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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #9 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
11-02-2008, 07:22 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco

OnBaseMachine
11-02-2008, 07:30 PM
I'm gonna go with Juan Duran at #9. He's very, very young, but Duran has been described as being one of the best hitting prospects to ever come out of the Dominican Republic. That's very impressive when you look at all the great hitters to come from that island. He's probably five years from helping the Reds but his potential is so high it's enough for me to put him in the top ten. You don't find too many 16 years old described as having plus-plus power potential. And it's not like he's just a big slugger, some scouts have said he's athletic enough to play center field. While that's doubtful, the fact that scouts say that just goes to show how talented Duran is.

Mario-Rijo
11-02-2008, 07:56 PM
I'm gonna go with Juan Duran at #9. He's very, very young, but Duran has been described as being one of the best hitting prospects to ever come out of the Dominican Republic. That's very impressive when you look at all the great hitters to come from that island. He's probably five years from helping the Reds but his potential is so high it's enough for me to put him in the top ten. You don't find too many 16 years old described as having plus-plus power potential. And it's not like he's just a big slugger, some scouts have said he's athletic enough to play center field. While that's doubtful, the fact that scouts say that just goes to show how talented Duran is.

I can't do it and I just don't see how anyone can, no disrespect intended. I don't care how high a guys alledged ceiling is, he must show me what he is capable of at least before he get's on the radar. At 16 years old it's kind of difficult for him to show me anything yet. Neftali Soto had an OPS of .809 in the GCL at age 18, that got him on the radar. Can Duran show an OPS of .800 in the DSL at the age of 17? Perhaps but until he does he isn't even on the top ten radar at all for me. Then after he is on the radar he can maybe do what Soto did and improve his OPS at the next level and then doing something like playing at a level high for his age and not slowing down much if at all to get into top 5 consideration.

I wanted to vote Mesoraco here but I accidentally clicked on Dickerson apparentally because of the runoff.

kheidg-
11-02-2008, 08:17 PM
Should add Ryan Hanigan and Adam Rosales

OnBaseMachine
11-02-2008, 08:20 PM
Should add Ryan Hanigan and Adam Rosales

I'll add them on the next poll.

kheidg-
11-02-2008, 08:49 PM
I'll add them on the next poll.

Cool, not saying they'd win but I think they at least deserve consideration 10-20.

bubbachunk
11-02-2008, 08:50 PM
Been voting Duran since #4 and will keep it up til he gets it ;)

HokieRed
11-02-2008, 09:04 PM
I like Duran a lot but voted Dorn based on closeness to the majors. Time to add Evan Hildenbrandt in my view. I don't know how others feel about him but I'd rate him higher than at least half the current list.

Scrap Irony
11-02-2008, 09:27 PM
915

That's Dorn's minor league career OPS.

915 would lead the Reds in OPS by a wide, wide margin. And he plays LF.

His only problems are:
1) He's not a high enough draft pick to warrant extra attention
2) He's not RH

Dorn can help neither. All he can do is to continue to hit.

Here's betting he will do just that.

JayBruceFan
11-02-2008, 09:50 PM
Chris Heisey because of his combination of speed, power and hitting ability

REDblooded
11-02-2008, 10:33 PM
DuranDuran

cincyinco
11-02-2008, 11:45 PM
I know its not necessarily conventional thinking, but I went with Zach Stewart.

I like his combination of potential, ability to advance quickly, and his stuff and potential impact at the MLB level the most out of anyone on the list.

Ramon ramirez is closer and I considered him too, but I'm still not entirely sure what to make of him.

Dickerson also is solid, but I fear he is overrated by some here in the same mold as a Chris denorfia. I'm hoping he proves me wrong, I just have doubts I can't rid my self of.

I think Stewart has a high ceiling, the potential to advance rapidly, and a real ability to have an impact and be a difference maker.

*BaseClogger*
11-02-2008, 11:47 PM
I don't think Devin Mesoraco did anything in 2008 to hurt his value as a young catcher with a high ceiling...

Kc61
11-03-2008, 12:26 AM
After Duran here, it's time for the relievers. The Reds have a number of excellent relief prospects. I'd put Roenicke first since he is close the majors and will, in my view, mow them down throwing gas for a few years. Stewart is a less advanced candidate but also high up.

I see Fisher as more of a setup guy/middle man, but also deserves top fifteen mention.

I know there is debate about the order of these guys, but it's their time to be mentioned on this list. One of the strengths of the Reds system.

TRF
11-03-2008, 10:39 AM
All Dickerson has done in his minor league career is provide excellent defense at a key position and have an above average bat for that position.

And of course when he went to a higher level this past season, he was a dominant bat.

If his average OPS is 200 points lower than his first go around in the majors, he's likely one of the better CF's in the game. That may be rose colored glasses talking, but his OBP has always been pretty good, and I figure that will translate pretty well in the majors.

BRM
11-03-2008, 10:56 AM
All Dickerson has done in his minor league career is provide excellent defense at a key position and have an above average bat for that position.

And of course when he went to a higher level this past season, he was a dominant bat.

If his average OPS is 200 points lower than his first go around in the majors, he's likely one of the better CF's in the game. That may be rose colored glasses talking, but his OBP has always been pretty good, and I figure that will translate pretty well in the majors.

I hear you TRF. I love Chris Dickerson as well (although I didn't vote for him). I just think most folks are going to look past him simply due to his age. He's pretty much viewed as a finished product at this point and not many really look at him as a prospect.

fearofpopvol1
11-03-2008, 10:59 AM
915

That's Dorn's minor league career OPS.

915 would lead the Reds in OPS by a wide, wide margin. And he plays LF.

His only problems are:
1) He's not a high enough draft pick to warrant extra attention
2) He's not RH

Dorn can help neither. All he can do is to continue to hit.

Here's betting he will do just that.

Yep, he's got my vote. I just don't have enough info to really rank Duran yet. I know his ceiling is enormous...but it's still early for me. I feel that Dorn has shown the most of this bunch to me (outside of Dickerson who I don't really consider a prospect at this point).

BRM
11-03-2008, 11:03 AM
915

That's Dorn's minor league career OPS.

915 would lead the Reds in OPS by a wide, wide margin. And he plays LF.

His only problems are:
1) He's not a high enough draft pick to warrant extra attention
2) He's not RH

Dorn can help neither. All he can do is to continue to hit.

Here's betting he will do just that.

He's currently porjected to be a platoon leftfielder who plays average defense at best. I suspect that's what is hurting him in these votes.

TRF
11-03-2008, 11:29 AM
I hear you TRF. I love Chris Dickerson as well (although I didn't vote for him). I just think most folks are going to look past him simply due to his age. He's pretty much viewed as a finished product at this point and not many really look at him as a prospect.

yeah, it's the same knock I have against Stubbs, so I am applying a bit of a double standard. I see Stubbs with a similar skillset, with a little less power. I guess I do so due to draft position.

BRM
11-03-2008, 11:32 AM
yeah, it's the same knock I have against Stubbs, so I am applying a bit of a double standard. I see Stubbs with a similar skillset, with a little less power. I guess I do so due to draft position.

Stubbs "projects" to have more power though, doesn't he? Are they considered equals defensively?

TRF
11-03-2008, 11:38 AM
Stubbs had some power in college. He hasn't shown much since. Defensively from what I've read its just about a wash, though I think doug would no better than me on that.

dougdirt
11-03-2008, 11:49 AM
Stubbs "projects" to have more power though, doesn't he? Are they considered equals defensively?

Stubbs projects to have more power and his defense is a little bit better, although its pretty darn close. Stubbs also doesn't look like he is going to strike out as much as Dickerson has, which likely means a bit higher average as well.

TRF
11-03-2008, 12:41 PM
I think their K rates are very close to each other. Stubb's rate dropped a bit in 2008, but how much of that was sample in each league? His K rate at AAA was almost exactly the same as Dickerson's, maybe a tick under.

kpresidente
11-03-2008, 12:57 PM
Here's a bold prediction: The next 3 go Duran, Dickerson, and Dorn in that order.

OnBaseMachine
11-03-2008, 01:00 PM
Here's a bold prediction: The next 3 go Duran, Dickerson, and Dorn in that order.

That's how I plan on voting.

dougdirt
11-03-2008, 01:19 PM
I think their K rates are very close to each other. Stubb's rate dropped a bit in 2008, but how much of that was sample in each league? His K rate at AAA was almost exactly the same as Dickerson's, maybe a tick under.

Of course Dickerson is quite a bit older too. Stubbs was at 23.8%, Dickerson was at 24.8%. The previous season when Dickerson was 25 and in AAA his K% was 31.2%.

OnBaseMachine
11-03-2008, 01:24 PM
It's getting tough for me. As previously noted, I'll probably go with Dickerson at #10 and Danny Dorn #11. After that, I'm not sure. I wanna vote for Yorman Rodriguez somewhere in the top 15, but I also like the three relievers, Ramon Ramirez, and Mesoraco. We'll see. I think the system is pretty deep with solid prospects right now.

Orenda
11-03-2008, 01:36 PM
He's currently porjected to be a platoon leftfielder who plays average defense at best. I suspect that's what is hurting him in these votes.

This is where the projection people lose me. In one hand you have a guy like Dorn who was a late round draft pick who has done nothing but produce steadily and abundantly yet continues to fly under the radar. On the other hand you have a guy like Drew Stubbs who was a high pick who has shown contact issues and inconsistent power at an advanced age for his level, barring the final month and a half of the last season.

The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.

Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.

Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.

And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.

dougdirt
11-03-2008, 02:25 PM
This is where the projection people lose me. In one hand you have a guy like Dorn who was a late round draft pick who has done nothing but produce steadily and abundantly yet continues to fly under the radar. On the other hand you have a guy like Drew Stubbs who was a high pick who has shown contact issues and inconsistent power at an advanced age for his level, barring the final month and a half of the last season.

The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.

Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.

Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.

And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.
I don't think you will find anyone thats a bigger supporter of Danny Dorn than me, but here are a few things on why he isn't rated yet.

1. He plays a position very easy to fill at the major league level with a guy who can OPS .800.
2. He can't hit lefties at all. He shows plate discipline against them, which is good, but he has no power against them.
3. His defense isn't anything special and he isn't strong armed either.

Those are the three biggest things going against him. That said, I ranked him as my #9 guy in the system because even if he is just a platoon player, 400-450 PA of what he brings against right handed pitching is too hard to pass up.

Mario-Rijo
11-03-2008, 02:51 PM
This is where the projection people lose me. In one hand you have a guy like Dorn who was a late round draft pick who has done nothing but produce steadily and abundantly yet continues to fly under the radar. On the other hand you have a guy like Drew Stubbs who was a high pick who has shown contact issues and inconsistent power at an advanced age for his level, barring the final month and a half of the last season.

The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.

Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.

Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.

And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.

I don't have a problem whatsoever with Dorn. In fact I agree he's being overlooked for what reason I am not sure, but I think I have an idea. Perhaps it's got something to do with the fact that people may be a bit misinformed about him. I know I was, I just went ahead and assumed the worst when told he was a bad fielder who could only play LF and who couldn't hit vs. LHP's. As it turns out he does have a tough time vs. LHP's but what wasn't suggested is that he is still being disciplined and making no less contact against them than vs. RHP's but just isn't hitting them hard....yet.

I also hadn't realized that he had played quite a bit of 1st base this season where he was pretty solid in terms of errors (1) and he seemed to exhibit really nice (Votto-esque) range at the position, according to the #'s anyway. But I also learned that he has only had 3 errors in the OF in his minor league career. So perhaps he isn't as bad as advertised, and he definitely has the defensive versatility that I was previously unaware of until I went and looked harder myself recently.

IMO I definitely put him ahead of Duran and Francisco but I always did anyway. The question is do I move him ahead of a kid with a high ceiling that showed me something who plays at a premium position, (Mes). I probably should but Catcher is one of the 2 hardest positions to fill if not the hardest with a quality player which I still believe he is. And the fact that he is a catcher in itself makes him a more valuable prospect. Dorn IMO is a no doubt top 10 Reds prospect and a better one than people are giving him credit for. Mostly because they are relying on someone else to give them all the info and not looking closely into it themselves.

JayBruceFan
11-03-2008, 02:54 PM
I think this poll should end tonight with another one starting tonight or tomorrow

Duran is the clear winner of this one

OnBaseMachine
11-03-2008, 03:06 PM
The next poll will be open tomorrow evening.

BRM
11-03-2008, 03:07 PM
I voted for Dorn this round by the way. I like him quite a bit. As Doug said, he'll get 400+ plate appearances against right-handers even as a platoon guy and he mashes them. I just think most people will overlook any player who's "projected" to be a platoon guy when it comes to prospect lists.

Kc61
11-03-2008, 03:42 PM
I voted for Dorn this round by the way. I like him quite a bit. As Doug said, he'll get 400+ plate appearances against right-handers even as a platoon guy and he mashes them. I just think most people will overlook any player who's "projected" to be a platoon guy when it comes to prospect lists.

Can Dorn hit .280, with 25 homers and 75-80 RBIs as a National League outfielder playing against righty pitching (which means most of the time)?

If so, then I agree he should be listed around tenth on the list.

If not, then he really is a fourth outfielder, not a 400 AB platoon guy.

Teams need major offensive production from left field, not just "passable" offense.

I don't know the answer but this seems like the relevant question to me.

dougdirt
11-03-2008, 03:43 PM
Can Dorn hit .280, with 25 homers and 75-80 RBIs as a National League outfielder playing against righty pitching (which means most of the time)?

If so, then I agree he should be listed around tenth on the list.

If not, then he really is a fourth outfielder, not a 400 AB platoon guy.

Teams need major offensive production from left field, not just "passable" offense.

I don't know the answer but this seems like the relevant question to me.

I fully feel Dorn could hit 25-30 HR in a full major league season as soon as 2010 while showing a good ability to get on base as well.

Lockdwn11
11-03-2008, 05:19 PM
I voted for Dorn this round by the way. I like him quite a bit. As Doug said, he'll get 400+ plate appearances against right-handers even as a platoon guy and he mashes them. I just think most people will overlook any player who's "projected" to be a platoon guy when it comes to prospect lists.

Now hold on if Dorn gets on base just as much against left hander as he does right hander or close to it why should he NOT be an everyday player? We all know he crushes right hand pitching so why should he be 1/2 of a platoon?

BRM
11-03-2008, 05:26 PM
Now hold on if Dorn gets on base just as much against left hander as he does right hander or close to it why should he NOT be an everyday player? We all know he crushes right hand pitching so why should he be 1/2 of a platoon?

Well, so far he hasn't shown the ability to get on base "just as much against left handers". For his minor league career, he has an OBP of .332 against LHP and .403 against RHP.

dougdirt
11-03-2008, 05:29 PM
Now hold on if Dorn gets on base just as much against left hander as he does right hander or close to it why should he NOT be an everyday player? We all know he crushes right hand pitching so why should he be 1/2 of a platoon?

Thats not accurate thats why.

Dorn's career splits



Split AB H 2B 3B HR W IW HP K AVG OBP SLG OPS BABIP GB% LD% FB%
vs. LH 215 48 10 0 6 26 0 11 54 .223 .332 .353 .685 .271 42.4% 15.8% 41.2%
vs. RH 776 246 57 6 44 100 5 15 166 .317 .403 .576 .979 .357 34.7% 19.8% 45.3%

Lockdwn11
11-03-2008, 05:54 PM
Fair enough but this is only 215 AB so there is still a chance he could improve on those numbers and he wouldn't have to improve much to be an everyday player.

klw
11-03-2008, 06:19 PM
Duran is ahead in the popular vote but how is the electoral math playing out?

TRF
11-03-2008, 06:28 PM
I think Sam LeCure should be added to the next poll.

Scrap Irony
11-03-2008, 06:36 PM
Dorn-- 915 minor league OPS
Likely position: LF

Frazier-- 884 minor league OPS
Likely position: LF

Just sayin'.

SMcGavin
11-03-2008, 07:09 PM
Dorn-- 915 minor league OPS
Likely position: LF

Frazier-- 884 minor league OPS
Likely position: LF

Just sayin'.

It's a fair comparison, though I still have hope for Frazier sticking at 3B. Just goes to show how much draft position and hype matter on these lists. For example, if you switch the draft positions of Dorn and Stubbs, there is no way anybody puts Stubbs ahead of Dorn.

For the record, I still love Todd Frazier, and I've got him ahead of Dorn on my list. But I definitely have Dorn ranked higher than the Redszone aggregate will place him.

dougdirt
11-03-2008, 07:14 PM
Dorn-- 915 minor league OPS
Likely position: LF

Frazier-- 884 minor league OPS
Likely position: LF

Just sayin'.

Todd Frazier - 22 years old
Danny Dorn - 24 years old

Thats a fairly significant difference in the prospect world, especially when you want to compare stats.

Screwball
11-03-2008, 07:32 PM
Todd Frazier - 22 years old
Danny Dorn - 24 years old

Thats a fairly significant difference in the prospect world, especially when you want to compare stats.

Plus, Frazier hasn't gotten out of the two pitching leagues, yet: the MWL and the FSL. Dorn's numbers really jumped when he went from Sarasota to Chattanooga.

Redman15
11-03-2008, 07:38 PM
Plus, Frazier hasn't gotten out of the two pitching leagues, yet: the MWL and the FSL. Dorn's numbers really jumped when he went from Sarasota to Chattanooga.

Dorn skipped the MWL all together and still put up good power numbers in A+ and AA.

Screwball
11-03-2008, 07:55 PM
Dorn skipped the MWL all together and still put up good power numbers in A+ and AA.

All I'm saying is that Dorn's OPS while in Sarasota was ~.811 at 22 and 23 yrs. old. It's been ~.943 once he got to AA.

I'd rather wait to see how Frazier fares in less of a hitter's league himself before I compare their respective OPSes.

SMcGavin
11-03-2008, 08:09 PM
Todd Frazier - 22 years old
Danny Dorn - 24 years old

Thats a fairly significant difference in the prospect world, especially when you want to compare stats.

Frazier, age 21, Billings: .319/.409/.513 - .922 OPS
Dorn, age 21/22, Billings: .354/.457/.573 - 1.030 OPS

No comparison in Dayton since Dorn skipped that level.

Frazier, age 22, Sarasota: .281/.357/.451 - .808 OPS
Dorn, age 22/23, Sarasota: .281/.359/.456 - .815 OPS

If you want to dock Dorn because he was six months older than Frazier was when they went through the same levels, that's up to you.

kpresidente
11-03-2008, 08:15 PM
Todd Frazier - 22 years old
Danny Dorn - 24 years old

Thats a fairly significant difference in the prospect world, especially when you want to compare stats.


Of course, you can just compare them at the same age


Frazier - Ages 21-22
RK .409|.513|.922
A .397|.619|1.016
A+ .357|.451|.808

Dorn - Ages 21-22
RK .457|.573|1.030
A+ .355|.458|.813

Votto - Ages 21-22
A+ .330|.425|.755
AA .408|.547|.955


You can see that neither was as advanced as Votto was. It's interesting to see how the FSL kills your numbers. What's even more interesting is that Jay Bruce blasted a .965 there and he was only 20.

Betterread
11-03-2008, 09:27 PM
After Duran here, it's time for the relievers. The Reds have a number of excellent relief prospects. I'd put Roenicke first since he is close the majors and will, in my view, mow them down throwing gas for a few years. Stewart is a less advanced candidate but also high up.

I see Fisher as more of a setup guy/middle man, but also deserves top fifteen mention.

I know there is debate about the order of these guys, but it's their time to be mentioned on this list. One of the strengths of the Reds system.

I agree. I will add that I see all 3 as safe bets to be in the majors in 2009 for Roenicke and Fisher, and 2010 for Stewart. And they should be higher than Dickerson and Dorn because those guys are safe bets as projected as OF reserves, not regulars. Dickerson does not have the bat to stick in the lineup and Dorn is very weak vrs. lefties and is a defensive liability in LF.

Orenda
11-03-2008, 10:28 PM
I agree. I will add that I see all 3 as safe bets to be in the majors in 2009 for Roenicke and Fisher, and 2010 for Stewart. And they should be higher than Dickerson and Dorn because those guys are safe bets as projected as OF reserves, not regulars. Dickerson does not have the bat to stick in the lineup and Dorn is very weak vrs. lefties and is a defensive liability in LF.

I disagree, but I still like those guys. I'm beginning to feel like some of the guys are going to be undervalued by their prospect ranking because of the strength of the system. Does any one else feel this way? I see about 15 guys who would be top 10 prospects and than a few more who could get consideration in a lot of systems. Am I giving the the farm too much credit?

Screwball
11-04-2008, 06:31 AM
All I'm saying is that Dorn's OPS while in Sarasota was ~.811 at 22 and 23 yrs. old. It's been ~.943 once he got to AA.

I'd rather wait to see how Frazier fares in less of a hitter's league himself before I compare their respective OPSes.

I meant to say I want to see how Frazier fares in more of a hitter's league, which is only the direct opposite of what I stated above. :)

TRF
11-04-2008, 11:54 AM
Of course, you can just compare them at the same age


Frazier - Ages 21-22
RK .409|.513|.922
A .397|.619|1.016
A+ .357|.451|.808

Dorn - Ages 21-22
RK .457|.573|1.030
A+ .355|.458|.813

Votto - Ages 21-22
A+ .330|.425|.755
AA .408|.547|.955
You can see that neither was as advanced as Votto was. It's interesting to see how the FSL kills your numbers. What's even more interesting is that Jay Bruce blasted a .965 there and he was only 20.
Wasn't Votto under the take a pitch rule DanO came up with while he was in Sarasota?

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 12:11 PM
Wasn't Votto under the take a pitch rule DanO came up with while he was in Sarasota?

Yes he was. He was one of the biggest complainers publicly about that rule and how it completely ruined what you were attempting to do at the plate.

*BaseClogger*
11-04-2008, 04:14 PM
I'm quite surprised by the lack of voting for Devin Mesoraco. He was ranked #10 on RZ last year, and he didn't do anything in 2008 to hurt his stock IMO...

BRM
11-04-2008, 04:19 PM
I'm quite surprised by the lack of voting for Devin Mesoraco. He was ranked #10 on RZ last year, and he didn't do anything in 2008 to hurt his stock IMO...

Seems to me there were reports deriding his defense this past summer. Doug may be able to shed some light on why Mesoraco's stock has fallen a bit.

WMR
11-04-2008, 04:25 PM
I'm quite surprised by the lack of voting for Devin Mesoraco. He was ranked #10 on RZ last year, and he didn't do anything in 2008 to hurt his stock IMO...

I think it's a combination of heightened excitement for other prospects and the fact that Mesoraco didn't blow up and go crazy.

JayBruceFan
11-04-2008, 05:03 PM
I think it's a combination of heightened excitement for other prospects and the fact that Mesoraco didn't blow up and go crazy.

Mesoraco did smack some guys around in the brawl with Peoria

:D

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 05:18 PM
Seems to me there were reports deriding his defense this past summer. Doug may be able to shed some light on why Mesoraco's stock has fallen a bit.

If his stock has fallen in some eyes I think its because they expect a catcher to progress at the same rate as other positions, and that just doesn't happen with an occasional rare exception.

klw
11-04-2008, 05:27 PM
Is a change from 10 to 13/14 really a significant drop? It would seem that there has been other guys who have progressed faster, been added to the system, etc that have nudged him down. He is in a stage where the new prospect smell has rubbed off a bit so he lacks the buzz of Yonder Yorman and Duran but hasn't shown himself at the higher levels like Thompson, Dickerson and Ramirez. There are a lot of talented guys in the 5 to 15 range and I have no idea really where to put them other than by gut and gut is sometimes swayed by excitement rather than head.

*BaseClogger*
11-04-2008, 05:32 PM
Still, there is no way a 27 year old like Chris Dickerson should get voted over Devin Mesoraco IMO...

WMR
11-04-2008, 05:33 PM
Still, there is no way a 27 year old like Chris Dickerson should get voted over Devin Mesoraco IMO...

That's why they play the game... err... that's why they vote in the polls. :D

BRM
11-04-2008, 05:36 PM
Still, there is no way a 27 year old like Chris Dickerson should get voted over Devin Mesoraco IMO...

Maybe the people voting that way don't feel Mesoraco will ever suit up for an MLB squad.

AmarilloRed
11-04-2008, 05:43 PM
Still, there is no way a 27 year old like Chris Dickerson should get voted over Devin Mesoraco IMO...

Dickerson is only 26, not 27. He won't be 27 until April. I don't think he is too old to be considered a legitimate prospect, and he has performed on the major league level.

Mario-Rijo
11-04-2008, 06:17 PM
Still, there is no way a 27 year old like Chris Dickerson should get voted over Devin Mesoraco IMO...

That's sort of the way I feel about a 16 yr old being voted over him, except the only difference is that 26 year old is looking like a solid lock to stay on and be a fair piece of the puzzle to a 25 man roster from here on out.

But I am arguing for Dickerson when even though I voted him I actually was meaning to vote for Mes as I did on the previous vote until the run-off. I just have a hard time voting a guy a prospect who IMO no longer is, he's now a major leaguer or bust. And I see him as a major leaguer, otherwise I would have continued to vote for him.

TRF
11-04-2008, 07:01 PM
But I am arguing for Dickerson when even though I voted him I actually was meaning to vote for Mes as I did on the previous vote until the run-off. I just have a hard time voting a guy a prospect who IMO no longer is, he's now a major leaguer or bust. And I see him as a major leaguer, otherwise I would have continued to vote for him.

That's a pretty good argument. I think the criteria for this list is ROY eligibility. Dickerson qualifies, so he's in.

Mario-Rijo
11-04-2008, 08:05 PM
That's a pretty good argument. I think the criteria for this list is ROY eligibility. Dickerson qualifies, so he's in.

Yeah I know but it's still tough to do. But FWIW If I'm making out my own prospect list I still add him and somewhere in the top ten. Look at it like this by the time we find out if he can stick or not he will likely no longer have his eligibility. So in essence that technically makes him a prospect unless you already feel he can stick to the 25 man (just in what capacity is the only remaining question IMO) and I do so in my mind he no longer is one. I guess what I would argue is that despite no longer being eligible for R.O.Y Bailey is still just a prospect and Dickerson shouldn't be. So we should re-consider what makes a player a "prospect" and too me that's someone who is still a prospective major leaguer (some moreso than others) not someone who is already a major leaguer with little to no chance to ever be prospective again. Maybe next off-season we can address this issue before starting the voting.

But since he technically is I would list him something like so.


1 - Soto
2 - Frazier
3 - Alonso
4 - Bailey (I know but he's still a prospect to me)
5 - Lotzkar
6 - Valaika
7 - Mesoraco
8 - Dickerson/Dorn
9 - Dorn/Dickerson
10 - Thompson

But my list is always fluid and therefore ever changing.

camisadelgolf
11-04-2008, 09:13 PM
I'm quite surprised by the lack of voting for Devin Mesoraco. He was ranked #10 on RZ last year, and he didn't do anything in 2008 to hurt his stock IMO...

I've been voting on Duran since #2. I'll go with Mesoraco for #10 (although he'd be higher on my personal list).

Mario-Rijo
11-05-2008, 02:41 AM
Yeah I know but it's still tough to do. But FWIW If I'm making out my own prospect list I still add him and somewhere in the top ten. Look at it like this by the time we find out if he can stick or not he will likely no longer have his eligibility. So in essence that technically makes him a prospect unless you already feel he can stick to the 25 man (just in what capacity is the only remaining question IMO) and I do so in my mind he no longer is one. I guess what I would argue is that despite no longer being eligible for R.O.Y Bailey is still just a prospect and Dickerson shouldn't be. So we should re-consider what makes a player a "prospect" and too me that's someone who is still a prospective major leaguer (some moreso than others) not someone who is already a major leaguer with little to no chance to ever be prospective again. Maybe next off-season we can address this issue before starting the voting.

But since he technically is I would list him something like so.


1 - Soto
2 - Frazier
3 - Alonso
4 - Bailey (I know but he's still a prospect to me)
5 - Lotzkar
6 - Stubbs
7 - Valaika
8 - Mes
9 - Dickerson
10 - Dorn
11 - Thompson (Move everyone up if you take away Bailey)

But my list is always fluid and therefore ever changing.

Whoops I forgot someone completely.