PDA

View Full Version : camisadelgolf (the Rickey Henderson of RedsZone?) Looks at 2009



camisadelgolf
09-02-2008, 03:32 AM
For the 2009 roster, here is what I, camisadelgolf, have in store:

If Ryan Hanigan and Wilkin Castillo don't pan out, the every-day catcher could once again be a Paul Bako-type black hole. Both Hanigan and Castillo could be optioned next year, so I might sign Johnny Estrada or Michael Barrett if the price is right. However, catcher is such a big need across the Majors, so I'd probably stand pat.

The Reds need outfielders. For me, this should be priority number one in the off season, and here are some players I would consider:

Starting left fielder:
Juan Rivera - I'd love to see what he could do in GABP; he's very toolsy, and I think he'd be a perfect match for the Reds
Milton Bradley - everyone hates to admit, but he's really, really good (when he's on the field); I'd sign him if the numbers are right (i.e. no more than a two-year contract)
Garrett Anderson - obviously on the decline but continues to produce; he's an injury risk, but maybe he could be signed to an affordable, one-year contract
Fernando Tatis - is 2008 a fluke? if not, the 1999 Fernando Tatis would be a monster in the Reds' lineup
Raul Ibanez - his age worries me, but his numbers have been good; he's certainly someone to consider, though
Manny Ramirez - there's no way I look to the Reds to obtain this guy, but if the Reds do obtain him, they will immediately become competitors
Mark Teixeira - if the Reds can sign him, this would push Joey Votto to left field; once again, the Reds have the salary room (if they decline Arroyo's option when it comes around), and it would immediately turn the Reds into competitors

Bench outfielder, if none of the above can be obtained (but say 'goodbye' to competing in 2009 and 'hello' to looking forward to 2010:
Kevin Mench - he's who I would want as the first outfield option off the bench; I'm fine with Norris Hopper only as the second outfielder off the bench
Craig Monroe - might like to put his career back on track in a hitter's park; a right-handed power bat is needed for the bench, and Adam Rosales might not be ready yet
Brad Wilkerson - he really knows how to work the count, has local ties, and before this year, he was consistently slugging around .450; if his swing hasn't slowed down too much, I'd like to see him in a Reds uniform
Greg Norton - is a switch-hitter, can also play third base (albeit poorly), and has a little pop in his bat
Emil Brown - see: Kevin Mench; unfortunately, he probably thinks he's worthy of being a starting left fielder somewhere
Jay Payton - personally, I'm not a fan, but maybe the Reds will be desperate enough; he shouldn't be too bad as a bench player
Gabe Kapler - the Reds already have Norris Hopper, so I see him as irrelevant, but maybe he can be brought in at a discount

The Reds' need for a fifth starter is exaggerated, especially with Micah Owings coming over after the season. Hopefully, between Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, and Matt Maloney, one of those guys is ready to produce at the Major League level if needed. And who knows? Maybe Nick Masset or Ramon Ramirez could be an effective starter. I'm ready to cut bait with Matt Belisle and Bobby Livingston, though. If the Reds look to free agency, the starting pitching options would probably be way too old and way too over-priced anyway. Then again, a heck of a lot of money was freed up by not re-signing Dunn and Griffey, and the Reds could really use a left-handed starter. The Reds have a reputation for stealing big-name free agents from the Brewers . . . Hey, a man can dream, can't he?

As good as the bullpen has been this year, a lot of that production has come from Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Lincoln, both of whom I'm not expecting back next year. The Reds could replace them both internally, which I hope they do, because the free agent market for relievers is absolutely pathetic.

A lineup I could be happy with:
CF Dickerson/Freel (a platoon I could live with, especially with Dusty Baker as manager)
1B Votto
LF ???????
RF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
2B Phillips
SS Gonzalez
C Hanigan


Bench:
C Wilkin Castillo (could theoretically be one of the best backup shortstops in baseball)
IF Jeff Keppinger (utility infielder, not an every-day shortstop)
IF Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, or Danny Richar (because he's left-handed)
OF Chris Dickerson/Ryan Freel (platoon)
OF Norris Hopper or Shaun Cumberland (probably not ready but underrated as a prospect)

SP Edinson Volquez
SP Aaron Harang
SP Johnny Cueto
SP Bronson Arroyo
SP Micah Owings, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, or Matt Maloney

Wow, when was the last time the Reds had a rotation featuring 1-5 starters in the appropriate slots?

CL Francisco Cordero
RP Jared Burton
RP Bill Bray
Three of the following relief pitchers: Matt Belisle, Ramon Ramirez, Danny Herrera, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, Ty Pelland, Robert Manuel
MU Nick Masset

Compared to the rest of the league, that wouldn't be all that bad of a bullpen.

RedEye
09-02-2008, 09:23 AM
Thanks for the analysis. I think this just reinforces the fact that the FA crop this year is pretty old, declining, and expensive. Other than Teixeira, there really isn't anyone on this list I'd like the Reds to sign. I suppose Bradley would be alright, as long as the contract isn't too expensive or long-term (good luck with that). Anyway, I'm wishing more and more that they had signed Dunn to a LTC after considering these other options.

Almost makes the most sense to sign Sabathia if they are set on dropping a lot of cash on a FA. Even if they overspend on him, it will still be a better deal to get a young, durable pitcher than an aging, overrated OF.

Are you Ricky Henderson because you posted this fast?

RichRed
09-02-2008, 09:27 AM
Are you Ricky Henderson because you posted this fast?

RichRed thinks it's because camisadelgolf referred to himself in the third person.

RedEye
09-02-2008, 09:31 AM
RichRed thinks it's because camisadelgolf referred to himself in the third person.

Could also be the Bob Dole of RedsZone, I suppose.

nate
09-02-2008, 09:31 AM
nate still likes Tex but there needs to be more of a team around him in order to go for the gold.

PuffyPig
09-02-2008, 09:32 AM
Anyway, I'm wishing more and more that they had signed Dunn to a LTC after considering these other options.



Not if Arroyo is correct and Dunn wanted $20M over many years to sign.

chicoruiz
09-02-2008, 09:57 AM
Chico likes Rivera, but Chico thinks we need a CF, because if Chico sees a certain person in CF in 2009, Chico is going to hurl.

And Chico wonders about SS, too...

*BaseClogger*
09-02-2008, 10:53 AM
Chico likes Rivera, but Chico thinks we need a CF, because if Chico sees a certain person in CF in 2009, Chico is going to hurl.

BaseClogger wants to see Dickerson back in CF in 2009. BaseClogger likes the idea of Brad Wilkerson as pop off the bench. Also, BaseClogger still has hope that Adam Dunn would be willing to return and fill the hole in LF...

camisadelgolf
09-02-2008, 11:05 AM
Chico likes Rivera, but Chico thinks we need a CF, because if Chico sees a certain person in CF in 2009, Chico is going to hurl.

And Chico wonders about SS, too...

Who are you worried about seeing in center field next year? If it's CPat, I wouldn't worry about it. There's no way Jocketty is that dumb.

And the shortstop concerns are legitimate. I wonder about that, too. If AGon can't stay on the field, the Reds are stuck with Paul Janish and Jeff Keppinger at shortstop. One can't hit, and the other has no range. This makes me think of something interesting . . .

Could the Reds be serious players for Rafael Furcal? Like Wilkin Castillo, Edwin Encarnacion, Danny Richar, Francisco Cordero, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, and many others in the organization, Furcal comes from the Dominican Republic, and that could make the Reds attractive.

Sure, Furcal just turned 31 years old, which probably means he's exiting his prime, but who in the organization is going to play shortstop over the next few years? Shortstop is a defense-first position, and over the past several years, Furcal has been one of the leaders in range factor (#2 in 2007, #1 in 2006, #1 in 2005). And if you're more concerned about his offense, he showed earlier this year that he can still hit. He crushed the ball this year and has been producing very well despite spending all his time in pitcher's ballparks. He's still getting on base at a good rate (.352 career OBP), his slugging is respectable (.412 for his career), he's stealing bases, and he's been very consistent.

The only pure shortstop in the system who looks like he could be worthy of starting down the line is Zack Cozart, who is probably at least three years away from reaching the Major Leagues. Alex Gonzalez is most likely not the answer for 2010, and the 2010 free agent shortstop class won't have anyone nearly as good as Rafael Furcal.

The only real concern with Furcal is his health. He has had leg problems, and he had a bulging disc that was operated on, which has kept him out for a while. Soon, we should see how well he has recovered, though. If he plays like he has been playing the past few years, I would put in a serious effort to pursue the guy.

This could be a very good lineup:
SS Rafael Furcal (gets on base; good speed)
1B Joey Votto (gets on base; good power)
3B Edwin Encarnacion (gets on base; good power)
RF Jay Bruce (very good, developing power)
LF Juan Rivera (fairly low OBP but can drive runners in on the occasions Bruce doesn't)
2B Brandon Phillips (another guy with a fairly low OBP but can drive runners in)
CF Ryan Freel/Chris Dickerson (both get on base at good rates and have very good speed)
C Ryan Hanigan (very good OBP; perfect for getting a runner over or driving a speedy runner in with a bloop single)

It's not a lineup that has one guy who stands out and intimidates the other pitcher, but 1-8, there are guys who you can expect to OPS at least .750, and up to five of them could realistically hit 30+ homeruns.

lollipopcurve
09-02-2008, 11:09 AM
Fernando Tatis could be a nice option.

camisadelgolf
09-02-2008, 11:13 AM
Fernando Tatis could be a nice option.

He's also from the Dominican Republic. ;)

The concern is that he's 34 years old next year, and aside from one amazing year, he hasn't been particularly impressive. He also has health issues. With that said, I'd say he's certainly worthy of consideration.

*BaseClogger*
09-02-2008, 11:22 AM
Another route is to move either EE or Votto to LF and target FA's or trade acquisitions. BaseClogger especially wonders if Adam LaRoche would be available in the right trade with the Pirates...

lollipopcurve
09-02-2008, 11:27 AM
The concern is that he's 34 years old next year, and aside from one amazing year, he hasn't been particularly impressive. He also has health issues. With that said, I'd say he's certainly worthy of consideration.

He's played well for the Mets this year. It can happen that a guy near the end of his career will have a renaissance -- and if Tatis is over whatever health issues he had, the missed time could mean he's got more tread on the tires than most 34 year olds. Jocketty knows him well from St. Louis, too.

OnBaseMachine
09-02-2008, 11:27 AM
If the Reds plan on moving EdE then I'd like to see them acquire Adrian Beltre in the offseason if he can be had for a decent price. He's a very good defensive third baseman and has good power that could spike in the GABP. Next year is his contract year and we all remember what he did last time in his contract season. I'm an EdE fan but if they could get a guy like Jonathan Sanchez for him, I'd make the deal and attempt to acquire Beltre.

TRF
09-02-2008, 11:31 AM
TRF will only look at internal options.

The SS problem is easily handled for 2009: Brandon Phillips. Have an open competition for 2B, and include Valaika. The Reds do need another OF though. I see Dickerson in CF, and Bruce obviously in RF. Somebody has to play LF, and TRF thinks within the org., the first looks are Rosales and Dorn, possibly Frazier. Stubbs is a possibility, and TRF won't even rag on him here.

Weathers needs to go. Roenicke needs to arrive. Herrera too.

But the big bat the Reds need is Danny Dorn. All he does is hit.

RedlegJake
09-02-2008, 01:21 PM
Jake looks at it like this - no point speculating on who Jocketty gets - he'll get one big bat from somewhere, and that is most likely to be an outfielder who can slot into left. Since there's no point in it, I'll do it anyway. I'm like that. Really, I should use that in the collective. We're like that. Ain't it fun?

He could get Beltre for his final year - in some ways he fits the Jocketty acquisition profile, under performing, under appreciated star in his final year who comes in, has a massive season, signs LT for his new team by year's end etc, etc. That would give Walt a golden bullet to use two ways with EE - play him in left or move him to a team that still sees the glitter in the EE gold (and I think there are plenty of teams that would make some interesting offers for EE). Now if the Mariners want to really move them some contract they could package Beltre with Bedard and get some of Cincy's young folks from A to AAA packing rain gear and suitcases to replace the now dry young fellas the Ms packed off to O-town. That would give Walt TWO of his favorite under appreciated, recently maligned, very talented types in one deal without touching anyone in his celebrated core. Really - one deal VERY high risk VERY high reward VERY expensive but short term if it blew up. As TRF said, go with AGon at SS and if he falls apart then go to plan BP. Phillips to SS and Richar,Kepp,Freel fight for the 2nd base spot. That's risky, though. If Bob wants to win BADLY then he'll let Walt sign Furcal as a FA and take care of leadoff and SS in one stroke. That's a lot of bucks but a lot of it can be cut loose if he wants after the year's end when more kids are ready. In CF I'd very willingly go with CDick and Freel to start and bring up Stubbs when Ryan gets hurt in mid May as Chris's platoon partner.

At catcher Hanigan would be my starter with Wilkins backing him up. Let me rant a minute - or skip to the next paragraph now. For crying out loud quit making fun of Castillo. This kid can REALLY play D behind the dish, he's cat quick, blocks and receives very well, has a quick release and good arm. Okay he hits like he's swinging a cats whisker but he's the backup - the glove needs to be real. And the other position stuff? That's purely to make him seem more valuable as a part of the Dunn trade. And really, it does - he can in a pinch play several spots if need be. In a pinch, okay? Nobody says he's going to battle for EE's job. Quit picking on the kid and let him be what he is best at - a fine defensive reserve C who has some emergency ability to play other spots. If Dusty really does play him at 2B with other options sitting on the bench then that's on Dusty. Rant done.

Back to the team of 2009. Furcal, Beltre and Bedard added. EE goes to left.

Furcal SS
Bruce RF
EE LF
Beltre 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Dickerson/Freel CF
Hanigan C

Keppinger, AGon, Castillo, Rosales are the reserves (along with the non starting CFer that day). Stubbs, Dorn, Henry, Cumberland, Valaika, Frazier and Alonso will all be pushed
to see who can come up in 2010. It's probably not even be necessary to think about re-upping Beltre for instance if Yonder, Frazier, Dorn, Stubbs et al look really close and really good.

Starting 5:
Volquez
Harang
Bedard
Cueto
Arroyo


Ramirez, Masset, Maloney are available as fill in starters (just say that Bailey and Thompson and Bray all went to Seattle as part of that deal) with Jukich and LeCure possibilities, too, as the summer wears on.

Burton and Cordero lock up the linch pin spots in the pen.
Masset, Ramirez, Roenicke, Fischer, Herrerra, Pelland, Viola vie for spots. Belisle, Bray, Majewski, Lincoln, Weathers and Affeldt are gone. A lot of money's been spent so the pen is going young and outside of Coco, cheap.

It's a bit thin, and the pen is a bit thin but the starting 8 look really good. Now, you have to go along here and pretend that Beltre has himself a monster contract year season in GAB, that Hanigan at least has a decent OBP while not being a crusher, that Furcal stays healthy and CDick puts up that .775 range OPS with a good OBP but all but a couple teams need as much or more to go right and would have bigger question marks than that.

The rotation could be monstrously good. Four of those guys could very reasonably be called #1 level potential and Arroyo would be the best fifth starter in baseball.

Screwball
09-02-2008, 02:41 PM
But the big bat the Reds need is Danny Dorn. All he does is hit against righties.

Fixed.

RedEye
09-02-2008, 03:59 PM
RedLegJake,

Your Mariners deal at first sounded far-fetched to me, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. The only catch might be that Bavasi apparently HATES Bedard and did nothing in his finally weeks with Seattle to endear himself to him.

Beltre and Furcal would both be decent signings IMO.

Nice work!

TRF
09-02-2008, 04:30 PM
Fixed.

Since that's 2/3 of his AB's, TRF will take it.

RedlegJake
09-03-2008, 03:20 AM
RedLegJake,

Your Mariners deal at first sounded far-fetched to me, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. The only catch might be that Bavasi apparently HATES Bedard and did nothing in his finally weeks with Seattle to endear himself to him.

Beltre and Furcal would both be decent signings IMO.

Nice work!

Thanks but the credit goes to OBM for the idea. I was like you...a bit skeptical until I starting looking at it. I doubt anything like that gets done but it's one idea if Bob wants Walt to really roll the dice to try to win in '09.

Ron Madden
09-03-2008, 03:45 AM
Ron Madden has no faith in any plan that includes the likes of Norris Hopper, Alex Gonzales and Dusty Baker in the mix.

;)

camisadelgolf
09-03-2008, 03:45 AM
The Reds could afford Beltre and Furcal, but I doubt they have the funds to add Bedard to those two. Besides, considering what it would take to acquire Bedard, I don't think he'd be worth it at this point, considering that the rotation is one of the Reds' biggest strengths anyway. (I still can't believe I'm saying that after all these years.)

Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Owings, and co. is a rotation that can take you to the playoffs as long as there's enough offense and defense behind it. The lineup I posted above, with Furcal and Rivera, would be enough to do it, I think, provided everyone stays reasonably healthy. We're talking about a good OBP (Hanigan, Votto, Encarnacion, Dickerson), good SLG (Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Rivera, Bruce), and good speed (Votto, Phillips, Rivera, Dickerson, Bruce) with good defense everywhere except first and third base.

camisadelgolf
09-03-2008, 03:47 AM
Ron Madden has no faith in any plan that includes the likes of Norris Hopper.

;)

Understandable. But you can do a lot worse than Hopper when it comes to the last guy off the bench. When you need a guy to play defense late in the game, pinch run, or get a runner over, Hopper is a great player to have. He's one of those guys whose value comes from how he's used.

Ron Madden
09-03-2008, 03:52 AM
Understandable. But you can do a lot worse than Hopper when it comes to the last guy off the bench. When you need a guy to play defense late in the game, pinch run, or get a runner over, Hopper is a great player to have. He's one of those guys whose value comes from how he's used.


That would be a wonderful idea if Hopper could actually play defense or do anything other than bunt. ;)

camisadelgolf
09-03-2008, 04:31 AM
That would be a wonderful idea if Hopper could actually play defense or do anything other than bunt. ;)

Are you saying he plays bad defense or that he's average? I would agree with the latter. He takes some interesting routes to get to fly balls sometimes, but more often than not, he successfully gets to the ones within his range. But like I said, his value comes from how he's used. If it's late in the game of a blowout, and the Reds want to give their starting outfielders a rest, I'm all for putting in Hopper. But aside from Keppinger, there's no one I'd rather have at the plate than Hopper when it comes to getting a runner over.

Ron Madden
09-03-2008, 04:52 AM
Are you saying he plays bad defense or that he's average?

aside from Keppinger, there's no one I'd rather have at the plate than Hopper when it comes to getting a runner over.

Yes , Hoppers defense is not as good as it's cracked up to be.

Moving a runner into scoring position is all well and good. Driving that runner in is even better.

;)

mth123
09-03-2008, 05:26 AM
I don't see why everyone is in a rush to acquire corner players (LF,1B, 3B) when the team and the organzation is filled with guys who don't have the glove to play up the middle. The team has corner guys coming out its ears. Votto, EdE, Bruce, Alonso, FRazier, Soto, and Dorn are a place to start. Add Parker, FRancisco, Waring, Keppinger, Rosales, Guttierrez and maybe Valaika as guys who may be able to play there and the corners are covered long-term and only a short term stopgap is needed until the kids arrive.

Where Walt needs to do the heavy lifting is at SS and C where the only hopes are in Dayton and they are far from sure things. Add the continual need for starting pitching (no matter how much we may seem to have) and the major resources need to be put in those spots. The team needs to decide if EdE or Votto goes to the OF (I think one surely will and am on record in favor of Votto with Alonso looming) and get a stop gap type that won't require lots of talent or a long term dollar commitment to acquire for whichever corner spot isn't covered.

camisadelgolf
09-03-2008, 06:56 AM
I don't see why everyone is in a rush to acquire corner players (LF,1B, 3B) when the team and the organzation is filled with guys who don't have the glove to play up the middle. The team has corner guys coming out its ears. Votto, EdE, Bruce, Alonso, FRazier, Soto, and Dorn are a place to start. Add Parker, FRancisco, Waring, Keppinger, Rosales, Guttierrez and maybe Valaika as guys who may be able to play there and the corners are covered long-term and only a short term stopgap is needed until the kids arrive.

Where Walt needs to do the heavy lifting is at SS and C where the only hopes are in Dayton and they are far from sure things. Add the continual need for starting pitching (no matter how much we may seem to have) and the major resources need to be put in those spots. The team needs to decide if EdE or Votto goes to the OF (I think one surely will and am on record in favor of Votto with Alonso looming) and get a stop gap type that won't require lots of talent or a long term dollar commitment to acquire for whichever corner spot isn't covered.

League-wide, pretty much everyone is having troubles filling the shortstop and catcher positions. The Reds aren't an exception, but they're in better position than a lot of teams. If AGon produces like he should, he'll be a top-10 shortstop (overall). If Hanigan continues to produce like he has, he'll also be one of the better catchers in baseball.

For 2009 and 2010, the Reds are in need of a left fielder with a great bat because the prospects you mentioned probably won't be ready until the middle of 2010 or so. I agree that a stop-gap guy is the way to go, which is why I wouldn't want to acquire someone who would require more than a two-year contract. However, if someone as talented as Teixeira could be convinced to come here, it might be worth it to move some of the prospects you mentioned to help upgrade shortstop and catcher.

RedLegSuperStar
09-03-2008, 11:10 AM
RedLegSuperStar thinks this team will be hunting for a SP (possibly ace), OFer, and C. Starting off with the starting pitcher. RedLegSuperStar thinks the Reds should have these three pitchers and a sleeper pick as targets:

- C.C. Sabathia: 9-0 with a ERA below 2 since coming to the N.L.!!

- A.J. Burnett: high strikeout rates and typically below league average ERA

- Brad Penny: Injury risk, but could be rewarding and the cheaper of the three

- Mark Mulder (Sleeper Pick): See Penny.

Imagine one of those tossed into a rotation of Volquez, Harang, Arroyo, and Cueto. This would allow them to deal some of there more valued prospects to obtain my next need: OF. The Reds have traded Hamilton, Junior, and Dunn all in one season and now must fill the OF hole with a power bat. RedLegSuperStars first idea would be to sign Texieria and move Votto to LF. But I think Tex heads to Baltimore. Manny seems to want to stay in LA and if I was LA I'd want his bat in the lineup.. he's crushing NL pitching. With names like Burrell and Bradley left has power options I'd rather see what trade options I have. Names like Thompson, Maloney, and Bailey come to mind when attempting to aquire that bat. Here are my OFing picks:

- Vernon Wells: He is owed $17 million in signing bonus and $100 million over 6 years but it is all back loaded with 86 million in the final 4 years of the contract. Wells can opt out at the end of the 2011 season. If the Jays were to pick up the signing bonus plus about 4 million per season as long as the Reds rework the contract I would be happy with $13 million spent on Wells for the next 6 years. Besides the contract I think Vernon would do well getting out of Toronto and into a more hitter friendly park.

- Andre Ethier/Matt Kemp: One of them would seem to be availible if the Dodgers did keep Manny. Considering you have Pierre, Jones, Ramirez, Ethier, and Kemp. Might be time for the Dodgers to cash in on one of the younger bats. Both have shown the can hit with some pop as well as for contact.

- Matt Holliday: Yes his numbers come from the confines of Coors field but he's still young and getting ready to cash in. I'd like to see him wearing a Reds uniform come 2009.

- Jeremy Hermida: Has some pop and like most past Marlins players is coming up on a raise that could see them dealing him.

Next need for RedLegSuperStars Reds is Catcher. If they believe Hanigan is not the full time backstop then I would look to obtain one. With the list of Free Agent catchers.. Blah.. I'd again work the trade market. These are my targets:

- Texas Rangers Catcher: Teagarden, Ramirez, Laird.

- Jeff Clement: Young and has been back-up.

- Kelly Shoppach: Has produced some power in a more playing time role. All three wouldn't come cheap.


I'd also like to see Hairston and Affeldt resigned. Weathers and Lincoln are no longer needed and shouldn't be resigned to give way to Roenicke, Fisher, and Herrera. I'd also cut ties wth Gary Majewski. Corey Patterson should not be resigned and Chris Dickerson should have the leadoff spot. With these moves RedLegSuperStar knows his Reds will compete in 09 and beyond.

OnBaseMachine
09-03-2008, 11:38 AM
I love the idea of trying to acquire Jeremy Hermida. He hasn't lived up to expectations yet but I think he's close.

*BaseClogger*
09-03-2008, 12:58 PM
I love the idea of trying to acquire Jeremy Hermida. He hasn't lived up to expectations yet but I think he's close.

If I was to acquire a Marlin OF, I would want Josh Willingham...

OnBaseMachine
09-03-2008, 02:04 PM
If I was to acquire a Marlin OF, I would want Josh Willingham...

I would much rather have Hermida. Willingham is 29 years old and has back problems. He's a fine hitter but he's a bit risky at this point.

Rojo
09-03-2008, 02:28 PM
Rojo lets Bako, Patterson, Lincoln, Affeldt, Fogg and Majewski walk.

He looks closely at Blalock for third and moves EdE-5 to left.

Gonzo reclaims short. If not, I consider moving Phillips and platooning Kepp and Richar at 2nd.

Dickerson and Freel platoon in center.

Rojo doesn't like the catcher's market and takes a gamble on Hannigan/Castillo.

Rojo's bench includes Mench, Helms, Kepp, Richar, Freel, Hannigan.

*BaseClogger*
09-03-2008, 11:34 PM
I would much rather have Hermida. Willingham is 29 years old and has back problems. He's a fine hitter but he's a bit risky at this point.

Jeremy Hermida hasn't exactly been a shining beacon of health. I think it's clear Willingham is the superior player when healthy, I guess it would be a matter of cost and risk...

*BaseClogger*
09-03-2008, 11:37 PM
He looks closely at Blalock for third and moves EdE-5 to left.

Wow, I almost posted the exact same thing. However, I did some research and I found Blalock not to be an upgrade over EE at 3B. He has had many injury issues to the point where he is no longer an above-average fielder like he was when he came up; the Rangers have begun playing him at 1B. Plus, he has always played in a hitter's park so I'm not sure he is much of a hitter (career 102 OPS+)...

Patrick Bateman
09-04-2008, 01:20 AM
Jeremy Hermida hasn't exactly been a shining beacon of health. I think it's clear Willingham is the superior player when healthy, I guess it would be a matter of cost and risk...

I think I'd rather have Hermida for his upside.

I mean, Willingham is an interesting hitter, but his fielding is pretty bad. Long term, not really the type of guy I want to invest in... has the old player skill set that goes downhill sharply after the age prime years.

Hermida is a nice looking athlete that has had troubles putting it all together. He's always been seen as a higher end Votto type of player. A real nice athlete that really doesn't have a lot of weaknesses. In the end, I think he's got a good chance to develop into not only an above average hitter, but also an above average fielder, especially if he moves to an easier position like left.

I'm not saying that the Reds need to go all out on fielding, but I think it needs to be strongly considered. If the choices are a known purely offensive quantity vs. a riskier all around player, I'd go with the latter. In the long run, guys like Willingham just aren't going to act as the integral building blocks. I think instead we'd be running into the same debates that we do with Edwin Encarnacion. Hermida's got a chance to be a real solution at a gaping hole for a long time, and not hold us back from being simply an 'offense team' but instead a team that focuses on both. Personally, I think that by this time next year, Hermida is outhitting Willingham, and additionally offers another athlete in the OF.

*BaseClogger*
09-04-2008, 01:43 AM
I think I'd rather have Hermida for his upside.

I mean, Willingham is an interesting hitter, but his fielding is pretty bad. Long term, not really the type of guy I want to invest in... has the old player skill set that goes downhill sharply after the age prime years.

Hermida is a nice looking athlete that has had troubles putting it all together. He's always been seen as a higher end Votto type of player. A real nice athlete that really doesn't have a lot of weaknesses. In the end, I think he's got a good chance to develop into not only an above average hitter, but also an above average fielder, especially if he moves to an easier position like left.

I'm not saying that the Reds need to go all out on fielding, but I think it needs to be strongly considered. If the choices are a known purely offensive quantity vs. a riskier all around player, I'd go with the latter. In the long run, guys like Willingham just aren't going to act as the integral building blocks. I think instead we'd be running into the same debates that we do with Edwin Encarnacion. Hermida's got a chance to be a real solution at a gaping hole for a long time, and not hold us back from being simply an 'offense team' but instead a team that focuses on both. Personally, I think that by this time next year, Hermida is outhitting Willingham, and additionally offers another athlete in the OF.

I think your argument has swayed my opinion. I made a critical mistake: I didn't do the research on Hermida (like I did with Willingham and Blalock), and instead based my opinion on assumptions. I thought Hermida was a few years older (he's only 24) and I didn't realize how productive Hermida had been coming into this season. I wonder, why has he been so bad this year?

Anyways, this is a team building past 2009, and although I still think Willingham will be more productive next year, it starts to look very shaky after that.

Can we have both? :cool:

Rojo
09-04-2008, 03:58 AM
Wow, I almost posted the exact same thing. However, I did some research and I found Blalock not to be an upgrade over EE at 3B. He has had many injury issues to the point where he is no longer an above-average fielder like he was when he came up; the Rangers have begun playing him at 1B. Plus, he has always played in a hitter's park so I'm not sure he is much of a hitter (career 102 OPS+)...

We have a hitter's park.

As for the defense, you may be right, I have nothing to go on but the numbers. His career FP (.960) is better than league-average, even after an injury-plagued 2007.

This year his FP is around his career numbers (.955) and he's played 31 games at third and 12 at first.

Of course this doesn't speak to his range. He had a good rep but it might've completely evaporated with the injury. But I'm ok with a steady glove (and, more importanly, arm) at third.

And the usual caveat: it depends on price. He's had two bad years, is coming off an injury and has a bad clubhouse rap. But he's also entering prime years. He might be a steal and he might be a Jocketty type.

mth123
09-04-2008, 05:31 AM
League-wide, pretty much everyone is having troubles filling the shortstop and catcher positions. The Reds aren't an exception, but they're in better position than a lot of teams. If AGon produces like he should, he'll be a top-10 shortstop (overall). If Hanigan continues to produce like he has, he'll also be one of the better catchers in baseball.

For 2009 and 2010, the Reds are in need of a left fielder with a great bat because the prospects you mentioned probably won't be ready until the middle of 2010 or so. I agree that a stop-gap guy is the way to go, which is why I wouldn't want to acquire someone who would require more than a two-year contract. However, if someone as talented as Teixeira could be convinced to come here, it might be worth it to move some of the prospects you mentioned to help upgrade shortstop and catcher.

I think Dorn, Alonso and Frazier could all make their debut at some point in '09 with Alonso being the starter at 1B by opening day 2010, if not earlier. With that assumption, I'd clear the path and fill my LF hole in one fell swoop by moving Votto now. Add a stopgap at 1B who would fit down the road as a nice bench guy. I like Kevin Millar as that guy with Keppinger, Rosales, maybe Dorn for a while and heck even Micah Owings seeing some time there until Alonso is ready. The point really is not so much who in 09, but that long term the team seems to have the corner spots covered. If any big dollar long term contracts are to be handed out or any massive unloading of multiple young players is to occur, I think it needs to be to address the organizational holes at SS and C.

I'd also be looking for rotation options. Somebody always breaks down and the extra arms are nice "currency" to have to go shopping with. I'm guessing if this team is to acquire what it needs to set it up for a multiple year run, it will probably involve dealing some of its pitching depth like Bailey, Maloney and a few other arms coupled with some young position players. Signing an arm or two for the rotation may be needed to replenish the supply of alternatives by pushing the Owings and Masset 5th starter competition into swingman roles. Harang, Volquez, Cueto and Arroyo with a new solid mid rotation guy and Owings and Masset in long relief/injury insurance roles. That would make the rotation 7 deep before even looking to AAA and allow a couple of the AAA/reserve starters of Bailey, Maloney, Ramirez, Lecure, Jukich and Thompson to be dealt for help at SS and/or C.

camisadelgolf
09-04-2008, 06:01 AM
I think Dorn, Alonso and Frazier could all make their debut at some point in '09 with Alonso being the starter at 1B by opening day 2010, if not earlier. With that assumption, I'd clear the path and fill my LF hole in one fell swoop by moving Votto now. Add a stopgap at 1B who would fit down the road as a nice bench guy. I like Kevin Millar as that guy with Keppinger, Rosales, maybe Dorn for a while and heck even Micah Owings seeing some time there until Alonso is ready. The point really is not so much who in 09, but that long term the team seems to have the corner spots covered. If any big dollar long term contracts are to be handed out or any massive unloading of multiple young players is to occur, I think it needs to be to address the organizational holes at SS and C.

I'd also be looking for rotation options. Somebody always breaks down and the extra arms are nice "currency" to have to go shopping with. I'm guessing if this team is to acquire what it needs to set it up for a multiple year run, it will probably involve dealing some of its pitching depth like Bailey, Maloney and a few other arms coupled with some young position players. Signing an arm or two for the rotation may be needed to replenish the supply of alternatives by pushing the Owings and Masset 5th starter competition into swingman roles. Harang, Volquez, Cueto and Arroyo with a new solid mid rotation guy and Owings and Masset in long relief/injury insurance roles. That would make the rotation 7 deep before even looking to AAA and allow a couple of the AAA/reserve starters of Bailey, Maloney, Ramirez, Lecure, Jukich and Thompson to be dealt for help at SS and/or C.

I agree with you in principle. But unfortunately, when it comes to acquiring pitching, it is much easier said than done. But if the Reds do trade one of the guys you mentioned, I really hope it's for a starting shortstop or catcher.

As for Alonso, Dorn, and/or Frazier being ready in 2009, I could see that happening, but I doubt they would arrive and immediately make an impact. But if they start mashing the ball immediately after being called up, the acquired veterans could be used as trading chips if they're not competing or depth if they are competing.

TRF
09-04-2008, 09:59 AM
Blalock at this point in his career is a 1B. He can't make the throw from 3B anymore.

*BaseClogger*
09-04-2008, 11:27 AM
We have a hitter's park.

Yes, but if you find a guy who hasn't been playing in a hitters park that has put up similar numbers to Blalock the other guy will produce better at GABP. That's why I included Blalock's career 102 OPS+--barely above-average, even when including his career 2004 season...

Degenerate39
09-04-2008, 12:01 PM
Does this make nate the Bronson Arroyo of Redszone?

KronoRed
09-04-2008, 01:29 PM
Does this make nate the Bronson Arroyo of Redszone?

Nate attacks former posters? ;)

Degenerate39
09-04-2008, 02:55 PM
Nate attacks former posters? ;)

Not yet. But they're both known for their musical talents

Rojo
09-04-2008, 03:12 PM
Blalock at this point in his career is a 1B. He can't make the throw from 3B anymore.

Oh well.

camisadelgolf
09-07-2008, 04:35 PM
Could also be the Bob Dole of RedsZone, I suppose.

Dole is a political figure, and I didn't want the thread to be shut down.

Does camisadelgolf get any love for spelling Rickey's name with an 'e'?