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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #8 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 08:51 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson

OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 09:08 PM
This is a tough one for me. It come down to Chris Dickerson, Danny Dorn, Juan Duran, and Juan Francisco. I like Chris Dickerson a lot, but since he'll be 27 in April I may drop him to 11-13. Dorn has big power and good OBP skills but I like him better around 10. That brings it down to Duran or Francisco. Both have great potential, with Duran having the highest ceiling of the two, but I'm gonna go with Francisco since he's closer to the big leagues. Francisco has some flaws, but his power potential is among the best in all of the minor leagues. If he can improve his plate discipline he'll shoot to the top of this list next season.

AmarilloRed
10-30-2008, 09:21 PM
I'll vote for Dickerson here. I think performing in the major leagues is more important than impressing in the minors. Both Ramirez and Dickerson should be in the top 10, even if they are 26.

mth123
10-30-2008, 09:43 PM
Dickerson.

RedsManRick
10-30-2008, 09:59 PM
I just can't think of Chris Dickerson as a prospect any more. He'll be in his age 27 season next year. He is what he is. That could be a decent major leaguer, but there's no projection left in him.

OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 10:11 PM
Little off topic - the newly released Neftali Soto cards are going for between 25 and 40 dollars on EBAY. I'm gonna see if I can't sneak in and buy one for under $10.

fearofpopvol1
10-30-2008, 10:17 PM
It's kind of a crapshoot with these guys now...but I went with Francisco.

dougdirt
10-30-2008, 10:58 PM
Little off topic - the newly released Neftali Soto cards are going for between 25 and 40 dollars on EBAY. I'm gonna see if I can't sneak in and buy one for under $10.

Non Auto ones aren't going for much at all. Auto's have gone from 10-20 in past sales.... so you should be able to land one in that range. Personally, I will be waiting until he gets into a licensed prodcut.... Donruss is basically a minor league card now. Still, I think they will come down from that as more people open product.

OnBaseMachine
10-30-2008, 11:42 PM
Non Auto ones aren't going for much at all. Auto's have gone from 10-20 in past sales.... so you should be able to land one in that range. Personally, I will be waiting until he gets into a licensed prodcut.... Donruss is basically a minor league card now. Still, I think they will come down from that as more people open product.

Yeah, I figure I'll wait awhile and see if the price comes down. I picked up a Soto Tri Star card last year for a solid price after waiting a while.

Now I'm looking forward to picking up the first Duran/Yorman cards though I figure it'll be a year before they come out.

Mario-Rijo
10-31-2008, 01:17 AM
I have voted Dickerson the last 2 times. However RMR has a good point here he is a major leaguer already despite the technicality that he is still eligible for R.O.Y. He doesn't have any room to grow really he is for the most part what he is, he may improve incrementally but no giant surge is left in him. And I have a hard time voting for anyone above 24 or so years old who isn't even in the minors anymore.

So I'm gonna go with Devin Mesoraco here. I think what he done with the bat at a level in which was a tad high for him at 19 years old (for the 1st half of the season) is pretty solid. His defense still needs a lot of work but he's only 20 and won't be 21 until June sometime and has a decent shot of ending his 3rd pro season out of high school in High A as a Catcher. That puts him on a schedule of being pretty complete & making the pro's by age 23-24 or sooner which is pretty solid. This next season could really give us a lot of insight on how good his chances are for success. But right now I think he is deserving of top 10 consideration and I don't see anyone as compelling right now.

cincyinco
10-31-2008, 03:22 AM
Give me juan Francisco. The guy has huge upside and ceiling. He carries a lot of risk too, but I think he's young enough to still improve his game.. He's also swinging a hot bat lately, with huge power.

I felt mr. Francisco was good enough to be at 6 personally.. Duran is close for me as well, but Francisco is much closer and that puts him just a notch better in my book.

camisadelgolf
10-31-2008, 03:43 AM
Oops. I accidentally picked up Dorn. I mean to pick up Duran. That would mean Duran has 10 votes to Francisco's 11.

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 11:01 AM
Wow. Look at how tight this poll is so far. Duran and Francisco are tied (if you count camis' vote toward Duran) with Dickerson and Dorn right behind them.

lollipopcurve
10-31-2008, 11:06 AM
Wow. Look at how tight this poll is so far. Duran and Francisco are tied (if you count camis' vote toward Duran) with Dickerson and Dorn right behind them.

I'm telling you, the system is all offense with a dash of relievers. I think they need a strong haul of starting pitching in the next couple of drafts/signing periods.

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 11:12 AM
I'm telling you, the system is all offense with a dash of relievers. I think they need a strong haul of starting pitching in the next couple of drafts/signing periods.

I agree. I think Lotzkar's the only top-of-rotation arm in the system (Sulbaran too but he's yet to throw a pitch). Guys like Thompson, Smith, Ramirez, and Maloney are solid but I'd like to see some more arms like Lotzkar in the system. At least they seem to be making some progress with the drafting of Sulbaran and Tyler Cline and the signing of Ismael Guillon. Now hopefully we can get some draft picks for Weathers and/or Affeldt and restock with some more live arms in the 2009 draft.

WMR
10-31-2008, 11:16 AM
How's Wood looking, OBM? What level is he at right now?

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 11:21 AM
How's Wood looking, OBM? What level is he at right now?

Wood's coming off a rough season. He pitched well in High-A (46.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 21 BB/41 K) and was promoted to Double-A. He had some good games in AA, including one where he carried a perfect game into the 7th inning IIRC and a no-no into the 8th, but overall the bad outweighed the good. He finished with a 7.09 ERA and 48 BB/58 K ratio in 80 innings with AA Chattanooga. He's still only 21 (turns 22 in February) so he's got plenty of time, but 2009 is a big year for him IMO.

klw
10-31-2008, 11:28 AM
I am just glad that there are still so many good players including high ceiling players still on the board at this point. A few years ago it would have been hard to pick #8 for the opposite problem. Hard to choose now due to a lot of talent.

Orenda
10-31-2008, 11:52 AM
I agree. I think Lotzkar's the only top-of-rotation arm in the system (Sulbaran too but he's yet to throw a pitch). Guys like Thompson, Smith, Ramirez, and Maloney are solid but I'd like to see some more arms like Lotzkar in the system. At least they seem to be making some progress with the drafting of Sulbaran and Tyler Cline and the signing of Ismael Guillon. Now hopefully we can get some draft picks for Weathers and/or Affeldt and restock with some more live arms in the 2009 draft.

agreed, i also would like to see them go over-slot in the later rounds. If you are in the top 3rd of the draft order, than you have to try to capitalize on signing talent when presented with it.

I'm going with Dorn again, the guy has just been solid. Im not going to argue with people voting for Francisco either, but I have a hard time wrapping my head around the fact that a 17 year old who hasn't played in the states could justify being rated ahead of guys who have already been producing in the system, at least in the top 10 anyways.

the bottom half of BA's 2005 top 10 list
5. B.J. Szymasnki
6. Thomas Pauly
7. Todd Coffey
8. William Bergolla
9. Tyler Pelland
10. Paul Janish

WMR
10-31-2008, 11:52 AM
Wood's coming off a rough season. He pitched well in High-A (46.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 21 BB/41 K) and was promoted to Double-A. He had some good games in AA, including one where he carried a perfect game into the 7th inning IIRC and a no-no into the 8th, but overall the bad outweighed the good. He finished with a 7.09 ERA and 48 BB/58 K ratio in 80 innings with AA Chattanooga. He's still only 21 (turns 22 in February) so he's got plenty of time, but 2009 is a big year for him IMO.

Thx bud.

Do you think his future is in the pen or is he going to stick as a starter?

I guess maybe if he struggles next season trying him out of the pen might be the next step?

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 11:59 AM
Thx bud.

Do you think his future is in the pen or is he going to stick as a starter?

I guess maybe if he struggles next season trying him out of the pen might be the next step?

Welcome back, btw!

I think they'll stick with him as a starter for at least one more season. The talent is there - He's got a solid fastball for a lefty, and his changeup is one of the best in the minors. I don't think he was quite ready yet for AA as his control was still lacking behind his stuff. If he continues to struggle, moving him to the bullpen could be an option but I look for to stick it out as a starter for now.

WMR
10-31-2008, 12:00 PM
Welcome back, btw!

I think they'll stick with him as a starter for at least one more season. The talent is there - He's got a nice fastball for a lefty, and his changeup is one of the best in the minors. I don't think he was quite ready yet for AA as his control was still lacking behind his stuff. If he continues to struggle, moving him to the bullpen could be an option but I look for to stick it out as a starter for now.

Thanks buddy. Glad to be back.

Great work in the minor league forum, btw. It is appreciated.

redsfandan
10-31-2008, 12:00 PM
I am just glad that there are still so many good players including high ceiling players still on the board at this point. A few years ago it would have been hard to pick #8 for the opposite problem. Hard to choose now due to a lot of talent.

it definitely seems like we have alot of offensive depth. just have to work on depth on top of the rotation pitchers and plus defenders.

BRM
10-31-2008, 12:06 PM
Thanks buddy. Glad to be back.


You might be glad to be back. We aren't too happy about it though.

WMR
10-31-2008, 12:10 PM
You might be glad to be back. We aren't too happy about it though.

:beerme:

BRM
10-31-2008, 12:19 PM
:beerme:

I could use one or 12 of those today.

bubbachunk
10-31-2008, 12:46 PM
Juan Duran because of potential and that is what a prospect is potential.

kpresidente
10-31-2008, 01:15 PM
I'm telling you, the system is all offense with a dash of relievers. I think they need a strong haul of starting pitching in the next couple of drafts/signing periods.

Yeah, but you have to look at the young players in the organization as a whole....

Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Owings, Thompson, Ramirez, Lotzkar, Maloney, Jukich, Wood

That's a lot of good, young starting pitchers.


Then the relievers...

Burton, Bray, Massett, Roenicke, Herrera, Stewart, Pelland, Fisher, Manuel, Viola....plus any of the starters who might not make it starting, but could be quality relievers.


I think there's a little bias on the boards toward the hitters, too. Robert Manuel is named the best relief pitcher in all of AA, and he doesn't even make the list? I see people calling for Dickerson, and quite frankly, I don't think he's a better prospect than Ramirez. And what about Bailey? Stubbs isn't a better prospect than Bailey, IMO.

TRF
10-31-2008, 01:18 PM
Dickerson till he makes it for me.

kpresidente
10-31-2008, 01:19 PM
Dorn vs. Francisco is interesting. It's basically defense vs. OBP. Which do you say is more important? I'll take the OBP, which is why I voted Dorn here.

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 01:49 PM
I think there's a little bias on the boards toward the hitters, too. Robert Manuel is named the best relief pitcher in all of AA, and he doesn't even make the list? I see people calling for Dickerson, and quite frankly, I don't think he's a better prospect than Ramirez. And what about Bailey? Stubbs isn't a better prospect than Bailey, IMO.

Homer Bailey is no longer considered a prospect after losing his rookie eligibility.

cincyinco
10-31-2008, 02:24 PM
How is dorn getting so much love? I mean, I like his bat, but right now he seems nothing more than a platoon player. If he is indeed limited to that description, then its a sad reflection of our system IMO.

dougdirt
10-31-2008, 02:28 PM
How is dorn getting so much love? I mean, I like his bat, but right now he seems nothing more than a platoon player. If he is indeed limited to that description, then its a sad reflection of our system IMO.

Dorn doesn't slug much against lefties, but he still gets on base against them. I rated him in my Top 10 simply because he has enough power to hit 30 HR in the majors even if he is limited to about 450 at bats against mostly RHP while getting on base at a good rate.

Mario-Rijo
10-31-2008, 02:30 PM
Homer Bailey is no longer considered a prospect after losing his rookie eligibility.

You know what though, technically that's correct but he is still just a prospective major leaguer. And for that reason I think we should consider including him. Even if it's just as an honorable mention to get an idea where he'd would slot in for RZ's if he had his eligibility. In fact I am gonna run a seperate poll to find that out. You don't have to include it with your end results if you don't wanna OBM but it certainly wouldn't hurt with an asterisk.

JayBruceFan
10-31-2008, 02:37 PM
Don't forget Travis Webb if he can come back from TJ

Mario-Rijo
10-31-2008, 02:46 PM
Wood's coming off a rough season. He pitched well in High-A (46.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 21 BB/41 K) and was promoted to Double-A. He had some good games in AA, including one where he carried a perfect game into the 7th inning IIRC and a no-no into the 8th, but overall the bad outweighed the good. He finished with a 7.09 ERA and 48 BB/58 K ratio in 80 innings with AA Chattanooga. He's still only 21 (turns 22 in February) so he's got plenty of time, but 2009 is a big year for him IMO.

This kid has long been my favorite pitcher in the system. He's had an awful go of it both with injuries and ineffectiveness. But like you have stated this next season will be a big deal for him, he must put it together or will likely fall far off the radar. Eventually though I see him as a relief pitcher.

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 03:30 PM
John Manuel on Yonder Alonso:

Q: Daniel from NYC asks: from NYC asks:
With the plate discipline that Yonder Alonso has shown will he be the best overall hitter ( Power/ average) to emerge from this draft class?

A: John Manuel: He could be; I don' think he has the combination of hitting for average and power that Alvarez, Smoak and, say, Eric Hosmer have, but he walked twice as much as he struck out at Miami the last 2 years, and still managed to hit 20-plus bombs this season. He's short to the ball, keeps the bat through the zone a long time and has a nice, high finish. He's going to hit, I think the Q is how many home runs. .300-.400.-.550 seems like it's possible for him to achieve fairly consistently.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/chat.php?id=2008103101&rnd=7

That would make Alonso a perennial MVP candidate and top 10-12 hitter in baseball.

BRM
10-31-2008, 04:03 PM
Great Googly Moogly!! .300/.400/.550 from Alonso? Give me some of that.

TRF
10-31-2008, 04:31 PM
Dorn vs. Francisco is interesting. It's basically defense vs. OBP. Which do you say is more important? I'll take the OBP, which is why I voted Dorn here.

Dickerson gives you both. just sayin' :)

gedred69
10-31-2008, 07:05 PM
Dorn doesn't slug much against lefties, but he still gets on base against them. I rated him in my Top 10 simply because he has enough power to hit 30 HR in the majors even if he is limited to about 450 at bats against mostly RHP while getting on base at a good rate.

Ah, you make some excellent points. I'd add, Dorn is much closer to MLB ready, than so many others that are at least 2 years away, some probably even longer. How many guys hit the wall at, or soon after AA?

RED VAN HOT
10-31-2008, 08:01 PM
[QUOTE=JayBruceFan;1757100]Don't forget Travis Webb if he can come back from TJ[/QUOTE

As long as we are mentioning those left out, how about Jeremy Horst? Tall, LHP who thrived as a starter. 6.5 H/9; 9.7 K/9; .202 Avg against; ground ball tendencies.

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 08:13 PM
Webb or Horst haven't been left out, they just haven't been added yet. I don't see the point in adding Webb yet. He didn't even make our top 40 last year and he missed all of 2008 due to Tommy John surgery. I'm sure he rehabbed very nicely, but it wasn't enough to push him into our top 10, or even 20. :)

I'll add Horst to the next poll.

WMR
10-31-2008, 08:27 PM
Great Googly Moogly!! .300/.400/.550 from Alonso? Give me some of that.

http://video.aol.com/video-detail/good-googly-moogly/863113328

JayBruceFan
10-31-2008, 11:32 PM
Yeah my post about Webb was in response to a post on the first page

I just didn't quote it for some reason

It look's random without context

:D

kpresidente
11-01-2008, 09:26 AM
Dickerson gives you both. just sayin' :)
...toss in some speed on the basepaths.

I like Dickerson, but he's really only got one good half-season under his belt and he'll be 27. The age is what really gets me. He's already in his prime. To me, that means his numbers aren't a product of him becoming a better prospect, just that he's gotten older. Imagine the numbers that Dorn would put up if he was still in AAA three years from now? He might have a 1.100 OPS.

OnBaseMachine
11-01-2008, 10:10 AM
It's been awhile since someone has voted. If the voting doesn't pick up in the next few hours then I'll go ahead and start the run-off vote between the two Juan's.

OnBaseMachine
11-01-2008, 12:39 PM
It looks like we'll definitely have to do a run-off vote on this one. Do you want me to keep the voting open one day or two days for the run-off? Dickerson is closing the gap so I may have to include him with Duran and Francisco. Whattya think?

Mario-Rijo
11-01-2008, 01:28 PM
It looks like we'll definitely have to do a run-off vote on this one. Do you want me to keep the voting open one day or two days for the run-off? Dickerson is closing the gap so I may have to include him with Duran and Francisco. Whattya think?

I'd go with 1 day, no need to make this a 4 day poll. Heck I'd also add Dorn and make it a 4 way run-off, he's only 6 votes out himself.

REDblooded
11-01-2008, 01:38 PM
I would just do Duran and Francisco. Those are the only 2 with 20 votes. Why add another to the mix? Those two are tied.

dougdirt
11-01-2008, 01:50 PM
I would do Duran, Francisco and Dickerson. All are within 3 votes of eachother.... thats close enough for me to have a 3 way run off.

Mario-Rijo
11-01-2008, 02:06 PM
I would do Duran, Francisco and Dickerson. All are within 3 votes of eachother.... thats close enough for me to have a 3 way run off.

We have 109 votes and no one has more than 1/5 of the total, I'd say anyone within 5-6 votes ought to be included.

camisadelgolf
11-01-2008, 02:23 PM
More runoff candidates can only add to the "accuracy" (for lack of a better term). I think four is fine.

kheidg-
11-01-2008, 03:29 PM
What's the criteria for a run-off? I see Duran up by two votes. If this poll ends and he is ahead by more than 2, I say give it to him and move on to #9.

If it must be a run-off - include Francisco and Duran. Dickerson is down 5 votes and Dorn 7.

Orenda
11-01-2008, 04:03 PM
Well by my math there are 37 votes for people other than those 4 and I have a strong suspicion that those who voted for Dorn and Dickerson are more likely to favor Fransisco over Duran

OnBaseMachine
11-01-2008, 04:08 PM
I would do Duran, Francisco and Dickerson. All are within 3 votes of eachother.... thats close enough for me to have a 3 way run off.

That's what I was thinking. So everyone agrees we should just keep the runoff open one day instead of two?

Screwball
11-01-2008, 05:11 PM
That's what I was thinking. So everyone agrees we should just keep the runoff open one day instead of two?

1 day sounds good to me.

kheidg-
11-01-2008, 05:31 PM
1 day. But going forward, how many votes does someone have to win by to actually win and avoid a run-off?

dougdirt
11-01-2008, 06:28 PM
1 day. But going forward, how many votes does someone have to win by to actually win and avoid a run-off?

For me, more than 5 votes makes sense.

OnBaseMachine
11-01-2008, 06:46 PM
For me, more than 5 votes makes sense.

That sounds about right.

Danny Serafini
11-02-2008, 12:29 AM
If it's not a tie, I don't see a point in a runoff. Why make this more complicated than necessary?

Mario-Rijo
11-02-2008, 06:33 PM
If it's not a tie, I don't see a point in a runoff. Why make this more complicated than necessary?

Because the multitude of options is sort of blurring the results. I mean it should be fairly obvious who the next 5 best prospects are roughly speaking at least through about the top ten or 15 prospects. Perhaps we ought to better define what a prospect is. Too me it's a combination of ceiling level and how likely they are to make it to the bigs and that ceiling. One w/o the other is fairly ludicrous IMO.