Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to Nationals [Archive] - RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion

reds44

11-10-2008, 08:35 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3694827

The Washington Nationals began their rebuilding process Monday, agreeing to a trade for left fielder Josh Willingham and lefty starter Scott Olsen of the Florida Marlins for a package of players.

The Nats traded away second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, who hit .243 in 49 games last season, and two minors leaguers in pitcher P.J. Dean and shortstop Jake Smolinski, sources told ESPN's Peter Gammons.

Olsen, went 8-11 with a 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins last year, while Willingham -- who can also play first base -- hit .254 with 15 homers.

Bonaficio is a career .240 hitter, who was traded to Washington for Jon Rauch by Arizona last season. His quickness fills Florida's need to improve its right-side defense.

Dean went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA in 10 starts in the Gulf Coast League last season while Smolinski hit .306 in the New York-Penn League.

That is an...interesting...move for the Marlins. Willingham and Olsen wouldn't have been bad fits for the Reds, especially considering the asking price.

hebroncougar

11-10-2008, 08:37 PM

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3694827

That is an...interesting...move for the Marlins. Willingham and Olsen wouldn't have been bad fits for the Reds, especially considering the asking price.

Neither would Bonaficio if you move Phillips to SS.

OnBaseMachine

11-10-2008, 08:38 PM

That's a good deal for the Nationals. I was hoping the Reds would go after Olsen. The Reds could have easily topped that deal with Valaika + Lecure or another prospect.

jesusfan

11-10-2008, 08:46 PM

wow... there goes one deal that could've helped...

schroomytunes

11-10-2008, 08:49 PM

Yeah that was a deal that I actually think could've helped us, oh well maybe Jocketty's working on something bigger!

OnBaseMachine

11-10-2008, 09:19 PM

If the Marlins are just gonna give away players like that then Walt needs to jump in and make an offer for Hermida.

AmarilloRed

11-10-2008, 09:31 PM

Bowden can never have too many outfielders.:)

Highlifeman21

11-10-2008, 09:42 PM

Bowden can never have too many outfielders.:)

But Willingham isn't a 5 tooler...

What gives?!

I thought JimBo only collected 5 toolers.

jojo

11-10-2008, 09:49 PM

Olsen is kind of blucky. No, he's exceptionally blucky.

Mario-Rijo

11-10-2008, 09:54 PM

Olsen gave up too many bombs for my taste. And that was in Florida granted that was probably to LF the shortest but highest part of the field I believe. But he wouldn't have been a good fit for us IMO. Willingham I was never much impressed with either. Perhaps the Marlins think Smolinski or Dean is a diamond in the rough, Bonafacio could end up being a steal if they can get his offensive game ironed out a bit. Still it probably was about as good as the Nats could hope for.

Where does Uggla now land? Please don't say LF in GABP, although i'm sure we could certainly do worse. I would rather have him than Magglio and contract. I assumed he was on the block even before this deal (due to arb.), but now it looks even moreso.

*BaseClogger*

11-10-2008, 10:04 PM

Willingham was a guy I was trumpeting. I think he'll be a good acquisition for the Nats...

jojo

11-10-2008, 10:09 PM

Uggla in LF at GABP? I'd watch that experiment.

jesusfan

11-10-2008, 10:12 PM

Uggla in LF is an idea I kinda like...

Mario-Rijo

11-10-2008, 10:16 PM

Uggla in LF is an idea I kinda like...

I guess I only have myself to blame for bringing that one up. :cool:

corkedbat

11-10-2008, 10:43 PM

Uggla in LF is an idea I kinda like...

Count me in :D

What kind of an infielder is Uggla though? Would Uggla @ 3B & EdE in LF work better (although I'm still dubious about the latter)?

Raisor

11-10-2008, 10:57 PM

Hopefully that's one less team for Dunn.

Highlifeman21

11-10-2008, 11:01 PM

Hopefully that's one less team for Dunn.

My fingers are still crossed he comes back to the Reds

johngalt

11-10-2008, 11:11 PM

Where does Uggla now land?

Maybe they move Cantu to LF and put Uggla at 3B? Cantu made a ton of errors at 3B last year, so it wouldn't surprise me that they would want to move him somewhere else.

Will M

11-10-2008, 11:22 PM

Maybe they move Cantu to LF and put Uggla at 3B? Cantu made a ton of errors at 3B last year, so it wouldn't surprise me that they would want to move him somewhere else.

ah ha! since Cantu is arbitration eligible maybe the Marlins will try to move him. if we could get him cheap he could be our stopgap left fielder. the old adage is that even my grandma can play LF.

note - i am only half joking. Cantu's OPS+ of 110 after we released him last winter still irks me.

Mario-Rijo

11-10-2008, 11:38 PM

Maybe they move Cantu to LF and put Uggla at 3B? Cantu made a ton of errors at 3B last year, so it wouldn't surprise me that they would want to move him somewhere else.

I thought Cantu was moving to 1st for them taking it over for the recently departed Jacobs.

johngalt

11-11-2008, 12:43 AM

I thought Cantu was moving to 1st for them taking it over for the recently departed Jacobs.

I know that's been discussed, but they also have Gaby Sanchez and Dallas McPherson who are 1B/3B types that have been talked about potentially taking over at 1B. Guess it just depends what arrangement they want.

ramp101

11-11-2008, 01:12 AM

No problem with moving Willingham or Olsen as both weren't going to be back next year anyway.

BIG PROBLEM with getting nothing in return for them.

Mario-Rijo

11-11-2008, 01:18 AM

I know that's been discussed, but they also have Gaby Sanchez and Dallas McPherson who are 1B/3B types that have been talked about potentially taking over at 1B. Guess it just depends what arrangement they want.

I was thinking McPherson was the leading candidate for 3rd. But either way I believe the Fla. has a mind to keep Cantu for next season.

ramp101

11-11-2008, 01:33 AM

I don't expect Cantu to be back next year. Wouldn't be Marlins-like.

Mario-Rijo

11-11-2008, 01:54 AM

I don't expect Cantu to be back next year. Wouldn't be Marlins-like.

Hey Ramp while I got ya here. Kpresidente noted a guy a week or so ago I found interesting, Catcher John Baker. 1st what's the story on his game specifically defense and do you think he'd be available?

Krusty

11-11-2008, 06:59 AM

Anybody getting that feeling that Austin Kearns could be on his way out in Washington. With the addition of Willingham to go along with Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes in the outfield, Kearns could be the odd man out. And given his contract and performance in 2008, he could be probably had real cheap.

So would Kearns fullfill the Reds wishlist of a righthanded hitter for the middle of the order? Or do you take the been there done that approach and move on?

chicoruiz

11-11-2008, 07:15 AM

[The Washington Nationals began their rebuilding process Monday]

Strictly speaking, the Washington Nationals cannot "rebuild". You can't "rebuild" unless you were at some point "built".

Degenerate39

11-11-2008, 07:23 AM

Count me in :D

What kind of an infielder is Uggla though? Would Uggla @ 3B & EdE in LF work better (although I'm still dubious about the latter)?

I've only seen him play a few times but what stands out the most is the all star game. Where he played horrible defense. Not saying he's a bad defender all the time but I wasn't impressed at all.

MikeS21

11-11-2008, 07:32 AM

lollipopcurve

11-11-2008, 07:52 AM

Let's put it this way, if the Reds decided to bring Kearns back, you have one more selling point to talk Dunn into returning.

Could the Reds get by with an OF of Dunn, Bruce, and Kearns?

Or ED, Bruce and O'Neill?

pahster

11-11-2008, 10:04 AM

Or ED, Bruce and O'Neill?

Why play Bruce when you can activate Billy Hatcher? :p:

westofyou

11-11-2008, 10:22 AM

Typical Bowden move, Olsen is a head case and pretty big one at that, Willingham is a converted catcher with a glove that is has as much worth to the team as cinder block taped to his hand, plus at 30 he's now going to be more expensive than prior, plus he's another OF on a team loaded with them.

But the best part is the hype that the Nationals pumped on the guy that they said was earmarked to be their 2nd baseman next season the day they received him.

"He has tremendous range defensively," Bowden said of Bonifacio. "He makes your pitching staff better immediately. He has the best range of any second baseman since I've been here. He is very, very special.

"He has stolen 40 or more basis in each of the last four years. He is a .284 lifetime Minor League hitter. We think he is a top-of-the-order leadoff hitter and steal 40 bags every year and play unbelievable defense with a gun for an arm."

Very Branch Rickey... except Rickey wouldn't have gone after a 30 year old OF and a guy the cops chased the year before and tasered him, and then all this prior...

Olsen received a black eye last season from his friend and former teammate, reliever Randy Messenger, in an off-the-field confrontation in St. Petersburg. Olsen also got into dugout disputes with teammate Miguel Cabrera and then-manager Joe Girardi, who grabbed him by the jersey during a discussion.

2007, Olsen was fined an unspecified amount in June for making an obscene gesture toward fans in Milwaukee.

Chip R

11-11-2008, 10:37 AM

Strictly speaking, the Washington Nationals cannot "rebuild". You can't "rebuild" unless you were at some point "built".

RFS told me they were pretty good back in the 1860s. ;)

REDREAD

11-11-2008, 10:47 AM

No problem with moving Willingham or Olsen as both weren't going to be back next year anyway.

BIG PROBLEM with getting nothing in return for them.

That's a fair analysis. I think Washington won on the talent exchange part of the equation. Washington makes out even if Willingham does nothing. Wash desperately needs decent SP. Olsen isn't an ace, but he's certainly a respectable pitcher. Would've like to see the Reds pick up Olsen if he was that cheap.

buckeyenut

11-11-2008, 10:48 AM

So who besides Uggla on the Marlins is interesting and available, ramp?

bucksfan2

11-11-2008, 10:58 AM

So who besides Uggla on the Marlins is interesting and available, ramp?

Hanley Ramirez :thumbup:

ramp101

11-11-2008, 06:11 PM

I've only seen him play a few times but what stands out the most is the all star game. Where he played horrible defense. Not saying he's a bad defender all the time but I wasn't impressed at all.

Uggla is an above average 2b but he does make boneheaded plays from time to time. Of course, most people just remember the All Star Game

ramp101

11-11-2008, 06:12 PM

So who besides Uggla on the Marlins is interesting and available, ramp?

Kevin Gregg, Alfredo Amezaga, Jorge Cantu, Dallas McPherson

not sure on the latter 2

Jeremy Hermida more than likely isn't available, even though the front office is supposedly split on him.

ramp101

11-11-2008, 06:14 PM

Very Branch Rickey... except Rickey wouldn't have gone after a 30 year old OF and a guy the cops chased the year before and tasered him, and then all this prior...

Olsen received a black eye last season from his friend and former teammate, reliever Randy Messenger, in an off-the-field confrontation in St. Petersburg. Olsen also got into dugout disputes with teammate Miguel Cabrera and then-manager Joe Girardi, who grabbed him by the jersey during a discussion.

2007, Olsen was fined an unspecified amount in June for making an obscene gesture toward fans in Milwaukee.

Olsen matured alot over the last season or so. It would appear that this nonsense is in the past.

Also, everyone wanted to get into a fight with Joe Girardi lol

jojo

11-12-2008, 02:14 AM

Olsen matured alot over the last season or so. It would appear that this nonsense is in the past.

Also, everyone wanted to get into a fight with Joe Girardi lol

Even so, he still has to overcome the fact that he sucks pretty badly......

Jpup

11-12-2008, 02:23 AM

Uggla is an above average 2b but he does make boneheaded plays from time to time. Of course, most people just remember the All Star Game

no way Uggla is even average. homer? :)

Bowden did well here IMO. Willingham has a nice bat and Olsen could be good if he gets his act straight.

ramp101

11-12-2008, 10:33 PM

no way Uggla is even average. homer? :)

Bowden did well here IMO. Willingham has a nice bat and Olsen could be good if he gets his act straight.

Uggla was a +4 in defense this year, good for 9th in baseball (for 2b). I assume the only game you watched of his this year outside of the Reds-Marlins was his atrocious All Star game.

ramp101

11-12-2008, 10:34 PM

Even so, he still has to overcome the fact that he sucks pretty badly......

If a 4.20era/1.30whip/less hits than innings pitched/200+ innings as a lefty 24 year old is sucking pretty badly...

ramp101

11-12-2008, 10:36 PM

Willingham is a converted catcher with a glove that is has as much worth to the team as cinder block taped to his hand, plus at 30 he's now going to be more expensive than prior, plus he's another OF on a team loaded with them.[/I]

Willingham is a converted SS initially. So it's not like he caught in college and was strictly a catcher. He caught for about 2-3 years in the minors, that's it.

Furthermore, Willingham was a +10 as an outfielder this season, good for 6th best in LF.

;)

edabbs44

11-12-2008, 10:41 PM

If a 4.20era/1.30whip/less hits than innings pitched/200+ innings as a lefty 24 year old is sucking pretty badly...

Olsen has talent. If he can harness his control and (as you said) puts the juvenile crap behind him, he has huge potential.

If his background check passes, this is the exact type of arm that teams (like Cincy) need to take chances on when the cost is minimal.

westofyou

11-12-2008, 10:54 PM

Furthermore, Willingham was a +10 as an outfielder this season, good for 6th best in LF.

;)
At the bottom in DER ratings though.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/030127.php

Jpup

11-13-2008, 01:35 AM

Uggla was a +4 in defense this year, good for 9th in baseball (for 2b). I assume the only game you watched of his this year outside of the Reds-Marlins was his atrocious All Star game.

You would assume wrong. I watch every team several times a year. I've got the baseball package on DTV and that's all I watch for months. I have never saw a defensive metric that was worth a darn. I like Uggla, but his defense is awful.

ramp101

11-13-2008, 01:54 AM

At the bottom in DER ratings though.

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/030127.php

and yet Jack Cust is in the middle of those ratings, so I don't buy much into them

jojo

11-13-2008, 07:23 AM

If a 4.20era/1.30whip/less hits than innings pitched/200+ innings as a lefty 24 year old is sucking pretty badly...

In his case, it is actually.

jojo

11-13-2008, 07:26 AM

Olsen has talent. If he can harness his control and (as you said) puts the juvenile crap behind him, he has huge potential.

If his background check passes, this is the exact type of arm that teams (like Cincy) need to take chances on when the cost is minimal.

Olsen is the prototype for the arm that Cincy should run from even if it means squealing like a schoolgirl to get away faster.

edabbs44

11-13-2008, 07:45 AM

Olsen is the prototype for the arm that Cincy should run from even if it means squealing like a schoolgirl to get away faster.

Why is that?

I'm a fan of taking chances on former hyped prospects who are still young and had a few struggles, therefore knocking down their market value a tad.

jojo

11-13-2008, 08:34 AM

Why is that?

I'm a fan of taking chances on former hyped prospects who are still young and had a few struggles, therefore knocking down their market value a tad.

But you have to look deeper to see if the above narrative has any substance-i.e. can he pitch?

He's lost 3 mph from his fastball since his rookie year. He has flyball tendencies. He hasn't posted a FIP below 5.00 since his rookie season. He's turned into a pitch to contact guy as his K rate has plummeted from impressive during his rookie season to significantly below average last year. He's a moron off the field.

The Reds already have a line forming for their #5 spot. There is no need to add a train wreck waiting to happen to the mix.

REDREAD

11-13-2008, 10:18 AM

But you have to look deeper to see if the above narrative has any substance-i.e. can he pitch?

He's lost 3 mph from his fastball since his rookie year. He has flyball tendencies. He hasn't posted a FIP below 5.00 since his rookie season. He's turned into a pitch to contact guy as his K rate has plummeted from impressive during his rookie season to significantly below average last year. He's a moron off the field.

The Reds already have a line forming for their #5 spot. There is no need to add a train wreck waiting to happen to the mix.

IMO, it's a cost/risk based decision. A team like the Reds is going to have to try to buy low on some guys or fill the team with retreads (we don't have enough quality players in the organization to field a good team).

Adding another cheap starting pitcher (be it Olson or whoever) gives the team the flexibility to trade Harang or Arroyo if a good deal is offered. I agree that both Harang and Arroyo should be dangled to other teams (eddabs has a point there).

Obviously, the cost of getting a guy like Olson (or Taveras from the other thread) is key. I wouldn't want either of these guys enough to pay a steep price, but if it's a junk for junk trade, why not? The Marlins apparently thought Olson was expendable. If you can trade a guy from the Red's farm system which you feel has less of a chance than Olson to be a productive MLB player, why not do it? The Reds can absorb the salary and might get an incremental talent increase.

jojo

11-13-2008, 10:56 AM

IMO, it's a cost/risk based decision. A team like the Reds is going to have to try to buy low on some guys or fill the team with retreads (we don't have enough quality players in the organization to field a good team).

Adding another cheap starting pitcher (be it Olson or whoever) gives the team the flexibility to trade Harang or Arroyo if a good deal is offered. I agree that both Harang and Arroyo should be dangled to other teams (eddabs has a point there).

Obviously, the cost of getting a guy like Olson (or Taveras from the other thread) is key. I wouldn't want either of these guys enough to pay a steep price, but if it's a junk for junk trade, why not? The Marlins apparently thought Olson was expendable. If you can trade a guy from the Red's farm system which you feel has less of a chance than Olson to be a productive MLB player, why not do it? The Reds can absorb the salary and might get an incremental talent increase.

He's got three years of service time so the flyer can start getting expensive fairly quickly. But again, there isn't a lot of hidden value in either the eye or the numbers. The Reds also have better options from a "chance to be productive" stand point.

edabbs44

11-13-2008, 11:53 AM

jojo

11-13-2008, 11:56 AM

Sometimes it takes a guy a year or two to learn the game. Olsen would be worth the chance IF (a) his background checks out and (b) he didn't cost much.

Personally, I think God created the Washington Nationals just for guys like Olsen.

We're not talking about an AA arm. Olsen would be on the active roster. I'd prefer that the Reds not waste their time chasing ghosts of Christmases past.

BTW, I'm not arguing against turning over rocks and grabbing the caterpillar amongst the scurrying roaches. I'm suggesting that grabbing a roach and hoping it'll turn into a butterfly is a waste of time/effort.

REDREAD

11-13-2008, 12:53 PM

BTW, I'm not arguing against turning over rocks and grabbing the caterpillar amongst the scurrying roaches. I'm suggesting that grabbing a roach and hoping it'll turn into a butterfly is a waste of time/effort.

It all depends. You might want a young roach that might improve as opposed to signing a Fogg/Stanton guy to fill out the roster.

I'd much rather Jocketty be collecting potential impact players too, but there's not a lot of trade bait to work with here.

ramp101

11-13-2008, 01:58 PM

So Olsen is an AA arm now?

I guess I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue...

edabbs44

11-13-2008, 03:04 PM

So Olsen is an AA arm now?

I guess I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue...

You and me both.

jojo

11-13-2008, 03:21 PM

So Olsen is an AA arm now?

I guess I picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue...

I've edited it to fix the erroneously missing "not".

Olson is a replacement level arm "not" not withstanding. Looking past his '08 ERA, frankly, is scary.

edabbs44

11-13-2008, 03:27 PM

I've edited it to fix the erroneously missing "not".

Olson is a replacement level arm "not" not withstanding. Looking past his '08 ERA, frankly, is scary.

If Olsen had a 7 year ML track record then I'd probably be with you. But he is still young and has time to mature both on and off the field.

jojo

11-13-2008, 03:41 PM

If Olsen had a 7 year ML track record then I'd probably be with you. But he is still young and has time to mature both on and off the field.

How does "maturation" reverse a decrease in skill level i.e. a loss of velocity and lost ability to miss bats? That's the point. You don't need "7 years" of major league data to suggest he's not likely to accrue 7 years of service time as a starter....

That's the point. This isn't the Scott Olsen of '05-'06. Arguing he's a good example of the type of arms the Reds should be trying to scoop up requires acting like his scouting report of '05 shouldn't be updated. His upside has hit him in the head.

edabbs44

11-13-2008, 03:56 PM

How does "maturation" reverse a decrease in skill level i.e. a loss of velocity and lost ability to miss bats? That's the point. You don't need "7 years" of major league data to suggest he's not likely to accrue 7 years of service time as a starter....

That's the point. This isn't the Scott Olsen of '05-'06. Arguing he's a good example of the type of arms the Reds should be trying to scoop up requires acting like his scouting report of '05 shouldn't be updated. His upside has hit him in the head.

You watch guys like Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd and other formerly highly touted youngsters bounce back from rough beginnings and you see opportunity.

I'll take my chances with Scott Olsen as my #5 any day of the week over the stiffs that this team has trotted out the past few years.

jojo

11-13-2008, 04:08 PM

You watch guys like Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd and other formerly highly touted youngsters bounce back from rough beginnings and you see opportunity.

I'll take my chances with Scott Olsen as my #5 any day of the week over the stiffs that this team has trotted out the past few years.

I think you're missing the point. Olsen would give scouts pause right now. Watching Ervin Santana on the other hand would've had scouts wondering what is taking him so long. Middling stuff isn't likely to "get put together".

Olsen doesn't fit your narrative. Why try to jam a square peg into a round hole for the sake of a philosophy? Olsen really is just last year's Josh Fogg.

edabbs44

11-13-2008, 04:30 PM

I think you're missing the point. Olsen would give scouts pause right now. Watching Ervin Santana on the other hand would've had scouts wondering what is taking him so long. Middling stuff isn't likely to "get put together".

Olsen doesn't fit your narrative. Why try to jam a square peg into a round hole for the sake of a philosophy? Olsen really is just last year's Josh Fogg.

I'm getting a little confused. Ervin Santana had a FIP of 5.21 in his third year in the majors, one where he was 24 years old.

Scott Olsen had a FIP of 4.89 in his third year in the majors, one where he was 24 years old.

I agree that Olsen's K numbers aren't exactly trending in the right direction, but Santana's bounced when he was 25. I assume that it is within the realm of possibility that Olsen's could as well.

I'd take my chances on him as long as the cost isn't too great.

jojo

11-13-2008, 04:39 PM

I'm getting a little confused. Ervin Santana had a FIP of 5.21 in his third year in the majors, one where he was 24 years old.

Scott Olsen had a FIP of 4.89 in his third year in the majors, one where he was 24 years old.

I agree that Olsen's K numbers aren't exactly trending in the right direction, but Santana's bounced when he was 25. I assume that it is within the realm of possibility that Olsen's could as well.

I'd take my chances on him as long as the cost isn't too great.

I think you're ignoring the big elephant holding the juggs gun..... explain away that elephant and your point might be more compelling.

edabbs44

11-17-2008, 10:01 AM

I think you're ignoring the big elephant holding the juggs gun..... explain away that elephant and your point might be more compelling.

Does this work for you?

From Keith Law's blog:

Olsen was a high-upside power arm, but his velocity took a big hit this year, dropping from the low-to-mid 90s to the upper 80s, although he rebounded late in the year and was touching 94 again in September. His slider still has decent bite, but it's slower and a little less sharp than it was two years ago, and he has come to rely more heavily on his changeup, a fringe-average pitch at best that is not effective against right-handed hitters. It's a sell-high moment for Florida, considering Olsen isn't likely to come close to repeating his 2008 ERA of 4.20 -- his RA was a much less attractive 4.73 -- but at the same time it's a potential upside play for Washington with the hope that Olsen's velocity rebound in September is a sign of things to come. Left-handers with Olsen's stuff when he's good are very hard to come by. One thing to bear in mind is that Olsen has had problems with alcohol and with his behavior in the past, although he apparently stayed out of trouble this season.

Maybe the Washington scouts saw something in him last season, especially since they faced him twice at the end of the year.

jojo

11-17-2008, 11:12 AM

Does this work for you?

Not really. Game day recorded 470 pitches from Olsen in September. They were classified as follows (4 were unidentifiable):

Pitch # ave mph
FB 326 87.6
CH 95 81
SL 45 81

Of those fastballs, only 32 reached a velocity of 90 mph or greater with the fastest clocking in at 91.8 mph. So about 10% of his fastballs even hit 90 and his best fastball was still barely an average fastball velocity for a major league pitcher.

The speed differential between his fastball and change is bad. It's not likely that he's fooling a lot of people with that pitch either.

Gameday suggests that whomever quoted Law the 94 mph velocity wasn't recording it during a game. There certainly is zero evidence that Olsen was gassing an above average fastball with any consistency in September. Really, there is zero evidence that he was gassing even a major league average one consistently.

Maybe the Washington scouts saw something in him last season, especially since they faced him twice at the end of the year.

According to gameday data, Olsen threw only 6 pitches to the Nationals in September that achieved at least 90 mph.

I have no idea what Washington's scouts might have seen in Olsen last September but they certainly weren't seeing him miss many bats.

edabbs44

11-17-2008, 11:29 AM

Gameday suggests that whomever quoted Law the 94 mph velocity wasn't recording it during a game. There certainly is zero evidence that Olsen was gassing an above average fastball with any consistency in September. Really, there is zero evidence that he was gassing even a major league average one consistently.

Well then someone is off, since this contradicts what Law is saying.

membengal

11-17-2008, 11:36 AM

This is a fun thread from one year ago:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=62870&highlight=Cliff+Lee

Highlights:

OBM: I would target Cliff Lee or Ervin Santana

FCB: Those are bad pitchers

In fact, that whole thread is a cautionary tale in writing off pitching, particularly pitching as young as Olsen. I think Washington made a nice deal here, and edabbs has some fine points. Far better to have Olsen as your 5th than the chaff the Reds too often run out there. Lightning, bottle, and all that.

Oh, one more from that thread, just for fun:

FCB:

And I'm just not sure where you're guessing Santana has to go, except for a tea date with Ramon Ortiz.

jojo

11-17-2008, 11:52 AM

In fact, that whole thread is a cautionary tale in writing off pitching, particularly pitching as young as Olsen. I think Washington made a nice deal here, and edabbs has some fine points. Far better to have Olsen as your 5th than the chaff the Reds too often run out there. Lightning, bottle, and all that.

But pointing to the performances of Lee and Santana in '08 as a comp for Olsen's future ignores that neither Lee nor Santana had disintegrating stuff coming into the season.

I don't think anyone is arguing that it's impossible for Olsen to become a useful major league starter. I think the argument is that there are compelling reasons to reevaluate what his realistic ceiling looks like and whether taking a flyer on him is worth the effort.

membengal

11-17-2008, 11:54 AM

I am not necessarily saying they are a direct comp, jojo. What I am saying is that young pitchers (and even older ones like Lee) sometimes have a light go on, for whatever reason. Olsen came up with enough stuff that I think he is someone for whom a light may still go on. It is FAR from unusual that might happen, in fact, it happens here and there in baseball all the time (Ed Volquez says "hey").

So, in terms of what each team got done, I sure don't hate what Washington acquired in this deal. And I don't know what "effort" was required to have him included, but I am guessing taking a shot on Olsen was probably worth that "effort".

edabbs44

11-17-2008, 12:24 PM

But pointing to the performances of Lee and Santana in '08 as a comp for Olsen's future ignores that neither Lee nor Santana had disintegrating stuff coming into the season.

I don't think anyone is arguing that it's impossible for Olsen to become a useful major league starter. I think the argument is that there are compelling reasons to reevaluate what his realistic ceiling looks like and whether taking a flyer on him is worth the effort.

Cliff Lee's career was disintegrating coming into the 2008 season.