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Kc61
09-12-2008, 01:22 AM
While the defensive positions of some remain unclear, this is a pretty interesting group. Alphabetically, Francisco, Frazier, Rosales, Soto, Waring.

Interested in folks' views, as to offensive and defensive potential.

Mario-Rijo
09-12-2008, 03:25 AM
While the defensive positions of some remain unclear, this is a pretty interesting group. Alphabetically, Francisco, Frazier, Rosales, Soto, Waring.

Interested in folks' views, as to offensive and defensive potential.

This is my gods honest opinion right at this juncture, it could change but I don't believe it will much if at all.

Francisco - Has no MLB future unless his discipline improves a great deal.
Waring - Has probably even less of a chance than Francisco IMO.
Rosales - an average all around major league UT man

Frazier - Good all around 3B or LF probably the latter due to a bit shaky glove. I'm thinking a Mike Cuddyer type in LF for a long time. He could be a bit better but I am going with my gut on this one, floor is Cuddyer, ceiling a bit better.

Soto - The position almost has to be the reverse of Frazier so whoever goes to LF the other stays here, tough to say. Frazier has slightly better wheels based on what I have heard here so Soto stays at 3B and is a better than average to All-Star 3B. Think Edwin but with better offensive skills and hopefully not the defensive issues.

mac624
09-12-2008, 10:22 AM
I'd personally love to see Fransico or Waring moved to catcher. I just hate to waste all that power. Sure, they are an end of the order hitter, but the power #s are legit for both these guys. However, they look to both be big strikeout/big power guys and as we've seen with Dunn and others, that's not how you win consistantly. If Merasco (sp?) does turn out to be the hitter people project him to be, it would be great to have one of these power guys as his backup and on the bench.

Kc61
09-12-2008, 11:12 AM
[QUOTE=Mario-Rijo;1738901]

Francisco - Has no MLB future unless his discipline improves a great deal.
[QUOTE]

You know all this talk about Francisco's low walk rate? It's true. But Neftali Soto's walk rate at Dayton was lower this year. Soto walked 7 times in 218 at bats. Even combined with Billings, his walk rate was about the same as Francisco's. All told, Soto walked 11 times in 285 at bats this year.

They are both free swingers. Soto, however, had a BA about 50 points higher which positively impacted his OBP and OPS. He also strikes out less. Makes more contact.

Francisco, on the other hand, even with a BA 50 points lower, had a SLG about the same as Soto's. This is because Francisco hit for more power. Francisco had 23 homers in 516 at bats. Soto had 11 homers in 285 at bats. They both had a lot of doubles.

And, of course, Francisco was playing in the "bad for offense" FSL.
And, of course, Francisco reputedly is an excellent defensive prospect with a cannon arm while Soto is reputedly not a special fielder with no clear position.

Different kinds of hitters. Both free swingers. Soto potentially a better all around bat. Francisco potentially a better home run bat. Francisco potentially a better defender.

If Francisco, Soto, and Frazier all were to make the Reds, the one playing third would likely be Francisco. The others would likely have other positions.

IMO, while there are differences among them, Francisco, Soto and Frazier are fairly closely bunched as prospects, with different strengths and weakness, assuming you include defensive potential.

I see Rosales as a utility guy who, over time, could earn a full position. Could be a successful overachiever.

Think Waring is underrated as a prospect and can make it too. He had a good year and I understand he can field pretty well at third.

Bottom line -- some won't end up at third, but these five provide a lot of depth in the system.

OnBaseMachine
09-12-2008, 11:22 AM
For me, Frazier and Soto rank well ahead of Francisco. Yeah Soto doesn't walk a lot but he also doesn't chase everything like Francisco. Then why doesn't he walk more? Because he often puts the ball in play. Francisco has exceptional power but he's got a lot of work to do if he wants to become a major league starter.

HokieRed
09-12-2008, 12:23 PM
Generally agree with the assessments so far but I think we need to see what Francisco does next year. He could hit 30 plus home runs easily. It's hard to teach power; some of the other things can be taught. I think we'll know a lot more about him by this time next year, after he's been out of the FSL a year.

Kc61
09-12-2008, 01:37 PM
For me, Frazier and Soto rank well ahead of Francisco. Yeah Soto doesn't walk a lot but he also doesn't chase everything like Francisco. Then why doesn't he walk more? Because he often puts the ball in play. Francisco has exceptional power but he's got a lot of work to do if he wants to become a major league starter.

So does Soto. So does Frazier. For these two are guys -- and the Reds have plenty of them -- who have good offensive ability but are not exceptional defenders and currently have unsettled defensive positions.

I've read the defensive write-up on Soto and he seems to be an average infielder with perhaps a strong enough arm to make it at third base. Francisco was named best defensive third baseman in the Florida State League in at least one publication I saw. He likely has the best throwing arm in the Reds organization for infielders and other strong defensive attributes.

So you need to look at the whole package. Again, if there ever comes a time when Soto, Francisco, and Frazier are with the Reds, the guy playing third is likely to be Francisco.

I'll try not to say this too often this winter because I'm sure it is getting boring, but Francisco is massively underrated around here because of OBP, which is one statistic, one barometer. I think he'll be a big time player. He needs two more years of seasoning.

OnBaseMachine
09-12-2008, 01:43 PM
I like Juan Francisco but unless he can improve upon that 19 BB/123 K ratio he'll never make it in the majors. The higher he moves up the more problems he'll have unless he can learn some plate discipline.

Kc61
09-12-2008, 01:47 PM
I like Juan Francisco but unless he can improve upon that 19 BB/123 K ratio he'll never make it in the majors. The higher he moves up the more problems he'll have unless he can learn some plate discipline.


I could say the same thing for Soto using his K/AB numbers. As for strikeouts, Francisco improved dramatically this year over last. He strikes out more than Soto, but he's also much more of a power hitter at this stage. Those guys tend to strike out more.

And Francisco consistently seems to hit for a decent batting average in the .270 range. So he makes decent contact for a slugger.

I see Soto as a more consistent hitting prospect, good power, without a real position. Francisco is a lower BA guy, a true power guy, less consistent, better defense.

Different, but the gap isn't as large as some would indicate. As for predictions about future development, whether Francisco will improve his plate discipline, I hope so but have no idea nor does anyone else, really.

AmarilloRed
09-12-2008, 02:00 PM
I have heard Francisco is a good defender at third. If he can sort out his discipline issue, he could be a good third baseman.

dougdirt
09-12-2008, 02:02 PM
I could say the same thing for Soto using his K/AB numbers. As for strikeouts, Francisco improved dramatically this year over last. He strikes out more than Soto, but he's also much more of a power hitter at this stage. Those guys tend to strike out more.

And Francisco consistently seems to hit for a decent batting average in the .270 range. So he makes decent contact for a slugger.

I see Soto as a more consistent hitting prospect, good power, without a real position. Francisco is a lower BA guy, a true power guy, less consistent, better defense.

Different, but the gap isn't as large as some would indicate. As for predictions about future development, whether Francisco will improve his plate discipline, I hope so but have no idea nor does anyone else, really.

This difference with Soto and Francisco in the BB/K thing is Soto doesn't swing at everything, he just makes contact with a lot in the zone. Francisco swings at everything. That makes a big difference when going forward.

OnBaseMachine
09-12-2008, 02:05 PM
This difference with Soto and Francisco in the BB/K thing is Soto doesn't swing at everything, he just makes contact with a lot in the zone. Francisco swings at everything. That makes a big difference when going forward.

Exactly.

Redman15
09-12-2008, 02:48 PM
Francisco has a cannon for an arm. He has more power than any other prospect
in the organization. He could the next Ryan Howard from the Phillies who has hit
43 bombs already this year. He is still young. I've seen him hit some balls in Dayton
off the buildings in right and right center that just blew me away.

dougdirt
09-12-2008, 03:34 PM
Francisco has a cannon for an arm. He has more power than any other prospect
in the organization. He could the next Ryan Howard from the Phillies who has hit
43 bombs already this year. He is still young. I've seen him hit some balls in Dayton
off the buildings in right and right center that just blew me away.

Francisco has a cannon for an arm, but isn't very good at the corner. His weight is becoming an issue and its causing range problems as well. He does have more power than anyone in the system, which is always a plus. However for him to become anything like Ryan Howard he is going to need to walk a whole lot more.

Superdude
09-12-2008, 03:34 PM
Francisco's a lot like Phillips in that he's gotta do all the work and mash if he wants to be productive. Can he hold onto his power and keep his K rates down as he moves up to levels where pitchers can throw a slider around his ankles over and over? Next year should tell us a lot.

New Fever
09-12-2008, 04:05 PM
Francisco has a cannon for an arm, but isn't very good at the corner.

He was named the best defensive third baseman in the Florida State League though.

dougdirt
09-12-2008, 05:06 PM
He was named the best defensive third baseman in the Florida State League though.

Yeah, and Derek Jeter was named best defensive shortstop in the AL three times. Francisco has the potential to be a good third baseman, but he is growing his way off of the position. Joey Votto was named best defensive first baseman in the minors for his league once, and while I think he is fine at first, others want him moved. I just don't think Francisco is all that good over there currently.

Kingspoint
09-14-2008, 12:45 AM
The best Right-handed batter on the Major League club is also a 3rd Baseman and he happens to be 2 years away from his peak year still. Nothing short of an OPS of .840+ every year for the next 4 years is expected using every formula that's out there.

While probably somewhere around 15 errors is the norm for a 3rd Baseman I would think, his 7 errors above that (22 on the year) are something we can hope will decrease next season. He's displays often some mad defensive skills, like the double-play he started a couple nights ago.

I can't see Jockety moving EE over the next 2 years as he's cheap and he hits well, and is our best Right-handed power. It's got to be a 20-1 shot that EE gets moved before the end of the 2011 season, and probably not before the end of the 2012 season.

Kc61
09-14-2008, 03:03 PM
While probably somewhere around 15 errors is the norm for a 3rd Baseman I would think, his 7 errors above that (22 on the year) are something we can hope will decrease next season. He's displays often some mad defensive skills, like the double-play he started a couple nights ago.

.

I would guess that Walt will not stick with EE at third. Walt must know that the defense is poor and needs fixing and, upon reviewing the stats, the number that leaps off the page is EE's error total. I think Walt wants a third baseman with fewer than EE's 23 errors (I doubt the average starting third baseman makes as many as 15.) My guess is that it is a priority of Walt's to stop the defensive bleeding at this position.

As for EE's "mad" defensive skills, watch any major league third baseman and there will be numerous good plays over a season because they all tend to have excellent reflexes. I've seen the "range factor" stats and EE's unfortunately aren't outstanding.

EE may have a future with the ballclub, maybe an important one. He is reputedly a hard worker and gives the team some righty hitting which it needs. I would like to see him stay in the lineup. But I also think a position change will be explored.

However, with all the pipeline talent, there is nobody ready to step into EE's third base position. So I expect a trade for a third baseman to be a strong possibility this winter, Beltre being the obvious candidate.

kpresidente
09-14-2008, 04:50 PM
I don't see how anything that amounts to a straight Beltre for Encarnacion swap would be good for the Reds future.

Player for player, it's OK, but that salary is pretty prohibitive when all you're talking about is a defensive upgrade.

Kc61
09-14-2008, 06:01 PM
I don't see how anything that amounts to a straight Beltre for Encarnacion swap would be good for the Reds future.

Player for player, it's OK, but that salary is pretty prohibitive when all you're talking about is a defensive upgrade.

First off, nobody is saying that's the deal. Nobody is even saying EE would go in the trade. Beltre has a high salary but the Reds could offset some if, for example, they included Freel's contract in the trade, which the Mariners ought to be willing to do.

Secondly, Beltre is a free agent after next year. I don't know what deal would be in the offing after that. Worse comes to worse, Reds could let him go for draft choices or trade him next deadline for more kids. More likely, Jocketty would find a way to sign him, as he commonly did in St. Louis.

Thirdly, EE will only be cheap for a couple more years himself. He may even be arbitration eligible after next year, I'm not sure.

But mostly, the Reds now should have some salary room. They do have some escalating salaries, but have just given up the Griffey and Dunn contracts. They can afford to spend on one or two guys this off-season.

Beltre, to me, is a great candidate because he accomplishes two things at once. Adds righty power and improves defense at third. And if the Reds can make the trade without including EE, maybe he moves to left field and helps out there.

Lockdwn11
09-15-2008, 04:44 AM
I would guess that Walt will not stick with EE at third. Walt must know that the defense is poor and needs fixing and, upon reviewing the stats, the number that leaps off the page is EE's error total. I think Walt wants a third baseman with fewer than EE's 23 errors (I doubt the average starting third baseman makes as many as 15.) My guess is that it is a priority of Walt's to stop the defensive bleeding at this position.

As for EE's "mad" defensive skills, watch any major league third baseman and there will be numerous good plays over a season because they all tend to have excellent reflexes. I've seen the "range factor" stats and EE's unfortunately aren't outstanding.

EE may have a future with the ballclub, maybe an important one. He is reputedly a hard worker and gives the team some righty hitting which it needs. I would like to see him stay in the lineup. But I also think a position change will be explored.

However, with all the pipeline talent, there is nobody ready to step into EE's third base position. So I expect a trade for a third baseman to be a strong possibility this winter, Beltre being the obvious candidate.

KC don't mean to demean you here but if you have indeed taken the time to look at EE's range factor #'s (and I assume the rest of the league as well) then why in the world would you not glance at the error totals for every 3rd basemen. If you had you would know for fact instead of doubting that the average 3rd basemen in baseball over a full season usually has 15-20 errors. I hate to harp on this issue but EE as poor as he has been is still only 25 years old and has a very good glove down there. I know it's been 3 years and EE has seemingly not improved but if he just stops that throwing issue his glove might be better than a majority of 3B in baseball.

What's really interesting about him is he almost never makes a bad throw when he just reacts, but when he has time to let his mechanics get sloppy they often do. That too me is just diligence about staying on him but not in such a way to keep his confidence down. I think and this may be a bit of a reach but worth looking into, that if you could figure out what his issues are at the plate (I still maintain he needs glasses) that it would lead to better play in the field. His lack of confidence overall hurts his fielding IMO because he is playing so tentative on defense that he screws up his mechanics.

But bottom line his value is still pretty good considering his age, upside and price tag. Why get rid of him or move him off that spot when he could still pan out and perhaps just in time for his prime years. We will feel pretty silly if he finally figures things out to become a beast down there at 3rd if we let him go. I say get him an eye exam and some good coaching which again should be addressed big time by Walt this off-season.

Kc61
09-15-2008, 10:13 AM
KC don't mean to demean you here but if you have indeed taken the time to look at EE's range factor #'s (and I assume the rest of the league as well) then why in the world would you not glance at the error totals for every 3rd basemen. If you had you would know for fact instead of doubting that the average 3rd basemen in baseball over a full season usually has 15-20 errors. I hate to harp on this issue but EE as poor as he has been is still only 25 years old and has a very good glove down there. I know it's been 3 years and EE has seemingly not improved but if he just stops that throwing issue his glove might be better than a majority of 3B in baseball.

.

I did "glance" at the numbers.

Right now, there are eight third basemen in the major leagues with 15 errors or more. That's eight among all third basemen on all 30 teams.

Right now, there are three third basemen in major league baseball with 20 errors or more. Crede with 20, EE with 23, Reynolds with 29. So EE has the second most errors of any third sacker in major league baseball.

Now, you may say that other third basemen (those with 13 errors or 14 errors) may make additional errors in the next two weeks, so some others might get to 15. True.

But EE, currently with 23, also may make additional errors. Equally true.

As for the "range factor" mentioned in your post, Melvin Mora leads third basemen with 2.90. EE is way down the list at 2.22, according to ESPN.

As for EE's youth, he has now played 463 major league games. His fielding percentage this year, his most experienced year, is .926.

You say that EE has a "very good glove" down at third base. Please provide the statistics that reflect this.

HokieRed
09-15-2008, 11:40 AM
I've been a big EE supporter for years, but it's time to recognize that his defense is not improving. On the other hand, he is a productive player offensively and is moving into what ought to be the best years of his career. He'd be much more valuable, obviously, as a third baseman than as an outfielder if he could only play the position--but he can't and he won't any better than he is right now. So the options are 1. Keep him at 3d; he's cheap and productive, though a defensive liability of major proportions; 2. Move him to LF instead of looking for a free agent or trade possibility there; 3. Move him to first and move Votto to LF. 4. Trade him. The choice depends on several other contingencies: who's available to sign or trade for in LF; how quickly Alonso develops--assuming his ultimate position is first with Votto in LF; what the righty-lefty dynamics become as some of the other needs are filled--C, CF, SS, maybe 2b if Phillips is traded. I doubt we'll see the answer on EE until some of these other questions are answered. My guess, however, is that he will be next year's left fielder on opening day.

Dan
09-15-2008, 12:16 PM
You know all this talk about Francisco's low walk rate? It's true. But Neftali Soto's walk rate at Dayton was lower this year. Soto walked 7 times in 218 at bats. Even combined with Billings, his walk rate was about the same as Francisco's. All told, Soto walked 11 times in 285 at bats this year.

But you can't just look at walk rate. You have to look at a player's strikeout/walk ratio. Any worse than 3/1 and the player's got some development to do before he'll really be ML ready.

Soto's is 4/1
Fransisco's is 6/1

To me, this means we shouldn't count on Soto as much, but his BABIP somewhat offsets his BB/SO rate, so I'm thinking he'll be a B hitter in the majors. (Fernando Tatis, maybe?)

Fransisco's BB/SO rate, combined with his dismal BABIP suggest a player with absolutely no discipline at all. MLB pitchers would eat him alive and unless something drastic changes, he's got no future in the ML.

Will M
09-15-2008, 02:01 PM
First off, nobody is saying that's the deal. Nobody is even saying EE would go in the trade. Beltre has a high salary but the Reds could offset some if, for example, they included Freel's contract in the trade, which the Mariners ought to be willing to do.

Secondly, Beltre is a free agent after next year. I don't know what deal would be in the offing after that. Worse comes to worse, Reds could let him go for draft choices or trade him next deadline for more kids. More likely, Jocketty would find a way to sign him, as he commonly did in St. Louis.

Thirdly, EE will only be cheap for a couple more years himself. He may even be arbitration eligible after next year, I'm not sure.

But mostly, the Reds now should have some salary room. They do have some escalating salaries, but have just given up the Griffey and Dunn contracts. They can afford to spend on one or two guys this off-season.

Beltre, to me, is a great candidate because he accomplishes two things at once. Adds righty power and improves defense at third. And if the Reds can make the trade without including EE, maybe he moves to left field and helps out there.

I'm with you. Getting Beltre with EE moving to LF is my plan to fix the 2009 Reds.

The way things stand right now we need a left fielder. Our defense at SS &
3B is substandard. I can't see us with Gonzo at SS & EE at 3B next year.
The Beltre trade adds an above average RH power bat, improves the infield defense & may help EE ( if he worries less about his defense he may hit better ). If we keep EE at 3B and try to get a better SS we have a lot of issues. First we still need a bat for LF. Second we are stuck with Gonzo's $5M salary with no place to play. Third - who do we get. JJ Hardy may be available but the price will be way to high. No one else who is available can hit worth a lick.

Kc61
09-15-2008, 03:34 PM
I'm with you. Getting Beltre with EE moving to LF is my plan to fix the 2009 Reds.

The way things stand right now we need a left fielder. Our defense at SS &
3B is substandard. I can't see us with Gonzo at SS & EE at 3B next year.
The Beltre trade adds an above average RH power bat, improves the infield defense & may help EE ( if he worries less about his defense he may hit better ). If we keep EE at 3B and try to get a better SS we have a lot of issues. First we still need a bat for LF. Second we are stuck with Gonzo's $5M salary with no place to play. Third - who do we get. JJ Hardy may be available but the price will be way to high. No one else who is available can hit worth a lick.

Keep in mind that the Reds may start to plan for Yonder Alonso at first base. That would mean Votto in left. Which makes it hard to find a new position for EE.

They could move EE to first base for next year, which would be an obvious stopgap move awaiting Alonso. Or they could move EE to left field, and hold off moving Votto out there one more year.

It may be that somebody will get traded because everyone can't play left field or first base.

Will M
09-15-2008, 04:01 PM
Keep in mind that the Reds may start to plan for Yonder Alonso at first base. That would mean Votto in left. Which makes it hard to find a new position for EE.

They could move EE to first base for next year, which would be an obvious stopgap move awaiting Alonso. Or they could move EE to left field, and hold off moving Votto out there one more year.

It may be that somebody will get traded because everyone can't play left field or first base.

IMO Alonso is nothing more than a good prospect at this point. Lots of guys drafted in the top ten never have success in the bigs. IF EE goes to left and plays well & Votto improves on his rookie campaign & Alonso is the real deal then the Reds will have a decision to make next offseason and have a nice trading chip to fix a hole elsewhere.

Kingspoint
09-15-2008, 05:29 PM
When someone can come up with a concrete, specific BETTER solution than Edwin at 3rd Base, I'll listen. Otherwise, it's just the normal complaining that goes along with consecutive losing seasons. Nothing wrong with that, but EE's one of the best Right-Handed players the REDS have going into 2009. 3rd Base isn't the place to be looking for improvements for this team, nor is EE any of the reasons why the REDS were mediocre.

The REDS are playing great right now. EE's continuing to hit. What's the problem?

TC81190
09-15-2008, 05:55 PM
When someone can come up with a concrete, specific BETTER solution than Edwin at 3rd Base, I'll listen. Otherwise, it's just the normal complaining that goes along with consecutive losing seasons. Nothing wrong with that, but EE's one of the best Right-Handed players the REDS have going into 2009. 3rd Base isn't the place to be looking for improvements for this team, nor is EE any of the reasons why the REDS were mediocre.

The REDS are playing great right now. EE's continuing to hit. What's the problem?
The defense. Sure, offensively, he's the best right handed hitter on the team. But on the field, he's still having problems with errors.

mth123
09-15-2008, 07:56 PM
I'm not really in favor of a move of EdE to LF or 1B. Right now he's cheap and his bat is a real plus at 3B. A move to LF makes his bat kind of Ho Hum. Even if his bat does improve, his salary will be going up as well, making the improvement a value neutral proposition. This off-season, 3B will be an in demand position and the combination of EdE's bat, his salary and the perception that he may be able to play 3B someday, probably makes his trade value as high as it will get. If the Reds think he'll always be this bad at 3B (as I am starting to believe), then I think a trade should be option number 1 with EdE. If the Reds can't acquire a stopgap along the lines of Melvin Mora, then a committee of Keppinger, Rosales and whoever (maybe a cheap pick-up on a minor league deal) can do until Frazier or some one is ready. Of course if the return is crummy, then keep him.

Mario-Rijo
09-16-2008, 03:03 AM
I did "glance" at the numbers.

Right now, there are eight third basemen in the major leagues with 15 errors or more. That's eight among all third basemen on all 30 teams.

Right now, there are three third basemen in major league baseball with 20 errors or more. Crede with 20, EE with 23, Reynolds with 29. So EE has the second most errors of any third sacker in major league baseball.

Now, you may say that other third basemen (those with 13 errors or 14 errors) may make additional errors in the next two weeks, so some others might get to 15. True.

But EE, currently with 23, also may make additional errors. Equally true.

As for the "range factor" mentioned in your post, Melvin Mora leads third basemen with 2.90. EE is way down the list at 2.22, according to ESPN.

As for EE's youth, he has now played 463 major league games. His fielding percentage this year, his most experienced year, is .926.

You say that EE has a "very good glove" down at third base. Please provide the statistics that reflect this.

1st I must apologize the post you responded to was mine, I was at my sister and bro-in-laws house and forgot to sign him out (Lockdwn11) before I responded.

That said it's common knowledge that the majority of EE's issues are of the throwing variety. That in itself makes his glove good enough, to what degree though is the point. Let's take a look and see if we can determine it.

Throwing: 15

Fielding: 8

March - 1 (in 1 game played)
April - 7 (5 Throwing)
May - 1
June - 2
July - 7 (5 Throwing)
Aug - 3
Sept - 2

Look take away those 10 throwing errors I have in parentheses just for a moment. That's 13 errors total, 5 throwing, 8 fielding a pretty good defensive 3rd baseman who has his share of random mistakes. Now when he is at his worst from time to time he will get erratic with his throws, why? An interesting thing stood out to me while perusing the errors. Edwin hit pretty well (the month) when he wasn't fielding well and vice versa. Perhaps when he intently focuses on 1 part of his game the other part slips.

Other defensive info of note:

Bruce: 1st error on June 11 - 3rd July 28th - (FT Starter Aug 1st) - 8th, 9th errors on Sept 5th. 5 ttl errors in August.

Votto 9th error July 6, only 2 since.

BP - 5 of his 7 errors after the AS break and had a 70+ games streak of errorless games during the season.

Since Jr and Dunn have gone only Bruce has been below average in committing errors, again since his playing time increased.

Mario-Rijo
09-16-2008, 03:39 AM
I did "glance" at the numbers.

Right now, there are eight third basemen in the major leagues with 15 errors or more. That's eight among all third basemen on all 30 teams.

Right now, there are three third basemen in major league baseball with 20 errors or more. Crede with 20, EE with 23, Reynolds with 29. So EE has the second most errors of any third sacker in major league baseball.

Now, you may say that other third basemen (those with 13 errors or 14 errors) may make additional errors in the next two weeks, so some others might get to 15. True.

But EE, currently with 23, also may make additional errors. Equally true.

As for the "range factor" mentioned in your post, Melvin Mora leads third basemen with 2.90. EE is way down the list at 2.22, according to ESPN.

As for EE's youth, he has now played 463 major league games. His fielding percentage this year, his most experienced year, is .926.

You say that EE has a "very good glove" down at third base. Please provide the statistics that reflect this.

I guess I only scratched the surface of this post with my last one. I'll answer one at a time.

Only 8? That's over a 4th of the league bordering on a 1/3 of the league if you take into consideration players missing time with injuries and the like who have not played enough games, innings. However let's just split the difference between that and players who will eventually end up with 15 or more. EE is 9th in MLB in total chances with 311 opportunities, 6th in games played and innings. So in essence you should expect more errors with more opportunities. BTW Reynolds is just ahead of EE in these categories and now has 30 errors, just a side note.

Range Factor aside for a second, answer this honestly. Have you ever said to yourself while watching him play, "EE just doesn't have enough range down there". I don't really see a big issue with his range even though the numbers say I should. Perhaps it's a result of him not having a SS with a lick of range playing next to him. It's just a thought but he cannot cover the whole left side of the IF, maybe that has hurt him some IDK.

Bottom line is we all know he's no great shakes down there and I imagine people are getting weary of seeing the issues but with an .800+ ops from the right side in this offense at his age and cost I see no reason to be hasty unless we automatically somehow become contenders in the offseason. I don't have an issue with trading him but realize that you are dealing away a good value with some upside still and you are likely going to pay thru the nose to upgrade at that position in dollars and possibly even talent as well. Money and talent that could go to more immediate and/or serious issues.

BTW Crede, a guy with a good defensive reputation is pretty foul this season and worse than EE with those 20 errors in far less chances/games/innings.

Kc61
09-16-2008, 08:58 AM
I guess I only scratched the surface of this post with my last one. I'll answer one at a time.

EE is 9th in MLB in total chances with 311 opportunities, 6th in games played and innings. So in essence you should expect more errors with more opportunities. BTW Reynolds is just ahead of EE in these categories and now has 30 errors, just a side note.

Range Factor aside for a second, answer this honestly. Have you ever said to yourself while watching him play, "EE just doesn't have enough range down there". I don't really see a big issue with his range even though the numbers say I should. Perhaps it's a result of him not having a SS with a lick of range playing next to him. It's just a thought but he cannot cover the whole left side of the IF, maybe that has hurt him some IDK.

Bottom line is we all know he's no great shakes down there and I imagine people are getting weary of seeing the issues but with an .800+ ops from the right side in this offense at his age and cost I see no reason to be hasty unless we automatically somehow become contenders in the offseason. I don't have an issue with trading him but realize that you are dealing away a good value with some upside still and you are likely going to pay thru the nose to upgrade at that position in dollars and possibly even talent as well. Money and talent that could go to more immediate and/or serious issues.

BTW Crede, a guy with a good defensive reputation is pretty foul this season and worse than EE with those 20 errors in far less chances/games/innings.

Your total chances point doesn't help EE. He is near the bottom in fielding percentage with .926. This statistic factors in the number of chances and looks at errors as a percentage. EE is near the bottom.

And if you look at the actual numbers, Crede has a higher fielding percentage than EE this year. Crede does have fewer innings and 27 fewer chances. But he actually has more assists than EE and three fewer errors.

As for EE's range, I suggest that watching him and "not having an issue" is no substitute for a more refined analysis. And the statistics I've seen are not favorable to EE.

As for his bat, as many others have said, if EE can't play third defensively and has to move to left field or first base, he's not as compelling an offensive threat. He may be above average offensively as a third baseman, but it's a different story comparing him to good hitting first basemen or left fielders.

Kingspoint
09-16-2008, 10:40 PM
The defense. Sure, offensively, he's the best right handed hitter on the team. But on the field, he's still having problems with errors.


He played half a season in 2005. His first full season in 2006 he had 25 errors. He cut those down to 16 the next season, last year in 2007. He's back to the mid-20's in errors, so he's had one year of regression which had followed one year of improvement.

Wade Boggs was a crappy 3rd Baseman defensively until he was in his 30's. Then he won 2 Gold Gloves.

REDS' fans need more patience with EE. Let's see what happens next year defensively.

Again, we are winning right now, and EE is a big reason for that. Nice 3-run Double tonight.

Kingspoint
09-16-2008, 10:46 PM
We also haven't had any Gold Glove 1st Baseman since Edwin was here. Votto's not exactly helping EE as much as someone else might. A lot of a 3rd Baseman's throwing errors are reduced by the quality of the 1st Baseman.

That will be better next season, also as Votto improves. EE did have only 16 errors last season with Veterans at 1st Base.

Kingspoint
09-17-2008, 12:35 AM
There's no more need to discuss who the REDS 3rd Baseman should be in 2009 and 2010.

This statistic alone ends the discussion...

There are 16 Teams in the National League. How many Right-Handers do you think are starters? Probably 3 per team?

Of all the Right-Handers that have enough at-bats to qualify for a batting championship (3.1 AB's per game player's team has played), EE ranks 17th in the NL among Right-Handers in OPS.

If every team had 1 Right-hander that was better, then he would be the 1st among the 16 #2's, and better than everyone's #3's and #4's, etc. But, since some teams, like the Cubs who have 4 of the Top 15 and the Cards who have 2 of the Top 13 and the Marlins who have 2 of the Top 9, EE's a better Right-handed bat than 1/3 of the Teams in the National League.

Here are the NL teams that do not have anyone on it (who qualifies as a starter with 3.1 PA's per game player's team has played) that is a better Right-handed bat than EE. And you want to replace this guy? End that discussion now. Here are the teams that do not have a Right-handed bat this good:

BTW, EE's OPS is .820 (and a career .809).

Cincinnati...have to include them because after EE, the best Right-handed bat is #28 Brandon Phillips and after that there isn't anybody who has enough at-bats to qualify (because they're not good enough to get enough at-bats).

San Diego...their best is #34 Kevin Kouzmanoff at a horrific .738.

San Francisco...their best is #27 Aaron Rowand at a dismal .762. Rowand is 31 years old.

Los Angeles...their best is #22 Matt Kemp at .784. At 24 years of age, that's a worse number than any of EE's last 3 years and Edwin is only 20 months older than Kemp.

Pittsburgh...their best is #38 Freddy Sanchez at a paltry .622....200 points less than EE's.

Atlanta...their best is #25 Yunel Escobar at .767 and he's 10 months older than EE, and that's if you believe Cuban birth records.

EE's only going to be better at OPS each of the next 2 seasons propelling him into the Top-12 each year...and he's cheap.

And of Right-Handed National League 3rd Basemen who qualify as starters? Only David Wright, Aramis Ramirez and Troy Glaus have higher OPS'. He's got a great chance to catch Glaus next year have the 3rd best OPS among Right-handed 3rd Basemen next season.

Please stop the discussion about replacing EE and embrace him.

Mario-Rijo
09-17-2008, 02:15 AM
Your total chances point doesn't help EE. He is near the bottom in fielding percentage with .926. This statistic factors in the number of chances and looks at errors as a percentage. EE is near the bottom.

And if you look at the actual numbers, Crede has a higher fielding percentage than EE this year. Crede does have fewer innings and 27 fewer chances. But he actually has more assists than EE and three fewer errors.

As for EE's range, I suggest that watching him and "not having an issue" is no substitute for a more refined analysis. And the statistics I've seen are not favorable to EE.

As for his bat, as many others have said, if EE can't play third defensively and has to move to left field or first base, he's not as compelling an offensive threat. He may be above average offensively as a third baseman, but it's a different story comparing him to good hitting first basemen or left fielders.

I disagree with more chances comes more chances for error, so he is bound to have more than the average. Crede has ONLY 3 fewer errors in far less chances, but that's really here nor there.

My whole point to the matter is there is 2 sides to every coin and we here on RZ have a tendency to dwell on one side or the other but not both. In this post you are continuing the trend of dwelling on the bad with EE and that's ok, but I am just trying to point out the other side of it to make the picture whole. EE could go either way in his development even at this point, most guys get better with experience or they don't improve at all. He may not improve, but considering his whole package it's not a bad gamble even at this juncture to wait at least 1 more year. He still has what nearly 3 years before arb. (He had 2.085 service time coming into this season), what's the rush?