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*BaseClogger*
11-04-2008, 10:55 PM
I thought it would be a good idea to have a thread where everybody can put their prospect lists for future reference. This way, we can compare how we saw prospects from one year to another when we do our community vote:

BaseClogger's 2009 Top 40
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Kyle Lotzkar
3. Neftali Soto
4. Todd Frazier
5. Devin Mesoraco
6. Juan Duran
7. Daryl Thompson
8. Danny Dorn
9. Juan Francisco
10. Chris Valaika
11. Ramon Ramirez
12. Chris Dickerson
13. Zach Stewart
14. Yorman Rodriguez
15. Josh Roenicke
16. Drew Stubbs
17. Ryan Hanigan
18. Matt Maloney
19. Zach Cozart
20. Travis Wood
21. Jeremy Horst
22. Carlos Fisher
23. Adam Rosales
24. Pedro Viola
25. Robert Manuel
26. Dallas Buck
27. Justin Turner
28. Jordan Smith
29. Sam Lecure
30. Evan Hildenbrandt
31. Juan Carlos Sulbaran
32. Shaun Cumberland
33. Brandon Waring
34. Danny Herrera
35. Sean Henry
36. Chris Heisey
37. Sean Watson
38. Scott Carrol
39. Tonys Gutierrez
40. Alex Buchholz

dougdirt
11-04-2008, 11:08 PM
My Top 40 Prospects

1.Yonder Alonso
2.Neftali Soto
3.Drew Stubbs
4.Todd Frazier
5.Chris Valaika
6.Devin Mesoraco
7.Kyle Lotzkar
8.Zach Stewart
9.Danny Dorn
10.Juan Francisco
11.Juan Duran
12.Daryl Thompson
13.Carlos Fisher
14.Josh Roenicke
15.Zach Cozart
16.Yorman Rodriguez
17.Ramon Ramirez
18.Chris Dickerson
19.Adam Rosales
20.Ryan Hanigan
21.Pedro Viola
22.Justin Turner
23.Chris Heisey
24.Jeremy Horst
25.Alex Buchholz
26.Robert Manuel
27.Evan Hildenbrandt
28.Travis Wood
29.Matt Maloney
30.Scott Carroll
31.Philippe Valiquette
32.Sam Lecure
33.Dallas Buck
34.Jordan Smith
35.Shaun Cumberland
36.Juan Carlos Sulbaran
37.Sean Watson
38.Sean Henry
39.Brandon Waring
40.Ramon Geronimo

Mario-Rijo
11-05-2008, 03:21 AM
I'll say this before I put my top 40, I may tweak it up until they begin play. Probably not so much the top 10-15 but I found last year that I learned a few things about some of the later guys last season while we were doing these rankings that vaulted guys a few spots or dropped them a few.

But I'm sure every one of us tweak it here and there. I would put Homer at 4 assuming he was R.O.Y eligible. But since I know not many will include him I'll just address this here and not on the list. I also added a few more just for fun.

1 - Soto
2 - Frazier
3 - Alonso
4 - Lotzkar
5 - Valaika
6 - Stubbs
7 - Mesoraco
8 - Dickerson
9 - Dorn
10 - Thompson
11 - Stewart
12 - Ramirez
13 - Fisher
14 - Roenicke
15 - Rosales
16 - Henry
17 - Maloney
18 - Cozart
19 - Bucholz
20 - Francisco
21 - Wood
22 - Duran
23 - Rodriguez
24 - Hanigan
25 - Viola
26 - Horst
27 - Heisey
28 - Watson
29 - Castillo
30 - Turner
31 - Manuel
32 - Cumberland
33 - Buck
34 - Hildenbrandt
35 - Sulbaran
36 - Parker
37 - Geronimo
38 - Wiley
39 - A. Smit
40 - J. Smith

41 - Sappelt
42 - Thurman
43 - Brown
44 - Puckett
45 - Tatum
46 - Shunick
47 - A. Gonzalez
48 - Castro
49 - Waring
50 - LeCure
51 - Lutz (Pitcher)
52 - Richar
53 - Widemann
54 - Familia
55 - Cline
56 - Jukich
57 - Herrera
58 - Reed
59 - Guillon
60 - Arias/Morrison

Mario-Rijo
11-05-2008, 02:41 PM
I'll say this before I put my top 40, I may tweak it up until they begin play. Probably not so much the top 10-15 but I found last year that I learned a few things about some of the later guys last season while we were doing these rankings that vaulted guys a few spots or dropped them a few.

But I'm sure every one of us tweak it here and there. I would put Homer at 4 assuming he was R.O.Y eligible. But since I know not many will include him I'll just address this here and not on the list. I also added a few more just for fun.

1 - Soto
2 - Frazier
3 - Alonso
4 - Lotzkar
5 - Valaika
6 - Stubbs
7 - Mesoraco
8 - Dickerson
9 - Dorn
10 - Thompson
11 - Stewart
12 - Ramirez
13 - Fisher
14 - Roenicke
15 - Rosales
16 - Henry
17 - Maloney
18 - Cozart
19 - Bucholz
20 - Francisco
21 - Wood
22 - Duran
23 - Rodriguez
24 - Hanigan
25 - Viola
26 - Horst
27 - Heisey
28 - Watson
29 - Castillo
30 - Turner
31 - Manuel
32 - Cumberland
33 - Buck
34 - Hildenbrandt
35 - Sulbaran
36 - Parker
37 - Geronimo
38 - Wiley
39 - A. Smit
40 - J. Smith

41 - Sappelt
42 - Thurman
43 - Brown
44 - Puckett
45 - Tatum
46 - Shunick
47 - A. Gonzalez
48 - Castro
49 - Waring
50 - LeCure
51 - Lutz (Pitcher)
52 - Richar
53 - Widemann
54 - Reed- Familia is a D-Backs prospect from the Reds/Dbax DSL
55 - Cline
56 - Jukich
57 - Herrera
58 - Morrison
59 - Guillon
60 - Arias

OnBaseMachine
11-05-2008, 02:46 PM
You lost me with that last post. What's the deal with Familia beside Justin Reed's name?

Mario-Rijo
11-05-2008, 03:23 PM
You lost me with that last post. What's the deal with Familia beside Justin Reed's name?

I had Silio Familia as a prospect of ours in my initial post, but he is just on the Reds/DBacks DSL. And he is a DBacks prospect. It was late....;)

Kc61
11-05-2008, 04:00 PM
I'll go with 30 -- Didn't include Dickerson or Hanigan since I expect that their prospect days are over. Didn't include Bailey. On my list, and some others, once you get past the top 15 or twenty, the Reds' depth is in pitching, which is good.

1. Alonso -- OBP, power, and average
2. Frazier -- Maybe a shade below Alonso, but close from right side
3. Stubbs -- Defense makes up for bat questions
4. Soto -- Overhyped but potentially a high average hitter
5. Francisco -- Underhyped, huge production, needs to walk more
6. Lotzkar -- Raw, maybe injured, but best starter package in org
7. Duran -- Just based on scouting
8. Roenicke -- Could be the next Dibble.
9. Valaika -- Can hit, unsure if MLB starter, defense unclear
10.Thompson -- Just based on that Yankee performance
11. Stewart -- Moving fast as reliever, seems to have great stuff
12. Dorn -- Platoon left fielder, very consistent minor league hitter
13. Cozart -- Hidden gem, org's true shortstop, will he hit?
14. Mesoraco -- Needs time to develop, first round talent
15. Lecure -- For awhile was super in AA last year, until injury
16. Fisher -- With ground ball stuff, good fit as reliever
17. Rodriguez -- Like Duran, based on scouting
18. Ramirez -- Has held up well in upper levels
19. Watson -- Performance must improve, apparently dynamite stuff
20. Turner -- May lack some projection, great make up, performs
21. J. Smith -- Did great at High A, ground balls, low WHIP, solid
22. Henry -- Looks like a solid fourth outfielder
23. Viola -- Inconsistent but can be effective from pen or starting
24. Hildenbrandt -- Needs to develop but seems to be class of GCL crop
25. Rosales -- See him as reserve, but gets bat on ball, versatile
26. Wood -- Smaller frame, needs to show has more than changeup
27. Buck -- Deserves mention due to pre-injury status
28. Tatum -- Didn't hit last year, still projects as defensive catcher
29. Manuel -- Not hyped for his projection, but good numbers
30. Waring -- More hype in '07, not giving up on him

Notably missing -- Maloney. Would love to see him succeed as lefty starter, didn't happen in 2008.

Honorable mention -- Bucholtz. Another good season and he rockets up the list.

SMcGavin
11-05-2008, 08:18 PM
Good thread idea. I'll get mine on here when I get a full list done, I've only thought about the first 15 or so.

Betterread
11-05-2008, 09:00 PM
My Top 40 Prospects

1. Yonder Alonso
2. Neftali Soto
3. Todd Frazier
4. Juan Francisco
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Juan Duran
7. Chris Valaika
8. Zach Stewart
9. Josh Roenicke
10. Yorman Rodriguez
11. Devin Mesoraco
12. Kyle Lotzkar
13. Danny Dorn
14. Carlos Fisher
15. Matt Maloney
16. Justin Turner
17. Sean Watson
18. Ismael Guillon
19. Chris Dickerson
20. Zach Cozart
21. Evan Hildenbrandt
22. Dallas Buck
23. Blaine Howell
24. Junior Arias
25. Sam Lecure
26. Terrell Young
27. Philippe Valiquette
28. Juan Carlos Sulbaran
29. Jordan Smith
30. Travis Wood
31. Daryl Thompson
32. Ramon Ramirez
33. Pedro Viola
34. Sean Henry
35. Shaun Cumberland
36. Jeremy Horst
37. Tyler Cline
38. Tyler Pelland
39. Daniel Morrison
40. Alex Buchholz

*BaseClogger*
11-05-2008, 09:35 PM
Notably missing -- Maloney. Would love to see him succeed as lefty starter, didn't happen in 2008.

Shooter's gonna love that... ;)

Orenda
11-05-2008, 10:28 PM
1. Yonder Alonso- liked the pick
2. Todd Frazier- provides much needed right handed bat
3. Neftali Soto- This is not hype its production and at a very young age, he will have to work on his plate discipline at some point….won’t he?
4. Danny Dorn- Im going to treat anyone who could hit 25 hr’s in the majors as a regular rather than a platoon.
5. Chris Valaika- The reds seem to be content to leave him at ss for now
6. Daryl Thompson- needs to stay healthy
7. Kyle Lotzkar- ditto
8. Carlos Fisher- like the groundball tendencies
9. Devin Mesoraco- I’d keep him in Dayton for at least half the season
10. Juan Fransisco- Too much power to ignore,
11. Chris Dickerson- Only player on this list to OBP over .400 in MLB
12. Josh Roenicke- can’t live off a fastball alone,
13. Ramon Ramirez
14. Drew Stubbs- Serious doubts about him, I’d trade him while his value is high. At least his production has remained consistent. Brian Anderson proved lack of offense is not tolerated.
15. Zach Stewart-
16. Zach Cozart- Didn’t like this pick but he had a good year in Dayton, if he has a solid year next year he’ll jump into my top 10
17. Chris Heisey- I was a Denorfia fan as well
18. Juan Duran- too much money to ignore
19. Yorman Rodriguez- ditto
20. Adam Rosales- Rough slump to start the season before getting hot. He had 70 XBH the previous season.

21. Ryan Hanigan
22. Matt Maloney-
23. Justin Turner
24. Pedro Viola
25. Sam Lecure
26. Travis Wood
27. Jeremy Horst
28. Sean Watson
29. Evan Hildenbrandt
30. Sean Henry
31. Robert Manuel
32. Shaun Cumberland
33. Jordan Smith
34. Alex Buchholz
35. Alexander Smit
36. Byron Wiley
37. Ramon Geronimo
38. Juan Carlos Sulbaran
39. Ramon Geronimo
40. Miseal Dejesus
41. Danny Ray Herrera

Players who I'll be interested to see how they perform, in no relevant order

1. Juan Aquino
2. Justin Reed
3. Shea Snowden
4. David Sappelt
5. Logan Parker
6. Jeff Jeffords
7. Scott Carroll
8. Cody Puckett
9. Andrew Means
10. Brandon Waring

SMcGavin
11-05-2008, 10:53 PM
Shooter's gonna love that... ;)

:)

These rankings are opinion, and everyone's entitled to their opinion. I'll only speak up if something is presented as a fact when it can be proven untrue.

Also, I am glad everyone has figured out the origin of my username. I always wondered if people got that or not.

*BaseClogger*
11-05-2008, 11:07 PM
:)

These rankings are opinion, and everyone's entitled to their opinion. I'll only speak up if something is presented as a fact when it can be proven untrue.

Also, I am glad everyone has figured out the origin of my username. I always wondered if people got that or not.

WMR had it figured out when you were up for vote... :)

mace
11-06-2008, 12:14 AM
1. Soto
2. Alonso
3. Francisco
4. Y. Rodriguez
5. Lotzkar
6. Dickerson
7. Stewart
8. Thompson
9. Hanigan
10. Frazier
11. Valaika
12. Duran
13. Stubbs
14. Mesoraco
15. Heisey
16. Horst
17. Buchholz
18. Hildenbrandt
19. Cozart
20. Fisher
21. Waring
22. Dorn
23. Sulbaran
24. Turner
25. Roenicke
26. R. Ramirez
27. I. Guillon
28. Viola
29. Herrera
30. Buck
31. Manuel
32. M. Thurman
33. Maloney
34. S. Snowden
35. J. Arias
36. D. Sappelt
37. Rosales
38. Tatum
39. R. Geronimo
40. Parker

OnBaseMachine
11-06-2008, 01:21 AM
1. Yonder Alonso - polished approach, .300/.400/.550 caliber hitter
2. Neftali Soto - potential 30 homer, .900+ OPS hitter, few more walks would be nice
3. Todd Frazier - good combo of power/OBP, Youkilis-lite?
4. Drew Stubbs - gold glove caliber CFer, good OBP skills
5. Kyle Lotzkar - very young, electric stuff, potential ace
6. Daryl Thompson - potential solid big league starter, Arroyo with better velocity?
7. Chris Valaika - solid bat, potential .800 OPS hitter?
8. Juan Francisco - 35 to 40 homer power, improved plate discipline is key
9. Juan Duran - incredible talent, one of best hitting prospects to come out of Dominican Republic
10. Chris Dickerson - plus defender in CF with skills to be above average hitter
11. Danny Dorn - potential 30 homer guy, good OBP skills, needs to improve vs lefties
12. Zach Stewart - dominant stuff, potential shutdown reliever
13. Josh Roenicke - great fastball, needs to refine breaking ball, potential dominant relief arm
14. Yorman Rodriguez - incredible athlete, draws comparisons to Eric Davis and Cesar Cedeno
15. Carlos Fisher - great stuff with groundball tendencies, good major league reliever
16. Ramon Ramirez - plus changeup, solid fastball, chance to be solid big league starter or reliever
17. Matt Maloney - average fastball with quality curveball and changeup. Potential innings eating #4 starter
18. Dallas Buck - strong groundball tendencies, velocity will be key
19. Devin Mesoraco - still has some work to do, but still a good prospect
20. Zach Cozart - plus defender at shortstop, solid power, needs to work on plate discipline
21. Adam Rosales - big league utility player with solid power
22. Chris Heisey - good defender in CF with good OBP skills
23. Pedro Viola - good stuff, has a chance to be a quality lefty out of the pen
24. Jeremy Horst - good command of average stuff, potential back-end starter or lefty reliever
25. Alex Buchholz - big time bat, decent defender at second base
26. Evan Hildenbrandt - already has two above average pitches in fastball and curve
27. Justin Turner - utility type guy, Reds fans will love his all-out style of play
28. Sean Henry - solid player in mold of a Reed Johnson type
29. Juan Carlos Sulbaran - low 90's fastball with plus movement, quality curve and changeup. Could take a huge leap on this list next year
30. Travis Wood - plus changeup, command needs some work
31. Robert Manuel - average to slightly above average fastball with movement, good changeup and great command
32. Mace Thurman - potential steal in late rounds of 2008 draft, potential to be a good lefty out of pen
33. Junior Arias - only 16, slick fielding shortstop with good potential in bat
34. Sam Lecure - average stuff, maybe big league 5th starter/swing man
35. Jordan Smith - power arm with groundball tendencies
36. Ismael Guillon - 16 year old lefty, 88-92 mph heater with advanced changeup for his age
37. Philippe Valiquette - quality stuff, command is key
38. Carter Morrison - toolsy outfielder from Canada, big potential, possible steal
39. Ryan Hanigan - Already 28 years old, not much power, good OBP skills, solid defender, age is reason I dropped him so low... I do like him, he's a good story
40. Brandon Waring - solid defender with big power, needs to cut down on strikeouts

*This could be subject to change. I sort of just threw this list together tonight.

*BaseClogger*
11-06-2008, 01:58 AM
^^no love for Devin Mesoraco?

OnBaseMachine
11-06-2008, 02:16 AM
^^no love for Devin Mesoraco?

It's not that I don't like Mesoraco, because I do, it's just that I like some other prospects more than him at this point. I still view him as a solid prospect who needs some work, like most young catchers do. 2009 is a big season for him IMO. I'd probably probably start him in Dayton to begin the season and maybe promote him to Sarasota mid season if he plays well. He impressed some people during Instructional League, so hopefully that's a sign of things to come. He could really jump up this list a year from now if he has a solid 2009 season.

SMcGavin
11-14-2008, 03:06 PM
Here's my top 25:

1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier
3. Kyle Lotzkar
4. Neftali Soto
5. Matt Maloney
6. Danny Dorn
7. Juan Francisco
8. Daryl Thompson
9. Chris Dickerson
10. Chris Valaika
11. Drew Stubbs
12. Zach Stewart
13. Devin Mesoraco
14. Jeremy Horst
15. Zach Cozart
16. Ramon Ramirez
17. Josh Roenicke
18. Travis Wood
19. Danny Herrera
20. Ryan Hanigan
21. Evan Hildenbrant
22. Sean Henry
23. Clayton Shunick
24. Alex Bucholz
25. Brandon Waring

I did not rank Duran and Rodriguez, because I have absolutely no idea where to put them. Once they get in the U.S. and start playing minor league ball, I'll have a better idea.

Also I was suprised not to see Clayton Shunick in a single person's top 40. I think he's the Jeremy Horst of 2009.

RedEye
11-19-2008, 02:13 PM
:)

These rankings are opinion, and everyone's entitled to their opinion. I'll only speak up if something is presented as a fact when it can be proven untrue.

Also, I am glad everyone has figured out the origin of my username. I always wondered if people got that or not.

"Here's a free lesson..."

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/5789/shooter20ow.jpg

SMcGavin
11-19-2008, 02:56 PM
"Here's a free lesson..."

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/5789/shooter20ow.jpg

You know what else would draw a crowd, a golfer with an arm growing out of his...

Screwball
11-21-2008, 07:49 AM
"Here's a free lesson..."

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/5789/shooter20ow.jpg

"Five iron, huh? Well, you're fired."

RedlegJake
11-21-2008, 10:30 AM
There's a whole bunch of guys from the International signings and from Billings that will emerge this year and a few who will disappear, and a clutch of guys that will likely lose "prospect" status as they make the club - Ramirez, Hanigan, Dickerson, possibly Rosales or Hernandez, Richar. In 8 short months others like Maloney and Frazier, Valaika, Dorn, Fischer and Stewart could break into the league. A few might be traded, and new draft choices will be added. The great thing about this flux is that the system is finally pushing guys off the prospect list because they're reaching, not because they've busted. Wasn't that long ago it seemed the only changes to the prospects in the system were drop outs with nobody getting good enough to "graduate".

camisadelgolf
11-21-2008, 10:42 AM
There's a whole bunch of guys from the International signings and from Billings that will emerge this year and a few who will disappear, and a clutch of guys that will likely lose "prospect" status as they make the club - Ramirez, Hanigan, Dickerson, possibly Rosales or Hernandez, Richar. In 8 short months others like Maloney and Frazier, Valaika, Dorn, Fischer and Stewart could break into the league. A few might be traded, and new draft choices will be added. The great thing about this flux is that the system is finally pushing guys off the prospect list because they're reaching, not because they've busted. Wasn't that long ago it seemed the only changes to the prospects in the system were drop outs with nobody getting good enough to "graduate".

You meant Ramirez, right?

RedlegJake
11-21-2008, 11:10 AM
You meant Ramirez, right?

Nope. I meant Herrerra. I hope Keith Hernandez hasn't been signed.

lollipopcurve
11-21-2008, 02:29 PM
My top 10 for now

Alonso
Frazier
Soto
Dickerson
Valaika
Ramirez
Francisco
Stubbs
Heisey
Yorman

camisadelgolf
11-21-2008, 03:16 PM
Nope. I meant Herrerra. I hope Keith Hernandez hasn't been signed.

I hope so, too. I wouldn't mind if the Reds somehow signed just the mustache, though.

mth123
11-22-2008, 08:44 AM
My list is probably a lot different than others. I did not attempt to rate Duran or Yorman Rodriguez and young pitchers with little time above the rookie leagues probably got rated a little lower than most. The likelihood of these guys breaking down or stalling along the way is too great when they have so many levels to cover between the rookie leagues and the big leagues. Unless its a top guy like Bailey or Lotzkar were when they were drafted, I left them low in my rankings. I admit guys like Hildenbrandt, Sulbarren and Horst could jump way up with a good year at Dayton or higher.




1 Alonso - Will be a cornerstone
2 Frazier - Needs a postion
3 Soto - I see a mini MIguel Cabrera in the making
4 Stubbs - Mostly on rep and trade value
5 Lotzkar - If he's healthy
6 Dickerson - Old, but will play a lot on the big league team
7 Thompson - Another guy I'd look to sell high, but his late injury may not allow it
8 Dorn - Matt Stairs???
9 Cozart - Could be an everyday SS. Won't be a star.
10 Roenicke - Late inninng reliever. I'd sell.
11 Francisco - Biggest ? for me. Need to see more.
12 Heisey - Under-rated. Has glove to make his bat playable.
13 Ramirez - Swingman, could be valuable pen arm. Could surprise.
14 Fisher - Solid middle inning reliever, but has real bad stretches.
15 Maloney - Another big ? I'd look to deal
16 Valaika - Needs to show he can really handle MI
17 Stewart - on the rise and would rate higher if he had more time in
18 Hanigan - Will have useful run as part of a catching tandem
19 Mesoraco - If he can't catch, he's not a prospect.
20 Henry - Could be solid 4th OF type
21 Turner - Sleeper. I need to know more about his D.
22 Rosales - Could go higher with a shot in the majors.
23 Buck - 2009 will tell the tale.
24 Buchholz - Maybe a little high, but his bat seems solid
25 Jukich - He's exceeded expectations so far.
26 Waring - Can he handle 3B?
27 Lecure - Should get a chance in the majors eventually
28 Viola - Could be real sleeper as a starting pitcher.
29 Wood - Needs a comeback or he drops off the list.
30 Cumberland - Probably a fringe player a la Buck Coats
31 Parker - Sleeper who can hit. A move to LF would help.
32 Manuel - Probably deserves higher, has made himself a prospect.
33 Watson - Flashes promise and undermines it with wildness
34 Sappelt - I like him so far. Need to see more.
35 Herrera - Could help as a different look type
36 Hildenbrandt - Has promise, need to see more.
37 Horst - See Hildy
38 Sulbarren - See Hildy
39 Geronimo - Need to see if he can find a valuable role
40 Valiquette - Got torched in Hawaii

*BaseClogger*
10-29-2009, 01:58 AM
bump

*BaseClogger*
11-02-2009, 10:52 PM
BaseClogger's 2010 Top 40 Prospects

1. Yonder Alonso
2. Mike Leake
3. Todd Frazier
4. Yorman Rodriguez
5. Travis Wood
6. Chris Heisey
7. Matt Maloney
8. Juan Francisco
9. Matt Klinker
10. Zack Cozart
11. Devin Mesoraco
12. Billy Hamilton
13. Brad Boxberger
14. J.C. Sulbaran
15. Danny Dorn
16. Donnie Joseph
17. Chris Valaika
18. Neftali Soto
19. Sam LeCure
20. Pedrio Viola
21. Josh Fellhauer
22. Daniel Tuttle
23. Jeremy Horst
24. Juan Silva
25. Matt Fairel
26. Mark Serrano
27. Juan Duran
28. Ben Jukich
29. Mace Thurman
30. Mark Fleury
31. Kevin Coddington
32. Logan Ondrusek
33. Miguel Rojas
34. Mariekson Gregorius
35. Phil Valiquette
36. Tucker Barnhart
37. Ramon Ramirez
38. Jordan Smith
39. Jacob Johnson
40. Alex Oliveras

tripleaaaron
11-05-2009, 12:07 PM
My 2010 rankings:
1. Yonder Alonso
2. Todd Frazier
3. Mike Leake
4. Juan Francisco
5. Yorman Rodriguez
6. Chris Heisey
7. Zach Cozart
8. Travis Wood
9. Neftali Soto
10. Brad Boxberger
11. Billy Hamilton
12. Devin Mesoraco
13. Matt Maloney
14. Danny Dorn
15. JC Sulbaran
16. Donnie Joseph
17. Chris Valaika
18. Josh Fellhauer
19. Matt Klinker
20. Daniel Tuttle
21. Miguel Rojas
22. Sam Lecure
23. Logan Ondrusek
24. Jeremy Horst
25. Mariekson Gregorius
26. Mark Serrano
27. Kevin Coddington
28. Juan Duran
29. Ben Jukich
30. Matt Fairell
31. Alex Buchholz
32. David Sappelt
33. Tucker Barnhart
34. Juan Silva
35. Mace Thurman
36. Alex Oliveras
37. Cody Puckett
38. Tyler Cline
39. Phillip Valiquette
40a. Sean Henry
40b. Kyle Lotzkar (rooting he comes back strong somehow)

mdccclxix
12-02-2009, 12:37 AM
First, I'll admit I was pleased to read that Terry Reynolds at least gave lip service to my own bent in examining "prospects" in relation to the organization as a whole:

"For me it's, what are you doing? How did they perform this past summer? What do we think of them as an organization and where can they help us and WHEN can they help us."

Besides the fact that while creating my list I only considered last year's performance ;) I was relieved to read this.

I think this says a lot about staying practical about players, as well as setting up a structure where scouting reports and signing bonuses are not stunting development, causing animosity, creating lazy check collectors, etc. Turns out the Reds are just about as "what have you done for me lately" as many fans. :thumbup:

Throughout the voting for Redszone's prospects, I favored Maloney in the early going (I think I might have started voting for him at 5 - a bull headed mistake as I was forming my ideas). I believe more in a meritocracy (results) and like to avoid the "Wily Mo" effect of clinging to what "should" happen. Bleh!

I'm not afraid of projections and scouting reports, but miserable failure is just too strong of a sign to ignore (Duran, etc.) They've got to PROVE IT.

I feel this list is a pretty good, concurrent, list of both who can help the Reds and when they can help them. If a player was no higher than Dayton last year, it almost certainly hurt them in my list. Only players like Soto or Mesoraco could fight past their stations due to overwhelming youth and / or likely high expectations not utterly ruined - yet.

Where possible, I took SP's over position players. I also tried to prize defense when comparing two close players (although this was after the more measurable offensive numbers were in place so it's not perfect).

1 Travis Wood
2 Todd Frazier
3 Michael Leake
4 Zachary Cozart
5 Yonder Alonso
6 Juan Francisco
7 Matt Maloney
8 Chris Heisey
9 Devin Mesoraco
10 Bradley Boxberger
11 Enerio Del Rosario
12 Matthew Klinker
13 Christopher Valaika
14 Daniel Tuttle
15 Neftali Soto
16 Matt Fairel
17 Josh Fellhauer
18 Logan Ondrusek
19 Samuel Lecure
20 Ezequiel Infante
21 Jordan Smith
22 Miguel Rojas
23 Tyler Cline
24 Yorman Rodriguez
25 Mariekson Gregorius
26 Mark Serrano
27 Billy Hamilton
28 David Sappelt
29 Juan Silva
30 Mace Thurman
31 Donnie Joseph
32 Wes Bankston
33 Lance Janke
34 Nathan Driessen
36 Daniel Dorn
35 Byron Wiley
37 Brian Pearl
38 Philippe-Alexandre Valiquette
39 Cody Puckett
40 Juan Duran

Wood was the statistical leader and most complete option available. He's surprisingly my #1. I wasn't that convinced, but I'm really trusting this model I came up with for the sake of the exercise.

Frazier was alone at #2.

The next 5 were lumped together and sorted out according to position (SP, SS), then defense (Alonso, Juan). It didn't bother me seeing Alonso at #5 because the world will have to continue to wait for his power to show and defense to improve.

Cozart = great d + efficient batting, and seeing him at # 4 was another delightful twist in perspective for me. I'd have thought him around 7 or 8.

Anyway, thoughts?

Mario-Rijo
12-02-2009, 05:53 AM
My 1st thought is wow, interesting rankings. My second thought and quickly is bravo for putting in the work and for coming up with some way of appreciating something other than simply ranking their ceilings/production. I don't know that I agree with your rankings but I think you have an argument here with the way you have done them. Perhaps it's not how most of the "experts" would do it but it has some merit IMO.

roborobj
12-02-2009, 11:08 AM
I don't understand why Ben Jukich doesn't get more respect as a pitcher. He may only top off at 87 mph, but he throws a lot of different pitches to keep batters off balance and seems to have good control. He is leading in the Dominican Winter League with the lowest ERA of 1.71 for starters.

dougdirt
12-02-2009, 11:17 AM
I don't understand why Ben Jukich doesn't get more respect as a pitcher. He may only top off at 87 mph, but he throws a lot of different pitches to keep batters off balance and seems to have good control. He is leading in the Dominican Winter League with the lowest ERA of 1.71 for starters.
Because guys of his ilk are all over the minor leagues and hardly any of them go on to major league success outside of a being a loogy. Until guys like that actually have success at the major league level, they will always be questioned.

mace
12-02-2009, 11:28 AM
I think your rankings have a lot of merit. I was glad to see that your system still permitted you to acknowledge the promise of such young folks as Tuttle, Cline, Driessen, etc. (I would have also included Jacob Johnson, but whatever.) To me, that GCL-level cluster of young pitching is an underrated strength of the organization. At any rate, md, you've fast become a substantive contributor to this forum, and thanks for that.

Kc61
12-02-2009, 11:59 AM
Interesting list.

As I read these lists, it's pretty clear that the Reds will be strong at AAA and in the lower minors next year, but the High A and AA levels could be weak -- unless there are some trades.

They might consider starting Mike Leake at AAA. That way he could play with a very good team and develop as a winner. If they start him at High A or AA, he may wind up on a terrible ballclub, which sometimes hurts a prospect.

roborobj
12-02-2009, 12:29 PM
Because guys of his ilk are all over the minor leagues and hardly any of them go on to major league success outside of a being a loogy. Until guys like that actually have success at the major league level, they will always be questioned.

Yet, if you look at last year's stats of Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure and Ben Jukich, they are very similar. Almost identical. Why are the other two rated so highly?

dougdirt
12-02-2009, 12:46 PM
Yet, if you look at last year's stats of Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure and Ben Jukich, they are very similar. Almost identical. Why are the other two rated so highly?

They can hit 90 MPH or better. Projection. Maloney isn't a hard thrower, but he also works in the upper 80's and can hit 91 MPH from time to time. Lecure works 89-91 and can hit higher every now and again. Guys like that have more success on a whole than guys who top out at 87 MPH.

roborobj
12-02-2009, 01:54 PM
They can hit 90 MPH or better. Projection. Maloney isn't a hard thrower, but he also works in the upper 80's and can hit 91 MPH from time to time. Lecure works 89-91 and can hit higher every now and again. Guys like that have more success on a whole than guys who top out at 87 MPH.

That's if they stay healthy.

dougdirt
12-02-2009, 02:19 PM
That's if they stay healthy.

Well that applies to everyone doesn't it?

mdccclxix
12-03-2009, 02:29 AM
My 1st thought is wow, interesting rankings. My second thought and quickly is bravo for putting in the work and for coming up with some way of appreciating something other than simply ranking their ceilings/production. I don't know that I agree with your rankings but I think you have an argument here with the way you have done them. Perhaps it's not how most of the "experts" would do it but it has some merit IMO.

I think that was about my first reaction as well. :eek: I was touting Maloney over Wood at one point, now he's #1? Del Rosario #11?

What I did was use a mix of

-age relative to their level. Not many players are 3 years ahead of schedule, or even 2. 1 year ahead is quite something. So, Wood in AAA at 22 is a bonus for him. Heisey at AAA at 24 is a minus. Doesn't seem fair, but it's just one thing to look at, put a number on. The best, very best prospects, are usually ahead of schedule...

- level - plainly, that A ballers were deducted and AAA ballers were rewarded. This one goes out to the veterans. Heisey just picked a point right back up.

- ops for hitters / k:bb rate for pitchers - they aren't the tell all, but they are what I am comfortable using to determine generic value. Over 800 ops was a point, as was over 3:1 k:bb rate, for example.

- draft position as a scouting measure - there's no way I'm as keyed into scouting reports as I would need to be. Besides, you're always hearing this guys got good stuff from one scout and that he's garbage from the next. So where was he picked? It's like looking at a racing program for Secretariat's great grand kid. :p: Ya gotta hope some of this goes forward. It's my projection variable. *I adjusted for big money international guys that I found as near top round talent, but have no hope of determining this for the dozens of others so I gave them a neutral score.

- fielding position - I have SP's, SS and C as 1 point, then CF, 3b, RF, as 0 points, and 2b, 1b and LF as -1 point along with RP's.

- Secret sauce! - I just needed to add a touch of complex (perhaps garbage) calculations for my own curiosity. I think it turned out OK, as the cream rose to the top of the results. ISOP, K rates, stuff I've learned from Doug and others basically, kind of mish mashed to see what shook. In the end this was my performance variable more so than the ops / k:bb earlier.

- defensive adjustments / other common sense - when it was over there were some things that needed tweeking based on circumstance, PT, awards, what limited consensus stuff I've heard on players, etc.

In the end, I primarily preserved what the sum of all these values were and sorted it Z-A and that was (mostly) it.

So in summary, I gave values (ranging from -2 to 2 or from -1 to 1) to variables that covered:

1) a players precociousness (age/competition)
2) a players experience and achievement (minors level)
3) a players counted performance (ops, k:bb)
4) a players efficient performance (iso, k:bb, etc)
5) a players position on defense
6) a players draft spot / reputation / scouted value

It was a fun project, just wanted to see what I could come up with in terms of a complete picture based on numbers. Who knows, maybe Wood really becomes our #3!

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and/or reading. :beerme:

One last thing I found interesting...I left considered all players who were in the minors for the Reds last year and naturally had to take some out who are no longer Reds prospects. Had I not, or if things were somewhat different, here would've been my top 4:

1 Zachary Stewart
2 Travis Wood
3 David Bailey
4 Todd Frazier

:thumbup:

mdccclxix
12-03-2009, 02:37 AM
I think your rankings have a lot of merit. I was glad to see that your system still permitted you to acknowledge the promise of such young folks as Tuttle, Cline, Driessen, etc. (I would have also included Jacob Johnson, but whatever.) To me, that GCL-level cluster of young pitching is an underrated strength of the organization. At any rate, md, you've fast become a substantive contributor to this forum, and thanks for that.

Thanks for the kind words! :thumbup:

Guys like Driessen and Tuttle either performed well (small samples), were really young, or drafted pretty high, or all three. More than enough to overcome their distance from the bigs.

DaytonDave
12-15-2009, 11:20 AM
Does anyone have any info on the DSL SS Junior Arias? He wasn't mentioned on any of the lists, but held his own in the DSL this year as a 17yo.

DaytonDave
12-16-2009, 12:01 AM
Still haven't been able to find any info on Arias, but I did come across this prospect list tonight:

http://baseballnumbers-diamondfutures.blogspot.com/

I found the Francisco/Frazier discussion interesting

dougdirt
12-16-2009, 12:23 AM
Still haven't been able to find any info on Arias, but I did come across this prospect list tonight:


There isn't much out there to be found on Arias. Until he plays in the States, the information is going to be extremely limited.

roborobj
12-29-2009, 11:35 AM
They can hit 90 MPH or better. Projection. Maloney isn't a hard thrower, but he also works in the upper 80's and can hit 91 MPH from time to time. Lecure works 89-91 and can hit higher every now and again. Guys like that have more success on a whole than guys who top out at 87 MPH.


It's nice to see that there are other teams out there that value soft tossers like Jukich. I hope when he has to face the Reds that he will do fine job of getting his outs.

dougdirt
12-29-2009, 01:05 PM
It's nice to see that there are other teams out there that value soft tossers like Jukich. I hope when he has to face the Reds that he will do fine job of getting his outs.

You hope he has success against the Reds? I am all for hoping he does well against everyone else, but I hope he channels Eric Milton circa 2006 every time he toes the rubber against the Reds. Of course this all hinges on him making the Cardinals roster, which isn't something that is 100%.

Scrap Irony
12-29-2009, 10:14 PM
I've seen Jukich pitch seven or eight times and he's yet to break 88. He's the softest tosser I have ever seen and has NO margin for error in AAA, let alone the majors.

Perhaps he's as good as DRH or has some seriously cool junk. I'm betting he's nothing more than flotsam.