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View Full Version : BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)



New Fever
09-26-2008, 01:12 PM
1- Jay Bruce
2 - Andrew McCutchen
3 - Wade Davis
4 - Reid Brignac
5 - Jed Lowrie
6 - David Huff
7 - Neil Walker
8 - Denard Span
9 - Charlie Morton
10 - Homer Bailey
11 - David Purcey
12 - Kevin Mulvey
13 - Matt Joyce
14 - Brandon Moss
15 - J.A. Happ
16 - Jeff Niemann
17 - Brandon Jones
18 - Collin Balester
19 - Brett Gardner
20 - Chris Getz

RedsManRick
09-26-2008, 01:33 PM
Serious question: If a scout saw Homer Bailey today, what assessment would he make of him. I just don't get the status anymore.

I'm surprised to see Neil Walker that high too. He's certainly young, but a .242/.280/.414 with poor defense is hardly inspiring.

Screwball
09-26-2008, 01:35 PM
I'd have Daryl Thompson in the top 10 before Homer Bailey.

dougdirt
09-26-2008, 01:52 PM
If a scout saw Bailey pitch his final game of the year, I would be willing to wager that he would rank him #2 behind Jay Bruce. If a scout saw him pitch other times this year, then #10 might be right. You have to remember, there were long periods of time Bailey wasn't allowed to throw a 4 seam fastball, so he was working in the low 90's. Scouts that saw that Bailey were obviously going to downgrade him. His last start of the year he was throwing consistent 94-96 MPH.

He is a bit of an enigma, but I still think upside in his arm would put him as high as #2 in that list behind only Jay Bruce.

OnBaseMachine
09-26-2008, 02:15 PM
I forgot that Bruce eligible for the IL top 20. Bruce #1 is a no brainer.

HokieRed
09-26-2008, 03:08 PM
I remain totally in the Bailey camp. His upside is still very great. It would be a serious mistake to trade him. I like Ramirez and think he's earned the role of top contender for next year's #5 guy, I also like Thompson and Owings, but Reds fans should want Homer to win that spot, because if he can do it, it means we've really got a rotation. The kid's combination of stuff is still that of a number 1 starter: 96 mph fastball, mid to high 80's slider, curveball with lots of downward action, developing change. He's still an extremely young pitcher who's never really needed to learn to pitch until the last two years. One thing I think WJ will find: if he starts shopping Homer around, there will be a lot of interest.

princeton
09-26-2008, 03:37 PM
One thing I think WJ will find: if he starts shopping Homer around, there will be a lot of interest.

great interest without great offers, I figure.

kpresidente
09-26-2008, 07:40 PM
If a scout saw Bailey pitch his final game of the year, I would be willing to wager that he would rank him #2 behind Jay Bruce. If a scout saw him pitch other times this year, then #10 might be right. You have to remember, there were long periods of time Bailey wasn't allowed to throw a 4 seam fastball, so he was working in the low 90's. Scouts that saw that Bailey were obviously going to downgrade him. His last start of the year he was throwing consistent 94-96 MPH.

Any idea on why they would do that?

SMcGavin
09-26-2008, 08:24 PM
great interest without great offers, I figure.

Exactly. I'm sure lots of other GMs will be looking to do us the "favor" of taking our failed former top prospect off our hands.

HokieRed
09-26-2008, 11:32 PM
We better resist their desire to do us this particular favor. We'll regret it later on. Best thing to do with Homer is to keep him and let him develop.

Screwball
09-27-2008, 01:06 AM
Any idea on why they would do that?

I would imagine to get more work and practice on his secondary pitches.

However, this is the first I've heard of it. I'm sure you're right, Doug, but do you have a link or a quote I could go over?

mth123
09-27-2008, 06:29 AM
I remain totally in the Bailey camp. His upside is still very great. It would be a serious mistake to trade him. I like Ramirez and think he's earned the role of top contender for next year's #5 guy, I also like Thompson and Owings, but Reds fans should want Homer to win that spot, because if he can do it, it means we've really got a rotation. The kid's combination of stuff is still that of a number 1 starter: 96 mph fastball, mid to high 80's slider, curveball with lots of downward action, developing change. He's still an extremely young pitcher who's never really needed to learn to pitch until the last two years. One thing I think WJ will find: if he starts shopping Homer around, there will be a lot of interest.

Exactly. I'd deal Homer, but only for a long term fix to one of the team's/organization's pressing problems. Would I include him in a deal for say a JJ Hardy? Yes. Would I deal him for a rental or a stopgap? No and the suggestion is short sighted IMO. Glad he wasn't dealt for Eric Bedard.

Homer just turned 22 in May and is younger than these Reds minor league pitchers (I left the journeyman like Joe Valentine and Justin Lehr off the list) who seem to have their fans as future guys who may develop:

Carlos Fisher, Ben Jukich, Ty Pelland, Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Sam Lecure, Ramon Geronimo, Robert Manuel, Lee Tabor, Pedro Viola, Sean Watson, Dallas Buck, Scott Carroll, Misael Dejesus, Rafael Gonzalez, Matthew Klinker, Joseph Krebs, Logan Ondrusek, Steve Otterness, Tyler Rhoden, Alex Smit, Terrell Young, Henry Arias, Derrick Conatser, Enerio Del Rosario, Daniel Guerrero, Jeremy Horst, Jeff Jeffords, Luis Montano, Juan Rafael, Jamie Arneson, Leonardo Astorga, Mike Bohana, Andrew Bowman, Jordan Hotchkiss, Randall Linebaugh, Junior Martinez, David Torcise, Dan Zeffiro, and Greg Dombrowski.

Its way too soon to give up on Bailey or even remotely begin to believe that what we've seen is a finished product. He wasn't ready physically, emotionally or developmentally when he was rushed to the big leagues. He pitched 147.666 innings combined in AAA and MLB in 2008. Its the most he's ever thrown in a season. I wanted to see Homer too back in 2007 and had dreams of him becoming an instant phenom, but with hindsight's assistance I can now ask, how can anyone consider a kid with no track record of even throwing 150 innings in a season ready for a big league rotation? The fact he that he crashed and burned is not a reason to believe all is lost with this kid. It was really the most likely outcome all along. He needs 175 innings or so in 2009 and if some of those are in the big leagues, it will probably entail taking some lumps. We have an on-hand example of what a pitcher can go through as he grows into his ace potential in Edinson Volquez. Giving up on Homer is a mistake to be avoided.

princeton
09-27-2008, 06:34 AM
many see as future guys who may develop:

Carlos Fisher, Ben Jukich, Ty Pelland, Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Sam Lecure, Ramon Geronimo, Robert Manuel, Lee Tabor, Pedro Viola, Sean Watson, Dallas Buck, Scott Carroll, Misael Dejesus, Rafael Gonzalez, Matthew Klinker, Joseph Krebs, Logan Ondrusek, Steve Otterness, Tyler Rhoden, Alex Smit, Terrell Young, Henry Arias, Derrick Conatser, Enerio Del Rosario, Daniel Guerrero, Jeremy Horst, Jeff Jeffords, Luis Montano, Juan Rafael, Jamie Arneson, Leonardo Astorga, Mike Bohana, Andrew Bowman, Jordan Hotchkiss, Randall Linebaugh, Junior Martinez, David Torcise, Dan Zeffiro, and Greg Dombrowski.




many?

mth123
09-27-2008, 06:47 AM
many?

I believe you started a thread about "three hard-throwing Dayton lefthanders." The implication was that they may be something of value. Two of those were Drew Bowman and Jamie Arneson both older and quite a bit behind Homer. I also remember something about Horst not a Muhlmann, but can't find that one. It seems many on here take notice of these kids with some hope being implied while considering a younger, more developed and higher ceiling Homer a bust already.

It wasn't meant to imply that many experts consider all these kids top prospects which it may now that I re-read it. Just that many on here are already giving up on Homer while trumpeting the virtues of these "kids" who are actually older and much farther away in most cases. I trumpet them too, but I still think Homer is the best bet of all the Reds minor league pitchers to be a good major leaguer and its really not close.

I'll edit the wording a bit. Thanks.

princeton
09-27-2008, 09:24 AM
I believe you started a thread about "three hard-throwing Dayton lefthanders." The implication was that they may be something of value.

point of that thread was that successful teams get something of value out of the occasional lefty. The Reds don't -- most don't get out of Dayton -- and I expect that to continue even though they've thrown a bit more money at it. There just doesn't look like much is out there.

last successful homegrown lefty was.... Tom Browning and Rob Murphy? Franco, Charlton, Myers, Jackson, Schourek all came from elsewhere. BJ Ryan wasn't here long enough to get ruined, apparently (lucky for BJ). Chris Hammond's probably the only semi-success in 20 years.

me, I believe more in pitching depth than individual pitching prospects. If you have enough prospects, a few will step up even though you're not actually sure who. Reds don't have that at all with lefties-- though, to be fair, it does look a bit better than it has in the past 10 years. but Reds have righties-- maybe Homer never steps up, but Thompson or Cueto or Ramirez might. Homer's just a piece of the depth, not a key.

I don't mind trading out of that depth, but since Homer has very little value in trade, you don't trade him. baseball's a very simple game.

mth123
09-27-2008, 11:03 AM
I don't mind trading out of that depth, but since Homer has very little value in trade, you don't trade him. baseball's a very simple game.

Agree unless the Reds can get "top pitching prospect" trade value out of Homer, I keep him too. I'm sure teams are trying to steal him, but I'd hold unless they pay up. I'd happily trade any combination of the others to adress other needs including the major league rotation. But I'm not big on trading any of them for a rental.

M2
09-29-2008, 11:49 AM
great interest without great offers, I figure.

Some teams will surely figure he'll be there for the taking after he burns his final option in 2009. Then again, other teams might be more interested in him while he's still got a remaining option.

RedlegJake
09-29-2008, 11:58 AM
me, I believe more in pitching depth than individual pitching prospects. If you have enough prospects, a few will step up even though you're not actually sure who. Reds don't have that at all with lefties-- though, to be fair, it does look a bit better than it has in the past 10 years. but Reds have righties-- maybe Homer never steps up, but Thompson or Cueto or Ramirez might. Homer's just a piece of the depth, not a key.

I don't mind trading out of that depth, but since Homer has very little value in trade, you don't trade him. baseball's a very simple game.

Boy is this right. Many people get hung up on the "super" status of 1 or 2 prospects and ignore the rest but there are no "can't miss" prospects. Until a guy actually comes up to the bigs and does it they can all miss - so the best bet is to have a LOT of prospects so the numbers can fall on your side. Just 5 or 6 years ago people were touting Dawkins and and a couple others (like the shortstop bonus baby I can't recall his name off my head) but there was no depth at all - and when those top couple prospects busted there were no "surprise" guys to take their place from the ranks of lower draft picks. Last couple of years the Reds have done a good job of drafting reasonably solid players who have progressed and given them some depth so they can begin to play on the winning side of that numbers game. Most of the prospects we all talk about won't make it. But a few will and they may be guys that surprise us.

PopFlyHomer
10-01-2008, 08:16 PM
I'd have Daryl Thompson in the top 10 before Homer Bailey.

I don't get why Thompson didn't crack the Top 20 either---because I also think he's just head and shoulders above Bailey. One of the few lasting memories that I'll have of this 2008 season is that MLB debut Thompson had at Yankee Stadium. Ok, sure he got into trouble that day, but he tossed 5 scoreless against a tough tough Yankee lineup. I know it was a small sample size, and they probably promoted him a little prematurely, but man I LOVE how this guy pitches. I just hope Jocketty sees how good this guy could be, and doesn't trade him this offseason.

dougdirt
10-01-2008, 08:31 PM
I don't get why Thompson didn't crack the Top 20 either---because I also think he's just head and shoulders above Bailey. One of the few lasting memories that I'll have of this 2008 season is that MLB debut Thompson had at Yankee Stadium. Ok, sure he got into trouble that day, but he tossed 5 scoreless against a tough tough Yankee lineup. I know it was a small sample size, and they probably promoted him a little prematurely, but man I LOVE how this guy pitches. I just hope Jocketty sees how good this guy could be, and doesn't trade him this offseason.

Homer Bailey >>>>> Daryl Thompson and its not that close really.

Bailey has better size, better stuff and a track record of health that Thompson just can't come close to matching. Thompson is a fine prospect, but Bailey is on a different, higher level.

gedred69
10-01-2008, 08:40 PM
Homer Bailey >>>>> Daryl Thompson and its not that close really.

Bailey has better size, better stuff and a track record of health that Thompson just can't come close to matching. Thompson is a fine prospect, but Bailey is on a different, higher level.

Ahhhh! Thank you for a view of reality! Bailey has what it takes to be a major impact. In the next 2 seasons, it's all up to him and his head to get there. He's still very young, and BTW, look at what Volquez went through '06-'07 with Tx., before he broke out this year.....

GOYA
10-01-2008, 10:20 PM
If a scout saw Bailey...
He is a bit of an enigma, but I still think upside in his arm would put him as high as #2 in that list behind only Jay Bruce.

I hear a lot of people that want to include Homer in a trade package for a RH bat. But I was at that game and having seen what happens when Homer is on, I would argue that at least one more year must pass before even thinking about losing him. The Bulls had no big problems with our other starters but Homer shut them down. The big IF is, can he get consistent?

dougdirt
10-01-2008, 10:38 PM
I hear a lot of people that want to include Homer in a trade package for a RH bat. But I was at that game and having seen what happens when Homer is on, I would argue that at least one more year must pass before even thinking about losing him. The Bulls had no big problems with our other starters but Homer shut them down. The big IF is, can he get consistent?

Thats always the problem, but still, his upside is far and away the best we have in the minors and I would argue he has more upside than anyone the Reds control (including the major league starters). Whether he reaches it is another thing, but at 22 years old I am not willing to let it go just yet.

GOYA
10-01-2008, 10:54 PM
How would you rate Ted Power as the guy Homer needs to straighten him out?

SMcGavin
10-01-2008, 11:01 PM
Homer Bailey >>>>> Daryl Thompson and its not that close really.

Bailey has better size, better stuff and a track record of health that Thompson just can't come close to matching. Thompson is a fine prospect, but Bailey is on a different, higher level.

They're the same age, they played on the same team this year, and Thompson outperformed him.

I'm not sure who's the better prospect, but Homer has been a whole lot of average since he left Chattanooga. If you look at what he's done on the field for the past year and a half, there's nothing to suggest he'd be a top five Reds prospect. So I think by this point Homer has lost his "that guy can't even be compared to me" card. Bailey has the same arm that blew people away at A and AA, and that does count for something. But those days are long enough ago that it's reasonable to ask which of the 22 year olds from Louisville is the better prospect.

dougdirt
10-01-2008, 11:10 PM
They're the same age, they played on the same team this year, and Thompson outperformed him.

I'm not sure who's the better prospect, but Homer has been a whole lot of average since he left Chattanooga. If you look at what he's done on the field for the past year and a half, there's nothing to suggest he'd be a top five Reds prospect. So I think by this point Homer has lost his "that guy can't even be compared to me" card. Bailey has the same arm that blew people away at A and AA, and that does count for something. But those days are long enough ago that it's reasonable to ask which of the 22 year olds from Louisville is the better prospect.

Performance, specifically in the minors, doesn't tell us much about who is likely to perform better in the future.

And I am going to have to disagree that what he has done on the field doesn't suggest he is a top 5 Reds prospect (even if he qualified, which he doesn't). Bailey has had games in which Thompson on his best day couldn't touch what Bailey was doing. The kid is inconsistent, especially lately with the Reds taking his 4 seamer away, taking his curve away, adding a slider, giving back his curve, changing his mechanics and then giving his 4 seamer back.... and that has all happened in the last year. Its tough to deal with all of that and not have some consistency problems. Bailey's last start of the year when he got back off the DL with the knee issue, no one in the system could touch what he was throwing that day.

Sept 4th, 6ip, 2h, 1bb, 8K and 77 pitches (57 strikes). He was sitting 94-96 MPH with his 4 seamer and his offspeed stuff was just nasty.

M2
10-02-2008, 09:13 AM
Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez weren't better prospects than Homer Bailey ... until they were.

TRF
10-02-2008, 10:32 AM
Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez weren't better prospects than Homer Bailey ... until they were.

Cueto was. He out performed Bailey at just about every level.

Volquez was considered the Ranger's version of Bailey, with the exception he actually threw as hard as advertised. Living in Texas, I heard a lot about EV.

But Bailey is still young enough. He's not a bust yet, and there is time. No reason at all to sell low on him. But he was SERIOUSLY overhyped.

dougdirt
10-02-2008, 02:16 PM
Cueto was. He out performed Bailey at just about every level.

Volquez was considered the Ranger's version of Bailey, with the exception he actually threw as hard as advertised. Living in Texas, I heard a lot about EV.

But Bailey is still young enough. He's not a bust yet, and there is time. No reason at all to sell low on him. But he was SERIOUSLY overhyped.

Thats like saying EV was seriously overhyped.... you know, until he wasn't. Some times things need time to play out. Prospect lists are generally made for a look about 7-10 years into the future.

TRF
10-02-2008, 04:25 PM
no, EV was The Rangers Bailey, not that he was over hyped, but that he was hyped. he was their top or one of their top pitching prospect as recently as 2 years ago. Volquez was the man in their ML system the same way Bailey is/was.

The difference so far is Volquez is living up to the hype. I think Bailey will to, but he hasn't thus far. He is a lot younger though, and certainly if he can come on like EV has by age 24, then that's worth waiting for. Heck, the idea that he might is worth waiting for.

dougdirt
10-02-2008, 05:09 PM
no, EV was The Rangers Bailey, not that he was over hyped, but that he was hyped. he was their top or one of their top pitching prospect as recently as 2 years ago. Volquez was the man in their ML system the same way Bailey is/was.

The difference so far is Volquez is living up to the hype. I think Bailey will to, but he hasn't thus far. He is a lot younger though, and certainly if he can come on like EV has by age 24, then that's worth waiting for. Heck, the idea that he might is worth waiting for.

And two and three years ago EV was 'overhyped' due to his failures in the majors according to a lot of Rangers fans. Thats my point, when someone is relatively healthy and still has the same ceiling they once did at a young age the word overhyped doesn't fit well for me. Todd Van Popple was overhyped. Corey Patterson was overhyped. Bruce Chen was overhyped. We know that because those guys are well past the age where 'it can happen' is all but gone. Bailey doesn't fit that idea for me.

SMcGavin
10-02-2008, 05:58 PM
Both Bailey and Volquez got beat around in the majors at a young age. But that's not what bothers me about Bailey. While Volquez was getting rocked in the majors, he never stopped overpowering minor league hitters. He was always a wild dude with great stuff, who needed to find his control to realize his potential.

It's a different story with Bailey. He doesn't overpower anybody these days. To see what I'm talking about:

Bailey, age 22, majors: 36.3 IP, 18 K, 17 BB
Volquez, age 22, majors: 33.3 IP, 15 K, 17 BB

Quite similar. But look at what they did in the minors that season:

Bailey, age 22, AAA: 111.3 IP, 7.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9
Volquez, age 22, AAA: 121 IP, 9.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9

Two extremely different pitchers. Volquez needed to find his control - Bailey needs to find his stuff.

The fact that Bailey has gotten beat around in the majors doesn't concern me that much. It happens to young guys. The fact that he hasn't been able to handle AAA hitters does concern me. Obviously he's still young and I wouldn't go trading him for 50 cents on the dollar. But comps to Volquez (or other young "overpowering but wild" guys) are completely avoiding the main issue with Bailey.

dougdirt
10-02-2008, 06:15 PM
Both Bailey and Volquez got beat around in the majors at a young age. But that's not what bothers me about Bailey. While Volquez was getting rocked in the majors, he never stopped overpowering minor league hitters. He was always a wild dude with great stuff, who needed to find his control to realize his potential.

It's a different story with Bailey. He doesn't overpower anybody these days. To see what I'm talking about:

Bailey, age 22, majors: 36.3 IP, 18 K, 17 BB
Volquez, age 22, majors: 33.3 IP, 15 K, 17 BB

Quite similar. But look at what they did in the minors that season:

Bailey, age 22, AAA: 111.3 IP, 7.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9
Volquez, age 22, AAA: 121 IP, 9.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9

Two extremely different pitchers. Volquez needed to find his control - Bailey needs to find his stuff.

The fact that Bailey has gotten beat around in the majors doesn't concern me that much. It happens to young guys. The fact that he hasn't been able to handle AAA hitters does concern me. Obviously he's still young and I wouldn't go trading him for 50 cents on the dollar. But comps to Volquez (or other young "overpowering but wild" guys) are completely avoiding the main issue with Bailey.

Bailey's AAA season doesn't bother me so much. The Reds did all of these things to Bailey this year: Took away his 4 seam fastball, changed his mechanics, added a slider, took away his curveball, gave back his curveball and gave back his 4 seam fastball. Its going to be tough for any pitcher to put up good numbers with that going on. Whether it makes him a better pitcher in the future is what matters though.

As for Bailey's stuff, its fine. His final start of 2008 in the playoffs
4 seam fastball - 94-96 MPH
2 seam fastball 88-92 MPH
Curveball was working
Slider was 84-88 MPH
Change up was working

Oh and he struck out 8 and walked 1 batter while throwing just 77 pitches in 6 innings. He is going to be fine if he can stay healthy.

SMcGavin
10-02-2008, 06:54 PM
Right, he had a really good last start, so it doesn't matter that he was the fourth best starting pitcher on Louisville this year. Got it.

Honest question - do you think Bailey is the only minor league pitcher who is getting his approach tweaked?

crazyredfan40
10-02-2008, 08:07 PM
Right, he had a really good last start, so it doesn't matter that he was the fourth best starting pitcher on Louisville this year. Got it.

Honest question - do you think Bailey is the only minor league pitcher who is getting his approach tweaked?

I will answer with a question for you...How many of those guys were without their two out pitches for an extended period of time?

dougdirt
10-02-2008, 09:08 PM
Right, he had a really good last start, so it doesn't matter that he was the fourth best starting pitcher on Louisville this year. Got it.

Honest question - do you think Bailey is the only minor league pitcher who is getting his approach tweaked?

Having your approach tweaked and having 2 pitches taken away and a new one given to you while working with new mechanics is more than 'tweaking'. And no, Bailey wasn't the only guy dealing with things like that, but he was the only Red that I know of who did.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2008, 02:54 PM
Baseball America held a chat today with Kyle from Middletown. Seriously, I think the dude broke the record for most questions ever answered in a chat.

Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
Who was the better prospect for their two years at the top of the list, Delmon Young or Jay Bruce? Who do you think will have a better career?

A: Matt Eddy: At this point in time, I'd take Bruce. In his four months in the big leagues -- in fewer than one-third the at-bats -- Bruce has nearly equaled Young's career total for home runs. It's 21 to 26 in favor of Young. Both players earned full-time jobs at age 21, and when you consider that their non-hit tools are similar, I'd take the guy who's performing.



Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
Do you think the Reds have pushed Bruce into right field too soon or has he lost the ability to be an above average center fielder?

A: Matt Eddy: It's a surprising development, made more stark by the fact that Bruce was shifted to right in favor of Corey Patterson, who didn't hit a lick this year. With Drew Stubbs in the organization, though, the move was probably inevitable.



Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
Do you hold out any hope for Homer Bailey? Could he still put things together and surprise people next year??

A: Matt Eddy: Yes, but if I had to bet, I'd peg 2010 as a more likely breakout season for Bailey, at least in terms of success from start to finish. One source I talked with even said he wasn't expecting anything from Bailey at the big league level until he was at least 24. That's how far his command has to come. In the low minors, Bailey succeeded on raw stuff, despite missing the catcher's target by a foot or more.

Matt Eddy: Things look bad for Bailey now, but keep the faith in pitcher's with pure arm strength. Remember that Mike Pelfrey, for example, entered the year with a career 5.55 big league ERA. This year, he pitched 200 innings, won 13 games and posted a sub-4.00 ERA. Now, Bailey and Pelfrey are different types of pitchers, but getting hammered in the big leagues reinforces how important fastball command is for a pitcher.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2008, 02:55 PM
Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
What do you think is responsible for the 88-91 mph Bailey has thrown this year, diminishing stuff or bad coaching? Reds fans are worried that he traded in too much velocity for a quicker delivery.

A: Matt Eddy: Bailey hasn't experienced an arm injury, so chalk up the diminished velocity to the quickened mechanics, sure, but don't forget that he pitched through a strained groin in '07 and a knee injury this season.

Matt Eddy: And don't forget that Bailey went out on a very strong note, striking out 8 Durham batters in 6 innings in the playoffs. He walked one and gave up two hits, saving his best effort for last.


Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
Where would Daryl Thompson have ranked if he were eligible and maintained his performance AAA? Does he project as a #3 starter or set up man?

A: Matt Eddy: Tough call. With his spotty injury history and lack of a reliable secondary offering, Thompson is tough to get a handle on. I'd go with late-inning power reliever if I had to pick a future role.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2008, 02:55 PM
Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
Did Ryan Hanigan get any consideration despite his age? He was rated as the best defender in the league and hit .324. Do you believe that he can be at least an average big league catcher?

A: Matt Eddy: Even in a down year for IL talent, we couldn't find a way to squeeze Hanigan on the list. He's an awesome story, though. A nondrafted free agent from Rollins (Fla.) back in '02, Hanigan has proven himself to be an expert handler of a pitching staff, a great blocker and a very strong thrower, nabbing 37 percent of IL basestealers. On top of that, he's hit for average and drawn walks in the minors, meaning he should have a career as a big league backup.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/chat.php?id=2008100301&rnd=3

BRM
10-03-2008, 02:59 PM
So his answer is 'no' on Hanigan. The question was can Hanigan be an average big league catcher and the answer was he could be a career backup.

dougdirt
10-03-2008, 03:01 PM
What I have to ask is what does a 'starter' have to do if hitting for average, drawing walks, being a good game caller, being a good thrower on runners trying to steal and he can block and field well? Thats what Matt Eddy used to describe Hanigan, but somewhere in that translation that description is that of a backup catcher. Color me confused.

BRM
10-03-2008, 03:03 PM
What I have to ask is what does a 'starter' have to do if hitting for average, drawing walks, being a good game caller, being a good thrower on runners trying to steal and he can block and field well? Thats what Matt Eddy used to describe Hanigan, but somewhere in that translation that description is that of a backup catcher. Color me confused.

Exactly. I thought the answer was a tad wishy-washy.

OnBaseMachine
10-03-2008, 03:05 PM
Baseball America's stuff seems to be slipping lately. I'm disappointed they have yet to release more info on International signings, specifically a list of all signings like they usually do around this time.

BRM
10-03-2008, 03:09 PM
A: Matt Eddy: It's a surprising development, made more stark by the fact that Bruce was shifted to right in favor of Corey Patterson, who didn't hit a lick this year. With Drew Stubbs in the organization, though, the move was probably inevitable.


I'm so happy Corey Patterson got a mention in a BA chat.

M2
10-03-2008, 03:48 PM
"One source I talked with even said he wasn't expecting anything from Bailey at the big league level until he was at least 24."

A point more than a few people have been making since before the Reds drafted Bailey. He's 22 now. He'll surely burn up his last option when he's 23, meaning the real question is, even if Bailey does ultimately pan out, what are the chances he'll ever be of much help to the Reds? He's now got a very narrow to make good in a Reds uniform. In fact, it's entirely possible he'll be shipped out this offseason, partially for that very reason.

With Bailey, the Reds never reconciled who they drafted with how he was being handled.

RedsManRick
10-03-2008, 07:29 PM
What I have to ask is what does a 'starter' have to do if hitting for average, drawing walks, being a good game caller, being a good thrower on runners trying to steal and he can block and field well? Thats what Matt Eddy used to describe Hanigan, but somewhere in that translation that description is that of a backup catcher. Color me confused.

My thoughts exactly. If you handle a staff well, throw well, and get on base, doesn't that make you better than about half the starting catchers in baseball?

fearofpopvol1
10-03-2008, 09:23 PM
I really think the Reds should count on Hannigan as the catcher for 2009. I think he'll at least be league average both offensively and defensively (maybe slightly better). No point in wasting a bunch of resources to acquire a catcher who would probably profile similarly.

SS on the other hand...

Screwball
10-04-2008, 03:49 AM
Eventually you have to stop making excuses for a prospect you like. Last year it was his injuries. This year it's his pitches being taken away from him. Next year it's that he misses Grandma's home cookin'.

Fact of the matter is Daryl's only about 6 mos. older than Homer and put up better numbers at the same level with the same defense (DT's FIP is still better). While BA might question his second offering, I've read (and seen for myself) he throws a pretty good curve at ~74 mph for strikes (albeit not always consistently). He can gear up his FB in the low to mid 90s with decent command, and has good K/BB rates.

The only real point I'll concede is that DT is a legitimate health risk. However I still much prefer what I've seen from him (stuff-wise) to what I've seen from Homer Bailey.