Matt Holliday = Mark McGwire Deal?

[Krusty]

You have to wonder if Uncle Walt plans to make the same splash with acquiring Matt Holliday as he did at the July 31 trading deadline back in 1997 when he acquired Mark McGwire for T.J. Mathews, Eric Ludwick and B. Stein? And even though McGwire would have been a free agent at the end of the season, Jockerty was able to sign him to a contract extension that September.

When the Cardinals acquired McGwire, that is when their fortunes turned around. Now fastforward to the present and substitute the Reds for the Cardinals and Holliday for McGwire. Think history can repeat itself?

The Rockies are looking for young pitching. Obviously they would ask for either Volquez or Cueto. But with no guarantee that that Holliday would sign a contract extension, what team would risk giving a pitcher of that caliber? Very few unless the Yankees are serious about trading Phillip Hughes, which they even refused to do in the Santana trade talks with Minnesota last year. And with Mussina and Pettite most likely to retire, the Yankees will be looking hard for pitching.

Think Uncle Walt can put together a deal like Homer Bailey, Josh Roenicke and Juan Francisco for Holliday, and sign him to a contract extension? Would Holliday have the same magnitude for the Reds as McGwire did with the Cardinals. Or would the Reds be making a serious mistake putting all that payroll into one player? If the Reds are close like several have said, does acquiring Holliday put them over the top, and replace the lost production with the departures of Griffey and Dunn?

[redsmetz]

If he can pull off a deal at the price he got when with St. Louis, but you're talking about giving up considerably more than the Cards did. The players the A's received proved to be fairly pedestrian. I understand the trade market viz young prospects has changed dramatically in the last several years (part of Krivsky's ultimate downfall, I think), I wouldn't want to give up so much.

I think you're right, given today's trade market, that we'd have to pay such a price, and I'm hesitant to go there (and it may be that you've describe the Cardinal trio as it is).

[Highlifeman21]

While a deal resembling the one that brought McGwire to the Cards if it happens for the Reds would be a step in the right direction, Holliday is the wrong target, IMO.

[dougdirt]

Doubt it happens like that, because Holliday is set on testing free agency. I also doubt Bailey is included because they apparently don't want him and if he pitches well enough to change their minds I doubt we want to get rid of him.

[Joseph]

Weren't the three guys he gave up for Mac akin to giving up Cueto, Roenicke, and Stubbs now? IE a couple solid AAA guys and a young 'stud' pitcher? I know they didn't pan out that way, but wasn't it the line of thought back then?

[PuffyPig]

Weren't the three guys he gave up for Mac akin to giving up Cueto, Roenicke, and Stubbs now? IE a couple solid AAA guys and a young 'stud' pitcher? I know they didn't pan out that way, but wasn't it the line of thought back then?


No, none of them, at the time, projected to be a Cueto.

Remember, Cueto has already pitched a full season in the majors as a regular starting pitcher.

And why are we starting a new thread on exactly the same thing we have going on the previous one?

[BCubb2003]

I don't think we should expect history to repeat itself unless Matt Holiday hits 74 home runs in a season, cleanly.

[RedEye]

I don't think we should expect history to repeat itself unless Matt Holiday hits 74 home runs in a season, cleanly.

But then history wouldn't be repeating itself...

[BCubb2003]

But then history wouldn't be repeating itself...

I knew someone would say that, but I meant in terms of Holliday being the Reds' McGwire.

[Benihana]

I would do that deal in a second but I think the Rox want more. If like doug said, they have no interest in Bailey, I would see if they had interest in Arroyo.

[RedsManRick]

The difference is that McGwire was acquired on the cheap. The package that landed him was Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, and Blake Stein. None of those were top prospects. The Rockies want a lot more value than that.

Furthermore, Boras is Holliday's agent. There is no way in the world Holliday doesn't test free agency. If you've followed the Manny saga closely, let's just say it wasn't Manny's idea to force his way out of Boston.

[Krusty]

True but the Reds should have an idea of what kind of contract to expect from Holliday given what Manny Ramirez receives in free agency. That will tell alot how much interest the Reds supposedly have in Holliday, if any.

[Spring~Fields]

True but the Reds should have an idea of what kind of contract to expect from Holliday given what Manny Ramirez receives in free agency. That will tell alot how much interest the Reds supposedly have in Holliday, if any.

How much is Teixeira going to cost?
How much would Holliday cost?
If the Reds can sign Teixeira why sign or why try to trade for a one year of Holliday?
If the Reds can’t afford Teixeira and can’t sign him, how could the Reds afford or sign Holliday?



Mark Teixeira Age 28 2008 $12,500,000 Matt Holliday Age 28 2008: $9,500,000
Career .290 .378 .541 .919 Career .319 .386 .552 .938

3Yr Splits 3Yr Splits
Total .298 .393 .541 .934 Total .329 .400 .579 .979

vs. Left .319 .411 .544 .955 vs. Left .306 .398 .547 .945
vs. Right .289 .385 .540 .925 vs. Right .335 .401 .588 .989

Runners On .302 .417 .542 .959 Runners On .318 .395 .534 .929
Scoring Position .331 .463 .579 1.042 Scoring Position .302 .395 .483 .878

[jojo]

If the Reds can sign Teixeira why sign or why try to trade for a one year of Holliday?

Because the Reds already have a first baseman....

[Krusty]

Because the Reds already have a first baseman....

I think the Reds improve themselves defensively by signing Texieria to play lst base and shift Votto to LF. But is the switch hitting Texieria (who bats better lefthanded than right) the answer to the Reds need for a righthanded hitter?

[jojo]

I think the Reds improve themselves defensively by signing Texieria to play lst base and shift Votto to LF. But is the switch hitting Texieria (who bats better lefthanded than right) the answer to the Reds need for a righthanded hitter?

I think they can find a solution for leftfield that doesn't involve spending $125-150M on a firstbaseman.

[Spring~Fields]

I think they can find a solution for leftfield that doesn't involve spending $125-150M on a firstbaseman.

So then Holliday will cost the Reds $125-150M for a left fielder if they were to trade pitching for him and were able to resign him?

Are left fielders hard to find?

[HokieRed]

I don't see any of these scenarios happening. Instead I see Walt beaming over a very productive, very cheap trio of left-handers in LF, RF, and at 1B in 2010: Votto, Bruce, Alonso. There will be plenty of righty hitting, too, but it's going to be coming from the other 5 spots and from guys who are not yet on the 25 man roster.

[Spring~Fields]

I think the Reds improve themselves defensively by signing Texieria to play lst base and shift Votto to LF. But is the switch hitting Texieria (who bats better lefthanded than right) the answer to the Reds need for a righthanded hitter?

They say that the Reds need a right handed bat, but, from what I have seen in the stats the Reds need batters that can hit or get on base against right handed pitching mostly.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=OPS&order=false&season=2008&split=32&seasonType=2&type=reg

I just don't see Reds ownership paying for long term contracts with a big price tag attached.

They did pay big for Cordero, so, who know's what they might do?

Ownership does need some marquee names to attract seats to sit in the seats.

[jojo]

So then Holliday will cost the Reds $125-150M for a left fielder if they were to trade pitching for him and were able to resign him?

Are left fielders hard to find?

You don't see me arguing the Reds should do that either......

[Spring~Fields]

You don't see me arguing the Reds should do that either......

No, and I agree with you. I just wanted someone to price Holliday in comparison to the other guy.

I think that Jocketty will come up with better functional ideas, price and production wise. Not guys that will perform equally to these guys, but players who do an adequate job.

Now who are they??? 64 dollar question. :)

After thought. Has anyone done a study of what, or how much of additional run producers and defense do the Reds need to be a reasonably good team next year? I mean, how much more would a couple guys have to bring to the team to offset the RS/RA diff ?

[remdog]

I haven't done a study but, a year ago, I suggested going after Jayson Werth. After a bit of a down year in '07 he rebounded with this line:


134 418 73 114 16 3 24 67 57 119 20 1 .273 .363 .498 .861

His cost this year is $1.7M and he plays an excellent OF. This is what I would be looking for in LF.

Suggestions of Jaun Riveria and Jeremy Herrmedia have been made here and I can see the possibilites of them fitting the above example.

I don't think it's necessary to break the bank for a LF'er in order for this team to upgrade successfully in the OF.

Rem

[Spring~Fields]

I haven't done a study but, a year ago, I suggested going after Jayson Werth. After a bit of a down year in '07 he rebounded with this line:


134 418 73 114 16 3 24 67 57 119 20 1 .273 .363 .498 .861

His cost this year is $1.7M and he plays an excellent OF. This is what I would be looking for in LF.

Suggestions of Jaun Riveria and Jeremy Herrmedia have been made here and I can see the possibilites of them fitting the above example.

I don't think it's necessary to break the bank for a LF'er in order for this team to upgrade successfully in the OF.

Rem

Yes those kind of guys on offense that can also field. Stats like that. .363 .498 .861 OBP and SLG

Some players that can produce those kind of numbers in the positions where needed. I know short or catcher is too much to ask for right now, but the other positions. I think they are out there and as you said, don't have to break the bank.

*Edit
Naturally the players that have the higher OBP SLG and OPS are the expensive ones or those that teams might not want to be unloading. Nothing is ever easy is it.

Left Field
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=onBasePct&split=0&league=nl&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=lf&startDate=null&endDate=null&qual=false

Right Field
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=onBasePct&split=0&league=nl&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=rf&startDate=null&endDate=null&qual=false

Centerfield
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?sort=onBasePct&split=0&league=nl&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=reg&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&minpa=0&hand=a&pos=cf&startDate=null&endDate=null&qual=false

Sure glad that I am not a GM.

[mth123]

I haven't done a study but, a year ago, I suggested going after Jayson Werth. After a bit of a down year in '07 he rebounded with this line:


134 418 73 114 16 3 24 67 57 119 20 1 .273 .363 .498 .861

His cost this year is $1.7M and he plays an excellent OF. This is what I would be looking for in LF.

Suggestions of Jaun Riveria and Jeremy Herrmedia have been made here and I can see the possibilites of them fitting the above example.

I don't think it's necessary to break the bank for a LF'er in order for this team to upgrade successfully in the OF.

Rem

I like Werth too. When the Dodgers let him go, the Reds were looking for a RH bat. I was hoping for Werth among others. Instead, the Reds let Philly have him and then traded a couple of prospects for the more expensive and inferior player who Werth replaced (Jeff Conine). Its the primary reason that I tought the Conine acquisition was an awful one and was the last straw for me with WK. There were younger RH bats out there that would have been franchise assets, but Krivsky was looking in the wrong place. Instead he traded for a guy who costs 4 times the salary.

This "crisis" over needing a RH bat now would not exist if WK had done the right thing then. I continue to believe that series of events is Krivsky's worst move, not "the trade," not the folly of Kirk Saarloos, not keeping Quentin McCracken over Cody Ross, not even Stanton or Cormier, but the passing over of a piece like Werth that the team was obviously going to need for multiple seasons in order to assemble a properly structured roster, just so he could acquire a declining, more costly, shorter term choice who provided "veteran presence."

[remdog]

Thanks for the 'study' SF.

While looking through that, a couple of names jumped out:

#1. Cody Ross: The Reds acquired him for a PTBNL which turned out to be Ben Kozlowski. How nice would have been to have him this year for $390K! Plus the guy can cover some ground in CF.

Instead, after 5 AB's the Reds sold him to the Marlins for cash. Wouldn't ya' like to have that one back? :)

#2. Jody Gerut: here's a guy that was pulled off the scrap heap and had a solid season. Someone mentioned Jim Edmonds being 'salvaged' by the Cubs but I was in San Diego when that happened and the paper there said that the Pads felt they had a better player, for less money, in Gerut. Edmonds was listed as receiving $8M, Gerut got $700K. Covers more ground currently too. Pads win that decision, IMO.

Rem

[remdog]

mth:

:lol: I replied to SF's post first and then saw what you posted re: Cody Ross. :lol:

Yeah, I'd like to have Cody back for whatever the Marlins paid the Reds for him. In fact, I'd send them back double if they send back Ross. Somehow, I don't think that's gonna' happen. :(

Rem

[Krusty]

Buyer beware......up till this season, what did Werth actually do?

[Spring~Fields]

Thanks for the 'study' SF.

While looking through that, a couple of names jumped out:

#1. Cody Ross: The Reds acquired him for a PTBNL which turned out to be Ben Kozlowski. How nice would have been to have him this year for $390K! Plus the guy can cover some ground in CF.

Instead, after 5 AB's the Reds sold him to the Marlins for cash. Wouldn't ya' like to have that one back? :)

#2. Jody Gerut: here's a guy that was pulled off the scrap heap and had a solid season. Someone mentioned Jim Edmonds being 'salvaged' by the Cubs but I was in San Diego when that happened and the paper there said that the Pads felt they had a better player, for less money, in Gerut. Edmonds was listed as receiving $8M, Gerut got $700K. Covers more ground currently too. Pads win that decision, IMO.

Rem


Brian Giles .306 .398 .456 .854
Elijah Dukes .264 .386 .478 .864
Xavier Nady .330 .383 .535 .919
Brad Hawpe .283 .381 .498 .879
Ryan Ludwick .299 .375 .591 .966
Andre Ethier .305 .375 .510 .885
Nate Schierholtz .320 .370 .493 .864
Randy Winn .306 .363 .426 .790
Jayson Werth .273 .363 .498 .861

I can see why some like Giles, Nady, Winn and Werth with the higher OBP and SLG, and I can see why many indicate that it is not necessary to sign a player to a long term and high priced contract, with the risk.

[Spring~Fields]

Buyer beware......up till this season, what did Werth actually do?

What would it take to get these two guys from Texas?

CHRISTOPHER DAVIS and move him to left
HTTP://SPORTS.ESPN.GO.COM/MLB/PLAYERS/STATS?PLAYERID=29170

http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=31402

Jarrod Saltalamacchia C
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=28663

[SteelSD]

Buyer beware......up till this season, what did Werth actually do?

Well, that's a good question. Werth, while being a more-than-acceptable RH platoon solution, isn't the guy a team should target if they expect more than that.

Splits: Career

vs. RHP: .347 OBP/.408 SLG (.755 OPS)
vs. LHP: .374 OBP/.545 SLG (.920 OPS)

Splits: 2007-2008

2007 vs. RHP: .371 OBP/.389 SLG (.760 OPS)
2007 vs. LHP: .467 OBP/.591 SLG (1.058 OPS)

2008 vs. RHP: .360 OBP/.407 SLG (.767 OPS)
2008 vs. LHP: .368 OBP/.652 SLG (1.020 OPS)

While those OBP numbers are solid for any hitter versus his worst matchup, Werth's SLG performance goes into the tank against RHP. That being said, he's probably the best kind of platoon player- one who crushes his best matchups and who can avoid Outs pretty well and acquire bases adequately if used as a Pinch Hitter versus righties.

If Werthcan be acquired relatively cheaply, he's a good guy to target IF the Reds know going in how to properly use him (a big question mark considering the manager). Proper usage is important because the Reds already have enough RH hitters who don't perform versus RHP.

But...

Let's say the Reds could hatch a plan that also involved acquiring basically the LH version of Werth- Ryan Church. Here's Church:

Splits: Career

vs. RHP: .354 OBP/.476 SLG (.830 OPS)
vs. LHP: .327 OBP/.397 SLG (.724 OPS)

Now, keep in mind that Church's numbers have been pushed down by playing in by playing in pitcher's parks from 2005-to-present. Here are Church's splits:

Splits: 2007-2008

2006 vs. RHP: .380 OBP/.558 SLG (.938 OPS)
2006 vs. LHP: .321 OBP/.429 SLG (.750 OPS)

2007 vs. RHP: .360 OBP/.506 SLG (.866 OPS)
2007 vs. LHP: .316 OBP/.339 SLG (.655 OPS)

2008 vs. RHP: .360 OBP/.455 SLG (.815 OPS)
2008 vs. LHP: .319 OBP/.406 SLG (.725 OPS)

Should the Reds do something akin to acquiring both players on the cheap I'd consider that a significant win for the franchise. Do both players project to get paid some decent money (still less than 5M per player)? Sure. But each should be reasonable targets in combination for a team that definitely needs to cobble together some offense for next season.

[remdog]

I'm not suggesting that the Reds go after Jayson Werth. I'm saying that the time to go get him was after the '07 season. I'm suggesting that looking for someone similar to Werth (after the '07 season) would be a better use of resourses (read money) than spending big bucks on someone like Holliday for a one year rental.

Spend money/trade players on filling the SS position first and foremost. Expecting Gonzo to fill that position is asking for a huge case of heartburn that no amount of Zantac is likely to cure.

Rem

[Spring~Fields]

Well, that's a good question. Werth, while being a more-than-acceptable RH platoon solution, isn't the guy a team should target if they expect more than that.

Splits: Career

vs. RHP: .347 OBP/.408 SLG (.755 OPS)
vs. LHP: .374 OBP/.545 SLG (.920 OPS)

Splits: 2007-2008

2007 vs. RHP: .371 OBP/.389 SLG (.760 OPS)
2007 vs. LHP: .467 OBP/.591 SLG (1.058 OPS)

2008 vs. RHP: .360 OBP/.407 SLG (.767 OPS)
2008 vs. LHP: .368 OBP/.652 SLG (1.020 OPS)

While those OBP numbers are solid for any hitter versus his worst matchup, Werth's SLG performance goes into the tank against RHP. That being said, he's probably the best kind of platoon player- one who crushes his best matchups and who can avoid Outs pretty well and acquire bases adequately if used as a Pinch Hitter versus righties.

If Werthcan be acquired relatively cheaply, he's a good guy to target IF the Reds know going in how to properly use him (a big question mark considering the manager). Proper usage is important because the Reds already have enough RH hitters who don't perform versus RHP.

But...

Let's say the Reds could hatch a plan that also involved acquiring basically the LH version of Werth- Ryan Church. Here's Church:

Splits: Career

vs. RHP: .354 OBP/.476 SLG (.830 OPS)
vs. LHP: .327 OBP/.397 SLG (.724 OPS)

Now, keep in mind that Church's numbers have been pushed down by playing in by playing in pitcher's parks from 2005-to-present. Here are Church's splits:

Splits: 2007-2008

2006 vs. RHP: .380 OBP/.558 SLG (.938 OPS)
2006 vs. LHP: .321 OBP/.429 SLG (.750 OPS)

2007 vs. RHP: .360 OBP/.506 SLG (.866 OPS)
2007 vs. LHP: .316 OBP/.339 SLG (.655 OPS)

2008 vs. RHP: .360 OBP/.455 SLG (.815 OPS)
2008 vs. LHP: .319 OBP/.406 SLG (.725 OPS)

Should the Reds do something akin to acquiring both players on the cheap I'd consider that a significant win for the franchise. Do both players project to get paid some decent money (still less than 5M per player)? Sure. But each should be reasonable targets in combination for a team that definitely needs to cobble together some offense for next season.

In support of your comments and work above.

With most of the plate appearances coming against right handed pitching the Reds offense needs several upgrades, if the sample of the 2008 season held true.

On the other side of the coin the Reds have several batters who had a decent set of stats against left handed pitching.

The media and the Reds front office keeps promoting the idea that they need a right handed bat, as if that is a major cure all to their offensive woes, when they actually need to improve with several players against right handed pitching.

Then as mentioned the Reds have a manager who doesn’t seem to be overly concerned on how he uses his right handed pitching challenged batters against right handed pitching.

Then we read from the fans that the offense stinks, well, yes, it is suppose to when a large percentage of the players struggle against pitchers that they get the most at bats and plate appearances against. Next year a couple of these might even regress, Hairston and Dickerson.

I struggle to see how Walt Jocketty improves the team without taking on some risk from a weak free agent market and by trading off some pitching that the Reds really do not have an abundance of if runs allowed indicates anything. I am not trying to be indifferent, or Joe critical or skepticle here, I just don't see how the GM can make significant gains next season, and really want other's to change my mind. The old hope springs eternal thing.



Vs. Right handed pitching
J. Hairston Jr. .316 .366 .458 .824
C. Dickerson .309 .411 .654 1.065
Joey Votto .299 .370 .510 .880
Jay Bruce .286 .340 .529 .869
Ryan Hanigan .298 .421 .383 .804
E. Encarnacion .235 .315 .450 .765
B. Phillips .247 .293 .383 .676
J. Keppinger .225 .265 .284 .550
W. Castillo .296 .321 .296 .618
Ryan Freel .261 .297 .290 .587
Danny Richar .229 .229 .286 .514
Adam Rosales .167 .211 .222 .433

Vs. Left handed pitching
J. Keppinger .360 .412 .489 .901
J. Hairston Jr. .345 .418 .548 .966
Ryan Freel .339 .388 .435 .824
Paul Janish .323 .400 .387 .787
B. Phillips .296 .358 .586 .944
Joey Votto .292 .365 .497 .862
E. Encarnacion .292 .401 .507 .908
C. Dickerson .286 .423 .429 .852
Adam Rosales .273 .273 .273 .545
Ryan Hanigan .237 .293 .342 .635
W. Castillo .200 .200 .400 .600

[Scrap Irony]

Nice call on Church, Steel. He wasn't one I'd targeted before, but he'd be very valuable in the right situation/ platoon. (Church v. RH, Keppinger v. LH in F?)

As for hope, Spring:
* Neither Phillips nor EdE are as historically poor as they were this season against the opposite hand
* Keppinger, Castillo, and Freel are recognized as, at this moment on this team, back-ups or platoon partners with other, more successful hitters from the other side. (At least that seems a reasonable deduction, via Jocketty's discussions on need.)
* Votto and Bruce should progress and show pretty solid indications that they should hit against their opposite hands as early as 2009. Votto, in particular, looks promising.
* Jocketty has stated he's after a "big bat" to hit cleanup. That likely shifts Phillips down in the order, perhaps below EdE and into the sixth or seventh spot, wherein his OBP-challenged bat won't hamstrin quite so many rallies
* If Jocketty is indeed looking for that "big bat," it's likely said bat would have solid history of hitting RH, as they are the majority of arms found in mlb.
* If "big bat" is found, lesser bats won't play as much or will be parts of platoons only. Keppinge is valuable hitter if placed in a position correctly. Due to a combination of injuries and ineptitude, he was asked to do too much last season. The bet here is that won't happen again.
* Two historically poor hitters have already been jettisoned from last season. More should follow.

[OnBaseMachine]

This winter will be Holliday season

The Rockies have begun talking to teams about superstar outfielder Matt Holliday and are very likely to trade him this winter after determining they won't be able to sign him to a long-term contract when his current deal expires after next season. Some surprising small-market teams are said to be involved despite the great likelihood that they would have Holliday for only a year.

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has nothing but kind words for Holliday, and he's said to be willing to give Holliday a five-year deal. But Holliday knows that a year from now he can shoot for the same $200 million, 10-year target that Teixeira's aiming for.

O'Dowd has told colleagues that he'd love to keep Holliday but is resigned to being realistic about this. Thus he is said to be determined to find his best deal for the 28-year-old outfielder. While O'Dowd is open to different packages depending on the trading partner, he'd like to acquire a young pitcher who could become a No. 2-type starter as part of the package.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/24/heyman.scoop/index.html

[Will M]

This winter will be Holliday season

The Rockies have begun talking to teams about superstar outfielder Matt Holliday and are very likely to trade him this winter after determining they won't be able to sign him to a long-term contract when his current deal expires after next season. Some surprising small-market teams are said to be involved despite the great likelihood that they would have Holliday for only a year.

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has nothing but kind words for Holliday, and he's said to be willing to give Holliday a five-year deal. But Holliday knows that a year from now he can shoot for the same $200 million, 10-year target that Teixeira's aiming for.

O'Dowd has told colleagues that he'd love to keep Holliday but is resigned to being realistic about this. Thus he is said to be determined to find his best deal for the 28-year-old outfielder. While O'Dowd is open to different packages depending on the trading partner, he'd like to acquire a young pitcher who could become a No. 2-type starter as part of the package.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/24/heyman.scoop/index.html

If the market is sane he should get LESS than the Mets got for Santana.
The best pitcher in baseball has a lot more value than Holliday.
If a team is going to give the Rockies grade A talent and then have to sign Holliday to a fat deal why not just sign Texeira?

Teams can ask for the moon and stars but they don't get it. Look at the recent deals and the return for Santana, Haren, Dunn, etc was a lot less than fans or the GM wanted initially.

[blumj]

Santana's no trade clause and his contract demands gave him the ability to dictate the terms, though. The Rockies have the freedom to take the best offer, which the Twins didn't have. Look at what the Orioles got for Bedard and what the Marlins got for Cabrera.

[Will M]

Santana's no trade clause and his contract demands gave him the ability to dictate the terms, though. The Rockies have the freedom to take the best offer, which the Twins didn't have. Look at what the Orioles got for Bedard and what the Marlins got for Cabrera.

Bedard had TWO years left on his deal as did Cabrera. Santana had only ONE year left as does Holliday.

[red-in-la]

I dislike this discussion....I thought we FINALLY got the kids playing like a team when we got rid of JR and Dunn, players that seemed bigger than the game. It was like who cares who wins, JR needs to hit his 600th HR......or who care when Dunn strikes out, as long as he hits a solo shot that bounces into the river.

I LIKE watching the Rays play.....the most famous players they have are still just players.

[RedEye]

This winter will be Holliday season

The Rockies have begun talking to teams about superstar outfielder Matt Holliday and are very likely to trade him this winter after determining they won't be able to sign him to a long-term contract when his current deal expires after next season. Some surprising small-market teams are said to be involved despite the great likelihood that they would have Holliday for only a year.

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has nothing but kind words for Holliday, and he's said to be willing to give Holliday a five-year deal. But Holliday knows that a year from now he can shoot for the same $200 million, 10-year target that Teixeira's aiming for.

O'Dowd has told colleagues that he'd love to keep Holliday but is resigned to being realistic about this. Thus he is said to be determined to find his best deal for the 28-year-old outfielder. While O'Dowd is open to different packages depending on the trading partner, he'd like to acquire a young pitcher who could become a No. 2-type starter as part of the package.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/24/heyman.scoop/index.html

Please tell me the Reds aren't going to trade Cueto for Holliday. Please.

[blumj]

Bedard had TWO years left on his deal as did Cabrera. Santana had only ONE year left as does Holliday.
Still, Santana had the ability to limit the competition for him to those willing to pay his price as well as the Twins price, and that's leverage the Rockies have that the Twins didn't. Doesn't mean the price will skyrocket, but it does increase the chances that more teams could take part in the competition.

[OnBaseMachine]

Please tell me the Reds aren't going to trade Cueto for Holliday. Please.

I hope Jocketty's not that stupid. He seems like a smart guy, and judging from his past comments he seems to think very highly of Cueto.

[Mario-Rijo]

This winter will be Holliday season

The Rockies have begun talking to teams about superstar outfielder Matt Holliday and are very likely to trade him this winter after determining they won't be able to sign him to a long-term contract when his current deal expires after next season. Some surprising small-market teams are said to be involved despite the great likelihood that they would have Holliday for only a year.

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has nothing but kind words for Holliday, and he's said to be willing to give Holliday a five-year deal. But Holliday knows that a year from now he can shoot for the same $200 million, 10-year target that Teixeira's aiming for.

O'Dowd has told colleagues that he'd love to keep Holliday but is resigned to being realistic about this. Thus he is said to be determined to find his best deal for the 28-year-old outfielder. While O'Dowd is open to different packages depending on the trading partner, he'd like to acquire a young pitcher who could become a No. 2-type starter as part of the package.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/10/24/heyman.scoop/index.html

Very telling piece. A couple of things jump out at me.

#1 He'd like to acquire a pitcher who could become a No. 2-type starter (*cough homer* cough*), which I'll leave up to your own interpretation.

#2 He's just looking for the best package period.

#3 Why the heck would you sign a guy who will be 30 years old about the time he signs (1-15-1980) to a 10 year deal worth 20 million annually? 6 maybe 7 years I could see but 10? If that's actually what he wants he might wanna sign an extension soon if he's smart. 7 and 140 is alot more realistic for him. Tex is another boat as he is 28 going on 29 in april and is a FA now.

[BRM]

Fay thinks it will take Cueto to get Holliday, according to his blog. Here's an article on Holliday and Atkins from the Denver Post over the weekend.




PHILADELPHIA — While the preference would be to trade infielder Garrett Atkins to land a starting pitcher, the Rockies have made it known to opposing executives that Matt Holliday is available.

Moving Atkins for pitching — the Angels, Twins and Red Sox are all potential fits — makes the most sense for the Rockies' roster with Ian Stewart at third base and Todd Helton expected to return as the everyday first baseman.

"It's going to be interesting to see what happens," Holliday has said repeatedly.

Trading Holliday opens up a spot in left field that Stewart might fill, depending how the winter plays out. Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd said recently the club has important decisions to make with personnel, but indicated that trades wouldn't start taking shape for several weeks.

The groundwork on deals is typically laid at the general managers' meetings, which will be held the first week of November in Southern California.

Holliday, who will be a free agent after next season, is monitoring the trade speculation. He turned down a multiyear contract offer last spring, and there has been no progress on a new deal since. The usual suspects will be involved for Holliday, namely Boston, the Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Mets and possibly even teams like the Royals and Nationals.

Colorado wants any package for Holliday to center around an elite starting pitcher, which could make a deal difficult since not many are available. San Diego ace Jake Peavy is, but he did not include the Rockies on the list of teams recently submitted for whom he would waive his no-trade clause.

San Francisco right-hander Matt Cain might be dangled, though it's hard to see the Rockies trading their best player to a division rival.

[dougdirt]

Sigh.... It will take Cueto + Francisco + something else to get Holliday. I said that three weeks ago. Thats why it won't happen. Jocketty loves him some big bats, but I don't think he is willing to give up Cueto+ to get it done for just 1 year.

[BRM]

Sigh.... It will take Cueto + Francisco + something else to get Holliday. I said that three weeks ago. Thats why it won't happen. Jocketty loves him some big bats, but I don't think he is willing to give up Cueto+ to get it done for just 1 year.

I sure hope you're right.

[fearofpopvol1]

Me too. That would be a huge mistake. I'm hoping Holiday lands somewhere else soon so we can stop the speculation on this.

[WebScorpion]

Sigh.... It will take Cueto + Francisco + something else to get Holliday. I said that three weeks ago. Thats why it won't happen. Jocketty loves him some big bats, but I don't think he is willing to give up Cueto+ to get it done for just 1 year.

Just to extend the McGwire correlation a little further, IIRC Jocketty's deal was with an eye toward Mark signing a long term contract with St. Louis. Now, Holliday long term at a reasonable price is a whooole nother story... :) I wonder if they'd consider a Bailey, Roenicke, Lotzkar type package? IMO, Bailey is next year's faded prospect who finally gets it story...a change of scenery may be exactly the kick in the pants he needs to fire his furnace. In St. Louis, Jocketty's M.O. was to find someone he thought would love the St. Louis baseball atmosphere, trade for him in his walk year and then sign him long term...that way he'd pay for a rental and get a keeper. That's how he got McGwire, not to mention Scott Rolen, Woody Williams, Will Clark, Larry Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis. I wonder if Walt will try that with the Cincinnati 'baseball atmosphere'?

[dougdirt]

Just to extend the McGwire correlation a little further, IIRC Jocketty's deal was with an eye toward Mark signing a long term contract with St. Louis. Now, Holliday long term at a reasonable price is a whooole nother story... :) I wonder if they'd consider a Bailey, Roenicke, Lotzkar type package? IMO, Bailey is next year's faded prospect who finally gets it story...a change of scenery may be exactly the kick in the pants he needs to fire his furnace. In St. Louis, Jocketty's M.O. was to find someone he thought would love the St. Louis baseball atmosphere, trade for him in his walk year and then sign him long term...that way he'd pay for a rental and get a keeper. That's how he got McGwire, not to mention Scott Rolen, Woody Williams, Will Clark, Larry Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis. I wonder if Walt will try that with the Cincinnati 'baseball atmosphere'?

The Rockies have apparently told the Reds they don't want Bailey.... so I doubt they would take anything close to the offer you suggested. If the Reds want him its going to take Cueto + or Volquez.

[OnBaseMachine]

If the Reds want him its going to take Cueto + or Volquez.

This is the part where I hang up on the Rockies. I would rather go after a cheaper option like Nelson Cruz or Jeremy Hermida anyway.

[dougdirt]

This is the part where I hang up on the Rockies. I would rather go after a cheaper option like Nelson Cruz or Jeremy Hermida anyway.
I wouldn't hang up, I would just say if they want Cueto+ for Holliday, I want Holliday+Tulo. Then they go no and I say sorry we couldn't work anything out. I still say go for Beltre and push EE to LF, kill two birds with one stone on that one.

[WebScorpion]

The Rockies have apparently told the Reds they don't want Bailey.... so I doubt they would take anything close to the offer you suggested. If the Reds want him its going to take Cueto + or Volquez.
The only way I see them getting a front line ML starter for Holliday is if he signs long term with the acquiring team. Normally, for a one-year rental, the price begins with 2 first round-type prospects, no Major Leaguers. :eek: Of course, they'll probably get more out of him if they wait until mid-season. ;)

[OnBaseMachine]

I like to the Beltre idea too. But I'd really like to make a deal with Texas centered around Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus. It would probably take Homer Bailey plus a couple other good prospects but it would shore up the left field spot now and the SS position from 2009 on.

[BRM]

I still say go for Beltre and push EE to LF, kill two birds with one stone on that one.

I wouldn't have a problem with that. I get the feeling Walt has no interest in moving EE to LF though.

[BRM]

I like to the Beltre idea too. But I'd really like to make a deal with Texas centered around Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus. It would probably take Homer Bailey plus a couple other good prospects but it would shore up the left field spot now and the SS position from 2009 on.

SS? You're not comfortable with the trio of Gonzalez, Keppinger and Janish there next year?

[OnBaseMachine]

SS? You're not comfortable with the trio of Gonzalez, Keppinger and Janish there next year?

If we could combine Janish's defense, Gonzalez's 2007 power, and Keppinger's 2007 hitting, we'd have one heckuva shortstop.

[Will M]

Funny. I was thinking this on the way home from work and posted it in another thread. Beltre to 3B and EE to LF. It will be a lot cheaper than Holliday, Ordonex, Tex, etc

Plus it improved the defense.

[Mario-Rijo]

Funny. I was thinking this on the way home from work and posted it in another thread. Beltre to 3B and EE to LF. It will be a lot cheaper than Holliday, Ordonex, Tex, etc

Plus it improved the defense.

Yeah I am starting to come around to this more and more also. Problem is Beltre is only making 12 mill, is that enough for the M's to decide to deal him and if so they will likely be asking a fair price considering he should also be a Type B at least next offseason. I don't know that they will deal him unless they are bowled over.

But if you could make that deal and then get Martin and Izturis from the respective LA teams you would have one strong defensive and offensive club.

Dickerson/Hairston CF
Izturis SS
Martin C
Votto 1B
Beltre 3B
Bruce RF
EE LF
BP 2B

Looking at that lineup makes me think you might have to deal BP to make it work, I can't imagine Dusty would drop him that far and/or BP would it take it very well. But if he did accept it that would be a pretty interesting team to follow from all aspects. What I find really intriguing about it is that they can all run respectably well also.

[Krusty]

Just to extend the McGwire correlation a little further, IIRC Jocketty's deal was with an eye toward Mark signing a long term contract with St. Louis. Now, Holliday long term at a reasonable price is a whooole nother story... :) I wonder if they'd consider a Bailey, Roenicke, Lotzkar type package? IMO, Bailey is next year's faded prospect who finally gets it story...a change of scenery may be exactly the kick in the pants he needs to fire his furnace. In St. Louis, Jocketty's M.O. was to find someone he thought would love the St. Louis baseball atmosphere, trade for him in his walk year and then sign him long term...that way he'd pay for a rental and get a keeper. That's how he got McGwire, not to mention Scott Rolen, Woody Williams, Will Clark, Larry Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis. I wonder if Walt will try that with the Cincinnati 'baseball atmosphere'?

The only problem is Holliday's agent is Scott Boras. And you know he will wait to see what Manny Ramirez gets in free agency before talking contract extension with Holliday. Do the Reds assume that risk knowing that they might end up with a one year rental? Are they willing to pay 20 to 25 million a season for up to eight years to bring Holliday to Cincinnati. I think it might be easier to sign a Mark Texieria where you wouldn't have to trade any players.

[Krusty]

The only way I see them getting a front line ML starter for Holliday is if he signs long term with the acquiring team. Normally, for a one-year rental, the price begins with 2 first round-type prospects, no Major Leaguers. :eek: Of course, they'll probably get more out of him if they wait until mid-season. ;)

Don't be surprise to see the Yankees offer a Hughes/Kennedy for Holliday package.