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ChatterRed
08-30-2008, 12:48 AM
Okay, so he went 3-5 tonight.

But that has nothing to do with this post. Just coincidence.

You can be a 5-tool player, but if you can't hit, it doesn't matter what you're other physical tools are. Dickerson has a quick bat. That homer he hit tonight was all bat speed. I was impressed.

My opinion is that if he continues to be selective at the plate, he will stick. He can hit and do things others cannot do. He got moved from CF to LF late in the game, and someone hit one down the line. He got to it so fast, he held the hitter to a single. Dunn would have never done that. I was impressed again.

I think we found our future CFer. I hope his plate selectivity continues. He has alot of potential. :thumbup:

Grande Donkey
08-30-2008, 01:33 AM
Okay, so he went 3-5 tonight.

But that has nothing to do with this post. Just coincidence.

You can be a 5-tool player, but if you can't hit, it doesn't matter what you're other physical tools are. Dickerson has a quick bat. That homer he hit tonight was all bat speed. I was impressed.

My opinion is that if he continues to be selective at the plate, he will stick. He can hit and do things others cannot do. He got moved from CF to LF late in the game, and someone hit one down the line. He got to it so fast, he held the hitter to a single. Dunn would have never done that. I was impressed again.

I think we found our future CFer. I hope his plate selectivity continues. He has alot of potential. :thumbup:Actually, if you can't hit then you can't be a 5 tool player.

757690
08-30-2008, 01:38 AM
I agree. The rap against him in the minors was that his bat was too slow for the majors. I have no idea where that came from.

I agree his main problem, like all young hitters, is pitch recognition, which has lead to too many K's. But I would have no problem with the Reds going into next year with Dickerson in CF. Before he came up, many thought that even if he hit just .250 with 15 HR's, he would be worth it because of his defense. It looks like he should be able to do better than that next year.

OUReds
08-30-2008, 01:46 AM
The Reds have so many other holes to try and fill in the lineup next year that I don't think they'll have any choice other then to play him.

I'm still skeptical, but between Dickerson and Stubbs, the situation could be worse.

Fullboat
08-30-2008, 01:48 AM
It's a shame this kid was kept in AAA because we had a better player AKA Patterson.:rolleyes:

gedred69
08-30-2008, 03:08 PM
There were so many question marks with him, that he appeared to be maybe a 4th/5th OF. But so far, uhhhh, could the Reds maybe have stumbled over a bona-fide MLB CF that can lead off? Dunno yet, time will tell if he is the real deal or just a younger "Freelesque" super-sub.

HeatherC1212
08-31-2008, 01:10 AM
I've seen Dickerson play in person twice now and I really like this guy (I have watched him on TV a bit too). He plays well in the outfield (he was in CF for my first game and was in LF tonight) and he has a lot of poise and composure at the plate too. I'd like to see what he can do with a full season here so I hope they bring him back next season. This guy is also extremely fast! He hit a triple to lead off the game tonight and he was FLYING around the bases. I half wondered if he could have made that an inside the park HR if our right field line was even just five or ten feet bigger. Wow! :eek:

scounts22
08-31-2008, 03:31 AM
There was a group of guys in left field that cheered him on the entire game and he was smiling from ear to ear. At the end of the game, AFTER the team had gone through the line and congratulated each other, he trotted back out to left field with a ball in hand and tossed it up to the group. It was a really cool exchange between he and the group. You could tell he really appreciated the support and enthusiasm they provided!

walk-off
08-31-2008, 05:49 PM
I like him a lot so far, but AAAA players usually have a little more success this time of year. I hope Dickerson continues to impress enough to justify the job for 2009. Not sure why he is in left if he has a chance to be the future in cf. Is this just a chance for Patterson to get above .200 ??? Maybe they found out somebody was going to rename the Mendoza line after Corey Patterson or something...

aerontg
08-31-2008, 06:16 PM
I like him a lot so far, but AAAA players usually have a little more success this time of year. I hope Dickerson continues to impress enough to justify the job for 2009. Not sure why he is in left if he has a chance to be the future in cf. Is this just a chance for Patterson to get above .200 ??? Maybe they found out somebody was going to rename the Mendoza line after Corey Patterson or something...

So your logic in saying that he's a AAAA player is that he just came up from the minors and is having some success at this time of the year? It sure sounds like that's what you are saying. The only thing that Dunn has on this guy is power. Dickerson is better than Dunn and Patterson (no surprise there). And, is there some kind of popularity contest going on as to who can come up with the best cliches when trashing a guy? :rolleyes:

walk-off
09-01-2008, 11:29 AM
So your logic in saying that he's a AAAA player is that he just came up from the minors and is having some success at this time of the year? It sure sounds like that's what you are saying. The only thing that Dunn has on this guy is power. Dickerson is better than Dunn and Patterson (no surprise there). And, is there some kind of popularity contest going on as to who can come up with the best cliches when trashing a guy? :rolleyes:

Trashing??? Perhaps you need to go back to school and address your inablity to comprehend what you read. I said "I hope Dickerson continues to impress enough to justify the job for 2009." How is that trashing??? I also did not call him a AAAA player nor did I ever mention Dunn.

My point is AAAA players do tend to hit better this time of year. Remember a guy named Brandon Larson??? Giving Dickerson an extended chance well in to next season could help rule out that possibility. The only guy I trashed was Patterson because he is wasting cf. Dickerson should be dropped in cf only and not touched for atleast 1 calander year.

DTCromer
09-01-2008, 01:24 PM
I'd wait for a larger sample size before letting this kid start in '09.

Redlegs21
09-01-2008, 05:53 PM
I think Dickerson is going to have a very good Career. I know he hasnt played much, but his speed and defense alone will make up for any problems he might have with his bat. Most teams are looking for a stud defensively in center and can handle a lower hitting CF.

However, I think that Dickerson is going to be an above average hitter. I think he struggled in the minors because of the inconsistent pitching of the pitchers. That can cause you chase a little more and take stuff that wouldnt be a strike in the bigs but is in the minors.

He also changed his approach to the plate a little bit so I think that is paying him huge dividends too. Overall this guy is probably going to be one of those solid guys that came out of nowhere. And you cant teach speed, and he gives us a dimension we havent had for years. I dont care what he does in ST, he should be starting next year.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-01-2008, 07:26 PM
patterson would be a fine 4th outfielder.. this is his worst year in his career!!

Kingspoint
09-01-2008, 07:28 PM
He's hitting the ball solidly.

He's driving it to the outfield with every swing.

He only hit 11 groundballs in August of players in the NL with at least 75 PA's. The next closest was 16.

He's seeing the ball really well right now.

Kingspoint
09-01-2008, 07:29 PM
patterson would be a fine 4th outfielder.. this is his worst year in his career!!

Not even for a Beer League.

Kingspoint
09-01-2008, 07:31 PM
I'd wait for a larger sample size before letting this kid start in '09.

You're always waiting for a larger sample size.

Who would start instead?

redsbuckeye
09-02-2008, 10:24 AM
You're always waiting for a larger sample size.

Who would start instead?

That's an inane comment. He's played 16 games, how about waiting for 100+ before we think he's ready to be a full time starter for the next 15 years.

Wait for pitchers to figure out his hole, just like what happened to Bruce. Dickerson is a career .260 hitter in the minors, why does everyone think he's suddenly going to consistently hit .328? If it's 16 games then you need to go back to statistics class.

Now, that being said, he does have some OBP potential which would be nice at the top of the lineup. He OBPed .360 in the minors. That's only about a .325 ML equivalent but one hopes he's not done developing yet. If he could do .360 again, i'd be pretty happy with him at the top.

Ghosts of 1990
09-02-2008, 01:39 PM
He's hitting the ball solidly.

He's driving it to the outfield with every swing.

He only hit 11 groundballs in August of players in the NL with at least 75 PA's. The next closest was 16.

He's seeing the ball really well right now.

if he doesn't start hitting it on the ground and using his speed it will catch up to him.

mace
09-02-2008, 02:08 PM
Dickerson is a career .260 hitter in the minors, why does everyone think he's suddenly going to consistently hit .328?



It often seems that we place far too much authority in a guy's minor-league numbers. Players learn, grow, mature, change. In Dickerson's case, for instance, his performance improved markedly in his latter months at Louisville. Sure, it could be sample size, but it could also be that he's a different hitter than he was in April, or in Chattanooga. Chris Welsh has observed that he hardly resembles the guy they saw in Sarasota this spring. I'm not saying that Dickerson is a .320 hitter, but maybe we should judge by what we see rather than what he produced in his developmental years. It doesn't take an expert to recognize that he has a good eye and a quick bat. For a young player, minor-league stats are informative, certainly, but not binding.

redsbuckeye
09-02-2008, 02:18 PM
It often seems that we place far too much authority in a guy's minor-league numbers. Players learn, grow, mature, change. In Dickerson's case, for instance, his performance improved markedly in his latter months at Louisville. Sure, it could be sample size, but it could also be that he's a different hitter than he was in April, or in Chattanooga. Chris Welsh has observed that he hardly resembles the guy they saw in Sarasota this spring. I'm not saying that Dickerson is a .320 hitter, but maybe we should judge by what we see rather than what he produced in his developmental years. It doesn't take an expert to recognize that he has a good eye and a quick bat. For a young player, minor-league stats are informative, certainly, but not binding.

Way, way more often than not minor league stats are a predictor of major league performance. If he has a good eye and a quick bat, then why hasn't he produced results in the minor leagues? It's the exact same talent set after all. And then there's the incentive to get to the majors.

Sure every now and then someone breaks the rule and does better in the majors. But that's winning the lottery. Maybe Dickerson is a winning lottery ticket, but in reality the drawing hasn't even been had yet.

As an aside, there's a whole chapter in Moneyball about the bolded part and exactly why that's not the way to evaluate players.

Orenda
09-02-2008, 02:29 PM
If you don't look at his numbers the first two months of the season and just look at his last three you'll see a guy who has been locked in at the plate. Over the last three months he hasn't had an OBP below .400. Just like everyone else he still has to prove he can produce consistently once the league gets a chance to see him, but right now you have to keep riding him until his performance slips. Hopefully he can develop some consistency as his career progresses and keep that OBP% north of .350 to be a valuable asset at the top of the order. It would certainly help Dusty out.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-02-2008, 03:28 PM
his defense is good too...

redsbuckeye
09-02-2008, 03:43 PM
his defense is good too...

Although better than Dunn, still about an average (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/dickech01.php) LF.

mace
09-02-2008, 04:35 PM
Way, way more often than not minor league stats are a predictor of major league performance. If he has a good eye and a quick bat, then why hasn't he produced results in the minor leagues? It's the exact same talent set after all. And then there's the incentive to get to the majors.



I agree, as I noted, that minor-league production is informative. But not binding. There is room for exceptions and for development. Are you suggesting that a player's eye cannot improve between the time he is 21 and 27? I'm not sure I'd call a guy's batting eye "the exact same talent set." Yes, it's a function of talent, to some degree, but also of maturity and refinement. The quick bat is not as easy to explain, but those who saw Dickerson in the spring (Welsh, Grande . . . ) have repeatedly attested to the difference. I acknowledge the oddness in that. But maybe he's using a lighter bat. Maybe he has improved his strength and conditioning. Maybe he's more aggressive. My point is, one way or another, a player can get better. To a substantial degree, most don't. But some do.

redsbuckeye
09-02-2008, 05:00 PM
I agree, as I noted, that minor-league production is informative. But not BINDING. There is room for exceptions and for development. Are you suggesting that a player's eye cannot improve between the time he is 21 and 27? I'm not sure I'd call a guy's batting eye "the exact same talent set." Yes, it's a function of talent, to some degree, but also of maturity and refinement. The quick bat is not as easy to explain, but those who saw Dickerson in the spring (Welsh, Grande . . . ) have repeatedly attested to the difference. I acknowledge the oddness in that. But maybe he's using a lighter bat. Maybe he has improved his strength and conditioning. Maybe he's more aggressive. My point is, one way or another, a player can get better. To a substantial degree, most don't. But some do.

There's very little evidence to suggest that batters improve their plate patience throughout their career to any significant degree, to the point where Billy Beane has given up trying to teach patience to hitters (another Moneyball quote).

In any case, it's not his walks that are worrisome, it's his hitting ability. And the comment about the talent set was that it takes the same talents to hit in the minors as in the majors (there's no fundamental difference in it, after all). Which begs the question why one would expect a sudden shift in talent from the change in level. Again, my reasoning is it's been only a few games and pitchers have yet to figure out his weaknesses.

mace
09-02-2008, 05:30 PM
There's very little evidence to suggest that batters improve their plate patience throughout their career to any significant degree, to the point where Billy Beane has given up trying to teach patience to hitters (another Moneyball quote).

In any case, it's not his walks that are worrisome, it's his hitting ability. And the comment about the talent set was that it takes the same talents to hit in the minors as in the majors (there's no fundamental difference in it, after all). Which begs the question why one would expect a sudden shift in talent from the change in level. Again, my reasoning is it's been only a few games and pitchers have yet to figure out his weaknesses.

By "batting eye," I didn't necessarily mean the capacity to take walks. What counts most is the ability to swing at the right pitch; to hit your pitch, not the pitcher's. To a significant extent, that's an acquired skill.

Look, if there's no possibility of a player's performance improving from level to level, why not reduce the farm system to one or two teams? By your measure, about 80 percent of the players in the system have virtually no chance of making it. So why spend all that money on their development? Why not simply extrapolate a guy's numbers from Rookie League, maybe give him one more shot, and then be done with it?

Again, I'm not declaring Dickerson a star. I'm not saying that he'll be a .300 hitter for the next 10 years. I'm simply contending that we shouldn't doom him to be a lifetime .240 guy simply because that's what he was at the ages of 23 and 24.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-02-2008, 05:34 PM
Although better than Dunn, still about an average (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/dickech01.php) LF.

i dont think there is a stat that is sortable that compares how many bases he saves compared to other fielders.. just because he doesnt catch much more than others doesnt mean he doesnt save bases and runs..

redsbuckeye
09-02-2008, 08:13 PM
i dont think there is a stat that is sortable that compares how many bases he saves compared to other fielders.. just because he doesnt catch much more than others doesnt mean he doesnt save bases and runs..

FRAA is a comparitive stat to the fielders of that year, it rates them among their peers.

Find a problem with the derivation of the stat and then you've got a point, otherwise it's ad hominem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem).

gilpdawg
09-02-2008, 10:27 PM
Trashing??? Perhaps you need to go back to school and address your inablity to comprehend what you read. I said "I hope Dickerson continues to impress enough to justify the job for 2009." How is that trashing??? I also did not call him a AAAA player nor did I ever mention Dunn.

My point is AAAA players do tend to hit better this time of year. Remember a guy named Brandon Larson??? Giving Dickerson an extended chance well in to next season could help rule out that possibility. The only guy I trashed was Patterson because he is wasting cf. Dickerson should be dropped in cf only and not touched for atleast 1 calander year.
This guy is right. Remember this guy? Look at his stats for his "cup of coffee" year.
THIS (http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nortoph01.shtml)

aerontg
09-02-2008, 10:53 PM
Trashing??? Perhaps you need to go back to school and address your inablity to comprehend what you read. I also did not call him a AAAA player nor did I ever mention Dunn.

Do you not read what you write? If it wasn't you who wrote this:

"I like him a lot so far, but AAAA players usually have a little more success this time of year."

then who did write that? Furthermore, there's no need to personally attack other posters on this site. I simply questioned you for calling him what you called him. No more, no less.

walk-off
09-03-2008, 06:47 AM
Do you not read what you write? If it wasn't you who wrote this:

"I like him a lot so far, but AAAA players usually have a little more success this time of year."

then who did write that? Furthermore, there's no need to personally attack other posters on this site. I simply questioned you for calling him what you called him. No more, no less.

I do not think he is an AAAA player. I like him a lot. He is an athlete and a cheap in house solution. My point was that putting him permanently in cf right now and leaving him there for 1 calander year over CP could rule out him being an AAAA player. It was me, calling to give the guy a chance, not calling him a name. Please read more carefully!!!

fitz1
09-03-2008, 05:57 PM
Chris Dickerson is better than I expected. From what I've seen his year is similar to Joey Votto's when he came up last year and Votto has had a great year. To me Dickerson is our centerfielder until someone outplays him. He needs to become a smarter baserunner but I've been very impressed with his play so far and he's doing what we expect a leadoff hitter to be. I like an outfield with Bruce and Dickerson in it.

Kingspoint
09-04-2008, 07:09 PM
. He's played 16 games, how about waiting for 100+ before we think he's ready to be a full time starter for the next 15 years.



That's an insane comment.

Since when did anyone say that Chris Dickerson should be the next Henry Aaron or Willie Mays?

The only thing anyone has ever talked about concerning Chris Dickerson is starting the 2009 season.

He's clearly earned that based upon everything he's done since May 29th.

redsbuckeye
09-04-2008, 08:40 PM
That's an insane comment.

See, when you try to mock me, perhaps you should use the right word.


Since when did anyone say that Chris Dickerson should be the next Henry Aaron or Willie Mays?

The only thing anyone has ever talked about concerning Chris Dickerson is starting the 2009 season.

He's clearly earned that based upon everything he's done since May 29th.

I never suggested that anyone claimed he was the next Reds HOFer, but some seem to think he's ready to fit the next 5 or 10 or 15 year plan.

Kingspoint
09-05-2008, 04:08 AM
See, when you try to mock me, perhaps you should use the right word.



I never suggested that anyone claimed he was the next Reds HOFer, but some seem to think he's ready to fit the next 5 or 10 or 15 year plan.

I meant every bit of the word "insane", instead of your use of "inane". You just didn't get it.

Again, I don't see posts here suggesting that he be the next Center Fielder for the REDS for the next 15, 10, or 5 years. Care to try again, or just apologize now for suggesting such?

redsbuckeye
09-05-2008, 07:30 AM
I meant every bit of the word "insane", instead of your use of "inane". You just didn't get it.

Sure, whatever helps you sleep at night.


Again, I don't see posts here suggesting that he be the next Center Fielder for the REDS for the next 15, 10, or 5 years. Care to try again, or just apologize now for suggesting such?

I apologize for nothing.

kpresidente
09-05-2008, 06:01 PM
Although better than Dunn, still about an average (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/dickech01.php) LF.

If we're taking his defensive stats from the time he got called up, then we can take his offensive stats too, which means he's best hitter in baseball.

It's a ridiculously small sample size.

BA named him the best defensive outfielder in the Reds system. He's much better than an average left fielder.

TC81190
09-05-2008, 06:39 PM
FRAA is a comparitive stat to the fielders of that year, it rates them among their peers.

Find a problem with the derivation of the stat and then you've got a point, otherwise it's ad hominem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem).
Defensive metrics...they mean nothing. The tarot cards of baseball statistics.

redsbuckeye
09-05-2008, 06:54 PM
If we're taking his defensive stats from the time he got called up, then we can take his offensive stats too, which means he's best hitter in baseball.

It's a ridiculously small sample size.

BA named him the best defensive outfielder in the Reds system. He's much better than an average left fielder.

My fault, wrong card. Here's his minor league stuff which has the same stat for defense. Defense doesn't need to be adjusted for level.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/DICKERSON19820410A.php

redsbuckeye
09-05-2008, 06:54 PM
Defensive metrics...they mean nothing. The tarot cards of baseball statistics.

Reread the second line of that post you quoted.

kpresidente
09-05-2008, 07:06 PM
My fault, wrong card. Here's his minor league stuff which has the same stat for defense. Defense doesn't need to be adjusted for level.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/DICKERSON19820410A.php

Not a member. Can you post the FRAA numbers?

TC81190
09-05-2008, 07:07 PM
Reread the second line of that post you quoted.
I'm not sure I understand your point. :confused:

redsbuckeye
09-05-2008, 09:48 PM
Not a member. Can you post the FRAA numbers?

It's the defense column, I'm not a member either.

I guess it doesn't say explicitly that it's FRAA but if you click the defense header it says that's what the number is.

redsbuckeye
09-05-2008, 10:00 PM
I'm not sure I understand your point. :confused:

Nevermind.

I'm actually going to back off the FRAA stuff for the time being. BP no longer publishes the formula for FRAA, so you wouldn't be able to research it. I saw it at one point or at least the base formula for it and it made sense but I can't find that now.

I'm still certain is a valuable stat, but I may be confusing what the numbers mean.

757690
09-06-2008, 03:02 AM
Way, way more often than not minor league stats are a predictor of major league performance. If he has a good eye and a quick bat, then why hasn't he produced results in the minor leagues? It's the exact same talent set after all. And then there's the incentive to get to the majors.

Sure every now and then someone breaks the rule and does better in the majors. But that's winning the lottery. Maybe Dickerson is a winning lottery ticket, but in reality the drawing hasn't even been had yet.

As an aside, there's a whole chapter in Moneyball about the bolded part and exactly why that's not the way to evaluate players.

You shouldn't evaluate a player soley by his career minor league numbers. The method that nearly all MLB talent evaluators use is to pay attention to a players ability to improve. What you look for is for a player to move up level by level, and do better each year than the previous year.

Just look at Reds hitters and their minor league OPS's

EE
.723
.790
.797
.936

Dunn
.819
.872
1.105
1.103
1.107


Votto
.800
.911
.725
.955
.859

Bruce
.825
.962
1.023

Dickerson
.770
.775
.708
.779
.768
.863


Dickerson, like Votto, sometimes took a step back before taking a step forward, but he always ended up improving. That is why they are in the minors, not so that they can put up good numbers, but so that they can learn and improve. Dickerson has shown that he has done that at every level.

While there is no way that Dickerson can maintain a 1.000 OPS, his minor league stats show that he should be able to maintain a .750-.800 OPS in the majors if he plays everyday. If he can play at least average defense for a CF, I think the Reds would be happy with that production next year.