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View Full Version : Bailey is what # prospect 4 U?



Mario-Rijo
10-31-2008, 02:35 PM
Assuming Homer was still eligible for R.O.Y considerations where would you vote for him to be in the rankings? A poll is included.

I ask this question mostly just to get an idea of how RZ still values him, despite the struggles he's had.

dougdirt
10-31-2008, 02:40 PM
Easily in the top 3.

WMR
10-31-2008, 02:42 PM
Easily in the top 3.

What do you see Bailey doing next season?

What does he need to improve upon the most?

What are his greatest strengths right now?

camisadelgolf
10-31-2008, 02:51 PM
I would put him around Daryl Thompson, wherever that is.

princeton
10-31-2008, 02:53 PM
Bailey smells like number two :D

Mario-Rijo
10-31-2008, 03:01 PM
I teetered for awhile between 4-5 with some consideration at 6 & 7. But ultimately I still think he is ahead of Stubbs, Valaika & even Lotzkar right now. But Soto, Frazier & Alonso I feel are top 3 hands down currently.

dougdirt
10-31-2008, 03:05 PM
Bailey

Pros - Higher upside than any pitcher in the system. 93-96 MPH fastball, 2 seamer 88-92 MPH. Good pitchers body. No arm injuries. Curve, change and slider are all good at times.

Cons - Lackluster performance lately. Needs to hone in control more. Offspeed pitches are still inconsistent.

I feel I could make an argument to rank him #1 and feel justified having him there.

Mario-Rijo
10-31-2008, 03:13 PM
Bailey

Pros - Higher upside than any pitcher in the system. 93-96 MPH fastball, 2 seamer 88-92 MPH. Good pitchers body. No arm injuries. Curve, change and slider are all good at times.

Cons - Lackluster performance lately. Needs to hone in control more. Offspeed pitches are still inconsistent.

I feel I could make an argument to rank him #1 and feel justified having him there.

Certainly I could agree with that. I just think to myself that he just seems to be a guy who will have less impact than originally thought, at least that's where the odds are IMO. Or in other words I sorta see him as a realistic #3 at this point with a shot to still be TOR. There's just something Kyle Lohse-ian to him right now.

dougdirt
10-31-2008, 03:18 PM
I still see AJ Burnett as a really good comp for Bailey.

bucksfan2
10-31-2008, 03:19 PM
Certainly I could agree with that. I just think to myself that he just seems to be a guy who will have less impact than originally thought, at least that's where the odds are IMO. Or in other words I sorta see him as a realistic #3 at this point with a shot to still be TOR. There's just something Kyle Lohse-ian to him right now.

I like the Kyle Lohse comparison to some degree. Bailey is still very very young. I think he gets the benefit of the doubt because of his age. He has the stuff he just needs to put it together. Its not the lack of ability I think right now it is more of a mental/lack of confidence problem. He just seems to be knocked off his game when something doesn't go his way. IMO if he were to have some success and be able to build off that he will become a very good pitcher.

REDblooded
10-31-2008, 03:23 PM
I put him at 3.....

Doug, maybe you could verify this for me. I've been under the assumption for the past season that a lot of Bailey's issues have been the result of having his pitching motion tweaked to help hold runners.... Seems that upon that change, his veclocity dipped (along with injuries playing a small part). Any truth to this?

dougdirt
10-31-2008, 03:26 PM
I put him at 3.....

Doug, maybe you could verify this for me. I've been under the assumption for the past season that a lot of Bailey's issues have been the result of having his pitching motion tweaked to help hold runners.... Seems that upon that change, his veclocity dipped (along with injuries playing a small part). Any truth to this?

The Reds have changed his mechanics, but the drop in velocity was nothing more than the Reds not allowing him to throw his 4 seam fastball lately and the hamstring injury.

Will M
10-31-2008, 04:13 PM
#3 behind Alonso and Frazier.

he still is quite young and has TOR potential.

pitchers often mature later that hitters. Orel Hershiser was a 26 year old rookie who was awesome until he tore his rotator cuff. How old was Randy Johnson before he put it together?

I think the Reds need to pitch Homer in AAA for at least 3 months, likely all year unless he is just lights out.

Highlifeman21
10-31-2008, 04:27 PM
Unfortunately, Bailey's merry-go-round trips between Louisville and Cincinnati took him off the prospect radar for me.

I still hope he turns out to be something serviceable, but at this stage of the game he might have a better career following Kerry Wood's current role: closer.

TRF
10-31-2008, 04:38 PM
Every prospect has a "ceiling" and a "floor". Doug says Bailey's comp is AJ Burnett. I see it as Burnett is his ceiling.

And that's a damn fine ceiling. The thing is, Bailey seems, at this point in his career, to be a bit brittle. That reinforces doug's comparison to Burnett. Dynamite stuff, but he can't use it if he can't stay on the mound. Because he's been injured two straight years, I have him at #7 if he were eligible. He has tremendous value to the Reds, but as what, is the question.

redsmetz
10-31-2008, 05:28 PM
I'm not sure what number to put him at, but it has certainly reached the point where the rubber needs to meet the road. He's still young, but he needs to start showing some seasoning and pitch like we expect him to.

mth123
10-31-2008, 06:22 PM
I still think he'd be number 1.

RedsManRick
10-31-2008, 06:35 PM
I still see AJ Burnett as a really good comp for Bailey.

For upside, sure. But Burnett is throwing his fastball 95 mph on average. Bailey will have to fix whatever has been wrong with him mechanically to get back to that point.

I have next to no read on the kid. I sure hope he can realize his potential -- but I'm not optimistic. As a guy with a 92 mph straight fastball and a curve and change he can't control at all, he's not much of a prospect.

Lockdwn11
10-31-2008, 06:45 PM
I put him at 15-20. That maybe a little low but I was pumped up about Homer with everything I read about him on this board and then I saw him pitch and wasn't impressed. His fastball does top out at 96-97 mph but it looks very straight with no movement. His off-speed stuff looked weak and didn't have any bit to it.

In other words his stuff didn't look TOR to me. Then as I watch him even more I noticed this guy just may be a head case (weak minded) and his stuff is the least of his worry. I maybe wrong and I hope I am I really do because no other prospect would be more helpful to the future of the Reds than Homer Bailey. If he can put it all together and be everything he was supposed to be no one will be happier then me.

fearofpopvol1
10-31-2008, 08:31 PM
I would put him around Daryl Thompson, wherever that is.

Me too. I listed him as 5 (behind Thompson), but I could be sold on him being 4 (behind Alonso, Frazier and Soto).

AmarilloRed
10-31-2008, 09:12 PM
11-15. He just seems to be a different pitcher than he was 2 years ago, and I begin to wonder if he will ever stick in the major leagues. Still time to turn it around, though.

Bip Roberts
10-31-2008, 09:21 PM
He has to much randomness imo to give a legit ranking from me.

HokieRed
10-31-2008, 09:34 PM
#2 behind Alonso. Power pitcher who has had no arm injury and has tremendous secondary stuff. There are just not many of those out there.

LoganBuck
10-31-2008, 10:32 PM
As I watched Matt Garza pitching in the ALCS I could not help but think that if Bailey ever gets his stuff together he would look like that. Similar stuff, build, and delivery. Garza had the light go on in June this year. He had not been struggling as bad as Bailey, but he was expendable for a Twins team that can not afford to trade young pitching, no matter the return (Delmon Young). I see Bailey as #4. As much of that is the fact that the Reds have no starting pitching prospects above AA. Forgive me but I have no faith in Thompson, and Maloney isn't very good or projectable.

OnBaseMachine
10-31-2008, 10:55 PM
As I watched Matt Garza pitching in the ALCS I could not help but think that if Bailey ever gets his stuff together he would look like that. Similar stuff, build, and delivery.

I said the same thing to my dad. Bailey has the same build as Garza, very similar delivery, and his stuff was similar back in 2006 when he had that big bender. Let's hope Homer can put it together and be our Garza in a couple years.

REDblooded
11-01-2008, 01:19 AM
I really don't think people realize that at Bailey's age, he could be in college mowing down batters right now and set to be a top 5 draft pick this upcoming june......... if that was the case, and the Reds drafted him, where would you rate him then?

This kid still has a LOT of time left to put it all together. The stuff is there.

dougdirt
11-01-2008, 03:38 AM
For upside, sure. But Burnett is throwing his fastball 95 mph on average. Bailey will have to fix whatever has been wrong with him mechanically to get back to that point.

I have next to no read on the kid. I sure hope he can realize his potential -- but I'm not optimistic. As a guy with a 92 mph straight fastball and a curve and change he can't control at all, he's not much of a prospect.

Last time Bailey threw this year he was sitting 94-96 MPH in Louisville with a slider in the 87-89 MPH range to go with a good curve and a good change..... The fact that the Reds wouldn't let Bailey throw his 4 seamer has a whole lot of people misinformed on where his velocity sits because they saw his 2 seam fastball on an injured leg for the last year for the most part. The guy is very inconsistent still, but when he is on, he could make claim to being one of the best pitchers in the minor leagues still.

GOYA
11-01-2008, 04:05 AM
#1

There were question marks until I watched him pitch his start in IL playoffs. He simply dominated the Rays' AAA team.

mth123
11-01-2008, 07:09 AM
Of all the players in the Reds minor league system, ask yourself a question. Who are the players with the talent and potential to develop one day into a perennial MVP or CY Young candidate? I don't know about Juan Duran yet, Neftali Soto would be a guy I'd consider, probably no for Stubbs, Frazier, Francisco and even Alonso. The only guy that I could see answering yes on is Homer Bailey. IMO he is still the Reds number one player in the minor league system and could eventually make that kind of impact. He's not eligible for the lists because of the rules, but he's still a 22 year old kid who needs to put it together and if he does he'll be a dominating type. He is on par with Bruce, Votto, Cueto and Volquez as far as potential goes and while I think the system is fairly deep in players with enough talent to contribute (and in some cases thrive) at the major league level. No one eligible for these lists has that type of potential.

Add that as a young high ceiling starter, Bailey could still probably be a centerpiece in a trade for a significant player at another position and probably has more trade value than the others.

He's number 1 IMO, but he's not ready yet, and the Reds should avoid any thoughts of him on the major league roster in 2009.

_Sir_Charles_
11-01-2008, 10:38 AM
I agree completely. #1 for me too. And I seriously hope all the talk of converting him to a reliever is dumped ASAP. Durability, stamina, build & pitch selection all point towards starter. Relievers are a dime a dozen, young starters with his type of upside are nowhere near as common.

Mario-Rijo
11-01-2008, 11:43 AM
Of all the players in the Reds minor league system, ask yourself a question. Who are the players with the talent and potential to develop one day into a perennial MVP or CY Young candidate? I don't know about Juan Duran yet, Neftali Soto would be a guy I'd consider, probably no for Stubbs, Frazier, Francisco and even Alonso. The only guy that I could see answering yes on is Homer Bailey. IMO he is still the Reds number one player in the minor league system and could eventually make that kind of impact. He's not eligible for the lists because of the rules, but he's still a 22 year old kid who needs to put it together and if he does he'll be a dominating type. He is on par with Bruce, Votto, Cueto and Volquez as far as potential goes and while I think the system is fairly deep in players with enough talent to contribute (and in some cases thrive) at the major league level. No one eligible for these lists has that type of potential.

Add that as a young high ceiling starter, Bailey could still probably be a centerpiece in a trade for a significant player at another position and probably has more trade value than the others.

He's number 1 IMO, but he's not ready yet, and the Reds should avoid any thoughts of him on the major league roster in 2009.

I think if we are being fair here you could make an argument for Alonso and Lotzkar to be perennial types also. I agree that Stubbs, Frazier & Francisco are less likely but if they fulfill their potential they certainly could be.

However with regards to Bailey, what do you say to people whom have questioned how good his stuff is? A 4S fastball with little to no movement does not bode well for a perennial Cy Young candidate. The rest of his stuff would have to be filthy to make that 4S less an issue and no one seems overhwelmed by any of those pitches either.

HokieRed
11-01-2008, 01:26 PM
Agree with mth123 as usual. Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Homer. 3 of the 5 from O'Brien in a mere two years. Any doubt about who ought still to be the GM?

Mario-Rijo
11-01-2008, 01:35 PM
Agree with mth123 as usual. Cueto, Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Homer. 3 of the 5 from O'Brien in a mere two years. Any doubt about who ought still to be the GM?

GM? Let's not forget that he only hired the guy who made the picks of Bruce & Bailey. Cueto was Almarez's baby I believe, Volquez & Krivsky, Bowden's Sr. Director of Scouting & Votto.