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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #5 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
10-23-2008, 09:57 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs

dougdirt
10-23-2008, 10:05 PM
Easily Chris Valaika for me. He can just flat out hit.

mth123
10-23-2008, 10:10 PM
I'm going with Lotzkar. After the top 3, a case can be made for the next 15 or so in about any order. I took Stubbs at 4 since he probably has the most trade value. Lotzkar as the only TOR starter candidate in this poll probably also has pretty good value so he's next for me.

dougdirt
10-23-2008, 10:24 PM
I'm going with Lotzkar. After the top 3, a case can be made for the next 15 or so in about any order. I took Stubbs at 4 since he probably has the most trade value. Lotzkar as the only TOR starter candidate in this poll probably also has pretty good value so he's next for me.

Maybe I am crazy, but prospects #4-#18 are nowhere near interchangeable.

OnBaseMachine
10-23-2008, 10:26 PM
I'm gonna go with Kyle Lotzkar at #5. He was doing some special things in the Midwest League as an 18 year old before going down with an injury. He had a 3.58 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 37.2 innings, an amazing 12.10 K/9. He was especially dominant in his last six starts (21.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 9 BB/26 K). He's got a great pitchers frame at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds. His fastball can already tough 95 and has room to improve as his frame fills out. He also throws a curveball and changeup. All three pitches project as plus pitches. He's got true ace potential IMO.

mth123
10-23-2008, 10:26 PM
Maybe I am crazy, but prospects #4-#18 are nowhere near interchangeable.

I've got Hanigan at 18. He's going to be the Reds catcher. I could argue number 4 may never reach that level.

dougdirt
10-23-2008, 10:37 PM
I've got Hanigan at 18. He's going to be the Reds catcher. I could argue number 4 may never reach that level.

I have Hanigan at 20, but he isn't nearly the prospect that Stubbs/Valaika are.

kheidg-
10-23-2008, 10:53 PM
Gotta be Daryl Thompson here. No way I'm taking Lotzkar over him -- injuries or not.

Lockdwn11
10-23-2008, 10:59 PM
After a great deal of debate I'm going Valaika I went Lotzkar at #4 and I should have voted for Valaika I just can't ignore the fact that this Kid has hit at every place he has gone and still playing SS. I will be putting Lotzkar at #6 on my list

TOBTTReds
10-23-2008, 11:06 PM
Yorman....pretty close to a no brainer for me.

Kc61
10-23-2008, 11:20 PM
Francisco fifth. Big time production in tough High A league for a young guy.

Valaika probably a steadier hitter, but Francisco has the big power upside and great arm.

Lotzkar, Duran, and Mesoraco are fine prospects too, just hard to judge based on current track record. Lotzkar succeeded at Dayton, but only 37 innings.

Roenicke hasn't had many votes so far, but will be throwing flames for the Reds sometime next year. Had good year at AAA. Still a top ten prospect.

And remember, at mid-season Thompson was number one on many charts.

Francisco here, Valaika next on my list.

Betterread
10-23-2008, 11:38 PM
I feel like I have to put one of Dominican bonus babies in the top 5 - so its Duran for me. Having voted that way, Valaika earned his credits this year. I feel very sure he will be a ML regular. I just worry that he'll be a utility guy because he won't stay at SS.

Betterread
10-23-2008, 11:45 PM
I'm gonna go with Kyle Lotzkar at #5. He was doing some special things in the Midwest League as an 18 year old before going down with an injury. He had a 3.58 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 37.2 innings, an amazing 12.10 K/9. He was especially dominant in his last six starts (21.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, 9 BB/26 K). He's got a great pitchers frame at 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds. His fastball can already tough 95 and has room to improve as his frame fills out. He also throws a curveball and changeup. All three pitches project as plus pitches. He's got true ace potential IMO.
I love Lotzkar's arm and pitches and his age - 18. He has everything to learn about pitching. Next year, the key for me will be that he logs 100-125 innings at low A. I don't even care about the performance (so long as his ERA is under 5.00). His health, quality repetitions and development are the focus.

SMcGavin
10-24-2008, 12:06 AM
Still Lotzkar for me.

FWIW, I've posted it before, but Valaika's numbers the past two seasons:
A: .307/.353/.493 (.846 OPS)
A+: .295/.341/.429 (.770 OPS)
AA: .301/.352/.443 (.795 OPS)

Don't get me wrong, he's a decent prospect if he sticks in the middle infield, but I'm not sure how he gets the "all he does is hit" label. The OBP concerns me.

dougdirt
10-24-2008, 12:43 AM
Still Lotzkar for me.

FWIW, I've posted it before, but Valaika's numbers the past two seasons:
A: .307/.353/.493 (.846 OPS)
A+: .295/.341/.429 (.770 OPS)
AA: .301/.352/.443 (.795 OPS)

Don't get me wrong, he's a decent prospect if he sticks in the middle infield, but I'm not sure how he gets the "all he does is hit" label. The OBP concerns me.

Outside of a 2 month stretch in Sarasota in 2007, the guy has tore up the ball in the minor leagues.

REDblooded
10-24-2008, 01:01 AM
I could make a solid argument for 5 players right here, but on upside at a premium position, I'll take Lotzkar.

Mario-Rijo
10-24-2008, 01:35 AM
Again I would love to take Lotzkar here, if healthy he arguably could have been top 3. I know he doesn't see his arm injury as anything too big, more or less a fluke too him, but what else should he think? I saw Tom Browning's arm snap and at that very moment his career was over. Chris Reitsma's arm has broke twice and he is still hanging around but as a reliever, not that he was ever considered anything else but could he have started if he had been a starter? I say that break makes me very nervous for his future, that doesn't mean I have changed my appreciation for his talent but it's a chink in the armor for me.

Also I will say seeing a recent quote by Callis or one of those guys (OBM I think you posted it) about Valaika and his so-so overall package did concern me a bit and if it weren't for Dickerson's age I would have changed my thought process. I also would have re-considered my previous vote knowing this info. But I still see Valaika as the best of this bunch that's up for nomination, because his bat will play solid in MLB and he's not far away. I think he plays most of the season in AAA with an almost definite call up in September and a legit guy to make the team out of S/T in '10.

Again guys who could be the top 5 and why I didn't vote for them.

Thompson - Concerns about arm, but love everything else about sans maybe some small command issues that could have just been nerves (throwing his fastball up in the zone alot).

Lotzkar - Arm concerns and distance from MLB (and he still has to go through the injury nexus).

Dickerson - Just his age and the fact that although he looks great he still has to prove he can make an adjustment once the opposition figures him out. Normally that's the case for everyone but I had concerns about him going in so we'll see how that plays out.

Roenicke - Has a good ways to go with control/command IMO and we have seen many struggle to ever find "it".

*BaseClogger*
10-24-2008, 01:39 AM
Outside of a 2 month stretch in Sarasota in 2007, the guy has tore up the ball in the minor leagues.

A career 824 OPS? If he was a good fielder he would be a B+ prospect, but when I hear he is only adequate defensively, and doesn't really have one great skill otherwise, I can't say he is much more than a B- prospect...

Mario-Rijo
10-24-2008, 01:44 AM
A career 824 OPS? If he was a good fielder he would be a B+ prospect, but when I hear he is only adequate defensively, and doesn't really have one great skill otherwise, I can't say he is much more than a B- prospect...

Well he does have one great skill, he can hit. That said he has dropped a smidge for me with this recent news.

*BaseClogger*
10-24-2008, 01:46 AM
Well he does have one great skill, he can hit. That said he has dropped a smidge for me with this recent news.

Specifically, what does he do well hitting?

AmarilloRed
10-24-2008, 01:52 AM
I have to go with Ramon Ramirez. His ERA and WHIP improved at every level between AA and MLB this year.

AA:1.22 WHIP, 4.70 ERA
AAA: 1.19 WHIP, 3.08 ERA
MLB: 1.037 WHIP, 2.67 ERA

His future may only be as a back of the rotation starter or long reliever, but I believe he will be a major league starting pitcher. He gets my vote.

Mario-Rijo
10-24-2008, 02:02 AM
Specifically, what does he do well hitting?

Well let me put it like this. He's a rich man's Jeff Keppinger at the plate with a better swing and more pop. He's likely a doubles machine at the pro level with 15-20 Hr's. If his discipline continues to improve (and I truly believe it will) I see him as a .300/.350+/.450 type because his power hasn't even kicked in yet he's still only 22. From 2B that's pretty darn good and even better from SS but I don't see that. His range at SS is an issue mostly due to his arm not being stellar but just solid. If he works hard at learning where to be position wise once he hits MLB he'll be a more than adequate 2B.

Mario-Rijo
10-24-2008, 02:08 AM
Well let me put it like this. He's a rich man's Jeff Keppinger at the plate with a better swing and more pop. He's likely a doubles machine at the pro level with 15-20 Hr's. If his discipline continues to improve (and I truly believe it will) I see him as a .300/.350+/.450 type because his power hasn't even kicked in yet he's still only 22. From 2B that's pretty darn good and even better from SS but I don't see that. His range at SS is an issue mostly due to his arm not being stellar but just solid. If he works hard at learning where to be position wise once he hits MLB he'll be a more than adequate 2B.

Or if you prefer he's an excellent contact hitter who won't be relying solely on singles.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 02:09 AM
Should Ryan Hanigan be included on these polls sometime down the road when we reach the 15-20 range? He hasn't lost his ROY eligibility yet (cut off is 130 atbats, he's got 95) but he's 28 years old. It's up to you guys. At his age, do you still consider him a prospect?

AmarilloRed
10-24-2008, 02:15 AM
Should Ryan Hanigan be included on these polls sometime down the road when we reach the 15-20 range? He hasn't lost his ROY eligibility yet (cut off is 130 atbats, he's got 95) but he's 28 years old. It's up to you guys. At his age, do you still consider him a prospect?

I still consider him a prospect. I think if you are still eligible for ROY, you should be considered a prospect. Some players take longer than others to reach the major leagues.

Mario-Rijo
10-24-2008, 02:17 AM
I still consider him a prospect. I think if you are still eligible for ROY, you should be considered a prospect. Some players take longer than others to reach the major leagues.

True Soto won ROY at what 67? So yeah I think we should include him.

dougdirt
10-24-2008, 02:27 AM
A career 824 OPS? If he was a good fielder he would be a B+ prospect, but when I hear he is only adequate defensively, and doesn't really have one great skill otherwise, I can't say he is much more than a B- prospect...

Give me that from a 2B anytime. Valaika might be out of position at SS some, but he can handle 2B just fine and he can hit plenty well for a 2B.

Screwball
10-24-2008, 06:04 AM
Should Ryan Hanigan be included on these polls sometime down the road when we reach the 15-20 range? He hasn't lost his ROY eligibility yet (cut off is 130 atbats, he's got 95) but he's 28 years old. It's up to you guys. At his age, do you still consider him a prospect?

Absolutely. Not that I'll vote for him any time soon, but I think you should widen the horizons (so to speak) to include as many prospects as possible.

Also, this is a personal addendum, but maybe slow down the voting a bit? I mean, we have A LOT of offseason ahead of us. Let's let this prospect voting help to pass the time, but not necessarily right now. (JMHO, of course)

Oh, and BTW, Lotzkar is the obvious choice, IMO.

mth123
10-24-2008, 06:32 AM
Give me that from a 2B anytime. Valaika might be out of position at SS some, but he can handle 2B just fine and he can hit plenty well for a 2B.

I don't see Valaika as a guy who projects as well as other do. I think he'll be be a .725 to .775 OPS guy most of his career with a possible season or two where he tops .800 (probably with some BABIP help). Now that element of his game sounds fine "for a second basemen," but that really isn't the way that the standard should be applied. When the "for an up the middle player" qualifier is attached to a guy's offense, its usually a way of saying its ok to put his plus glove in the line-up (see Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey, Ryan Hanigan and Zach Cozart for an example of how to apply that standard). But if the guy's glove is a question mark, his offense needs to be the "plays anywhere" variety to be a top 10 guy (See Todd Frazier and Neftali Soto for examples of this).

If its questionable that the guy's glove will play up the middle, and his offense isn't good enough to qualify him at a corner, that sounds like a tweener to me who may be best projected as a supersub type. And, while I think Valaika may end up being a pretty good supersub, I can't project a tweener like that a lot higher on the list than I would guys who project as regular players, plus bats, near ready starters or back of the bullpen assets. I have Vailaika at number 16 and probably have him lower than just about anyone else does, but if his defense is in question and his offense being good enough depends on his defense being good enough then that sounds like a guy who is just a little short all around to me. Many are calling Valaika Jeff Kent, but I see Jeff Keppinger or maybe Ronnie Belliard (but Belliard is a better defender). I'm hoping for Mark Derosa, but again, DeRosa is a good defender at a number of spots.

icehole3
10-24-2008, 07:36 AM
I was absolutely torn between Ramirez and Lotzkar and I let OBM talk me into Lotzkar, those numbers are very very impressive. Ramirez moves to number 6 for me.

chicoruiz
10-24-2008, 08:48 AM
I voted for Roenicke. Despite his age, he's still a baby pitching-experience wise, and there's a lot of tread left on his tires, arm-wise. All he has to do to be completely lights-out is develop his secondary stuff, and I think it's highly likely that he'll do just that.

camisadelgolf
10-24-2008, 09:13 AM
Fourth time a charm? I went with (inarguably?) the highest ceiling in the organization, Juan Duran.

lollipopcurve
10-24-2008, 09:56 AM
Dickerson again

bucksfan2
10-24-2008, 10:02 AM
Dickerson again

Im kind of surprised that Dickerson isn't getting more votes. He came up to the bigs and held his own this last season. He should be the starting CF next year coming out of camp and has a game to get excited about. The key will be how he makes adjustments but in reality voting a young pitcher off major arm surgery ahead of Dickerson is something I can't do.

BRM
10-24-2008, 10:10 AM
I went with Lotzkar. Although Doug does make a very compelling argument for Valaika here.

SMcGavin
10-24-2008, 10:39 AM
I'll admit, I have absolutely no idea how to rank Duran and Rodriguez. It is also hard for me to compare Dickerson and Hanigan to some of the younger prospects. When I initially made my prospects list, those four guys weren't included, so I will have to do some switching around.

And OBM, I'd like to request that Matt Maloney be added to future polls. He was rated #7 on this list last season and just completed a AAA season with 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Once Lotzkar is gone I'll be voting for him.

*BaseClogger*
10-24-2008, 10:44 AM
I don't see Valaika as a guy who projects as well as other do. I think he'll be be a .725 to .775 OPS guy most of his career with a possible season or two where he tops .800 (probably with some BABIP help). Now that element of his game sounds fine "for a second basemen," but that really isn't the way that the standard should be applied. When the "for an up the middle player" qualifier is attached to a guy's offense, its usually a way of saying its ok to put his plus glove in the line-up (see Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey, Ryan Hanigan and Zach Cozart for an example of how to apply that standard). But if the guy's glove is a question mark, his offense needs to be the "plays anywhere" variety to be a top 10 guy (See Todd Frazier and Neftali Soto for examples of this).

If its questionable that the guy's glove will play up the middle, and his offense isn't good enough to qualify him at a corner, that sounds like a tweener to me who may be best projected as a supersub type. And, while I think Valaika may end up being a pretty good supersub, I can't project a tweener like that a lot higher on the list than I would guys who project as regular players, plus bats, near ready starters or back of the bullpen assets. I have Vailaika at number 16 and probably have him lower than just about anyone else does, but if his defense is in question and his offense being good enough depends on his defense being good enough then that sounds like a guy who is just a little short all around to me. Many are calling Valaika Jeff Kent, but I see Jeff Keppinger or maybe Ronnie Belliard (but Belliard is a better defender). I'm hoping for Mark Derosa, but again, DeRosa is a good defender at a number of spots.

That sounds about right, perhaps a little low IMO...

kheidg-
10-24-2008, 10:45 AM
Can anyone tell me how Lotzkar projects higher than Daryl Thompson at this point? Injuries aside...

Kc61
10-24-2008, 12:08 PM
Can anyone tell me how Lotzkar projects higher than Daryl Thompson at this point? Injuries aside...


Interesting question. You can't exclude injuries, of course, Thompson has had a number of them but now Lotzkar has had one as well.

The whole process of ranking prospects is fun but flawed. Players like Soto and Lotzkar benefit to some extent because they haven't had time for many bad trends to show up on their stats record. So we go with their potential and fast start.

Thompson, on the other hand, pitched five shutout innings against the Yankees at the Stadium. And looked good doing it. He then showed himself to be not ready, but still he's a young pitcher to have come so far. Will Lotzkar progress as well?

I think the good Reds prospects are fairly closely bunched. How to compare a 16 year old hitter with a polished 24 year old pitcher has always been a mystery to me. So you can't put too much emphasis on these rankings.

Whether you rank Lotzkar or Thompson higher is just in the eyes of the beholder.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 12:09 PM
Can anyone tell me how Lotzkar projects higher than Daryl Thompson at this point? Injuries aside...

Thompson's stuff projects as a middle-of-rotation starter. He reminds me somewhat of a Bronson Arroyo type with more velocity on his fastball. Like Arroyo, he's got a big slow curveball and a decent changeup. Lotzkar, OTOH, has ace caliber stuff. Lotzkar just turned 19 years old today (Happy B-Day!) and can already run his fastball up to 95 with projection to add more velocity. He also throws a good curveball and changeup. All three pitches project as plus pitches. Thompson is a good pitching prospect and is closer to the majors obviously, but Lotzkar has a higher ceiling. I'd put him in the Homer Bailey/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez class of pitching prospects.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 12:16 PM
Also, this is a personal addendum, but maybe slow down the voting a bit? I mean, we have A LOT of offseason ahead of us. Let's let this prospect voting help to pass the time, but not necessarily right now. (JMHO, of course)


I've thought about adding a third day for voting but I've held off for now. It seems like the voting always slows down on the last day. How about this? I'll keep the next poll open for three days instead of two. If the voting increases by a decent margin then I'll continue to keep them open for three days. Is that fine with everyone?

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 12:27 PM
And OBM, I'd like to request that Matt Maloney be added to future polls. He was rated #7 on this list last season and just completed a AAA season with 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Once Lotzkar is gone I'll be voting for him.

I'll be sure to add Maloney on the next poll.

lollipopcurve
10-24-2008, 12:28 PM
He came up to the bigs and held his own this last season.

.304/.413/.608 in 120 PAs -- plus speed and decent defense

if that's "holding your own," what's doing well?

I was never a big Dickerson fan as he rose through the minors, but I saw enough really good ABs from him while he was up to become a believer -- the guy is going to have a solid big league career, maybe a good one -- whether he's a 600AB guy or a 300AB guy, I don't know, but he's going to have a job for many years, I think, assuming he stays healthy

Kc61
10-24-2008, 12:35 PM
I'll be sure to add Maloney on the next poll.


While you are adding, I think Justin Turner is going to be a very good major leaguer. I'd like to see him added soon. Thanks.

TRF
10-24-2008, 12:39 PM
I picked Valaika in the last round, but I would have picked Dickerson had i looked harder. He's done it at a higher level, and has been more than solid at every minor league level. Plus his 1st 31 games were better than Jay Bruce's first 31. Also he may be the best defender on this list.

osuceltic
10-24-2008, 12:42 PM
This is neither here nor there, but I had to post it. I just found out Drew Stubbs is white. With all the toolsy, speedy talk, along with the fact that Drew Stubbs just sounds like a black guy's name, I assumed he was black. This comes on the heels of the September revelation that Chris Dickerson is black. It's like my whole world has been turned upside down.

Carry on.

bucksfan2
10-24-2008, 12:55 PM
.304/.413/.608 in 120 PAs -- plus speed and decent defense

if that's "holding your own," what's doing well?

I was never a big Dickerson fan as he rose through the minors, but I saw enough really good ABs from him while he was up to become a believer -- the guy is going to have a solid big league career, maybe a good one -- whether he's a 600AB guy or a 300AB guy, I don't know, but he's going to have a job for many years, I think, assuming he stays healthy

I was very impressed with his ABs and also his bat speed. Unfortunately for Dickerson he was injured so we really didn't get to see how he made adjustments when the league adjusted for him.

He held his own because he didn't fall flat on his face. He exceeded what everyone expect out of him. IMO he should be the starting CF going into next season and play CF or LF (when Stubbs is in CF) everyday for the entire season. I don't want him benched or sent to the minors because he struggles from time to time. I think right now he is a more valuable player than Jr. and with an OF of Stubbs, Dickerson, and Bruce you will see a great defensive outfield.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 12:58 PM
This is neither here nor there, but I had to post it. I just found out Drew Stubbs is white. With all the toolsy, speedy talk, along with the fact that Drew Stubbs just sounds like a black guy's name, I assumed he was black. This comes on the heels of the September revelation that Chris Dickerson is black. It's like my whole world has been turned upside down.

Carry on.

What would you say if I told you Chris Valaika was from the Dominican Republic and resembles Vladimir Guerrero in the face?

Scrap Irony
10-24-2008, 01:44 PM
I picked Valaika and I know I like him more than most. The primary reason Valaika is most attractive as a prospect is a combination of talent, success, and position scarcity. If Valaika has an average glove, he's going to be near All-Star level.

Valaika's bat is good now and projects to get better. He's a strong kid and my guess is that he will be assisted most by the short porches and jet streams in the Queen City more than any other prospect. Not only that, Valaika is a natural #2 hitter, especially in terms of Dusty-Ball (i.e., middle infielder, refuses to beat himself, decent speed, decent bat handler). This should mean more fastballs (which he has plus batspeed for) while hitting in front of Votto, Bruce, and that erstwhile RH LF bopper.

He's also only 23 and should develop more power as he progresses along the way. Since he hits for a high average now, this should mean much more power, at least over the next five to eight years.

Oh, and did I mention the fact that there's a pretty wide-open position in Cincinnati right now at SS? Both the manager and the GM are more than willing to take a chance on an offensive-minded player, as seen with previous choices. Or was David Eckstein really a great glove?

Too, AGon can't stay healthy, Keppinger was exposed as a platoon partner only, and Janish's bat is too light for full-time duty. The only other option is one-year wonder Jerry Hairston. And, if you're going to trust Hairston's glove at short, Valaika's is going to look Ozzie.

fearofpopvol1
10-24-2008, 02:36 PM
Thompson

My reasons were cited in the last thread.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 03:05 PM
What would you say if I told you Chris Valaika was from the Dominican Republic and resembles Vladimir Guerrero in the face?

Just kidding of course. Valaika is as white as can be. I don't want anyone to think I'm an idiot or anything (if they don't already).:D

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 03:34 PM
This poll has been more diverse. Every prospect listed has at least one vote except for Carlos Fisher. Half of the prospects listed have received at least five votes. We're at 89 votes so far, hopefully we can get up in the 130 area before the poll closes.

BRM
10-24-2008, 03:37 PM
I don't want anyone to think I'm an idiot or anything (if they don't already).:D

Too late.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 03:38 PM
Too late.

:mooner:

BRM
10-24-2008, 03:41 PM
:mooner:

Put that away. This is a family board.

camisadelgolf
10-24-2008, 04:41 PM
Yorman....pretty close to a no brainer for me.

What about Juan Duran?

camisadelgolf
10-24-2008, 04:43 PM
This poll has been more diverse. Every prospect listed has at least one vote except for Carlos Fisher. Half of the prospects listed have received at least five votes. We're at 89 votes so far, hopefully we can get up in the 130 area before the poll closes.

Should we do it like before? If a player doesn't receive X% of the votes, then there is a new vote with the top vote-getters. I think 40% would be appropriate.

bucksfan2
10-24-2008, 04:48 PM
Should we do it like before? If a player doesn't receive X% of the votes, then there is a new vote with the top vote-getters. I think 40% would be appropriate.

Runoff vote?

camisadelgolf
10-24-2008, 05:04 PM
Runoff vote?

Yeah, exactly. I tried to think of the term, but I kept drawing a blank.

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 06:18 PM
We'll see how close this thing is when it ends tomorrow night at 9:00 PM. If it's still fairly close then we can do a runoff vote.

TOBTTReds
10-24-2008, 06:51 PM
What about Juan Duran?

I've seen Duran play...though I haven't seen Yorman.

Duran is years away from impact, at the plate, and in the field. Yorman (from what I've heard from people in the know) will be playing a great CF within a year, with plus plus speed. Pure athletes like that have a chance of catching on quickly. Not that Duran isn't an athlete, but he is just a monster that is still catching up to his growing. I'm combining ceiling and ETA here, and Yorman's ceiling is high, and his bat is probably ahead of Duran's already, and his fielding definitely is, esp. at a premium position.

Lockdwn11
10-24-2008, 06:54 PM
This poll has been more diverse. Every prospect listed has at least one vote except for Carlos Fisher. Half of the prospects listed have received at least five votes. We're at 89 votes so far, hopefully we can get up in the 130 area before the poll closes.

I was a little suprised to see a vote for Cozart this early. I know I have seen on this board comments about his defense being MLB ready but I ran across some scouting reports that said he had nice hands but below avg. range and below avg. speed so I was wondering wow can this be? How can his defense be that good if he doesn't have the range and is slow footed?

TOBTTReds
10-24-2008, 07:00 PM
I was a little suprised to see a vote for Cozart this early. I know I have seen on this board comments about his defense being MLB ready but I ran acrossed some scouting reports that said he had nice hands but below avg. range and below avg. speed so I was wondering wow can this be? How can his defense be that good if he doesn't have the range and is slow footed?

I believe his range is actually pretty good. Better than Janish with better footwork (Jani is a bit of a spaz sometimes on balls to his left), but not his arm, though it is still good. JMO

OnBaseMachine
10-24-2008, 07:07 PM
I was a little suprised to see a vote for Cozart this early. I know I have seen on this board comments about his defense being MLB ready but I ran acrossed some scouting reports that said he had nice hands but below avg. range and below avg. speed so I was wondering wow can this be? How can his defense be that good if he doesn't have the range and is slow footed?

I remember reading those scouting reports too. I can't remember where they came from but they're wrong. The scouts and others on this board who've seen him play say he's got great range at shortstop. Here are some tidbits on him from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus:

From BP:

Zach Cozart, SS, Low-A Dayton (Reds)
A second-round pick last year, Cozart entered pro ball as an outstanding defensive shortstop with little offense to offer. The first part of that equation hasn't changed, but the offensive aspect of his game has taken a shocking turn. After hitting just two home runs over 184 at-bats in last year's pro debut, Cozart just slugged his 11th and 12th home runs of the season over the weekend, and is now hitting a shocking .269/.330/.470 in 70 games for the Dragons. The on-base skills are still lacking, but the power development is downright shocking, and all he needed was some kind of offensive upside to project as an everyday player in the big leagues, because the defense really is that good.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7834

From BA:

Best Defensive Player: SS Zach Cozart (17) makes most of the plays a solid big league shortstop would be expected to make, and dazzles at times. His arm is above-average, his range is excellent and his hands are very reliable.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/printer/p263207.html

Mississippi shortstop Zack Cozart (second round), the best defensive shortstop in the college game.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/features/264227.html

He's actually been compared defensively to Adam Everett, perhaps the best defensive SS in the game for a few years.

Mario-Rijo
10-24-2008, 07:11 PM
I remember reading those scouting reports too. I can't remember where they came from but they're wrong. The scouts and others on this board who've seen him play say he's got great range at shortstop. Here are some tidbits on him from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus:

From BP:

Zach Cozart, SS, Low-A Dayton (Reds)
A second-round pick last year, Cozart entered pro ball as an outstanding defensive shortstop with little offense to offer. The first part of that equation hasn't changed, but the offensive aspect of his game has taken a shocking turn. After hitting just two home runs over 184 at-bats in last year's pro debut, Cozart just slugged his 11th and 12th home runs of the season over the weekend, and is now hitting a shocking .269/.330/.470 in 70 games for the Dragons. The on-base skills are still lacking, but the power development is downright shocking, and all he needed was some kind of offensive upside to project as an everyday player in the big leagues, because the defense really is that good.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7834

From BA:

Best Defensive Player: SS Zach Cozart (17) makes most of the plays a solid big league shortstop would be expected to make, and dazzles at times. His arm is above-average, his range is excellent and his hands are very reliable.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/printer/p263207.html

Mississippi shortstop Zack Cozart (second round), the best defensive shortstop in the college game.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/features/264227.html

He's actually been compared defensively to Adam Everett, perhaps the best defensive SS in the game for a few years.

Excellent post OBM!

I believe that was MLB.com who had his range listed as a negative.

gedred69
10-24-2008, 10:13 PM
Dorn, Valaika. Valaika, Dorn. Either way they are the top 2 considering their closeness to being MLB ready..

Lockdwn11
10-25-2008, 01:46 AM
Excellent post OBM!

I believe that was MLB.com who had his range listed as a negative.

http://ww2.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/index.jsp?mc=cozart


Here is one of the reports I was talking about. It's kinda funny how two scouts can see the same player and come up with two different report. I have seen more good scoucting reports on Cozart then bad ones so I will go with the good ones for now untill I see him with my own eyes

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 01:50 AM
Whoever made that report didn't do their homework very well. Or caught him on a bad day because everyone else says he's got excellent range.

Lockdwn11
10-25-2008, 02:20 AM
I'm going to go with my son William P. Wilson JR. for my 101st prospect.

He is little known prospect right now but he is a sweet swinging lefty(Throws Right) with good plate discipline and good contact. He doesn't have much pop right now but it he is projected to hit five to ten homers before his Little league career is over. He's got good hand and they maybe his best tool. He's a MI/C with avg. range. 2nd maybe where his futures at if not catcher. He made his first ALL-STAR team at the age of 8 his ETA is 2021. Remember you heard it here first. LOL

http://C:\Users\Brenda Wilson\Pictures\Billy-Richwood.jpg

Lockdwn11
10-25-2008, 02:24 AM
nm

Lockdwn11
10-25-2008, 02:26 AM
Billy-Richwood.jpg (52.2 KB)

Here is a pic of the future Red

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 02:32 AM
Nice pic, lock. Kid has a nice swing. But I enjoyed the girl in the background better.;)

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 03:20 AM
It's looking like we may have to do a runoff vote. If so, I guess we'll choose between the top four vote getters (Valaika, Thompson, Lotzkar, Duran).

GOYA
10-25-2008, 03:25 AM
It really is tough to vote on these choices without set criteria to work with. For example, to choose between Dickerson and Yorman there is a huge disparity. Yorman's potential might be higher but Dickerson has doe well in the bigs already. Yorman's career might end before he ever gets close to the bigs. What are you guys looking at to make your choices?

kpresidente
10-25-2008, 08:31 AM
Valaika had a nice season, but it was driven by a .368 BABiP. I'm still suspicious.

mth123
10-25-2008, 09:42 AM
Valaika had a nice season, but it was driven by a .368 BABiP. I'm still suspicious.

Agree completely. He's going to be OB challenged IMO and a .425 to .450 or so slugging percentage won't make up for it. For him to be this high, he needs to be a plus defender up the middle somewhere. Instead he is a guy who we hope will stick up the middle so his bat will be a plus. I think he has a major league future, but IMO supersub is his likely role.

IMO the Reds tend to start their higher round college hitting prospects at levels that are too low for them. They look good (especially at Billings) but that may not be a real picture. I'm skeptical of Valaika because two seasons in a row when he gets to more appropriate competition in Hawaii and Arizona he's been quite ho hum. I admit the samples are small, and 2008 was encouraging, but I wonder if its an indication of how he'll do up the line at higher levels. Guy needs to take more walks.

2007 in Hawaii - 108 AB, 7 BB, 3 HR, .269/.319/.398/.717
2008 in the AFL - 49 AB, 2 BB, 2 HR, .286/.314/.449/.763

camisadelgolf
10-25-2008, 09:54 AM
To over-simplify it, Chris Valaika = Brandon Phillips with less speed and defense. Personally, I'll be sticking with Juan Duran (compared to Carlos Beltran and other high-performance superstars) until he's elected.

mth123
10-25-2008, 10:06 AM
To over-simplify it, Chris Valaika = Brandon Phillips with less speed and defense. Personally, I'll be sticking with Juan Duran (compared to Carlos Beltran and other high-performance superstars) until he's elected.

I was going to say the same thing, but Phillips hit 68 HR the last three seasons (51 the last two and 2008 was cut short). I don't see Valaika having that kind of power.

Betterread
10-25-2008, 12:23 PM
To over-simplify it, Chris Valaika = Brandon Phillips with less speed and defense. Personally, I'll be sticking with Juan Duran (compared to Carlos Beltran and other high-performance superstars) until he's elected.
Statisitically speaking, your comparison is logical.
Watching their approach to the game, your comparison is less tenable.
Phillips is a great athelete, who has gradually honed his baseball skills to be a solid ML 2B. He still makes his best plays when he reacts, instinctively (his fielding, his swing speed). He can have trouble when he is asked to analyze, modify and adjust (his approach at the plate, identifying and correcting swing flaws). I think he is still on the improvement curve, and if he can improve his ability to modify and adjust, you can dream about his unlimited potential.
Valaika does not have gifted athleticism and does not possess unlimited potential. He is successful because he works hard and works effectively on his swing. His swing and his approach at the plate are excellent for his age and minor league level. He still must improve to be a quality ML hitter, but given his consistent improvement, and his ability to work hard on the right things, I see him continuing to improve as a hitter and eventually make consistent, hard contact as a ML hitter. He is not working on plate discipline the same way at this point in his career. I think the priority with young hitters should be on developing a good swing technique that is efficient and suits each individual's body type. There are a lot of minor leaguers that earn a lot of walks in the minors, but will not be good ML hitters.

Mario-Rijo
10-25-2008, 12:53 PM
Billy-Richwood.jpg (52.2 KB)

Here is a pic of the future Red

Is that good 'ole Krivsky in the background already scouting him. Lord knows he leaves no stoned unturned. :D

kpresidente
10-25-2008, 03:20 PM
I was going to say the same thing, but Phillips hit 68 HR the last three seasons (51 the last two and 2008 was cut short). I don't see Valaika having that kind of power.

Valaika also has a big split, which means teams are going to want to push him into a platoon role. Once you get that tag, it's hard to get rid of it.

Phillips has a big split, too, but his power makes him a serious, middle-of-the order hitter against LH, and his defense is good enough that you want him out there against RH as well. Valaika's really neither of those things.

dougdirt
10-25-2008, 03:24 PM
I was going to say the same thing, but Phillips hit 68 HR the last three seasons (51 the last two and 2008 was cut short). I don't see Valaika having that kind of power.

Brandon Phillips hit .274/.332/.418 in the minors with 67 HR in 2755 AB's (HR every 41.11 AB's).

Chris Valaika has hit .306/.357/.467 in the minors with 38 HR in 1306 AB's (HR every 34.7 AB's).

So Valaika has shown the ability to hit for a higher average and has shown much better power in his minor league career. Of course, Phillips was younger at the levels he played at because he was drafted out of high school and Valaika was taken out of college.

Still, Valaika has shown some good power in the minors and while he may not have the HR numbers Phillips showed last year, 20-25 with 40 doubles isn't far fetched at all from a guy like Valaika.

dougdirt
10-25-2008, 03:27 PM
Valaika also has a big split, which means teams are going to want to push him into a platoon role. Once you get that tag, it's hard to get rid of it.

Phillips has a big split, too, but his power makes him a serious, middle-of-the order hitter against LH, and his defense is good enough that you want him out there against RH as well. Valaika's really neither of those things.

Valaika has a career split against righties of .302/.354/.457 in the minors. He hits even better against lefties.

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 05:04 PM
So, how long should I leave the runoff poll open? Two days? It looks like it'll come down to Duran, Lotzkar, Thompson, and Valaika.

mth123
10-25-2008, 05:10 PM
So, how long should I leave the runoff poll open? Two days? It looks like it'll come down to Duran, Lotzkar, Thompson, and Valaika.

Run-off? Valaika looks like a clear winner even if I disagree.

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 05:13 PM
Run-off? Valaika looks like a clear winner even if I disagree.

I agree, but some folks were saying they would like a prospect to reach a certain % (40 I believe) of votes for them to win. It depends on what you guys think.

mth123
10-25-2008, 05:18 PM
I agree, but some folks were saying they would like a prospect to reach a certain % (40 I believe) of votes for them to win. It depends on what you guys think.

Valaika has more than double his nearest rival. I think these prospects in the 5 to 20 range are bunched so close, we may never get a 40% on anyone from here on out. I'm against a run-off unless the leader has less than a 5 vote lead on the second place guy. Things could get pretty repetitive because it will be the same guys we were just debating.

But its all fun, so whatever is still ok.

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 05:42 PM
Valaika has more than double his nearest rival. I think these prospects in the 5 to 20 range are bunched so close, we may never get a 40% on anyone from here on out. I'm against a run-off unless the leader has less than a 5 vote lead on the second place guy. Things could get pretty repetitive because it will be the same guys we were just debating.

But its all fun, so whatever is still ok.

That's a good point. Forget the run-off, I'll start the next poll immediately after this one ends in a little over four hours from now.

Kc61
10-25-2008, 05:42 PM
I agree, but some folks were saying they would like a prospect to reach a certain % (40 I believe) of votes for them to win. It depends on what you guys think.


When the leader has more than double the number two, I don't think a run-off is needed. I think the winner here is clear.

I would only do a run-off when the top two guys are within 5 or 6 votes of one another.

Just my view.

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 05:46 PM
Another question. The second poll we did fell on a weekend and we received about 15 less votes or so than normal. Since this next one will also fall on a weekend should we keep it open an extra day or go with the standard two days?

Kc61
10-25-2008, 05:51 PM
Another question. The second poll we did fell on a weekend and we received about 15 less votes or so than normal. Since this next one will also fall on a weekend should we keep it open an extra day or go with the standard two days?

I'm ready for the next poll.

OnBaseMachine
10-25-2008, 05:52 PM
How about this: Start a new poll on every Saturday night and keep it open for three days; Start the next poll on Tuesday night and run it through Thursday night; Start a new poll Thursday night and run it through Saturday night and keep it on that same schedule. That would be three polls a week and would allow an extra day for voting when traffic slows down on the weekends. It also milks the time and gives us something to do throughout the offseason. Is that fine by everyone?

icehole3
10-25-2008, 08:14 PM
sounds good, I look at these threads daily

kpresidente
10-25-2008, 09:38 PM
Valaika has a career split against righties of .302/.354/.457 in the minors. He hits even better against lefties.

Which would be ML equivalency of roughly .248/.290/.374 if he keeps it up. I hope he does hit better against lefties.

dougdirt
10-25-2008, 09:46 PM
Which would be ML equivalency of roughly .248/.290/.374 if he keeps it up. I hope he does hit better against lefties.

Major League equivalents don't matter much unless that guy is scheduled to play there right then, which he didn't. I find it hard to suggest someone has a major split when they are hitting .300 with an OPS over .800 against one type of pitching and the other one is even better.