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ChatterRed
09-09-2008, 12:11 AM
:D

Redeye fly
09-09-2008, 07:09 AM
That's not much to grin about. It should be every red blooded fan's desire to see Manny miss out on the playoffs. :p:

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 08:03 AM
The implication being that Dunn is somehow losing the games for the D'backs, right?

Dunn's line the last 10 games:
.323/.475/.613

They're losing in spite of Dunn.

Correlation does not necessarily equal causation.

As for the Reds, good job boys.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-09-2008, 09:38 AM
I would much rather have one of the best pure hitters of all time in the playoffs than fat adam dunn.. go man ram.. i hope dunn falls off the earth like he ALWAYS does after a good month..

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 11:20 AM
I would much rather have one of the best pure hitters of all time in the playoffs than fat adam dunn.. go man ram.. i hope dunn falls off the earth like he ALWAYS does after a good month..

You're kinda inconsistent. Ramirez is a better overall hitter than Dunn, but his defense is every bit as bad (in some seasons even worse) than Dunn's and his salary is 7 million higher. And Manny has been accused by many as "not caring" and "loafing it". Why don't you rail against that?

ChatterRed
09-09-2008, 11:21 AM
Adam is actually hitting better, but the lineup in 'Zona isn't much better than the Reds, therefore opponents are pitching around him and his impact is very little. Not Adam's fault, but just showing that with his departure we are doing no worse, if not slightly better.

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 11:30 AM
Adam is actually hitting better, but the lineup in 'Zona isn't much better than the Reds, therefore opponents are pitching around him and his impact is very little. Not Adam's fault, but just showing that with his departure we are doing no worse, if not slightly better.

Ok, so then Adam only has so much control over the success of the team, agreed? It takes more than 1 guy to ensure the team wins, agreed? If only one guy is performing and the rest are slagging, then the team loses in spite of the good performance of the one, agreed?

So I gotta ask, what was the point of the comparison to begin with?

ChatterRed
09-09-2008, 11:39 AM
I don't completely agree. I'm saying it's not completely Adam's fault, I don't think he is an impact player. If he's not an impact player, he should not command $15 million per year.

On the other hand, Man-Ram has made a huge impact on the Dodgers.

The Reds didn't/don't need Adam Dunn and this comparison proves that (so far).

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 11:51 AM
I don't completely agree. I'm saying it's not completely Adam's fault, I don't think he is an impact player. If he's not an impact player, he should not command $15 million per year.

On the other hand, Man-Ram has made a huge impact on the Dodgers.

The Reds didn't/don't need Adam Dunn and this comparison proves that (so far).

Define "impact player".

ChatterRed
09-09-2008, 11:53 AM
If you don't know what an impact player is, I'm not going to tell you.

Let's just agree to disagree, because I'm not going to continue this pissing match with you.

Dunn has had no bearing on the Reds or Diamondbacks season. Simple as that.

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 11:55 AM
And the comparison doesn't prove anything other than arbitrarily picked small sample sizes don't impart much knowledge.

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 11:59 AM
If you don't know what an impact player is, I'm not going to tell you.

What a 3rd grade thing to say. I'll play along; you won't tell me because you don't know.


Let's just agree to disagree, because I'm not going to continue this pissing match with you.

No, I won't agree to allow you to sully a players name for effects that are essentially beyond his control. Dunn has been great for the D'backs but you point to the win % (of which you picked an arbitrary sample) as it is somehow his fault despite the fact that baseball is made up of more (way more) than just one player.


Dunn has had no bearing on the Reds or Diamondbacks season. Simple as that.

False. Think of it this way, if the D'backs hadn't acquired Dunn, where would they be now? Think scientifically, not snake oil salesman.

.

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 12:27 PM
Playing the small sample game, Manny has raised the Dodgers win % by 2.8% (from .500 without him to .528 with him). In any other division, with a win % of .528, they wouldn't even be able to make the playoffs.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-09-2008, 12:58 PM
You're kinda inconsistent. Ramirez is a better overall hitter than Dunn, but his defense is every bit as bad (in some seasons even worse) than Dunn's and his salary is 7 million higher. And Manny has been accused by many as "not caring" and "loafing it". Why don't you rail against that?

there is no lack of consistancy.. ramirez is simply a much more exciting player to watch.. he is HOF through and through, and if AYNTHING he is the same defensively.. this year that is.. after dunn improved.. ManRam is a better overall player.. and much more exciting to watch..

I have no desire to watch adam dunn do anything besides All star game home run derby.. if manny isn't playing well he is at least still having fun, making the game enjoyable.. dunn.. lopes around even when he is playing well..

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 01:00 PM
there is no lack of consistancy.. ramirez is simply a much more exciting player to watch.. he is HOF through and through, and if AYNTHING he is the same defensively.. this year that is.. after dunn improved.. ManRam is a better overall player.. and much more exciting to watch..

I have no desire to watch adam dunn do anything besides All star game home run derby.. if manny isn't playing well he is at least still having fun, making the game enjoyable.. dunn.. lopes around even when he is playing well..

Ok, that's your opinion and I guess you're entitled to it.

aerontg
09-09-2008, 03:20 PM
redsbuckeye, you're a Dunn supporter. We get it. I'm sure there is a season ticket package available for the D'Backs next season, and you'll find plenty of Snake fans that love OBP. :p: As for the Reds, go go go!

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 03:36 PM
redsbuckeye, you're a Dunn supporter. We get it. I'm sure there is a season ticket package available for the D'Backs next season, and you'll find plenty of Snake fans that love OBP. :p: As for the Reds, go go go!

I'm a good player supporter and even more so a good player on the Reds supporter. Dunn is a pretty good player. I liked his production. I'm happy the Reds have found a way to win without him so far.

But I'm also a realist and an amatuer statistictian. I prefer raw data and numbers over feelings and gut. I prefer correlation coefficients over leadership evaluation. I prefer actual production over perceived effort. I don't buy snake oil. I love the game of baseball and I strive harder to understand what exactly makes a team successful. Research has led to the conclusion that there are many people, including those in high executive baseball positions, that don't know what really makes a team tick. The simple economics and statistics of baseball are plain to see, but people refuse to have their preconceived notions challenged and will fight tooth and nail to support a wrong position.

Jr's Boy
09-09-2008, 08:03 PM
That's not much to grin about. It should be every red blooded fan's desire to see Manny miss out on the playoffs. :p:

Speak for yourself.I like Manny,one of the greatest hitter's to ever play the game.I guess you can't see pass the dreadlocks.

kpresidente
09-09-2008, 09:25 PM
I'm a good player supporter and even more so a good player on the Reds supporter. Dunn is a pretty good player. I liked his production. I'm happy the Reds have found a way to win without him so far.


Maybe the Reds aren't sitting around waiting for Dunn to win it on a 3-run dinger anymore while the D-Backs, all the sudden, are.

Or maybe it's just sample size. :p:

I'm happy the Reds came out winning after the Dunn trade because I think it'll help their confidence going forward. There's no stat for confidence, but I still believe it's real and it matters. Call it my personal experience in team sports.

redsbuckeye
09-09-2008, 09:46 PM
Maybe the Reds aren't sitting around waiting for Dunn to win it on a 3-run dinger anymore while the D-Backs, all the sudden, are.

Maybe they were and are. Thinking that way is probably going to get you Ls instead of Ws. Trying to string together a series of non-out at bats is the way to do it. And it's kind of hard to fault a guy who's OBP is way over .400 since being acquired.

Alas...


Or maybe it's just sample size. :p:

...this is likely the explanation. We'll only know in the months/years to come.

Interesting to note, the % of Dunn swinging at pitches outside the strike zone has dropped significantly since the trade (this is somewhere in the ORG). Possible this is also sample size but maybe the hitting coach in 'zona has had something to do with it.


I'm happy the Reds came out winning after the Dunn trade because I think it'll help their confidence going forward. There's no stat for confidence, but I still believe it's real and it matters. Call it my personal experience in team sports.

I'm happy too. I'm really happy Dickerson is breaking the odds of his minors performance. I really hope it he keeps up and makes the Dunn trade look like addition by subtraction. Alas, as a skeptic, I can only hope so much. But in the meantime, he's fun to watch.

tommycash
09-10-2008, 08:12 AM
I think our goal this year (for the rest of the year) is to try and finish better than Arizona. We are about 5 games back in that race. I personally think that would be sweet considering Dunn's comments about being around winners now that he is in Arizona.

Redeye fly
09-10-2008, 06:42 PM
there is no lack of consistancy.. ramirez is simply a much more exciting player to watch.. he is HOF through and through, and if AYNTHING he is the same defensively.. this year that is.. after dunn improved.. ManRam is a better overall player.. and much more exciting to watch..

I have no desire to watch adam dunn do anything besides All star game home run derby.. if manny isn't playing well he is at least still having fun, making the game enjoyable.. dunn.. lopes around even when he is playing well..

Ramirez is kind of a self centered air head, who won world championships with Boston and still wasn't happy. He wants to be traded, he doesn't want to be traded. He wants to be traded, and says Boston doesn't deserve a player like him. He gets thrown out at home last year because he's
too busy playing with his helmet instead of actually, uh, running hard to try to score.

Manny may have fun, but he's also a self centered prima donna. Pardon me if I think he's had enough playoffs and World Series titles for my taste.

My original comment though, was obviously kind of a joke and tongue in cheek. But nevertheless, Manny is still an idiot.

Redeye fly
09-10-2008, 06:50 PM
Speak for yourself.I like Manny,one of the greatest hitter's to ever play the game.I guess you can't see pass the dreadlocks.


Is it really that hard to understand the joking nature of a ":p:"?

Sheesh

That being said, it has more to do with the ego/ team distraction/air head qualities that Manny possesses than anything else.

ChatterRed
09-11-2008, 07:58 AM
Dunn's defense continues to help the teams he plays for:

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/sports/articles/2008/09/11/20080911dbgame0911.html

I like this part:

So in the span of 13 days, the Diamondbacks have lost eight games in the standings, including the Dodgers' 7-2 victory over the Padres on Wednesday night. The Dodgers now own a 3 1/2-game lead over the Diamondbacks in the National League West.

Right-hander Dan Haren lasted only four innings, but he might have gone longer if he had gotten some help from his defense. The biggest mistake was made by Adam Dunn in right field in the third.

With the bases loaded, Dunn ran back on a Velez fly ball. Expecting it to hit off the wall, he turned around as if he was catching it - an attempt to fake out the baserunners.

But when he spun to play the carom, the ball bounced on the warning track. Had he continued back, he might have caught it. Instead, two runs scored.



Classic Adam Dunn. :eek:

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 09:38 AM
he doesn't cost any team more than 20 runs a year with his defense....... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 09:47 AM
I'm a good player supporter and even more so a good player on the Reds supporter. Dunn is a pretty good player. I liked his production. I'm happy the Reds have found a way to win without him so far.

Ah, I've found it too! - play the Pirates and the Giants ONLY!!!

Aside from that, we've had a couple 8th/9th inning rallies off of choking under-pressure Contenders, who pretty much dominated us for the first 7 innings.

I love Votto - especially that he's batting higher in the order than 7th, 3rd/4th fits him just fine - and what EE and Bruce have shown at the plate, lately.. Other than that, this offense is PUTRID!!

Unless we get a SERIOUS RH LF power bat, an upgrade at SS (even if it's just AGON), an every day CF-er who can OBP above .340 - for 150 games, not 50, and a couple more bench guys who actually give us a Positive VORP, don't even think about contending for anything other than NOT being the only 6th place Division team in MLB.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 09:57 AM
Bleeds you have no idea! you also said this team wouldn't score runs AT ALLL without dunn..

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 11:15 AM
We've been in the bottom 5 of just about every offensive Category since Dunn left. But hey, we did play the Pirates and Giants for 6 games!!

Don't cry just because your Golden Boy BP is a shadow of his 2007 self. He couldn't carry Dunn's jock when it comes to VORP, RAP, OPS+, etc, etc... and his Baserunning Efficiency has fallen off so far, it's barely worth mentioning.

As one poster mentioned, after a thorough statistical analysis "What doesn't make sense is clutching tightly to a player who needs to produce an astounding amount of defensive Runs just to position himself as a slightly above-average player"

His best value to this team right now is as trade bait.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

texasdave
09-11-2008, 11:53 AM
We've been in the bottom 5 of just about every offensive Category since Dunn left. But hey, we did play the Pirates and Giants for 6 games!!


And the Cubs for 6 games as well as series with the Cardinals, Astros and Brewers. In fact if you add up the records (on the morning of 9/11) from all the teams the Reds have played - minus AD - you get a record of 1998 wins and 1926 losses. That works out to a .509 winning percentage. That seems to be to a slightly above average schedule for those 27 games.

As far as the Reds being in the bottom five in just about every offensive category since Dunn left, that also seems to be a stretch.

Before Dunn left this team scored 510 runs in 119 games. This works out to an average of 4.29 runs per game. Post Dunn the Reds have scored 127 runs in 27 games. This results in average of 4.70 runs per game. Advantage Post-Dunn Reds.

In fact if you extrapolate what the Post-Dunn Reds have done, in the 27 games offensively since AD packed his bags, over 162 games you get 762 runs scored and 186 home runs hit. The Before-Dunn Reds were working on a pace to score 694 runs and hit 185 home runs. Advantage Post-Dunn Reds.

Here are some rate stats comparing the Post-Dunn Reds with the 2008 NL Average:


r/g ba obp slg ops
PD-REDS 4.70 0.252 0.326 0.419 0.745
NL AVE 4.53 0.260 0.330 0.413 0.743

The Post-Dunn Reds would appear to be an average offensive team compared to the rest of the NL in 2008 - maybe just a tick above average. Certainly not a team that is ranking in the bottom five in just about every offensive category.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 12:16 PM
Bleeds will claim the GRP, HTC, HGH, and JRP are all lower.. whatever they are.. 99% of the world doesn't know.. but how bleeds applies them is completely wrong.. because many of them only account for one part of their game.. or they rely heavily on another..

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 12:20 PM
We've been in the bottom 5 of just about every offensive Category since Dunn left. But hey, we did play the Pirates and Giants for 6 games!!

Don't cry just because your Golden Boy BP is a shadow of his 2007 self. He couldn't carry Dunn's jock when it comes to VORP, RAP, OPS+, etc, etc... and his Baserunning Efficiency has fallen off so far, it's barely worth mentioning.

As one poster mentioned, after a thorough statistical analysis "What doesn't make sense is clutching tightly to a player who needs to produce an astounding amount of defensive Runs just to position himself as a slightly above-average player"

His best value to this team right now is as trade bait.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

As much as you hate BPhill he surely has created alot of runs and rbi's for a guy who hits behind "terrible" griffey, patterson and co.

ChatterRed
09-11-2008, 02:01 PM
And the Cubs for 6 games as well as series with the Cardinals, Astros and Brewers. In fact if you add up the records (on the morning of 9/11) from all the teams the Reds have played - minus AD - you get a record of 1998 wins and 1926 losses. That works out to a .509 winning percentage. That seems to be to a slightly above average schedule for those 27 games.

As far as the Reds being in the bottom five in just about every offensive category since Dunn left, that also seems to be a stretch.

Before Dunn left this team scored 510 runs in 119 games. This works out to an average of 4.29 runs per game. Post Dunn the Reds have scored 127 runs in 27 games. This results in average of 4.70 runs per game. Advantage Post-Dunn Reds.

In fact if you extrapolate what the Post-Dunn Reds have done, in the 27 games offensively since AD packed his bags, over 162 games you get 762 runs scored and 186 home runs hit. The Before-Dunn Reds were working on a pace to score 694 runs and hit 185 home runs. Advantage Post-Dunn Reds.

Here are some rate stats comparing the Post-Dunn Reds with the 2008 NL Average:


r/g ba obp slg ops
PD-REDS 4.70 0.252 0.326 0.419 0.745
NL AVE 4.53 0.260 0.330 0.413 0.743

The Post-Dunn Reds would appear to be an average offensive team compared to the rest of the NL in 2008 - maybe just a tick above average. Certainly not a team that is ranking in the bottom five in just about every offensive category.

(sarcasm)...but it's only a small sample size (25 games)!!!! :rolleyes:

Seriously, I agree with you. Good post.

If anything......it proves the Reds can win or score, with or without Dunn. I personally like to believe they are going to improve and already are improving.

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 03:08 PM
As much as you hate BPhill he surely has created alot of runs and rbi's for a guy who hits behind "terrible" griffey, patterson and co.

That's right, don't let stats get in the way of your blind eyeballs.

Just because he's the best we've got left, doesn't make him great by any standards. He's not even in the top 20 2nd baseman in terms of OPS+ (park adjusted) in the Majors.

That's like saying Corey Patterson is the best defensive CF-er we have, therefore he must be good.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 03:19 PM
he's not the best hitter.. joey votto is currently.. but to get rid of a plus player to try to get or fish to find another is not the thing to do if we want to win.. but to lie and say he isnt in the top 20 2b is simply a LIE.. in fact unless you are talking about in history you are truly making yourself looks really really dumb..

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 03:27 PM
(sarcasm)...but it's only a small sample size (25 games)!!!! :rolleyes:

Seriously, I agree with you. Good post.

If anything......it proves the Reds can win or score, with or without Dunn. I personally like to believe they are going to improve and already are improving.


Yeah, it has NOTHING to do with playing crappy teams.

And, you might want to go back and check, we haven't done EITHER score OR win on any kind of consistent basis at all. We swept the Giants - WOOO-FRICKIN-HOO!!! Two blown saves by Chicago and Milwaukee, or we aren't even having this conversation.

We can't beat the Pirates, let alone the Cards, Astros, Cubs or Milwaukee.

You want to see what we've become - look at yesterday's game. A fluke 3-run HR from our leadoff hitter, otherwise we're shut out. Then we blow the lead.

We've won a few games thanks to HR's by Votto/Bruce/EE, otherwise, we have about ZERO offense when we're facing any team not named the Pirates or Giants. I'd be surprises if we scored over 5 runs more than 1/2 a dozen times since Dunn left.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 03:29 PM
he's not the best hitter.. joey votto is currently.. but to get rid of a plus player to try to get or fish to find another is not the thing to do if we want to win.. but to lie and say he isnt in the top 20 2b is simply a LIE.. in fact unless you are talking about in history you are truly making yourself looks really really dumb..

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1738488&postcount=52

I went to baseball reference & looked at who got the most ABs this year at
2B for each team. Here are their OPS+ rankings ( OPS+ is adjusted for ballpark ). I averaged the last three years unless noted.

1. 134 Utley
2. 118 Pedroia ( 2 years )
3. 117 Uggla
4. 116 Kinsler
5. 110 Derosa
5. 110 Kent
7. 109 Cano
7. 109 Roberts
9. 106 Hudson
10. 105 Kelly Johnson
11. 103 Matsui
11. 103 Alexi Ramirez ( 1 yr )
13. 102 Polanco
14. 101 Iwamura ( 2 years )
14. 101 Durham
16. 99 F Sanchez
16. 99 Alexi Casilla
18. 98 Kendrick
19. 97 Weeks
20. 95 Brandon Phillips
20. 95 Ellis
20. 95 Grudzielanek
23. 93 Hill
24. 89 L Castillo
25. 87 Jose Lopez
26. 84 Iguchi
27. 83 Felipe Lopez
28. 78 Kennedy
29. 78 Asdrubal Cabrera ( 1 year )
30. 58 Barmes

So Phillips may be one of the best defensive second basemen in the bigs but he is subpar offensively at his position.

""""


How do I "looks" now, son?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 03:30 PM
Yeah, it has NOTHING to do with playing crappy teams.

And, you might want to go back and check, we haven't done EITHER score OR win on any kind of consistent basis at all. We swept the Giants - WOOO-FRICKIN-HOO!!! Two blown saves by Chicago and Milwaukee, or we aren't even having this conversation.

We can't beat the Pirates, let alone the Cards, Astros, Cubs or Milwaukee.

You want to see what we've become - look at yesterday's game. A fluke 3-run HR from our leadoff hitter, otherwise we're shut out. Then we blow the lead.

We've won a few games thanks to HR's by Votto/Bruce/EE, otherwise, we have about ZERO offense when we're facing any team not named the Pirates or Giants. I'd be surprises if we scored over 5 runs more than 1/2 a dozen times since Dunn left.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

FTR we have scored 5 runs or more 11 times since dunn left..

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 03:44 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1738488&postcount=52

I went to baseball reference & looked at who got the most ABs this year at
2B for each team. Here are their OPS+ rankings ( OPS+ is adjusted for ballpark ). I averaged the last three years unless noted.

1. 134 Utley
2. 118 Pedroia ( 2 years )
3. 117 Uggla
4. 116 Kinsler
5. 110 Derosa
5. 110 Kent
7. 109 Cano
7. 109 Roberts
9. 106 Hudson
10. 105 Kelly Johnson
11. 103 Matsui
11. 103 Alexi Ramirez ( 1 yr )
13. 102 Polanco
14. 101 Iwamura ( 2 years )
14. 101 Durham
16. 99 F Sanchez
16. 99 Alexi Casilla
18. 98 Kendrick
19. 97 Weeks
20. 95 Brandon Phillips
20. 95 Ellis
20. 95 Grudzielanek
23. 93 Hill
24. 89 L Castillo
25. 87 Jose Lopez
26. 84 Iguchi
27. 83 Felipe Lopez
28. 78 Kennedy
29. 78 Asdrubal Cabrera ( 1 year )
30. 58 Barmes

So Phillips may be one of the best defensive second basemen in the bigs but he is subpar offensively at his position.

""""


How do I "looks" now, son?

PEACE

-BLEEDS


This years numbers are lower than BPhills.....
Kent
Cano
Sanchez

Still too soon to anoint as better offensively..
Alexi Ramirez ( 1 yr )
Iwamura (2 years), his speed actually makes his OPS+ be skewed.. because while they say tropicana isnt a good homerun park.. its a GREAT double and triples park..

Hasn't played even 1 whole season in 3 years...
Mastsui
Alexi Casilla
Kendrick

Weeks(plays on same team as ray durham......only 1 can play in the NL)

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 03:55 PM
Iwamura (2 years), his speed actually makes his OPS+ be skewed.. because while they say tropicana isnt a good homerun park.. its a GREAT double and triples park..

OPS+ that Bleeds is referencing adjusts for ballpark factors.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 03:58 PM
yeah.. but a ballpark with wide open expanses has a lower factor than a sandbox like GABP.. and those wide open ones are far better for doubles and triples from a fast player than homers.. and people like iwamura would probably lose ops numbers due to a smaller field.. there are some who are better in small parks because of power.. and some who are better in big parks because of the outfield expanses.. iwamura falls in the latter..

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 04:05 PM
OPS+ that Bleeds is referencing adjusts for ballpark factors.

Um, yep.

Also, FTR, an OPS+ of 100 is considered - WAIT FOR IT - LEAGUE AVERAGE.

So, for the last THREE YEARS BP is BELOW LEAGUE AVERAGE OFFENSIVELY.

He had ONE year where he got lucky and lead the league in "just enough to clear the fences" HR's, otherwise he's BELOW AVERAGE. Now, he can't hit a RHP who doesn't throw a meatball over the middle of the plate to save his life.

I like him for his glove, and that alone is worth one win, but don't come at me with Offensive Prowess proclimations, because they just aren't true.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
09-11-2008, 04:06 PM
yeah.. but a ballpark with wide open expanses has a lower factor than a sandbox like GABP.. and those wide open ones are far better for doubles and triples from a fast player than homers.. and people like iwamura would probably lose ops numbers due to a smaller field.. there are some who are better in small parks because of power.. and some who are better in big parks because of the outfield expanses.. iwamura falls in the latter..

Do you understand what the term "PARK ADJUSTED" means?

Seriously.

Pick one of your childish "this makes you look like a really dumb stupid head" comments and ram it up your Horsepoopoo.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 04:14 PM
League average.. that doesnt mean average 2b btw.. the best hitters arent usually at 2b.....

texasdave
09-11-2008, 04:17 PM
I'd be surprised if we scored over 5 runs more than 1/2 a dozen times since Dunn left

Here is a chart PDR (Post-Dunn Reds) versus WDR (With-Dunn Reds).


TOTAL PDR WDR
61 13 48 5+ GMS
146 27 119 TOT GMS
41.8% 48.1% 40.3%
TOTAL PDR WDR
46 9 37 >5 GMS
146 27 119 TOT GMS
31.5% 33.3% 31.1%

If you look at games in which the Reds either score 5 or more runs, or more than five runs in a game, both sets of statistics favor the Reds without AD as opposed to with AD in the lineup.

5 or more runs it is 48.1% to only 40.3%.
More than 5 runs it is 33.3% to only 31.1%.

The Reds' offense with Adam Dunn OPSd .727.
The Reds' offense without Adam Dunn is OPSing .745.

The Reds' offense with AD averaged 4.29 RPG.
The Reds' offense without AD is averaging 4.70 RPG.

The simple fact is that Cincinnati's offense has performed better since Adam Dunn was traded.

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 04:20 PM
yeah.. but a ballpark with wide open expanses has a lower factor than a sandbox like GABP.. and those wide open ones are far better for doubles and triples from a fast player than homers.. and people like iwamura would probably lose ops numbers due to a smaller field.. there are some who are better in small parks because of power.. and some who are better in big parks because of the outfield expanses.. iwamura falls in the latter..

What? Ballpark adjustment takes all that in to account and essentially displays the numbers as if they had played on a perfectly neutral field.

It's a direct comparison of 2nd baseman in absolute numbers. There's nothing else to account for so long as you're inquiring about 2nd basemen.

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 04:21 PM
League average.. that doesnt mean average 2b btw.. the best hitters arent usually at 2b.....

True, but you can still rank the 2nd basemen based on that stat, which is exactly what Bleeds did. It's an apples to apples comparison.

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 04:26 PM
Here is a chart PDR (Post-Dunn Reds) versus WDR (With-Dunn Reds).


TOTAL PDR WDR
61 13 48 5+ GMS
146 27 119 TOT GMS
41.8% 48.1% 40.3%
TOTAL PDR WDR
46 9 37 >5 GMS
146 27 119 TOT GMS
31.5% 33.3% 31.1%

If you look at games in which the Reds either score 5 or more runs, or more than five runs in a game, both sets of statistics favor the Reds without AD as opposed to with AD in the lineup.

5 or more runs it is 48.1% to only 40.3%.
More than 5 runs it is 33.3% to only 31.1%.

The Reds' offense with Adam Dunn OPSd .727.
The Reds' offense without Adam Dunn is OPSing .745.

The Reds' offense with AD averaged 4.29 RPG.
The Reds' offense without AD is averaging 4.70 RPG.

The simple fact is that Cincinnati's offense has performed better since Adam Dunn was traded.

That's all fine and well, but correlation doesn't equal causation here. Dunn's OPS was and is still better than the Reds overall average. What that means is the rest of the Reds players are responsible for the sudden increase in offense since Dunn left. The notion that the Reds are better because Dunn left is bunk.

The notion that the Reds are better because other players have played well since Dunn left is the answer. There will probably be an argument that Dunn was dragging the team down. To that I respond, why would players let another player drag them down? Maybe there is something there, but we will only know in the coming months.

Ahhhorsepoo
09-11-2008, 04:26 PM
ok.. but almost half of the ones infront of him in those stats either havent played a whole season.. soo being marginally better than bphill leaves NO concrete proof they will be better in the long run.. some are dropping off because of their age.. and some havent played a whole year due to injury...

texasdave
09-11-2008, 05:43 PM
That's all fine and well, but correlation doesn't equal causation here. Dunn's OPS was and is still better than the Reds overall average. What that means is the rest of the Reds players are responsible for the sudden increase in offense since Dunn left. The notion that the Reds are better because Dunn left is bunk.

The notion that the Reds are better because other players have played well since Dunn left is the answer. There will probably be an argument that Dunn was dragging the team down. To that I respond, why would players let another player drag them down? Maybe there is something there, but we will only know in the coming months.

I never said Dunn's leaving caused the Reds' offense to improve. I was only addressing the assertion made by MANY that the Reds' offense would go into the tank without Adam Dunn. It hasn't to this point.

Adam Dunn is a fine offensive player. His game is below-average in every other aspect. He is not, IMO, worth the money he is going to receive. That is my final say on Adam Dunn.

kpresidente
09-11-2008, 06:32 PM
Some more bad news for Phillips IMO...

His 3-year splits show and .840 OPS when batting cleanup (generally, in front of Adam Dunn) and .749 when batting elsewhere.

Plus he's only OPSing .650 in August/September. Most of which is without having Dunn behind him.


I wouldn't trade him this offseason, though, unless I got a really good deal. His salary is still very reasonable and we don't need to open up another hole. Plus, his big bat against LHP is still valuable. Trade him after '09. We have youngsters who should/could be ready by then.

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 09:13 PM
Some more bad news for Phillips IMO...

His 3-year splits show and .840 OPS when batting cleanup (generally, in front of Adam Dunn) and .749 when batting elsewhere.

Plus he's only OPSing .650 in August/September. Most of which is without having Dunn behind him.


I wouldn't trade him this offseason, though, unless I got a really good deal. His salary is still very reasonable and we don't need to open up another hole. Plus, his big bat against LHP is still valuable. Trade him after '09. We have youngsters who should/could be ready by then.

Yeah, after '09, that salary becomes rathter burdensome.

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 09:16 PM
I never said Dunn's leaving caused the Reds' offense to improve. I was only addressing the assertion made by MANY that the Reds' offense would go into the tank without Adam Dunn. It hasn't to this point.

Adam Dunn is a fine offensive player. His game is below-average in every other aspect. He is not, IMO, worth the money he is going to receive. That is my final say on Adam Dunn.

Ok, that's fair. I just wanted to ensure that no one was saying Dunn leaving the would have a direct positive impact on the Reds offense.

At best an indirect impact, but I would call even that a contentious notion.

redsbuckeye
09-11-2008, 09:17 PM
ok.. but almost half of the ones infront of him in those stats either havent played a whole season.. soo being marginally better than bphill leaves NO concrete proof they will be better in the long run.. some are dropping off because of their age.. and some havent played a whole year due to injury...

Their time playing is still better, bar none.

ChatterRed
09-12-2008, 02:48 AM
Yeah, it has NOTHING to do with playing crappy teams.

And, you might want to go back and check, we haven't done EITHER score OR win on any kind of consistent basis at all. We swept the Giants - WOOO-FRICKIN-HOO!!! Two blown saves by Chicago and Milwaukee, or we aren't even having this conversation.

We can't beat the Pirates, let alone the Cards, Astros, Cubs or Milwaukee.

You want to see what we've become - look at yesterday's game. A fluke 3-run HR from our leadoff hitter, otherwise we're shut out. Then we blow the lead.

We've won a few games thanks to HR's by Votto/Bruce/EE, otherwise, we have about ZERO offense when we're facing any team not named the Pirates or Giants. I'd be surprises if we scored over 5 runs more than 1/2 a dozen times since Dunn left.


PEACE

-BLEEDS

If "if's" were fish and "but's" were fries.......you'd have a heckuva fish fry going.

I typically like your comments BLEEDS, but labeling HR's flukes and our remaining power hitters home runs our only offense..........go look at other teams and anyone could do the same thing. That's nuts.

And last time I checked, we just took 2 of 3 from the Cubs and 2 of 3 from the Brewers AND "IF" WEATHERS DOESN'T BLOW THE SAVE......BLAH, BLAH, BLAH...........we win 3 of 3 from the Brewers!!!!

See? Anyone can play that game. :D:thumbup::beerme:;):p: