.

Arroyo, Votto, Bailey, and Thompson. Pick any two and add a Dorn, Cumberland, or Henry. Done and done.

jojo
08-20-2008, 11:39 PM
Not if you include the 72-hour window a la Santana last year. IMO he's the perfect target with the perfect bat, the perfect position, and hits with the perfect hand.

Arroyo, Votto, Bailey, and Thompson. Pick any two and add a Dorn, Cumberland, or Henry. Done and done.

I don't think that offer is good enough to win the right to convince Holliday to forgo the market by throwing $100M+ at him.

osuceltic
08-20-2008, 11:43 PM
I've been thinking the same thing for a while. It just wreaks of Jocketty -- other than the fact, as RMR mentioned, that Walt has bought low on his previous star pickups.

I'd pay a big-time premium for Holliday. As others have said, he's the perfect fit in terms of position in the field and the lineup. And we'd be paying for his prime seasons.

flyer85
08-20-2008, 11:59 PM
Holliday does not fit the profile of either Mcgwire, Edmonds or Rolen. Mcgwire was an aging star on a team wanting to get younger, Edmonds was getting up there coming off a couple of poor injury riddled seasons and Rolen had worn out his welcome in Philly. There were reasons each were undervalued.

In addition, his agent is Boras, which means he would test free agency and thus likely nothing but a 1 year rental. My guess is that to buy Boras off of free agency it would be 8 years and $200M

Reds/Flyers Fan
08-21-2008, 01:59 AM
another Coors illusion ... stay away

This is just flat-out wrong. Coors Field isn't what it used to be.

And it's not as if the Reds play in the Grand Canyon ... GABP may be the most mocked ballpark in the game as far as what it does to inflate numbers.

Jpup
08-21-2008, 03:23 AM
Joey Votto being traded isn't the answer to any question. Bruce, Votto, Volquez, & Cueto. No way I trade any of those 4 guys unless I am getting a haul in return. The Reds are not going to sniff .500 in '09 with Matt Holliday replacing Votto. If you had Dunn still, then you might be talking. Dunn was the answer to the left field problem. I really wish they would sign him, but that ship has sailed...or something.

mth123
08-21-2008, 03:38 AM
Joey Votto being traded isn't the answer to any question. Bruce, Votto, Volquez, & Cueto. No way I trade any of those 4 guys unless I am getting a haul in return. The Reds are not going to sniff .500 in '09 with Matt Holliday replacing Votto. If you had Dunn still, then you might be talking. Dunn was the answer to the left field problem. I really wish they would sign him, but that ship has sailed...or something.

:thumbup:

camisadelgolf
08-21-2008, 04:50 AM
First of all, one thing to keep in mind between Rockies players' home/road splits is that they play several games in Dodgers Stadium, PetCo Park, and AT&T Park, which are three of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball.

Second of all, the Rockies are crowded at third base. With Ian Stewart being the Rockies' best prospect (and already producing at a high level), I'd try to acquire Garrett Atkins and push Edwin Encarnacion to left field. It's a trade that would cut salary, cut bait with a risky contract, and improve the offense. Between Maloney, Bailey, Masset, Belisle, Thompson, etc., I don't think the drop off from Arroyo would be too bad.

Bronson Arroyo + prospects (both Pedro Viola and Justin Turner, for example) for Garrett Atkins? The Rockies really need some starting pitching, so they might actually bite on something like that, especially if Arroyo continues to pitch the way he has lately.

CF Dickerson/Freel
3B Atkins
1B Votto
LF Encarnacion
RF Bruce
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
C Hanigan

C Castillo
IF Rosales
IF Richar
OF Hopper

SP Volquez
SP Harang
SP Cueto
SP Owings
SP Bailey/Thompson/Maloney/Belisle/Masset

CL Cordero
RP Burton
RP Bray
RP Majewski
RP Herrera
RP Roenicke
RP Coffey/Pelland/Fisher

If it looks like some of those players are pretty weak, keep in mind that the Reds would have about $20mm to spend on free agents to fill out the roster. They could get a left-handed power bat for the bench, a top-of-the-line reliever, a veteran starter to eat some innings, etc.

SirFelixCat
08-21-2008, 07:05 AM
If Holliday treats GAB like Coors, he fills a whole bunch of holes the Reds have. Just sayin'...

flyer85
08-21-2008, 08:56 AM
If Holliday treats GAB like Coors, he fills a whole bunch of holes the Reds have. Just sayin'...except that GABP plays nothing like Coors.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 09:00 AM
This is just flat-out wrong. Coors Field isn't what it used to be.yes it is

2008 Coors
HRs 1.361
2B 1.141
3B 1.641
Runs 1.176

2008 GABP
HR 1.191
2b .983
3b .892
runs .978

lollipopcurve
08-21-2008, 09:04 AM
It'll likely require a big initial investment in order to hope you can resign him.

It definitely will. And, these days, getting a big-name player to pass on his first shot at free agency in order to sign a LTC in Cincinnati is a much harder sell than it was, back in the day, getting a player to sign in St. Louis, I'm sorry to say.

A one-year stay, where he can put up more big numbers, may make Cincy appealing to Holliday, but there can be no doubt Colorado is looking to hook a trade partner where both sides -- the acquiring team and Holliday -- will be open to a multiyear deal. They'll get more back.

I'd rather they throw $$$ at CC.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 09:08 AM
It definitely will. And, these days, getting a big-name player to pass on his first shot at free agency in order to sign a LTC in Cincinnati is a much harder sell than it was, back in the dayBoras is his agent which means he will test the waters unless his teams gives him a ridiculous contract offer.

Krusty
08-21-2008, 09:13 AM
Before I trade Votto and offer 100 million to sign Holliday, I offer the same contract to Texieria for five years and shift Votto to LF.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 09:50 AM
Before I trade Votto and offer 100 million to sign Holliday, I offer the same contract to Texieria for five years and shift Votto to LF.Boras laughs at you ... the asking price is going to be $200M for either Holliday or Texieria.

Benihana
08-21-2008, 10:19 AM
Boras laughs at you ... the asking price is going to be $200M for either Holliday or Texieria.

And then the teams laugh back. No way Tex gets $200M, and I doubt Holliday will either. Not sure how much it would take, but I doubt they'll get north of $200MM.

FWIW, I would start off by offering Holliday something in the range of 6 years $110MM, and see where it goes from there. I doubt the Reds do anything with Teixeira now that Alonso is signed.

lollipopcurve
08-21-2008, 10:20 AM
Boras is his agent which means he will test the waters unless his teams gives him a ridiculous contract offer.

You're right. I'm sure the Reds won't be that team.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 10:21 AM
And then the teams laugh back. No way Tex gets $200M, and I doubt Holliday will either. Not sure how much it would take, but I doubt they'll get north of $200MM.Holliday will not be a free agent until after 2009 ... and Boras has a history of getting his top clients money that no one expected.

Benihana
08-21-2008, 10:21 AM
Before I trade Votto and offer 100 million to sign Holliday, I offer the same contract to Texieria for five years and shift Votto to LF.

and Alonso? Not saying we should write the guy in stone into the lineup for the next ten years, but they did just sign him to (I believe) the biggest amateur contract in team history- like it or not, that's a hard thing to discount.

Benihana
08-21-2008, 10:22 AM
Holliday will not be a free agent until after 2009 ... and Boras has a history of getting his top clients money that no one expected.

Read the initial proposed scenario at the top of the thread. And Boras does do that...sometimes. He has also fallen short quite a bit.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 10:25 AM
Read the initial proposed scenario at the top of the thread. And Boras does do that...sometimes. He has also fallen short quite a bit.not with his top clients ... he falls short with guys who aren't that good or have issues. The deal he got Andruw Jones(2 yrs/$36M) even looks pretty ridiculous now.

Tex, Manny and Holliday are going to cash in on monster paydays with Boras.

And a guy like Hudson who just shattered his wrist is extreme high risk and would only make sense if they move Phillips to SS which we have seen no indication the team is interested in doing.

Will M
08-21-2008, 12:49 PM
Matt Holliday is a very good player but he is NOT what the Reds need. Between Votto, EE, Alonso & Frazier we have four players who may be best suited for 1B or LF. We are set in RF and 2B. Hopefully between Dickerson and/or Stubbs CF is covered. We do not have a SS in our organization who can play the position defensively and OPS .700 .
As for catcher we could likely live with the trio of Hanigan/Castillo/Tatum if we had enough offense from other positions. What offense they can give us is yet to be determined. As for 3B I don't think EE is going to get it done here.
I would actually be willing to give Rosales or Valaika a shot here in 2009 to see what they could do.

If I were Walt finding a SS is my #1 priority. If Hardy really is available I go after him hard.

Jpup
08-21-2008, 12:54 PM
Matt Holliday is a very good player but he is NOT what the Reds need. Between Votto, EE, Alonso & Frazier we have four players who may be best suited for 1B or LF. We are set in RF and 2B. Hopefully between Dickerson and/or Stubbs CF is covered. We do not have a SS in our organization who can play the position defensively and OPS .700 .
As for catcher we could likely live with the trio of Hanigan/Castillo/Tatum if we had enough offense from other positions. What offense they can give us is yet to be determined. As for 3B I don't think EE is going to get it done here.
I would actually be willing to give Rosales or Valaika a shot here in 2009 to see what they could do.

If I were Walt finding a SS is my #1 priority. If Hardy really is available I go after him hard.

Alex Gonzalez is going to save us. He's the next Anderson Machado.

Big Klu
08-21-2008, 05:32 PM
Alex Gonzalez is going to save us. He's the next Anderson Machado.

"Mr. Anderson. We've been...expecting you."

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/matrix/images/thumb/3/32/Neo.jpg/300px-Neo.jpg

PuffyPig
08-21-2008, 05:50 PM
I doubt that the Reds will offer what would be needed to sign either Holliday or Texeira.

If they wanted lots of money wrapped up in a LF type, they would have extended Dunn.

Choosing to not pay big bucks to Dunn was an organizational direction. It's points away from Holliday and Tezeira.

RedsManRick
08-22-2008, 01:17 AM
I doubt that the Reds will offer what would be needed to sign either Holliday or Texeira.

If they wanted lots of money wrapped up in a LF type, they would have extended Dunn.

Choosing to not pay big bucks to Dunn was an organizational direction. It's points away from Holliday and Tezeira.

Both of those guys are better athletes than Dunn, play much better defense, and hit for a higher batting average. Not saying that makes up the diference, but I don't think the decision to not offer Dunn an extension was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat so much as it was the rejection of a big contract for Adam Dunn and his unique skill set.

Matt700wlw
08-22-2008, 01:54 AM
I haven't done the math, but it seems like a lot of ex-Coors players put up numbers somewhere between their splits.

Fogg's HR totals seem to be a bit much.....

Benihana
08-22-2008, 09:43 AM
Both of those guys are better athletes than Dunn, play much better defense, and hit for a higher batting average. Not saying that makes up the diference, but I don't think the decision to not offer Dunn an extension was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat so much as it was the rejection of a big contract for Adam Dunn and his unique skill set.

Couldn't agree more.

PuffyPig
08-22-2008, 11:35 AM
Both of those guys are better athletes than Dunn, play much better defense, and hit for a higher batting average. Not saying that makes up the diference, but I don't think the decision to not offer Dunn an extension was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat so much as it was the rejection of a big contract for Adam Dunn and his unique skill set.

I didn't say it was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat.

It was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat at a non-skill position. I don't think it matters that Holliday or Texeira play LF better than Dunn. The Reds can not afford to pay their LF $20M per season.

jojo
08-22-2008, 12:39 PM
I didn't say it was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat.

It was the rejection of a big contract for a big bat at a non-skill position. I don't think it matters that Holliday or Texeira play LF better than Dunn. The Reds can not afford to pay their LF $20M per season.

The nice thing about Tex is that he's one of those "easy to find guys" who isn't so easy to find because while anyone should be able to play his non-skill position, he actually adds defensive value when he plays firstbase.

Holliday is more of a neutral defender at his "anyone should be able to play it" position.