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View Full Version : My view on the Reds farm system by position (very long read)



dougdirt
09-23-2008, 05:10 PM
Catcher
Looking at the position there are two guys who really stand out from the rest currently. Devin Mesoraco, 2007’s first round draft pick and Ryan Hanigan who hit very well for Louisville and has been in Cincinnati for the last month. Mesoraco is coming off a solid season given his age and the league he was playing in. He is still far away, but he has upside and showed signs of the potential he was drafted for. Hanigan on the other end of the spectrum is a bit old, but he showed a solid bat with low strikeouts and good defense.

In the middle of those two guys are Craig Tatum, Alvin Colina, Chris Denove, Eddy Rodriguez, Jake Long and Justin Tordi. Craig Tatum has the upside but hasn’t been able to put it together yet and he is reaching an age where he really needs to make that next step. The rest of the guys at this point come off as organizational filler.

The Reds have one guy going into next year that will start in the minors who can be seen as a legit catching prospect and its Devin Mesoraco. Catching across the minors is tough to come by (heck, its tough to come by in the majors for that matter), but the Reds do have a lack of real options for the future at the position. Overall, I would give the Reds a D+ at the catcher position because they do have one guy who looks like he has the potential to be an above average catcher (Mesoraco) and Hanigan looks good enough to hold his own at the major league level. Outside of that though, there is a big hole at the position.

First Base
The Reds have several guys who split time at first base who are real prospects with Adam Rosales and Todd Frazier, but the best prospect of the bunch is this years first round draft pick Yonder Alonso. Yonder Alonso signed late and didn’t play much but he is the best prospect at the position and arguably in the entire system. He is limited to first base (regardless of what the Reds want you to believe), but he has outstanding plate discipline and reminds me of an Adrian Gonzalez (Padres 1B) with a tad less power. Adam Rosales is at an age where he needs to start seeing time with the Reds, but he is a bit of a utility type in the sense that he can play several positions and his bat may be able to play at the major league level at first base. Frazier, one of 2007’s first round draft picks is like Rosales in the sense that he can play several positions (drafted as a shortstop, but isn’t a shortstop) but has spent plenty of time logged at first base. He has a very strong all around game at the plate. He can hit for average and power while having solid plate discipline. Its not certain he will stay at first base or not but he is an option.

The Reds also have a little bit of depth at the position with guys like Tonys Gutierrez and Logan Parker in the ranks. Gutierrez doesn’t have much power, but he has outstanding plate discipline, doesn’t strike out much and can hit for a solid average. Logan Parker is coming back from shoulder surgery but he brings a fairly well rounded game with him. He can hit for average, a bit of power and he has decent plate discipline as well. He is behind some guys at the position, but he brings strong depth at the position.

With Joey Votto manning the spot at the major league level it may be a tough position to break into (unless he shifts to LF which has been suggested by some), but the Reds seem to have some top end talent at the position with Alonso and Frazier, as well as good talent with Rosales, Gutierrez and Parker. Overall they seem to be looking real good at the first base position in the future. I would give the Reds a B/B+ at the position.

Second Base
When I think about the Reds at second base, no one really jumps out at me as a guy who will be above average. The best prospect of the bunch is easily Justin Turner who finished his season at AA. Turner has hit at every level at a solid rate. He has hit .310/.377/.445 in his minor league career to this point with good contact skills and a little bit of pop in his bat on top of good defense.. He has been described as a gamer type who just knows how to play the game.

The rest of the group at the position come off as utility type infielders with the exception of a guy like Alex Buchholz who spent his year down in Billings after being drafted this year. He has a long way to go, but he has shown some flashes that he could be a real prospect.The other wild card in the group is Danny Richar who was brought over in the Ken Griffey Jr trade. He has had seasons in the minors that look very promising (last year had an .870 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old), although he looks to me like he is probably a utility bench player.

One other thing to note is that there are guys in the system, much like first base, who have the ability to play second base who have been moved around some. Guys like Adam Rosales and Chris Valaika fall into this mix, although both are viewed at different positions.

OVerall I think I would give the position a C based on the ability that the Reds could likely fill the spot in the near term future if they needed to (with either Rosales next year or Turner toward the end of next year and going forward in 2009), but the lack of star power potential at the position hurts it overall and outside of Turner there wasn’t anyone at the position who looked too good for most of the season.

Shortstop
Shortstop is a real important position on the field because it requires a very specific skillset that not many guys have. Top that off with the fact that the Reds currently have a gaping hole at shortstop at the major league level and its a real important thing to have in the system. The position is led by Chris Valaika who finished up his season in AA Chattanooga for the Lookouts.

Chris Valaika has played SS since he was drafted by the Reds in the 3rd round, but there are a lot of people who question his ability to play SS at the major league level. The Reds don’t seem to be those people though from what they have shown with Valaika. His bat will likely play wherever he moves to though, as he is just a real solid hitter. He can hit for average, for power and he draws enough walks that he isn’t going to hurt you either. The next guy to look for is Zach Cozart, who is the best defensive shortstop in the system. His bat has some questions about it, but he hit very well in the second half of the season for Dayton. If he continues to develop with the bat, he could be a real solution in the future at the position.

Paul Janish is currently in Cincinnati, but I just don’t see his bat playing enough to be a major league starter. His glove will likely make him a bench player in the majors though. Jose Castro had a disappointing year after having a solid 2007 year, but he needs to make some strides in his game before he can really be talked about as anything in regards to a major leaguer. The Reds seemed to have moved on from the Todd Frazier and Neftali Soto are shortstops boat, so I don’t really count them as shortstops.

Overall I would give the Reds shortstop position a C/C+ grade. With Valaika they have a guy who could be passable defensively at the position and his bat should easily play. Cozart brings in another real prospect type of guy at the position even if he has a ways to go. After them though, there are some questions almost everywhere else about guys that don’t look like they could start at SS in the majors.

Third Base
Third base may be the deepest position in the entire system. Neftali Soto and Todd Frazier were both drafted last season but are already leading the way at the third base position. Neftali Soto was taken in the 3rd round, but could be the best prospect in the system. He hit a combined .340/.362/.558 between Billings and Dayton this year as a 19 year old. Frazier, one of last years first round draft picks hit .291/.368/.485 between Dayton and Sarasota.

While those two are the leaders of the class Juan Francisco has more power than anyone in the system and hit 23 home runs in the Florida State League as a 21 year old. He has some plate discipline issues he needs to work with (just 19 walks all season and 123 strikeouts), but he has a lot of power and plenty of tools to work with. Another 2007 draft pick had a decently strong season at third base for Dayton as Brandon Waring hit 20 home runs along with hitting .270/.346/.467 for the Dragons. Like Francisco he also has a strikeout issue he needs to work with, but unlike Francisco, Waring can take a walk.

Overall I would give the Reds 3B position a solid A. They have two top end prospects at the position and also have depth that includes potential high end talent as well. I really don’t think there is another way to grade the position than that. The future looks bright for the guys playing third base in the Reds system.

Centerfield
Centerfield is a spot that has really hurt the Reds this season for the most part. Dusty Baker has run Corey Patterson out there for 96 starts now and the Reds centerfielders have hit a combined .249/.301/.400 (hit .300/.364/.461 without Corey Patterson). Finding a centerfielder and soon is a big need since Dusty wants to play Patterson so much and is probably going to push for him to be back next season.

The centerfield position is led by 2006 first round pick Drew Stubbs. Stubbs had somewhat of a breakout season this year although some of it was hidden by the Florida State League. He brings game changing defense to the table along with a bat that will play in the majors and promising power potential. He finished the season in AAA Louisville, but the guy who spent most of the time roaming CF for the Bats this year is the next guy on the list. Chris Dickerson has always been a toolbox waiting to be opened. This year he really broke out with an OPS over .850 while hitting for the power he always had inside but wasn’t showing consistently. His season is likely done now, so he will keep his prospect status for one more offseason. Dickerson has some strikeout concerns, but he knows how to work the walk, plays very good defense and has some pop in his bat.

The next tier of guys is led by Chris Heisey who was also drafted in 2006 like Stubbs and spent his time in Sarasota and Chattanooga. Heisey does lots of things well. He can steal some bases (stole 32 this year in 34 attempts), play solid defense, has good plate discipline and gap to gap power (although not much HR power). The next guy in this group is Shaun Cumberland. Cumberland was part of the trade that brought the Reds Jorge Cantu. He split time in AA and AAA where he really changed his plate approach around. He has always been a toolsy kind of guy but wasn’t one who had put together a real good year. He increased his walk rate big time this year and started hitting the ball in the air more, which resulted in a much better overall season than he had seen before.

There are also two wildcard guys in the mix with Justin Reed and Yorman Rodriguez. Justin Reed is another toolsy type of player who turned down a football scholarship at Ole Miss to play baseball for the Reds. He has the tools to be successful, but he is going to need to cut down on the strikeouts to have more success. Right now, he is an unopened toolbox, but he is certainly someone to keep an eye on as he continues to progress. Yorman Rodriguez on the same token is also a very toolsy player. He is said to have plus-plus speed and plus-plus raw power, as a 16 year old, to go with defensive tools as well. He has been compared to guys like Miguel Cabrera (for his bat), Eric Davis and a right handed Carlos Beltran. He signed for $2.7 million this August and has yet to play a professional game at any level. He is a ways away, likely at least 4 years if everything goes right, but he is someone to certainly watch for in the future.

Overall, I would give this Reds a B/B+ for the position. They have the high upside guys with Stubbs and Rodriguez (even if he is a long ways away) as well as a guy who could cut it as a starter against most of the league next year with Chris Dickerson. Guys like Heisey and Cumberland also are strong prospects that add depth to the position and give you wiggle room if something doesn’t pan out how you want it. A very solid crew of guys standing deep in the middle of the field through our system.

Corner Outfield
Jay Bruce looks like he will be holding down RF for a long time as a Red (or at least for the next 5 years, but lets hope for more) so there really only looks to be one spot open in the corner outfield for a while.

The guy that really leads the list in my opinion has to be 32nd round pick Danny Dorn. All he has done since being drafted is hit the snot out of the baseball posting OPS numbers of 1.030, .873 and .906 over his three seasons in the minor leagues. He is a lefty who has struggled with left handed pitching, but as you can see by his numbers, he absolutely kills right handed pitching. Even if he may need to platoon in the majors, he will face the right handers which means probably 450 or so PA a year. He has plenty of power to hit for a corner outfielder in the majors. He really stands out from the rest of the group as a guy pushing for a top 10 ranking in the system.

Sean Henry is among the next tier of guys on the list. He is a bit undersized as he checks in at 5′10 and 185 pounds, but all he has done is hit the ball and play good defense since he was drafted. He just hit .285/.361/.455 in AA as a 22 year old. He will need to hit for some more HR power to play fulltime in the majors, but he is still provides solid depth at the spot with the potential to fill in quite well at the major league level if needed. Drew Anderson is a bit of an older guy, but he also provides some depth at the position. The big wild card at the position is the $2 million manboy out of the Dominican Republic Juan Duran. The Reds got this sign due to a loophole in the rules that they saw before anyone else and signed him quietly before others really even talked to him. Duran has been compared to Juan Gonzalez and Vladimir Guerrero by some scouts.

The rest of the guys are bigger question marks at this point but some guys have the potential to break out in the future as they possess the tools to do so. Overall I would give the Reds corner outfield position a C+/B- because they do have someone I feel could step in and produce at a league average rate in LF right now with Danny Dorn, but after him the next impact guy spent his year playing in the Dominican Republic and likely learning how to drive a car and speak English. Sean Henry and Drew Anderson bring a little depth to the position though. I am on the fence on the overall grade though.

Thats my take anyways, just thought I would share it with you guys. Sorry for the long read, but hopefully you didn't fall asleep.

Superdude
09-23-2008, 06:53 PM
Nice work. I stayed awake.

Spazzrico
09-23-2008, 07:11 PM
Pitching?

dougdirt
09-23-2008, 07:17 PM
Pitching?

In a few days.

Mario-Rijo
09-23-2008, 07:17 PM
What about Wilkin Castillo DD? I'd say he is potentially as good as Hanigan.

dougdirt
09-23-2008, 07:41 PM
What about Wilkin Castillo DD? I'd say he is potentially as good as Hanigan.

Catcher is the one position I really like to see a guy play before saying a whole lot about them. I have read decent things about Castillo behind the plate though, although nothing really stands out with his game. Probably a good backup type though.

Betterread
09-23-2008, 09:13 PM
Great read. Your knowledge of the system is deep. I disagree with you on Craig Tatum, though. He is a decent C prospect. Tony Brown was the only notable omission. He showed serious power at 20 yrs old - but also struck out about a 1/3 of the time. Then again, you don't like power bats with a similiar profile (Francisco)so you probably won't like him.

dougdirt
09-23-2008, 09:22 PM
Great read. Your knowledge of the system is deep. I disagree with you on Craig Tatum, though. He is a decent C prospect. Tony Brown was the only notable omission. He showed serious power at 20 yrs old - but also struck out about a 1/3 of the time. Then again, you don't like power bats with a similiar profile (Francisco)so you probably won't like him.

I basically kept nearly everyone in rookie ball out with the exception of Duran, Rodriguez and Buchholz who had just a slight mention, so Brown was left out for that as well. Maybe I worded things with Tatum poorly, but I put him as a guy that had the tools, but hes at an age that he better start showing them in game. The rest of the guys just looked like filler types, him not included but if he doesn't show something this next season he will fall into that category.

Mario-Rijo
09-23-2008, 09:33 PM
Catcher is the one position I really like to see a guy play before saying a whole lot about them. I have read decent things about Castillo behind the plate though, although nothing really stands out with his game. Probably a good backup type though.

Understood, but just felt he deserved mention based strictly on the fact that he has shown some worth (albeit small) above AA Ball. That and the fact that he had a cup of coffee and he's a year younger than Tatum. However the versatility thing makes me wonder just how good he is behind the dish also.

OnBaseMachine
09-23-2008, 09:34 PM
Good stuff Doug.

gedred69
09-23-2008, 09:51 PM
As is usually the case, I agree with Doug to a very large extent. Doug, I really appreciate your evaluation of Dorn. There has been very few on this site who have noticed what he is capable of the last 2 seasons. I feel the only reason he missed a Sept. call was the fact that he missed so much time early from the gash in his leg, that he didn't get the promotion to AAA he deserved. He projects to be a 30-35 HR guy with a BA in the .270-.280 range, while as you responded a couple months ago, a definate up-grade defense-wise over Dunn. Next, I have seen Valaika play, and he just looks like a guy who "gets it". He figures to be a solid MLB player. Mesoraco is a ways off, and too early to tell, but don't forget about him. He has the talent if he keeps up the work and keeps his head screwed on straight. 2 years at least. He wasn't even supposed to play at Dayton this year, they put him there I believe, because he was too good for instructional, and Pioneer league didn't start until late June. Then he played well enough that the decision was made to leave him at Dayton.

Orenda
09-23-2008, 09:51 PM
I think the player who is being overlooked is Chris Heisey. Everything in his stat line suggests he is a solid baseball player; he might not have the power potential that Drew Stubbs supposedly has but he also hasn't shown the contact issues either. And it is not as if he's just a singles hitter, I mean the guy had the 2nd most xbh in the reds minor league system this year. He's solid on the basepaths and in the field, he seems like a guy that more of us should be tracking. My question to you Doug is if you throw out draft position and signing bonuses, what skills does Stubbs possess that Heisey doesn't and how far of a gap is there between the two if you are only comparing their "tools". I also have questions for you in regards to Dorn's splits against left handed pitching. How large of a sample does he have against LHP? And are his numbers against rhp's enough to justify the reds trying to get him as many at bats against LHP's as possible, so that he could potentially become a regular rather than a platoon?

Mario-Rijo
09-23-2008, 10:22 PM
A couple of other things that I wonder about.

#1 is I think it's possible that Janish could be passable at SS. He certainly doesn't have any outstanding offensive talent, it's more or less bench talent. However what he lacks in talent he makes up for with skill. He has a good eye at the plate and seemingly understands that he must get the right pitch to hit, or else he ain't swinging. He also makes pretty decent contact, although I think he could definitely use a tweak to his swing (has a 3 piece swing) that would help both his contact rate and his pop. But even w/o that tweak and his defense and approach he couldn't be a whole lot worse than Adam Everett ever was and he is still a starter I believe. For his price I would be willing to give him an extended look at that spot.

Also reading BA's scouting report on Sean Henry & Shaun Cumberland once upon a time. It sounded to me that Henry can play CF, and that Cumberland although could play a passable CF (speed wise) is more of a COF with an arm between a CF's & RF's, probably a bench guy who can play all 3 OF positions adequately. What is your assessment of them defensively and how does their offense make them ideal for a particular position?

The way I see it and in these particular orders is what would be ideally suited for them, based off of the limited info (BA) I am privy too.

Dorn - LF
Henry - CF/LF/RF
Cumberland - RF/CF/LF
Heisey - CF/LF/RF

dougdirt
09-23-2008, 10:31 PM
I think the player who is being overlooked is Chris Heisey. Everything in his stat line suggests he is a solid baseball player; he might not have the power potential that Drew Stubbs supposedly has but he also hasn't shown the contact issues either. And it is not as if he's just a singles hitter, I mean the guy had the 2nd most xbh in the reds minor league system this year. He's solid on the basepaths and in the field, he seems like a guy that more of us should be tracking. My question to you Doug is if you throw out draft position and signing bonuses, what skills does Stubbs possess that Heisey doesn't and how far of a gap is there between the two if you are only comparing their "tools". I also have questions for you in regards to Dorn's splits against left handed pitching. How large of a sample does he have against LHP? And are his numbers against rhp's enough to justify the reds trying to get him as many at bats against LHP's as possible, so that he could potentially become a regular rather than a platoon?

Stubbs has the power potential that Heisey doesn't. He has more speed, a better arm and a better glove. There isn't much wrong with Heisey as a prospect. He is just another one of those guys that does a lot well, but doesn't do anything outstanding. Basically, he is Justin Turner but in the outfield. Both of those guys are going to be Top 20 prospects for the Reds and certainly are worth watching.

As for Dorn, his chances against lefties are minimal, with just 215 at bats against lefties as a pro, but his stat line is just .223/.332/.353 against them. Interestingly enough, his walk rate, strikeout rate and line drive rate are all quite similar to what he does against righties:


Danny Dorn
BB% K% LD%
vsL 10.2 21.1 15.8
vsR 11.1 18.5 19.8

The main difference is the power.


Danny Dorn
AB/HR AB/XBH
vsL 35.8 13.4
vsR 17.6 7.3


Dorn just doesn't have it against lefties and in turn it leads to a lot of smaller numbers across the board. If he is in the minor leagues, play him versus lefties every day. If he is in the majors though, I wouldn't play him against them too often.

AmarilloRed
09-24-2008, 01:30 AM
Stubbs has the power potential that Heisey doesn't. He has more speed, a better arm and a better glove. There isn't much wrong with Heisey as a prospect. He is just another one of those guys that does a lot well, but doesn't do anything outstanding. Basically, he is Justin Turner but in the outfield. Both of those guys are going to be Top 20 prospects for the Reds and certainly are worth watching.

I have always felt Stubbs was a good lead off hitter with a high OBP, could steal a base, and could play good defense. The thing I question is his power potential. He seems to be able to get his doubles and triples, so he could have some gap power. I tend to think he will be like Sean Casey in that regard. You may be right that he will show that power potential eventually; I just don't see it yet.

dougdirt
09-24-2008, 02:37 AM
I have always felt Stubbs was a good lead off hitter with a high OBP, could steal a base, and could play good defense. The thing I question is his power potential. He seems to be able to get his doubles and triples, so he could have some gap power. I tend to think he will be like Sean Casey in that regard. You may be right that he will show that power potential eventually; I just don't see it yet.

Stubbs power is all in potential for sure. He doesn't have a ton of in game power yet, but I will say I have seen him hit 2 baseballs that went a combined 900 feet. That attests to his power and what it could be one day. He has it in him from time to time, as that time goes along, it may get more and more noticeable in the numbers. He has the swing for it and he does actually have the ability to hit the ball 450 feet (like noted, I have seen him do it on two difference occasions). Whether he turns that into consistent HR power is yet to be seen, but he does have that ability within him.

remdog
09-24-2008, 03:52 AM
Nice overview and effort on your part.

I'm curious as to how many of these players you've actually seen play and where you saw them along the line. Mostly Dayton? Or, did you see them at other levels as well?

Rem

mth123
09-24-2008, 06:19 AM
Nice Doug. Thanks.

I know he's a long way off, but I'd add David Sappelt to your CF list.

Mario-Rijo
09-24-2008, 08:00 AM
I also was lucky enough to see Stubbsy hit a light tower shot at Dayton. He hit it to LF. Well over the Dragons Lair and nearly out of the park, had it not been for the scoreboard being in the way. I also remembering him hitting another down the line in LF but it was more of a laser, can't recall if I ever figured out whether or not that one left the park.

Here's a link to site where you can check out 5/3 field a bit, just for a little bit of an idea for anyone who hasn't been there. Put your cursor over section 107 (behind the visitors dugout) to see a good shot of LF, Drew hit it (the 1st shot) right about at the McDonald's sign roughly.

http://www.daytondragons.com/fifththird/seating/

bucksfan2
09-24-2008, 08:25 AM
#1 is I think it's possible that Janish could be passable at SS. He certainly doesn't have any outstanding offensive talent, it's more or less bench talent. However what he lacks in talent he makes up for with skill. He has a good eye at the plate and seemingly understands that he must get the right pitch to hit, or else he ain't swinging. He also makes pretty decent contact, although I think he could definitely use a tweak to his swing (has a 3 piece swing) that would help both his contact rate and his pop. But even w/o that tweak and his defense and approach he couldn't be a whole lot worse than Adam Everett ever was and he is still a starter I believe. For his price I would be willing to give him an extended look at that spot.


I think Janish could be interesting. For some reason I think his offensive game is ok. I can picture him having an offensive game similar to that of Eckstein. In the few games I have seen of him he stays within himself as a hitter. He takes what the pitcher gives him and he knows what situation he is in. I doubt he ever will hit for power but at the same time if he can play solid defense while having a "pesky" bat I would take him as a 7-8 hole hitter and a good defensive SS.

Doug what do you see happening with the 3b position. IMO the prospects are Fraizer and Soto. It also seems as if Fraizer would be ready by the 09 season which would make the reds make a decision in the near future. Can he play 3b at the MLB level? Will they have to move him to LF? I think you will see him or Edwin dangled as trade bait because I don't foresee Votto going anywhere except for 1b or LF.

As for Soto does he start in Dayton next season? Have you seen him play? Do his lack of walks hurt him or is he just that good of a hitter (Vlad)? Personally I don't mind a free swinger if he has a little bit of patience. I also don't mind a free swinger if he has the ability to punish a ball no matter where it is thrown. If Soto has good plate coverage and hits the ball hard I don't see his low walk total right now as a problem.

nate
09-24-2008, 09:07 AM
Great post, Doug. Thanks!

dougdirt
09-24-2008, 12:04 PM
Nice overview and effort on your part.

I'm curious as to how many of these players you've actually seen play and where you saw them along the line. Mostly Dayton? Or, did you see them at other levels as well?

Rem

I see about 20-25 games a year from Dayton (in person and a handful on tv, which I record on DVR so I can go back and break stuff down) and about 100 or so games a year from Louisville (mostly online with their video package that I can go back and watch whenever I want). I talk to several people in Billings and Chattanooga throughout the year as well as getting some video clips of those two places every now and again. I also have some contact with a few players in the system who give me their thoughts on guys as well as talking with people in the industry (scouts/coaches). I really only have 1 contact that gets to see Sarasota play often, so that is generally the hardest full season level for me to give fully confident reports on, however there were two players I have contact with who played there this year so that helped out some.

dougdirt
09-24-2008, 12:07 PM
I also was lucky enough to see Stubbsy hit a light tower shot at Dayton. He hit it to LF. Well over the Dragons Lair and nearly out of the park, had it not been for the scoreboard being in the way. I also remembering him hitting another down the line in LF but it was more of a laser, can't recall if I ever figured out whether or not that one left the park.

Here's a link to site where you can check out 5/3 field a bit, just for a little bit of an idea for anyone who hasn't been there. Put your cursor over section 107 (behind the visitors dugout) to see a good shot of LF, Drew hit it (the 1st shot) right about at the McDonald's sign roughly.

http://www.daytondragons.com/fifththird/seating/
I also saw that HR, that thing was a moonshot (the one off the scoreboard). It was one of the HR's I was referring to above when attesting to his power. The other one he hit was here:
http://www.whitehousepmc.com/images/slugger.jpg
It went over that short white fence beyond CF between the scoreboard and that little billboard thing, nearly to dead CF.

dougdirt
09-24-2008, 12:16 PM
Doug what do you see happening with the 3b position. IMO the prospects are Fraizer and Soto. It also seems as if Fraizer would be ready by the 09 season which would make the reds make a decision in the near future. Can he play 3b at the MLB level? Will they have to move him to LF? I think you will see him or Edwin dangled as trade bait because I don't foresee Votto going anywhere except for 1b or LF.
I am with you on Frazier and Soto being 'the guys' over there. I have heard a concern or two about Fraziers arm over at third. Not that its not strong enough, but it takes a while for him to get it going on throws, which plays it down a little. Other than that I think he could play there at the major league level. With Soto, his range isn't the best, but its not bad either and his arm is fine over there. so unless he grows a bit (which is possible) he should also be able to play there. I think we eventually see a trade of someone(s) though, because even with a guy or two not making it, there still doesn't look like there is room for Votto/EE/Frazier/Soto/Alonso.



As for Soto does he start in Dayton next season? Have you seen him play? Do his lack of walks hurt him or is he just that good of a hitter (Vlad)? Personally I don't mind a free swinger if he has a little bit of patience. I also don't mind a free swinger if he has the ability to punish a ball no matter where it is thrown. If Soto has good plate coverage and hits the ball hard I don't see his low walk total right now as a problem.

I doubt Soto starts in Dayton, he was the best player on the field almost every time he stepped onto it last year. He hit .326 there and it wasn't a lucky .326 either. He squares the ball up and hits it hard a whole lot. The ball jumps off his bat (not quite as much as Bruce or Francisco, but a whole lot still). From what I have seen and redsof72 also noted, I don't think the walks are a problem. He seems to know balls from strikes for the most part and if guys start to pitch around him, he isn't likely to turn into a hacker.

Here is a video of a HR he hit in Dayton earlier this year (http://redsminorleagues.com/video/sotohr.mpg)

Mario-Rijo
09-24-2008, 09:30 PM
I also saw that HR, that thing was a moonshot (the one off the scoreboard). It was one of the HR's I was referring to above when attesting to his power. The other one he hit was here:
http://www.whitehousepmc.com/images/slugger.jpg
It went over that short white fence beyond CF between the scoreboard and that little billboard thing, nearly to dead CF.

Yeah it was awe inspiring for sure. Looking at your above the field shot here and knowing the rough trajectory and speed with which the laser shot I seen him hit, it had to have gone out of the park. Right over the little white billboard at the far left, right down the LF line.

The kid has the power no question. However I think he's a bit more inconsistent with hitting around the sweet spot more than the average guy for whatever reason.

Mario-Rijo
09-24-2008, 09:35 PM
I am with you on Frazier and Soto being 'the guys' over there. I have heard a concern or two about Fraziers arm over at third. Not that its not strong enough, but it takes a while for him to get it going on throws, which plays it down a little. Other than that I think he could play there at the major league level. With Soto, his range isn't the best, but its not bad either and his arm is fine over there. so unless he grows a bit (which is possible) he should also be able to play there. I think we eventually see a trade of someone(s) though, because even with a guy or two not making it, there still doesn't look like there is room for Votto/EE/Frazier/Soto/Alonso.



I doubt Soto starts in Dayton, he was the best player on the field almost every time he stepped onto it last year. He hit .326 there and it wasn't a lucky .326 either. He squares the ball up and hits it hard a whole lot. The ball jumps off his bat (not quite as much as Bruce or Francisco, but a whole lot still). From what I have seen and redsof72 also noted, I don't think the walks are a problem. He seems to know balls from strikes for the most part and if guys start to pitch around him, he isn't likely to turn into a hacker.

Here is a video of a HR he hit in Dayton earlier this year (http://redsminorleagues.com/video/sotohr.mpg)

Good video clip Doug, I remember that one. Man that kid hit's the ball hard, he's got some nice torque in his swing.

lollipopcurve
09-24-2008, 09:40 PM
nice video, doug -- thanks for that

looks to me that Soto has a very nice setup ("quiet" as BA put it) and the bat head is short to the ball -- HR swings tend to look good anyway, but that swing seems technically very solid to me

Highlifeman21
09-24-2008, 11:10 PM
1. Great stuff, doug

2. Which guys will actually contribute to the ML roster?

3. Which guys can we realistically trade to obtain guys that will contribute to the ML roster?

RedsManRick
09-25-2008, 12:01 AM
With Stubbs, I think the low batting average and just "potential" power are one in the same. If and when he really squares one up, it goes a long ways. The problem is that he's not particularly adept at squaring it up. He's one of those guys for whom some adjust in his stroke can have significant affects because it won't just up his contact rate but could unlock his power potential at the same time.

lollipopcurve
09-25-2008, 09:36 AM
With Stubbs, I think the low batting average and just "potential" power are one in the same. If and when he really squares one up, it goes a long ways. The problem is that he's not particularly adept at squaring it up.

They're not exactly the same. The "choking up" adjustment may have helped him address his contact problems. If he continues with that approach, he will sacrifice some "potential power." He may still have enough "in game power," especially at GAB, but he won't have the same light tower power he has occasionally shown.

Still, being able to barrel up a ball consistently is not really a skill players can make significant gains in, in my opinion. I'm pretty resigned to Stubbs being an average offensive player, all things considered -- which is acceptable for a plus defensive CF.

Highlifeman21
09-25-2008, 11:52 AM
With Stubbs, I think the low batting average and just "potential" power are one in the same. If and when he really squares one up, it goes a long ways. The problem is that he's not particularly adept at squaring it up. He's one of those guys for whom some adjust in his stroke can have significant affects because it won't just up his contact rate but could unlock his power potential at the same time.

So does Stubbs right now fall into the "Wily Mo, Jr." category, only with better defensive tools?

dougdirt
09-25-2008, 12:03 PM
Still, being able to barrel up a ball consistently is not really a skill players can make significant gains in, in my opinion. I'm pretty resigned to Stubbs being an average offensive player, all things considered -- which is acceptable for a plus defensive CF.

Stubbs centers the ball very well. He just doesn't get under it a lot of the time. He hits lots of line drives all around the field right now.

dougdirt
09-25-2008, 12:04 PM
So does Stubbs right now fall into the "Wily Mo, Jr." category, only with better defensive tools?

No. Wily Mo can't hit anything but a fastball and an occasional hanging breaking ball and doesn't exactly walk much either.

RedsManRick
09-25-2008, 01:36 PM
Stubbs centers the ball very well. He just doesn't get under it a lot of the time. He hits lots of line drives all around the field right now.

Fair enough, Doug. It could very well be that he just doesn't have loft in his swing. Do you happen to have GB/LD/FB and HR/FB splits?

dougdirt
09-25-2008, 02:51 PM
Fair enough, Doug. It could very well be that he just doesn't have loft in his swing. Do you happen to have GB/LD/FB and HR/FB splits?

GB - 42.5%
LD - 24.1%
FB - 33.4%

As for HR/FB, no... but I am sure if someone wanted to do the math, they could.

remdog
09-25-2008, 08:10 PM
I see about 20-25 games a year from Dayton (in person and a handful on tv, which I record on DVR so I can go back and break stuff down) and about 100 or so games a year from Louisville (mostly online with their video package that I can go back and watch whenever I want). I talk to several people in Billings and Chattanooga throughout the year as well as getting some video clips of those two places every now and again. I also have some contact with a few players in the system who give me their thoughts on guys as well as talking with people in the industry (scouts/coaches). I really only have 1 contact that gets to see Sarasota play often, so that is generally the hardest full season level for me to give fully confident reports on, however there were two players I have contact with who played there this year so that helped out some.

Thanks for the info. It's pretty amazing how much one can follow minor leaguers these days without even making the connections that you have. With the technology available the difference between now and even 10 years ago is light years.

Rem

Mario-Rijo
09-26-2008, 07:37 AM
GB - 42.5%
LD - 24.1%
FB - 33.4%

As for HR/FB, no... but I am sure if someone wanted to do the math, they could.

I come out with roughly 1/17 HR/FB for this season, work below.


548 PA's - 195 PA (K's, BB's, HBP) = 353/33.4% = 118 (roughly) /7 (HR's) = 17 (roughly)

Did I miss anything?

To be exact it would be.....1/16.84 (117.902/7)

dougdirt
09-26-2008, 12:10 PM
I come out with roughly 1/17 HR/FB for this season, work below.



Did I miss anything?

To be exact it would be.....1/16.84 (117.902/7)

The only thing I would have also used would be sac hits (not flies) and bunts because he wasn't going to hit a fly ball on a bunt/sac bunt and wasn't trying to. Shouldn't change the numbers much though.

camisadelgolf
09-27-2008, 05:32 AM
I don't have time to add all the commentary that I'd like, but I'd like to throw a couple things out there:

1. The Reds have some decent catching prospects in the low minors. I'm thinking of Kyle Day (if he can stick to the position) and Jordan Wideman (if his bat continues to progress) in particular. Wideman is particularly young, so he's got plenty of time to figure things out.

2. Justin Reed is a good wild card for center field, but one guy who is often forgotten is Alex Oliveras, who in my humble opinion, is almost equally as good of a prospect. But the guy I like more than both of them is the 5'9" Dave Sappelt.