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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
10-28-2008, 08:19 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar

OnBaseMachine
10-28-2008, 08:22 PM
I went ahead and left this poll open for two days. Do you guys prefer two days or three?

Mario-Rijo
10-28-2008, 08:23 PM
I went ahead and left this poll open for two days. Do you guys prefer two days or three?

2 days please the last one seemed to last an eternity and it seemed there wasn't much of a change in voting over the past 24 hours.

bubbachunk
10-28-2008, 08:25 PM
2 days

Voted Juan Duran

OnBaseMachine
10-28-2008, 08:28 PM
I decided to go with Daryl Thompson. He'll never be an ace or anything but he's got solid stuff and projects as a solid middle-of-rotation starter. I also think he could be a great setup man if the Reds choose to go that route.

fearofpopvol1
10-28-2008, 09:03 PM
3rd time is the charm with Thompson?

I just think the numbers he put up in AA were very impressive and his AAA numbers were very good as well. He did struggle some at the majors, but he didn't get that many starts. His debut at Yankee Stadium was incredible. He has the talent and stuff to a least be a MOR guy. He has proven more than all of the other prospects listed (though you could make a good argument for Dickerson as well).

mth123
10-28-2008, 09:35 PM
Going with Dickerson. Glove leaves no question, has on base skills, speed galore and developing power. Lefty bat who should be able to contribute enough on offense to keep his plus plus defense in the line-up. Even if he ends up a platoon guy, being a lefty should give him 400+ PA. I know he's older than the ideal prospect, but he seems a safe bet to be a contributer as opposed to many others on this list who may not make it at all. At worst case he's a solid bench guy with a lefty bat, the ability to pinch run and play plus defense at the end of the game.

WMR
10-28-2008, 09:40 PM
Duran again for the almost unbelievable potential he possesses.

Spring~Fields
10-28-2008, 10:13 PM
Daryl Thompson
Bats: Right, Throws: Right
Height: 6'1", Weight: 170 lbs
Born: November 2, 1985 Just 23 years old in Nov.



Louisville
Player W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR HB BB SO WHIP
Thompson 5 0 2.76 7 7 0 0 0 45.2 39 15 14 4 2 9 33 1.05
Chattanooga
Player W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR HB BB SO WHIP
Thompson 3 2 1.76 10 10 0 0 0 61.1 44 19 12 2 0 14 56 0.95

Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
Minors 8 4 2.70 21 20 0 0 0 126.2 105 47 38 8 30 99 1.01 .231


If not traded or injured, I think that he might put some pressure on the other Reds starters this spring training. Of course the large contracts and experience will trump him.

RED VAN HOT
10-28-2008, 11:17 PM
I am reluctant to vote for Thompson because he has not proven that he is durable. I like Dickerson, but it is hard to think of him as a prospect since he will be 27 two weeks into the season. He will either stick or be traded. As for Duran, I can't bring myself to consider him a top prospect until he has at least started shaving.

My vote goes to Dorn. He has continued to hit well as he has advanced. Last year, he overcame an early injury that resulted in a slow start and went on to post excellent numbers. I believe he has 30+ HR potential at the ML level. He would be great platooned in LF. I think he will start at Louisville, have a great season, and be with the Reds in 2010.

REDblooded
10-29-2008, 12:45 AM
For me, I'm going Duran. He just has freaky upside. Kid sounds like he could develop into one of the best players in the last 20 years if all works out right.

JayBruceFan
10-29-2008, 01:14 AM
Heisey

reds44
10-29-2008, 03:02 AM
The next three for me gotta be:
Dickerson
Thompson
Ramirez

I will never understand how Stubbs goes 4 and Dickerson is still on the board.

oardshaw
10-29-2008, 03:13 AM
like stewart here, could see him in cincy by 2010 in the pen throwin up double play balls!

cincyinco
10-29-2008, 04:39 AM
Juan Francisco.. Again..

Upside is just as high as most anyone in the system(although I realise he may not reach it). He's got the tools you want in a ball player, and I like his D.

I really think he's undervalued around here, given his potential upside.

TRF
10-29-2008, 09:27 AM
Dickerson. easily.

BRM
10-29-2008, 09:42 AM
I will never understand how Stubbs goes 4 and Dickerson is still on the board.

Age.

It was a tossup between Ramirez and Thompson for me. I went with Thompson.

lollipopcurve
10-29-2008, 09:49 AM
Dickerson.

Thompson, like Lotzkar, is too fragile for me to get too excited about at this point. I'd probably put 15 more guys ahead of him. Hope I'm wrong.

camisadelgolf
10-29-2008, 09:50 AM
I'm sticking with Duran. He has as much as hype as anyone in the system.

Kc61
10-29-2008, 10:30 AM
Dickerson struck out more than one third of his official (non-walk) at bats. That's a very high strikeout rate. It's a higher strikeout rate than Ryan Howard who fanned 199 times.

A player can, of course, compensate for a high strikeout rate by producing in his non-strikeout at bats.

But with that many strikeouts it becomes harder to have good numbers overall. If you make contact less than two thirds of the time there are just fewer opportunities to produce.

Dickerson did produce well in his non-strikeout at bats while with the Reds last year. The question is whether he can sustain that. It's a big challenge for him.

This pattern can be helped if Dickerson is platooned. Presumably his strikeout numbers will be better if he doesn't have to face lefty pitching.

nemesis
10-29-2008, 10:46 AM
I voted Fransisco. He has more true power potential than any player in the Minors for the Reds. Yes he does K ALOT and walk very little, but he did improve his K rate a touch this year. In 2008 it was 1K in every 4.2 ab's. In 2007 it was 1k per every 3.3 ab's. I say that's an impressive improvement especially in a pitchers leauge. Also if you dig deeper, he averaged a extra base hit every 10.68 ab in Dayton vs 8.32 ab's in Sarasota a MAJOR jump once again in a pitcher's leauge with large parks. He is progressing. Next year in a hitters leauge he might reduce that power number to the 6.9 to 7.4 range. He will hit 28 to 37 HR next year if he continues these trends while only striking out around 120 times. I say that is a prospect.

For the Record... Howard strikes out every 3.07 ab's and has a EBH every 7.82.

Mark Reynolds split is every 2.64 is a K and every 9.14 a EBH.

Dunn is 3.15 is a K and every 8.21 is a EBH.


Also he has had 4 straight 2 hit games in the Dominican League...

Kc61
10-29-2008, 11:00 AM
I voted Fransisco. He has more true power potential than any player in the Minors for the Reds. Yes he does K ALOT and walk very little, but he did improve his K rate a touch this year. In 2008 it was 1K in every 4.2 ab's. In 2007 it was 1k per every 3.3 ab's. I say that's an impressive improvement especially in a pitchers leauge. Also if you dig deeper, he averaged a extra base hit every 10.68 ab in Dayton vs 8.32 ab's in Sarasota a MAJOR jump once again in a pitcher's leauge with large parks. He is progressing. Next year in a hitters leauge he might reduce that power number to the 6.9 to 7.4 range. He will hit 28 to 37 HR next year if he continues these trends while only striking out around 120 times. I say that is a prospect.


...

I voted Francisco as well. Your post does a very good job of explaining some of the reasoning. However, I wouldn't agree that he strikes out a lot. For a power hitter, his strikeout rate is not high, as I think your post shows.

When you consider his free swinging tendencies, Francisco seems to make a lot of contact. His BA is always pretty good (.277 last year) and his Ks are down. He also generally has a high RBI number with correlates to his ability to make contact with men on base.

The trick for this prospect is to improve his walk rate even slightly. If he can OBP .320, given the rest of the package, he is a top five prospect in this organization. Even at the current level, I would vote for him in the 5-7 range.

Will M
10-29-2008, 12:18 PM
Dickerson struck out more than one third of his official (non-walk) at bats. That's a very high strikeout rate. It's a higher strikeout rate than Ryan Howard who fanned 199 times.

A player can, of course, compensate for a high strikeout rate by producing in his non-strikeout at bats.

But with that many strikeouts it becomes harder. If you make contact less than two thirds of the time there are just fewer opportunities to produce.

Dickerson did produce well in his non-strikeout at bats while with the Reds last year. The question is whether he can sustain that while striking out so much. It's a big challenge for him.

This pattern can be helped if Dickerson is platooned. Presumably his strikeout numbers will be better if he doesn't have to face lefty pitching.


if i were the Reds brass i would look at Dickerson as a platoon CF or 4th OF.
to think he'll suddenly hit LHP well is foolish. lets try to put players in positions where they will succeed rather than fail.

OnBaseMachine
10-29-2008, 12:35 PM
Francisco drew two walks in a game last night and is now hitting .304/.347/.543 - .890 OPS in the Dominican Winter League. Those are his first two walks in 46 atbats, so that's nice to see. If he can draw just a few more walks per month and get his total up around 40 he could be a force. His power is legit - he's easily got 35-40 homer power but his plate discipline will the key to him tapping into that power at the major league level. He's got a chance to be the first position player from the Reds Dominican Academy to make an impact at the major league level in what will hopefully be a tradition with Juan Duran and Junior Arias following.

New Fever
10-29-2008, 12:40 PM
I voted Francisco as well. Your post does a very good job of explaining some of the reasoning. However, I wouldn't agree that he strikes out a lot. For a power hitter, his strikeout rate is not high, as I think your post shows.

When you consider his free swinging tendencies, Francisco seems to make a lot of contact. His BA is always pretty good (.277 last year) and his Ks are down. He also generally has a high RBI number with correlates to his ability to make contact with men on base.

The trick for this prospect is to improve his walk rate even slightly. If he can OBP .320, given the rest of the package, he is a top five prospect in this organization. Even at the current level, I would vote for him in the 5-7 range.

Also, he is not just a power hitter. He was second in his league in hits, and in the top ten in almost every category. Also the best defensive third baseman in his league.

TRF
10-29-2008, 02:12 PM
if i were the Reds brass i would look at Dickerson as a platoon CF or 4th OF.
to think he'll suddenly hit LHP well is foolish. lets try to put players in positions where they will succeed rather than fail.

So, since so far in his career he has pretty much owned anyone throwing from the right side of his body, and that makes up 2/3 of his PA's you see him as a 4th OF?

BRM
10-29-2008, 02:16 PM
I wouldn't have a problem platooning Dickerson in CF as long as a competent RH option can be found to pair up with him.

SMcGavin
10-29-2008, 03:04 PM
The three top SP remaining, with their numbers this year in Louisville:

Maloney (age 24): 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Ramirez (age 25): 8.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9
Thompson (age 22): 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 (disclaimer: small sample with only 45 IP)

Will M
10-29-2008, 03:51 PM
So, since so far in his career he has pretty much owned anyone throwing from the right side of his body, and that makes up 2/3 of his PA's you see him as a 4th OF?

what part of 'platoon CF' don't you understand ?

TRF
10-29-2008, 04:23 PM
what part of 'platoon CF' don't you understand ?

I understand it just fine. I just don't like pigeon-holing players. Why platoon him and not Phillips? Should everyone that has inferior performance against one hand or the other be platooned?

I'd rather see him get 500+ PA's and let the 4th OF spell someone in need of a day off.

And you said Platoon CF or 4th OF. I see him with a higher ceiling than that.

reds44
10-29-2008, 04:24 PM
Also, he is not just a power hitter. He was second in his league in hits, and in the top ten in almost every category. Also the best defensive third baseman in his league.
When you almost never walk, you are going to rack up the hits. If/when he starts to walk more, he won't get as many hits.

BoydsOfSummer
10-29-2008, 04:48 PM
Should everyone that has inferior performance against one hand or the other be platooned?

Yes. But it never happens in the real world.

Kc61
10-29-2008, 05:01 PM
I understand it just fine. I just don't like pigeon-holing players. Why platoon him and not Phillips? Should everyone that has inferior performance against one hand or the other be platooned?

I'd rather see him get 500+ PA's and let the 4th OF spell someone in need of a day off.

And you said Platoon CF or 4th OF. I see him with a higher ceiling than that.


When you platoon a righty hitter like Phillips he hardly ever plays and you lose his defense for most of the games.

When you platoon a lefty outfielder like Dickerson he gets to play most of the time because most pitching is right handed.

Lockdwn11
10-29-2008, 05:34 PM
I voted Dickerson and I think he is better than alot of people give him credit for. I didn't see much of him him in the minor but I did see all of his at bats with the Reds I know it was only 100+ ABs but I came away impressed. He has a very smooth swing and is quick to the ball. He worked the count well, waited for a pitch to drive and did just that most of the time.

He also has a plus golve in Center. He does need to work on his contact a little but I have no doubt that he can put up a line of .280/.365/.485 and play Gold glove defense.

TRF
10-29-2008, 05:36 PM
When you platoon a righty hitter like Phillips he hardly ever plays and you lose his defense for most of the games.

When you platoon a lefty outfielder like Dickerson he gets to play most of the time because most pitching is right handed.

If you don't platoon him he might develop into a better all around hitter.

in 2008 at AAA, Dickerson sported a .356 OBP against LH pitchers. I'll take that from my leadoff hitter.

Orenda
10-29-2008, 06:00 PM
I went with Danny Dorn over Thompson this round, he hit 21 hr's in the final 3 months of the season and he's had solid production at every level he's been at. I think he would benefit from a full season at AAA to face as much left-handed pitching as possible because that the weakest part of his offensive game. He could easily be one of the best reds draft picks in terms of value since I've followed them (32nd round). Juan Francisco is drawing raves about his power but Dorn could be a 20-30 hr guy in the majors plus he's already showed solid plate discipline.

gedred69
10-29-2008, 07:05 PM
I went with Danny Dorn over Thompson this round, he hit 21 hr's in the final 3 months of the season and he's had solid production at every level he's been at. I think he would benefit from a full season at AAA to face as much left-handed pitching as possible because that the weakest part of his offensive game. He could easily be one of the best reds draft picks in terms of value since I've followed them (32nd round). Juan Francisco is drawing raves about his power but Dorn could be a 20-30 hr guy in the majors plus he's already showed solid plate discipline.

I agree with this logic. How soon people forget, Dorn was so impressive at Billings, he skipped Dayton, to Sarasota, and was promoted to Chattanooga. He would have made it to Louisville in'08 but for the injury incurred early, doing what? (Diving for a ball in the outfield). He projects a .280 avg., and 30-35 HRs. Bring 'im on..................

RED VAN HOT
10-29-2008, 08:03 PM
I voted Fransisco. He has more true power potential than any player in the Minors for the Reds. Yes he does K ALOT and walk very little, but he did improve his K rate a touch this year. In 2008 it was 1K in every 4.2 ab's. In 2007 it was 1k per every 3.3 ab's. I say that's an impressive improvement especially in a pitchers leauge. Also if you dig deeper, he averaged a extra base hit every 10.68 ab in Dayton vs 8.32 ab's in Sarasota a MAJOR jump once again in a pitcher's leauge with large parks. He is progressing. Next year in a hitters leauge he might reduce that power number to the 6.9 to 7.4 range. He will hit 28 to 37 HR next year if he continues these trends while only striking out around 120 times. I say that is a prospect.

For the Record... Howard strikes out every 3.07 ab's and has a EBH every 7.82.

Mark Reynolds split is every 2.64 is a K and every 9.14 a EBH.

Dunn is 3.15 is a K and every 8.21 is a EBH.


Also he has had 4 straight 2 hit games in the Dominican League...

It is hard to predict ML K rates from minor league stats. I looked at minor league BB and K rates for Dunn, EE, and Vlad Guerrero at age 20. This included A, A+, and AA since progression differed among these players.

AD 560 AB; 124 BB; 132 K
EE 460 ; 46 ; 76
VG 497 ; 33 ; 55

VG is a notorious bad ball hitter, but he has consistenly made contact right up through the ML level. He has been a hard man to walk, but also a hard man to strike out given his power.
Both AD and EE showed increased K rates at the ML level. Both, however, had decent BB rates in the minors.

By contrast, JF had 516; 19; 123.

This suggests to me that unless JF develops much better plate discipline, he is likely to be eaten up by ML pitching. The key is increasing the BB rate. K's will come down. I agree that his upside is tremendous. I hope he makes the improvements needed. His athleticism suggests he has a good chance to do it. Until I see evidence of improvement in the BB area, however, I would be reluctant to include him among the first 10 prospects.

kheidg-
10-29-2008, 09:30 PM
It is hard to predict ML K rates from minor league stats. I looked at minor league BB and K rates for Dunn, EE, and Vlad Guerrero at age 20. This included A, A+, and AA since progression differed among these players.

AD 560 AB; 124 BB; 132 K
EE 460 ; 46 ; 76
VG 497 ; 33 ; 55

VG is a notorious bad ball hitter, but he has consistenly made contact right up through the ML level. He has been a hard man to walk, but also a hard man to strike out given his power.
Both AD and EE showed increased K rates at the ML level. Both, however, had decent BB rates in the minors.

By contrast, JF had 516; 19; 123.

This suggests to me that unless JF develops much better plate discipline, he is likely to be eaten up by ML pitching. The key is increasing the BB rate. K's will come down. I agree that his upside is tremendous. I hope he makes the improvements needed. His athleticism suggests he has a good chance to do it. Until I see evidence of improvement in the BB area, however, I would be reluctant to include him among the first 10 prospects.

Well said...

OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 11:21 AM
Bump. The voting seems to be down in this poll. Thompson has only a nine vote lead over Duran. If that stays the same we may have to do a run-off vote depending on what you guys think.

JayBruceFan
10-30-2008, 12:20 PM
Why?

The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two

OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 12:25 PM
Why?

The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two

58 of the 105 voters have voted for someone other than Daryl Thompson or Juan Duran, the two leading vote getters. That's more than half the voters. I'd like to see what those other voters think before we declare a winner and move on.

Orenda
10-30-2008, 12:35 PM
I'm going to go ahead and predict Thompson 57 (+or-4) over Duran 48 (+or-4) in the run-off.

princeton
10-30-2008, 01:09 PM
Why?

The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two

don't make me pull out my electoral college stick.

nemesis
10-30-2008, 01:43 PM
Just for referance even though he isn't going to win... Francisco lines in his last 2 game is:

Oct 28 @ESC .500 4 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0
Oct 29 @EST .600 5 3 3 0 0 2 6 2 0 0 0


So thats 4 walks 5 hits 2 HR 8 RBI's and 1 K in his last 13 AB's... I think the light is starting to come on for this kid. If he could just turn that corner, him Soto, Alonso, Frazier, Bruce and Votto would be sick at full potential. Also add Stubbs to that equation and you just need a SS and a catcher.

JayBruceFan
10-30-2008, 03:54 PM
don't make me pull out my electoral college stick.

:nono:

HBP
10-30-2008, 03:56 PM
Why?

The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two


don't make me pull out my electoral college stick.

Ok, are we going to have to get Leo Dicaprio to start making "VOTE" commercials for Redszone? ;)

JayBruceFan
10-30-2008, 03:57 PM
Vote or Die

More like

Vote or become a Cubs fan

Highlifeman21
10-30-2008, 04:40 PM
I won't know for whom to vote when Duran comes off the board after 8....

Kc61
10-30-2008, 06:23 PM
I won't know for whom to vote when Duran comes off the board after 8....


Since Francisco should have been #5, it shouldn't be hard to figure out.

JayBruceFan
10-30-2008, 07:14 PM
Heisey ain't gettin no love

OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 07:26 PM
Well, we may not have to do a run-off vote now as it seems the last handful of votes have pushed Thompson further ahead. You guys think that's a big enough margin or should we do a run-off?

dougdirt
10-30-2008, 07:40 PM
Easily big enough for me. I would say that unless its 5 or less votes, that a run off isn't needed.

Highlifeman21
10-31-2008, 11:36 AM
Since Francisco should have been #5, it shouldn't be hard to figure out.

I've been voting Duran since #1.

What makes you think Francisco should have been #5?