Greg Simms: Reds Won't Look The Same Next Year

[Spring~Fields]

Reds won't look the same next year, thank goodness

By Greg Simms

Staff Writer

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Soon you will hardly know the Cincinnati Reds. I say this for two reasons. One, because I looked at the starter at each position and realized that not one is untouchable, and most will be dealt in one way or another.

Then I looked at General Manager Walt Jocketty's history. He was hired as GM of the St. Louis Cardinals in October 1994. The team was sold the next year but Jocketty stayed, brought in Tony La Russa and the Cards won six National League Central titles, two NL titles and a World Series.

Let's go over the Reds:

Catcher: Championships are built up the middle, starting here. There's nobody special, so expect a new face.

First base: Joey Votto. He has slugger potential, but he's no defensive whiz. He could play left field, where he would be slow. I can see postage on his forehead.

Second base: Brandon Phillips. The team's best player, but he could be dealt for help elsewhere.

Third base: Edwin Encarnacion. A GM's nightmare. All the talent is there, but he's erratic and he's 25. Could become a star somewhere else.

Shortstop: Jeff Keppinger has limited range. Say goodbye, Jeff.

Outfield: Load 'em up and ship 'em out. Fan favorite Jay Bruce might hold down right field, but he's slow.

Pitching: Rotation looks good. Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo. Bullpen needs rebuilding. Don't worry. Jocketty and staff know where the talent is.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/08/30/ddn083008spaudible.html

[NJReds]

This reporter obviously slapped this waste of a story together between bites of a sandwich while watching 90210 reruns. There isn't much thought put into it and a post like on SunDeck wouldn't garner the poster consideration for ORG.

[redsmetz]

This reporter obviously slapped this waste of a story together between bites of a sandwich while watching 90210 reruns. There isn't much thought put into it and a post like on SunDeck wouldn't garner the poster consideration for ORG.

That's what I thought too. The fact that any, and most all of, our everyday players could be moved falls in to the "Masters of the Obvious (obvioius, obvious)" category. And the analysis seems a good bit slipshod.

[RedEye]

I think I just got dumber from reading this article.

[PuffyPig]

Bruce "might" be back??? That's nice to know.

If I read this article on this board and it was written my a new poster, we would assume it was by some 12 year old who had never watched the Reds play. To see it was written by a professional writer, well that is mind blowing.

[Joseph]

Anyone could be dealt [re:Phillips] but thats applicable during ANY off season.

[camisadelgolf]

I stopped reading after:
Second base: Brandon Phillips. The team's best player, but he could be dealt for help elsewhere.

I'm expecting changes but nothing nearly as extreme as Simms paints it. Oh, and Phillips is better than Volquez, Harang, Cordero, Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion, etc.? Sure, maybe he's better than a few of those guys, but the best player on the team? Come on.

[Spring~Fields]

I stopped reading after:



:lol:

You got farther than I did, I started wondering who the H the guy was early on.

Doc Rogers had just three keepers last night on WLW, Votto, Phillips and Encarncion, he excluded pitching for his exercise. He had Phillips as the best player also and a five tooler at that, one of his criteria was that Phillips, Encarncion and Votto could hit left handed pitching, but he omitted Phillips and Encarncion's efforts against right handed pitching in his discussion.

[RedEye]

:lol:

You got farther than I did, I started wondering who the H the guy was early on.

Doc Rogers had just three keepers last night on WLW, Votto, Phillips and Encarncion, he excluded pitching for his exercise. He had Phillips as the best player also and a five tooler at that, one of his criteria was that Phillips, Encarncion and Votto could hit left handed pitching, but he omitted Phillips and Encarncion's efforts against right handed pitching in his discussion.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding his criteria... but why the h would Bruce not be a keeper? Didn't Jocketty himself list off Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion, Cueto and Volquez as "untouchables"?

[Wheelhouse]

I bet there are Skyline chili stains on the original of this article--Bruce slow? He's obviously never watched him play. Bullpen needs rebuilding? News to me--they're #3 in the NL. Poor, ill-informed article.

[Spring~Fields]

Maybe I'm misunderstanding his criteria... but why the h would Bruce not be a keeper? Didn't Jocketty himself list off Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion, Cueto and Volquez as "untouchables"?

Doc Rogers premised it in a scenario "if you could choose only three position players as keepers", only three, he also added some input as if the callers were to approach it as an expansion situation, looking forward to 2011 I think was his year. Bruce he mentioned as young and also referenced him as a possible trading chip, and also thought that Dickerson was a risk yet, as one that has had a short look, which could be true.

[corkedbat]

I thinik there will be a considerable restructuring over the winter. I have a feeling that Jocketty will mold the roster to put his stamp on it and it won't be delicate surgery. No one will be above dealing for the right return, but the key is filling a hole without creating another.

The Reds need to make judicious use of the limited free agent market. If they can land one of several solid available starters - fine - it can upgrade the staff and possibly free up Arroyo to be dealt and fill a hole elsewhere.

The crop of FA position players is pretty meager, but if they can find one or two guys to strengthen the bench or be a stopgap regular and free someone for a trade without a cost in talent to acquire, it should be done,

The main key though will be the trade market. They need deals where they can get two regukars for one or three for two and they need to fill out deals wisely with minor leaguers.

I think the top priority this offseason and the place I would be most willing to over-spend would be the coaching staff. I have no doubt that Dusty will return, but if I'm Jocketty, I use every resource in my years of experience to identify and land the best available hitting and pitching coaches.

I'm talking about fundamentally-sound gurus who instill their systems fron the top to the bottom of the organization and possibly even installing their disciples at all levels of the Reds farm system.

[RedEye]

Doc Rogers premised it in a scenario "if you could choose only three position players as keepers", only three, he also added some input as if the callers were to approach it as an expansion situation, looking forward to 2011 I think was his year. Bruce he mentioned as young and also referenced him as a possible trading chip, and also thought that Dickerson was a risk yet, as one that has had a short look, which could be true.

Well then I respectfully disagree with his assessment. The Reds would be CRAZY to trade Bruce now. The only thing crazier would be to trade Cueto or Volquez... and that might not even be crazier.

[fearofpopvol1]

I stopped reading after:

I'm expecting changes but nothing nearly as extreme as Simms paints it. Oh, and Phillips is better than Volquez, Harang, Cordero, Bruce, Votto, Encarnacion, etc.? Sure, maybe he's better than a few of those guys, but the best player on the team? Come on.

I think someone showed that this is actually true, that Phillips has more overall value (when you consider everything he brings to the table) than any other player on the Reds.

However, the article still sucks and has a lot of bad information in it.

[OnBaseMachine]

What a dumb, dumb article. Bruce might be back? And he's too slow to play the outfield? Hilarious.

[HokieRed]

Was it crazy to have traded Josh Hamilton last year?

[RedEye]

Was it crazy to have traded Josh Hamilton last year?

No.

[Spring~Fields]

I thinik there will be a considerable restructuring over the winter. I have a feeling that Jocketty will mold the roster to put his stamp on it and it won't be delicate surgery. No one will be above dealing for the right return, but the key is filling a hole without creating another.

The Reds need to make judicious use of the limited free agent market. If they can land one of several solid available starters - fine - it can upgrade the staff and possibly free up Arroyo to be dealt and fill a hole elsewhere.

The crop of FA position players is pretty meager, but if they can find one or two guys to strengthen the bench or be a stopgap regular and free someone for a trade without a cost in talent to acquire, it should be done,

The main key though will be the trade market. They need deals where they can get two regukars for one or three for two and they need to fill out deals wisely with minor leaguers.

I think the top priority this offseason and the place I would be most willing to over-spend would be the coaching staff. I have no doubt that Dusty will return, but if I'm Jocketty, I use every resource in my years of experience to identify and land the best available hitting and pitching coaches.

I'm talking about fundamentally-sound gurus who instill their systems fron the top to the bottom of the organization and possibly even installing their disciples at all levels of the Reds farm system.

Good points and good post, much better than the writer of the original article.

I struggle though with a vision of how WJ will be able to make ground trading. I just have a hard time seeing other teams giving much in return. I have it in my head that WJ will work on pitching and defense additionally to what he has to date.

[corkedbat]

Well then I respectfully disagree with his assessment. The Reds would be CRAZY to trade Bruce now. The only thing crazier would be to trade Cueto or Volquez... and that might not even be crazier.


I agree. Unkess someone is willing to value Vruce as the did lasy summer (and pay accordingly in talent), I'd be more inclined to strt him in AAA and make him earn his way back than deal him. It would be a classic example of selling low

While his performance the last couple of months has scaled-back most people hopes expectations that he was the savior, I think he's quire capable of adjusting and vecoming a solid major league RF. If the deal him now out of panic, I don't see a very satisfactory return.

[OnBaseMachine]

Was it crazy to have traded Josh Hamilton last year?

No. It was brilliant.

[HokieRed]

Arguably trading Hamilton was brilliant and so might trading Jay Bruce for the right return.

[Degenerate39]

The bullpen is fine. Bruce isn't slow. This writer has never seen the Reds.

[Spring~Fields]

Well then I respectfully disagree with his assessment. The Reds would be CRAZY to trade Bruce now. The only thing crazier would be to trade Cueto or Volquez... and that might not even be crazier.

I agree, he is young and presently learning and struggling like most do at first while or when learning at a higher level. Another team would want him cheap and just send him to AAA or work with him at a slower pace until he puts it together.

I do think that with Jocketty, if a trade makes sense, that he would trade any player, naturally, if it really helped the club in his plan.

[Spring~Fields]

Arguably trading Hamilton was brilliant and so might trading Jay Bruce for the right return.

Are Bruce and Hamilton comparable, before the Hamilton trade?

[OnBaseMachine]

Arguably trading Hamilton was brilliant and so might trading Jay Bruce for the right return.

Jay Bruce is nearly untouchable in my eyes. The Reds need offense and Bruce will be a big part of that for a long time.

[OnBaseMachine]

Are Bruce and Hamilton comparable, before the Hamilton trade?

I'd still take Bruce over Hamilton. Bruce has the same talent and is six years younger, plus he doesn't have the drug past that Hamilton does. I'm very confident Bruce will put up the same numbers Hamilton is within a couple years or so.

[Spring~Fields]

I'd still take Bruce over Hamilton. Bruce has the same talent and is six years younger, plus he doesn't have the drug past that Hamilton does. I'm very confident Bruce will put up the same numbers Hamilton is within a couple years or so.

Plus Hamilton is surrounded by good hitters this year too, that helps!!!

I look forward to Bruce doing well also. I wish he would have been treated more like the traditional rookie this year though, I mean playing one position, and batting down in the order etc. I hope that no one tinkered with his hitting approach, but, I don’t know, Bruce certainly could out hit Dickerson before, odd how that changed in the short-time.

[RedEye]

Arguably trading Hamilton was brilliant and so might trading Jay Bruce for the right return.

The return would have to be a 21 year-old, top of the rotation starter. Otherwise, trading Bruce now is INSANE.

[RedEye]

Plus Hamilton is surrounded by good hitters this year too, that helps!!!

I look forward to Bruce doing well also. I wish he would have been treated more like the traditional rookie this year though, I mean playing one position, and batting down in the order etc. I hope that no one tinkered with his hitting approach, but, I don’t know, Bruce certainly could out hit Dickerson before, odd how that changed in the short-time.

Dickerson hasn't been in the ML long enough to know what he can really do. I'm confident his numbers will regress as the next month progresses.

[corkedbat]

Good points and good post, much better than the writer of the original article.

I struggle though with a vision of how WJ will be able to make ground trading. I just have a hard time seeing other teams giving much in return. I have it in my head that WJ will work on pitching and defense additionally to what he has to date.

That's a valid pointand I didn't say WJ's job would be easy or even likely. :D

I think the key though to improving the big club is finding tradinf partners rgar are willing to offer up multiple premium talents for guys like Phillips, Arroyo, Encarbacion, Votto, Cordero, etc or really likes some of our farmhands or both. Also, any possible free agent deals or feals where you get major leaguer(s) for minor leaguer(s) - without depleting your major league talent-base - will be crucial.

I'm not mentioning any one player vecause I don't like them or I'm in a hurry ro deal them - I'm fine with aby of them on the roster -but to improve this club significantly it is going to take a combination of pain, ingenuity and a series of trades with inter-connected purposes.

I love Brandon Phillips, but if I can include him in a deal for a stud young OF bat and a solid young majors-ready SS or C - I do it and let Kepp/Haiston/Valaika/Richar etc. compete at 2B. (as long as Gonzalez is ready or a slock young SS is acquired).

The key though are deals that fill more holes than they create. There might be some on out there that might give up something useful for Cieto straightup for example, but then you just have to turn around and fill the hole he leaves in the rotation.

I did not include Bruce or Harang in the list, because in their cases I believe injury/performance means you wouldn't get a worthwhile return at this point.

The key to this offseason's activity is creativity and the ability to think two or three moves ahead.

[Strikes Out Looking]

You to can be a sportswriter

[westofyou]

woof woof... maybe the press is dieing?

This is a dog of an article, I'd be embarrassed to have turned this in as my completed work.

[RedEye]

The key though are deals that fill more holes than they create. There might be some on out there that might give up something useful for Cieto straightup for example, but then you just have to turn around and fill the hole he leaves in the rotation.



You'd have to get one heck of a "useful" player in return for Cueto straight up. Young pitchers with #1 starter potential don't grow on trees. In fact, almost the only type of return that would be fair would be another young pitcher with #1 potential... and then, what's the point?

[corkedbat]

You'd have to get one heck of a "useful" player in return for Cueto straight up. Young pitchers with #1 starter potential don't grow on trees. In fact, almost the only type of return that would be fair would be another young pitcher with #1 potential... and then, what's the point?

Very true. Bad example on my part - Jared Burton might be better. The point was meant to be that oe-for-one (or two-for-two deals ) aren't what is needed.

[marcshoe]

I had been thinking the last few days that I wouldn't be surprised to see Phillips traded in the offseason because of the perception that he is the Reds' best player. Assuming that WJ doesn't also hold this perception, he may see Phillips as the best trading chip the team has--a player who can bring back more value than he strictly should, a very good player, but one who may not be quite as good as his rep.

It should be obvious to those familiar with the team that trading BP wouldn't have the same negative impact on the team that trading Dunn did, but it obviously isn't obvious. Why not see if you can move him for a good return? Sell high in perception.

[RedEye]

I had been thinking the last few days that I wouldn't be surprised to see Phillips traded in the offseason because of the perception that he is the Reds' best player. Assuming that WJ doesn't also hold this perception, he may see Phillips as the best trading chip the team has--a player who can bring back more value than he strictly should, a very good player, but one who may not be quite as good as his rep.


I think you are absolutely right. Note also that WJ did not list BP as one of his "untouchables." I think if he can get two or three prospects in return, he deals Phillips, moves Kepp to 2B and relies on Sea Bass to play SS (sorry anti-Sea Bass folks, but I still love the nickname :D).

[RedEye]

Very true. Bad example on my part - Jared Burton might be better. The point was meant to be that oe-for-one (or two-for-two deals ) aren't what is needed.

I agree, and that's why I think Phillips and Arroyo should be high on WJ's list for trade talks this winter. Phillips is potentially the type of player who could land 2 and maybe 3 decent prospects in return. Arroyo is a proven innings eater, and I think he could be sold for a profit by the right salesman (let's hope Walt's the guy!)

[nate]

woof woof... maybe the press is dieing?

This is a dog of an article, I'd be embarrassed to have turned this in as my completed work.

It's so bad, I'd put a bag over my head if I delivered the paper.

[flyer85]

This reporter obviously slapped this waste of a story together between bites of a sandwich while watching 90210 reruns. Ah ... you know Greg.

[flyer85]

This is a dog of an article, I'd be embarrassed to have turned this in as my completed work.obviously you don't know Greg.

[KronoRed]

This reporter obviously slapped this waste of a story together between bites of a sandwich while watching 90210 reruns.

Can you blame him? gotta get cuaght up on all the action now that the 90210 is coming back :D

[WVRedsFan]

Poor article, but his premise is correct, I think. There will be massive changes in this team come this winter. I also think he's right in saying no one is safe as far as the 8 position players go. I think Votto and Phillips are safe in the infield, and maybe Encarnacion, but look for a new shortstop. In the outfield, I look for two acquisitions with Patterson, Hopper, and a few others saying bye-bye. A new catcher is a must.

And if WJ is offered a king's ransom for Bruce, including a fleet, good hitting outfielder and a shortstop, and two prospects, he might not be able to resist that, but I don't think that will happen.

Rookie writer??

[Spring~Fields]

obviously you don't know Greg.

Who is Greg ?

At least he kept it to one page or less or shovel load, unlike Paul Daugherty :)

[Chip R]

The man's not going to win a Pulitzer for this piece and it has a few faults. However, I like the fact that he's not overrating Keppinger and he says that EE could be a star on another team. He hasn't said anything in there about Phillips and Votto that others on ORG haven't proposed. He's not calling for Bako to come back because he "calls a good game" either. He's not saying Hariston is the Reds savior either.

He isn't proposing any solutions but he's not saying there are any sacred cows either - nor should there be.

[GAC]

I thinik there will be a considerable restructuring over the winter. I have a feeling that Jocketty will mold the roster to put his stamp on it and it won't be delicate surgery.

I hope it looks like the operating floor in a M.A.S.H. unit. ;)

And the rest of your post I thoroughly agree with. Especially the highlighted part on coaching (below).

With this offense we have a hard time getting on base. Yet when they do, these players act like they've never been there before and don't know what to do on those base paths. IMHO that points to huge failures in the farm system, not just "rookie mistakes". Who in the h is coaching these kids in the fundamentals??


No one will be above dealing for the right return, but the key is filling a hole without creating another.

The Reds need to make judicious use of the limited free agent market. If they can land one of several solid available starters - fine - it can upgrade the staff and possibly free up Arroyo to be dealt and fill a hole elsewhere.

The crop of FA position players is pretty meager, but if they can find one or two guys to strengthen the bench or be a stopgap regular and free someone for a trade without a cost in talent to acquire, it should be done,

The main key though will be the trade market. They need deals where they can get two regukars for one or three for two and they need to fill out deals wisely with minor leaguers.

I think the top priority this offseason and the place I would be most willing to over-spend would be the coaching staff. I have no doubt that Dusty will return, but if I'm Jocketty, I use every resource in my years of experience to identify and land the best available hitting and pitching coaches.

I'm talking about fundamentally-sound gurus who instill their systems fron the top to the bottom of the organization and possibly even installing their disciples at all levels of the Reds farm system.