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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #4 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
10-21-2008, 08:56 PM
Neftali Soto was voted the Reds #3 prospect in a landslide. Let the voting begin for #4.

Redszone's Top Prospects:

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto

REDblooded
10-21-2008, 09:05 PM
Gonna keep voting for the top glove until Drew Stubbs gets the nod.

I've seen him make enough adjustments and improvements with the bat to believe that he will have a succesful major league career.

bubbachunk
10-21-2008, 09:06 PM
Stubbs based on tools and small accomplishment in advancing levels this year

OnBaseMachine
10-21-2008, 09:08 PM
This one is tough for me, it come down to Drew Stubbs and Kyle Lotzkar. I've decided to go with Stubbs because I like the way he played better after getting out of the FSL, albeit a small sample size. He plays plus-plus defense at a premium position and has good on-base skills. Power development is the key for Stubbs - will he be a right handed version of Jacoby Ellsbury or will his power develop making him a Mike Cameron type player? Let's hope for the latter.

mth123
10-21-2008, 09:22 PM
The clear top tier is gone and now lots of guys who are bunched together. I'll go with Stubbs simply because his status as a top pick and his meeting all expectations defensively probably give him the most value.

I've been converted as far as Stubbs goes, but I think the Reds should look to deal him. CF talent is scarce this year and he may bring back something good at a need area. I really think that the Reds can adequately cover CF on the cheap for the next few years by platooning Dickerson with Freel now and Heisey down the road. The defense is almost as good and the platoon advantage might even give them an edge on offense. When those guys are getting too expensive or starting to fade, David Sappelt or more likely Yorman Rodriguez will be ready to go. Stubbs is expendable and valuable.

OnBaseMachine
10-21-2008, 09:26 PM
It's looking like this is gonna be a blowout in Stubbs favor. The voting for prospect #5 will be interesting. I expect it to be pretty tight with Duran, Lotzkar, Valaika, and a couple others splitting the majority of the votes.

fearofpopvol1
10-21-2008, 09:44 PM
I chose Stubbs as well, but I was tempted to go with Thompson. The reason being is next to Stubbs (and maybe even more so than Stubbs), I think Thompson has proven more in the upper minors that anyone else has. That doesn't mean he's a better prospect than Stubbs or many of the other options, but he has PROVEN more. For me, I don't rank any of the kids high unless they're tearing it up in the low minors (like Soto for example who I did rate as #3). Some of the other prospect options are performing well in the lower minors, but not many are tearing it up the way Soto has.

I tend to give a bigger benefit of the doubt to those players who have proven more at a higher level than those who haven't. I know some rate more on potential, but not I. With that said, Thompson dominated AA this year, looked good in AAA and I went to his Yankee Stadium debut where he pitched an absolute gem in a packed house against a great lineup. The way that kid battled out of a bases loaded jam with no outs against the heart of the Yankee lineup at a critical point in the game showed a lot to me. He was brilliant. He didn't get lucky either...the kid can pitch. Now, I don't know if his injury history is going to have a big impact on his career or not, but if healthy, I think Thompson could be a very good pitcher.

gedred69
10-21-2008, 10:10 PM
Dorn. Followed closely by Valaika. I continue to favor guys who have a legitamate shot, very soon. Both excelled at AA this year, and if it hadn't been for a 4 week injury, Dorn would have played 1/2 the season at Louisville.

Lockdwn11
10-21-2008, 10:44 PM
Kyle Lotzkar for me but it was a hard choice between Lotzkar and Stubbs

Kc61
10-21-2008, 10:46 PM
Francisco hit .277 with 34 doubles and 23 homers at age 20-21 in a tough pitcher's league, High A ball. Even if he never walks again, that production should put him squarely in the competition for number 5. When you consider his great throwing arm, he probably should be the favorite for number 5.

It's possible that Duran should be number 5. It's also possible he should be number 1. I just don't know enough about him to make a judgment on him and it's hard to evaluate the relative standing of a guy who's still that young and hasn't reached the GCL as yet.

Stubbs should be number 4. If he can continue to hit as well as he did at AA and AAA, he probably should be higher given his defensive abilities.

OnBaseMachine
10-21-2008, 11:09 PM
I'm not sure where I'm gonna vote Juan Francisco. There's a whole lot to love about him: plus-plus power potential to go along with plus present power, rocket arm, solid defender, and he's held his own against older competition. However, the one major weakness he has is lack of plate discipline. I'm still hopeful he can improve it. Like Doug said, an additional three walks per month next season would get him up in the 35 walk area. If he can eventually get it up in the 50-60 range he would be just fine. He's only 21 years old, he's got plenty of time. I'd like to see the Reds keep him in Double-A all year next season no matter what, and maybe even again in 2010. At his age, and with the depth in the organization at 3B, they can afford to be patient with him.

kpresidente
10-21-2008, 11:18 PM
I can't believe Darryl Thompson isn't running away with this.

Mario-Rijo
10-22-2008, 02:21 AM
I'm going Chris Valaika here, IMO he's solid all around with a chance to be a good major leaguer and he's not far off. I would have possibly put Lotzkar ahead of him but that injury is a worrisome one too me. Had it not been for that injury I may have put him here instead with that ceiling. Thompson is really the wild card who I would have definitely put here if it were not for the re-occurrence of his arm issues.

Stubbs was also a factor but I need to see him do more offensively for an extended period of time against the same competition. I just happen to believe the same thing TRF does, the guy just didn't prove a whole lot too me this season despite the excellerated advancement.

Dorn isn't even a thought for me at this point, yeah I believe the kid is a hitter but at this point he has to hit LHP respectably in the minors before I consider him anything more than a platoon type. And it might do for him to play something more than the position on the field defensively, if he were to add 1st base to his resume it helps him tremendously.

Juan Duran and anyone else currently residing below Low-A are so far off I don't really give them much consideration for top 5-10 despite their high ceilings. I mean if I were gonna do that it would be Yorman whom I would vote for at least he is more likely destined for a premium position w/ a big bat. Now if one of these guys does something phenomenal next season it may put them on the map but as of now they haven't done a thing worthy of discussion IMO.

And of course by now everyone knows how I feel about Francisco. So I'll just say I like his ceiling but his floor should be re-named AA. I hope I'm wrong about him but I would be shocked if he ever sets foot in the big leagues.

icehole3
10-22-2008, 06:35 AM
it came down to Drew Stubbs, Ramon Ramirez and Kyle Lotzkar, I chose Ramirez because I think he helps the Reds next year and Stubbs who Im one of his biggest fans is about 1 year away Im afraid. Ramirez when the year ended had a ton of confidence and is firmly in the Soto camp being groom as a big leaguer, I can see him battling it out with Owings with the loser being first guy on deck as the 5th starter. I wouldve like to have had Bailey on the prospects list because I would put him right after Ramirez actually.

lollipopcurve
10-22-2008, 06:51 AM
Chris Dickerson. I think a lot of what we saw from him was legit.

camisadelgolf
10-22-2008, 07:38 AM
I'm a big Drew Stubbs fan, but this one was easy for me: Juan Duran.

TRF
10-22-2008, 09:21 AM
I didn't notice Dickerson was on the list. I would have picked him if I had. I chose Valaika instead. All he does is hit, at every level.

TOBTTReds
10-22-2008, 10:15 AM
This one is tough for me, it come down to Drew Stubbs and Kyle Lotzkar. I've decided to go with Stubbs because I like the way he played better after getting out of the FSL, albeit a small sample size. He plays plus-plus defense at a premium position and has good on-base skills. Power development is the key for Stubbs - will he be a right handed version of Jacoby Ellsbury or will his power develop making him a Mike Cameron type player? Let's hope for the latter.

I think Lotzkar breaking his throwing elbow is really going to set him back...also because it happened from throwing the ball. It wasn't like a line drive back to him or anything. It is a "stuff" threatening injury.

BRM
10-22-2008, 10:17 AM
I gotta go with Andy Phillips here.

TOBTTReds
10-22-2008, 10:18 AM
Just for the record...I know a lot of us are unfamiliar with Yorman...but from everything I have heard from people in the know, is that he is much more advanced than Duran. Yorman will advance quicker through the system, but maybe not have the same ceiling. He has plus power with plus plus speed (so I hear). Profiles to be a plus defender in CF. Just throwing that out there.

lollipopcurve
10-22-2008, 10:24 AM
Just for the record...I know a lot of us are unfamiliar with Yorman...but from everything I have heard from people in the know, is that he is much more advanced than Duran. Yorman will advance quicker through the system, but maybe not have the same ceiling. He has plus power with plus plus speed (so I hear). Profiles to be a plus defender in CF. Just throwing that out there.

Very interesting. I, for one, am glad to hear this because I was not impressed by Duran's performance in the DSL this summer. I realize he is very young, but lots of those kids are teenagers. I realize he had some kind of elbow injury. That may have set him back. But he hit about .200 and had no HRs. For me -- while I still like the signing for a few reasons (not all related to how Duran turns out) -- it was pretty inauspicious. So it's a relief to hear from those who know more -- apparently -- that Rodriguez is ahead of Duran.

kheidg-
10-22-2008, 10:48 AM
I can't believe Darryl Thompson isn't running away with this.

Stubbs is a good choice. I would rank him higher than Frazier or Soto. But I voted Thompson who I also rank higher than Frazier or Soto.

kpresidente
10-22-2008, 11:45 AM
nm

GOYA
10-22-2008, 11:46 AM
Just for the record...I know a lot of us are unfamiliar with Yorman...but from everything I have heard from people in the know, is that he is much more advanced than Duran. Yorman will advance quicker through the system, but maybe not have the same ceiling. He has plus power with plus plus speed (so I hear). Profiles to be a plus defender in CF. Just throwing that out there.

The only thing I've read about Yorman's performance was that he had a lot of trouble with plate discipline/reading pitches. Everyone says the tools are there but he still needs work. What have you heard?

camisadelgolf
10-22-2008, 11:51 AM
I gotta go with Andy Phillips here.

wut :confused:

BRM
10-22-2008, 12:11 PM
wut :confused:

Just a jab at OBM. He always claims that I am Andy Phillips.

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 12:22 PM
I think Lotzkar breaking his throwing elbow is really going to set him back...also because it happened from throwing the ball. It wasn't like a line drive back to him or anything. It is a "stuff" threatening injury.

According to Lotzkar himself, the injury wasn't as bad as it seems. He said it would only keep him out six weeks so that right there tells you it wasn't *too* serious.

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 12:23 PM
Just a jab at OBM. He always claims that I am Andy Phillips.

:cool:

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 12:32 PM
Very interesting. I, for one, am glad to hear this because I was not impressed by Duran's performance in the DSL this summer. I realize he is very young, but lots of those kids are teenagers. I realize he had some kind of elbow injury. That may have set him back. But he hit about .200 and had no HRs. For me -- while I still like the signing for a few reasons (not all related to how Duran turns out) -- it was pretty inauspicious. So it's a relief to hear from those who know more -- apparently -- that Rodriguez is ahead of Duran.

Eh, I don't put a whole lot of weight into those stats yet. He's only 16 years old so he's still learning and growing. He may have only hit .215 but he did put up a respectable .340 OBP which showed he's got some pitch recognition. I don't expect him to hit for much power in his first couple seasons until he fills out that beanpole body of his. If he's still struggling in three years then I'll worry, for right now I'm not too worried about the stats. I just hope they bring him over to the States next season - get him used to being away from home for the first time and let him hit the weights.

camisadelgolf
10-22-2008, 12:55 PM
Another related noted to Duran is that every DSL player knew who he was, thanks to his huge contract and reputation, which probably resulted in a lot of pitchers not giving him anything to hit.

Bumstead
10-22-2008, 01:30 PM
Shouldn't Homer Bailey at least be listed with that group of players? He isn't the #4 prospect but he is certainly ahead of some of those guys. He's still young and has time to put it all together. I voted for Stubbs.

Dickerson, while I would like to see him with the Reds next year, at some point players become too old to be considered prospects. 27/28 is probably that age. Having said that, I wouldn't be upset if he was the starting CF for the Reds next year while we wait 3 months to a year on Stubbs.

Thanks for putting this together OBM. It is interesting to see what us fans think versus what the 'experts' think.

Bumstead

dougdirt
10-22-2008, 01:32 PM
Shouldn't Homer Bailey at least be listed with that group of players? He isn't the #4 prospect but he is certainly ahead of some of those guys. He's still young and has time to put it all together. I voted for Stubbs.

Dickerson, while I would like to see him with the Reds next year, at some point players become too old to be considered prospects. 27/28 is probably that age. Having said that, I wouldn't be upset if he was the starting CF for the Reds next year while we wait 3 months to a year on Stubbs.

Thanks for putting this together OBM. It is interesting to see what us fans think versus what the 'experts' think.

Bumstead

Bailey isn't a prospect anymore because he is no longer ROY eligible.

Bumstead
10-22-2008, 01:42 PM
ahhh...Good Point! He pitched so bad I didn't know he had accumulated that many innings... :rolleyes:

TOBTTReds
10-22-2008, 01:52 PM
I just hope they bring him over to the States next season - get him used to being away from home for the first time and let him hit the weights.

He was in FLA for a solid 4 months throughout the year between extended and Fall Instructional league. I'm sure it will be the same routine next year, but maybe he will stay for GCL instead. Also...he has added some weight I believe. Between the DR facility and Sarasota, I'm sure he was in the weight room quite a bit.

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 01:57 PM
Below is a recent picture of Juan Duran...he's still got a lot of room to fill out.

http://i.pbase.com/g1/23/755623/2/104359090.vnkpabwC.jpg

TOBTTReds
10-22-2008, 02:03 PM
he's still got a lot of room to fill out.

http://i.pbase.com/g1/23/755623/2/104359090.vnkpabwC.jpg

Can't see the pic (red x in box), but I hope a 17 year old would still have more room to fill out. Physically peaking at 17 would be a shame, though I know hundreds of us on here probably did!

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 02:07 PM
I'm still not sure where I'm going to vote for Duran. I was tempted to vote him in the top three or four based solely on his scouting report. I don't think I've ever seen a scouting report like his. They said he was hitting 400 foot bombs to all parts of the field over the trees at the Reds Dominican complex. Some were saying he's the best Dominican hitter they've ever crossed paths with. He's drawn comparisons to players like Vladimir Guerrero and Dave Winfield. I remember Volquez saying he saw Duran play and he'd never seen someone like that. I'm still blown away when I go back and read that.

I'm definitely putting him in my top 10 but I'm not sure where.

Orenda
10-22-2008, 02:37 PM
You can always recognize when Juan Duran is around by the sight of his big blue ox.

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 02:55 PM
You can always recognize when Juan Duran is around by the sight of his big blue ox.

:bowrofl:

Someone should photoshop Juan Duran into this picture:

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/6920/paulbunyunsl8.jpg

Spring~Fields
10-22-2008, 04:15 PM
What happened to Thompson that he is not getting better consideration, was his injury last year that substantial, won't he continue to build and improve upon his performances last year in Chattanooga and other?

Am I wrong that the Thompson that was pitching in Chattanooga would send your top three picks so far back to the bench frequently if that Thompson was pitching against them?

dougdirt
10-22-2008, 04:29 PM
What happened to Thompson that he is not getting better consideration, was his injury last year that substantial, won't he continue to build and improve upon his performances last year in Chattanooga and other?

Am I wrong that the Thompson that was pitching in Chattanooga would send your top three picks so far back to the bench frequently if that Thompson was pitching against them?

The injury is a concern for starters, given his size and history I see him making a move to the bullpen sooner rather than later.

Spring~Fields
10-22-2008, 04:49 PM
The injury is a concern for starters, given his size and history I see him making a move to the bullpen sooner rather than later.

I see, thanks Doug.

Thompson was such a positive story last year that I was hoping that things would work out for the young man.

OnBaseMachine
10-22-2008, 04:52 PM
I see, thanks Doug.

Thompson was such a positive story last year that I was hoping that things would work out for the young man.

He's got the stuff to be a solid big league starter (#3 or 4 starter) but like Doug said, I think he could make a great setup man. His fastball would probably jump a tick or two and it would keep a heavy workload off his arm. But I also think he could be a solid starter. He reminds me a bit of a harder throwing Arroyo with his big, slow curveball and decent changeup.

camisadelgolf
10-23-2008, 12:45 AM
What happened to Thompson that he is not getting better consideration, was his injury last year that substantial, won't he continue to build and improve upon his performances last year in Chattanooga and other?

Am I wrong that the Thompson that was pitching in Chattanooga would send your top three picks so far back to the bench frequently if that Thompson was pitching against them?

The injuries certainly hurt him, and I think people latch on to his poor performance while with the Reds. If Danny Ray Herrera weren't called up, a lot of people on the board would seriously be considering him as a top-ten prospect.

kpresidente
10-23-2008, 05:02 AM
He's got the stuff to be a solid big league starter (#3 or 4 starter) but like Doug said, I think he could make a great setup man. His fastball would probably jump a tick or two and it would keep a heavy workload off his arm. But I also think he could be a solid starter. He reminds me a bit of a harder throwing Arroyo with his big, slow curveball and decent changeup.

I would think a 3rd or 4th starter has a lot more value than a setup man. If he really is destined for the bullpen, I think the Reds need to move him while he's still starting.

kpresidente
10-23-2008, 05:48 AM
The injuries certainly hurt him, and I think people latch on to his poor performance while with the Reds. If Danny Ray Herrera weren't called up, a lot of people on the board would seriously be considering him as a top-ten prospect.

If true, than people are making a mistake. His walk rate in that stint makes me think a lot of his problem was nerves. The Reds need to stop rushing their young pitchers in general. Thompson should never have been brought up and neither should Bailey. Pitching is too mentally taxing to mess around with 21/22 year old kids. Wait till they're ready. If I were running the team, I'd make a full year at AAA almost a minimum requirement for starting pitchers.

OnBaseMachine
10-23-2008, 12:36 PM
If true, than people are making a mistake. His walk rate in that stint makes me think a lot of his problem was nerves. The Reds need to stop rushing their young pitchers in general. Thompson should never have been brought up and neither should Bailey. Pitching is too mentally taxing to mess around with 21/22 year old kids. Wait till they're ready. If I were running the team, I'd make a full year at AAA almost a minimum requirement for starting pitchers.

Nice post. I agree 100% with it.

TRF
10-23-2008, 01:17 PM
Nice post. I agree 100% with it.

I don't while true for Bailey, Cueto seemed to do ok. He had the normal ups and downs of a rookie pitcher.

I think the Reds need a better understanding of both the talent and mentality/maturity of the players in the minors. Some guys can blast through a system. Some can't. Cueto didn't NEED a full year at AAA. It might have helped him, and it might not.

LeCure spent two seasons at AA. Does he NEED a full year at AAA? maybe. He's a bit older, 24 right now so Maybe he doesn't need that full year. I bet he makes his big league debut next season at some point.

Really, it's case by case.

OnBaseMachine
10-23-2008, 01:33 PM
I don't while true for Bailey, Cueto seemed to do ok. He had the normal ups and downs of a rookie pitcher.

I think the Reds need a better understanding of both the talent and mentality/maturity of the players in the minors. Some guys can blast through a system. Some can't. Cueto didn't NEED a full year at AAA. It might have helped him, and it might not.

LeCure spent two seasons at AA. Does he NEED a full year at AAA? maybe. He's a bit older, 24 right now so Maybe he doesn't need that full year. I bet he makes his big league debut next season at some point.

Really, it's case by case.

Good point. In a perfect world, Cueto would have received more time in AA/AAA. He's thrown a total of 83 innings above High-A. He was able to survive due to good control and having three great pitches he can throw for strikes. Plus, he dominated at just about every level in the minors. That's what sets him and Homer apart. While Homer has the great stuff, he wasn't dominating AAA hitters yet. He was working on some things like new pitches, different mechanics, and so forth... he clearly wasn't ready for the majors IMO. Calling him up when they did was just asking for a disaster. Same with Daryl Thompson. He had very little experience above High-A when they chose to call him up. His stats were good, but I can remember Hal McCoy saying he talked to some scouts who said Thompson wasn't ready to pitch in the majors.

I was very impressed with what Cueto did this year. But I wouldn't recommend doing that with every kid pitcher. I'm hoping they're patient with Homer and Thompson next season and let them develop on their own timeline.

kpresidente
10-23-2008, 03:19 PM
Cueto dominated in the spring and sort of forced his way into the rotation. Then he had a fantastic first start. That's a lot of built up confidence to fall back on when you start to struggle. You're less likely to wonder whether you can cut it in the big leagues after a bad start when you open the season dominating people.

Of course that's all speculation. I don't have a clue what was going through his mind this season. Still, I wouldn't use his development as my model.

SMcGavin
10-23-2008, 03:25 PM
Cueto's a freak. I thought the way the Reds handled him was pretty reckless, but he's so good that it didn't matter. I hope the Reds appropriately view him as the exception and not the rule.

OnBaseMachine
10-23-2008, 07:41 PM
There's about an hour and 20 minutes or so left of voting. I'm looking forward to seeing how the voting plays out in the next poll. Right now it's looking like it'll come down to Duran, Lotzkar, Valaika, Thompson, or Dorn. Francisco may sneak in there too. It really depends on how the people who voted for Stubbs will vote on the next poll. So far we're averaging 130 votes per poll so hopefully we can keep that up. I'd really like to do at least a top 30.

Kc61
10-23-2008, 08:40 PM
There's about an hour and 20 minutes or so left of voting. I'm looking forward to seeing how the voting plays out in the next poll. Right now it's looking like it'll come down to Duran, Lotzkar, Valaika, Thompson, or Dorn. Francisco may sneak in there too. It really depends on how the people who voted for Stubbs will vote on the next poll. So far we're averaging 130 votes per poll so hopefully we can keep that up. I'd really like to do at least a top 30.


OBM, you might try to list the next group alphabetically by last name.

OnBaseMachine
10-23-2008, 08:47 PM
OBM, you might try to list the next group alphabetically by last name.

10-4. The next poll should be open within the next 10 minutes or so.