Brandon Phillips is the best defensive 2B in baseball

[dougdirt]

Or thats what The Fielding Bible says per C Trent (http://thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/10/30/phillips_wins_fielding_bible_award).

Other winners this year:

First Base—Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Third Base—Adrian Beltre, Seattle Mariners
Shortstop—Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies
Left Field—Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
Center Field—Carlos Beltran, New York Mets
Right Field—Franklin Gutierrez, Cleveland Indians
Catcher—Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
Pitcher—Kenny Rogers, Detroit Tigers

[BRM]

Phillips won the vote even though he was 4th in +/- for second basemen. Votto was 3rd with a +19.

The bad:

EE was dead last among third basemen with a -21.
Keppinger was second to last among shortstops with a -14.

Other notables:

Adam Dunn was not among the 6 worst left fielders.
Josh Hamilton was among the 6 worst center fielders with a -13.

[OnBaseMachine]

Wow. I knew Votto was a good defender but I didn't realize he was that good. He's right on level with Pujols. Look at the Reds left side of the infield - EdE is the worst defensive 3B and Keppinger is the second worst shortstop.

Franklin Gutierrez is a guy I'd like the Reds to acquire. He's got some potential in his bat and he's the best defensive right fielder in the game.

[Mario-Rijo]

Wow. I knew Votto was a good defender but I didn't realize he was that good. He's right on level with Pujols. Look at the Reds left side of the infield - EdE is the worst defensive 3B and Keppinger is the second worst shortstop.

Franklin Gutierrez is a guy I'd like the Reds to acquire. He's got some potential in his bat and he's the best defensive right fielder in the game.

It's interesting isn't it. The right side is top of the charts good and the left side is top of the charts bad. Improving that left side will be paramount to our success next season. I wouldn't be opposed to Gutierrez playing RF for us and moving Bruce to LF, I think that improves the OF defense as well. Good call OBM. Although Gutierrez still has a ways to go offensively, but he played well vs. us IIRC. Perhaps this park is just better suited to him.

[BRM]

FWIW, Pujols was actually 2nd in +/- behind Teixeira. Beltran was also 2nd for centerfielders behind Carlos Gomez.

[osuceltic]

Another example of iffy defensive stats. No way Votto should rank that high defensively this season. Someday, maybe, because he definitely seems to have potential, but not this season. Even with the second-half improvement.

The left side of the infield is indefensible. It has to change.

[jojo]

Another example of iffy defensive stats.

Not really. You're looking at one season's worth of data from one system and such a small defensive sample can be very susceptible to random variation. If someone is claiming absolutism based upon that data, it's an example of iffy data interpretation. Sample size is a limitation with all metrics. Defensive metrics just tend to require larger sample sizes.

That said, Votto looks to grade out as a plus defender in year one based upon the data from several systems: Dewan's system, UZR and Justin's translations.

Is his true skill level that of an elite defensive first baseman as Dewan's year one data suggests? That remains to be seen as his chances pile up. However, several systems are in general agreement that there is reason to be more optimistic about his defense than previously thought. He's likely going to be a plus defender-the question probably is just how plus will plus be?

From a Cincy perspective just not being a minus defender is a huge plus IMHO.:cool:

[BRM]

The worst of the worst...

Nate McLouth -40
Brad Hawpe -37
Mike Jacobs -27
Jim Edmonds -26
Delmon Young -25
Bobby Abreu -24
Edwin Encarnacion -21
Pat Burrell -20

[Highlifeman21]

The worst of the worst...

Nate McLouth -40
Brad Hawpe -37
Mike Jacobs -27
Jim Edmonds -26
Delmon Young -25
Bobby Abreu -24
Edwin Encarnacion -21
Pat Burrell -20

It's possible all 3 of these names will be regulars for the Reds in 2009.

Just imagine that OF consisting of Burrell and Edmonds!

Woo boy!

[reds44]

Why would the Reds want Edmonds?

[Highlifeman21]

Why would the Reds want Edmonds?

They shouldn't, but it doesn't mean Walt may not go out and get him.

[HokieRed]

Looks like the numbers scream move EE to left and acquire Adrian Beltre.

[Kc61]

Looks like the numbers scream move EE to left and acquire Adrian Beltre.

Evaluate EE in terms of potential defense in left field (no experience, lacks great speed) and offense as a left fielder (decent, not great). Eliminate everyone's attachment to him as a prospect who was acquired in a trade and made good.

The scream I hear says now is a good time to trade him, while he is relatively cheap and young and potentially attractive to another team lacking a third baseman or DH.

On the other hand, I do hear a scream for Beltre, who would fit nicely and hopefully could be re-signed for a few years. The Reds are deep at third base in the minors, but there's not a "pure" third sacker with both great defensive and offensive skills apparently. Most of the guys may wind up in the outfield, first base, traded, etc. Soto is still a few years away.

[HokieRed]

I'd be more than happy to trade him. I frankly don't see him as part of the lineup by 2010if we are really going to be serious about the kind of defense needed to be an outstanding team. I see Votto in LF, Alonso on 1B in 2010 with somebody other than EE at 3d--maybe Frazier if he can play the position (and finding out if he can should be a very high priority of this year's minor league play), maybe Beltre if he can be gotten. I'd see a move to LF in 2009 as an experiment, one I prefer--if combined with the acquisition of Beltre--to acquiring a left fielder either through free agency or trade. Both of those routes will, I believe, cost us too much for players who are likely going to be only slightly better than EE will be (I should say I do not think we have any chance to get Holliday because I assume he simply will not forego his chance to test the free agency market).

[fearofpopvol1]

I still like Utley better defensively at 2B, but not significantly.

I wasn't blown away by Votto at 1B, but his 2nd half was really great. I'm curious to see if that is what sticks for a whole season. I have no reason to believe it won't. What I'm curious to know is what happens when Alonso is ready? Are they going to move a good defender just because he can't play anywhere else? Or do they move Alonso to 3B (or try to)?

A lot of hypothetical, I know. But it's interesting to ponder.

[*BaseClogger*]

What site are you guys getting those numbers from?

[Patrick Bateman]

I've been high on Votto's defense since the beginning of the year, so I'm not completely shocked that he made the top of the list. I honestly don't think he's quite there yet, but I think he will be in a year or two.

[RedsManRick]

Another example of iffy defensive stats. No way Votto should rank that high defensively this season. Someday, maybe, because he definitely seems to have potential, but not this season. Even with the second-half improvement.

The left side of the infield is indefensible. It has to change.

Just for the sake of playing devil's advocate, why not? What method of defense evaluation do you use that says Votto was not among the best 1B in 2008? I mean this honestly.

Plus/Minus may not be great -- but what method is better?

My gut says you're right. Votto that great. In particular, I don't think the plus/minus system captures the ability of the 1B to field poor throws, a particular weakness in Votto's game. That said, I don't know about you, but I watched Votto about 60 times this year and the rest of MLB 1B no more than 4 or 5 times each and many of them never. That's a REALLY small sample from which to definitively refute the more objective measure.

[blumj]

In particular, I don't think the plus/minus system captures the ability of the 1B to field poor throws, a particular weakness in Votto's game.
Which would likely give the SS and 3rd baseman "blame" for the plays that don't get made as a result.

[RedsManRick]

Which would likely give the SS and 3rd baseman "blame" for the plays that don't get made as a result.

Well, in fairness, perhaps they deserve the blame. Maybe it's the guys playing SS and 3B with Pujols or Teix at 1B that are getting undue credit when their stellar 1B save their bad throws. How much better would EE look if he was throwing to Pujols?

[blumj]

Well, in fairness, perhaps they deserve the blame. Maybe it's the guys playing SS and 3B with Pujols or Teix at 1B that are getting undue credit when their stellar 1B save their bad throws. How much better would EE look if he was throwing to Pujols?
Well, yeah, isn't that one of the questions you'd like defensive stats to answer better? I know I want IFers who make good throws, and a 1st baseman who fields throws well even when they're not so good, and defensive stats that give me a little better idea which of those things I have and which I don't.

[blumj]

What site are you guys getting those numbers from?

http://www.fieldingbible.com/
Use the drop down on Plus/Minus, click on 2008 leaders. For some reason, it didn't link directly to that page.

[*BaseClogger*]

http://www.fieldingbible.com/
Use the drop down on Plus/Minus, click on 2008 leaders. For some reason, it didn't link directly to that page.

Only the leaders are available?

[*BaseClogger*]

And are these +/- supposed to represent runs as I had thought? Or do they represent distance from the average like standard deviation?

[AtomicDumpling]

Just for the sake of playing devil's advocate, why not? What method of defense evaluation do you use that says Votto was not among the best 1B in 2008? I mean this honestly.

Plus/Minus may not be great -- but what method is better?

My gut says you're right. Votto that great. In particular, I don't think the plus/minus system captures the ability of the 1B to field poor throws, a particular weakness in Votto's game. That said, I don't know about you, but I watched Votto about 60 times this year and the rest of MLB 1B no more than 4 or 5 times each and many of them never. That's a REALLY small sample from which to definitively refute the more objective measure.

I agree 100% that Votto is not good at fielding poor throws. The +/- system does not account for that, which ended up punishing Encarnacion by about 5 points while also making Votto seem a little better than he really is.

Votto improved greatly over the course of the season defensively -- especially with regard to his flips to the pitcher covering first base. Votto also made some mental errors / rookie mistakes by throwing to the wrong base, not covering the base or failing to make a relay throw that were not accounted for in the +/- system.

All things said though, I think Votto is a pretty good first baseman. Maybe not the best, but he is good now and steadily getting even better. Keep in mind, you don't have to be Ozzie Smith's twin brother to be one of the best first basemen. First basemen as a group are not very good fielders -- that is why they play first base. Compared to the group of large, musclebound (and often old) guys that play first base I think Joey Votto is pretty darn good. But he does provide a good case study for the flaws in the +/- system of fielding evaluation.

[blumj]

And are these +/- supposed to represent runs as I had thought? Or do they represent distance from the average like standard deviation?
They're not runs, there's an "Overview of the Plus/Minus System" in "Fielding Bible Excerpts".

[jojo]

Essentially the enhanced plus/minus scores in Dewan's system represent the number of bases saved or given up relative to average (i.e. the score considers both the number and "quality" of the plays).

A rough justice conversion of the enhanced score to runs would be to simply halve it though James has argued that simply halving the score underestimates the run value (most pencil-necked saber-types use something like a .75 conversion factor).

[WVRedsFan]

It's interesting isn't it. The right side is top of the charts good and the left side is top of the charts bad. Improving that left side will be paramount to our success next season. I wouldn't be opposed to Gutierrez playing RF for us and moving Bruce to LF, I think that improves the OF defense as well. Good call OBM. Although Gutierrez still has a ways to go offensively, but he played well vs. us IIRC. Perhaps this park is just better suited to him.

Oh, but we can't trade young, learning Encarnacion and we have that very generous contract Wayne negotiated with Gonzo to stand in the way.

I look for both to be back and the ratings to continue to show that the Reds have the worst left side in baseball.

[GAC]

Wow. I knew Votto was a good defender but I didn't realize he was that good.

And yet throughout this past season I heard numerous posters complain that his defense at 1B was atrocious and one of the reasons he should be trade bait.

[Jpup]

Robinson Cano -16. Someone told us a few months ago that he was better than Brandon. I love Robbie, but he had a horrible year in about every aspect.

[mth123]

And yet throughout this past season I heard numerous posters complain that his defense at 1B was atrocious and one of the reasons he should be trade bait.

1B are like catchers. Mobility isn't super important at their positions and these measurements are meant more for dealing with range and efficiency which they try to capture. I'm not sure that the measuremnts are particularly applicable to C or 1B. The most important thing that these players do is take throws from other players on the team. IMO, Votto still isn't very good at that. He's pretty rangey for a 1B and isn't bad fielding ground balls, but I really don't like him as the guy taking the throws from the other infielders and I think it costs the team baserunners who aren't really charged against Votto in the box score. Its either an error on another player or in many cases an IF hit. Either way, a 1B who is good on and around the bag would have prevented some of those baserunners and the consequences in the form of runs and extra load on the pitching staff that go with them.

Alonso is not as athletic or mobile as Votto, but he is much better at doing his primary job around the bag. I say Votto needs to move to LF where his mobility will be an asset and he won't need to handle the ball nearly as much. A stopgap should fill 1B until Alonso arrives.

Votto, BTW, is my favorite current Reds player. This is in no way an attempt to take a shot at him. It is simply what I believe is best for the team now and in the future.

[osuceltic]

Just for the sake of playing devil's advocate, why not? What method of defense evaluation do you use that says Votto was not among the best 1B in 2008? I mean this honestly.

Plus/Minus may not be great -- but what method is better?

My gut says you're right. Votto that great. In particular, I don't think the plus/minus system captures the ability of the 1B to field poor throws, a particular weakness in Votto's game. That said, I don't know about you, but I watched Votto about 60 times this year and the rest of MLB 1B no more than 4 or 5 times each and many of them never. That's a REALLY small sample from which to definitively refute the more objective measure.

Fair questions. But just because there isn't a better metric does't mean this is a good one. Obviously, I watched Votto a lot this season. I've watched baseball for more than 30 years, so I've seen plenty of first basemen. I haven't watched enough of the current first basemen to do a comprehensive list, so exactly where Votto ranks among current players at that position I couldn't say. But I can say after watching him throughout the season and judging him against the 30 years worth of players I've seen at that position, he wasn't very good this season. He got better, and that's really encouraging.

I'm sad that defense at first base has become such an afterthought. I understand why, but I think defense at that position is really important. It impacts virtually every assisted play in the infield, and also requires interaction with both the pitcher and the second baseman and throws all over the infield. It's a critical defensive position. It doesn't require tremendous range, but it does require skill and quick decisions. The gold standard was Keith Hernandez. Anyone who watched him play appreciates how valuable he was. Anyone who just looks at his offensive numbers sees no reason why he should be in the conversation among great first basemen. I'll go to my grave believing that guy should be in the Hall of Fame. His defensive impact was matched by very few players over the past three decades -- guys like Bench and Ozzie.

Sorry, that got off track.

[Mario-Rijo]

1B are like catchers. Mobility isn't super important at their positions and these measurements are meant more for dealing with range and efficiency which they try to capture. I'm not sure that the measuremnts are particularly applicable to C or 1B. The most important thing that these players do is take throws from other players on the team. IMO, Votto still isn't very good at that. He's pretty rangey for a 1B and isn't bad fielding ground balls, but I really don't like him as the guy taking the throws from the other infielders and I think it costs the team baserunners who aren't really charged against Votto in the box score. Its either an error on another player or in many cases an IF hit. Either way, a 1B who is good on and around the bag would have prevented some of those baserunners and the consequences in the form of runs and extra load on the pitching staff that go with them.

Alonso is not as athletic or mobile as Votto, but he is much better at doing his primary job around the bag. I say Votto needs to move to LF where his mobility will be an asset and he won't need to handle the ball nearly as much. A stopgap should fill 1B until Alonso arrives.

Votto, BTW, is my favorite current Reds player. This is in no way an attempt to take a shot at him. It is simply what I believe is best for the team now and in the future.

Where do you get that info? I only seen the guy a few games in college but in those few games I seen him make 2 different gaffs in this area one nearly broke his nose and he wasn't close to the ball either time. Just bad luck or a potential issue? IDK but to say definitively that he is better around the bag is premature IMO.

[WebScorpion]

It's very sad to see Ken Griffey, Jr. listed as the 3rd worst right fielder in the game...oh how the mighty have fallen. :( The feeling is mildly assuaged by the observation that Jim Edmonds is rated as the 2nd worst center fielder in the game. ;)