PDA

View Full Version : Wednesday August 27th minor league updates



OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 02:27 PM
Louisville - 7:05 - Bobby Livingston

Chattanooga plays a doubleheader with game one getting underway at 5:30. Camilo Vazquez starts game one with Pedro Viola starting game two.

Sarasota - 7:00 - Dallas Buck makes his third start since being acquired in the Dunn trade.

Dayton - 7:05 - Jeremy Horst...Dayton's magic number in down to three games.

Billings - 9:05 - Oscar Castro

The GCL Reds played at 10:00...no boxscore yet. This is the last game of the GCL season.

lollipopcurve
08-27-2008, 02:47 PM
4 lefty starters today

any chance one of them will help the Reds one day? If I had to bet on any of them, it'd be Horst.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 02:51 PM
4 lefty starters today

any chance one of them will help the Reds one day? If I had to bet on any of them, it'd be Horst.

I like Horst the best as a starter but keep an eye on Pedro Viola as a lefty out of the pen. He's struggled this year but his stuff is very good.

dougdirt
08-27-2008, 02:52 PM
They all look like bullpen guys, so I still like Viola the best.

HokieRed
08-27-2008, 03:47 PM
Be good to see Bobby L. have a better outing this time. I've no idea how bad that arm injury was, but it seems to me he's had a pretty good rehab, making progress a lot quicker than I thought he would. I'd love to see him pitch well the rest of the way for L'ville and take up some of the load in Cinti in September. For anybody out there who's seen Maloney and Livingston, how would you compare their command? I saw Livingston pitch a terrific 8.2 last year against S.D. He had command of everything and when he did throw his 89, it looked like about 105.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 05:35 PM
Viola is starting game one. Dorn isn't playing game one.

dougdirt
08-27-2008, 07:36 PM
Dayton is up 3-0. Soto is 1-1 with a 2 run HR and Brandon Waring followed him with a solo HR of his own.

Redman15
08-27-2008, 07:42 PM
Chatt up 2-1 on solo bombs by Valaika and Eymann.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 07:42 PM
Dayton is up 3-0. Soto is 1-1 with a 2 run HR and Brandon Waring followed him with a solo HR of his own.

Goodness. Soto is ridiculously good. 12 game hitting streak for him now.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 07:51 PM
Louisville is winning 5-0 in the 4th inning.

Richar: 1-for-2 two SB
Stubbs: 0-for-2
Barker: 1-for-2 solo HR (#18)
Colina: 2-for-2 double
Bolivar: 1-for-1 homerun (#6), 3 RBI

Livingston: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 07:53 PM
Chattanooga is winning game one 2-1 after 1 1/2 innings.

Henry: 1-for-1
Heisey: 0-for-1
Turner: 0-for-1
Valaika: 1-for-1 homerun (#18)
Eymann: 1-for-1 homerun (#7)

Viola: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 07:55 PM
Sarasota is winning 1-0 after three innings.

Castro: 1-for-2 double
Kainer: 1-for-2 homerun (#1)
Alonso: 0-for-2
Frazier: 0-for-1
Francisco: 0-for-1
Parker: 0-for-1

Buck: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 5 GO/2 FO

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 07:57 PM
Dayton is winning 3-0 after three innings.

Cozart: 1-for-2
Soto: 1-for-2 homerun (#10), 2 RBI
Waring: 1-for-1 homerun (#19), walk
Phipps: 1-for-2
Mesoraco: 0-for-2

Horst: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 07:59 PM
Rob Mackowiak and Luis Boliver hit back-to-back solo homeruns in the 4th to extend Louisville's lead to 6-0.

Bolivar is 2-for-2 with two homeruns and 4 RBI.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:04 PM
Buck: 4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 7 GO/2 FO

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:13 PM
Buck: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 10 GO/2 FO

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:20 PM
Soto gets HBP and then Waring follows with his second homerun of the game and 20th of the year.

5-0 Dayton.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:28 PM
Horst: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K

Redman15
08-27-2008, 08:29 PM
Chatt is in a rain delay. They trail 3-2.

Redman15
08-27-2008, 08:36 PM
Richar is having a good night(3-4) for the Bats along with Bolivar(2 HR's)
Bats lead 7-2 in the B6.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:39 PM
Carson Kainer entered tonight with 0 homeruns in 344 atbats. He's got two tonight in three atbats.

Bolivar, Kainer, and Waring have all hit two homeruns in a game tonight.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:46 PM
Horst's final line: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K

5-0 Dayton after 6 1/2.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:53 PM
Dallas Buck was throwing a gem before getting roughed up in the 6th. He faced three batters and all got on and come around to score.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 08:57 PM
Juan Francisco just hit his 23rd homerun of the season.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 09:05 PM
5-2 Dayton after 7 1/2.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 09:17 PM
The GCL Reds won their season finale 3-2.

Bowe: 3-for-5 two doubles, triple
Pimentel: 1-for-5 double
Coddington: 0-for-4 walk
Conner: 1-for-4 walk
Pfister: 2-for-5 double
Gregorius: 0-for-3 walk

Gil: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Panerati: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

Pizziconi: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K

The GCL Reds finished 26-31.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 09:25 PM
Dayton's lead has been cut to 5-4 after eight innings.

BigRed07
08-27-2008, 09:26 PM
Heisey and Francisco FSL all-stars.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 09:33 PM
Dayton won 5-4.

Cozart: 1-for-4
Soto: 1-for-3 homerun (#10), HBP, 2 RBI
Waring: 2-for-3 two homeruns (#19,20), walk, 3 RBI
Phipps: 1-for-4
Mesoraco: 1-for-4

Horst: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K

Jeffords: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K for the save.

Dayton's magic number has been cut to two games.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 09:36 PM
Louisville won 7-5.

Richar: 3-for-5 double, two SB (14)
Stubbs: 0-for-5
Anderson: 1-for-3 walk
Barker: 1-for-3 solo HR (#18), walk
Colina: 2-for-4 double
Bolivar: 2-for-4 two homeruns (#6,7), 4 RBI

Livingston: 6.2 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 2 BB, 2 K

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 10:08 PM
Sarasota lost 8-3.

Castro: 1-for-5 double
Kainer: 2-for-4 two homeruns (#1,2)
Alonso: 0-for-4
Frazier: 0-for-3 HBP
Francisco: 1-for-4 solo homerun (#23)
Parker: 0-for-4

Buck: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 10 GO/2 FO

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 10:09 PM
Chattanooga is still in a rain delay in the second inning of game one.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 10:18 PM
Billings is winning 6-4 after 2 1/2.

Stiffler: 1-for-2
Buchholz: 1-for-2
Puckett: 0-for-1 walk
Konstanty: 1-for-2
Brown: 1-for-2
Sappelt: 1-for-1 double
Rojas: 1-for-1 triple, 2 RBI

BigRed07
08-27-2008, 10:34 PM
Chatt will get under way at 10:55 pm.

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 10:50 PM
Chatt will get under way at 10:55 pm.

Are they still planning on playing both games?

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 10:53 PM
Billings is winning 14-4 after five innings.

Stiffler: 1-for-3 walk, 2 RBI
Buchholz: 2-for-3 double, walk
Puckett: 0-for-2 two walks
Konstanty: 1-for-2 walk
Brown: 1-for-3
Sappelt: 2-for-2 two doubles, 3 RBI
Rojas: 2-for-3 triple, 3 RBI

BigRed07
08-27-2008, 10:59 PM
No, they are just going to try and finish the 1st one. They are headed to the T3.
Looks trail 3-2.

BigRed07
08-27-2008, 11:03 PM
Heisey homers to tie it 3-3.

mace
08-27-2008, 11:25 PM
Pardon if this is a frequent occurrence, but Juan Francisco played left field tonight.

I suppose it's a nice problem to have, but the Reds have a glut of good third basemen in their system: Francisco, Soto and Waring, for starters, with the reasonable possibility that Frazier will end up there. Then there's Edwin. Which of that group would you venture will be playing the position in Cincinnati in three years? And what positions do you suppose the others will be playing if they're still in the organization?

OnBaseMachine
08-27-2008, 11:45 PM
Billings won 14-4.

Stiffler: 1-for-5 walk, 2 RBI
Buchholz: 2-for-4 double, walk
Puckett: 0-for-3 two walks
Konstanty: 1-for-3 walk
Brown: 2-for-4
Sappelt: 2-for-3 two doubles, walk, 3 RBI
Rojas: 2-for-4 triple, walk, 3 RBI

Castro: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Santana: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K

Beal: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

BigRed07
08-28-2008, 12:33 AM
Looks tied 4-4 T7.

BigRed07
08-28-2008, 12:52 AM
Valentine escapes a bases loaded jam in the B7. 4-4 headed to the 8th.

timmy9985
08-28-2008, 01:00 AM
Soto would be my pick for 3B of the future. He can flat out hit and will only get better when he gains some weight

BigRed07
08-28-2008, 01:06 AM
Heisey doubles in the go ahead run. Looks lead 5-4 B8. Watson in to close it out.

BigRed07
08-28-2008, 01:17 AM
Lookouts win 5-4 and knock Tennessee out of the playoffs.

dougdirt
08-28-2008, 01:42 AM
Nice job by the Lookouts. Heisey had a heck of a game.

OnBaseMachine
08-28-2008, 01:57 AM
Chattanooga won 5-4.

Henry: 1-for-5
Heisey: 3-for-4 double, homerun (#8), walk, 2 RBI
Valaika: 1-for-4 homerun (#18)
Eymann: 1-for-2 homerun (#7), two walks
Gutierrez: 1-for-2 SB

Geronimo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

Watson: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

lollipopcurve
08-28-2008, 08:38 AM
Nice job by the Lookouts. Heisey had a heck of a game.

As I've been saying, this kid can play.

medford
08-28-2008, 09:21 AM
My guess would be either Soto or Frasier at 3b in 3 seasons (assuming the third baseman comes from w/n the organization).

I know a lot of people love Edwin, but the more I watch him, the more and more I see Wily Mo Pena. Both have a world of talent, but both have a lot of stupid at bats (ie swinging at a first pitch out of the zone when the pitcher just walked the batter ahead of them on 5 pitches). Many thought Wily would shine once he was given a chance to play every day, but he's never developed into much other than a batting practice phenom.

Edwin is more polished both at the plate and in the field, but he still leaves a lot to be desired. I don't know if Frazier or Soto would be any better in the majors in 3 seasons, but at least is something different from the annoyance that Edwin has been to me the last couple of seasons.

Waring & Francisco both can hit the long ball, but both struggle to make contact. I haven't followed Waring as much this season, but I know Francisco still struggle with that. If they can improve their plate discipline, they'd have a chance to shine in the majors, short of that, I think both will be nice pop off the bench and provide backups at 3B, 1B & LF.

In the end, 2-3 or more of them (including Edwin) will be shipped off in a trade in the next 3 seasons. W/ the glut of them in the system, I suspect Walt will use one of them as trade bait this offseason along w/ other established players or prospect to bring in something to help the big club out.

Redman15
08-28-2008, 10:28 AM
As I've been saying, this kid can play.
Heisey was a triple away from the cycle and made several outstanding plays
in the outfield. He was selected to the FSL post season All-Star team with
Juan Francisco.

mace
08-28-2008, 10:53 AM
My guess would be either Soto or Frasier at 3b in 3 seasons (assuming the third baseman comes from w/n the organization).

I know a lot of people love Edwin, but the more I watch him, the more and more I see Wily Mo Pena. Both have a world of talent, but both have a lot of stupid at bats (ie swinging at a first pitch out of the zone when the pitcher just walked the batter ahead of them on 5 pitches). Many thought Wily would shine once he was given a chance to play every day, but he's never developed into much other than a batting practice phenom.

Edwin is more polished both at the plate and in the field, but he still leaves a lot to be desired. I don't know if Frazier or Soto would be any better in the majors in 3 seasons, but at least is something different from the annoyance that Edwin has been to me the last couple of seasons.

Waring & Francisco both can hit the long ball, but both struggle to make contact. I haven't followed Waring as much this season, but I know Francisco still struggle with that. If they can improve their plate discipline, they'd have a chance to shine in the majors, short of that, I think both will be nice pop off the bench and provide backups at 3B, 1B & LF.

In the end, 2-3 or more of them (including Edwin) will be shipped off in a trade in the next 3 seasons. W/ the glut of them in the system, I suspect Walt will use one of them as trade bait this offseason along w/ other established players or prospect to bring in something to help the big club out.

I agree on Soto to the extent that I think he's the best overall prospect in the bunch. And by all accounts, Frazier is a major-leaguer-in-waiting. But I'm much more optimistic concerning Francisco. In addition to his power, I like the fact that he produces lots of RBIs and total bases. Of course he could use considerably more walks, but as a 4-5 batter I'll take the hits. Plus, he's a switch-hitter. Plus, he's really young. Plus, he was rated the top defensive 3B in the Florida St League. Apparently he has a killer arm. My question regarding him is what his future position is to be. The same with Soto, Frazier and even Waring. Even Edwin. To me, it's an exercise in sorting out the positions.

dougdirt
08-28-2008, 11:51 AM
Francisco is not a switch hitter. He used to be, thus still gets listed as such, but he is not switch hitting anymore.

mace
08-28-2008, 12:00 PM
Thanks. Which way does he go?

OnBaseMachine
08-28-2008, 12:09 PM
Thanks. Which way does he go?

Lefty.

medford
08-28-2008, 12:48 PM
I agree on Francisco, I wouldn't move him just to move him, or to open up a spot for someone else (even soto), I'm just not sure that I'm sold on his future. Granted my personal experience is seeing Francisco once, Frasier once, Soto once, and I think Waring was hurt my only opportunity.

Francisco's got power that you can't teach, and generally produces a solid stat line, I'm just not sure if his lack of walks will catch up with him. Still w/ everything else, I'd definently be looking at him as somebody that could be an answer to the Reds future puzzle.

But at the same time, if he was the deal breaker to bring in a significant addition to the major league squad, I'd move him along, thinking one of the other 3 minor leaguers could make up for Francisco in due time.

nemesis
08-28-2008, 01:19 PM
Is there any chance that the Reds jump Soto over Sarasota to Chattanooga? That could be a mean lean line up at Nooga...

1B - Parker / Alonso
2B - Turner
3B - Soto
SS - Frazier
LF - Francisco
CF - Heisley
RF - Symanaski
C- ????

Soto can flat rake... I don't know that he couldn't handle AA pitching right now... Him and Fransisco could give us a nice left, right punch to the line up by 2010. Soto would have alot more line up protection than he would have in Sarasota

Heisley
Turner
Alonso
Soto
Francisco
Frazier
Symanaski
Catcher

Man that could be a very good offensive team... kinda like what Huntville had this year.

That also would allow Valakia, Dorn, Henry and Guitierez to be pushed to Louisville...

lollipopcurve
08-28-2008, 01:40 PM
That also would allow Valakia, Dorn, Henry and Guitierez to be pushed to Louisville...

Turner will be there too.

Redman15
08-28-2008, 03:16 PM
Is there any chance that the Reds jump Soto over Sarasota to Chattanooga? That could be a mean lean line up at Nooga...

1B - Parker / Alonso
2B - Turner
3B - Soto
SS - Frazier
LF - Francisco
CF - Heisley
RF - Symanaski
C- ????

Soto can flat rake... I don't know that he couldn't handle AA pitching right now... Him and Fransisco could give us a nice left, right punch to the line up by 2010. Soto would have alot more line up protection than he would have in Sarasota

Heisley
Turner
Alonso
Soto
Francisco
Frazier
Symanaski
Catcher

Man that could be a very good offensive team... kinda like what Huntville had this year.

That also would allow Valakia, Dorn, Henry and Guitierez to be pushed to Louisville...

I will be in Chattanooga this weekend to see the Looks close out the year
with Huntsville. The Stars had all that offense and still did not make the playoffs. Hopefully there will be no season ending brawls.:thumbup:

nemesis
08-28-2008, 03:29 PM
Turner will be there too.

I'm not so sure. He might be blocked if neither Janish or Richar make the big club. I dont see him as a bench player. He might get a promotion latter in the year...

camisadelgolf
08-29-2008, 12:42 AM
I'd say there's no chance that Soto skips high-A. As impressive as he's been, he is still very raw. His defense needs work, and it would help him quite a bit to learn some plate discipline. He's also very young, so I think the Reds are comfortable with taking their time with him.

Kc61
08-29-2008, 12:58 AM
Francisco's got power that you can't teach, and generally produces a solid stat line, I'm just not sure if his lack of walks will catch up with him. Still w/ everything else, I'd definently be looking at him as somebody that could be an answer to the Reds future puzzle.

But at the same time, if he was the deal breaker to bring in a significant addition to the major league squad, I'd move him along, thinking one of the other 3 minor leaguers could make up for Francisco in due time.

Francisco is so underrated by some posters that I feel compelled to post about him. Yes, I know he has a .303 OBP and that he doesn't walk much. As a 21 year old in High A ball, hopefully this will get better.

But it is simply not true that he struggles to make contact. Quite the opposite. He has fanned 123 times in well over 500 at bats. That means he strikes out fewer than 1 time per 4 at bats. For a power hitter, that's a very acceptable ratio.

And is he a power hitter. This year, Francisco has a .496 slugging percentage. He has 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers and 92 RBIs. For you batting average fans, he's hit .277. And he gets praise in the publications for his defensive ability. His range factor this year (calculated by games played) is 2.41, much better than the NL average of 2.27. (He's made 17 errors, still too many.) He has a cannon for an arm and great defensive potential.

Even if you are an OBP fan, there would seem potentially to be room in a major league lineup for a promising defensive third sacker with 34 doubles, 23 homers, and 92 RBIs -- all accomplished at a fairly high level after he recently turned 21.

And, of course, on top of all this, Francisco accomplished these numbers in the pitching dominated FSL.

Third baseman of the future? Not sure but he's leading the competition if you ask me. If he's traded, the Reds will be playing against him as a major league starter some day.

camisadelgolf
08-29-2008, 01:12 AM
You can put me in the group that has underrated Francisco. I'm a lot more sold on him now than I was last year. There is no doubt that he has improved, even if there isn't a drastic difference in the numbers. He still has a long way to go when it comes to waiting for pitches, but his skills will certainly help him compensate these next few years.

crazyredfan40
08-29-2008, 05:40 AM
Francisco is so underrated by some posters that I feel compelled to post about him. Yes, I know he has a .303 OBP and that he doesn't walk much. As a 21 year old in High A ball, hopefully this will get better.

But it is simply not true that he struggles to make contact. Quite the opposite. He has fanned 123 times in well over 500 at bats. That means he strikes out fewer than 1 time per 4 at bats. For a power hitter, that's a very acceptable ratio.

And is he a power hitter. This year, Francisco has a .496 slugging percentage. He has 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers and 92 RBIs. For you batting average fans, he's hit .277. And he gets praise in the publications for his defensive ability. His range factor this year (calculated by games played) is 2.41, much better than the NL average of 2.27. (He's made 17 errors, still too many.) He has a cannon for an arm and great defensive potential.

Even if you are an OBP fan, there would seem potentially to be room in a major league lineup for a promising defensive third sacker with 34 doubles, 23 homers, and 92 RBIs -- all accomplished at a fairly high level after he recently turned 21.

And, of course, on top of all this, Francisco accomplished these numbers in the pitching dominated FSL.

Third baseman of the future? Not sure but he's leading the competition if you ask me. If he's traded, the Reds will be playing against him as a major league starter some day.

Just going off the bolded part, I would hope that everyone is an OBP fan...There is no way around saying that high OBP teams have the best offenses...

As for Francisco there is no reason to overrate him or underrate him due to his potential, but areas of weakness...but he won't be a successful major league player with a .303 OBP...

camisadelgolf
08-29-2008, 05:48 AM
As far as scoring runs goes, the only way to compensate for a low OBP is with a high SLG%, and Francisco has been doing that. The obstacle for him is that very, very few players with his skill set are able to translate it to success against more advanced pitching. If he wants to be anywhere near as good as he can be, he has to learn to take more pitches. But to his credit, even though he's not walking more, he's managed to go to the FSL and decrease his strikeouts while increasing his SLG.

mth123
08-29-2008, 05:56 AM
Francisco is so underrated by some posters that I feel compelled to post about him. Yes, I know he has a .303 OBP and that he doesn't walk much. As a 21 year old in High A ball, hopefully this will get better.

But it is simply not true that he struggles to make contact. Quite the opposite. He has fanned 123 times in well over 500 at bats. That means he strikes out fewer than 1 time per 4 at bats. For a power hitter, that's a very acceptable ratio.

And is he a power hitter. This year, Francisco has a .496 slugging percentage. He has 34 doubles, 5 triples, 23 homers and 92 RBIs. For you batting average fans, he's hit .277. And he gets praise in the publications for his defensive ability. His range factor this year (calculated by games played) is 2.41, much better than the NL average of 2.27. (He's made 17 errors, still too many.) He has a cannon for an arm and great defensive potential.

Even if you are an OBP fan, there would seem potentially to be room in a major league lineup for a promising defensive third sacker with 34 doubles, 23 homers, and 92 RBIs -- all accomplished at a fairly high level after he recently turned 21.

And, of course, on top of all this, Francisco accomplished these numbers in the pitching dominated FSL.

Third baseman of the future? Not sure but he's leading the competition if you ask me. If he's traded, the Reds will be playing against him as a major league starter some day.


The Reds are pretty crowded at 3B. Many of the team's best offensive prospects are probably 3B in the long run, with EdE, Keppinger and Rosales on the big league roster, and Frazier, Soto, Francisco, Waring and probably Valaika are 3B in the system and there isn't room for all these guys. Moving any to 1B probably isn't an option with Votto and Alonso already on board and the OF with Bruce, Dickerson, Stubbs, Dorn, Henry, Cumberland and Heisey is pretty crowded as well. Moving a couple of these guys in a deal in order to shore up thin areas in the organization has to be in the plan. IMO Frazier and Soto look like better all around bats than FRancisco and Valaika looks like a tweener. Waring probably has less value so Francisco and Valaika are guys I'd shop for a SS prospect who can actually play the spot in the big leagues and doesn't project as an automatic out. Finding a guy like that who is blocked at the big league level and likely available isn't obvious right now though.

mth123
08-29-2008, 06:19 AM
As for Francisco there is no reason to overrate him or underrate him due to his potential, but areas of weakness...but he won't be a successful major league player with a .303 OBP...

I don't know about that. He could probably be a decent bottom of the order bat with some pop as long as his defense at 3B is good. I see Pedro Feliz as a likely comp for Francisco. Not a star, but a starting caliber major league player who has some strengths and some weaknesses who can be useful if penciled in the line-up with your eyes open as to what he is. I'd even go so far to say his young cheap years are probably going to fairly valuable.

mace
08-29-2008, 09:57 AM
As for Francisco there is no reason to overrate him or underrate him due to his potential, but areas of weakness...but he won't be a successful major league player with a .303 OBP...

This is where I deviate from the strict OBP crowd. Maybe some stathead can run more specific numbers, but here's how I see it. Put two guys in the No. 5 hole. Both of them bat .300 over 500 plate appearances. One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.) The other has a .400 OBP, which means he has 129 hits and 71 walks. Obviously, most people would overwhelmingly prefer the 400 OB guy. His advantage is 71 walks, which would drive in virtually NO runs but enable the 6-7-8 hitters to occasionally drive HIM in. Meanwhile, the 300 OB guy will score fewer runs (I'm assuming the same slugging percentage, which means, however, that he'll recoup some of the runs by homering or reaching scoring position) and deliver an extra 21 hits with which he WILL drive in some runs. I'm not sure where the advantage falls -- that would take some much more complicated math -- but the difference is nowhere near what many people presume it to be, and in fact the 300 OB guy may turn out to be every bit as productive in the 5-hole. There would be no comparison in, say, the 2-hole; but that's not what we're talking about. Batting fifth, the 300 OBP guy would drive in more runs than the 400 OBP guy. And isn't that what a No. 5 hitter is supposed to do? In short, I wouldn't write off a power hitter like Francisco merely because he has a poor OBP. There are, in fact, some advantages to that as long as he maintains a high batting average and slugging percentage.

camisadelgolf
08-29-2008, 10:20 AM
Batting average, alone, says very little, but that doesn't mean it isn't useful. Many people make the mistake of saying that a single is equal to a walk, but obviously, a single is much more valuable if you have a runner on base. That's why I like to add batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage together when I compare players.

nate
08-29-2008, 10:25 AM
This is where I deviate from the strict OBP crowd. Maybe some stathead can run more specific numbers, but here's how I see it. Put two guys in the No. 5 hole. Both of them bat .300 over 500 plate appearances. One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.) The other has a .400 OBP, which means he has 129 hits and 71 walks. Obviously, most people would overwhelmingly prefer the 400 OB guy. His advantage is 71 walks, which would drive in virtually NO runs but enable the 6-7-8 hitters to occasionally drive HIM in. Meanwhile, the 300 OB guy will score fewer runs (I'm assuming the same slugging percentage, which means, however, that he'll recoup some of the runs by homering or reaching scoring position) and deliver an extra 21 hits with which he WILL drive in some runs. I'm not sure where the advantage falls -- that would take some much more complicated math -- but the difference is nowhere near what many people presume it to be, and in fact the 300 OB guy may turn out to be every bit as productive in the 5-hole. There would be no comparison in, say, the 2-hole; but that's not what we're talking about. Batting fifth, the 300 OBP guy would drive in more runs than the 400 OBP guy. And isn't that what a No. 5 hitter is supposed to do? In short, I wouldn't write off a power hitter like Francisco merely because he has a poor OBP. There are, in fact, some advantages to that as long as he maintains a high batting average and slugging percentage.

It's a fair point and a good post. Just two things occur to me:

1. How many runs they drive in depends on who bats ahead of them.

2. The "empty" .300 hitter (.000 IsoD) makes 50 more outs than the .400 OBP dude.

PuffyPig
08-29-2008, 10:32 AM
. The "empty" .300 hitter (.000 IsoD) makes 50 more outs than the .400 OBP dude.

That assumes that .300 hitter never walks. Even if he walks 40 times per season, his OBA would be .352, which would decrease those 50 outs to 24 outs.

nate
08-29-2008, 10:53 AM
That assumes that .300 hitter never walks. Even if he walks 40 times per season, his OBA would be .352, which would decrease those 50 outs to 24 outs.

That was the scenario mace put forth:


One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.)

mace
08-29-2008, 11:08 AM
It's a fair point and a good post. Just two things occur to me:

1. How many runs they drive in depends on who bats ahead of them.

2. The "empty" .300 hitter (.000 IsoD) makes 50 more outs than the .400 OBP dude.

Yes, the .300 OBP guy makes 50 additional outs. I was thinking that's already accounted for in the extra opportunities he gives for the 6-7-8 batters, but you're right, it's a two-way advantage: One, the extra opportunity by saving the out, and two, the extra man on base. Good point.

Also yes that the relative RBIs depend on who bats ahead of them. Similarly, the relative runs scored depend on who bats behind them. That's why I believe there are too many variables to arrive at a hard-and-fast conclusion. The point is made in the most general terms.

nate
08-29-2008, 11:14 AM
Yes, the .300 OBP guy makes 50 additional outs. I was thinking that's already accounted for in the extra opportunities he gives for the 6-7-8 batters, but you're right, it's a two-way advantage: One, the extra opportunity by saving the out, and two, the extra man on base. Good point.

Also yes that the relative RBIs depend on who bats ahead of them. Similarly, the relative runs scored depend on who bats behind them. That's why I believe there are too many variables to arrive at a hard-and-fast conclusion. The point is made in the most general terms.

Yes. Just based on your scenario, I'd pick the higher OBP guy, simply because, and this is just my impression, plate discipline or IsoD doesn't slump as much as batting average. IOW, a guy with a higher IsoD will still get on base even while in the throes of an 0-fer.

But all things considered, I'd love to have both and bat the .400 OBP in front of the .300 BA guy.

mace
08-29-2008, 11:17 AM
The extra opportunity, however, is not all that it seems to be -- especially late in an inning with men on base. If you're talking about an RBI situation, it's really just a case of transferring the opportunity from the No. 5 hitter to the No. 6 or 7 guy. Ideally, that's a bad tradeoff. The 5 guy is the one you're trusting to drive in the run. In effect, the question is: Do you want those 50 opportunities to go to the 5 batter or the batters behind him? Again, if it's a leadoff situation this argument doesn't apply. That's why I specifically made it for the 5-hole hitter. The further you get from 5, the less merit it has.

nate
08-29-2008, 11:25 AM
The extra opportunity, however, is not all that it seems to be -- especially late in an inning with men on base. If you're talking about an RBI situation, it's really just a case of transferring the opportunity from the No. 5 hitter to the No. 6 or 7 guy. Ideally, that's a bad tradeoff. The 5 guy is the one you're trusting to drive in the run. In effect, the question is: Do you want those 50 opportunities to go to the 5 batter or the batters behind him? Again, if it's a leadoff situation this argument doesn't apply. That's why I specifically made it for the 5-hole hitter. The further you get from 5, the less merit it has.

Personally, I want the 50 opportunities to go to someone. One guy will get a hit 3/10ths of the time and get out the rest. The other guy will get a hit 3/10ths of the time, walk 1/10th of the time and get out the rest. Yeah, I'd rather my guy come through but, as you said in your scenario, both guys are .300 hitters so they're have the same chance at hitting the ball. The advantage is with the high OBP guy, even if he fails to get a hit, there's a chance he'll extended the inning rather than shorten or end it.

mace
08-29-2008, 11:31 AM
Yes. Just based on your scenario, I'd pick the higher OBP guy, simply because, and this is just my impression, plate discipline or IsoD doesn't slump as much as batting average. IOW, a guy with a higher IsoD will still get on base even while in the throes of an 0-fer.

But all things considered, I'd love to have both and bat the .400 OBP in front of the .300 BA guy.

I might pick him, too, in the sense that he is more versatile in terms of the batting order. I don't know that I buy into the slump immunity because the totals are still the totals.

I do think, however, that there are specific situations when the .300 OBP guy could be equally or even more valuable to a particular team, depending on its makeup. And mostly -- this is my main point -- I think that it's quite wrong to totally dismiss a power-hitting run producer on the basis of a low OBP.

mace
08-29-2008, 11:38 AM
Personally, I want the 50 opportunities to go to someone. One guy will get a hit 3/10ths of the time and get out the rest. The other guy will get a hit 3/10ths of the time, walk 1/10th of the time and get out the rest. Yeah, I'd rather my guy come through but, as you said in your scenario, both guys are .300 hitters so they're have the same chance at hitting the ball. The advantage is with the high OBP guy, even if he fails to get a hit, there's a chance he'll extended the inning rather than shorten or end it.

Actually, they don't get hits at the same rate. Not in terms of plate appearances. The .300 OBP guy gets hits at a .300 clip. The .400 OBP guy gets hits at a .258 clip and walks at a .142 clip. So they don't have the same chance at hitting the ball. That's an essential point in this discussion.

mace
08-29-2008, 11:44 AM
Bottom line, the .300 OBP guy will drive in more runs and the .400 OBP guy will score more. Their relative value depends on what the lineup most requires.

nate
08-29-2008, 11:45 AM
Actually, they don't get hits at the same rate. Not in terms of plate appearances. The .300 OBP guy gets hits at a .300 clip. The .400 OBP guy gets hits at a .258 clip and walks at a .142 clip. So they don't have the same chance at hitting the ball. That's an essential point in this discussion.

That's changing your original scenario:


Both of them bat .300 over 500 plate appearances. One has a .300 OBP, which means he never walks and has 150 hits. (I'm making extreme cases to demonstrate the point.) The other has a .400 OBP, which means he has 129 hits and 71 walks.

mace
08-29-2008, 11:52 AM
I'm not changing it. Both are them DO bat .300 in 500 plate appearances. But for a guy with a .400 OBP to do that, it means that 71 of his PAs are walks. So he has only 429 at-bats. To hit .300 over those 429 at bats, he must get 129 hits. Now, if you spread those 129 hits over 500 PAs, his rate of getting hits (not his batting average) is .258.

By the way, I think we pretty much agree on all of this.

nate
08-29-2008, 11:55 AM
I'm not changing it. Both are them DO bat .300 in 500 plate appearances. But for a guy with a .400 OBP to do that, it means that 71 of his PAs are walks. So he has only 429 at-bats. To hit .300 over those 429 at bats, he must get 129 hits. Now, if you spread those 129 hits over 500 PAs, his rate of getting hits (not his batting average) is .258.

By the way, I think we pretty much agree on all of this.

Good point, yes!