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OnBaseMachine
08-21-2008, 01:22 AM
In his last 10 starts Bronson is starting to pitch like he did his first two seasons in Cincinnati. Take a look at his 10 starts since that disastrous start in Toronto where he allowed 10 runs in just one inning of work:

63.2 IP, 56 H, 7 HR, 26 ER, 25 BB/47 K, 3.70 ERA

That includes the game at Wrigley Field back in early July when the wind was blowing out and homeruns were flying all over the park that day. Seven of his 10 starts have been quality starts. This is a very encouraging sign. Earlier in the year his velocity was down and he wasn't commanding his curveball well but that seems to be a thing of the past now. He seems to be on the right track again. Having an effective Bronson Arroyo penciled in behind a healthy Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto makes this a very good rotation going into 2009 IMO.

KronoRed
08-21-2008, 01:29 AM
I hope he keeps it up for the rest of the year and Walt trades him for a kings ransom come the offseason.

Me no trust Arroyo ;)

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2008, 01:32 AM
Yeah, I would deal Arroyo for a great haul but I wouldn't just give him away. I still think he's got a couple above average seasons left in the tank. If they can get something good for him, deal him. If not then keep him.

Kc61
08-21-2008, 01:36 AM
His fastball seemed excellent tonight. Really makes a big difference when Arroyo has that good velocity.

WVRedsFan
08-21-2008, 01:42 AM
it's interesting that we tend to value pitching over offense, but as tonight showed, it's rare when a gem of a pitching performance leads to a win. Very rare as in 1-39 with this particular team. That's the record the Reds have when getting less than 3 runs.

Unfortunately, that is the way it's going to be unless Walt Jocketty obtains some offense for this team. The lineup is a list of hackers who rarely make intelligent decisions at the plate and thus, well, lose. What good is it to have a great starting staff and even a good bullpen if your team cannot score runs?

Even the best pitching staffs allow about 4 runs a game, so your offense should get 5 runs, right? The Reds since the AS break aren't even averaging 4 runs which means trouble.

Pitching is golden, but as we've learned the hard lesson that offense is also important, you need both an offense, pitching, and defense. We may have solved one of the problems, but there are two more to look at. It may be that we have to give up one or two of our sacred cows (Arroyo, Encarnacion, and even Votto come to mind) to get where we are consistently scoring runs and allowing less.

Maybe it was the early part of this century when we were getting hit hard and the staff was little more than pitching batting practice, but the offense has steadily declined over the last few years. It's time to pay attention to that part of the game along with the defense.

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2008, 01:50 AM
I'm pretty confident Walt will find some solid offensive players. He's usually pretty good at acquiring hitters via trade (Edmonds, Rolen, McGwire) or off the scraps (Ludwick, converting Ankiel). Don't be surprised if Walt tries to go in the Ludwick route and acquire a guy like Nelson Cruz of the Rangers to play left field next season. Cruz just turned 28 last month but is currently hitting .344/.434/.710 - 1.144 OPS in AAA with 37 homeruns. There was a rumor right around the deadline that Walt was interested in him and it wouldn't surprise me if Jocketty revisits that in the offseason in hopes of landing another Ludwick.

NDRed
08-21-2008, 01:53 AM
I still don't know why the fan base of a team as pitching-deprived as the Reds clamor for the trade of a proven MLB starter. Maybe with the sudden emergence of Cuerto and Volquez many forget that we usually head into spring training with starters:

Starter 1
Starter 3
Starter 5
????
????

I would love to start 2009 with:

Volquez
Harang
Cuerto
Arroyo
????

Call me crazy!!

Yeah I know he commands a big salary- good starters usually do. The last couple of year with the Reds and a stretch of 10 games plus 1n 2008 is a good MLB starter.

I don't have to pay the salary- I just want a better team in 2009 and beyond and starting pitching is hard to replace.

WVRedsFan
08-21-2008, 01:55 AM
I'm pretty confident Walt will find some solid offensive players. He's usually pretty good at acquiring hitters via trade (Edmonds, Rolen, McGwire) or off the scraps (Ludwick, converting Ankiel). Don't be surprised if Walt tries to go in the Ludwick route and acquire a guy like Nelson Cruz of the Rangers to play left field next season. Cruz just turned 28 last month but is currently hitting .344/.434/.710 - 1.144 OPS in AAA with 37 homeruns. There was a rumor right around the deadline that Walt was interested in him and it wouldn't surprise me if Jocketty revisits that in the offseason in hopes of landing another Ludwick.

Let's keep our finers crossed. RZ went out around here about 9:00, and I got so bored, I fell asleep in the La-Z-Boy until Cordero struck out the third straight hitter. I've never done that before, but to me there's nothing more boring than a team inept at scoring runs and playing defense (though there were some good plays tonight when I was awake). Seeing hitter hack at horrible pitches just adds to the frustration.

Everyone was gung-ho about batting Jay Bruce third. I say it's time to move him down. He's really struggling.

oregonred
08-21-2008, 02:08 AM
IMO, Walt's gotta be licking his chops to get some improved and reasonable cost offensive production in here next year. Lots of cash to play with and the draw of an offensive oriented ballpark.

I think GABP is proving not to be a ridiculous hitters park (due to Reds actually having some real pitching and the Reds poor offense), but the perception is out there which should help Walt more easily fill some offensive gaps in the offseason.

I scanned through the results and saw only 2 wins with less than three runs -- which really surprised me. I did see 7 or 8 wins with three runs or less. Better teams find a way to win a reasonable handful of 3-2, 3-1, 3-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 1-0 over the course of a season It's amazing to see just how many of those types of games you see over the course of any given week in both leagues.

Just an average night last night -- 12 teams (40%) scored three runs or less. I suspect that's not far off the average over the course of the 2008 season.

IslandRed
08-21-2008, 02:36 AM
it's interesting that we tend to value pitching over offense, but as tonight showed, it's rare when a gem of a pitching performance leads to a win. Very rare as in 1-39 with this particular team. That's the record the Reds have when getting less than 3 runs.

You're mixing your stats. The Reds are not 1-39 when they receive "a gem of a pitching performance." They're 1-39 (actually 2-39 after tonight) when they have a dog of a hitting performance (two runs or less). That's not the same thing at all. In fact, after tonight, their won-lost record when allowing two runs or less is 28-2.

reds44
08-21-2008, 03:05 AM
Let's keep our finers crossed. RZ went out around here about 9:00, and I got so bored, I fell asleep in the La-Z-Boy until Cordero struck out the third straight hitter. I've never done that before, but to me there's nothing more boring than a team inept at scoring runs and playing defense (though there were some good plays tonight when I was awake). Seeing hitter hack at horrible pitches just adds to the frustration.

Everyone was gung-ho about batting Jay Bruce third. I say it's time to move him down. He's really struggling.
I did the same thing. Fell asleep in the 4th and woke up in the 7th. That was the first time I've ever passed out during a Reds game before.

camisadelgolf
08-21-2008, 04:34 AM
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Aaron Harang
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Bronson Arroyo
5. Micah Owings

The others:
Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson
Matt Maloney
Bobby Livingston
Matt Belisle
Nick Masset

Personally, if I'm bent on trading for a quality hitter, I'd be more willing to part with the likes of 'the others'. Granted, they don't have a ton of value, but if you package Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney, or Matt Belisle with some other minor leaguers, you could acquire some pretty good hitting talent since teams are so desperate for pitching.

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 08:58 AM
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Aaron Harang
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Bronson Arroyo
5. Micah Owings

The others:
Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson
Matt Maloney
Bobby Livingston
Matt Belisle
Nick Masset

Personally, if I'm bent on trading for a quality hitter, I'd be more willing to part with the likes of 'the others'. Granted, they don't have a ton of value, but if you package Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney, or Matt Belisle with some other minor leaguers, you could acquire some pretty good hitting talent since teams are so desperate for pitching.

Maloney has limited value. Belisle has next to zero.

princeton
08-21-2008, 09:35 AM
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Aaron Harang
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Bronson Arroyo
5. Micah Owings

The others:
Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson
Matt Maloney
Bobby Livingston
Matt Belisle
Nick Masset

Personally, if I'm bent on trading for a quality hitter, I'd be more willing to part with the likes of 'the others'. Granted, they don't have a ton of value, but if you package Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney, or Matt Belisle with some other minor leaguers, you could acquire some pretty good hitting talent since teams are so desperate for pitching.


it's a common mistake, but if YOU don't like a guy, then it's likely that other teams don't like him either, and will only give you back something that they don't like. Moving even more guys that you don't think much about just gets you more that another team doesn't really like.

it's a great time to trade Arroyo. Did anyone hear about his waiver status? Has he already been waived, claimed and no deal worked out, taking him off the market? Or has he not been waived, or completely cleared?

OldXOhio
08-21-2008, 09:39 AM
Maloney has limited value. Belisle has next to zero.

True that. As the saying goes "two of crap is crap....if we really wanted to screw 'em we'll give 'em three". I know these guys aren't crap, but you get the point.

Ltlabner
08-21-2008, 09:43 AM
it's a common mistake, but if YOU don't like a guy, then it's likely that other teams don't like him either, and will only give you back something that they don't like.

Its a common mistake, but if YOU think a guy stinks it doesn't necessarly mean all other teams do too.

princeton
08-21-2008, 10:12 AM
Its a common mistake, but if YOU think a guy stinks it doesn't necessarly mean all other teams do too.


Susan-- Mrs. Duvall's sixth grade teacher's pet-- could that be you?

fearofpopvol1
08-21-2008, 11:37 AM
I don't have a problem trading Arroyo, but I'm not a fan of giving him away because of his contract. That's just stupid. Value needs to be and should be gotten for Arroyo if he is moved.

He is still a league average pitcher (if not slightly better).

HokieRed
08-21-2008, 11:44 AM
Arroyo's last ten starts, together with the uncertainties surrounding Harang, are, IMO, a powerful argument for keeping him. Next year's staff will be much too inexperienced and uncertain without him.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 11:47 AM
The dude laid an egg for 3 months straight. I'm not a fan of holding that up as an example for the young pitchers.

Try to move him--you'll get payroll space and some talent in return.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 11:49 AM
He is still a league average pitcher (if not slightly better).

This season? Based on what?

This season he's been Milton circa 2006.

SMcGavin
08-21-2008, 12:04 PM
This season? Based on what?

This season he's been Milton circa 2006.

Arroyo 2006 xFIP: 4.40
Arroyo 2007 xFIP: 4.76
Arroyo 2008 xFIP: 4.35

And since you brought it up:
Milton 2006 xFIP: 5.56

You're basing your opinion on what Arroyo's results have been in 2008. That's the most relevant for the team's success this year, but we all know that current ERA is not a very good predictor of future ERA. What matters is what he's likely to do over the next few seasons. Trading Arroyo now would be a classic example of selling low.

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 12:33 PM
An interesting tid-bit on Arroyo from fangraphs:



Biggest decrease in CB%: Bronson Arroyo, -9.90% (This is probably a classification issue — THT notes that his curve/slider are very similar, and lo and behold, he throws 9.6% “more” sliders this year.)

If he's dropping his arm angle more often and throwing what amounts to a flatter, more horizontal curve -- aka slider, that would quite possibly explain the increased HR/hit rate. That slurve works well when it catches the batter off guard, but thrown too often it's a meat ball. And as SMcGavin has shown, Arroyo's big problem this year has been his HR rate. His K and BB rates are right in line with his career.

PuffyPig
08-21-2008, 12:41 PM
it's interesting that we tend to value pitching over offense, but as tonight showed, it's rare when a gem of a pitching performance leads to a win. Very rare as in 1-39 with this particular team. That's the record the Reds have when getting less than 3 runs.



Huh????

A gem of a pitching performance usually (as opposed to rarely)leads to a Reds win. It's rare for the Reds to win when they don't score runs, but I would suggest that most teams don't win many games when they score 2 runs or less.

But to suggest (as you have done) that the Reds are 1-39 when they get a gem of a pitching performance is inaccurate. The 1-39 record included many games where the Reds pitching sucked.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 12:46 PM
Arroyo 2006 xFIP: 4.40
Arroyo 2007 xFIP: 4.76
Arroyo 2008 xFIP: 4.35

And since you brought it up:
Milton 2006 xFIP: 5.56

You're basing your opinion on what Arroyo's results have been in 2008. That's the most relevant for the team's success this year, but we all know that current ERA is not a very good predictor of future ERA. What matters is what he's likely to do over the next few seasons. Trading Arroyo now would be a classic example of selling low.

Soft-tossers get better as they move into their mid-thirties?

PuffyPig
08-21-2008, 12:48 PM
Arroyo 2006 xFIP: 4.40
Arroyo 2007 xFIP: 4.76
Arroyo 2008 xFIP: 4.35

And since you brought it up:
Milton 2006 xFIP: 5.56

You're basing your opinion on what Arroyo's results have been in 2008. That's the most relevant for the team's success this year, but we all know that current ERA is not a very good predictor of future ERA. What matters is what he's likely to do over the next few seasons. Trading Arroyo now would be a classic example of selling low.

Surely you must have learned by now that you can only use xFIP to show that the Reds players are worse than their actual stats. It can never, ever be used to show that they have actually played better than their actual stats.

Reds players are only lucky, never unlucky. Poor performances are always the result of sucking. Good performances can be either earned or lucky.


As many have said this year, Arroyo 2008 is the same version we have always had, it's just that he's been very unlucky this year. Most here have chosen to ignore that fact, though most of those same posters mentioned (repeatedly) how lucky he was in 2006 (he was). His comeback in his last 10 starts was merely a regression to the norm.

Arroyo is a starter who will give you 200+ innings with an ERA around 4.50. Trade him if you get good value (the same can be said for any player), but don't dump him.

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 12:54 PM
Arroyo 2006 xFIP: 4.40
Arroyo 2007 xFIP: 4.76
Arroyo 2008 xFIP: 4.35

And since you brought it up:
Milton 2006 xFIP: 5.56

You're basing your opinion on what Arroyo's results have been in 2008. That's the most relevant for the team's success this year, but we all know that current ERA is not a very good predictor of future ERA. What matters is what he's likely to do over the next few seasons. Trading Arroyo now would be a classic example of selling low.

Belisle was the king of xFIP.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 12:54 PM
Statisticians need to work harder at not dumping things into "luck" and "absence of luck" piles.

Like what RMR is offering.

There's a reason his actual performance has suffered this season. Find out what it is. And see if it can actually be corrected.

Guaranteeing Arroyo 30 starts next season and hoping and praying that in fifteen of them he doesn't take the Reds altogether out of competing in those games (and with this defense, this should be a concern) is problematic to me. I think better bets exist in this market (at Arroyo's salary level), and I think Jocketty can find them.

fearofpopvol1
08-21-2008, 01:42 PM
This season? Based on what?

This season he's been Milton circa 2006.

I didn't say this season. During his tenure with the Reds, he has been an above average league starter. Whether it's with the Reds or another team, his numbers will be better next year. They will be around league average or better. I'll bet whatever you want on it.

Jpup
08-21-2008, 01:44 PM
This season? Based on what?

This season he's been Milton circa 2006.

that's crazy talk. :confused:

Will M
08-21-2008, 01:51 PM
Trading Arroyo now would be a classic example of selling low.

true. same with Harang. unless an offer came that is very good I suspect we'll see them both in Cinci next year. lots of IFs but the 1-2-3-4 SP next year could be a strength of the team.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 01:59 PM
Just because the Reds would be selling Arroyo "low" doesn't mean that he can't go lower. Some players never rebound.

PuffyPig
08-21-2008, 02:30 PM
Just because the Reds would be selling Arroyo "low" doesn't mean that he can't go lower. Some players never rebound.

That's the point of the xFIP discussion. It shows that Arroyo has nothing to rebound from.

Spring~Fields
08-21-2008, 02:53 PM
Just because the Reds would be selling Arroyo "low" doesn't mean that he can't go lower. Some players never rebound.

I have to assume that with Jocketty's history of success that he can find another good starting pitcher to add to the staff, in that event what would be wrong with Arroyo as a fifth starter?

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 02:57 PM
That's the point of the xFIP discussion. It shows that Arroyo has nothing to rebound from.

Sure he does. He's got to show he can keep the ball in the park with greater regularity and not give up so many line drives. GMs largely don't care if he's been the victim of that ridiculous spectre "bad luck."

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 02:58 PM
I have to assume that with Jocketty's history of success that he can find another good starting pitcher to add to the staff, in that event what would be wrong with Arroyo as a fifth starter?

Arroyo can bring back a decent offensive return and create payroll space for that better pitcher.

Spring~Fields
08-21-2008, 03:00 PM
Arroyo can bring back a decent offensive return and create payroll space for that better pitcher.

I like that idea also.

princeton
08-21-2008, 03:05 PM
Trading Arroyo now would be a classic example of selling low.

I'd be asking for a lot more than you would, apparently

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2008, 05:09 PM
While I was on the south-side, Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo cranked up a beaut, one runs and three hits over seven innings in a one-run win over the Cubbies.

And Arroyo has a plan on how to make the Reds competitive next year, plus he didn’t need to send a babbling letter that makes little sense.

Here’s his plan. And it ain’t half-bad.

“The pitching staff is solid enough to win plenty of ballgames,” he said. “We really need a starting catcher — unless they are going to go with Ryan Hanigan and I haven’t seen him enough. We need a solid guy you can run out there five days a week, a guy who can hit a little bit, a regular guy instead of dividing it up between a couple of guys.

“We’re going to need two other guys who can hit, probably outfielders,” Arroyo said. “Our infield is decently set if (shortstop) Alex Gonzalez comes back. So we need a couple of outfielders to replace those home runs we lost (Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr.).

“We just need a lineup, from top to bottom, that feels the same when we pitch against the other team’s lineup, so we don’t have as many weaks spots.” Arroyo added. “I mean, with the Cubs I’m facing a seven-hole hitter like Mark DeRosa, who hits .280. That’s the feeling we need to project to other teams.”

DeRosa had two of the three hits Arroyo gave up over seven innings Wednesday in a 2-1 win. And Hanigan was Arroyo’s catcher, contributing a double that led to the Reds tying the game, 1-1, in the sixth.

“We have enough right now in our starting staff and bullpen to win this division, for sure,” Arroyo said.

Maybe Arroyo should have written that letter that management sent to the fans a frew days ago. At least he has something to say that would give fans hope. And I don’t know this to be true, but my guess is that letter was not written by owner Bob Castellini and/or Walt Jocketty (although both signed it, so they must believe it). That letter had PR schmaltz and spin all over it.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

HokieRed
08-21-2008, 05:13 PM
Arroyo's assessment seems basically true to me. We have a number 8 hitter, only he's batting 4th. Need two outfielders, catcher, and, I increasingly fear, a 3baseman.

nate
08-21-2008, 05:18 PM
That's a reasonable assessment.

SMcGavin
08-21-2008, 07:30 PM
Statisticians need to work harder at not dumping things into "luck" and "absence of luck" piles.



Even if you think Arroyo's sudden HR spike is real, not unlucky, and it's not going to get better: His FIP, which does not adjust HR rate at all, is 4.71. Predicting Bronson as a liability going forward is a stance not at all backed up by his history of performance.

SMcGavin
08-21-2008, 07:33 PM
Belisle was the king of xFIP.

That one year was all the data we have on Belisle. The Reds yanked him after 29 innings this year, so sadly we'll never know if he would have normalized as expected in the years after that.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 07:33 PM
Even if you think Arroyo's sudden HR spike is real, not unlucky, and it's not going to get better: His FIP, which does not adjust HR rate at all, is 4.71. Predicting Bronson as a liability going forward is a stance not at all backed up by his history of performance.

Throw worse numbers after bad.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 07:34 PM
That one year was all the data we have on Belisle. The Reds yanked him after 29 innings this year, so sadly we'll never know if he would have normalized as expected in the years after that.

Sadly?

SMcGavin
08-21-2008, 07:37 PM
Sadly?

I'd have much preferred the Belisle experiment to 11 starts of 7.71 ERA Josh Fogg and 8 starts of 7.93 ERA Homer Bailey. Even if I thought Belisle had only a 10% of working out, I'd still have preferred it.

SMcGavin
08-21-2008, 07:38 PM
Throw worse numbers after bad.

Says the guy using ERA as a predictor of future success.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 07:39 PM
Says the guy using ERA as a predictor of future success.

Nah. Not ERA. Declining stuff, age, dinger-proneness, pitcher-abuse point poster boy. Toxic combo.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 07:40 PM
I'd have much preferred the Belisle experiment to 11 starts of 7.71 ERA Josh Fogg and 8 starts of 7.93 ERA Homer Bailey. Even if I thought Belisle had only a 10% of working out, I'd still have preferred it.

Yeah, boy, talk about not tapping the resources.

klw
08-21-2008, 08:07 PM
“The pitching staff is solid enough to win plenty of ballgames,” he said. “We really need a starting catcher — unless they are going to go with Ryan Hanigan and I haven’t seen him enough. We need a solid guy you can run out there five days a week, a guy who can hit a little bit, a regular guy instead of dividing it up between a couple of guys.

]
I would be interested if anyone ran this quote past Bako or Valentin. could be nest start there could be a couple of Bull Durham moments. "Here comes the fastball."

GAC
08-21-2008, 10:19 PM
I hope he keeps it up for the rest of the year and Walt trades him for a kings ransom come the offseason.

Me no trust Arroyo ;)

Exactly.

I thought he was an abused pitcher anyway. ;)

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 10:30 PM
I'd have much preferred the Belisle experiment to 11 starts of 7.71 ERA Josh Fogg and 8 starts of 7.93 ERA Homer Bailey. Even if I thought Belisle had only a 10% of working out, I'd still have preferred it.

Fogg has an xFIP of 5.64. That means that he should be due for a turnaround.

SMcGavin
08-22-2008, 01:39 AM
Fogg has an xFIP of 5.64. That means that he should be due for a turnaround.

Are you even making a point here? By the way, you made this argument against xFIP earlier in the year when the bullpen was struggling. I believe the direct quote was "tell me when the success starts". How's that looking now?

Patrick Bateman
08-22-2008, 03:14 AM
Well Fogg's ERA probably will lower. He'll still suck, in his normal epic proportions, but even he has been a 5-something ERA pitcher his entire life.

Homer Bailey
08-22-2008, 06:06 AM
I'm 100000% behind what Bronson has said. If we get a real hitting coach and a manager that knows that getting guys on base is a good thing I think that we will have a lineup. We can not possibly have a manager/front office that will put up with having a Corey Patterson and Paul Bako in the lineup. It's the most disgraceful and embarassing thing to have those guys in our lineup. Went to two games at Wrigley this week and feeled soooooo embarrassed watching the Reds run out Dusty/Corey/Paul/Fogg. Something has to change.

I'm one of the few on this site that believes the Reds are not even close to what they need to contend. There is nothing I have seen from this team that makes me believe they are close to contending. Every good thing they have is offset by Dusty Baker. Jay Bruce will be a Brandon Phillips under Dusty. B-Phil will OBP .320 under Dusty. Watching this offense under Dusty is the most predictable thing in Major League Baseball. Automatic outs unless there are home runs. I think right now is the lowest point I have ever felt as a Reds fan.

edabbs44
08-22-2008, 06:56 AM
Are you even making a point here? By the way, you made this argument against xFIP earlier in the year when the bullpen was struggling. I believe the direct quote was "tell me when the success starts". How's that looking now?

My point was that you bash ERA in one post, then use it to bash Fogg and Homer in another.

redsmetz
08-22-2008, 08:35 AM
I'm 100000% behind what Bronson has said. If we get a real hitting coach and a manager that knows that getting guys on base is a good thing I think that we will have a lineup. We can not possibly have a manager/front office that will put up with having a Corey Patterson and Paul Bako in the lineup. It's the most disgraceful and embarassing thing to have those guys in our lineup. Went to two games at Wrigley this week and feeled soooooo embarrassed watching the Reds run out Dusty/Corey/Paul/Fogg. Something has to change.

I'm one of the few on this site that believes the Reds are not even close to what they need to contend. There is nothing I have seen from this team that makes me believe they are close to contending. Every good thing they have is offset by Dusty Baker. Jay Bruce will be a Brandon Phillips under Dusty. B-Phil will OBP .320 under Dusty. Watching this offense under Dusty is the most predictable thing in Major League Baseball. Automatic outs unless there are home runs. I think right now is the lowest point I have ever felt as a Reds fan.

And yet you say you agree with Bronson "100,000%"? I was very impressed with what Arroyo had to say. But he's very plainly saying that we've got the arms to do (that would, seemingly, at the present, include Fogg who pitched well yesterday), but he wasn't saying anything about Baker or Pole (although I have my doubts about him). But for you to whole heartedly agree with Arroyo and then say you're one of the few who believe the Reds are a long way off (are we reading the same board???), is quite an enigma.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2008, 09:00 AM
While I was on the south-side, Cincinnati’s Bronson Arroyo cranked up a beaut, one runs and three hits over seven innings in a one-run win over the Cubbies.

And Arroyo has a plan on how to make the Reds competitive next year, plus he didn’t need to send a babbling letter that makes little sense.

Here’s his plan. And it ain’t half-bad.

“The pitching staff is solid enough to win plenty of ballgames,” he said. “We really need a starting catcher — unless they are going to go with Ryan Hanigan and I haven’t seen him enough. We need a solid guy you can run out there five days a week, a guy who can hit a little bit, a regular guy instead of dividing it up between a couple of guys.

“We’re going to need two other guys who can hit, probably outfielders,” Arroyo said. “Our infield is decently set if (shortstop) Alex Gonzalez comes back. So we need a couple of outfielders to replace those home runs we lost (Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr.).

“We just need a lineup, from top to bottom, that feels the same when we pitch against the other team’s lineup, so we don’t have as many weaks spots.” Arroyo added. “I mean, with the Cubs I’m facing a seven-hole hitter like Mark DeRosa, who hits .280. That’s the feeling we need to project to other teams.”

DeRosa had two of the three hits Arroyo gave up over seven innings Wednesday in a 2-1 win. And Hanigan was Arroyo’s catcher, contributing a double that led to the Reds tying the game, 1-1, in the sixth.

“We have enough right now in our starting staff and bullpen to win this division, for sure,” Arroyo said.

Maybe Arroyo should have written that letter that management sent to the fans a frew days ago. At least he has something to say that would give fans hope. And I don’t know this to be true, but my guess is that letter was not written by owner Bob Castellini and/or Walt Jocketty (although both signed it, so they must believe it). That letter had PR schmaltz and spin all over it.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

Arroyo needs to get his own house in order before criticizing the offense.

nate
08-22-2008, 09:44 AM
Arroyo needs to get his own house in order before criticizing the offense.

It seems like a sound analysis of the situation to me.

Jpup
08-22-2008, 09:47 AM
Arroyo needs to get his own house in order before criticizing the offense.

we all have our issues. Arroyo is calling a spade, a spade, as we say here in Podunk, KY. ;)

Falls City Beer
08-22-2008, 10:07 AM
It seems like a sound analysis of the situation to me.

Except for the part where he says they have enough pitching to win the division.

They have enough pitching to finish ahead of the Pirates.

nate
08-22-2008, 10:22 AM
Except for the part where he says they have enough pitching to win the division.

They have enough pitching to finish ahead of the Pirates.

The 2005 offense with this pitching staff would have them close to leading, if not leading outright, the division. Even last year's offense might have them closer to the top than the bottom.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2008, 10:52 AM
The 2005 offense with this pitching staff would have them close to leading, if not leading outright, the division. Even last year's offense might have them closer to the top than the bottom.

Bunk. This team is 26th in team ERA.

BRM
08-22-2008, 10:58 AM
Bunk. This team is 26th in team ERA.

OPSA of .797. Good for 15th in the NL.

edabbs44
08-22-2008, 11:08 AM
Arroyo needs to get his own house in order before criticizing the offense.

Fun fact: Bronson has allowed 5 or more runs in 41% of his starts this year.

RedsManRick
08-22-2008, 02:19 PM
Fun fact: Bronson has allowed 5 or more runs in 41% of his starts this year.

I would absolutely love to see a runs allowed or earned runs distribution by start for each starter as a regular feature. Any sort of averaged statistic for pitchers really obscures the game unit nature of their craft. QS sort of gets at this, but it's not enough. A guy who throws 9 shutouts and a 20 run stinker has done more to help his team than the guy with 10 2-run starts.

princeton
08-22-2008, 02:28 PM
I would absolutely love to see a runs allowed or earned runs distribution by start for each starter as a regular feature. Any sort of averaged statistic for pitchers really obscures the game unit nature of their craft. QS sort of gets at this, but it's not enough. A guy who throws 9 shutouts and a 20 run stinker has done more to help his team than the guy with 10 2-run starts.

that'd turn into an Adam Dunn thread pretty quickly.

Screwball
08-22-2008, 02:30 PM
Bunk. This team is 26th in team ERA.

The Reds' abysmal defense has had a lot to do with that as well.

nate
08-22-2008, 02:32 PM
Bunk. This team is 26th in team ERA.

24th, big guy!

;)

edabbs44
08-22-2008, 02:35 PM
I would absolutely love to see a runs allowed or earned runs distribution by start for each starter as a regular feature. Any sort of averaged statistic for pitchers really obscures the game unit nature of their craft. QS sort of gets at this, but it's not enough. A guy who throws 9 shutouts and a 20 run stinker has done more to help his team than the guy with 10 2-run starts.

Exactly my point. Same for hitters, but then the ever popular "clutch" debate might arise from the ashes.

redsmetz
08-22-2008, 02:50 PM
Fun fact: Bronson has allowed 5 or more runs in 41% of his starts this year.

I only count ten games out of 27 - that's 37%, not 41%. Except for one game, all of those 5+ run games were earned except for one (on 4/18, he let up 5 runs, 4 were earned). Still nothing to write home about, but it's not 41%. Correct me if I'm missing something.

edabbs44
08-22-2008, 03:01 PM
I only count ten games out of 27 - that's 37%, not 41%. Except for one game, all of those 5+ run games were earned except for one (on 4/18, he let up 5 runs, 4 were earned). Still nothing to write home about, but it's not 41%. Correct me if I'm missing something.

3 in April
2 in May
3 in June
2 in July
1 in August

Falls City Beer
08-22-2008, 04:11 PM
3 in April
2 in May
3 in June
2 in July
1 in August

That's just flat-out spittin' the bit right there, chirruns.

Falls City Beer
08-22-2008, 04:12 PM
Incidentally, the defense has been much better since the trade of Griffey and Dunn. In case anyone cares.

redsmetz
08-22-2008, 05:10 PM
3 in April
2 in May
3 in June
2 in July
1 in August

I stand corrected.

jojo
08-23-2008, 11:50 AM
Fogg has an xFIP of 5.64. That means that he should be due for retirement.

Fixed that. :cool:

corkedbat
08-23-2008, 12:07 PM
I have no problem with Arroyo returning, but if the team can land a free agent like Lowe, Perez, ***Fantasy Alert!*** Sabathia, etc. (for no talent outlay) to go with Harang, Volquez, Cueto and maybe Owings, I'd have no problem packaging Bronson in a deal for an OF bat, SS and/or young C either.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 12:29 PM
After last night's complete game effort his last 11 starts now look like this:

72.2 IP, 61 H, 7 HR, 27 ER, 27 BB/50 K, 3.37 ERA

His season ERA is down to 5.07. That 10 runs in 1 IP game in Toronto killed his ERA. If not for that game it would a respectable 4.55 right now, but you can't take out the bad games...

RedsManRick
08-27-2008, 01:02 PM
After last night's complete game effort his last 11 starts now look like this:

72.2 IP, 61 H, 7 HR, 27 ER, 27 BB/50 K, 3.37 ERA

His season ERA is down to 5.07. That 10 runs in 1 IP game in Toronto killed his ERA. If not for that game it would a respectable 4.55 right now, but you can't take out the bad games...

You can't take out the bad games, but with pitchers, I think it is certainly more appropriate to consider the proportion of starts in which they provide the team a good chance to win. Those 10 runs only cost us 1 game.

Of pitchers with at least 100 IP, Arroyo is tied for 35th of 62 with a 50% QS rate. Now quality start isn't perfect by any means, but when you consider that his ERA is 52nd of those 62, it helps to provide a picture of the unique distributive nature of pitching performance.

A batter has 600 PA, making for a pretty robust distribution in which no single PA or small set of PA can have a big influence on averages. Starters make at most 35 or 36 starts. One horrible start can completely skew the averages even though that impact is on a single game. I don't advocate ignoring that horrific start. But it's important to be smart about what we really should be measuring.

_Sir_Charles_
08-27-2008, 01:18 PM
It's nice to have a pitcher that actually THINKS on the mound. Of course, Dick Pole should be seeing this stuff too and make sure his young pitchers do the same.


Arroyo picked up a clue from home plate umpire Dana DeMuth when he batted in the third inning and DeMuth called him out on what Arroyo thought was a low pitch.

“He rang me up on balls I thought were really low,” said Arroyo. “So I went to the mound and test him out. He called those strikes, too, so I said, ‘Beautiful,’ and tried to stay way, way low with my pitches, down at the bottom of the zone, right at the knees. And those got me all those ground balls.”

WVRedsFan
08-27-2008, 01:27 PM
It's nice to have a pitcher that actually THINKS on the mound. Of course, Dick Pole should be seeing this stuff too and make sure his young pitchers do the same.

I don't think I would have told anyone about that. But, like you, I think that was pretty smart.

Falls City Beer
08-27-2008, 02:31 PM
Maybe he can get his trade value back. Probably not. He's still owed a ton.

Also: beware of good starts against teams that have fallen out of the playoff picture.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 02:50 PM
Maybe he can get his trade value back. Probably not. He's still owed a ton.

Also: beware of good starts against teams that have fallen out of the playoff picture.

Eight of those 11 starts have been against teams with records of .500 or better.

Reds1
08-27-2008, 03:37 PM
Maybe he can get his trade value back. Probably not. He's still owed a ton.

Also: beware of good starts against teams that have fallen out of the playoff picture.

Do you really want to trade? We are going to need someone and a guy who can have a line in 11 starts like this: 72.2 IP, 61 H, 7 HR, 27 ER, 27 BB/50 K, 3.37 ERA - I want to keep. We have already let go of payroll. We need to add offense. Arroyo gave some props to Dick Pole for changing his grip on slider and it has really helped. CG 1ER at GABP against the stros is pretty darn good. I'm just saying.... :)

Falls City Beer
08-27-2008, 03:44 PM
Eight of those 11 starts have been against teams with records of .500 or better.

I'm not arguing that he hasn't been better (how could you get much worse than his first three months?); I'm saying it's dangerous to look at a start like last night's and think he's capable of cranking up complete games with regularity.

He's a HR-prone flyball pitcher in a HR park with a bad defense (and a new propensity to walk batters)--it's still going to be that way next year if he's back.

(Cf. Marquis' 7 inning shut out of the Pirates today.)

Arroyo is EXACTLY the kind of piece you trade. And this is coming from a guy who realizes just how much starting pitching depth this team *still* needs.

Reds1
08-27-2008, 04:32 PM
I'm not arguing that he hasn't been better (how could you get much worse than his first three months?); I'm saying it's dangerous to look at a start like last night's and think he's capable of cranking up complete games with regularity.

He's a HR-prone flyball pitcher in a HR park with a bad defense (and a new propensity to walk batters)--it's still going to be that way next year if he's back.

(Cf. Marquis' 7 inning shut out of the Pirates today.)

Arroyo is EXACTLY the kind of piece you trade. And this is coming from a guy who realizes just how much starting pitching depth this team *still* needs.

No doubt you could try and trade, but not sure you can get a similar type pitcher for him and if he truly has figured out his slider then making he can stick. Do harang's plan to fix HRs and maybe he works, but I agree I would see what you could get for him.

GAC
08-27-2008, 05:51 PM
Do you really want to trade? We are going to need someone and a guy who can have a line in 11 starts like this: 72.2 IP, 61 H, 7 HR, 27 ER, 27 BB/50 K, 3.37 ERA - I want to keep. We have already let go of payroll. We need to add offense.

And unless they do so in the off-season, then why hang onto an 11 mil/yr pitcher if they are "rebuilding", and rebuilding with youth?

I could understand if they were going to go after players to make a run in the "Arroyo - Harang - Cordero" window of the next 2-3 years; but from what I am seeing right now it doesn't look that way.

OnBaseMachine
09-17-2008, 12:37 AM
Bronson's last 15 starts:

100 IP, 85 H, 10 HR, 33 BB/68 K, 2.88 ERA

His overall ERA is down to 4.57 and it's 4.11 if you cherry pick the 10 runs in one inning game in Toronto. Overall it's been another solid season for Bronson. I hope the Reds keep him around unless they are knocked over with a trade offer.

OnBaseMachine
09-17-2008, 12:40 AM
Arroyo has mostly made good music since. Over his last 15 starts, he is 11-3 with a 2.88 ERA, and he's 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA over his last six starts.

What changed? Arroyo said it was less of a wake-up call and more staying ahead of the scouting reports. He changed the grip on his sinker a few starts after the Toronto game.

"After these guys see me for a long time, it always becomes a big ol' chess match," Arroyo said. "You can almost see their guy at the plate thinking and guessing if it's going to be a fastball away or breaking ball away. Me being able to bring something new to the table the last couple of months -- I can see the look on guys' faces when they're swinging and missing on my sinker. I really haven't thrown that pitch on a consistent basis since 1996 or '97 in the Minor Leagues. To have command of that and get some good movement has helped me tremendously."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080916&content_id=3487770&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

cincrazy
09-17-2008, 12:41 AM
I thought it was hilarious that so many people were screaming earlier in the season that Bronson was finished. He is very consistent in the fact that he's not consistent at all. He'll have an awful 10 game stretch, and then be unhittable for two or more months. If he can ever put together a stretch like this for a full season, look out.

Team Clark
09-17-2008, 12:44 AM
True that. As the saying goes "two of crap is crap....if we really wanted to screw 'em we'll give 'em three". I know these guys aren't crap, but you get the point.

I have no doubt that those were John Schuerholz's exact words when making the Reitsma deal.

VR
09-17-2008, 12:48 AM
The pitching really has me optimistic about 09. They are 7th in the majors the last 30 days w/ a 3.69 earnie, 14-11. Getting it done at all levels, starting...middle relief...closing.

SteelSD
09-17-2008, 01:40 AM
I thought it was hilarious that so many people were screaming earlier in the season that Bronson was finished. He is very consistent in the fact that he's not consistent at all. He'll have an awful 10 game stretch, and then be unhittable for two or more months. If he can ever put together a stretch like this for a full season, look out.

He did that in 2006. He should have been actively shopped then.

RedLegSuperStar
09-17-2008, 09:41 AM
Fay -


No. 15 meant a lot to Bronson Arroyo.

“It’s huge to get over that plateau,” he said.



Arroyo (15-10) went seven innings, allowing the two runs on five hits. He walked none and struck four. He’s 5-0 with a 1.45 ERA over his last six starts. He’s 11-3 with 2.88 ERA over his last 15 starts.



Arroyo's streak started after the 10-run thrashing he took in the Toronto. But he credits a change made well after that start for his continued dominance.



“After Toronto, I didn’t change anything,” Arroyo said. “I had a couple of good starts, where I felt better and started getting more confident and comfortable. I changed up my sinker grip, probably three or four starts after that. I’ve been commanding the inside of the plate on righties a lot better than I ever have in my career. With my breaking ball, guys are always looking away. It’s allowed me to keep guys off balance.”



This had the makings of the tough loss until Edwin Encarnacion lashed a two-out, bases-loaded double into left field to clear the bases and give the Reds a 3-1 lead in the sixth. Arroyo singled with one out -- the Reds' hit of the night. After Chris Dickerson hit into a fielder's choice, Jeff Hairston Jr. singled and Joey Votto walked. Encarnacion fell behind 0-2. He took a ball and shot one to the wall in left.

That got the offense going. The Reds added one in the seven and three in the eighth.

Troy Glaus, a late add to the lineup, hit one out off Arroyo to lead off the second. The run Arroyo gave up came on a solo home run by Aaron Miles in the seventh.

The Reds answered with a run in the bottom of the inning. Corey Patterson singled with one out. He went to third on Paul Bako's single. Pinch-hitter Danny Richar got Patterson in with fielder's choice.

Patterson doubled in two runs in the eighth.

Roy Tucker
09-17-2008, 10:04 AM
I have no doubt that those were John Schuerholz's exact words when making the Reitsma deal.

What ever happened to Bubba and Bong?

Falls City Beer
09-17-2008, 01:53 PM
15 wins? Oh the trades you will make...

RedsManRick
09-17-2008, 02:14 PM
Funny how this played out... When the fundamentals are there, regression to the mean is a matter of time. His 2008 stats look awfully similar to his 2007 ones, save for a small uptick in his 3 FIP stats, which more or less offset each other, and a lower LOB% which hurts his ERA a little.

Per Fangraphs:

Season Team K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 AVG WHIP BABIP LOB% FIP
2006 Reds 6.88 2.39 2.88 1.16 .246 1.19 .279 78.0% 4.15
2007 Reds 6.66 2.69 2.48 1.20 .281 1.40 .318 74.0% 4.57
2008 Reds 7.22 3.03 2.38 1.30 .275 1.41 .314 71.4% 4.49

Wins and Losses and ERA are often just as distracting as they are useful in determining how well a guy has pitched. When it comes to how well he's likely to pitch in the future, they're functionally useless.

flyer85
09-17-2008, 03:02 PM
The offseason would be the perfect time for a GM to turn Arroyo into a haul of players who could help in 2010 and beyond.

Falls City Beer
09-17-2008, 06:44 PM
The offseason would be the perfect time for a GM to turn Arroyo into a haul of players who could help in 2010 and beyond.

Without necessarily short-circuiting the short-term, too. I'm not all that pessimistic about finding pitching production comparable to Arroyo's likely 2009 output. It's out there.

Highlifeman21
09-17-2008, 09:34 PM
15 wins? Oh the trades you will make...

Oh the trades that'll never happen...

Strikes Out Looking
09-17-2008, 09:44 PM
Without necessarily short-circuiting the short-term, too. I'm not all that pessimistic about finding pitching production comparable to Arroyo's likely 2009 output. It's out there.

Ok, I'll bite. Exactly who else will eat the innings and win 14 or more games that can be got and at what price?