2008 Hurricane Season

[OnBaseMachine]

Has strengthened into a strong Cat. 4 storm and is expected to strengthen into a Cat. 5 soon. Fox News now has it projected to hit west of New Orleans as a Cat. 4.

"A land strike to the west of New Orleans will place this great city within the most dangerous part of the storm,'' said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc., a forecaster based in Wayne, Pennsylvania. Gustav has the potential to generate much more damage than Katrina did.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHobr_NLC3kk&refer=home

I wish the best for everyone in that area.

[Unassisted]

We're expecting to receive thousands of evacuees from the storm here in San Antonio.

Tropical Storm Hanna is just a few days behind Gustav. It could easily cross Florida and find its way into the Gulf, too.

[OnBaseMachine]

There are two other systems out in the Atlantic that are developing. One looks like it will develop into a Tropical Depression soon. It looks like it's going to be a very busy hurricane season. One of the Fox reports said Gustav may the the strongest storm he's seen in his 32 years.

[SunDeck]

This looks like a big one. My thoughts to any zoners in the path of Gustav. Good luck, people.

[KittyDuran]

This looks like a big one. My thoughts to any zoners in the path of Gustav. Good luck, people.SandyD is on the road now getting out...:pray:

[RFS62]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1052&tstamp=200808

[Chip R]

SandyD is on the road now getting out...:pray:


I just talked to her. She's going to stay with family in Dallas tonight and her company is putting up their people in Arlington.

[GoReds33]

It's sad that it takes a hurricane like Katrina to make us aware of what they can do, but great that atleast now we are fully prepared. I hope that we can be in there the second the storm is done to help with relief.

[TeamCasey]

Thinking of you, Sandy ...... and any of you that are down there.

[TeamCasey]

I suppose it's like the boy that cried wolf and there are a thousand other factors.

I'm glad they shut the superdome and made people leave though.

[Chip R]

Now she's stuck at a gas station. Can't get to a pump.

[Chip R]

Now she's outside of Shreveport. About 3 hours to go.

[RFS62]

This will be one of the great evacuations in history.

[RFS62]

If you want to understand New Orleans' dilemma, go to google earth and look it up. Zoom out and look at the lake north of the city. That's Lake Pontchartrain.

The nightmare scenario discussed for years in the disaster relief community would be if a big hurricane came into New Orleans and made it to that lake.

Many think the entire levee system would collapse and the lake would pour into New Orleans and the surrounding communities.

If that happened, it would be underwater for months. And by underwater, I mean up to two stories in many places.

That scenario would be the end of New Orleans as we know it.

[OnBaseMachine]

It's looking like Tropical Storm Hanna could hit Florida late next week and move into the Gulf after that. Sheesh.

[RBA]

It weakened down to 140 MPH, but it's expected to ramp back up as it hits open water in the Gulf. I hope the Cubans made it through okay.

Let's hope the losses and damages are minimal.

[OnBaseMachine]

The New Orleans mayor is on TV right now calling this the storm of the century. Says people have never seen a storm this strong and they expect it to only get stronger due to 90 degrees waters in the Gulf of Mexico. He's calling for a mandatory evacuation tomorrow morning.

[robmadden1]

On Drectv channel 363 they have hurricane information slids telling you the info and what to do.

[robmadden1]

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered the mandatory evacuation of New Orleans, while Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal warned residents that the state "could see flooding worse than Hurricane Katrina," as Gustav approached the Gulf Coast.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,413941,00.html

[RBA]

Link to New Orleans tv news coverage:

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

[robmadden1]

webcast radio coverage may have to join site to listen: http://den-a.plr.liquidcompass.cc/etm_plr/audio_player.php?id=WWL&playerType=silverlight&btr=low

wwl.com

[OnBaseMachine]

Winds have dropped to 135 mph but the storm is expected to strengthen into a category five sometime tomorrow. It also looks like it has jogged a bit to the east.

[OnBaseMachine]

Winds have dropped to 120 but they are still saying it's expected to strengthen into a strong cat. 4 or 5. Some guy on Fox just said it could become a full force Cat. 5 sometime today.

[Reds Fanatic]

It is now expected to make landfall around 8 AM tomorrow. Here is the current track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

The guy on MSNBC says it appears the storm may be shifting to the east a bit.

[GoReds33]

The guy on MSNBC says it appears the storm may be shifting to the east a bit.Would that mean it would be going more towards New Orleans?:eek:

[OnBaseMachine]

Would that mean it would be going more towards New Orleans?:eek:

If the path remains the same New Orleans is still expected to get pounded, but forecasters say if it moves 25-30 miles east it would be the worst case scenario for New Orleans. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

[OnBaseMachine]

New update. The winds remain the same but the pressure dropped which indicates the storm is strengthening. The meteorologist on CNN just said the storm is 440 miles wide...that's crazy.

Looks like the storm may have jogged slightly west.

[RFS62]

It's fair to say that FEMA and the Federal and State government agencies involved in the early days of Katrina failed miserably.

It was a monumental collapse from top to bottom as the world watched New Orleans' misery.

It's also fair to say that this time they are ready. They learned from the brutal public failures of Katrina.

This is the greatest CYA fest I've ever seen. Every agency involved is locked and loaded.

We'll see how it goes once the storm comes ashore. But for now, they're incredibly well prepared.

[Spring~Fields]

Every agency involved is locked and loaded.

We'll see how it goes once the storm comes ashore. But for now, they're incredibly well prepared.

Excellent.

[OnBaseMachine]

The good news is it appears the storm will stay a powerful Cat. 3 instead of intensifying into a Cat. 4 or 5.

[SandyD]

I think a lot of the problems after Katrina was communications among the various agencies on all levels. That's improved a lot from what I hear ... at least prior to the storm.

Now, those of us who are evacuated are having cell phone service problems.

The holiday weekend made a big difference this time as well, I think.

[SandyD]

BTW,

I haven't unpacked. I'm planning on going home by the end of the week.

[SandyD]

Thought some of you might find this interesting.


Lafitte's unofficial command center: the shrimp boat "Mister Jug"
by Chris Kirkham, The Times-Picayune
Sunday August 31, 2008, 6:29 PM
Just off Privateer Boulevard in the hamlet of Jean Lafitte, Ronald Dufrene and a small crew of shrimpers are bedding down for Hurricane Gustav in the safest place they know: the cockpit of the hulking trawler "Mister Jug."

With 10,000 gallons of drinking water in the hull, two satellite television sets and a freezer full of filleted catfish and steaks, the 98-foot shrimp boat is the unofficial emergency operations center for this historic, but vulnerable fishing village.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/lafittes_unofficial_command_ce.html

[SandyD]

webcast radio coverage may have to join site to listen: http://den-a.plr.liquidcompass.cc/etm_plr/audio_player.php?id=WWL&playerType=silverlight&btr=low

wwl.com


During the storm (and during the evac) this station takes callers from different places asking what they are experiencing. It can be interesting.

[OnBaseMachine]

Still a Cat. 3 but the storm has slowed down a bit.

[Unassisted]

During the storm (and during the evac) this station takes callers from different places asking what they are experiencing. It can be interesting.

When I was visiting Ohio this summer, I was able to pick up the station at night on 870 AM. I've been listening to it here for the last couple of nights. The first-person accounts can be gripping.

[SandyD]

the first person accounts DURING the storm are most certainly gripping.

The projected path at this point seems to be far enough west that I feel better about the eastbank (where the french quarter is, where my home and Alfred's home are). Still, the westbank is quite vulnerable, as are the smaller, less populated places in the "bayou country" and the river parishes. (just up river from New Orleans.)

[cincinnati chili]

Glad to hear your spirit is okay and that you're in communication with the outside world. I am in Alfred's former home city today (sunny and clear), and the thought of hurricane weather and people in peril seems unthinkable. My best to everyone in the region, including the two of you.

[OnBaseMachine]

If you look at the current track in motion on CNN it looks like the storm is taking a jog to the northeast toward Mississippi yet the projected path still has it going to the west of New Orleans.

I hope your house makes it through OK, Sandy.:)

[SandyD]

http://pics4.city-data.com/tym/un1164.png

This is the area most threatened. It's a pretty good image ... you can see all the water ways the storm surge can push thru, with little resistance.

My home is between "Metairie" and "Destrahan", fairly close to the lake, which is along the top edge. Elevation of my house ... +3 ft. :)

Alfred's home is farther east ... and higher ... in an area known as "the sliver by the river."

[vaticanplum]

Good luck to you, Sandy. It's good to hear you're safe at least.

[deltachi8]

Glad to hear your safe Sandy. This is my first hurricane season in Houston and I have been glued to the weather channel and weather underground for a few days now.

[robmadden1]

WDSU channel 6 from New Orleans is on directv exclusively on channel 361 for everyone don't matter what package you have everyone gets it. Its only on I think just for hurricane coverage. After the hurricane is over I think they will drop the channel nationally.

[SandyD]

Glad to hear your spirit is okay and that you're in communication with the outside world. I am in Alfred's former home city today (sunny and clear), and the thought of hurricane weather and people in peril seems unthinkable. My best to everyone in the region, including the two of you.

Thanks.

I'm shocked so many people evacuated. It's a good thing this happened over a weekend. They've called mandatory evacuations for coastal residents from Mobile to extreme east Texas.

[SandyD]

Glad to hear your safe Sandy. This is my first hurricane season in Houston and I have been glued to the weather channel and weather underground for a few days now.

Learn about your area now. Each area has a unique set of problems. Know the problems of your area. Know when and why you might need to evacuate. Know what to expect, how to prepare if you ride out a storm at home. (If you live in Houston for an extended period of time, you will likely choose to ride out some storms.)

How do you like living in Houston?



WDSU channel 6 from New Orleans is on directv exclusively on channel 361 for everyone don't matter what package you have everyone gets it. Its only on I think just for hurricane coverage. After the hurricane is over I think they will drop the channel nationally.

That is really good to hear. My coworker was on vacation in New York when Katrina hit ... and they couldn't get back. They had no contact with local media while they were gone. She couldn't get the details she wanted from national media. Their interest is general, and she wanted specifics. The local media knew what people wanted to hear.

[Reds Fanatic]

Learn about your area now. Each area has a unique set of problems. Know the problems of your area. Know when and why you might need to evacuate. Know what to expect, how to prepare if you ride out a storm at home. (If you live in Houston for an extended period of time, you will likely choose to ride out some storms.)

How do you like living in Houston?




That is really good to hear. My coworker was on vacation in New York when Katrina hit ... and they couldn't get back. They had no contact with local media while they were gone. She couldn't get the details she wanted from national media. Their interest is general, and she wanted specifics. The local media knew what people wanted to hear.


Another way to get some local coverage from New Orleans is if you have an XM radio their emergency channel 247 is carrying some local New Orleans coverage.

[SandyD]

If you look at the current track in motion on CNN it looks like the storm is taking a jog to the northeast toward Mississippi yet the projected path still has it going to the west of New Orleans.

I hope your house makes it through OK, Sandy.:)


They don't change the track with every update. And, I heard a meteorologist say we're really past the "forecast" stage, and are pay more attention to actual coordinates.

[deltachi8]

Learn about your area now. Each area has a unique set of problems. Know the problems of your area. Know when and why you might need to evacuate. Know what to expect, how to prepare if you ride out a storm at home. (If you live in Houston for an extended period of time, you will likely choose to ride out some storms.)

How do you like living in Houston?






Luckily, my wife has been here for a bit and knows the drill (she was here for Rita). We are north of the city and off the flood plain so fairly safe here but you never can rule anything out.

So far I like it here. I'm one of the crazy people who like the heat/humidity of the area. Also the area has plenty to keep one busy.

[Jpup]

I went and filled the truck with gas because it will probably be $5 a gallon before the end of the week. $75 later, I'm in good shape for a couple weeks.

[SandyD]

the eye-wall looks like it's passing close to grand isle. hurricane force winds just starting to hit nola. They expect the eye wall to make landfall in about 2 hours.

they're expecting storm surge about half of what they originally thought. NOLA area westbank can handle (supposedly) up to 7 ft, and it's expected to reach between 5-8 ft there.

[SandyD]

I went and filled the truck with gas because it will probably be $5 a gallon before the end of the week. $75 later, I'm in good shape for a couple weeks.

I'm sure prices will go up.

One of the biggest threats to the oil industry from this storm:
the two major pipelines that carry the oil pumped offshore pass thru Port Fourchon (near ground zero) and Venice (to the east of landfall, near the mouth of the river.)

If BOTH are shut down for a significant time, we could have some problems.

[SunDeck]

I have a cousin who just moved back into her house in NOLA last month. We haven't heard from her but my guess is she's in Mississippi right now.

[RFS62]

One of these days one of these idiots who stand out in hurricane force winds is going to get decapitated on live tv by some flying debris.

[SandyD]

I have a cousin who just moved back into her house in NOLA last month. We haven't heard from her but my guess is she's in Mississippi right now.

Hopefully she did evacuate, because these storms are scary even if there's no major damage.

Didn't she live in Lakeview? (that are is just starting to get back on its feet)

So far so good for her area (and mine). I don't think they've had to shut the flood gates in the 17th st canal.

Still a long way to go, tho.

[Reds Fanatic]

Gustav has just dropped to a category 2 with max winds of 110 MPH just before the eye hits land.

[SandyD]

One of these days one of these idiots who stand out in hurricane force winds is going to get decapitated on live tv by some flying debris.


I don't know why they do that.

[RFS62]

I don't know why they do that.



It's turned into a contest.

And it encourages other idiots to do it too.

I can't believe the insurance companies for the networks allow it. Can you imagine the lawsuit if one of them gets maimed or killed?

One roof tile could kill you if it hits you in the head at 75 mph.

[OnBaseMachine]

Look at all the tropical systems brewing...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/two_atl.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

Water is topping the Levees in the Ninth Ward per Fox News. They are worried about a loose barge potentially taking out a levee.

[OnBaseMachine]

One of these days one of these idiots who stand out in hurricane force winds is going to get decapitated on live tv by some flying debris.

Yep. Check out this video below at 3:10... Anderson Cooper was nearly hit by a flying sign.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weather/2008/09/01/gustav.cooper.sign.dcl.cnn

[OnBaseMachine]

The water appears to be pouring into the Ninth Ward. The loose barge has been tied down so it's no longer a threat, but now there are a couple of boats missing.

[OnBaseMachine]

CNN is a reporting a possible breach in one of the levees.

[OnBaseMachine]

New storm has developed and look where it's headed:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/144313_sm.gif

It never stops.

[edabbs44]

Yep. Check out this video below at 3:10... Anderson Cooper was nearly hit by a flying sign.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weather/2008/09/01/gustav.cooper.sign.dcl.cnn

Fast fwd to about 4:50 or so...I'm sure you've all seen it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_nm5guuLLE

[OnBaseMachine]

Yeah, I actually watched that movie for the first time about a month ago

[OnBaseMachine]

The meteorologist on Fox just said she expects Tropical Depression #9 to develop into a Cat. 2 or possible 3 by the weekend.

[OnBaseMachine]

Hanna has developed into a Cat. 1 Hurricane as it aims for the Georgia/South Carolina border.

[MrCinatit]

Yep. Check out this video below at 3:10... Anderson Cooper was nearly hit by a flying sign.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weather/2008/09/01/gustav.cooper.sign.dcl.cnn

Didn't Cooper almost get hit by a sign during Katrina? I was discussing that with a coworker - probably about the same time that happened.

[SunDeck]

Didn't Cooper almost get hit by a sign during Katrina? I was discussing that with a coworker - probably about the same time that happened.

Actually, I think what almost hit him was this guy.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/weather/09/01/gustav/art.no.gustav.gi.jpg

[OnBaseMachine]

Tropical Storm Ike has developed.

[SandyD]

I'm pretty sure the reports of breaches were wrong.

I saw a report from a local source that said on Baton Rouge station should some footage of Katrina ... and national media missed the fact that is was Katrina, not Gustav

Jeff Parish President it set to announce his plans for allowing people back in tonight at 7pm. They think we might be going home on Wednesday. Tho, I'm thinking that might be optimistic. Unless power is restored to most of the area tonight.

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm pretty sure the reports of breaches were wrong.


It looks like they exaggerated it a bit. They showed some video of water leaking through a levee but it wasn't anything too major. But there is a new report on CNN and The Times Picayune that a levee in the Plaquemines Parish is overflowing and they are afraid it may fail soon.

[SandyD]

yeah, I just heard that. The Plaquemines Parish president just placed an urgent call to WWL radio to get people out ... any that stayed behind.

This kind of thing happens "after" the storm passes.

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's an article on it... hopefully not too many people stayed behind in that area.

Plaquemines Parish levee overtopped, subdivision threatened
by Andrew Vanacore, The Times-Picayune
Monday September 01, 2008, 4:43 PM

St. Bernard Parish firefighters and sheriff's deputies are rolling to a levee overtopping in Braithwaite in Plaquemines Parish. Plaquemines Parish workers have been trying to bolster the levee along the Clearwater Canal that is being overtopped by floodwaters that threaten the Braithwaite Park subdivision.

Plaquemines Parish workers have been furiously working on the levee since mid afternoon. The levee has nbot breached, but authorities are not hopeful.

"We don't think our efforts are going to be successful so we need to get everyone out now,'' Parish President Billy Nungesser said.

Meanwhile, St. Bernard Parish is sending firefighters, deputies and other workers to the area to help with the efforts.

The canal is on the east bank of the parish. The subdivision is located off Louisiana 39.

Officials said the same levee is also being overtopped further south at Scarsdale.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/09/plaquemines_parish_levee_threa.html

[SandyD]

the people that live there are mostly smart, and likely mostly left.

Also, they are hearty, and live close to the water. So they'll know how to get out, if it's possible.

[OnBaseMachine]

But Bill Nungesser, president of Louisiana's Plaquemines parish, said two levees in his district 55 miles (90 kilometers) southeast of New Orleans were about to burst.

"We have sandbags coming but are fighting a losing battle," he told a local radio station, adding to remaining residents: "Get out, and get out now."

About 21,500 people live in Plaquemines on a Gulf coast peninsula. At least 2,000 residents who live on its west bank decided to ride out the storm, Nungesser said.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hwnp8-GpZx5AKc5KJU6mZybS8sUw

[SandyD]

Just heard Gov Jindall's press conference:

A large percentage of people in south Louisiana from Lafayette and Alexandria eastward are without power. Much of Kenner is without power and water, but limited flooding.

Jindall mentioned some unconfirmed reports of levee overtopping/breaches in the Chauvin area, near where Gustav made landfall.

There are 4 (I think) Black Hawk helicopters headed out to work search and rescue. Not many reports from that area yet.

(not from the press conference): Jindall has asked Bush to release some unspecified amount of the oil reserves to assist the area. Gulf oil rigs are completely shutdown. Port Fourchon is not yet reporting, but they do expect quite a bit of damage. There are oil pipelines, etc. The oil refineries have about a 3 day supply, and you know everyone will need to fill up when they get back to the area.

Water level in the lake is still rising, which means water levels elsewhere is also.

The refinery in Baton Rouge (Exxon) is performing a "warm shut down." Baton Rouge was kind of hard hit for being so far inland.

[OnBaseMachine]

Yet another tropical wave has rolled off Africa and is right behind TS Ike. Unbelievable. There are two active hurricane, one tropical storm, one well defined wave that is expected to develop into a depression anytime now, and two other systems with low potential of developing. This is the most active week I've seen in terms of tropical systems developing.

[OnBaseMachine]

Good news... it appears the Plaquemines levee is no longer a threat to breach as the water has receded a bit.

[SandyD]

water is still rising in Lake Pontchartrain.

They've closed the 17th st canal levee

[OnBaseMachine]

The Meteorologist on MSNBC says Tropical Storm Ike will most likely enter the Gulf sometime next week.

[SandyD]

Power is on at my house ... I just called my home phone and the ans mach picked up.

To tell you the truth, I'm not sure it ever went out, because I couldn't get thru. Cell phones aren't working consistently.

[SandyD]

any RZ'rs in Hannah's path?

[15fan]

we desperately need the rain here in north Georgia. For the past couple of years, we've heard that the only way to break the drought cycle that we're in is to have multiple tropical storms wash through here. Looks like Fay may have started the party.

My in-laws live about 1/4 mile from the harbor in Charleston. They may be paying us a visit towards the end of the week.

[SandyD]

yeah, Charleston is low as well. Hopefully it won't be too bad.

I've heard that about your water/drought issue in GA. Hopefully it will breaks soon, without too much damage.

[SandyD]

As of 3pm, the power is out in my office bldg. So, for now, I'm still here in Arlington TX, doing what I can to keep the company running.

[15fan]

yeah, Charleston is low as well. Hopefully it won't be too bad.

yep. low is right. and the drainage is nonexistant.

at this point, they're hoping that the storm doesn't get much stronger than a cat 1, and that it comes ashore at low tide.

[SandyD]

Hope so too.

There's still coastal flood warnings in south louisiana,

[Reds Fanatic]

Hannah looks like it is going to be a fast moving storm. Currently projected to hit around South Carolina Friday night be all the way up to Pennsylvania Saturday night and out of the country by Sunday night. Looks like most of the east coast will get rain this weekend from Hannah but luckily it won't stick around long.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W5+gif/144212W_sm.gif

[RFS62]

Here's a great interactive map showing all the activity.


http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=13.7&lon=-27.5&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0

[RFS62]

Here's an excellent blog from the same site.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1058&tstamp=200809

[SandyD]

I really like that site. Both the graphs and the blog.
It's where I check first for hurricane updates.

Then I listen to our local weathercasters, who are most familiar with our area. They tend to be more accurate in projecting the effects on problem areas.

All of the transmission wires (14 of them) between NOLA metro and Baton Rouge were knocked down. At least one has been restored, and is receiving power. So, they're confident that progress can be made.

Nagin made some ominous comment about a "stealth storm" and hidden damages to infrastructure, but I'm not sure what he means. We'll see.

My coworker lives in Slidell, and the water was about 2 inches and still rising as of yesterday afternoon. The storm still showed some circulation, and was still pulling water in from the gulf. Her home is recently rebuilt since Katrina.

[SandyD]

New Orleans is not open yet ... til midnight tonight.

For those who are trying to pass THROUGH New Orleans to the surrounding parishes:

NOPD is stopping them at the border to check IDs of EVERY CAR.

Big traffic backup already, and it will get worse, unless they change their procedures: (like manning the exits rather than blocking the entire Interstate.

[Tommyjohn25]

Hannah looks like it is going to be a fast moving storm. Currently projected to hit around South Carolina Friday night be all the way up to Pennsylvania Saturday night and out of the country by Sunday night. Looks like most of the east coast will get rain this weekend from Hannah but luckily it won't stick around long.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT08/refresh/AL0808W5+gif/144212W_sm.gif


That's odd. I just looked at the forecast for Rock Hill, SC. Which is where I work, it only mentions a 30% chance of slight showers on Friday, and sunny for the remainder of the weekend...

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike has developed into a Cat. 1 Hurricane with 80 mph winds.

[Reds Fanatic]

The path for Hanna keeps shifting now that picture looks like it could skip South Carolina and hit North Carolina and Ike looks like it is headed to the Gulf early next week.

[OnBaseMachine]

It looks like they are expected Ike to develop into a Cat. 4 before it even reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[SandyD]

Map of Louisiana showing power outages. Only 2 parishes (out of 64) report "normal operations." This is as of 9am this morning.

http://www.gov.state.la.us/assets/docs/ElectricOutagesMap.JPG

[LoganBuck]

This was in my email today from Priceline.com: "PriceBreakers: 72% off Hilton Head Island Resorts This Weekend"

I think I will pass.

[MrCinatit]

Interesting thing from work.
I work at Home Depot, in a small-market, mid-Ohio store. This morning, we are sending out all of our generators to one of the Dayton stores, which in turn is sending practically every generator in the Dayton area to Florida - for Ike. Not to Louisiana for Gustav. Not to the Carolinas for Hanna. To Florida.

[NJReds]

Interesting thing from work.
I work at Home Depot, in a small-market, mid-Ohio store. This morning, we are sending out all of our generators to one of the Dayton stores, which in turn is sending practically every generator in the Dayton area to Florida - for Ike. Not to Louisiana for Gustav. Not to the Carolinas for Hanna. To Florida.

Is it possible that other Home Depots are sending generators to those other regions. Perhaps to Lousinana from Texas and to South Carolina from Virginia?

[MrCinatit]

Is it possible that other Home Depots are sending generators to those other regions. Perhaps to Lousinana from Texas and to South Carolina from Virginia?

I certainly hope so.

[oneupper]

Ike seems to be heading for where RFS62 and I live. Fortunately, still lots of time for track to change. Wilma was a big mess back in '05.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike seems to be heading for where RFS62 and I live. Fortunately, still lots of time for track to change. Wilma was a big mess back in '05.

Hopefully it misses you guys. If it holds the current path it will cross into the Gulf and hit around Mississippi.

[RFS62]

Hopefully it misses you guys. If it holds the current path it will cross into the Gulf and hit around Mississippi.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

Sorry, I should have clarified it better. After it hits Florida it appears it may head into the Gulf towards Mississippi. I'm not too familiar with the area, is Coral Springs around Miami?

[RFS62]

Yes, I'm about 6 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale

[Reds Fanatic]

Here is the latest on Ike forecast to hit Florida as a category 3 on Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/144313W_sm.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

Yes, I'm about 6 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale

You planning on evacuating? IIRC you're a former West Virginian right? You're welcome to join us again, we're safe from Hurricanes up here. :D

[RFS62]

You planning on evacuating? IIRC you're a former West Virginian right? You're welcome to join us again, we're safe from Hurricanes up here. :D



Yes, I'm originally from West Virginia. I'll be staying here through the hurricane. Puffy is driving down and we're going to lash ourselves to the antennae on top of the Diplomat hotel and ride it out like Captain Dan in Forrest Gump.

:cool:

[OnBaseMachine]

:lol:

You guys stay safe. Hopefully the storm will veer to the right and miss ya.

[oneupper]

Consensus Track has been moved south. Models however are very disperse.

http://208.83.252.72/radar/Hurr_Plots_web.jpg?22702045

[OnBaseMachine]

It is also possible that the trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Ike to the north, and that the storm will enter the Gulf of Mexico. A second trough of low pressure would then turn Ike north, resulting in a n eventual landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Texas. This is the forecast of the ECMWF and GFS models. My current thinking is along these lines:

20% chance Ike will hit the east coast of Florida.
30% chance Ike will hit the Florida Keys.
30% chance Ike will hit Cuba. If this happens, there is 30% chance it would miss Florida and head into the Gulf of Mexico.
10% chance that Ike will miss Florida, but hit further north along the U.S. coast.
10% chance Ike will curve north out to sea and not hit the U.S.

Overall, I'd give the Gulf Coast a 70% chance of getting hit (including the west coast of Florida).

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[cumberlandreds]

The DC area has tropical wind warnings issued for tonight and tomorrow. Also 4+ inches of rain from the remnants of Hanna. That's enough for me,thank you.

[Reds Fanatic]

Latest track looks like Ike may shoot right past Florida and into the gulf. Though it is close enough that Florida could still be hit by Ike or feel the effects from the storm.

[OnBaseMachine]

The new path from the NHC has Ike moving between Cuba and Florida and moving into the Gulf of Mexico next week. If it were to hold it's current path it would hit around Mississippi... a slight jog to the left would bring more trouble for New Orleans, though it's still a long way off and the path could change.

[paintmered]

If this storm hits the gulf, we may see it turn into a Cat 5. :eek:

[oneupper]

The new path from the NHC has Ike moving between Cuba and Florida and moving into the Gulf of Mexico next week. If it were to hold it's current path it would hit around Mississippi... a slight jog to the left would bring more trouble for New Orleans, though it's still a long way off and the path could change.

Since you seem to know about this stuff, my mother (78 today) tells me that the "British Model" is one that seems to be quite accurate. Do you know which one that is?

BTW....big lines for water/supplies in Sam's in S.Florida today...just in case.

[OnBaseMachine]

Since you seem to know about this stuff, my mother (78 today) tells me that the "British Model" is one that seems to be quite accurate. Do you know which one that is?

BTW....big lines for water/supplies in Sam's in S.Florida today...just in case.

To tell you the truth, I've never heard of the British Model. I really don't know too much about this stuff other than what I read on the NHC website. :)

[OnBaseMachine]

New projected path has Ike heading straight towards the New Orleans area as a powerful Cat. 4 hurricane. There is still plenty of time for it to shift, though...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/025613W_sm.gif

[oneupper]

New projected path has Ike heading straight towards the New Orleans area as a powerful Cat. 4 hurricane. There is still plenty of time for it to shift, though...


Good news for us Florida Residents is that ALL models show the hurricane passing to the south, mostly over Cuba. Now it's a matter of how much it penetrates into the Gulf before turning north.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike is back up to a Cat. 4 Hurricane with 135 mph winds.

[OnBaseMachine]

The new update has it hitting Cuba and dropping to a Cat. 1 before moving into the Gulf and restrengthening to Cat. 3 and moving in a similar path to Gustav.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_5day.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

Hurricane Ike threatens Cuba and Gulf

HAVANA (Reuters) - Hurricane Ike charged toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico as a ferocious Category 4 storm on Saturday, while Tropical Storm Hanna drenched the U.S. Atlantic coast after barrelling ashore in the Carolinas.

Ike's top sustained winds reached 135 miles per hour (215 kph), making it an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Ike alternately weakened and strengthened but was likely to remain a "major" hurricane of at least Category 3 as it slammed into Cuba, the forecasters said.

The densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area in south Florida seemed an increasingly less likely target but visitors were ordered to flee the vulnerable Florida Keys island chain on Saturday.

Computer models indicated Ike would sweep into Cuba late on Sunday, severely threatening sugar cane fields, the tourist hotels of Varadero and the crumbling colonial buildings of Havana.

The storm was forecast to curve into the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of this week's Hurricane Gustav, plowing toward an area that produces a quarter of domestic U.S. oil, and slamming ashore near New Orleans, which was swamped and traumatized by Hurricane Katrina three years ago.

Katrina was a Category 3 when it struck near New Orleans on August 29, 2005, swamping the city and killing 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The deeper Ike goes into Cuba, the weaker it will be once it re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, the hurricane center said. It added, however, "Some restrengthening is forecast once Ike departs Cuba."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKN036933920080907?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0

[OnBaseMachine]

Storm continues to jog to left and is now aiming towards Texas.

[KittyDuran]

Here's another site for tropical storms...

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

[oneupper]

BTW, the "British" model my mom was talking about is the UKMET model (as in UK - Meteorological - Duh...). It seems to be tracking out further west.

[Unassisted]

BTW, the "British" model my mom was talking about is the UKMET model (as in UK - Meteorological - Duh...). It seems to be tracking out further west.Farther west, as in direct hit on Corpus Christi - at least according to the composite track map on the site Kitty posted. That track is probably the worst case scenario for those of us who live 120 miles inland from Corpus Christi.

[OnBaseMachine]

Once Ike emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, a trough of low pressure passing to the north may be able to induce a more north-northwesterly to Ike, and pull it towards the Florida Panhandle, bringing tropical storm force winds to Tampa on Wednesday. The HWRF is the only model showing this, and the rest of the models push Ike more to the west, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The eventual landfall locations predicted by the models range from Alabama to the Mexican border. It is too early to have a feel for where Ike will go at this point, since landfall is probably 6-7 days form now.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed to 29.5°C underneath Ike and will warm to 30.0°C over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear has dropped below 10 knots and is expected to remain below 10 knots for the next four days. As long as Ike is not over Cuba, it has very favorable conditions for intensification. Once Ike passes Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, the intensification potential remains high, as shear is predicted to be below 15 knots, and the waters are hot.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[KYRedsFan]

Heading to Key West mid month. Following this thread and other sites closely. Looks like Cuba will suck most of the energy from Ike while it's in proximity to the Keys. Will be a nervous couple weeks for me.

[OnBaseMachine]

Powerful Hurricane Ike heads for Cuba, Gulf
09.07.08, 2:49 PM ET

By Marc Frank

HAVANA (Reuters) - Ferocious Hurricane Ike ripped off roofs in the southern Bahamas on Sunday and Cuba scrambled to move hundreds of thousands of people inland, away from a storm eventually headed toward the U.S. Gulf oilpatch and possibly New Orleans.

A dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds and a possible 18-foot storm surge, Ike bore down on Cuba's northeast coast after raging through Britain's Turks and Caicos, an overseas territory of about 22,000 people, and Great Inagua, the Bahamas' southernmost island.

"This one is quite severe," said Inagua resident Shanie Roker. "There is a lot of wind and rain. Roofs in Matthew Town are being damaged and trees are coming down."

Residents of the Florida Keys, a 110-mile island chain connected by bridges with only one road out, were told to evacuate as a precaution.

Ike could follow a path similar to that of Hurricane Gustav through the Gulf of Mexico toward Louisiana and Texas, possibly threatening New Orleans, the city swamped by Katrina three years ago, and the Gulf energy rigs, which account for a quarter of U.S. oil and 15 percent of natural gas output.

MOVING TO HIGHER GROUND

Many of Cuba's 11 million people could be affected by Ike, which was expected to move ashore north of Guantanamo Bay -- home to the U.S. Navy base housing the controversial prison camp for terrorism suspects -- and spend nearly two days over the long, narrow island.

Authorities used buses, trucks and other transportation to move thousands of tourists inland from Cuba's prime resorts along the northern coast from Guardalavaca in eastern Holguin to Varadero. Ranchers herded cattle in the prime grazing areas of eastern Las Tunas and Camaguey to higher ground.

"We are at a disadvantage because there are no hills and mountains to break the wind," farm worker Artemio Madonadoemos said from the flatlands of Las Tunas. "If the storm comes through here the damage will be enormous."

Ike was set to come ashore in Holguin, home of the nickel industry, Cuba's most important export, then move westward over the heart of the sugar industry. Holguin's mines and three processing plants in the mountains were shut down.

The hurricane rained new misery on Haiti, where flooding triggered by Tropical Storm Hanna was believed to have killed at least 500 people around the port city of Gonaives.

"I believe the death toll is much higher," Gonaives chief Mayor Stephen Moise said, adding it had started raining again, floodwaters were rising and bridges linking the city to the rest of the country had collapsed.

"Gonaives is really a devastated and isolated city," he said. "We cannot bear another hurricane."

By 2 p.m. EDT, the center of Ike was just west of Great Inagua Island, where a satellite dish on the roof of a phone company building collapsed and high winds blew the shutters off the police station.

'TOO CLOSE'

A steady stream of traffic moved along the Overseas Highway in the Florida Keys as some residents evacuated even though Ike was expected to pass at least 100 miles to the south.

"It's just too close to not react to it," Monroe County administrator Roman Gastesi said.

A homeless shelter shut down and bused its residents to Miami, and business owner Bill Murphy evacuated the staff of his adult-themed shop, and his entire collection of Halloween costumes for Key West's annual Fantasy Fest event, to Orlando.

"I've got everyone on my staff ... living with my Orlando employees," he said. "I have a big investment in the costumes because of Fantasy Fest so they were important to save too."

Ike was forecast to curve into the Gulf in the wake of Gustav, which went ashore just west of New Orleans last week, sparing the city traumatized by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Katrina killed 1,500 people and caused about $80 billion damage on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Ike's most likely track had it headed for the Texas-Louisiana border. But long-range forecasts have a large margin of error and a slight deviation could take it toward New Orleans.

Forecasters expected Ike to weaken to a Category 1 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson intensity scale over Cuba but to regain Category 3 strength as it nears the U.S. Gulf coast.

Oil companies had begun returning workers to the offshore platforms that were evacuated before Gustav hit. But one company, Shell Oil Co., said Saturday it had stopped returning workers in case new evacuations were needed. (Additional reporting by Michael Haskins in Key West and John Marquis in Nassau, writing by Jim Loney; editing by David Wiessler)

http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/09/07/2008-09-07T184930Z_01_N96453803_RTRIDST_0_STORM-IKE-WRAPUP-4-PIX-TV.html

[OnBaseMachine]

As Ike moves approaches within 300 miles of the Louisiana coast on Friday, there will be another trough of low pressure capable of turning the storm to the north. The GFS, GFDL, HWRF, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Ike northwards into central or western Louisiana. The UKMET and ECMWF models disagree, and think high pressure will dominate enough to force Ike westwards into Texas, between Corpus Christi and the Louisiana border. These two models have been trending too far south with Ike so far, so I would lean towards a landfall in western Louisiana at this point.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[Unassisted]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Looks like he's revised his thinking westward.


All five major models--the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF--foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning.

The State of Texas emergency management folks have asked every county in the state to get into the highest state of readiness for Ike's landfall. Considering that there are over 200 counties here, that's a big deal. :eek:

[OnBaseMachine]

Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday. Key West radar shows that the inner eyewall of Ike has collapsed, but satellite loops show that Ike has maintained a large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

The capital of Havana missed the worst of Ike, and reported highest sustained winds of just 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 8 am this morning. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.

Track forecast for Ike
A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.

The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas. Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.

Intensity forecast for Ike
Ike survived the passage of Cuba well, and remains a large a well-organized hurricane. Significant strengthening will not occur until early Wednesday morning, since the storm has to build a new eyewall. Water temperatures are a warm 29.5°C in the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear is expected to be modest, 10-15 knots. Ike will be crossing over two regions of high heat content associated with the Loop Current and a Loop Current eddy (Figure 3). The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday. The wind shear for Friday has changed, and we are expecting wind shear to remain around 15 knots, which is still low enough to allow intensification. There is much higher oceanic heat content off the Texas coast than was present off the Louisiana coast for Gustav. Thus, it is less likely that Ike will significantly weaken as it approaches the coast. The GFDL and HWRF models predict landfall in southern Texas as a Category 4 hurricane Friday night. The SHIPS model is less aggressive, and foresees a Category 1 hurricane at landfall. Given the impressive appearance of Ike on satellite imagery, and the forecasts of high heat content and low shear along its path, I would be surprised if Ike hit as anything weaker than a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Here's my rough probability break-down for Ike's strength at landfall, I forecast a 50% chance Ike will be a major hurricane at landfall:

Category 1 or weaker: 20%
Category 2: 30%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4 or 5: 20%

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[OnBaseMachine]

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas

There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge. This is what Hurricane Carla of 1961 did to Texas. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[oneupper]

This one looks like its headed dead-center on the Texas Coast. Our friends in the lone star state should stay safe, but if I can add something...don't overreact. We've had our share over the past few years in Florida and these things aren't as bad as they look on TV.

I still remember the evacuation of Houston with Hurricane Rita. More suffering and death in the evacuation than from the hurrican itself.

Book yourselves a hotel someplace far enough (200 miles) and cancel it if you don't need it. Don't run unless you are in a dangerous situation (barrier island or flood area, etc.).

[Unassisted]

If Ike makes landfall as a Category 3 or higher, we could get 100 MPH winds in San Antonio on Saturday. Most of the high schools here are moving Saturday football games to Thursday. In some cases, they're moving Friday games to Thursday.

I have a meeting about 50 miles north on I-35 late Friday afternoon, so I'll probably have a fun drive there and back between the rain, the evacuee traffic and the usual Friday afternoon commuters. I dropped hints to the person who scheduled it that I would be completely open to postponing if circumstances on his end warranted it. We'll see if he takes me up on it.

[OnBaseMachine]

Track forecast for Ike
Ike is moving west-northwest under the influence of a blocking ridge of high pressure to its north. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike more to the northwest. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and remain closed most of Saturday.

The latest 00Z/06Z (8pm/2am EDT)) computer models have begun to zero in on Corpus Christi to Freeport as the most likely landfall location. However, with a trough of low pressure expected to turn Ike close to landfall time, a slight variation in timing of this trough could put Ike ashore farther north, near Galveston. There is also a chance the ridge pushing Ike west Thursday could be stronger than expected, forcing Ike more to the west towards a Brownsville landfall. However, I believe that this is lower probability, and that Galveston is more likely to get hit than Brownsville. The cone of uncertainty still covers the entire Texas coast. If Ike hits Corpus Christi, it will miss most of the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 2), but a hit closer to Galveston would seriously disrupt the oil and gas industry.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds. At 11 am EDT, NHC called for these odds of getting hurricane force winds at various Texas cities:

Brownsville: 9%
Corpus Christi: 17%
Port O'Connor: 24%
Freeport: 23%
Galveston: 20%
Houston: 13%

As you can see, Port O'Connor is considered the most likely city in Texas to receive hurricane force winds. I believe the percentages for the cities above except Brownsville are too low, and should be bumped up by 5-10%.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike has strengthened back to a Cat. 2 with 100 mph winds.

[OnBaseMachine]

A large spiral band surrounding Ike's inner eye is attempting to close off and form a new outer eyewall with a diameter of 100 miles. The power struggle between the small inner eyewall and the large outer spiral band will likely go on until Thursday, resulting in little intensification of Ike this evening. By Thursday, the power struggle will likely be over, and Ike will probably resume intensification. If the small eyewall wins, Ike could intensify rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane; if the large spiral band takes over as the new eyewall and the inner eyewall crumbles, we can expect more gradual intensification to a Category 3 hurricane.

Ike continues to grow in size, and its tropical storm force winds extend out almost as far as Katrina's did. This large wind field is already starting to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are already running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Visible satellite loops show that Ike has good upper-level outflow channels open to the north and the south. Outflow and cloud cover are restricted on the storm's west side, where dry air and wind shear of 10-15 knots are affecting the storm. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and will probably remain closed most of Saturday. Ike has a good chance of becoming the most destructive hurricane in Texas history--though not the most powerful.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[deltachi8]

Well, things here have become a bit more interesting....still take it over a blizzard though.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike intensifying explosively

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:25 AM GMT on September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

Ike is almost as large as Katrina was, and this large wind field is already beginning to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Tides have risen one foot above normal in Galveston too. The water level will continue to rise as Ike approaches Texas, and NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast (Figure 1) is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 10-12 feet at Galveston, and 18-21 feet on the south and east sides of Houston.

Ike is likely to be a extremely dangerous major hurricane at landfall, and will likely do $10-$30 billion in damage. The chances of hundreds of people being killed in this storm is high if people do not heed evacuation orders. It is possible that Ike will make a direct hit on Galveston as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. The potential storm surge from such a hit could be in the 15-25 foot range (Figure 2), which is capable of overwhelming the 17 foot sea wall in Galveston. I put the odds of such an event at about 5%.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[OnBaseMachine]

Well, things here have become a bit more interesting....still take it over a blizzard though.

You planning on evacuating?

[deltachi8]

You planning on evacuating?

Not at his time. We are far enough inland and outside of the flood plain so we should be OK. We started prepping a bit tonight for riding it out and will watch things closely tomorrow to see if we need to head north or west. The Governor is suppose to announce some plans tomorrow at 11:30 CST.

[OnBaseMachine]

Stay safe. We'll be thinking about ya. :)


http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200809_surge.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

Category 2 Ike is larger and more powerful than Katrina

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:36 PM GMT on September 11, 2008
Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[SunDeck]

Well, things here have become a bit more interesting....still take it over a blizzard though.

Have you been through a hurricane? No blizzard ever made me feel as small and insignificant as a hurricane has.

[Roy Tucker]

The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped.



For comparison, the Category 4 Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (which killed somewhere around 6-12K people) had storm surge of 15 ft.

[Unassisted]

The northward turn of the projected track today is a plus for weather in my part of the state, but it really puts the population center of Houston and the perilous Galveston Island area at risk.

The Weather Channel has a live crew in my family's favorite vacation spot, Port Lavaca. Considering how small and untouristy PL is, it's bizarre to see it featured so prominently.

[texasdave]

Houston we have a problem. It looks like a rough ride this weekend. I plan to be hunkered down as they say in these parts. Best of luck to everyone in the area. Stay safe.

[cumberlandreds]

For comparison, the Category 4 Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (which killed somewhere around 6-12K people) had storm surge of 15 ft.

Here's Wiki's article on that Galveston storm. I hope this one isn't nearly as bad. Galveston was never the same after the 1900 storm.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900

[Unassisted]

Here's what the National Weather Service in Houston has to say about the effect in Galveston.


GULF-FACING COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO HIGH ISLAND INCLUDING
GALVESTON ISLAND...12 TO 16 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

That's really staggering. My family went to Galveston for spring break this year. It could be a very different place in a few days. :(

[OnBaseMachine]

The updated storm surge graph is showing some parts of Texas could get 24-27 foot of storm surge.

[OnBaseMachine]

Cubs-Astros expected to be postponed
Chicago to return home after Thursday's game in St. Louis
By Carrie Muskat / MLB.com

ST. LOUIS -- The Cubs' weekend games in Houston against the Astros are expected to be postponed, and the Cubs will head back to Chicago after Thursday's game against St. Louis to avoid Hurricane Ike, which is churning in the Gulf of Mexico and heading in the direction of Texas.

The Cubs and Astros are scheduled to open a three-game series Friday at Minute Maid Park. There was talk about having the Cubs and Astros play a day game Friday instead of a night game, but all plans are on hold.

The Cubs expected to make an official announcement prior to Thursday's game against the Cardinals. The Astros will

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080911&content_id=3457639&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[deltachi8]

Have you been through a hurricane? No blizzard ever made me feel as small and insignificant as a hurricane has.

This is my first, but to be fair, I am not in an evacuation zone nor along water. (I am about an hour inland). If i lived in Galveston, I would probably feel different.

Blizzards - a real nasty one - can make you feel helpless as well, and cold, so very cold....

Interesting that the winds of the storm still have not picked up as of yet - still at a Cat 2 (100 mph)....

[OnBaseMachine]

The new updated track has this thing hitting Galveston head on. As for the winds, they are still Cat. 2 at 100 mph but Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Cat. 3 or 4 which means the winds should eventually catch up to the pressure MB. Most of the meteorologists believe Ike will make landfall as a Cat. 3. This is a huge storm, that's for sure.

[SandyD]

My sister lives in Houston, and she's not evacuating. Be safe, everybody.

I've never been through a blizzard, but hurricanes can be very scary, even for those well inland and not under direct threat of storm surge.

"They say" if you're going to ride one out, sleep in shifts. Someone should be tuned to emergency radio station at all times.

Be safe, guys.

[deltachi8]

Path is shifting ever so slightly north...would not surprise me if it follows Rita's path from 2005 with a Beaumont landfall.

[OnBaseMachine]

Path is shifting ever so slightly north...would not surprise me if it follows Rita's path from 2005 with a Beaumont landfall.

Yep. It looks like the current path has it going straight up the Houston Ship Channel but it seems to be moving to the north with each update.

[OnBaseMachine]

Another note - it looks like Ike may make landfall now as a powerful Cat. 2 instead of a Cat 3., but the meteorologists have said it doesn't really matter what category this one is because it's so huge and will cause serious storm surge.

[harangatang]

The new updated track has this thing hitting Galveston head on. As for the winds, they are still Cat. 2 at 100 mph but Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Cat. 3 or 4 which means the winds should eventually catch up to the pressure MB. Most of the meteorologists believe Ike will make landfall as a Cat. 3. This is a huge storm, that's for sure.I think Ike will probably make landfall as a Cat. 3. The spatial extent of the storm is humongous so even those who are fortunate to miss the storm surge and hurricane force winds still have the potential to see tornadoes, especially in Louisiana and a lot of flash flooding all throughout the Gulf coast.

[SandyD]

look at how wide the storm surge spread is

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/resize?filename=/data/images/at200809_surge.gif

[OnBaseMachine]

Winds have increased to 105 now, still a Cat. 2. The path seems to holding steady now and aiming towards Galveston. The surge data is still showing 24-27 feet of surge in some areas. That's incredible for a Cat. 2/3 storm.

[OnBaseMachine]

Apparently there is a fuel freighter trapped about 90 miles off the coast of Galveston carrying 22 people. The coast guard has called off it's attempt to rescue them for now due to 50 foot waves and heavy wind.

[HotCorner]

Scary stuff. The last time I remember the NWS using the word death was for Katrina.

The people in this region are in my prayers.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike's record storm surge pushing into Texas

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:26 PM GMT on September 12, 2008
Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[OnBaseMachine]

LOL. I'm watching Fox News and Geraldo Rivera is reporting live from Glaveston. Just as he began talking a huge wave swept him from his feet and knocked him to the ground. Funny stuff. He jumped up and proclaimed himself the new star of Youtube.

[cumberlandreds]

LOL. I'm watching Fox News and Geraldo Rivera is reporting live from Glaveston. Just as he began talking a huge wave swept him from his feet and knocked him to the ground. Funny stuff. He jumped up and proclaimed himself the new star of Youtube.

Is Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel there? He's usually at all the storm places hanging on for dear life.

[OnBaseMachine]

Is Jim Cantore from the Weather Channel there? He's usually at all the storm places hanging on for dear life.

I believe Cantore is in Galveston. I love watching him; he knows his stuff.

[HotCorner]

I believe Cantore is in Galveston. I love watching him; he knows his stuff.

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=328&from=hp_main_tab3

[OnBaseMachine]

It looks like all the networks will be pulling their correspondents off Galveston Island fairly soon because it's too dangerous. The storm is still 10-12 hours away from landfall and Galveston is already receiving some major flooding.

[HotCorner]

Apparently there is a fuel freighter trapped about 90 miles off the coast of Galveston carrying 22 people. The coast guard has called off it's attempt to rescue them for now due to 50 foot waves and heavy wind.

This immediately reminded me of ...

http://www.solarnavigator.net/films_movies_actors/actors_films_images/perfect_storm_big_wave.jpg

[nate]

LOL. I'm watching Fox News and Geraldo Rivera is reporting live from Glaveston. Just as he began talking a huge wave swept him from his feet and knocked him to the ground. Funny stuff. He jumped up and proclaimed himself the new star of Youtube.

Maybe his 'stache can hold back the storm surge?

[HotCorner]

LOL. I'm watching Fox News and Geraldo Rivera is reporting live from Glaveston. Just as he began talking a huge wave swept him from his feet and knocked him to the ground. Funny stuff. He jumped up and proclaimed himself the new star of Youtube.

Maybe it will take him out to sea?

[SunDeck]

As for ships, I have always heard the head out to sea to ride out hurricanes. Is this true?

[MrCinatit]

As for ships, I have always heard the head out to sea to ride out hurricanes. Is this true?

I heard this once, as well, and I believe the thinking is that it is a lot safer to take the winds and the waves out in the open sea than it is to risk being slammed into the shore, the dock, rocks, other boats, houses and what have you.
Makes sense - but I am not sure if it is true.

[OnBaseMachine]

Just heard that the Coast Guard is attempting to rescue 150 people from rising waters in Galveston.

[HotCorner]

This is a cool use of technology ...

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

[HotCorner]

Point of contention.

A reporter was interviewing a resident riding out the storm. He explained that "why run when mother nature will just follow you. You can't hide" on his decision to stay.

The reporter then says "you're deciding to brave it out?"

Brave it out? It's moronic rather than brave.

[Chip R]

Point of contention.

A reporter was interviewing a resident riding out the storm. He explained that "why run when mother nature will just follow you. You can't hide" on his decision to stay.

The reporter then says "you're deciding to brave it out?"

Brave it out? It's moronic rather than brave.


Moronic isn't a verb. ;)

[OnBaseMachine]

Geraldo Rivera getting wiped out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLZ7lK7-G_A

[OnBaseMachine]

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/US/weather/09/12/hurricane.ike.texas/t1wide.burn.ap.jpg
Fire destroys homes on Galveston Island, Texas, today as Ike-spawned floodwaters surge around them. (AP Photo)

[Matt700wlw]

This one could be pretty nasty.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike's wind speeds have strengthened to 110 mph, which is the strongest Cat. 2 possible. Cat. 3 winds are 111-130.

[OnBaseMachine]

I just saw a report of 13 people being trapped on the roof of a home near Galveston. It's amazing the problems this storm is causing despite being hours and hours away from landfall.

[deltachi8]

Starting to get some TS winds now at the house. Was outside until nightfall watching the clouds. Getting hunkered down now for a long night.

[SandyD]

deltachi, this may sound silly, but stay away from the windows.

These storms can be mesmerizing to watch, seriously, but you never know when something can come flying thru. Is your house boarded up?

[deltachi8]

We are away from the windows and inside now. No boarding - we will hope for the best. Interesting as we drove around the neighborhood today in that we only noticed a very few people boarding windows up.

I think because this neighborhood is mostly newer builds (the last 2-3 years) and we are about an hour inland most people don't have the boarding up drill down yet. That may change after this one.

[OnBaseMachine]

It looks like Galveston is taking a pounding right now. Official landfall appears to be around three hours away or so.

[OnBaseMachine]

Breaking news on CNN that there is a reported levee failure in the New Orleans area.

[OnBaseMachine]

According to the Times-Picayune it's a levee near Slidell and repairs are underway.

[SandyD]

They're probably talking about Lafitte. There was a failure of a temporary levee there, but that area should be evacuated.

Lafitte is on the westbank, is low-lying, and surrounded by water.

[OnBaseMachine]

Forecasters now expect Ike to make landfall as a Cat. 3. There's not much of a difference between 110 and 115 mph.

[deltachi8]

Rain just starting now....

[SandyD]

hang tight, deltachi

[OnBaseMachine]

The water is now completely over the Galveston sea walls and they are expecting another six+ feet of water.

[deltachi8]

hang tight, deltachi

will do - thanks for hangin in there with us - helps to hear from someone who has been through this before.

[OnBaseMachine]

CNN and Fox are reporting Cat. 4 winds at building height.

[OnBaseMachine]

The eye is about an hour or hour and a half from making landfall.

[SandyD]

waiting is the worst. not knowing what this storm will bring. sleep when you can, but in shifts. You will need your energy tomorrow.

Keep a radio tuned to the local emergency station. the wwl of houston. not sure what station that will be. pay attention to tornado warnings. If the eye passes directly over you, be cautious going outside. Do NOT get caught outside by the eye wall.

If you're out of the way of the storm surge, your greatest risk is spawned tornados, flying debris, and trees falling on your house.

[HeatherC1212]

This sounds just awful. I can't believe people didn't evacuate. :eek: Please be safe everyone who is in the middle of this mess and let us know how you're doing when you get a chance. :(

[Unassisted]

Keep a radio tuned to the local emergency station. the wwl of houston. not sure what station that will be.
KTRH 740 AM seems to be providing good coverage. XM is carrying their feed sometimes on the emergency alert channel today.

[OnBaseMachine]

NHC now says official landfall is still two or three hours away.

[OnBaseMachine]

Fire fighters left three buildings to burn Galveston because water was too high for fire trucks to reach them. But there was some good news: a stranded freighter with 22 men aboard made it through the brunt of the storm safely, and a tugboat was on the way to save them.

http://www.galvnews.com/wire.lasso?report=/dynamic/stories/I/IKE

[OnBaseMachine]

It looks like Houston is starting to get pounded. Hopefully our Redszoners from that area are making it through OK. The eye is starting move over Galveston but they don't count official landfall until the center of the eye moves over land.

[SandyD]

My sister's family is ok. They have a tree down, but it didn't hit the house. I don't have details, like what other damages they might have, but they're ok, which is the most important thing.

[RBA]

Look out Ohio. The remnants of Ike will be hooking up with a front and will be in your area by tomorrow. Big rain maker.

[OnBaseMachine]

A night on Galveston Island
Wunderground member CycloneBoz rode out Ike in a parking garage in Galveston. Here's his report from this morning:

This is CycloneBoz, live from the southern eyewall of Hurricane Ike.

What a storm! My wind gauge read 110 mph

In the car, I'm being bucked like riding a bronco! Easily, winds now still over 100 mph!

I'm on the 2nd floor of the Hotel Galvez parking garage. I have shot some incredible video. I'm chomping at the bit to edit it...and I think I'm going to have time to do that here...because no one is going to get off this island anytime soon.

The surge was an east to west event at midnight. Now, the surge is a west to east event. Flooding everywhere. Multiple fires! There was even a fire out at sea on one of the piers in front of the garage during the first part of the storm.

Massive destruction. Surprisingly, though, a lot of the houses are keeping their roofs! But the people inside are sure worried!

I yelled across the street during the incredible eye event to a lady whose first floor was flooded. Everyone there was okay, but I could tell she was crying. She was scared to death.

As my car rocks wildly as I sit beneath tons of concrete, I have to admit......I'm a bit on edge myself.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[OnBaseMachine]

The Houston Texans will not be playing their home opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night at Reliant Stadium.

The game was supposed to have been played at 7:30 p.m., but Hurricane Ike has caused damage to the stadium that has made it unsuitable for hosting the game.

"The facility will not be usable," said Shey Guinn, president of SMG, the company that manages Reliant Park.

"There's some structural damage to the roof. Part of it is off," Guinn said.

"There's also some other damage on the property caused by wind and water. We're in the process of assessing the damage," he said. "As far as the game being postponed again or played, that will be up to the NFL."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5999358.html

[Chip R]

Can't they just use the Astrodome?

[RBA]

The Houston Texans will not be playing their home opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night at Reliant Stadium.

The game was supposed to have been played at 7:30 p.m., but Hurricane Ike has caused damage to the stadium that has made it unsuitable for hosting the game.

"The facility will not be usable," said Shey Guinn, president of SMG, the company that manages Reliant Park.

"There's some structural damage to the roof. Part of it is off," Guinn said.

"There's also some other damage on the property caused by wind and water. We're in the process of assessing the damage," he said. "As far as the game being postponed again or played, that will be up to the NFL."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/5999358.html


Not very reliant, if you can't rely on it.

[SandyD]

southbound lanes of the freeway near galveston; from chron.com

http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/12/13006001/600xPopupGallery.jpg

[SandyD]

also from chron.com
that's the memorial to the 1900 hurricane victims

http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/12/13003386/600xPopupGallery.jpg

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike's damage
In it's wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $3.4 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $27 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. So far, the death toll from Ike has been remarkably low, considering the level of damage this storm inflicted. Let's hope it stays this way.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1085&tstamp=200809

[SandyD]

on a lighter note:


Marines may start hunting storms
Top U.S. Air Force brass may face tough questions at an upcoming Senate Armed Services Committee, after the Air Force’s “Hurricane Hunters” failed to destroy Hurricane Gustav.

“I just don’t see a whole lot of ‘hunting’ going on here,” said chairman Carl Levin (D-Mich.). “It seems like all they do is go up there and fly around for a few hours. Why aren’t they using their missiles?”

Based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Miss., the 10 WC-130J aircraft have never successfully “hunted” a named storm, despite flying through the eye-walls of these systems since 1944.

The perceived failure of the Hurricane Hunting program has led some Pentagon insiders to question whether the duty of annihilating tropical weather systems might be better handled by another branch of the military.

“Just let me send my Marines in there,” begged Maj. Gen. Neil Fredricks. “Hurricane Gustav would be Hurricane Goodbye!”


(from the New Orleans Levee, a monthly satirical newspaper started after Katrina)

http://www.nolevee.com/images/phpThumb.php?src=articles/LEAKnewNewOrleansWEB600.jpg&q=95&h=0&w=600

[SandyD]

Heard from my sister:

When she woke up this morning, the water level was all the way up to her house, but it didn't come in. Seems to be going down now, tho.

She's still without power, and without water.

She's thinking about going to my brother's in Dallas for a few days.

[Reds Fanatic]

The remnants of Ike went through Ohio today and nearly 700,000 in the Cincinnati area and 100,000 in the Dayton area are without power tonight. It could be days before everyone in this area gets power back according to the news.

[deltachi8]

just a quick note from my cell as power is out here. we made it through ike safe and sound. the eye passes right over us at 5 am. quite the interesting experience was walking outside during the eye. so peaceful...then it all started again.

some neighbors have fairly significant damage. we were amazingly lucky...just some slight damage to our fence.

will check back when the power comes back.

[SandyD]

thanks for checking in, deltachi. Hang in there with the power out

[SandyD]

The remnants of Ike went through Ohio today and nearly 700,000 in the Cincinnati area and 100,000 in the Dayton area are without power tonight. It could be days before everyone in this area gets power back according to the news.

Hope it's not that long.

[LoganBuck]

Hope it's not that long.

From the sounds of the news we have as much damage in the area as if a large ice storm had come through. My guess is that it will take days. The news mentioned a call has been put out to crews from the Carolinas to come up and help restore power.

[SandyD]

You know, there were crews from Cleveland here helping in Baton Rouge after Gustav. They said while they'd have power restored to customers, but they expected to be there for months finishing off the work.

Houston has people coming in from as far away as California, that I know of.

It's kind of crazy.

My power went off during the night last night, but it just came back on.

[Unassisted]

Can't they just use the Astrodome?I think I've heard that the Astrodome is a church now. It isn't public property.

[Reds Fanatic]

From the sounds of the news we have as much damage in the area as if a large ice storm had come through. My guess is that it will take days. The news mentioned a call has been put out to crews from the Carolinas to come up and help restore power.

I heard some of the local crews were already in Houston or on the way to Houston to help with their power problems and now they are trying to get them back to help with the power problems in the Cincinnati area.

[OnBaseMachine]

I heard on the news yesterday that Cincinnati received hurricane force winds from Ike. That's something. Here in West Virginia we got some decent wind gusts maybe in the 30 mph area but nothing like Cincy received.

[OnBaseMachine]

Ike hammers the Midwest; fate of those on Bolivar Peninsula still unknown

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:47 AM EDT on September 15, 2008
Ike caused plenty of trouble Sunday over the Midwest. High winds near Cincinnati killed one person and caused about 1.3 million people to lose power in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. A Delta Airlines hangar at the Cincinnati airport lost its roof, and the airport control tower had to be evacuated. Flooding and high winds in Missouri and Illinois caused at least two storm-related deaths. Ike surprised Louisville, Kentucky, with sustained winds of 40 mph with a gust to hurricane force, 75 mph, at 1:56 pm CDT. Ike swept into western New York early this morning, knocking out power to 45,000 people and doing about $100 million in damage.

Part of the destruction wrought in the Midwest and Northeast was also due to the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Lowell. Lowell hit Mexico's Baja Peninsula earlier in the week, and the moisture from the storm flowed northeastward up the axis of a cold front sweeping across the U.S. This same cold front also absorbed Ike. Some peak wind gusts observed yesterday from Ike:

Louisville, KY 75 MPH
Covington, KY 74 MPH
Huntingburg, IN 67 MPH
Fort Knox, KY 64 MPH
Owensboro, KY 63 MPH
Walnut Ridge, AR 62 MPH
Popular Bluff, MO 61 MPH
Cincinnati/Lunkin, OH 61 MPH

Some peak storm rainfall totals for various states, as of 10 PM CDT on Sunday:

Houston, TX: 15.75"
Glenmore, LA: 7.62"
Clinto, AR: 8.93"
Maize, KS: 11.44:
Fairview, KS: 11.83"
Oakland Mills, IA: 7.60"
Peotone, IL: 10.40"
Portage, IN: 11.46"
South Haven, MI: 6.68"
Mill Creek, OH: 7.08"
Murrysville, PA: 5.41"
Genoa City, WI: 3.25"
Falls City, NE: 3.39"

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1086&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

The Bolivar Peninsula
If you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike's eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike's highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 15 feet or higher. Photos taken by the Coast Guard yesterday (Figure 2) of the Bolivar Peninsula show damage characteristic of a 15+ foot high storm surge--homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. The hurricane probably cut new channels through the peninsula, and it will be difficult for rescuers to reach the area.

Some have criticized the National Weather Service for overwarning, with their pronouncement of "certain death" for those who ignored evacuation orders. Well, I don't think anyone in the Bolivar Peninsula will complain that they were overwarned. While death was not certain among those who weathered the storm in houses pulverized by the storm surge, it was probable. According to the New York Times, one Bolivar Peninsula resident was washed all the way across across Galveston Bay to the mainland after the storm surge destroyed his house and threw him into the water. A helicopter picked him up. So far, there are two confimed deaths on the peninsula, from the town of Port Bolivar. The peninsula had a population of 3,800, of which 500 did not evacuate. As many as 90 people were rescued from the peninsula in the hours leading up to the storm, but at least 400 people remained. Most of these people are as yet unaccounted for. According to news reports, 80% of the buildings on the peninsula were destroyed.

The moral: we don't know precisely where a hurricane will hit, which necessitates dire warnings for portions of the coast that will not receive the worst of the storm. The worst of a hurricane affects only a relatively narrow portion of the coast. And the worst of Hurricane Ike--the third most damaging hurricane of all time--was very, very bad indeed.

Louisiana
Hurricane Ike hit Louisiana very hard. The entire coast of Louisiana from Grand Isle at the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Texas border received a storm surge between 5 and 13 feet. In many cases, such as in Lake Charles, the flood heights were higher than those of Hurricane Rita in 2005. Terrebonne Parish in central Louisiana, which took a direct hit from Gustav but did not get flooded by that storm, got a 5-8 foot storm surge from Ike. The surge flooded over 13,000 homes and killed at least two people in the parish.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1086&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

One middle-aged man was washed from his home on Crystal Beach all the way to the mainland, where he was spotted by National Guard troops in a helicopter and picked up.

“That’s the only miracle we’ve had so far,” said the Chambers County sheriff, Joe LaRive. “When the water picked up his house, he floated out a window and hung onto a piece of wood all night long, and he saw fish and alligators and fire ants.” The man was treated and released from a nearby hospital, Sheriff LaRive said.

Randy Faulkner, a volunteer firefighter on Crystal Beach and a member of the Gulf Coast Search and Recovery team, said Bolivar had been all but forgotten even though it had received the brunt of the storm surge. “There’s a lot of devastation in Galveston, don’t get me wrong,” Mr. Faulkner said. “But the peninsula, it’s gone.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/us/15scene.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[Reds Fanatic]

This is the latest update from the Dayton area 225,000 customers still without power that is not even counting the much larger number without power in the Cincinnati area.


http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/09/15/ddn091508powerweb.html


Dayton Power & Light is giving a new estimate of area customers who are without power — 225,000 people total.

DP&L spokeswoman Mary Beth Weaver gave the number at about 11:15 a.m. Monday, Sept. 15. She said the new number was determined as crews assessed damage after daylight arrived.

"We discovered a lot more damage and destruction and a lot more lines down," Weaver said.

The previous number was 180,000 people without power. The new number is just over half of DP&L's customers in this region, Weaver said.

The southern part of the DP&L service area — including Montgomery, Greene and Preble counties — were hardest hit, Weaver said. She could not give a county-by-county rundown of how many residents were dealing with outages.

She said DP&L contractors who had been sent to Texas to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Ike have been recalled to the Dayton area. As well, utilities crews from Oklahoma and Virginia are on their way to the area, Weaver said.

The difficulty for Dayton's electric power service provider was not just the power of Sunday's severe winds — which knocked down more than 50 transmission poles, said DP&L spokeswoman Tom Tatham — but how widespread that damage was, stretching from the Cincinnati area north to Shelby County and beyond.

"I've been here 23 years, and it's the worst I've ever seen," Tatham said earlier Monday morning.

DP&L's Web site is cautioning its customers that restoration would take "multiple days."

"DP&L is working around the clock," a message on the company's Web site said Monday. "This will be a multiple-day restoration effort. Please plan accordingly."

He said DP&L said has been working with area hospitals "all night" to ensure their power. He said all hospitals have back-up generators in any case, but he believed all metro-area hospitals were back on DP&L service by 9:30 a.m.

After hospitals, the priority for DP&L crews are water-pumping stations and water services, Tatham said. Then, the provider's high-voltage transmission and distribution system, which brings power in from power plants to substations to feeder circuits, is also a high priority, he said.

"We have more than 50 transmission poles that are down," he said.

He cautioned residents to assume that downed lines are electric, alive and energized. People should stay away from them, he urged.

He also said that if customers are using portable generations, they should take precautions, such as ensuring proper ventilation for the generators.

The Web site for Duke Energy, which provides power from Greater Cincinnati to the Montgomery-Warren counties line in the Springboro and Franklin areas, said it had seven Montgomery County customers without power.

Duke's site said it has 52,901 Warren County residents without power, down from 66,129 who had lost power since 10:41 a.m. Sunday. In Butler County, 110,126 residents were powerless, down from 138,733 who had lost power sometime since shortly before 11 a.m. Sunday.


Cable television

Time Warner Cable crews will work to restore service to affected Dayton-area customers by following Dayton Power & Light crews as they restore service in the area, said Pam McDonald, a spokeswoman for Time Warner's Cincinnati office.

"Obviously, that's our service area, too. We've got thousands of customers who are currently without service," McDonald said shortly before 11 a.m. Monday Sept. 15.

She cautioned that once power is restored, there may be a lag to restoration of cable service, depending on damage to cable lines and infrastructure around homes. She said there is no way to predict when all cable customers will once again see service.

"This is life-altering," McDonald said of Sunday's massive wind storm.


Gas service

However, there was no interruption to natural gas service to some 318,000 Vectren customers in the Dayton area, said Chase Kelley, a spokeswoman for Evansville, Ind.-based Vectren.

"Gas leak-wise, it looks pretty good," Kelley said.


Hospitals have power

Local hospitals reported being on regular power Monday morning, Sept. 15, following a stormy day of power outages, temporary switches to generators and crowded emergency rooms.

Dayton Power & Light restored regular power at Greene Memorial Hospital on Sunday, said Michelle Perry, spokeswoman for Greene Memorial Hospital in Xenia.

The hospital also opened its east wing for nearby residents who needed power for medical needs, such as oxygen and medicine that requires refrigeration, she said.

Children's Medical Center of Dayton is "fully operational," spokeswoman Betsy Woods said. But due to power outages and wind damage, its Springboro Testing Center, Beavercreek Testing Center and Urgent Care South at Lamplighter Square in Kettering are closed Monday.

Other health facilities closed today because of storm damage or power issues are the Dr. Charles Drew Health Center, 1323 W. Third St., and the Child Health Clinic at the Southview Child-Family Center, 25 Thorpe Drive in Dayton.

On Monday, Good Samaritan Hospital, Kettering Medical Center and Southview Hospital have power on Monday.

Miami Valley South Health Center in Centerville remained on emergency generators Monday, spokeswoman Nancy Thickel said. The generators should be able to sustain the center "for days" and patient services will go on without disruption, she said.

Thickel said Miami Valley Hospital in Dayton never lost power, but saw several patients with storm related injuries. The hospital also accepted patients from other hospitals who needed CAT scans, she said. Generators don't produce adequate energy to power the machines, she said.

[OnBaseMachine]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKwMiExUKXg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nx7-8Rv62LU

[Unassisted]

Excellent slideshow of Ike images here (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html).

[OnBaseMachine]

Excellent slideshow of Ike images here (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html).

Wow. Did you see that photo of Gilchrist? That whole town is wiped out. There's simply nothing left but a single house.

[SandyD]

from houston chronicle website

http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/15/13042119/600xPopupGallery.jpg

[Redhook]

I just got my power back on at 5 AM this morning. It was out for almost 2 full days. I live in the Sharonville area. The winds Sunday reached 84 mph in some parts of Cinci. Pretty amazing. My fence blew down. I used to live in Orlando and sat through 2 hurricanes down there. It was similar here, without the rain.

[MrCinatit]

We had gusts of probably around 60 on Sunday in Piqua in Ohio - the power went off a couple of time very, very, very briefly - but that was enough to shut off the cable for about a day.
There were some times when I could hear the foundation of this 200-year-old house creaking mightily - yet, still, I cannot imagine being ashore when one of those things hits the coast. That was a very though storm.

[SunDeck]

I was in Cincinnati Sunday. Those winds were definitely as strong as the ones I have experienced during a hurricane, although only in short bursts. We stood on my parents' deck and watched shingles from their house getting ripped up, flying across the street. They are up on a hill, over the river and I'm guessing they had the same wind gusts measured at the airport, which is directly south of them.

[cumberlandreds]

Excellent slideshow of Ike images here (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html).

Those are amazing pictures! Those of the caskets that had been upheaved from the graves was erry looking. :yikes:

[OnBaseMachine]

Atlantic hurricane outlook for the last half of September
Well, we've just come out of a long and intense period of hurricane activity--29 straight days with a named storm in the Atlantic, with all four of these storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--causing heavy damage and inflicting high death tolls. The last time we had such an active period was in 2005, when we went 56 straight days from August 2 to September 26 with a named storm in the Atlantic. Katrina, Ophelia, and Rita all made landfall during that period. Fortunately, even the busiest hurricane seasons take a breather. We had a 4-day break in 2005 at the end of September. This year, we look to get a longer break of 7-10 days.

Climatologically, the last half of September is one of the busiest periods in the Atlantic for hurricane activity. The peak of the season occurs on September 10, and the entire month of September is very active, with a high chance of dangerous major hurricanes (Figure 2). Sea Surface temperatures and oceanic heat content are at their peak right now, and have not begun to cool yet. Wind shear is near average or a little below average over most of the tropical Atlantic, and is forecast to remain so for the next two weeks. The peak portion of hurricane season lasts until mid-October, and I anticipate that we have at least one more major hurricane coming, and probably 4-5 more named storms.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1087&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

A before and after picture of Crystal Beach, Texas:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/crystalbeach.jpg

[HeatherC1212]

I have power at work but didn't have power at home when I left around 8 AM this morning and have no clue if it's back on or not yet. I hope that we get power back soon because three days of no power is driving us a little stir crazy. :( Thankfully we only have damage to our backyard fence and no damage to our condo. Those winds were something else on Sunday! There were trees completely uprooted in my condo complex and one of them landed on one of my neighbor's car. The city really did experience a taste of a hurricane only without the rain and flooding. :eek: I can't believe how many people are still without power in the city today but hopefully they get more folks up soon. Most of my coworkers are starting to get their power back so I hope we're next in line.

[klw]

OBM- I see you are a fan of Dr. Masters' blog as well.

[OnBaseMachine]

OBM- I see you are a fan of Dr. Masters' blog as well.

Yep. He's usually got some good info on there.

[HotCorner]

I got word that our power is back on! :pray: At a little under 48 hours without power, I've never appreciated electricity more. :)

[OnBaseMachine]

The destruction of Gilchrist
Many of you have probably seen the photo of Gilchrist, Texas showing complete destruction of the town of 750 people, save for one lone home. High-resolution satellite imagery made available by NOAA's National Geodetic Survey (Figure 1) confirm that of the approximately 1000 structures existing in the town before Hurricane Ike, only about five survived the hurricane. Approximately 200 of these buildings were homes, and it is thought that some of the residents attempted to ride out the storm in their homes. According to media reports, about 34 survivors from Gilchrist and the neighboring communities of Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar have been fished out of Galveston Bay in the past few days. Rescuers who have reached Gilchrist have not been able to find any victims in the debris because there is no debris. Ike's storm surge knocked 99.5% of the 1,000 buildings in Gilchrist off their foundations and either demolished them or washed them miles inland into the swamplands behind Gilchrist. Until search teams can locate the debris of what was once was Gilchrist, we will not know the fate of those who may have stayed behind to ride out the storm.

Why did Gilchrist get destroyed?
It's rare to see a town so completely destroyed by a hurricane, to the point where you can't even see the wreckage. The neighboring towns of Crystal Beach, to the south, and High Island, to the north, were also mostly destroyed, but weren't swept clean of nearly all structures and wreckage. This is because Gilchrist was built in an unusually vulnerable place. It's bad enough to situate your town on a low-lying peninsula, as was the case for Crystal Beach. But in Gilchrist's case, the town was located at the narrowest point of the Bolivar Peninsula, at a point where it was only a few hundred meters wide (Figure 2). Not only did Gilchrist suffer a head-on assault by Ike's direct storm surge of 14+ feet, topped by 20' high battering waves, the town also suffered a reverse surge once the hurricane had passed. As Ike moved to the north, the counter-clockwise flow of wind around the storm pushed Galveston Bay's waters back across the town of Gilchrist from northwest to southeast. This second surge of water likely finished off anything the main storm surge had left.

Will Gilchrist be rebuilt?
I hope the government will see fit to buy up the land that was once the town of Gilchrist and make it into a park. Building a town in Gilchrist's location makes as much sense as building a town on the sides of an active volcano. (Unfortunately, there are plenty of people who have done just that, such as on the slopes of Vesuvius in Italy). If past history is any guide, Gilchrist will be rebuilt, and it will take another mighty hurricane to permanently take down the town. That was the case for the town of Indianola, Texas, which lay in a vulnerable low-lying location on the shores of Matagorda Bay in the mid-1800's. Indianola was the second largest port in the state of Texas, and home to 5,000 people. In 1875, a powerful Category 3 hurricane piled up a huge storm surge as it came ashore in Indianola. The surge destroyed 3/4 of the town's 2,000 buildings, and killed 176 people. The city was rebuilt, but in 1886, a devastating Category 4 hurricane swept almost the entire town of Indianola into Matagorda Bay, killing another 250 townspeople. The people of Indianola finally gave up and moved elsewhere, and the ruins of their town now lie under fifteen feet of water in Matagorda Bay.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1088&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

Caribbean disturbance 93L slowly organizing

Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:20 AM EDT on September 20, 2008
Tropical disturbance 93L is slowly getting more organized. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has moved closer to the center and has increased in recent hours. However, there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation on satellite images or from last night's QuikSCAT pass. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate level, about 15 knots, and some additional slow organization of 93L appears likely today.

Wind shear is forecast to remain 10-20 knots over the next five days, and four of the six reliable forecast models now predict that 93L will develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. This development is forecast to happen near the southeastern Bahamas. The NHC is giving 93L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. I give a 60% chance that 93L will eventually develop into a tropical depression.

Expect heavy rains of 3-6" to affect Puerto Rico tonight through Sunday. On Sunday, heavy rain will spread to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, potentially causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. The southeastern Bahamas can expect rains from 93L beginning on Monday night.

Possible development off the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity emerged from the coast yesterday. The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. However, the system is too close to the Equator to develop very quickly.

Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about six days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1092&tstamp=200809

[OnBaseMachine]

Here's a picture of Lake Conroe, Texas, which is where Adam Dunn currently resides.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/b/bighut/80.jpg

[deltachi8]

Still awaiting power here at our home. My son's school starts up Thursday, which is a good thing - i actually think he misses it.

[SandyD]

My sister's still out of power as well. Her kids started back to school today (pre-k) at esperanza. I hear they're using a generator.

[OnBaseMachine]

Tropical Storm Kyle has developed.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL1108W5_sm2+gif/203152W_sm.gif