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View Full Version : Why Exactly is Edwin Encarnacion Still a Questin Mark?



Phhhl
08-30-2008, 01:24 AM
His defense, despite his range, is still not perfect, and his batting average is not as high as it was last year. Still, this club is starving for more production from the right side of the dish, not less. It is fashionable to want to put Votto in the outfield, but even moreso to want to ship Edwin somewhere for chaffe because he doesn't look like a hustler... or something nondescript...

This guy is a cornerstone of the new Reds. I like him as a third baseman, but I like him as a corner outfielder if that is what it takes to call off the dogs. I just don't care what it takes to keep him in the lineup as he continutes to develop. It is exasperating to me that the club might be considering a free agent for multi-millions of dollars just to match what Edwin is starting to resemble.

I sincerely hope the doubt that continues to plague Edwin is a media creation, and the club understands what it has on it's hands.

He is maturing into a true offensive force from the right side of the plate to sandwich in between Bruce and Votto.

fearofpopvol1
08-30-2008, 01:35 AM
Honest question to you...

If he didn't hit the grand slam tonight, would you have still made this post?

I'm sure everything you stated above still stands, but it seems all too common at RZ that someone will start threads like these after the said player has a big game.

Phhhl
08-30-2008, 01:45 AM
Honest question to you...

If he didn't hit the grand slam tonight, would you have still made this post?

I'm sure everything you stated above still stands, but it seems all too common at RZ that someone will start threads like these after the said player has a big game.


Valid question, but I like Edwin every night of the week. I have no idea why he draws so much negative attention. I read and hear the geniuses who cover this team try to dismiss his production every other day, it seems. Jeff Keppinger's ceiling is a super utility guy that can punch a liner through the infield late in a ballgame, and yet people continue to propagate him as a viable replacement for Edwin even if we traded him for a loogy. It's ridiculous. The drop off between Kep and Edwin is evil.

The only thing I would try to change about Edwin is his offseason schedule. It is my opinion he gets fatiqued from playing winter ball and suffers for extended periods of the major league season because of it.

WVRedsFan
08-30-2008, 01:48 AM
I don't see what others see in him. Plain and simple. I don't have faith in him. He seems in a fog a lot of times--just like tonight when he stood at the plate after ball 4, not knowing what the count was. I think this plays over to his defensive play at times. He seemingly doesn't have a clue.

These are fighting words I know, but I agree with fearofpopvol1. For too long these pages have proclaimed Edwin to be the great player he is not. He's OK, that's all. I think the Reds need a better third baseman than a kid who, at 25 years old, still goes into periods of seemingly being totally clueless at the plate and in the field. He seems to come out in these blowouts (if you can consider tonight's game a blowout), but when he's needed to get the big hit, he swings at pitches he cannot hit or is so impatient at the plate that he fails time after time.

Like I said, he's adequate even with the throwing blumders, but as a third baseman to build a club around...no. I think it's time (and I believe the powers that be know this) to get what you can out of him and move on. He will not improve on his career .267 career average and low RBI totals for his position. He's fool's gold. Just like Jeff Keppinger at shortstop, the position needs to be upgraded. Whether or not this is possible and looking at what's available, he may be the best we can do, but I'm tied of this "he's young" argument.

RedsManRick
08-30-2008, 01:49 AM
I don't think EE is a cornerstone talent on a playoff team, but he's a cost-effective solid contributor and right now that's basically tied with BP and Votto for the best we've got. But as the price tag goes up, and it starts next season, EE is going to be judged increasingly for what he's not.

Cincinnatians, like most midwesterners, value effort, attitude, and a sense of community more than production or results. It's that simple and has been for as long as I've been alive. It's the classic pre-industrial /depression era protestant-work-ethic value system we're all intimately familiar with.

The guy doesn't look one of "us". He doesn't look like he's trying as hard as he could be. And perhaps worst of all, he's inconsistent in terms of doing what "regular" people value most from their baseball players, hitting for a high batting average and making the routine play. It's a wonderful recipe for scaped goat. Every throw over 1B is seen as a moral failing, just as Dunn's Ks were. Every failed RBI further proof of his laziness.

And EE will be run out of here by the fan base the same way Dunn was. Without Dunn and Junior, EE is actually the longest tenured Reds position player, just ahead of Phillips. As such, he's going to bear the weight of the lack of talent around him as a multiplier against his own failings.

dougdirt
08-30-2008, 01:59 AM
I like Edwin a lot more if he happens to make a Ryan Braun type move to the outfield. He is a solid offensive player right now and I think for the next 5-7 years he will be an above average hitter, but his defense at third base negates all of what his offense brings.

Benihana
08-30-2008, 02:26 AM
His defense, despite his range, is still not perfect, and his batting average is not as high as it was last year. Still, this club is starving for more production from the right side of the dish, not less. It is fashionable to want to put Votto in the outfield, but even moreso to want to ship Edwin somewhere for chaffe because he doesn't look like a hustler... or something nondescript...

This guy is a cornerstone of the new Reds. I like him as a third baseman, but I like him as a corner outfielder if that is what it takes to call off the dogs. I just don't care what it takes to keep him in the lineup as he continutes to develop. It is exasperating to me that the club might be considering a free agent for multi-millions of dollars just to match what Edwin is starting to resemble.

I sincerely hope the doubt that continues to plague Edwin is a media creation, and the club understands what it has on it's hands.

He is maturing into a true offensive force from the right side of the plate to sandwich in between Bruce and Votto.

I agree. I am an Edwin Encarnacion fan. (spoken in the voice of Office Space.) In another couple years when he gets more expensive, I may have a different perspective, but until then- I stand behind EdE

Ron Madden
08-30-2008, 02:51 AM
[QUOTE=WVRedsFan;1732149]I don't see what others see in him.

You aint lookin'. You just listen and believe.

fearofpopvol1
08-30-2008, 03:05 AM
I don't think EE is a cornerstone talent on a playoff team, but he's a cost-effective solid contributor and right now that's basically tied with BP and Votto for the best we've got. But as the price tag goes up, and it starts next season, EE is going to be judged increasingly for what he's not.

Cincinnatians, like most midwesterners, value effort, attitude, and a sense of community more than production or results. It's that simple and has been for as long as I've been alive. It's the classic pre-industrial /depression era protestant-work-ethic value system we're all intimately familiar with.

The guy doesn't look one of "us". He doesn't look like he's trying as hard as he could be. And perhaps worst of all, he's inconsistent in terms of doing what "regular" people value most from their baseball players, hitting for a high batting average and making the routine play. It's a wonderful recipe for scaped goat. Every throw over 1B is seen as a moral failing, just as Dunn's Ks were. Every failed RBI further proof of his laziness.

And EE will be run out of here by the fan base the same way Dunn was. Without Dunn and Junior, EE is actually the longest tenured Reds position player, just ahead of Phillips. As such, he's going to bear the weight of the lack of talent around him as a multiplier against his own failings.

I think there is a LOT Of truth to this post. I think the bigger problem is the Reds just need better players. I don't think EdE will ever be the star of the team and I don't think he would be the star on any really good team. That's not to say he's not a good player (as he is having a good offensive season), but he needs other good players surrounding him because he's not a (super)star.

I also agree with Doug, I really think his defense hurts his overall value. I'd try him out in LF.

mth123
08-30-2008, 03:19 AM
I think EdE is productive enough for 3B. Not sure if he's productive enough for LF. I really think Votto's lack of ability to pick it is more harmful in the IF than EdE is and with Alonso probably arriving at some point in 2009, Votto's the guy I'd move to LF (his bat probably would be better out there than EdE anyway IMO).

If EdE's defense settles down, he could be a long term 3B IMO. If the defense doesn't improve, he's a guy to replace in the next year or two. Right now there really isn't an adequate replacement ready (Rosales and Keppinger are supersubs IMO and not every day 3B), but the line is quite long for guys ready by 2010. Todd Frazier may be a guy there and Neftali Soto looks like a player for the future. Juan Francisco has big power with favorable reports about his defense and should be in AA in 2009. Brandon Waring is also a guy to consider. Add that Chris Valaika may eventually have to move there if his glove doesn't hold up in the MI, and EdE looks like a guy to deal at some point in 2009 or afterwards. The team may be better off dealing him this offseason when he's a little cheaper and the return may be a little better. Rosales and Keppinger could be stopgap players until one of the kids is ready.

EdE's future in Cincy seems to be entirely based on what he could bring in return. If he gets back a tasty SS of the future or a decent starting pitcher, then I'd probably deal him and get by with the stopgaps until one of the kids takes the job. If the return is mediocre, I'd probably keep EdE and shop a couple of the kids for what the team needs.

Ron Madden
08-30-2008, 03:39 AM
I believe Edwin has the most talent of any young infeilder in the Reds organization.

That is cause for alarm.

Jpup
08-30-2008, 03:54 AM
I don't see what others see in him. Plain and simple. I don't have faith in him. He seems in a fog a lot of times--just like tonight when he stood at the plate after ball 4, not knowing what the count was. I think this plays over to his defensive play at times. He seemingly doesn't have a clue.

These are fighting words I know, but I agree with fearofpopvol1. For too long these pages have proclaimed Edwin to be the great player he is not. He's OK, that's all. I think the Reds need a better third baseman than a kid who, at 25 years old, still goes into periods of seemingly being totally clueless at the plate and in the field. He seems to come out in these blowouts (if you can consider tonight's game a blowout), but when he's needed to get the big hit, he swings at pitches he cannot hit or is so impatient at the plate that he fails time after time.

Like I said, he's adequate even with the throwing blumders, but as a third baseman to build a club around...no. I think it's time (and I believe the powers that be know this) to get what you can out of him and move on. He will not improve on his career .267 career average and low RBI totals for his position. He's fool's gold. Just like Jeff Keppinger at shortstop, the position needs to be upgraded. Whether or not this is possible and looking at what's available, he may be the best we can do, but I'm tied of this "he's young" argument.

You don't understand what he brings to the Reds. When you are evaluating him on his batting average and RBIs then your argument doesn't hold much water. Compare him to other third baseman in the NL and see what you get.

Red in Chicago
08-30-2008, 07:32 AM
You don't understand what he brings to the Reds. When you are evaluating him on his batting average and RBIs then your argument doesn't hold much water. Compare him to other third baseman in the NL and see what you get.

which show's he's pretty much average offensively, and below average defensively...i like edwin, but he can be extremely frustrating to watch at times...

919191
08-30-2008, 07:58 AM
He seems to come out in these blowouts (if you can consider tonight's game a blowout), but when he's needed to get the big hit, he swings at pitches he cannot hit or is so impatient at the plate that he fails time after time.



I didn't see last night's game, I just read the newspaper reports. Sounds like it was somewhat of a blow-out due in large part to EE. What, 5 RBI in a 4 run win?

From Fay's blog- He came into this year as a .486 hitter with the bases juiced.

jojo
08-30-2008, 08:47 AM
I like Edwin a lot more if he happens to make a Ryan Braun type move to the outfield. He is a solid offensive player right now and I think for the next 5-7 years he will be an above average hitter, but his defense at third base negates all of what his offense brings.

Yep. He's basically a slightly above average bat at third while being one of the worst defensive third baseman in the majors.

He could have a monster season with the bat (such a thing is within his skillset), but I don't think it would be a repeatable thing.

redsmetz
08-30-2008, 08:50 AM
I think EdE is productive enough for 3B. Not sure if he's productive enough for LF. I really think Votto's lack of ability to pick it is more harmful in the IF than EdE is and with Alonso probably arriving at some point in 2009, Votto's the guy I'd move to LF (his bat probably would be better out there than EdE anyway IMO).

If EdE's defense settles down, he could be a long term 3B IMO. If the defense doesn't improve, he's a guy to replace in the next year or two. Right now there really isn't an adequate replacement ready (Rosales and Keppinger are supersubs IMO and not every day 3B), but the line is quite long for guys ready by 2010. Todd Frazier may be a guy there and Neftali Soto looks like a player for the future. Juan Francisco has big power with favorable reports about his defense and should be in AA in 2009. Brandon Waring is also a guy to consider. Add that Chris Valaika may eventually have to move there if his glove doesn't hold up in the MI, and EdE looks like a guy to deal at some point in 2009 or afterwards. The team may be better off dealing him this offseason when he's a little cheaper and the return may be a little better. Rosales and Keppinger could be stopgap players until one of the kids is ready.

EdE's future in Cincy seems to be entirely based on what he could bring in return. If he gets back a tasty SS of the future or a decent starting pitcher, then I'd probably deal him and get by with the stopgaps until one of the kids takes the job. If the return is mediocre, I'd probably keep EdE and shop a couple of the kids for what the team needs.

I think this is a fairly clear analysis of the situation. We've got a good bit coming up that can take his place if something of relative value comes up in a trade possibility.

People are correct that Edwin can be maddening. He's probably never going to be a great star or a cornerstone, as others have said, but he can be a basic "meat and potatoes" player. Whether that continues to be for us or for someone else, that remains to be seen. But he's the least of our worries.

wolfboy
08-30-2008, 09:24 AM
I don't see what others see in him. Plain and simple. I don't have faith in him. He seems in a fog a lot of times--just like tonight when he stood at the plate after ball 4, not knowing what the count was. I think this plays over to his defensive play at times. He seemingly doesn't have a clue.

These are fighting words I know, but I agree with fearofpopvol1. For too long these pages have proclaimed Edwin to be the great player he is not. He's OK, that's all. I think the Reds need a better third baseman than a kid who, at 25 years old, still goes into periods of seemingly being totally clueless at the plate and in the field. He seems to come out in these blowouts (if you can consider tonight's game a blowout), but when he's needed to get the big hit, he swings at pitches he cannot hit or is so impatient at the plate that he fails time after time.

Like I said, he's adequate even with the throwing blumders, but as a third baseman to build a club around...no. I think it's time (and I believe the powers that be know this) to get what you can out of him and move on. He will not improve on his career .267 career average and low RBI totals for his position. He's fool's gold. Just like Jeff Keppinger at shortstop, the position needs to be upgraded. Whether or not this is possible and looking at what's available, he may be the best we can do, but I'm tied of this "he's young" argument.

I'm kind of saddened by this post. It's the textbook anti-Dunn post, but directed at Edwin. All the key elements are there:
-His head isn't in the game.
-He doesn't look like he cares
-He doesn't swing at the right pitches
-He doesn't defend his position well
-He only comes through when it doesn't matter (the game was 0-0 when he hit the grand slam)
I've said it before and I'll say it again: fix what's broken. Edwin may not be an all world player, but he's not what's plaguing this team. Are we really talking about getting rid of the relatively cheap, slightly above average guy when we have Patterson, Keppinger and Bako getting regular at bats?

puca
08-30-2008, 09:32 AM
Someone has to be the whipping boy. It is Edwin's turn.

Must replace guys that can hit with guys that look like they care.

pahster
08-30-2008, 09:55 AM
Someone has to be the whipping boy. It is Edwin's turn.

Must replace guys that can hit with guys that look like they care.

Soon enough guys like Bruce and Phillips will be the focal points for such things.

BCubb2003
08-30-2008, 10:10 AM
For balance, and to challenge our assumptions a little, we know that the scrappy "plays the game the right way" player is often overrated by the local chatter, but it's possible that there's a type of ballplayer that RedsZone tends to overrated, just a little. The characteristics are: Young player who comes up through the system, with athletic but inconsistent defense, the right kind of offensive numbers in the minors, whose playing time is blocked by an aging, slow-moving but steady veteran from elsewhere. If RedsZone has a blind spot at all, and it's not much of one, it would be in falling in love with and hanging on to that kind of player.

lollipopcurve
08-30-2008, 10:18 AM
For balance, and to challenge our assumptions a little, we know that the scrappy "plays the game the right way" player is often overrated by the local chatter, but it's possible that there's a type of ballplayer that RedsZone tends to overrated, just a little. The characteristics are: Young player who comes up through the system, with athletic but inconsistent defense, the right kind of offensive numbers in the minors, whose playing time is blocked by an aging, slow-moving but steady veteran from elsewhere. If RedsZone has a blind spot at all, and it's not much of one, it would be in falling in love with and hanging on to that kind of player.

Very fair post.

Vada Pinson Fan
08-30-2008, 10:42 AM
I'm happy to see Edwin Encarnacion play up to his perceived abilities such as last night and great to see when he takes off his "stone face" and smiles. The media loves this flashy smile stuff from Brandon Phillips so perhaps an emulation from EE, in that regard, may help his persona in Cincinnati.

Third base wouldn't be at the top of my list for off-season moves to make unless it would be a "Krusty's Slobberknocker" special. The Reds have a ton of players that put up nice half-season (give or take) numbers and then find their way to the DL such as Hairston, Jr., Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel and the seldom seen Alex Gonzales among others. Way too much dead-weight such as (RP)Todd Coffey still hanging around in Louisville and needs to find greener pastures.

Catching has to be addressed. Javier Valentin, IMO, is a huge waste of bench space. There has to be a better PH'ing specialist that Jocketty could find.

Centerfield needs a new acquistion in '09 and definitely not Corey Patterson. I can see Chris Dickerson in Center next year IF a better option isn't found.

Leftfield- I wouldn't put Votto there. I think Votto cares about his game and will improve with time. Why a team like the Reds don't take pre-game infield practice is beyond me and that has been the case here for years .
This spot (LF or Center) needs filled through trade or what little there is in Free Agency.

Shortstop- We had hoped Alex Gonzales was the answer here but it hasn't worked out that way. Time to again look elsewhere.

Overall- I remember something Pete Rose said from time to time when he was managing and that was- leave guys in long enough (to play) and you'll see why they shouldn't be starters. The current Reds have way too many players that fit that statement.

Overall Part II- in regard to the starting eight spots- The Reds are terribly weak at catcher (can Hannigan throw accurately to 2nd enough to play everyday? Can he hit enough?)the Reds need new blood here, good to very good (potentially) at first base, very solid at 2nd, weak at SS (Keppinger has limited range), good to very good (potentially- EE is still young) at 3rd and the outfield looks to be in good hands with Bruce (once he gets his game back to where we know it can be) and Dickerson looks like a pleasant surprise perhaps next year Chris Dickerson can put up numbers like Ryan Ludwick is doing for St. Louis this year. So another outfielder is needed.

Looks to me like Jocketty's plate is going to be quite full even without addressing some posters feelings that 3rd base needs attention also. The off-season should be very interesting for the Reds. I think Castellini will mandate just that! We shall see!

Spring~Fields
08-30-2008, 12:01 PM
Edwin Encarnacion
2006 Season
Total .276 .359 .473 .832

Best Months
April .288 .387 .550 .937
June .357 .375 .643 1.018
July .375 .459 .531 .990
August .317 .378 .614 .992
Pre-All Star .268 .361 .474 .835
Post-All Star .282 .357 .472 .829

Batting #4 .299 .374 .569 .943
Batting #6 .293 .375 .543 .918
Batting #7 .298 .393 .489 .882

vs. Left .248 .368 .460 .828
vs. Right .287 .355 .478 .833


2007 Season
Total .289 .356 .438 .794

Best Months
May .286 .366 .476 .842
June .305 .389 .432 .821
August .350 .374 .534 .908
September .322 .394 .575 .969
Pre-All Star .270 .353 .391 .744
Post-All Star .309 .360 .488 .848

Batting #6 .286 .361 .442 .803
Batting #7 .357 .400 .476 .876
Batting #8 .306 .346 .571 .917

vs. Left .284 .378 .426 .804
vs. Right .291 .346 .444 .790


2008 Season to date
Total .249 .332 .467 .799

Best Months
April .293 .369 .576 .945
June .294 .422 .603 1.025
July .291 .367 .620 .987
Pre-All Star .259 .341 .481 .822
Post-All Star .227 .313 .438 .751

Batting #5 .239 .320 .358 .678
Batting #6 .251 .332 .484 .816
Batting #7 .315 .413 .648 1.061


I think that Encarncion would produce even better numbers if he had been positioned in a more advanatgeous position in the batting order with good hitters in front and behind him.

Degenerate39
08-30-2008, 12:05 PM
Could Votto play 3rd base? With Edwin going to Left field and Alonso taking over at first? If Votto can't play 3rd base then I'd leave Edwin there.

Patrick Bateman
08-30-2008, 01:09 PM
I don't see what others see in him. Plain and simple. I don't have faith in him. He seems in a fog a lot of times--just like tonight when he stood at the plate after ball 4, not knowing what the count was. I think this plays over to his defensive play at times. He seemingly doesn't have a clue.

These are fighting words I know, but I agree with fearofpopvol1. For too long these pages have proclaimed Edwin to be the great player he is not. He's OK, that's all. I think the Reds need a better third baseman than a kid who, at 25 years old, still goes into periods of seemingly being totally clueless at the plate and in the field. He seems to come out in these blowouts (if you can consider tonight's game a blowout), but when he's needed to get the big hit, he swings at pitches he cannot hit or is so impatient at the plate that he fails time after time.

Like I said, he's adequate even with the throwing blumders, but as a third baseman to build a club around...no. I think it's time (and I believe the powers that be know this) to get what you can out of him and move on. He will not improve on his career .267 career average and low RBI totals for his position. He's fool's gold. Just like Jeff Keppinger at shortstop, the position needs to be upgraded. Whether or not this is possible and looking at what's available, he may be the best we can do, but I'm tied of this "he's young" argument.

I think there is quite a bit of truth to this, even if a lot of folks don't like the way you put it.

In essence, it ties into Rick's point. I agree, at this point, EE doesn't look like a major building block. His defense remains stagnant, and basically hasn't improved since he first came up. His bat carries his total value. That would be fine if he hit like Adam Dunn, a player who did provide great value solely because of the bat, but EE currently does not hit like Dunn, nor does he project to hit like Dunn in the future.

In total, EE is something like an average overall starting 3rd basemen. That's not bad, and he has a ceiling to grow on that, but in the long run, I'm really not all that interested in signing him to an expensive long term deal. In the short term, I'm all for holding on to EE until a more viable solution comes in (ie. Frazier) pushing EE into trade bait, but until then, I'll happily except the averageish production that he offers on cheap salaries. But I don't think he's any kind of building block in the long term.

SMcGavin
08-30-2008, 02:24 PM
Yep. He's basically a slightly above average bat at third while being one of the worst defensive third baseman in the majors.


My thoughts too. When evaluating Edwin people often say things like "he's inconsistent in the field but..." Really, you can't just brush off his defense like that, he is absolutely terrible at 3B. Move him to LF, get roughly league average production for pretty cheap, and find a real third baseman.

Team Clark
08-30-2008, 02:29 PM
His slumps remind me of Nick Esasky. Great for a week, horrible for two.

nate
08-30-2008, 03:06 PM
His slumps remind me of Nick Esasky. Great for a week, horrible for two.

Is that true though? And, if it is, does he "slump" any more than any other player?

For example, when I hear someone say "so and so is inconsistent," I pull up their game logs and look for (one example) a bunch of 0-fers or 1-5 games in a row. If there's a week of "up" followed by "down," I would say that, yeah, a guy might be "slumpy."

But is it any different than any other player? This might be crude but here's a list of the number of times he's gone 1-4 or worse:


Edwin Encarnacion:
Longest Streak with
H<=1,
AB>=4
For 2008,
At least one AB or SF

StreakStart Streak End Games AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Teams
+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
2008-04-11 2008-04-15 4 16 0 4 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN

2008-08-04 2008-08-06 3 12 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 .083 .083 .083 .166 CIN
2008-06-15 2008-06-18 3 12 2 2 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 .167 .167 .417 .584 CIN
2008-05-25 2008-05-28 3 18 1 2 1 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 .111 .111 .167 .278 CIN
2008-05-12 2008-05-14 3 13 2 3 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 .231 .231 .385 .616 CIN

2008-08-26 2008-08-27 2 8 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 .125 .125 .250 .375 CIN
2008-08-20 2008-08-21 2 8 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 .125 .125 .250 .375 CIN
2008-08-14 2008-08-15 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .250 CIN
2008-07-27 2008-07-28 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-07-23 2008-07-25 2 8 1 2 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 .250 .250 .625 .875 CIN
2008-05-18 2008-05-20 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .250 CIN
2008-05-06 2008-05-07 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 .125 .222 .125 .347 CIN
2008-04-22 2008-04-23 2 8 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 .750 1.000 CIN
2008-04-07 2008-04-08 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 .000 .111 .000 .111 CIN

2008-08-23 2008-08-23 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-08-01 2008-08-01 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-07-20 2008-07-20 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-07-12 2008-07-12 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-07-06 2008-07-06 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-07-03 2008-07-03 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-06-21 2008-06-21 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-06-02 2008-06-02 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-05-30 2008-05-30 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-05-10 2008-05-10 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-04-30 2008-04-30 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-04-19 2008-04-19 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-04-02 2008-04-02 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN


My question is, is it any more or less "slumpy" than an average player?

KronoRed
08-30-2008, 03:11 PM
I think he's a good player to have on your team, he will rarely carry you but you're glad to have him there instead of journeymen backups.

Don't have to have an allstar at each spot, that said he might be a wise trading trip to shop due to the position he plays.

Yachtzee
08-30-2008, 03:29 PM
For balance, and to challenge our assumptions a little, we know that the scrappy "plays the game the right way" player is often overrated by the local chatter, but it's possible that there's a type of ballplayer that RedsZone tends to overrated, just a little. The characteristics are: Young player who comes up through the system, with athletic but inconsistent defense, the right kind of offensive numbers in the minors, whose playing time is blocked by an aging, slow-moving but steady veteran from elsewhere. If RedsZone has a blind spot at all, and it's not much of one, it would be in falling in love with and hanging on to that kind of player.

If EE and players of his type are overrated by Redszone, I think it can be attributed to a reaction to the Reds FO over the past few years and the fixation of the Cincinnati media on those "plays the game the right way" types. I seem to remember when Jim Bowden was GM, the fixation was on "tools" instead of production. Now it's on attitude instead of production or tools.

EE is a player who produces offensively, even though that production is streaky and often negated by poor plays defensively. However, his production is necessary because the Reds have chosen to fill other positions in the lineup with out machines and offensive black holes, allegedly because of defense, even though the boost to the defense is negligible. If people want to replace EE at third, they will need to fix the problems at other positions first. Only then will it make EE expendable.

WVRedsFan
08-30-2008, 03:55 PM
Apparently, Edwin has a lot of fans here, and that's OK, but twisting words to compare my criticism as being like the public crucifixion given to Adam Dunn is a little much. Dunn was far more valuable to this team than Edwin is, but I think another poster put it better than I did:


In essence, it ties into Rick's point. I agree, at this point, EE doesn't look like a major building block. His defense remains stagnant, and basically hasn't improved since he first came up. His bat carries his total value. That would be fine if he hit like Adam Dunn, a player who did provide great value solely because of the bat, but EE currently does not hit like Dunn, nor does he project to hit like Dunn in the future

Yes, Edwin is an average hitter and a below average fielder. But he's a guy who if you can move for something better you should. Attitude means nothing, performance does.

pahster
08-30-2008, 04:03 PM
But he's a guy who if you can move for something better you should.

Are there guys you shouldn't move for something better?

Big Klu
08-30-2008, 04:08 PM
I like Encarnacion, but no more so than I like any member of the Reds. If the club determines that they would be better served at 3B to look elsewhere, then I won't lose sleep over it.

However, even though some don't want to hear the excuse that he's still young (I don't like excuses, either), the fact is that he IS still young. At 25 years old, he already has three-and-a-half years of starting experience. In contrast, Chris Sabo (who is nearly universally considered the best Reds 3B of the last 20 years) didn't make his major-league debut until he was 26.

WVRedsFan
08-30-2008, 04:21 PM
Are there guys you shouldn't move for something better?Apparently Edwin is one.

I must be crazy or something. If any other member of the Reds had committed the number of errors Edwin has, this board would explode. People like him for some reason. I like him too, but not enough to ignore his glaring weaknesses.

pahster
08-30-2008, 04:32 PM
People like him because he's a good hitter who's still cheap and is young enough to improve.

Jpup
08-30-2008, 04:40 PM
Who are you going to get that is better than Edwin. He's 25 and I feel like he has improved and keeps improving.

Team Clark
08-30-2008, 04:49 PM
Is that true though? And, if it is, does he "slump" any more than any other player?

For example, when I hear someone say "so and so is inconsistent," I pull up their game logs and look for (one example) a bunch of 0-fers or 1-5 games in a row. If there's a week of "up" followed by "down," I would say that, yeah, a guy might be "slumpy."

But is it any different than any other player? This might be crude but here's a list of the number of times he's gone 1-4 or worse:


Edwin Encarnacion:
Longest Streak with
H<=1,
AB>=4
For 2008,
At least one AB or SF

StreakStart Streak End Games AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Teams
+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
2008-04-11 2008-04-15 4 16 0 4 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN

2008-08-04 2008-08-06 3 12 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 .083 .083 .083 .166 CIN
2008-06-15 2008-06-18 3 12 2 2 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 .167 .167 .417 .584 CIN
2008-05-25 2008-05-28 3 18 1 2 1 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 .111 .111 .167 .278 CIN
2008-05-12 2008-05-14 3 13 2 3 2 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 .231 .231 .385 .616 CIN

2008-08-26 2008-08-27 2 8 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 .125 .125 .250 .375 CIN
2008-08-20 2008-08-21 2 8 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 .125 .125 .250 .375 CIN
2008-08-14 2008-08-15 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .250 CIN
2008-07-27 2008-07-28 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-07-23 2008-07-25 2 8 1 2 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 0 .250 .250 .625 .875 CIN
2008-05-18 2008-05-20 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125 .250 CIN
2008-05-06 2008-05-07 2 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 .125 .222 .125 .347 CIN
2008-04-22 2008-04-23 2 8 2 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 .750 1.000 CIN
2008-04-07 2008-04-08 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 .000 .111 .000 .111 CIN

2008-08-23 2008-08-23 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-08-01 2008-08-01 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-07-20 2008-07-20 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-07-12 2008-07-12 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-07-06 2008-07-06 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-07-03 2008-07-03 1 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-06-21 2008-06-21 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-06-02 2008-06-02 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-05-30 2008-05-30 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-05-10 2008-05-10 1 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 CIN
2008-04-30 2008-04-30 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN
2008-04-19 2008-04-19 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 CIN
2008-04-02 2008-04-02 1 4 1 1 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 CIN


My question is, is it any more or less "slumpy" than an average player?


To me, it seems that Edwin has not found a consistent swing this season. I think you make an excellent post in that other players do "slump" at some point. Just part of the game. I guess it all comes down to what the expectations of consistency and just how bad a slump can be.

jojo
08-30-2008, 04:56 PM
I always root harder (i.e. have more patience) for homegrown guys I guess. Concerning EE, I've never had illusions about his bat and have being chastised in the past for suggesting his ceiling is one of a slightly above average third baseman. It's his defense so far that has been a huge disappointment IMHO.

Jpup
08-30-2008, 04:58 PM
I always root harder (i.e. have more patience) for homegrown guys I guess. Concerning EE, I've never had illusions about his bat and have being chastised in the past for suggesting his ceiling is one of a slightly above average third baseman. It's his defense so far that has been a huge disappointment IMHO.

I think he has pretty good range. his arm is, well, erratic.

Reds1
08-30-2008, 05:24 PM
He's just an average starter in the NL. He has good stretches, he has good slumps. If EE could become a bit more consistant and his defense was also more consistant I'd say he's a keeper, but in all honesty he's replaceable. I've never been fired up about EE for some reason. He's fine and he can play ball, but I was really hoping for Zimmerman or another trade the previous few years. I'm ok with him though. He's better then Feel there. ;)

Highlifeman21
08-30-2008, 08:04 PM
I like Edwin a lot more if he happens to make a Ryan Braun type move to the outfield. He is a solid offensive player right now and I think for the next 5-7 years he will be an above average hitter, but his defense at third base negates all of what his offense brings.

EE/Dickerson/Bruce is an OF I could easily support for 2009.

If that's the case, who plays 3B?

fearofpopvol1
08-30-2008, 08:09 PM
EE/Dickerson/Bruce is an OF I could easily support for 2009.

If that's the case, who plays 3B?

I would think Keppinger (especially if Gonzo is coming back).

Chip R
08-30-2008, 08:11 PM
For balance, and to challenge our assumptions a little, we know that the scrappy "plays the game the right way" player is often overrated by the local chatter, but it's possible that there's a type of ballplayer that RedsZone tends to overrated, just a little. The characteristics are: Young player who comes up through the system, with athletic but inconsistent defense, the right kind of offensive numbers in the minors, whose playing time is blocked by an aging, slow-moving but steady veteran from elsewhere. If RedsZone has a blind spot at all, and it's not much of one, it would be in falling in love with and hanging on to that kind of player.


I don't think anyone feels that EE is a superstar. Even the Yankees and Red Sox don't have 9 superstars in their lineup. He's a complimentary player and he's been paid like one. A lot of the Anti-Dunn set would have been able to tolerate him if he were being paid $3-4M a year instead of $13M. When he goes, there won't be any 1,000 post threads discussing his pros and cons.

I think awhile back WOY had a post about how tough it was to find good 3Bmen. The long and short of it was that very few teams have a guy at 3rd who can hit well and field well. That's OK if you aren't enamored with Edwin but who would be a more suitable alternative? Does anyone think Hariston, Keppinger or Freel are the answer there? Maybe short term but eventually fans are going to be looking for a better alternative.



I'm happy to see Edwin Encarnacion play up to his perceived abilities such as last night and great to see when he takes off his "stone face" and smiles. The media loves this flashy smile stuff from Brandon Phillips so perhaps an emulation from EE, in that regard, may help his persona in Cincinnati.


He is who he is. He's not a real outgoing person. Asking EE to become a glad handing hail-fellow-well-met guy is like asking Sean Casey to become sullen and withdrawn.

Highlifeman21
08-30-2008, 08:12 PM
Soon enough guys like Bruce and Phillips will be the focal points for such things.

If Bruce keeps making outs via strike 3, then he will be the sole focal point, and he'll be the next Red on his way outta town.

The torches haven't been put out from Dunn, and the pitchforks are still sharpened.

puca
08-30-2008, 08:13 PM
I know people don't want to hear it, but he is still only 25.

I guessing the Pirates have learned that lesson.

As long as the Reds don't have anyone ready to push him out of the way, he is not too expensive and no team is willing to pay for his potential then stop worrying about EE. There are much bigger fish to fry. If the biggest problem the Reds face in 2009 is Edwin Encarnacion, then I like their chances.

SMcGavin
08-30-2008, 08:37 PM
EE/Dickerson/Bruce is an OF I could easily support for 2009.


Me too, I think that unit has the potential to be above average both offensively and defensively.

Highlifeman21
08-30-2008, 08:42 PM
I would think Keppinger (especially if Gonzo is coming back).

If people aren't happy with EE defensively @ 3B, then they sure as heck won't be happy with Keppinger defensively @ 3B.

guttle11
08-30-2008, 08:45 PM
If people aren't happy with EE defensively @ 3B, then they sure as heck won't be happy with Keppinger defensively @ 3B.

Sure they will. Kepp won't get to enough batted balls to make errors.

I do like the EE/Dickerson/Bruce OF idea. As far as 3B goes, I'd be in favor of Gonzalez as a stop gap if he comes back. Stick Janish at short and bat him 8th everyday. Instantly better infield defense all around. If Gonzo can't come back, use Votto as bait for a young legit 3B. Sign a cheap retread to play first until Alonso is ready.

The team will be bad in the short term regardless. May as well be bad while giving the young arms every chance in the world of improving and succeeding.

Highlifeman21
08-30-2008, 08:53 PM
Sure they will. Kepp won't get to enough batted balls to make errors.

I do like the EE/Dickerson/Bruce OF idea. As far as 3B goes, I'd be in favor of Gonzalez as a stop gap if he comes back. Stick Janish at short and bat him 8th everyday. Instantly better infield defense all around. If Gonzo can't come back, use Votto as bait for a young legit 3B. Sign a cheap retread to play first until Alonso is ready.

The team will be bad in the short term regardless. May as well be bad while giving the young arms every chance in the world of improving and succeeding.

Regardless of Gonzo in 2009, I'd much rather see Janish as our everyday SS and bat him 8th.

Unfortunately I just can't get behind Keppinger as our everyday 3B, and him not getting to balls and not making errors b/c he's not getting to those balls definitely doesn't sit well with me. I'd rather stick with EE who gets to balls and makes errors, rather than Keppinger who won't get to balls.

jojo
08-30-2008, 09:15 PM
EE/Dickerson/Bruce is an OF I could easily support for 2009.

That's most likely an outfield for a team that doesn't finish in the top half of it's division.

fearofpopvol1
08-30-2008, 09:28 PM
If people aren't happy with EE defensively @ 3B, then they sure as heck won't be happy with Keppinger defensively @ 3B.

Kepp would be better (defensively) at 3B than he is at SS. He profiles better there. Unless the Reds plan on making some major acquisitions during the offseason, I don't know that a better option (in-house) exists.

Besides, it seems unlikely the Reds will contend next year anyhow...

Highlifeman21
08-31-2008, 09:52 AM
That's most likely an outfield for a team that doesn't finish in the top half of it's division.

If EE's not playing 3B, I'd hope that we could get a better 3B in there, and perhaps a legitimate SS.

But you're right, I may have put the cart before the horse on that one...

SMcGavin
08-31-2008, 10:01 AM
That's most likely an outfield for a team that doesn't finish in the top half of it's division.

How do you figure? League average offensively for those spots is:

LF .814 OPS
CF .760 OPS
RF .787 OPS

You don't think EdE-Dickerson-Bruce would be right around those numbers? And defensively it would be an above average group.

jojo
08-31-2008, 10:10 AM
How do you figure? League average offensively for those spots is:

LF .814 OPS
CF .760 OPS
RF .787 OPS

You don't think EdE-Dickerson-Bruce would be right around those numbers? And defensively it would be an above average group.

Bruce would be the only one in that group that would be a legitimate starting outfielder. Moving EE to an outfield corner would be in the right direction defensively but it puts even more pressure on his bat and it'd hard to get excited by an argument that he'd instantly be above average defensively. And, no, Dickerson is not an everyday major league outfielder.

KronoRed
08-31-2008, 01:28 PM
I would think Keppinger (especially if Gonzo is coming back).

I think this years starts have SS have given the brain trust more then enough evidence that Kepp is not an everyday player.

RedlegJake
08-31-2008, 10:39 PM
Bruce would be the only one in that group that would be a legitimate starting outfielder. Moving EE to an outfield corner would be in the right direction defensively but it puts even more pressure on his bat and it'd hard to get excited by an argument that he'd instantly be above average defensively. And, no, Dickerson is not an everyday major league outfielder.

Wrong. I'll be declarative, too. Dickerson absolutely is an everyday major league outfielder. A good, better than average center fielder.

RedlegJake
08-31-2008, 10:41 PM
Bruce would be the only one in that group that would be a legitimate starting outfielder. Moving EE to an outfield corner would be in the right direction defensively but it puts even more pressure on his bat and it'd hard to get excited by an argument that he'd instantly be above average defensively. And, no, Dickerson is not an everyday major league outfielder.

Wrong. I'll be declarative, too. Dickerson absolutely is an everyday major league outfielder. A good, better than average center fielder. I agree EE would be hard put to be above average for a corner.

fearofpopvol1
08-31-2008, 10:44 PM
I think this years starts have SS have given the brain trust more then enough evidence that Kepp is not an everyday player.

I think this is debatable. He hit quite well prior to his injury, didn't hit so well after coming back, but now that he's healthy, has hit well again. He's obviously not strong defensively at SS, but he profiles a lot better at 3B.

Patrick Bateman
08-31-2008, 10:47 PM
And, no, Dickerson is not an everyday major league outfielder.

At this point, I think that's still up for debate.

Likely though, I think he fits much better as a platoon guy. Against righties, I think he's got a shot to OPS .800 with plus defense. As the primary CF, that would be pretty solid. Just need a lefty masher to pair with that (Stubbs??), and we would be sitting pretty well there.

KronoRed
08-31-2008, 10:59 PM
I think this is debatable. He hit quite well prior to his injury, didn't hit so well after coming back, but now that he's healthy, has hit well again. He's obviously not strong defensively at SS, but he profiles a lot better at 3B.

If what he's doing lately is "well" then he's still just a bench guy, a slugging percentage barely over Corey Patterson's won't play at 3rd, he's a singles guy who can adequately play some IF, nice guy to have on the bench, not a guy I'm moving EE to the Outfield for.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6076

RedsManRick
08-31-2008, 11:08 PM
FWIW on Keppinger, last year he had a 21.3 LD% and a commensurate .335 BABIP. This year, he's got a 21.9% LD% and a .274 BABIP. His GB are up a bit and his FB down, but that should boost his batting average, if anything. His BB% is down a bit.

I'm not sure I like his bat at a corner, but he's been hitting the ball much better than his current slash stats show. Compared to our hole at C and a LF, SS is a distant third for me.

fearofpopvol1
08-31-2008, 11:13 PM
If what he's doing lately is "well" then he's still just a bench guy, a slugging percentage barely over Corey Patterson's won't play at 3rd, he's a singles guy who can adequately play some IF, nice guy to have on the bench, not a guy I'm moving EE to the Outfield for.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6076

We can agree to disagree. His defense would be better at 3rd then EdE's is now. He would not hit for much power, but he would at least carry a high batting average. I think it's a move worth considering.

Big Klu
08-31-2008, 11:16 PM
Edwin Encarnacion will either be at 3B for the Reds in 2009, or he will be traded to another club. I just don't see him in LF next year. (If I'm wrong, I will freely admit it.)

jojo
09-01-2008, 12:19 AM
Wrong. I'll be declarative, too. Dickerson absolutely is an everyday major league outfielder. A good, better than average center fielder.

It's not about being declarative.

It's about contact deficient bats that lack plus power when they do make contact getting picked on by major league pitchers.

Defensive value maxes out quicker than offensive value especially when your bat isn't good enough to allow your defensive innings to be maximized.

SMcGavin
09-01-2008, 10:40 AM
Bruce would be the only one in that group that would be a legitimate starting outfielder. Moving EE to an outfield corner would be in the right direction defensively but it puts even more pressure on his bat and it'd hard to get excited by an argument that he'd instantly be above average defensively. And, no, Dickerson is not an everyday major league outfielder.

Bruce the only one that's a legitimate starting outfielder? That's a bit dramatic. Encarnacion's bat is pretty much exactly league average for LF, even if he wasn't any good on defense he'd still be a "legitimate starting outfielder" (unless of course there are only 10-15 legitimate starting LFs in MLB). And for the record, my argument is not at all that he would instantly be above average defensively. I don't know where you got that from. I think EE would be decent out there after an offseason of preparation, as a bat/glove package I'd bet he'd be about league average in 09.

Continuing the dramatic theme, it's too early to be making any kind of declarations on Dickerson. His 2008 AAA numbers equate to a .730 OPS in the majors. If he does that, and keeps playing great defense, he's probably a touch below average as a MLB CF. He's not a guy I'm penciling into the long term plans, but with not too many good CFs available I think it would be foolish to use resources to acquire a guy who would likely be a only marginal upgrade over Dickerson.

And Bruce, I think we will see a major improvement in 2009. I'd be suprised if he wasn't above a .800 OPS next season. As a unit, EdE-Dickerson-Bruce would be above average defensively and around average offensively (with the potential to get a lot better if Bruce or EdE breaks out).

puca
09-01-2008, 11:27 AM
FWIW on Keppinger, last year he had a 21.3 LD% and a commensurate .335 BABIP. This year, he's got a 21.9% LD% and a .274 BABIP. His GB are up a bit and his FB down, but that should boost his batting average, if anything. His BB% is down a bit.

I'm not sure I like his bat at a corner, but he's been hitting the ball much better than his current slash stats show. Compared to our hole at C and a LF, SS is a distant third for me.

Offensively, I would agree. Defensively I don't think there is a bigger hole on this team than at SS. And the last thing I would sacrifice for the 2009 Reds is SS defense.

puca
09-01-2008, 11:30 AM
Bruce the only one that's a legitimate starting outfielder? That's a bit dramatic. Encarnacion's bat is pretty much exactly league average for LF, even if he wasn't any good on defense he'd still be a "legitimate starting outfielder" (unless of course there are only 10-15 legitimate starting LFs in MLB). And for the record, my argument is not at all that he would instantly be above average defensively. I don't know where you got that from. I think EE would be decent out there after an offseason of preparation, as a bat/glove package I'd bet he'd be about league average in 09.

Continuing the dramatic theme, it's too early to be making any kind of declarations on Dickerson. His 2008 AAA numbers equate to a .730 OPS in the majors. If he does that, and keeps playing great defense, he's probably a touch below average as a MLB CF. He's not a guy I'm penciling into the long term plans, but with not too many good CFs available I think it would be foolish to use resources to acquire a guy who would likely be a only marginal upgrade over Dickerson.

And Bruce, I think we will see a major improvement in 2009. I'd be suprised if he wasn't above a .800 OPS next season. As a unit, EdE-Dickerson-Bruce would be above average defensively and around average offensively (with the potential to get a lot better if Bruce or EdE breaks out).

Problem is that an average offensive outfield combined with an average offensive 1b and 2b would not be able to carry a below average offense from 3b, SS and C.

jojo
09-01-2008, 11:44 AM
Bruce the only one that's a legitimate starting outfielder? That's a bit dramatic. Encarnacion's bat is pretty much exactly league average for LF, even if he wasn't any good on defense he'd still be a "legitimate starting outfielder" (unless of course there are only 10-15 legitimate starting LFs in MLB). And for the record, my argument is not at all that he would instantly be above average defensively. I don't know where you got that from. I think EE would be decent out there after an offseason of preparation, as a bat/glove package I'd bet he'd be about league average in 09.

Continuing the dramatic theme, it's too early to be making any kind of declarations on Dickerson. His 2008 AAA numbers equate to a .730 OPS in the majors. If he does that, and keeps playing great defense, he's probably a touch below average as a MLB CF. He's not a guy I'm penciling into the long term plans, but with not too many good CFs available I think it would be foolish to use resources to acquire a guy who would likely be a only marginal upgrade over Dickerson.

And Bruce, I think we will see a major improvement in 2009. I'd be suprised if he wasn't above a .800 OPS next season. As a unit, EdE-Dickerson-Bruce would be above average defensively and around average offensively (with the potential to get a lot better if Bruce or EdE breaks out).

There was no drama in my argument.

SMcGavin
09-01-2008, 02:11 PM
Problem is that an average offensive outfield combined with an average offensive 1b and 2b would not be able to carry a below average offense from 3b, SS and C.

Oh I agree, I don't think this team is going to be good offensively next year without some major offseason pickups. I just don't think that outfield would really be part of the problem.

AmarilloRed
09-01-2008, 02:26 PM
Edwin has no experience playing the outfield, so a shift there may not be an upgrade defensively. He also does not seem to have improved defensively noticeably the last couple of years, but I am willing to give him time to improve defensively. He has improved as a power hitter, but I fear he has done so at the expense of plate discipline. Let us see how he does in September.

jojo
09-01-2008, 09:27 PM
Bruce the only one that's a legitimate starting outfielder? That's a bit dramatic. Encarnacion's bat is pretty much exactly league average for LF, even if he wasn't any good on defense he'd still be a "legitimate starting outfielder" (unless of course there are only 10-15 legitimate starting LFs in MLB). And for the record, my argument is not at all that he would instantly be above average defensively. I don't know where you got that from. I think EE would be decent out there after an offseason of preparation, as a bat/glove package I'd bet he'd be about league average in 09.

Continuing the dramatic theme, it's too early to be making any kind of declarations on Dickerson. His 2008 AAA numbers equate to a .730 OPS in the majors. If he does that, and keeps playing great defense, he's probably a touch below average as a MLB CF. He's not a guy I'm penciling into the long term plans, but with not too many good CFs available I think it would be foolish to use resources to acquire a guy who would likely be a only marginal upgrade over Dickerson.

And Bruce, I think we will see a major improvement in 2009. I'd be suprised if he wasn't above a .800 OPS next season. As a unit, EdE-Dickerson-Bruce would be above average defensively and around average offensively (with the potential to get a lot better if Bruce or EdE breaks out).

You're banking on one of the worst defensive 3b in the majors being instantly a neutral defender when playing out of position (there is more to playing outfield than having decent range at third). You're also arguing that a 26 yo's offensive performance during his second tour of AAA means he'll at least be average offensively for his position in the majors even though his offensive skill set is ripe for being exploited by major league pitchers.

Once again it's not being dramatic to argue that not only isn't that a recipe for an above average outfield-it's not even a good recipe.

RedsManRick
09-01-2008, 10:11 PM
You're banking on one of the worst defensive 3b in the majors being instantly a neutral defender when playing out of position (there is more to playing outfield than having decent range at third). You're also arguing that a 26 yo's offensive performance during his second tour of AAA means he'll at least be average offensively for his position in the majors even though his offensive skill set is ripe for being exploited by major league pitchers.

Once again it's not being dramatic to argue that not only isn't that a recipe for an above average outfield-it's not even a good recipe.

EE's problems are almost entirely throwing. While I agree we can't assume he's going to be above average or better, it's reasonable to suggest that the impact of his throwing problems will be mostly mitigated and that he is athletic enough to handle the OF well after learning the position. How well he actually takes to it is another question entirely.

Ryan Braun was a horrific 3B who after a year is a plus LF. It's not an unreasonable idea.

jojo
09-01-2008, 10:39 PM
EE's problems are almost entirely throwing. While I agree we can't assume he's going to be above average or better, it's reasonable to suggest that the impact of his throwing problems will be mostly mitigated and that he is athletic enough to handle the OF well after learning the position. How well he actually takes to it is another question entirely.

Ryan Braun was a horrific 3B who after a year is a plus LF. It's not an unreasonable idea.

I've already suggested moving EE to left is in the right direction. That's a different thing than penciling him in as at least a neutral defender there as part of a larger argument that the outfield will be an above average one in '09. If you buy into Dewan's system, EE is dinged to his left, to his right, by balls straight on and with bunts-it's a little more than he just can't throw straight.

Braun was converted from shortstop just prior to being drafted. He's more athletic and certainly less sulky about a challenge for those who give credence to make up.

SMcGavin
09-01-2008, 11:59 PM
You're banking on one of the worst defensive 3b in the majors being instantly a neutral defender when playing out of position (there is more to playing outfield than having decent range at third). You're also arguing that a 26 yo's offensive performance during his second tour of AAA means he'll at least be average offensively for his position in the majors even though his offensive skill set is ripe for being exploited by major league pitchers.

Once again it's not being dramatic to argue that not only isn't that a recipe for an above average outfield-it's not even a good recipe.

Again, you knock down that strawman. Please quote the post where I said Dickerson was going to be "at least average offensively". Good grief. You argue against using Dickerson's 2008 numbers to project his value next year - what should we be using, his stats from age 23?

You've also yet to really address my main point. You keep harping on EE's defense - do you think he's gonna be so bad as a left fielder that he'll completely overwhelm the positive contributions of Dickerson and Bruce, making them a below average defensive outfield?

As for offense: again, I'll post the league average OPS for NL outfielders:
LF .813
CF .759
RF .787

Off the top of my head here's what I'd guess for the three players in question in 2009:
Encarnacion .830
Dickerson .725
Bruce .815

If you want to continue this debate I invite you to answer my question about the outfield defense as a unit, and make the same projections for those three players. Otherwise it is really not enjoyable to answer your arguments against points that I never made in the first place.

RedsManRick
09-02-2008, 12:03 AM
With no consideration of what he did in AAA or MLB this year, PECOTA had him down for .241/.321/.409, a .720 OPS at the major league level in 2008. Given his above average defense, that's a starting CF in the majors.

mth123
09-02-2008, 03:23 AM
With no consideration of what he did in AAA or MLB this year, PECOTA had him down for .241/.321/.409, a .720 OPS at the major league level in 2008. Given his above average defense, that's a starting CF in the majors.

That's actually a .730 OPS but the point is well taken. This is a kid who has learned a few things as he moved up the ladder and will probably be limited to facing RH pitching most of the time. Given those parameters, I'm guessing that .730 will be a minimum for him and .750ish+ is more likely. The Reds have a number of guys to play against the lefties with the team being on the hook for Freel in '09 and guys like Stubbs and Heisey coming along by the time Freel is gone. Dickerson, Stubbs and Heisey are all plus defenders and Freel can hold his own out there until he kills himself running into a wall at some point.

IMO CF won't be a huge strength for this team in 2009 and beyond, but it certainly won't be the glaring weakness that its been for the last 6 years or so. Time to finally be satisfied with the on hand options out there since the first time that Griffey pulled up lame and turn the attention to true problems. There are many of those to worry about like C, SS, rotation depth, a late inning lefty and making the pieces that seem to be strengths (Votto, EdE, eventually Alonso, Soto and Frazier) fit into the three corner spots offensively and defensively without having to suffer the defensive attrocities that EdE and Votto have been in 2008.

As for EdE. I'd give him one more year to work out his issues at 3B or deal him in the offseason to fill other holes. I'm not real satisfied with the alternatives for 3B that are on hand at this point (probably Keppinger and Rosales) until Soto or Frazier arrive, so another year of EdE buys some development time. With the kids on the way I don't see the team commiting to a long term deal to upgrade the spot, so unless the team is willing to take the final year of a bad contract for a guy like say Melvin Mora to bridge the gap, EdE is probably the best 3B option for 2009.

IMO, the long term 1B job on this team has already been willed to Alonso and LF would be a better defensive spot for Votto than 1B anyway. Votto's defensive issues consist entirely of his lack of "picking it" skills at 1B and that is the one requirement that the so called "easiest position on the defensive spectrum" can't compromise on without bringing down the entire IF defense as a unit. A defensive challenged player has less chance to do damage in LF than at 1B if making the tough catch is the source of his problems. LF is considered "harder" due primarily to the range and relative athleticism required to cover a little ground out there. Ability to throw is slightly more important in LF but not much. Votto is young and athletic enough that his range shouldn't be an issue if he can learn to read a fly ball off the bat (not a given) which is one skill that actually can be learned with some reps out there. The other main reason that 1B is considered "easier" is to save the legs of an aging player. This is not an issue with Votto for the next 10 years or so. If he can make the switch, Votto is the guy for LF IMO. He has the bat to carry the spot, the youth to handle the physical requirements and moving him off of 1B improves the IF defense quite a bit and more than offsets whatever drag his defense in LF may be due to the relative importance of the positions. Votto would have to be a Griffeyesque disaster out there for his defense in LF to be a net negative given the improvement we'll probably see in the IF by moving him off of 1B.

jojo
09-02-2008, 07:34 AM
Again, you knock down that strawman. Please quote the post where I said Dickerson was going to be "at least average offensively". Good grief. You argue against using Dickerson's 2008 numbers to project his value next year - what should we be using, his stats from age 23?

You've also yet to really address my main point. You keep harping on EE's defense - do you think he's gonna be so bad as a left fielder that he'll completely overwhelm the positive contributions of Dickerson and Bruce, making them a below average defensive outfield?

As for offense: again, I'll post the league average OPS for NL outfielders:
LF .813
CF .759
RF .787

Off the top of my head here's what I'd guess for the three players in question in 2009:
Encarnacion .830
Dickerson .725
Bruce .815

If you want to continue this debate I invite you to answer my question about the outfield defense as a unit, and make the same projections for those three players. Otherwise it is really not enjoyable to answer your arguments against points that I never made in the first place.

Stop with the straw man accusations.

There is no doubt that Dickerson can play defense-never said he couldn't. The question was can he log enough innings to be worth what you're arguing he'll be. Dickerson is a cheaper Corey Patterson without the offensive upside. He's a fourth outfielder.

Sure the defense will be better (and God knows I preached about the Reds defense). Bruce will likely be Bruce.

But, once again, here was the original point:


That's most likely an outfield for a team that doesn't finish in the top half of it's division.

It's a simple point. You think that hypothetical outfield would be an above average one. I've argued that LF and CF would be compromises-a longstanding Reds tradition concerning roster formation (i.e. cross your fingers and hope it stops the leak).

And this so that they can likely compromise at third......

In the meantime, the Reds still must stare at Chicago and Milwaukee this off season when setting their bar.

Heath
09-02-2008, 08:03 AM
I think that if EdE hustled and talked like Pete, the fans' would love him.

I personally root for the kid to do well. He's arguably my favorite current Red.

jojo
09-02-2008, 08:31 AM
I think that if EdE hustled and talked like Pete, the fans' would love him.

I personally root for the kid to do well. He's arguably my favorite current Red.

I think Dusty should simply write EE into the lineup (at third) and forget about him until someone forces the issue.

Chip R
09-02-2008, 08:58 AM
I think Dusty should simply write EE into the lineup (at third) and forget about him until someone forces the issue.


Hasn't he pretty much done that?

jojo
09-02-2008, 09:05 AM
Hasn't he pretty much done that?

Yep. I was referring to the argument to stick him in left.

Roy Tucker
09-02-2008, 09:39 AM
I think EE shows enough now to stay at 3B. He's got room for improvement, but also does some things pretty well. His OBP and OPS are in the middle of the NL 3B pack.

It seems like he's been on the Reds' prospect radar for forever, but I think people forget he's only 25. His focus and approach at the plate needs some tightening. I like his range at 3B but not so much his throwing (which has gotten better). These are things that can be improved by small increments.

I think with continued experience and seasoning, he'll improve some. Not quite David Wright or Chipper, but OK. Once he starts making the bigger bucks, this will all need to be evaluated. But I'd sure as heck keep him at 3B for 2009.

lollipopcurve
09-02-2008, 10:06 AM
I think EE shows enough now to stay at 3B. He's got room for improvement, but also does some things pretty well. His OBP and OPS are in the middle of the NL 3B pack.

It seems like he's been on the Reds' prospect radar for forever, but I think people forget he's only 25. His focus and approach at the plate needs some tightening. I like his range at 3B but not so much his throwing (which has gotten better). These are things that can be improved by small increments.

I think with continued experience and seasoning, he'll improve some. Not quite David Wright or Chipper, but OK. Once he starts making the bigger bucks, this will all need to be evaluated. But I'd sure as heck keep him at 3B for 2009.

Yep. He hasn't shown enough to get a LTC, and there are options rising in the minors. Pretty simple call -- unless someone comes calling in the trade market who's willing to part with legitimate talent for him. In which case, would you move him and install someone like Keppinger or Rosales until a better prospect is ready?

Roy Tucker
09-02-2008, 10:20 AM
Yep. He hasn't shown enough to get a LTC, and there are options rising in the minors. Pretty simple call -- unless someone comes calling in the trade market who's willing to part with legitimate talent for him. In which case, would you move him and install someone like Keppinger or Rosales until a better prospect is ready?

Never say never, but I wouldn't move him. Otherwise, you're just creating a another problem for the Reds where there wasn't one before.

I think this is a fairly heretical statement, but Jeff Keppinger just isn't a very good player. He gave the club a nice boost in late 2007, but I think he's been exposed as a player this year. Makes some contact but doesn't walk enough, his power has gone south, and has the range of a tree stump. Sure, injuries may be a factor, but I don't hand the 3B job to him and consider the position well-covered, particularly with his lack of power. And who knows what Rosales can do?

TRF
09-02-2008, 11:36 AM
There is no doubt that Dickerson can play defense-never said he couldn't. The question was can he log enough innings to be worth what you're arguing he'll be. Dickerson is a cheaper Corey Patterson without the offensive upside. He's a fourth outfielder.

Corey Patterson has offensive upside? I just threw up in my mouth.

RedsManRick
09-02-2008, 01:47 PM
When CPat shows an IsoD of .100+ we can talk about his offensive upside. Dickerson will have contact issues, but at least he can take a walk.

IslandRed
09-02-2008, 02:35 PM
Back to Encarnacion for a minute... I've said my piece before, I don't think he's ever going to be more than what he is defensively and that isn't good. But it comes down to Jocketty's objectives. If he's trying to put the best possible team on the field for 2009 with the resources available, a good case can be made for leaving Encarnacion where he is, bad defense and all, and dealing with the positions that are in worse shape.

But if Walt's going for the total team makeover with an eye for the long term and giving more than a wink and a nod to defense, "new third baseman" needs to be on the to-do list, in my opinion. That doesn't necessarily make Encarnacion an ex-Red. But it could.

puca
09-02-2008, 04:17 PM
Back to Encarnacion for a minute... I've said my piece before, I don't think he's ever going to be more than what he is defensively and that isn't good. But it comes down to Jocketty's objectives. If he's trying to put the best possible team on the field for 2009 with the resources available, a good case can be made for leaving Encarnacion where he is, bad defense and all, and dealing with the positions that are in worse shape.

But if Walt's going for the total team makeover with an eye for the long term and giving more than a wink and a nod to defense, "new third baseman" needs to be on the to-do list, in my opinion. That doesn't necessarily make Encarnacion an ex-Red. But it could.

There is a very good chance the long term solution at 3b is in the Reds minor league system already. The same can't be said for SS or catcher.

If Walt can use EE in a trade to fix the SS or catching hole or add a promising arm to the rotation mix then by all means he should. Otherwise, just ride out the remaining (relatively) cheap years.

fearofpopvol1
09-03-2008, 09:48 AM
When CPat shows an IsoD of .100+ we can talk about his offensive upside. Dickerson will have contact issues, but at least he can take a walk.

Agreed. I feel 1000X more comfortable with Dickerson

flyer85
09-03-2008, 10:10 AM
because almost every metric says he is the worst defensive 3B in baseball. If you are going to play a defensive position that poorly you had better rake in comparison to your counterparts ... and EE does not do that.

BTW, I don't think moving guys to other positions at which they profile to be average or below offensively will solve anything.

TRF
09-03-2008, 01:05 PM
EE's OPS by month:

April .945
May .475 (abysmal)
June 1.025
July .987
August .744

There is little to no excuse for May. Horrible slump. August can be explained a little by the fact that he had no protection in the lineup. Not much of an excuse. He started the month awful, but finished very strong.

He seems to "rake" just fine to me.

dougdirt
09-03-2008, 01:23 PM
BTW, I don't think moving guys to other positions at which they profile to be average or below offensively will solve anything.

Going from the worst defender at a position you hit slightly above average for to a position you are middle of the road defensively and hit average at, is an upgrade of overall value.

flyer85
09-03-2008, 01:48 PM
Going from the worst defender at a position you hit slightly above average for to a position you are middle of the road defensively and hit average at, is an upgrade of overall value.there is no evidence to what kind of a defender EE would be in LF and assuming average is a guess. EE is an average runner at best and seeing as he has never played OF I would guess it is more likley he would be below average in LF.

Might be a good move for EE but really doesn't resolve anything for the Reds because there is no one ready to step in and be an above average player at 3b.

jojo
09-03-2008, 01:55 PM
Going from the worst defender at a position you hit slightly above average for to a position you are middle of the road defensively and hit average at, is an upgrade of overall value.

But as solutions go you need context.

Who plays third when EE goes to left and CD gets converted from 4th outfielder to play center?

It's a lot of motion but not a lot of ocean when the magnitude of the upgrade is considered and IMHO, the magnitude of theoretical upgrade is very debatable. I'm not sure how the off season will effect their enemies, but I'd guess (and this is of course "thumb in the air" because of all of the unknowns) the Reds need to improve themselves by at least 12 to 15 wins talent-wise next season to reasonably expect they can avoid dollar hot dog days.

flyer85
09-03-2008, 01:57 PM
but I'd guess the Reds need to improve themselves by at least 12 to 15 wins talent-wise next season to reasonably expect they can avoid dollar hot dog days.which is huge when you consider there is little in the way of an internal talent infusion standing by to help out.

Will M
09-03-2008, 02:52 PM
Back to Encarnacion for a minute... I've said my piece before, I don't think he's ever going to be more than what he is defensively and that isn't good. But it comes down to Jocketty's objectives. If he's trying to put the best possible team on the field for 2009 with the resources available, a good case can be made for leaving Encarnacion where he is, bad defense and all, and dealing with the positions that are in worse shape.

But if Walt's going for the total team makeover with an eye for the long term and giving more than a wink and a nod to defense, "new third baseman" needs to be on the to-do list, in my opinion. That doesn't necessarily make Encarnacion an ex-Red. But it could.

well said.

dougdirt
09-03-2008, 03:03 PM
which is huge when you consider there is little in the way of an internal talent infusion standing by to help out.

I am not so sure about that. You get a few bats getting closer to prime age with Votto/Encarnacion and Bruce should be expected to put up better numbers next year (to what extent is up in the air, but I think everyone expects better numbers next year). Then you have the starters between Harang and Arroyo who have pitched well below what should be expected of them next year (so long as both are healthy, which it appears they are now) and I expect Cueto to be a little better next year. So I think there are certainly options next year that are going to help make up some of that win total.

We still need to add to it all of course. We have issues with 3B, SS, LF, C and potentially CF to deal with. I think the rotation and the bullpen will be fairly good next year though, injuries not accounted for if there are any.

flyer85
09-03-2008, 03:15 PM
I am not so sure about that. You get a few bats getting closer to prime age with Votto/Encarnacion and Bruce should be expected to put up better numbers next year (to what extent is up in the air, but I think everyone expects better numbers next year). Then you have the starters between Harang and Arroyo who have pitched well below what should be expected of them next year (so long as both are healthy, which it appears they are now) and I expect Cueto to be a little better next year. So I think there are certainly options next year that are going to help make up some of that win total.
most players should be better and no one should be better and I guess no one should get worse. Sounds like a winner. :thumbup:

Will M
09-03-2008, 03:39 PM
I am not so sure about that. You get a few bats getting closer to prime age with Votto/Encarnacion and Bruce should be expected to put up better numbers next year (to what extent is up in the air, but I think everyone expects better numbers next year). Then you have the starters between Harang and Arroyo who have pitched well below what should be expected of them next year (so long as both are healthy, which it appears they are now) and I expect Cueto to be a little better next year. So I think there are certainly options next year that are going to help make up some of that win total.

We still need to add to it all of course. We have issues with 3B, SS, LF, C and potentially CF to deal with. I think the rotation and the bullpen will be fairly good next year though, injuries not accounted for if there are any.

1. Other than Volquez I expect a lot of the current team to improve on their 2008 performance. Cueto has worlds of promise. Hopefully the old Harang shows up and Arroyo avoids his truly awful starts. Votto & Bruce should put up better numbers. Anyone >> Bako & anyone >> Patterson.
I don't expect a playoff team in 2009 ( unless Walt breaks the bank on guys like Tex & CC ) but I do expect improvement. Possibly a BIG improvement.

2. IMO CF is covered with Dickerson/Freel and Stubbs in AAA.

3. I think SS is the big hole the Reds need to fill. Kep & Gonzo don't cut it. From what I have read Valaika seems more a 2B.

4. Moving Votto to LF in anticipation of Alonso's arrival in 2010 seems like a plan. A stopgap LH hitting firstbaseman to platoon in 2009 with Kep or Rosales shouldn't be too hard to find.

5. I like what I have seen from Hanigan but the guy is 27 years old. I suspect Walt will look for a cheap vet as insurance. Maybe a guy signed to a minor league deal. Tatum plays in AAA in 2009.

6. EE is an enigma. He would be a big asset to the Reds if he could just be an average defensive third baseman. I suspect the Reds keep him at 3rd for 2009. However if someone came calling and offered a quality SS I'd deal EE.

7. I suspect the Reds won't be going for it in 2009. That means no CC, Sheets, Lowe, Burnett, or Dempster. Our 2009 fifth starter will likely be Owings, Maloney, Ramirez or Thompson.

Walts offseason to do list:
1. find a SS!!!
1A. decide what to do with EE. is he going to improve defensively or do we need to move him and find someone else for 3B?
3. look for a LH hitting stopgap at 1B until Alonso is ready
4. look for a catcher better than Hanigan/tatum or at least some vet for insurance
5. decide who in the minors is a keeper and who can go in a trade

dougdirt
09-03-2008, 04:32 PM
3. look for a LH hitting stopgap at 1B until Alonso is ready


What are you going to do with Votto?

BRM
09-03-2008, 04:34 PM
What are you going to do with Votto?

He's moved him to LF.

dougdirt
09-03-2008, 05:04 PM
He's moved him to LF.

Man, I really need to read closer.

BRM
09-03-2008, 05:07 PM
Man, I really need to read closer.

What do you think of that idea, Doug? Could Votto really handle a move to LF? I know he played some LF in Louisville but the reports on his defense there weren't all that good.