5th starter a key piece of the puzzle?

[ChatterRed]

Here's our 5th starter results from '08.


Josh Fogg - 14 starts, 2-7, 78 IP, 7.58 e.r.a.
Homer Bailey - 8 starts, 0-6, 36 IP, 7.93
Matt Belisle - 6 starts, 1-4, 29 IP, 7.28
Ramon Ramirez - 4 starts, 1-1, 27 IP, 2.67 e.r.a.
Darryl Thompson - 3 starts, 0-2, 14 IP, 6.91 e.r.a.
Adam Pettyjohn - 1 start, 0-1, 4 IP, 20.25 e.r.a

5th starters combined to go 36 starts, 4-21, with an e.r.a of 7.10. In 36 starts, they averaged pitching just over 5 innings per start. Why not grab an innings eater starting pitcher with an e.r.a in the 4.00's?

Do we really want to go into next season undecided at the 5th starter position or do we want to get some capable with an e.r.a. atleast in the 4.00's that gives us a chance to cut those 21 losses in half????? Geez, had we just gone 13-12, we'd have picked up 9 more wins. Bolster the offense a bit more and we're in contention.

[Emin3mShady07]

Who in their right mind would let Josh Fogg have 14 starts with those numbers? I guess there wasn't much else to choose from but Fogg was just awful. Anyways, if the reds could get an innings eater in that 5th Rotation spot, they would certainly be much better, but I don't know what guys are out there that fit the bill, that wouldn't be too expensive

[kpresidente]

If Owings is healthy, he's going to improve those numbers from the 5th spot, almost surely. But how much? He's got some serious question marks (health, coming off a bad season, inexperience). That's why I'm mostly looking at the TOR pitchers. I want somebody who would be unquestionably better than Owings because I'd prefer Owings as a long-reliever/spot starter. We already have one question mark in Harang. I just don't want to play games with the rotation. Play games with the position players first.

[kpresidente]

Geez, had we just gone 13-12, we'd have picked up 9 more wins. Bolster the offense a bit more and we're in contention.

On top of that, imagine if Harang had gone 16-6 like he did in 2007? That could have been another 10 wins. 19 more wins total equals a 93-69 season. Instead, a few games from the cellar, all because of the failure of the rotation.

[757690]

Who in their right mind would let Josh Fogg have 14 starts with those numbers? I guess there wasn't much else to choose from but Fogg was just awful. Anyways, if the reds could get an innings eater in that 5th Rotation spot, they would certainly be much better, but I don't know what guys are out there that fit the bill, that wouldn't be too expensive

First it is important to note that the average ERA for a fifth starter was 6.79 last year. With 30 teams, it is impossible for their to be enough good pitching for every team to have 5 decent starters.

Also, I would argue that the problem with the Reds use of Fogg is that they did not pitch him enough. Fogg is the type of pitcher that you need to send out every fifth day and just accept the results. He will suck around half the time and be decent around half the time. His overall numbers will be bad, but he will give you around 10-15 decent starts a year, which is about what one should expect from a 5th starter.

Last year, the Reds pulled him from the rotation after just 3 starts. ONLY THREE STARTS!! Two were bad, one was good. There was no need to be so quick with the hook with him. Had they kept him in there, he probably would have given them around 12-14 decent starts. (In the 15 starts that he did have, he gave the Reds 6 decent starts.)

Yes, Fogg had terrible numbers, but you judge a starting pitcher not by their overall numbers, but by the number of times they keep the team in the game. Fogg has a history of doing that in around half his games every season, and I think he would have provided just that last season if given a chance to start every fifth day.

As for next year, I think between Owings, Ramirez, Thompson and Bailey, the Reds fifth spot in the rotation will be better than last year, and definitely good enough.

[flash]

I think a dark horse could be Viola. He is starting right now in the AFL, and he is a lefthander.

[akron3344]

Ramirez is the answer

[redsfandan]

you can say IF we had this and IF we had that.... but we didn't. and that's that. but imo the reds still had a pretty good year considering how '08 went (corey patterson, harangs down year, the revolving door at short, the dunn/jr trades, all the rookies, ...). in spite of all that we actually gained a couple wins over '07, we now have some building blocks with experience in the majors, and it also set us up to be closer to contender status. so i really can't complain too much about '08.

as far as the 5th spot goes i'd prefer to leave it to the options we already have in house. i just believe it's better to leave the 5th spot open to prospects so when they're ready they're not stuck in AAA or pitching in relief. any pitcher that is projected as a starter should remain a starter if at all possible. when they have enough experience with no problems in the 5th spot you move them up to the 4th spot which leaves the 5th spot open again for the next prospect on the totem poll and so on and you keep the chain going. that's the way to go especially when you have budget limitations.

i also think our 5th starter options are better than a year ago. we still have the best of the players who filled the 5th spot in '08 in bailey, thompson, and ramirez and they're still 3 of our better pitcher prospects just with more experience now.
IIRC when owings was in the minors he was projected as a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. not an ace or a reliever but a solid #3 or #4. in '07 he went 8-8 in 152.2 ip with a 4.30 era 1.18 hrs/9 ip and a 1.28 whip which is pretty good for any rookie. also in the last 3 years owings started 45 of 51 games so wouldn't it make more sense to leave him him as a starter for now and see how he does? i wouldn't want to switch him to reliever unless it's permanent and that seems a little premature right now. to me the only question with him is his health and imo you have to place some faith in jocketty/kremchek to be on top of that. if he is healthy he's my #5 and pinchhitter.

all of our options are players that have been and still could be considered decent or better prospects. in the past we had retread veterans for not only the 5th spot but the 3rd and 4th too. that's an improvement. add in the other prospects like viola and we're in much better shape for once.

to me it's all about priorities and we don't need to spend our money on another starting pitcher. we need to spend it on an outfielder, a catcher, the bullpen, and sometime in the next 16 months we need to resolve who we'll have at short and 3rd. the only starting pitchers i'd consider now are ones who would take a minor league contract so they can provide depth but aren't in the way of any prospects. but i'm happy with what we have now and if we're lucky at some point maybe arroyo can help us obtain our shortstop of the future.