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Krusty
08-21-2008, 09:14 AM
Do you think the Reds will go in a full rebuilding mode or reload and become a major player in free agency and in the trade market this offseason?

Chip R
08-21-2008, 09:17 AM
I'm wondering how one reloads when there weren't any bullets in the chamber to begin with.

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 09:19 AM
Being a major player in the trade market means dealing youth, which would include guys like Votto, Bruce, Frazier, Stubbs, Bruce, etc.

Being a major player in the FA market means that there has to be major players available in FA. It also means you will need to be spending oodles of $$$$$$.

I don't see either being an option this year. Hence the reason why I have been clamoring for a "plan" for the past few years.

Krusty
08-21-2008, 09:21 AM
I'll be the first to say reload. The Reds aren't paying Dusty Baker 3 million a year to watch a rebuilding process the next three years. With over 30 million freed in the departures of Griffey, Dunn, Ross, Hatteberg, Stanton, Weathers, Bako, Valentin, and others' contracts off the books, the Reds will be looking to acquire a major bat like Texieria, Ramirez and Holliday.

Krusty
08-21-2008, 09:23 AM
I'm wondering how one reloads when there weren't any bullets in the chamber to begin with.

Then I guess you say load. Payroll flexibility. Isn't it what's it all about?

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 09:30 AM
I'll be the first to say reload. The Reds aren't paying Dusty Baker 3 million a year to watch a rebuilding process the next three years. With over 30 million freed in the departures of Griffey, Dunn, Ross, Hatteberg, Stanton, Weathers, Bako, Valentin, and others' contracts off the books, the Reds will be looking to acquire a major bat like Texieria, Ramirez and Holliday.

That would probably equate to Teixeira and 8 replacement level players coming in. Does that make this team playoff worthy?

Unassisted
08-21-2008, 09:42 AM
I'd prefer rebuild, but I imagine Castellini is pushing for reload. He's not a patient person.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 09:51 AM
I'm wondering how one reloads when there weren't any bullets in the chamber to begin with.beware of those vapor bullets.

ochre
08-21-2008, 09:52 AM
I'm wondering how one reloads when there weren't any bullets in the chamber to begin with.
FIFY

Raisor
08-21-2008, 09:53 AM
Without Dunn, you're going to have to rebuild, and it's going to take a long time.

BRM
08-21-2008, 09:55 AM
Without Dunn, you're going to have to rebuild, and it's going to take a long time.

Raisor, you just don't get it. Winning is inevitable now that Dunn is gone.

flyer85
08-21-2008, 09:58 AM
Rebuilding could happen within two years if the GM makes a lot of good decisions and has a big enough pair to make tough decisions and then be right about them. The conservative route we have seen the Reds take for so long will not work, Jocketty has to be very aggressive and very smart ... and a bit lucky as well.

Sea Ray
08-21-2008, 10:02 AM
I would advise Reds fans not to get their hopes up for a big FA signing.

REDREAD
08-21-2008, 10:02 AM
I'll be the first to say reload. The Reds aren't paying Dusty Baker 3 million a year to watch a rebuilding process the next three years. With over 30 million freed in the departures of Griffey, Dunn, Ross, Hatteberg, Stanton, Weathers, Bako, Valentin, and others' contracts off the books, the Reds will be looking to acquire a major bat like Texieria, Ramirez and Holliday.

I think the team can improve itself in the W-L column while rebuilding.

I know others may say this is a half-hearted way of rebuilding, and everything should be burnt to the ground, but I disagree.

Milwaukee built itself up pretty well without burning the entire team to the ground. It's not necessary to do a Marlins' style slash and burn.

There is no question in my mind that this offseason Jocketty is going to add one or two outfielders that are ready to play and produce now. I don't know if it will come through trade or FA, but it will happen. If Walt can trade for a decent OF with maybe 3 years of experience, that player may still be contributing when the next group of talent from the minors arrives..

cincrazy
08-21-2008, 10:04 AM
I would like to say rebuild. But I can see this team throwing major money at a FA, which I don't really agree with.

Sea Ray
08-21-2008, 10:06 AM
My guess is Walt will look to add a RH left fielder like a Cody Ross. Then he'll wait for his young team to jell like the Rays did from 2007 to 2008

flyer85
08-21-2008, 10:06 AM
I would like to say rebuild. But I can see this team throwing major money at a FA, which I don't really agree with.if they do it won't be a top one. Guys like Manny, Tex and CC are way beyond the Reds price range ... unless of course you want one player eating a 3rd of the payroll for the forseeable future.

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 10:07 AM
Without Dunn, you're going to have to rebuild, and it's going to take a long time.

I think we might be going slightly overboard here.

Krusty
08-21-2008, 10:13 AM
if they do it won't be a top one. Guys like Manny, Tex and CC are way beyond the Reds price range ... unless of course you want one player eating a 3rd of the payroll for the forseeable future.

Didn't we say the same last year and the Reds went out and threw how many millions for Francisco Cordero?

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 10:13 AM
I still try to make a push during the window when Bruce, Votto, Volquez, and Cueto are all cheap. We're actually positioned fairly well, as we've got most positions set. The problem is that we need impact players in the positions which are open, and that's going to be quite difficult.

nate
08-21-2008, 10:14 AM
I think one needs to define what "rebuild" and "reload" means.

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 10:18 AM
I think one needs to define what "rebuild" and "reload" means.

Rebuilding means making decisions with the intent of creating a future competitive window. Reloading means the window is open and you're making decisions on how to take advantage of it now. I think the implications are fairly obvious.

Raisor
08-21-2008, 10:30 AM
I think we might be going slightly overboard here.

I just didn't feel the need to type out "Without Dunn, or an upper level offensive player that we'd have to probably pay more then we would have Dunn..."

BRM
08-21-2008, 10:34 AM
I just didn't feel the need to type out "Without Dunn, or an upper level offensive player that we'd have to probably pay more then we would have Dunn..."

Laziness...

nate
08-21-2008, 10:35 AM
I just didn't feel the need to type out "Without Dunn, or an upper level offensive player that we'd have to probably pay more then we would have Dunn..."

Welcome to THE SHOW, rook!

;)

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 10:47 AM
I just didn't feel the need to type out "Without Dunn, or an upper level offensive player that we'd have to probably pay more then we would have Dunn..."

So basically "If they don't reload, they will have to rebuild".

jesusfan
08-21-2008, 11:03 AM
I say trade for Holliday or another young outfielder to put in LF or Sign Kotsay to a 1 or 2year deal with Dickerson/Stubbs in CF and Bruce in RF or maybe the reds try Owings in LF. But, I would not throw a boatload of money at Pat Burrell or Milton Bradley. If you are going to spend money, spend it on a few players that will not break the bank but can still go a long way in helping you not only compete, but WIN...

Sign Mark Kotsay, Sign Casey Blake to play 3rd (Trade Edwin in Holliday or young OF deal), Sign Jose Vidro cheap (maybe returning to form?), Sign Derek Lowe if price is right for 2 years, re-sign Lincoln, sign Juan Cruz to team with Burton and Cordero.

1. Chris Dickerson- CF
2. Casey Blake- 3rd
3. Jay Bruce- RF
4. Brandon Phillips- 2nd
5. Joey Votto- 1st
6. Mark Kotsay/Holliday/?- LF(Holliday would bat 4th, Phillips 6th)
7. Jeff Keppinger/Gonzo- SS
8. Ryan Hanigan/FA/Trade-C

Bench
Ryan Freel-OF, INF
Jose Vidro- INF
Kepp/Gozno- INF
FA/Trade Catcher
Owings- OF?


Rotation
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Derek Lowe
3. Aaron Harang
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Bronson Arroyo

Bullpen
Mike Lincoln
Bill Bray
Daniel Herrera
Josh Roenick
Juan Cruz
Jared Burton
CO-CO
Massett/Owings????? (Guys i'm not sure on)

traderumor
08-21-2008, 11:07 AM
While the cliche usually is not seeing the forest from the trees, the Reds need to seek to be improved at every position next year. Some of those are in-house solutions with another year of experience for young talent like Bruce, Votto, EE, Cueto. Some will come in-house from bounceback years, e.g. Harang and Cordero. Some will come from trading a talent to fill multiple holes, such as Phillips, Arroyo. Some will come from minor leaguers getting over the hump, like perhaps Dickerson or Stubbs. Regardless, this a bad team overall and anything less than continuing a roster overhaul that started with shipping out Griffey and Dunn will be unacceptable.

Highlifeman21
08-21-2008, 11:16 AM
So basically "If they don't reload, they will have to rebuild".

I look at it more as they can't reload, so they should rebuild.

Unfortunately, I don't see a rebuild on the horizon, but rather more shuffling of the deck chairs. By moving Griffey and Dunn, I'm hoping that finally gives this organization a direction, but I fear that we'll see more of the status quo, and the losing will continue.

As a couple have already said, we don't have the bullets to reload, so unless Bob's given Walt the go ahead to break the $100 Million payroll tier we won't see much difference made to this roster in the offseason.

Sure, Walt could sell the kids for food, but we need to keep Cueto, Votto and Bruce, and I'm skeptical as to the return we'd get for anything still down on the farm.

So, to reload, Arroyo would be the 1st logical player to go, then followed by probably EE and then it would get interesting as to what to do with Phillips. Right now he's our best trading chip, and would help the most if we were to rebuild.

Roy Tucker
08-21-2008, 11:34 AM
It looks more like a tear-down and rebuild to me.

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 11:38 AM
It looks more like a tear-down and rebuild to me.

Besides Harang, Cordero, and Arroyo, what's left to "tear-down"? EE is 25 and just entering his first arb year...

Chip R
08-21-2008, 11:58 AM
Besides Harang, Cordero, and Arroyo, what's left to "tear-down"? EE is 25 and just entering his first arb year...


I think pretty highly of EE but he might be a valuable trading chip. He hasn't exactly flourished here and he has a lot of talent. 3B is a difficult position to fill and some teams may think the Reds have dropped the ball on him like they did with Dunn. Even though he's arb eligible he's not going to make a lot of money. Don't get rid of him just because but if the Reds can get someone for him that's an upgrade at another position - or even 3rd - they should consider moving him.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 12:02 PM
So far, this is a rebuild.

BRM
08-21-2008, 12:04 PM
Do you guys think Dusty is the right manager if Walt is truly set on a rebuild?

OnBaseMachine
08-21-2008, 12:07 PM
Do you guys think Dusty is the right manager if Walt is truly set on a rebuild?

Heck no.

RedsBaron
08-21-2008, 12:11 PM
Do you guys think Dusty is the right manager?

No ( I revised the question).

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 12:13 PM
Do you guys think Dusty is the right manager if Walt is truly set on a rebuild?

Must... bite... tongue...

Degenerate39
08-21-2008, 12:14 PM
I think the Reds have enough young talent but they need to rebuild.

Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Phillips. Is the core right now. With Alonso joining the mix probably next year at the end of the season.

I don't think buying free agents would make any difference to the team right now. Just go young.

BRM
08-21-2008, 12:16 PM
Must... bite... tongue...

C'mon Rick. I know how big of a Dusty fan you are. ;)

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 12:19 PM
I think the Reds have enough young talent but they need to rebuild.

Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Volquez, Phillips. Is the core right now. With Alonso joining the mix probably next year at the end of the season.

I don't think buying free agents would make any difference to the team right now. Just go young.

I wish this philosophy was embraced before some other decisions were made.

Roy Tucker
08-21-2008, 12:31 PM
Besides Harang, Cordero, and Arroyo, what's left to "tear-down"? EE is 25 and just entering his first arb year...

I thought the ridding of Junior and Dunn (and to a lesser extent, Ross) was the tear-down.

Getting rid of Dunn gutted the offense and, for all his deficiencies in the field and at-bat, getting rid of Junior seemed to take the heart of the ball club. I felt like the Reds lost a lot when those two moved on.

Chip R
08-21-2008, 12:43 PM
Do you guys think Dusty is the right manager if Walt is truly set on a rebuild?


If he doesn't like it, he can resign.

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 12:45 PM
If he doesn't like it, he can resign.

:pray::pray::pray::pray::pray::pray::pray::pray:

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 12:52 PM
Dusty's gone next season by the AS break if they don't have a winning record. Then y'all can move on to bashing the next guy who has no impact on the W-L record. Just be patient.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 12:55 PM
Walt will try to move another older contract in the offseason.

Jpup
08-21-2008, 12:56 PM
I said load for the load of $#%$^ they are always trying to sell us on.

KronoRed
08-21-2008, 01:24 PM
Blow it up right, trade everyone making over the minimum, load up with a ton of youngsters and throw them at the wall to see what sticks.

I'm now a big fan of the Marlins plan.

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 01:27 PM
Blow it up right, trade everyone making over the minimum, load up with a ton of youngsters and throw them at the wall to see what sticks.

I'm now a big fan of the Marlins plan.

Remember, one of the key moves in the Marlins plan was trading Josh Beckett for Hanley Ramirez. Aaron Harang for Elvis Andrus, Taylor Teagarden, etc. anybody?

Spring~Fields
08-21-2008, 01:27 PM
Do you guys think Dusty is the right manager if Walt is truly set on a rebuild?

If August is any indication of what Walt will get from Dusty, the answer is an easy one.

Bakers batting tips, hitting instructions, strategies and theories are really paying off in August, coincidence, chance, bad luck? All the players are just bad ?



August GP AB BA OBP SLG
B. Phillips 18 68 .206 .247 .471
J. Keppinger 18 64 .203 .246 .250
E. Encarnacion 17 60 .200 .273 .367
J. Hairston Jr. 7 16 .188 .278 .250
Paul Bako 8 25 .160 .250 .200
Adam Dunn† 10 36 .139 .244 .167
David Ross 6 15 .133 .316 .200
Jay Bruce 18 71 .225 .257 .465
Ryan Hanigan 5 17 .235 .235 .471
C. Patterson 17 49 .245 .283 .429
J. Valentin 14 28 .250 .323 .500
Joey Votto 12 39 .282 .300 .385

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=avg&season=2008&split=44&seasonType=2&type=reg

How does every batter of the Cincinnati Reds go bad during the same period of time?

AmarilloRed
08-21-2008, 01:44 PM
I voted for re-load. We will clearly need to get a left fielder in the off-season(preferably a right-hander), but I think we are not that far away. Our bullpen is much improved over last year, and we have some real talent down at AAA. We have a good starting 4 if Harang comes back healthy, although we still need a fifth starter. I do believe Dickerson and Hanigan have the potential to be starters at their prospective positions, although we might see what we can do at SS. We have a good off-season, and I think we could really surprise some people next year. I am an optimist, though.

Falls City Beer
08-21-2008, 02:00 PM
Remember, one of the key moves in the Marlins plan was trading Josh Beckett for Hanley Ramirez. Aaron Harang for Elvis Andrus, Taylor Teagarden, etc. anybody?

I'd be good with a move like that. I think trading Harang could be a true keystone move if played right.

Spring~Fields
08-21-2008, 03:04 PM
I'd be good with a move like that. I think trading Harang could be a true keystone move if played right.

I don’t think that Jocketty would be adverse to trading Harang, Arroyo or Cordero if he can get a solid return or any of the other alleged future, if he can get a good return. I mean that we are working off of the assumption here with the facts that Jocketty is a proven veteran GM with a history of success vs what we have been conditioned to or use to with the other GM's. I think that we can trust him and believe in him.

traderumor
08-21-2008, 03:46 PM
Remember, one of the key moves in the Marlins plan was trading Josh Beckett for Hanley Ramirez. Aaron Harang for Elvis Andrus, Taylor Teagarden, etc. anybody?Except Josh Beckett was coming off a "clutch" postseason performance and the Marlins got to sell high. The Reds would have had to sell Harang this offseason to even come close to comparing with Beckett for Ramirez. Somebody trading for Harang now will be hoping to get an undervalue deal, which means that Walt will likely hold him and hope his performance returns, which is what Reds' GM's have been doing for years. Hopefully, he will take someone like Phillips and see if he can bring back an overvalue return that fills multiple holes and leave Harang here to see if he can recover his value.

RedsManRick
08-21-2008, 05:06 PM
Except Josh Beckett was coming off a "clutch" postseason performance and the Marlins got to sell high. The Reds would have had to sell Harang this offseason to even come close to comparing with Beckett for Ramirez. Somebody trading for Harang now will be hoping to get an undervalue deal, which means that Walt will likely hold him and hope his performance returns, which is what Reds' GM's have been doing for years. Hopefully, he will take someone like Phillips and see if he can bring back an overvalue return that fills multiple holes and leave Harang here to see if he can recover his value.

The other side of the argument is that Beckett had never thrown 180+ IP and had a history of blister problems.

Certainly Harang's problems this season are a real issue and probably scuttle any ideas along this line, but I don't think we should forget that Beckett was hardly without risk.

Rojo
08-21-2008, 05:12 PM
Rebuilding is riskier than reloading, especially with an organization that doesn't know how to develop pitching.

Cueto, Volquez -- that's why you "reload".

Big Klu
08-21-2008, 05:55 PM
I say trade for Holliday or another young outfielder to put in LF or Sign Kotsay to a 1 or 2year deal with Dickerson/Stubbs in CF and Bruce in RF or maybe the reds try Owings in LF. But, I would not throw a boatload of money at Pat Burrell or Milton Bradley. If you are going to spend money, spend it on a few players that will not break the bank but can still go a long way in helping you not only compete, but WIN...

Sign Mark Kotsay, Sign Casey Blake to play 3rd (Trade Edwin in Holliday or young OF deal), Sign Jose Vidro cheap (maybe returning to form?), Sign Derek Lowe if price is right for 2 years, re-sign Lincoln, sign Juan Cruz to team with Burton and Cordero.

1. Chris Dickerson- CF
2. Casey Blake- 3rd
3. Jay Bruce- RF
4. Brandon Phillips- 2nd
5. Joey Votto- 1st
6. Mark Kotsay/Holliday/?- LF(Holliday would bat 4th, Phillips 6th)
7. Jeff Keppinger/Gonzo- SS
8. Ryan Hanigan/FA/Trade-C

Bench
Ryan Freel-OF, INF
Jose Vidro- INF
Kepp/Gozno- INF
FA/Trade Catcher
Owings- OF?


Rotation
1. Edinson Volquez
2. Derek Lowe
3. Aaron Harang
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Bronson Arroyo

Bullpen
Mike Lincoln
Bill Bray
Daniel Herrera
Josh Roenick
Juan Cruz
Jared Burton
CO-CO
Massett/Owings????? (Guys i'm not sure on)

According to several Indians fans I know, The Tribe have a "gentleman's agreement" with Blake to sign him as a free agent. How true that might be, I don't know.

Count me in the camp who wants absolutely no part of Matt Holliday with the Reds.

Caveat Emperor
08-21-2008, 06:15 PM
Rebuilding is riskier than reloading, especially with an organization that doesn't know how to develop pitching.

Cueto, Volquez -- that's why you "reload".

OTOH -- you have Cueto & Volquez under team control for at least 4 more years. Bruce for another 5, Votto for another 5.

The kids are going to be here for a while as long as they can stay healthy.

traderumor
08-21-2008, 06:17 PM
The other side of the argument is that Beckett had never thrown 180+ IP and had a history of blister problems.

Certainly Harang's problems this season are a real issue and probably scuttle any ideas along this line, but I don't think we should forget that Beckett was hardly without risk.While I would expect you to defend your argument in some form, I don't think you realistically think that a Ramirez like take is possible with Harang, even last offseason. Beckett was showing obvious signs of blooming into the dominant ace that he was expected to be and Harang has never been more than a "steady Eddie" good performer, and was actually exceeding expectations of what folks expected out of him from his prospect days through his time with the Reds.

Rojo
08-21-2008, 06:41 PM
OTOH -- you have Cueto & Volquez under team control for at least 4 more years. Bruce for another 5, Votto for another 5.

The kids are going to be here for a while as long as they can stay healthy.


Maybe I'm unclear on the definitions. To me, rebuilding means 4-5 years, reloading means get close next year and go for it the year after (or something like that).

edabbs44
08-21-2008, 08:01 PM
Maybe I'm unclear on the definitions. To me, rebuilding means 4-5 years, reloading means get close next year and go for it the year after (or something like that).

Agreed. Reloading means short term. Weak FA class means to reload you need to deal youth. Since we want to reload around the youth, it means reloading is pretty darn near impossible. That's why Wayne's approach of fence sitting left him without a job. If you are going to try and win, you better really try and win. If you don't you'll end up with contracts like Cordero's and Arroyo's when you are trying to rebuild.

GAC
08-21-2008, 08:23 PM
I'm wondering how one reloads when there weren't any bullets in the chamber to begin with.

Would you want to let Dusty play with a loaded gun? He'd probably shoot himself in the foot. :p:

GAC
08-21-2008, 09:16 PM
I'd prefer rebuild, but I imagine Castellini is pushing for reload. He's not a patient person.

I agree he's not patient; but where has he been pushing (other then with his mouth)?

In the two years he has been owner he has spent the majority money, when looking at individual contracts issued, on three pitchers (Arroyo, Harang, Cordero), and basically ignored impact position players (other then the Phillip's contract).

It use to be at the other extreme - filling the rotation with pitching rejects/ reclamation projects and going after those 5-toolers. Now it's pretty much the other way around.

The reason I say this is because he (the owner) is now entering a very opportune time with the clearing out of numerous contractual obligations at season's end. And not just Jr's and Dunn's either.

And yet they are sending a very mixed signal to the fans. And I'm referring to that letter to the fans thread. They brag about signing their draft picks, including a couple of 16 yr old Venezuelans, and then talk about being a competitive team next year?

I have no problem whatsoever with those moves; but I'm not gullible enough to believe the '09 team is going to be much better when none of those players are going to impact the team next year.

Unless Jocketty tends to sign some impact players for next year. But so far they look like they are rebuilding, but are afraid to come out and publically say that to the fans. They are trying to straddle the fence for the sake of ticket sales.

If Castellini wants the fans to believe him when he says their objective is to make this team competitive in '09 then more major moves need to be made in the off-season to support that position.

Get off the fence. If you're rebuilding then why pay players like Arroyo, Harang, and even Cordero (who aren't getting any younger), an average of 35 mil/yr collectively (almost half of your yearly payroll) for the next few years in a rebuilding process? Shouldn't they be attempting to find those immediate impact players to complement that?

It's going to be an interesting off-season in seeing what they do. ;)

HokieRed
08-21-2008, 09:24 PM
I agree it's going to be an interesting off season. I'm completely in favor of rebuilding, believing that the attempt to reload (which is an odd expression since we haven't been loaded in many years) ruins the possibility of actually doing it right by way of rebuilding. Unfortunately a major obstacle to the rebuilding is that we do still have a lot of money on the books, going to guys who are not worth 50% of the payroll. I don't think it will be easy to move Harang for anything that will really seem adequate to Reds fans; July has already shown that moving an 11 million dollar Arroyo is not very likely; and there's absolutely no way to move Cordero that I can see without eating a big part of that ridiculous contract. In addition, we've still got about 10 million--IIRC--going to Gonzalez and Freel next year.

nate
08-21-2008, 09:40 PM
I am in favor of not rebloating.

Krusty
08-21-2008, 10:56 PM
I'm quite sure Walt didn't just sit back and observed and didn't have a longterm plan in place before jettison Dunn and Griffey elsewhere.

GAC
08-22-2008, 08:27 PM
I'm quite sure Walt didn't just sit back and observed and didn't have a longterm plan in place before jettison Dunn and Griffey elsewhere.

That may be true. My problem was that though out the season, when Walt and Bob were asked about Dunn, they kept saying how much they wanted to resign Adam ("we'll possibly address that in the off-season"), and stating that if you lose someone like Dunn then you just have to go out and replace him. Now what impression does that leave with the fans?

OK. Dunn is now gone. The question is..... what are the plans to replace him going into '09?

Personally.... I really don't expect them to make a big splash in the FA market in the off-season. I hope I am wrong, but I am very skeptical at this stage. Due to attendance they aren't going to break even this year, they have numerous players who are due some nice raises in '09, they have arb cases coming up.

Walt's finding out real quick he's not in St Louis anymore. ;)

Krusty
08-23-2008, 08:39 AM
That may be true. My problem was that though out the season, when Walt and Bob were asked about Dunn, they kept saying how much they wanted to resign Adam ("we'll possibly address that in the off-season"), and stating that if you lose someone like Dunn then you just have to go out and replace him. Now what impression does that leave with the fans?

OK. Dunn is now gone. The question is..... what are the plans to replace him going into '09?

Personally.... I really don't expect them to make a big splash in the FA market in the off-season. I hope I am wrong, but I am very skeptical at this stage. Due to attendance they aren't going to break even this year, they have numerous players who are due some nice raises in '09, they have arb cases coming up.

Walt's finding out real quick he's not in St Louis anymore. ;)


Walt isn't going to tip his hand in regards to players the Reds might have interest in which would give agents and other teams a upper hand in trade talks and contract negotiations.

Spring~Fields
08-23-2008, 12:36 PM
Walt isn't going to tip his hand in regards to players the Reds might have interest in which would give agents and other teams a upper hand in trade talks and contract negotiations.

We know that Walt has to wait and see what is available when the season is over.

Though I get the impression that Jocketty is looking for pitching and defense along the lines of young and reasonably priced (not necessarily cheap) in a strategy that would also increase his future trading chips in addition to helping the team next year.

MississippiRed
08-23-2008, 01:48 PM
I agree it's going to be an interesting off season. I'm completely in favor of rebuilding, believing that the attempt to reload (which is an odd expression since we haven't been loaded in many years) ruins the possibility of actually doing it right by way of rebuilding. Unfortunately a major obstacle to the rebuilding is that we do still have a lot of money on the books, going to guys who are not worth 50% of the payroll. I don't think it will be easy to move Harang for anything that will really seem adequate to Reds fans; July has already shown that moving an 11 million dollar Arroyo is not very likely; and there's absolutely no way to move Cordero that I can see without eating a big part of that ridiculous contract. In addition, we've still got about 10 million--IIRC--going to Gonzalez and Freel next year.

Last night I heard Jeff Brantley say that the Reds "aren't that far away." The pitching will be great next year, according to him. This is what scares me the most: Jocketty getting into the Krivsky mindset and thinking that a tweak here and there will lead to the World Series. (You know the disease: IF Keppinger stays healthy, and Hairston comes back and plays CF and Edwin finally breaks out and Dickerson is that rare AAAA player who becomes great and IF, IF, IF.)

Spring~Fields
08-23-2008, 01:58 PM
With the Reds getting 2968 AB/TPA 3325, against right handed pitching vs 1379 AB/TPA 1585 against left handed pitching it looks like Jocketty needs to find players that can get on base more often against the right handerís if he hopes that the Reds will score more runs in 2009.



2008 Season vs right handed pitching
BA OBP SLG OPS
Paul Janish .100 .200 .100 .300
Norris Hopper .125 .250 .125 .375
Andy Phillips .190 .292 .333 .625
C. Patterson .204 .240 .370 .611
Paul Bako .216 .304 .295 .598
J. Keppinger .222 .263 .280 .543
E. Encarnacion .226 .296 .449 .745
Ryan Hanigan .250 .250 .250 .500
B. Phillips .252 .295 .403 .698
Ryan Freel .261 .297 .290 .587
J. Valentin .266 .320 .415 .735
Jay Bruce .286 .322 .490 .812
Joey Votto .290 .350 .465 .815
J. Hairston Jr. .321 .359 .448 .807
J. Cabrera .333 .389 .424 .813
C. Dickerson .393 .469 .714 1.183
Totals .241 .310 .400 .709
Opponents .280 .345 .462 .808

2008 Season vs left handed pitching
BA OBP SLG OPS
C. Dickerson .111 .111 .222 .333
C. Patterson .146 .180 .208 .388
J. Valentin .190 .227 .333 .561
Andy Phillips .200 .226 .300 .526
Jay Bruce .202 .270 .308 .577
Paul Bako .206 .239 .426 .666
Ryan Hanigan .231 .231 .538 .769
Adam Rosales .250 .250 .250 .500
Norris Hopper .269 .321 .269 .591
Joey Votto .276 .347 .440 .787
B. Phillips .305 .361 .609 .971
E. Encarnacion .305 .414 .534 .948
J. Cabrera .313 .333 .688 1.021
Paul Janish .333 .407 .375 .782
Ryan Freel .339 .388 .435 .824
J. Keppinger .368 .427 .509 .937
J. Hairston Jr. .371 .439 .529 .968


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&season=2008&seasonType=2&split=32&cat=avg&order=false&type=reg

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=avg&order=false&season=2008&split=31&seasonType=2&type=reg

GAC
08-23-2008, 06:01 PM
Walt isn't going to tip his hand in regards to players the Reds might have interest in which would give agents and other teams a upper hand in trade talks and contract negotiations.

I fully understand that and don't expect him to publically come out and proclaim who he may be pursuing. No GM, in his right mind does that (unless you wear leather pants).

I'm just saying, looking at what has, and is transpiring, that I don't hold out much hope they are going to make a big splash in the FA market in the off-season.

But we'll see. I'm just not going to get my hopes all worked up, thinking they are going to.... only to be brought low and have those aspirations squashed.

I'll stay low and hope they surprise me. ;)

Krusty
08-23-2008, 06:27 PM
I fully understand that and don't expect him to pubically come out and proclaim who he may be pursuing. No GM, in his rigt mind does that (unless you wear leather pants).

I'm just saying, looking at what has, and is transpiring, that I don't hold out much hope they are going to make a big splash in the FA market in the off-season.

But we'll see. I'm just not going to get my hopes all worked up, thinking they are going to.... only to be brought low and have those aspirations squashed.

I'll stay low and hope they surprise me. ;)


Nobody predicted the Cordero signing and look how the Reds caught everyone offguard. I expect the same thing this offseason. Matt Holliday? If ownership is willing to part with the money, who's to say they won't trade for him. And for those who think they should have kept Adam Dunn if money wasn't an issue, well Holliday is a more complete ballplayer than Dunn. If you're going to pay 15+ million a season, who would you rather have.....Holliday or Dunn?

mth123
08-23-2008, 08:25 PM
The terminology has me a little perplexed. I don't think reload. I don't believe we'll see major acquisitions of established star caliber players, which IMO is what reload means.

Rebuild? Again the terms have me confused. I think of rebuilding as dealing established high dollar players for a collection of high upside young players. IMO, there won't be any of that beyond the recent deals of Dunn and Griffey and in neither case did the Reds acquire a young, high upside prospect.

Build or Load would probably describe what I think they'll do. Not sure which term fits, but I'm guessing the Reds will acquire a couple journeyman stopgaps by dealing from the depth of interesting but not star caliber minor leaguers. By Position, here are some examples of the type of thing that I am guessing will happen.

At catcher, I could see a vet brought in to mentor the staff as well as to mentor the Hanigan's, Tatum's and Castillo's of the world. It won't be a stud like Russell Martin or Brian McCann, but a guy like Bengie Molina makes a lot of sense with Cueto and Volquez on board. The Giants probably want to move his money and need some position prospects. Some combo of guys like Valaika, Maloney, Francisco, etc. may be appealing to the Giants. This could be an area where the Reds try to exchange prospects at areas of depth for a prospect at an area of need. I like Taylor Teagarden myself, and I'd guess the Reds would need to deal Homer Bailey and other guys to get him.

1B? I think this position is earmarked for Alonso, by 2010 at the latest, and I'd guess the Reds would go ahead and move Votto to the OF to clear the path. I'm guessing the Reds may try to recreate a new version of the Aurilia, Hatteberg platoon for a year while Alonso gets ready. I could see the Reds bringing in at least one vet for this spot, probably a guy who has a good clubhouse rep. A RH bat seems logical and Kevin Millar might be a good choice. OTOH, the Reds have some guys who could fill the RH half of a platoon (Rosales, Keppinger) and may prefer a lefty who gets on base and who helps the rest of the IF with his defense. Some one along the lines of Doug Mientkiewicz makes sense. Another option may be to take a year of a guy who is a little pricey or is on the last year of his contract (Adam Laroche?). If this is the route, I'd guess at least the lefty half of this platoon gets shopped mid-2009 with Alonso coming up.

At 2B. Brandon Phillips plain and simple. The Reds won't mess with moving him to SS.

At SS, I think we'll see Gonzalez with Janish and maybe Rosales and Keppinger as fill ins. Hopefully this is another area where the Reds deal some of their prospects for a guy for the future (though Cozart may be becoming that guy). I think Hairston's series of injuries probably takes him out of the mix for this spot or CF and I'd guess he won't be brought back.

I think EdE stays at 3B, but Todd Frazier may be groomed as the heir at that spot. Its possible EdE goes to LF or 1B, but I'd guess the Reds try to pump his trade value by leaving him at 3B where his bat looks a lot better. If EdE steps up, he could become a fixture and stay for a long time with the other guys dealt to fill other needs.

I think Votto plays LF with a late game defensive caddy who hits RH playing behind him. May be a good role for Hopper. Daniel Dorn could be a guy down the road here who's pop may make Votto a nice trade chip at some point, but that is to be seen IMO and for now, I'm thinking Votto becomes a fixture in LF.

CF should probably go to a platoon of Dickerson, who seems to deserve a shot, and Freel who is too expensive to move until he shows some health and some of that $4 Million is already paid out. Stubbs could be ready by mid-season to at least take the RH ABs when hopefully Freel can be dealt.

RF is all Jay Bruce.

Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto and probably Owings will be the rotation. I don't see the team bringing in a big dollar guy or dealing Harang or Arroyo while thier value is down. I could see the team bring in some depth that could push Owings to long relief or possibly free the team to deal Arroyo mid-season 2009. It won't be a big dollar deal IMO. Could be a bounceback candidate coming off of surgery or something along the lines of Chris Carpenter when the cards got him. Freddy Garcia, Jason Jennings and even Carl Pavano come to mind. Depth at AAA will be whoever isn't dealt among Bailey, Thompson, Maloney, Jukich, Livingston, Leure and Ramon Ramirez (who may make the team as a reliever).

The pen will still have Cordero, Burton, Bray and I'd guess Lincoln with some combination of Masset, Herrera, Fisher, Ramirez, Manual, Pelland, and Roenicke rounding it out. Zach Stewart and Sean Watson could emerge by the end of the year and there is always the possibility of a cheap signing coming out of nowhere.

I think the Reds wait for Alonso, Stubbs and maybe Frazier and no big bat will be acquired. I think this offseason is going to be about stopgaps and maybe a few kids for the long term and the team will try to let these guys grow up together.

GAC
08-23-2008, 08:45 PM
Nobody predicted the Cordero signing and look how the Reds caught everyone offguard. I expect the same thing this offseason.

We'll see.

Personally - I think the Cordero signing (contract) is a perfect illustration of a stupid move by this organization. You're going to pay this guy 12mil/yr while starting a youth movement?


Matt Holliday? If ownership is willing to part with the money, who's to say they won't trade for him. And for those who think they should have kept Adam Dunn if money wasn't an issue, well Holliday is a more complete ballplayer than Dunn. If you're going to pay 15+ million a season, who would you rather have.....Holliday or Dunn?

The Rockies are loving the rumors swirling around the possibile availability of Matt (who is a FA after the '09 season). Sure, they'll dangle him to see what the interests are; but in the end, IMHO, he'll resign with the Rockies. They are not going to let Matt walk.

It may be Walt's approach to continue to build up the farm system talent to give him those future trading chips to bring in established players here and there. But even then that is at a minimum probably a couple years away because that young talent has to prove itself and show that value.