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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
11-04-2008, 07:25 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran

OnBaseMachine
11-04-2008, 07:34 PM
I went with Chris Dickerson. He's a little older than your normal prospect but he's a plus defender in center, he's got great on-base skills, and his power showed signs of development in 2008. He's got a chance at turning himself into an above average major league center fielder IMO. I considered Dorn here but I'll go with him at #11.

HokieRed
11-04-2008, 07:39 PM
Voted Dorn again. I don't see why Hildenbrandt isn't on the list, as a starter with a higher ceiling than any starter on the list (with possible exception of Viola if he remains a starter).

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 07:42 PM
Went with Mesoraco again. He has the tools and athleticism to be good behind the plate, its just going to take him a little time like it does with nearly all catchers.

OnBaseMachine
11-04-2008, 07:47 PM
Voted Dorn again. I don't see why Hildenbrandt isn't on the list, as a starter with a higher ceiling than any starter on the list (with possible exception of Viola if he remains a starter).

I'll add him on the next poll.

mace
11-04-2008, 07:57 PM
I've been voting a lot of Dickerson, and like him considerably, but it's awfully tough to compare a 26-year-old with, say, a 16-year-old. So I settled upon a clearer way to make the call: Which player would you be least willing to include in a trade? By that standard, I went with Yorman Rodriguez.

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 08:06 PM
Last year, Redszone ranked Matt Maloney #7 on this list. His work leading up to that vote:

Maloney 2007 AA: 9.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

Then, he moved up to AAA this year, and did this:

Maloney 2008 AAA: 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

And he is getting pretty much zero votes at this point. At this rate he could be around into the 20s.

So what happened to make people turn on Maloney so quickly? Three possibilities:

1. Maloney's performance in 2008 was a lot worse than his track record, causing people to downgrade him as a prospect. (not likely since he was pretty similar to his career #s. if someone doesn't like him because he's a soft tosser, they wouldn't have liked him last year either)
2. The Reds had a ton of prospects who had great years in 2008, causing them to skyrocket past Maloney on the prospect chart. (maybe a little truth to this, but doubtful it would cause him to drop 10-15 spots)
3. People base their opinions largely on hype - last offseason Maloney was coming off of three really good starts at the end of the year in Louisville. This year he had a not so good ERA, so the hype around him is gone.

You can probably guess which of the three I think happened.

OnBaseMachine
11-04-2008, 08:21 PM
1. Maloney's performance in 2008 was a lot worse than his track record, causing people to downgrade him as a prospect. (not likely since he was pretty similar to his career #s. if someone doesn't like him because he's a soft tosser, they wouldn't have liked him last year either)
2. The Reds had a ton of prospects who had great years in 2008, causing them to skyrocket past Maloney on the prospect chart. (maybe a little truth to this, but doubtful it would cause him to drop 10-15 spots)
3. People base their opinions largely on hype - last offseason Maloney was coming off of three really good starts at the end of the year in Louisville. This year he had a not so good ERA, so the hype around him is gone.

You can probably guess which of the three I think happened.

For me, it's #2. If you look at my post history, you'll see I'm a pretty big fan of Matt Maloney. I've always said I think he could develop into a fine innings eating #4 starter. But back to the main point, the reason I dropped him is because of the development of other prospects like Soto and Thompson and the new arrivals of others like Alonso and Duran. I figure I'll vote for him somewhere around 15-20.

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 08:21 PM
Last year, Redszone ranked Matt Maloney #7 on this list. His work leading up to that vote:

Maloney 2007 AA: 9.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

Then, he moved up to AAA this year, and did this:

Maloney 2008 AAA: 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9

And he is getting pretty much zero votes at this point. At this rate he could be around into the 20s.

So what happened to make people turn on Maloney so quickly? Three possibilities:

1. Maloney's performance in 2008 was a lot worse than his track record, causing people to downgrade him as a prospect. (not likely since he was pretty similar to his career #s. if someone doesn't like him because he's a soft tosser, they wouldn't have liked him last year either)
2. The Reds had a ton of prospects who had great years in 2008, causing them to skyrocket past Maloney on the prospect chart. (maybe a little truth to this, but doubtful it would cause him to drop 10-15 spots)
3. People base their opinions largely on hype - last offseason Maloney was coming off of three really good starts at the end of the year in Louisville. This year he had a not so good ERA, so the hype around him is gone.

You can probably guess which of the three I think happened.

Personally, I was never high on Maloney. Last year I ranked him as my #19 prospect and this year my #29 prospect. I just don't simply see him as an overly good prospect. He is a fly ball pitcher with an average at best fastball and after watching him a lot last year, he works up in the zone with his fastball a lot which doesn't bode well in my eyes.

Orenda
11-04-2008, 08:22 PM
Does anybody know how deep the draft class is projected to be next year? This system could definitely use an infusion of starters.

Mario-Rijo
11-04-2008, 08:30 PM
For me, it's #2. If you look at my post history, you'll see I'm a pretty big fan of Matt Maloney. I've always said I think he could develop into a fine innings eating #4 starter. But back to the main point, the reason I dropped him is because of the development of other prospects like Soto and Thompson and the new arrivals of others like Alonso and Duran. I figure I'll vote for him around 15-17.

I'd 2nd this. Maloney I think can be a decent 4 or most likely 5. But his tumble has less to do with him and a whole lot more to do with more talented guys passing him. Like OBM pointed out Soto, Thompson and Alonso additions to the top ten put him lower.

But I'll go one more for ya last off-season (when we voted) he was a Double A pitcher going to AAA. This season he was a solid contributor at AAA who never got a look at the big league level despite the need for someone to take that #5 spot and run with it. The fact that they never gave him that look tells me that they have serious reservations at best about him. Which is enough to take some of that shine off, which was helping him get consideration last off-season.

JayBruceFan
11-04-2008, 09:41 PM
I don't trust Dickerson's health

He has had something like 4-5 surgeries on his shoulder and legs already

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 09:55 PM
Personally, I was never high on Maloney. Last year I ranked him as my #19 prospect and this year my #29 prospect. I just don't simply see him as an overly good prospect. He is a fly ball pitcher with an average at best fastball and after watching him a lot last year, he works up in the zone with his fastball a lot which doesn't bode well in my eyes.

We've been over this many times... and I've corrected you on the "extreme flyball pitcher" thing at least twice. I guess you have toned it down to just "flyball pitcher", which is a start. Anyway that's not the point. Not liking Maloney's stuff would cause you to vote Maloney equally low both last year and this year.

Virtually nothing about Maloney has changed from what he was last year. If you didn't like him last year you probably still don't. What I'm pointing out are the people who liked him last year but don't anymore - why is that happening?

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 10:03 PM
For me, it's #2. If you look at my post history, you'll see I'm a pretty big fan of Matt Maloney. I've always said I think he could develop into a fine innings eating #4 starter. But back to the main point, the reason I dropped him is because of the development of other prospects like Soto and Thompson and the new arrivals of others like Alonso and Duran. I figure I'll vote for him somewhere around 15-20.

The top four from last year's vote have graduated, the only ones back who were higher than Maloney last year are Frazier and Stubbs. So voting him 15-20 means you think around 15 other prospects jumped him this season. Certainly that is up to you, just pointing out that it's not just the fast risers passing Maloney. It's half the system.

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 10:11 PM
But I'll go one more for ya last off-season (when we voted) he was a Double A pitcher going to AAA. This season he was a solid contributor at AAA who never got a look at the big league level despite the need for someone to take that #5 spot and run with it. The fact that they never gave him that look tells me that they have serious reservations at best about him. Which is enough to take some of that shine off, which was helping him get consideration last off-season.

I think that's a fair point and I would file it into the "hype" category. I suppose we will see this year what the Reds FO does think of him, I'd imagine at some point they will have to either give him a shot or trade him. His value will keep dropping the longer they let him sit in AAA.

Mario-Rijo
11-04-2008, 10:14 PM
We've been over this many times... and I've corrected you on the "extreme flyball pitcher" thing at least twice. I guess you have toned it down to just "flyball pitcher", which is a start. Anyway that's not the point. Not liking Maloney's stuff would cause you to vote Maloney equally low both last year and this year.

Virtually nothing about Maloney has changed from what he was last year. If you didn't like him last year you probably still don't. What I'm pointing out are the people who liked him last year but don't anymore - why is that happening?

I recall you correcting him on that Shooter but I never understood your argument then. If more than 50% of his balls hit are in the air how can he not be a flyball pitcher? He's never had more than a 42% ground ball % since he left single A when it was 48% for 1 season? So if 42% of his balls hit are on the ground then that means the other 58% are in the air.

Highlifeman21
11-04-2008, 10:19 PM
With Duran gone (finally), I guess it's time for me to jump onboard the Danny Dorn train.

OnBaseMachine
11-04-2008, 10:22 PM
The top four from last year's vote have graduated, the only ones back who were higher than Maloney last year are Frazier and Stubbs. So voting him 15-20 means you think around 15 other prospects jumped him this season. Certainly that is up to you, just pointing out that it's not just the fast risers passing Maloney. It's half the system.

I didn't vote for Matt Maloney at #7 last year. IIRC I had him just outside the top ten.

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 10:23 PM
I recall you correcting him on that Shooter but I never understood your argument then. If more than 50% of his balls hit are in the air how can he not be a flyball pitcher? He's never had more than a 42% ground ball % since he left single A when it was 48% for 1 season? So if 42% of his balls hit are on the ground then that means the other 58% are in the air.

50% is the wrong cutoff. If you use that, the vast majority of MLB pitchers would be "flyball pitchers". The average GB% is 43-44%. Matt Maloney, for his career, is at 42.1%. If you want to make it a 50/50 thing where every pitcher has to be categorized as a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher, you can categorize Maloney as a fly ball guy. I tend to look at it more like this:

Below 39: Fly ball pitcher.
39-47: Neutral.
Above 47: Ground ball pitcher.

These are a bit arbitary, but Maloney is safely inside of any kind of neutral category you want to make. He is almost exactly on the average for GB%. I mean, if he was at 45% instead of 42%, would we be calling him a ground ball pitcher? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Mario-Rijo
11-04-2008, 10:24 PM
I think that's a fair point and I would file it into the "hype" category. I suppose we will see this year what the Reds FO does think of him, I'd imagine at some point they will have to either give him a shot or trade him. His value will keep dropping the longer they let him sit in AAA.

Yeah I suppose you could file that into hype to some extent. But we are limited in what we know about a player and unless we have good reason to knock a guy we only have his production to go off of. You could technically call that hype or you could call it acquiring more information and therefore slotting him accordingly. It's a fluid artform, evaluating prospects.

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 10:26 PM
A majority of the pitchers in baseball are flyball pitchers. That doesn't change the definition though. If you allow more grounders than fly balls, you are a groundball pitcher. If you allow more flyballs than grounders, you are a flyball pitcher. Maloney allows about 16% more flyballs than groundballs. He is a flyball pitcher.

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 10:31 PM
A majority of the pitchers in baseball are flyball pitchers. That doesn't change the definition though. If you allow more grounders than fly balls, you are a groundball pitcher. If you allow more flyballs than grounders, you are a flyball pitcher.

You're attempting to take a useful stat that compares a player to his peers and change it into something that tells you nothing. Congratulations.

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 10:33 PM
I didn't vote for Matt Maloney at #7 last year. IIRC I had him just outside the top ten.

Gotcha, that makes sense. I was really talking about the board as a whole, not trying to single you out.

Mario-Rijo
11-04-2008, 10:34 PM
50% is the wrong cutoff. If you use that, the vast majority of MLB pitchers would be "flyball pitchers". The average GB% is 43-44%. Matt Maloney, for his career, is at 42.1%. If you want to make it a 50/50 thing where every pitcher has to be categorized as a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher, you can categorize Maloney as a fly ball guy. I tend to look at it more like this:

Below 39: Fly ball pitcher.
39-47: Neutral.
Above 47: Ground ball pitcher.

These are a bit arbitary, but Maloney is safely inside of any kind of neutral category you want to make. He is almost exactly on the average for GB%. I mean, if he was at 45% instead of 42%, would we be calling him a ground ball pitcher? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I guess I can see that approach. But once he goes to the next level how far does that # drop? I've always heard that going from A to AA is the biggest jump except for going from AAA to the pros. If that's the case I'd say it's not out of the question that his 6% drop from A to AA could make him a candidate for a drop going from AAA to MLB. If he drops just half of what he did before he would be right in that flyball category you speak of.

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 11:02 PM
You're attempting to take a useful stat that compares a player to his peers and change it into something that tells you nothing. Congratulations.

Looking at the top 50 pitchers by innings in the International League, Matt Maloney ranks 41st in non groundballs. He is a a flyball pitcher.

SMcGavin
11-04-2008, 11:23 PM
I guess I can see that approach. But once he goes to the next level how far does that # drop? I've always heard that going from A to AA is the biggest jump except for going from AAA to the pros. If that's the case I'd say it's not out of the question that his 6% drop from A to AA could make him a candidate for a drop going from AAA to MLB. If he drops just half of what he did before he would be right in that flyball category you speak of.

OK. After a google search, I am lifting the following from sonsofsamhorn. The data is from late in the 2006 season.


League Level K/9 GB% LD% FB%
northwest A-SS 7.57 47.82 13.38 28.78
nypl A-SS 7.47 48.71 14.24 26.88
midwest A 7.44 47.18 12.61 30.11
southatlantic A 7.54 48.05 13.82 28.87
california A-Adv 7.62 45.65 12.72 32.21
carolina A-Adv 6.92 45.57 11.47 32.58
floridastate A-Adv 7.46 46.50 12.78 30.80
southern AA 7.57 45.69 15.52 28.31
texas AA 7.01 44.85 16.08 29.69
eastern AA 7.37 45.58 12.79 31.48
international AAA 6.94 45.11 16.94 27.60
pacificcoast AAA 7.02 44.58 16.25 29.30

I have actually looked for this data before and never found it, so thanks for asking. To generalize, it looks like GB rates drop roughly 1 point for every level you advance. And the International League numbers are about 1.5% higher than the major league average.

I would caution against putting a lot of weight in minor fluctuations of GB% from year to year - even established major league pitchers see this happen.

Betterread
11-05-2008, 12:18 AM
I am really surprised at the rating of Dickerson. He has written a nice story of tenacity and effort, but he is what he is. He has been in the minors for 6 years for displaying the same weaknesses: he strikes out 33% of the time, he can't hit lefthanding pitching, and he can't maintain a short swing - when he goes on a HR streak, it gets long and he goes into a dismal slump. Each year this has happened. The only difference I can see is that he hit 6 HRs for the ML team in 100 ABs last year. I think he deserves a shot to make the Reds in spring training but if he wins a starting OF job - it means the Reds are giving up on the season instead of pursuing a legitimate CFer.

Kc61
11-05-2008, 01:46 AM
Sometime in the next couple of years, Josh Roenicke will become a more polished, experienced, confident pitcher. He will then become a dominating late inning reliever for several years. He will be extremely hard to hit and will mow down the opposition.

I'm not sure he will have a very long career because he is so dependent on a dominant fastball. But if he hits his stride when the Reds are coming together as a team, I can see Roenicke -- for a few years -- playing the role that Dibble played on the 1990 team.

Guess who I voted for.

RED VAN HOT
11-05-2008, 01:58 AM
I have not given up on Maloney. I think the Reds had high expectations for Maloney this year, but he had a disastrous spring training. IIRC, he had two brutal starts. I recall that early on Dusty was complimentary concerning MM's fearlessness in pitching inside (unlike many other LHP.s). That can be problematic, though at the ML level if the pitch is not a plus pitch.

After a poor start at AAA, his numbers improved fairly dramatically over the second half. His HR's per nine however, were still among the highest on the staff. Shearn was slightly higher and Macbeth was much higher. HR/9 can be expected to increase at the ML level. Add to that fly ball tendencies and he does not currently project well. I concluded that he might still be a good starter if, like many LHP's, he could develop a pitch that breaks down and away (screwball) or sharply down and in (slider) to RH batters. It seems unlikely that he could find the extra speed to make an inside fastball effective.

I saw in another thread that MM planned to pitch winter ball. My guess is that he is working on this specific problem. I expect him to get at least one start in early March. We might know more then. Until then, I would be reluctant to rate him a top prospect.

I didn't vote last year. I admit, however, that I would have rated him higher then. Sometimes higher levels do expose weaknesses that require a little more work to correct.

fearofpopvol1
11-05-2008, 12:14 PM
Dorn would be my choice (for the 2nd time here)

OnBaseMachine
11-05-2008, 12:34 PM
Baseball America started revealing their top 10 prospects list today starting with the Orioles. Don't get too excited though, the Reds top ten list won't be out until January 14th. By that time, Spring Training will only be a month away.

BRM
11-05-2008, 12:35 PM
I went with Dorn again.

nemesis
11-05-2008, 03:21 PM
I went with Dorn as well. Even with his sever splits he could be a very viable ML LF in GABP. Him and Francisco are our only 2 developed power threats currently with Waring, Logan and Brown in the tubes. If Phillips can play everyday with similar style splits to Dorn, why couldn't a guy with 30 - 40 HR potential take his lumps against a few limited quality LH in the NL.

OnBaseMachine
11-05-2008, 08:41 PM
Ben (Centerville, OH): The Reds rotation is pretty set 1-4 (Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo), but who do you see emrging as the 5th starter for the Reds out of: Micah Owings, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramierez, and Matt Maloney?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:26 PM ET ) I'd still give Bailey every opportunity. If it's not him, wouldn't surprise me if Matt Maloney snuck in there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2008/267142.html

Mario-Rijo
11-05-2008, 09:38 PM
Ben (Centerville, OH): The Reds rotation is pretty set 1-4 (Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo), but who do you see emrging as the 5th starter for the Reds out of: Micah Owings, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramierez, and Matt Maloney?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:26 PM ET ) I'd still give Bailey every opportunity. If it's not him, wouldn't surprise me if Matt Maloney snuck in there.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2008/267142.html

Who is this Ben guy? Is that you OBM? That dude seems like he is straight off of RZ for sure.

OnBaseMachine
11-05-2008, 10:25 PM
Who is this Ben guy? Is that you OBM? That dude seems like he is straight off of RZ for sure.

Nope. I'm Brandon from Charleston.

OnBaseMachine
11-06-2008, 12:07 AM
I think I may add Dallas Buck to the next poll. He's sort of the forgotten man but he could make a huge jump on these lists next year if he regains the velocity he lost from Tommy John surgery. His changeup and slider are already quality pitches and his fastball has great sink. If he can regain his low-90's fastball he's got a chance at developing into a top-of-rotation caliber starter IMO.

Mario-Rijo
11-06-2008, 03:49 PM
Nope. I'm Brandon from Charleston.

OK, LOL

Mario-Rijo
11-06-2008, 03:50 PM
I think I may add Dallas Buck to the next poll. He's sort of the forgotten man but he could make a huge jump on these lists next year if he regains the velocity he lost from Tommy John surgery. His changeup and slider are already quality pitches and his fastball has great sink. If he can regain his low-90's fastball he's got a chance at developing into a top-of-rotation caliber starter IMO.

W/ TJS he might retain that and then some.

redsfandan
11-06-2008, 07:19 PM
a buck rebound would definitely make the dunn trade look better.

can some people (doug, obm, mario, etc, ..) give your take on eta's for the top 10?

OnBaseMachine
11-06-2008, 07:23 PM
a buck rebound would definitely make the dunn trade look better.

can some people (doug, obm, mario, etc, ..) give your take on eta's for the top 10?

Alonso - late 2009, early 2010
Frazier - late 2009, early 2010
Soto - mid 2011
Stubbs - late 2009
Valaika - late 2009 to mid 2010
Lotzkar - 2012
Thompson - 2009
Francisco - 2011
Duran - 2014
Dickerson - now

Mario-Rijo
11-07-2008, 02:50 AM
Alonso - late 2009, early 2010
Frazier - late 2009, early 2010
Soto - mid 2011
Stubbs - late 2009
Valaika - late 2009 to mid 2010
Lotzkar - 2012
Thompson - 2009
Francisco - 2011
Duran - 2014
Dickerson - now

Of RZ's top 10 yes that's probably about what I would say also. Although I am starting to again wonder if Stubbs may not make it up until '10 at the earliest at this point. And Francisco late in '11 if at all, '09 in AA will tell alot about him IMO. But i'll add a couple of more guys who I think should be in the top ten.

Dorn - mid to late '09
Mes - mid-late '12

camisadelgolf
11-07-2008, 10:15 AM
can some people (doug, obm, mario, etc, ..) give your take on eta's for the top 10?

I'll take a stab at it, even though I'm nowhere near as esteemed as the three guys you mentioned by name.

If by 'arrived', you mean up in the Majors for good, here are my (conservative?) estimations:
Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso - 2011
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier - 2010
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto - 2012
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs - 2010
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika - 2010
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar - 2012
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson - 2010
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco - 2012
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran - 2014
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson - 2009