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camisadelgolf
01-19-2009, 04:53 AM
Fwiw, the article said that pitchers felt a need to throw the ball over the plate, which only makes Francisco's walks look better.

princeton
01-19-2009, 07:37 AM
Fwiw, the article said that pitchers felt a need to throw the ball over the plate, which only makes Francisco's walks look better.

it's the opposite.

camisadelgolf
01-19-2009, 11:20 AM
it's the opposite.

Because he was swinging at less pitches than he should have?

princeton
01-19-2009, 11:43 AM
Because he was swinging at less pitches than he should have?

it's easier to get walks when umps are calling smaller strike zones.

high walk totals by a player are more impressive when umps have expanded strike zones.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2009, 04:49 PM
You can look at it 2 ways.

His numbers are inflated because he saw so many pitches in the zone
or
His walks are inflated because the strike zone was so small.

Both couldnt really be happening because the only thing that is different about his numbers is the walk rate.

princeton
01-19-2009, 05:46 PM
You can look at it 2 ways.

His numbers are inflated because he saw so many pitches in the zone
or
His walks are inflated because the strike zone was so small.

Both couldnt really be happening because the only thing that is different about his numbers is the walk rate.


you're making it too hard for yourself.

umps are hitters' umps. so the batters should walk more (small zone) and hit better (sees fatter pitches as pitchers are forced to work on the white).

I'm happy that Francisco is hitting under any circumstances; it should help his confidence. But he'll still have to learn to deal with major league strike zones and major league arms that are in midseason form, and I suspect that he's far from doing that. you used to be able to get some of that in the winter leagues, but it sounds like that's in the past.

camisadelgolf
01-19-2009, 06:18 PM
you're making it too hard for yourself.

umps are hitters' umps. so the batters should walk more (small zone) and hit better (sees fatter pitches as pitchers are forced to work on the white).

I'm happy that Francisco is hitting under any circumstances; it should help his confidence. But he'll still have to learn to deal with major league strike zones and major league arms that are in midseason form, and I suspect that he's far from doing that. you used to be able to get some of that in the winter leagues, but it sounds like that's in the past.

If pitchers are forced to throw it over the middle of the plate, like the article says, then that's more pitches the hitters should be swinging at.

Caveat Emperor
01-19-2009, 07:05 PM
If pitchers are forced to throw it over the middle of the plate, like the article says, then that's more pitches the hitters should be swinging at.

Which should lead to more hits.

And, with a smaller strike zone, it makes pitch recognition much easier -- which should lead to more walks as well.

camisadelgolf
01-19-2009, 07:41 PM
Which should lead to more hits.

And, with a smaller strike zone, it makes pitch recognition much easier -- which should lead to more walks as well.

Well, it could lead to more walks, but if a hitter swings at pretty much everything, which Francisco is known for doing, it would theoretically decrease the walks.

Bip Roberts
01-19-2009, 08:41 PM
Well, it could lead to more walks, but if a hitter swings at pretty much everything, which Francisco is known for doing, it would theoretically decrease the walks.

Yea thats pretty much what I am saying.

His walk rate really shouldnt be going up if the pitches are in the zone given Francisco's hitting style.

princeton
01-19-2009, 09:33 PM
where's the head beating on the wall emoticon?

HokieRed
01-19-2009, 11:23 PM
princeton's right. If you're facing a guy with power and the strike zone is small, you pitch away from him much more and take your chances with other hitters. It makes strike zone judgment easier for the guy with power and he should get more walks.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2009, 12:00 AM
princeton's right. If you're facing a guy with power and the strike zone is small, you pitch away from him much more and take your chances with other hitters. It makes strike zone judgment easier for the guy with power and he should get more walks.

So Francisco magically knows how to lay off a pitch?

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2009, 12:17 AM
So Francisco magically knows how to lay off a pitch?

If it's bouncing in the dirt...

HokieRed
01-20-2009, 12:19 AM
It's a lot easier to lay off pitches that are farther out of the zone you know the umpire is calling. If the umpire has a really tight plate, the pitcher has a choice. Let's say he wants to go outside, but he knows he's not going to get a strike where he usually can--on the black, say, or even two inches outside. Why throw there? What he'll do is just go even further outside hoping the hitter, especially if he's a power hitter, will chase, but this makes it easier for the hitter to lay off if he has any discipline at all. What you'll really do is throw a lot more breaking pitches and try to go inside-outside, up-down even more than you'd ordinarily do.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2009, 12:36 AM
Then why is his k% the same? Shouldnt that have dropped as well?

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2009, 12:41 AM
Then why is his k% the same? Shouldnt that have dropped as well?

Interestingly enough we have been working with a small sample this entire conversation...

OnBaseMachine
01-20-2009, 12:43 AM
I've been very impressed with Francisco's winter. In recent games he's homered off Ervin Santana and Julian Tavarez. I don't care if the pitching is down, his winter performance is still impressive in my eyes.

dougdirt
01-20-2009, 01:01 AM
I've been very impressed with Francisco's winter. In recent games he's homered off Ervin Santana and Julian Tavarez. I don't care if the pitching is down, his winter performance is still impressive in my eyes.

Right. In a league with major leaguers in it, he still is near the top of the leader boards nearly all the way across as a 21 year old.

Mario-Rijo
01-20-2009, 03:21 AM
I've decided to give Juan a chance, Doug says he doesn't have hittability concerns (which is my main concern with him) so I'll just shut my mouth until I see different. The same with a lot of these guys who Doug has more info on than us, let's just see how they turn out.

And just so I'm clear I will say that I once took some info about Votto's bat speed not being up to par that some "pro blogger" on espn stated at the futures game a few years back and ran with it. Doug stated that Votto did not have said problem, so what I am trying to say is I am genuinely giving him the benefit of the doubt here. Just in case someone felt that I was being facetious with my initial statement.

dougdirt
01-20-2009, 04:22 AM
Let me explain what I mean on hittability.... Francisco can and will hit. Hitting isn't hit problem. Chasing bad pitches is. His problem is, he can hit bad pitches and hit them pretty well at times. He can absolutely crush ones in the zone. He will never reach his true potential unless he hones in his 'hit zone' because he just isn't going to be able to take advantage of good pitches often enough. I don't think he will be a guy who hits .230 because he chases pitches, but he could be the dreaded .270/.300/.475 type of guy if he doesn't hone in his 'hit zone' because right now he strikes out to much to rely on average to boost his OBP and he chases too much to have walks boost up the AVG enough to make a respectable OBP. He obviously has the ability because he can obviously identify pitches well enough to hit them and hit them hard. He just needs to learn, or be told, that walks are fine and his hitting numbers will very likely get better if he stops swinging so much and only swings at pitches near/in the zone.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2009, 09:40 AM
Interestingly enough we have been working with a small sample this entire conversation...

Just because its a small sample size doesnt mean certain things shouldnt change if the strike zone is as small as they are making it out to be.

*BaseClogger*
01-20-2009, 12:17 PM
Just because its a small sample size doesnt mean certain things shouldnt change if the strike zone is as small as they are making it out to be.

Sure, but Francisco's K% and BB% mean very little...

camisadelgolf
01-20-2009, 01:02 PM
Sure, but Francisco's K% and BB% mean very little...

I have to agree here. The only way we could consider taking something from the numbers is by comparing them to the rest of the league. If the rest of the league is walking at an increased rate, Francisco's walks probably don't mean anything. If the rest of the league is walking less, then Francisco's walks might mean something, but it's too soon to say.

Bip Roberts
01-20-2009, 05:45 PM
Sure, but Francisco's K% and BB% mean very little...

Dont get me wrong the sample size is small and I'm not saying he is going to have this kind of success for AA or where ever he ends up next season but shouldnt the strike zone being very small still have a global effect on his numbers? If the pitches either being forced to be in the zone more or pitchers are pitching around him all the numbers should change in some fashion no matter the sample size?

Mario-Rijo
01-20-2009, 06:17 PM
Let me explain what I mean on hittability.... Francisco can and will hit. Hitting isn't hit problem. Chasing bad pitches is. His problem is, he can hit bad pitches and hit them pretty well at times. He can absolutely crush ones in the zone. He will never reach his true potential unless he hones in his 'hit zone' because he just isn't going to be able to take advantage of good pitches often enough. I don't think he will be a guy who hits .230 because he chases pitches, but he could be the dreaded .270/.300/.475 type of guy if he doesn't hone in his 'hit zone' because right now he strikes out to much to rely on average to boost his OBP and he chases too much to have walks boost up the AVG enough to make a respectable OBP. He obviously has the ability because he can obviously identify pitches well enough to hit them and hit them hard. He just needs to learn, or be told, that walks are fine and his hitting numbers will very likely get better if he stops swinging so much and only swings at pitches near/in the zone.

Well I agree with that but with better pitching must come far better discipline than he has displayed to date or his hittability will become an issue. But I will agree that in Dayton he not only would swing at some of the worst pitches ever but at times would actually put better wood on them than expected. He is the closest thing I have ever seen to a poor mans version of Vlad but I just don't believe he will be able to maintain that going forward. He is still gonna mash anything in the zone through AA and maybe even some in AAA but I think his average will start to take a massive dip this season in AA after the league adjusts to him which in turn will hurt all his #'s accross the board. Unless of course he does what you suggest and shrinks his swinging zone, which for a regular guy is tough let alone a guy of his epic lack of discipline.

But again you seem to have good reason to be optimistic about him and you have more to go on than I so I am giving you the benefit of the doubt here.

dougdirt
01-20-2009, 06:26 PM
Well I agree with that but with better pitching must come far better discipline than he has displayed to date or his hittability will become an issue.
Thats not entirely accurate. Some guys do get better hittability as they move up because pitchers are closer to the plate more often. Francisco is the type of player who could benefit from that. He absolutely must increase the walks, but as guys get closer to the plate as he moves up, his contact rate could increase, thus leading to a higher average and higher OBP.



But I will agree that in Dayton he not only would swing at some of the worst pitches ever but at times would actually put better wood on them than expected. He is the closest thing I have ever seen to a poor mans version of Vlad but I just don't believe he will be able to maintain that going forward. He is still gonna mash anything in the zone through AA and maybe even some in AAA but I think his average will start to take a massive dip this season in AA after the league adjusts to him which in turn will hurt all his #'s accross the board. Unless of course he does what you suggest and shrinks his swinging zone, which for a regular guy is tough let alone a guy of his epic lack of discipline.
The thing that I could see happening is with such a short porch in Carolina (308 down the RF line) that his power is going to go nuts, leading to more of him being pitched around.

Another thing to note though, is if a kid that is this aggressive can just cut 2-3 inches off of his 'hit zone' it could make dramatic differences in both his walk numbers and even his hitting numbers as he is likely to start making both more contact as well as better contact.

I will say this.... I plan on doing my best to listen and talk to people who watch him every day down there than looking at his numbers next year if his numbers do what I think they are going to. What he is swinging at is more important for me going forward with him than what his numbers are going to look like.

Mario-Rijo
01-20-2009, 06:47 PM
Thats not entirely accurate. Some guys do get better hittability as they move up because pitchers are closer to the plate more often. Francisco is the type of player who could benefit from that. He absolutely must increase the walks, but as guys get closer to the plate as he moves up, his contact rate could increase, thus leading to a higher average and higher OBP.

Understood but for a free swinger it can't be good for him to go somewhere that might give him a false sense of security. The likelihood of him swinging less with more pitches near the zone isn't good to begin with. Then couple that with the fact that he will start to get pitches that appear here and consistently break every which way and harder, faster etc. than he's ever seen doesn't bode well in theory.


The thing that I could see happening is with such a short porch in Carolina (308 down the RF line) that his power is going to go nuts, leading to more of him being pitched around.

Another thing to note though, is if a kid that is this aggressive can just cut 2-3 inches off of his 'hit zone' it could make dramatic differences in both his walk numbers and even his hitting numbers as he is likely to start making both more contact as well as better contact.

I will say this.... I plan on doing my best to listen and talk to people who watch him every day down there than looking at his numbers next year if his numbers do what I think they are going to. What he is swinging at is more important for me going forward with him than what his numbers are going to look like.

I couldn't agree more.

Scrap Irony
01-20-2009, 10:53 PM
Body shape, too, has become important for Francisco. If he gets in shape (other than pear or round), I think the Red will see it as a sign of his ability to work on baseball as well. If he decides to stay large and in charge, you may see him dealt soon.

Very few of Jocketty's trade and free agent acquisitions were out of shape and most were considered extreme in their work ethic, specifically on their bodies.

backbencher
01-23-2009, 09:17 PM
Very few of Jocketty's trade and free agent acquisitions were out of shape and most were considered extreme in their work ethic, specifically on their bodies.

Jay McGwire agrees!

OnBaseMachine
01-30-2009, 12:25 AM
Tigres del Licey knocked off Gigantes del Cibao to win the Dominican Winter Legaue Championship and advance on to the 2009 Caribbean World Series. THE CWS begins on Monday with MLB network televising the games. I was really hoping Gigantes would advance on so we could watch Juan Francisco on TV. It doesn't look like any Reds players will be playing in the CWS. Oh well, I'll still be watching.

corkedbat
01-30-2009, 01:19 AM
Tigres del Licey knocked off Gigantes del Cibao to win the Dominican Winter Legaue Championship and advance on to the 2009 Caribbean World Series. THE CWS begins on Monday with MLB network televising the games. I was really hoping Gigantes would advance on so we could watch Juan Francisco on TV. It doesn't look like any Reds players will be playing in the CWS. Oh well, I'll still be watching.

What were Juan's final DWL numbers?

dougdirt
01-30-2009, 01:37 AM
What were Juan;s final DWL numbers?

Regular season
.360/.419/.665 - 161 AB

Playoffs
.311/.388/.578 - 90 AB

corkedbat
01-30-2009, 02:37 AM
Regular season
.360/.419/.665 - 161 AB

Playoffs
.311/.388/.578 - 90 AB

Thanks!

Cooper
01-30-2009, 03:14 PM
I'd like to combine Juan's DWL stats (both from the regular season and the playoffs) and combine them with his last 350 at bats from this season. Thought being that this would be his last 600 at bats and you could derive where he's at (and maybe where he's going). Can anybody help me out?

camisadelgolf
01-30-2009, 04:17 PM
I'd like to combine Juan's DWL stats (both from the regular season and the playoffs) and combine them with his last 350 at bats from this season. Thought being that this would be his last 600 at bats and you could derive where he's at (and maybe where he's going). Can anybody help me out?

Here's a start:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/index.html

I don't have time to do it myself, or else I would, but take the last three months of his stats from minorleagesplits.com, and then combine that with his last 45 at-bats from May. Unfortunately, I don't know of a place where you can split up his 2008 stats like that.

dougdirt
01-30-2009, 04:33 PM
I'd like to combine Juan's DWL stats (both from the regular season and the playoffs) and combine them with his last 350 at bats from this season. Thought being that this would be his last 600 at bats and you could derive where he's at (and maybe where he's going). Can anybody help me out?

Over his last 601 PA (556 AB)
.300/.348/.559 with 33 HR, 32 BB and 135 K.