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View Full Version : Trade target - Paul Kornerko



GoReds
08-25-2008, 08:31 PM
Simply speculation on my part. But here's the deal. Kornerko will have two years remaining on a five year deal for ~12M/year. He's having a down year this year (buy low!), but over the last three years, his OPS has been 841, 932 and 929.

The tricky thing is to figure out if his slide this year is injury-related or if his skills are declining (he'll be 33 on opening day next year).

He provides the RH bat the Reds need without costing the Reds as much as a Holiday or Texiera would. His defense is probably not much worse than Votto's and it allows Votto to concentrate on becoming a league-average LF'er. His contract expires in two years, allowing time for Alonso or some other prospect to emerge. I don't know what the Sox may want in return, but I can't imagine it would break the Red's prospect bank.

Thoughts?

kheidg-
08-25-2008, 08:41 PM
I'd give them Richar and Masset back for him. Although, I wouldn't mind substituting Masset with Coffey. ;)

wheels
08-25-2008, 08:42 PM
If he were three years younger, I'd say go for it.

I just think 33 is too close to the decline years to risk prospects and cash.

Ltlabner
08-25-2008, 08:44 PM
Simply speculation on my part. But here's the deal. Kornerko will have two years remaining on a five year deal for ~12M/year. He's having a down year this year (buy low!), but over the last three years, his OPS has been 841, 932 and 929.

The tricky thing is to figure out if his slide this year is injury-related or if his skills are declining (he'll be 33 on opening day next year).

He provides the RH bat the Reds need without costing the Reds as much as a Holiday or Texiera would. His defense is probably not much worse than Votto's and it allows Votto to concentrate on becoming a league-average LF'er. His contract expires in two years, allowing time for Alonso or some other prospect to emerge. I don't know what the Sox may want in return, but I can't imagine it would break the Red's prospect bank.

Thoughts?



YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG RAR RAP OPS+ RC/27
2008 Paul Konerko 32 409 .258 .342 .378 11.4 -10.6 89 4.2
2007 Paul Konerko 31 636 .276 .351 .490 30.6 -1.8 116 5.6

YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG RAR RAP OPS+ RC/27
2008 Joey Votto 24 453 .277 .353 .460 22 -2.1 109 6.0

$12,000,000 per year to get pretty comprable production as you are currently getting from the 8 years younger and league minimum Votto?

Pass.

jojo
08-25-2008, 08:57 PM
YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG RAR RAP OPS+ RC/27
2008 Paul Konerko 32 409 .258 .342 .378 11.4 -10.6 89 4.2
2007 Paul Konerko 31 636 .276 .351 .490 30.6 -1.8 116 5.6

YEAR NAME AGE PA EqA OBP SLG RAR RAP OPS+ RC/27
2008 Joey Votto 24 453 .277 .353 .460 22 -2.1 109 6.0

$12,000,000 per year to get pretty comprable production as you are currently getting from the 8 years younger and league minimum Votto?

Pass.

Even though Konerko is proven and Votto isn't?

GoReds
08-25-2008, 09:01 PM
I'm not advocating that the Reds get rid of Votto, just that they add Kornerko if they are inclined to move Votto to LF. It's going to be hard to find a productive LF'er in the offseason without breaking the bank. This deal wouldn't break the bank (just dent it a bit), is a short-term fix and *shouldn't* cost the Reds top-tier talent.

GAC
08-25-2008, 09:02 PM
pass

OnBaseMachine
08-25-2008, 09:04 PM
No thanks. It's not worth the prospects or cash when we already have Votto and Yonder Alonso.

remdog
08-25-2008, 09:11 PM
IMO, it depends a lot upon whether or not you want to make a run for the roses next year. Confident that you've enough pitching and defense? Then as the last piece of the puzzle maybe you do take a shot at Konerko (or some version there of) much like the addition of Greg Vaughn in '99. Can a proven vet rebound?

Moving Votto to left has been discussed so that's not a new idea. It's more about getting some big production from whoever you replace him with at first.

It's certainly a long shot to happen IMO but interesting thinking.

Rem

Will M
08-25-2008, 11:25 PM
IMO - no.

What I want the Reds to do is build a team for 2010 and beyond.
If we need a one year stopgap somewhere that is fine as long as we give up no real talent. An example would be trading an A ball 'prospect' for benjie Molina and taking on his salary. If we have to give up real talent I want youth back.

The 2009 Reds are not going to be playoff bound.

remdog
08-25-2008, 11:39 PM
IMO - no.

What I want the Reds to do is build a team for 2010 and beyond. ....

The 2009 Reds are not going to be playoff bound.

But Bob wants to win now!

And, frankly, I'm getting a bit impatient myself.

Rem

Tom Servo
08-25-2008, 11:41 PM
Let's trade Jeff Shaw for him.

Will M
08-25-2008, 11:48 PM
But Bob wants to win now!

And, frankly, I'm getting a bit impatient myself.

Rem

I know. But how realistic is it for the Reds to go from just awful to the playoffs in one year?

remdog
08-25-2008, 11:55 PM
Braves. 1990-1991. Worst to first. Based on young pitching coming of age.

Do the Reds have a chance at that? I don't know but I like Harange, Cueto and Volquez.

I'm just saying that, if the other parts seem to be aligned, a veteran like Konerko might be the last piece to complete the puzzle.

Rem

Will M
08-26-2008, 12:11 AM
Braves. 1990-1991. Worst to first. Based on young pitching coming of age.

Do the Reds have a chance at that? I don't know but I like Harange, Cueto and Volquez.

I'm just saying that, if the other parts seem to be aligned, a veteran like Konerko might be the last piece to complete the puzzle.

Rem

OK. It can happen but is it realistic? No.

I am not saying don't try to improve the 2009 team. What I am saying is don't give up anything of value for a short term fix.

Raisor
08-26-2008, 02:07 AM
Braves. 1990-1991. Worst to first. Rem

Let's not forget the Twins did the same thing that year, and won the WS while doing it.

jojo
08-26-2008, 08:36 AM
I think the proper way to frame the decision initially isn't what are the chances that the reds could have a historic turnaround next season but rather, what are the chances that Konerko would represent a significant improvement over what the Reds already have.

Then go from there.

I think you only push Votto off of first if you have someone significantly better to replace him there (I think that generally applies to any starter when talking about his natural position and pushing him in the wrong direction on the defensive spectrum).

Konerko is a worse defender who looks to be in the decline phase of his offensive game.

The Reds should plan on targeting a left fielder unless they get Tex.

Heath
08-26-2008, 12:28 PM
Let's trade Jeff Shaw for him.

Nah. Mike Cameron's a better option.

I'll pass on Konerko.

KronoRed
08-26-2008, 02:11 PM
Lets get both Konerko and Cameron, then lets go find Alex Ochoa and Jeffery Hammonds.

Spring~Fields
08-26-2008, 02:52 PM
Lets get both Konerko and Cameron, then lets go find Alex Ochoa and Jeffery Hammonds.

:)

You could just go get some corked bats and roids and start winning. Is Bonds and Sosa still looking for work? :oops:

RedEye
08-26-2008, 03:38 PM
Why don't we re-sign Sean Casey after we trade for Konerko. Then we can decide to keep only Casey. Again.

westofyou
08-26-2008, 04:29 PM
Why waste time with Konerko, let's just use this guy.

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/80/237358656_552671cddf.jpg?v=0

wheels
08-26-2008, 04:39 PM
That catcher with the big nose would be something of an upgrade as well.

Ltlabner
08-26-2008, 07:51 PM
Even though Konerko is proven and Votto isn't?

Sorry, missed this earlier.

Votto's had a nice first season. That isn't a guarentee that he's going to be around forever, but I think it warrents another season. At this point I think he's worth the risk and you have a general baseline of performance.

Korerko is proven, but also older, in/nearing his decline phase and costs $12,000,000 a year. At the very least, he's a much higher risk to decline and not produce relative to his money than Votto is to crash and burn.

jojo
08-26-2008, 10:44 PM
Sorry, missed this earlier.

Votto's had a nice first season. That isn't a guarentee that he's going to be around forever, but I think it warrents another season. At this point I think he's worth the risk and you have a general baseline of performance.

Korerko is proven, but also older, in/nearing his decline phase and costs $12,000,000 a year. At the very least, he's a much higher risk to decline and not produce relative to his money than Votto is to crash and burn.

I agree with you-I was just being snarky.