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New Fever
11-12-2008, 04:48 PM
Three interesting Reds questions today:

Ben (Centerville, OH): Which Reds prospect has been more impressive in the Hawaiian Winter League, Yonder Alonso and his .438 OBP or Todd Frazier with his .593 slg? Could both of them finish 2009 in Cincinnati?

Jim Callis: (1:57 PM ET ) Can I take both? Not sure the Reds would promote either that soon for contract ramifications, but those are the two best prospects in the system and both can hit. Frazier won't be a SS in the majors but I could see him at 3B or in the OF.

Ben (Centerville, OH): You rank Frazier over 3B Neftali Soto who obliterated MWL pitching at 19 years old for the Reds? Soto arguably had a better year in the MWL at the same age than even Jay Bruce did. Less than 17% K rate and a .170+ isolated power.

Jim Callis: (2:00 PM ET ) Personally, I do. I think Soto is going to wind up being a 1B, so I think Frazier will give you a lot more positional value. He's more proven with the bat and may be just as productive as Soto.

Ben (Centerville, OH): Scouts in Arizona are talkin glike Chris Valaika can stick at SS in the majors, does that raise his prospect status if he can play a decent SS with his advanced bat?

Jim Callis: (2:38 PM ET ) Yes it does and I've heard the same thing. Scouts give him a better chance to stick at SS than they did when he signed, and he has hit throughout the minors.

BRM
11-12-2008, 04:51 PM
Soto winding up at 1B? Is Callis the only one saying that or is that projection more prevalent than I think it is?

dougdirt
11-12-2008, 04:52 PM
Thats the first time I have heard anyone suggest Soto winds up at first base.

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 04:58 PM
Jim Callis is about the only person I've seen who thinks Soto will wind up at first base. Everyone is in agreement that he's not a shortstop but most think he can play third base or left field.

New Fever
11-12-2008, 05:03 PM
Also Kevin Goldstein had his chat today, Reds Top 11 list tomorrow. He answered Reds questions as well.

Chris (Virginia): "fall-down range".....stop it, your killing me....I can't be laughing that loud at work....man

Kevin Goldstein: I've thought of compiling a bathroom-reading book of my favorite scout quotes. It would be awesome, but definitely not safe for work. Here's a nice exchange with a scout about Devin Mesoraco that I had for the Reds list:

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

Deywane (Memphis): Will the Reds list be out to tomorrow and will Yorman Rodriguez make it?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes to the first, and yes to the second. In fact, the last thing I did before hitting the chat was to write up Yorman.

Ryan (Cincinnati, OH): How little would Drew Stubbs need to hit for him to be a net positive?

Kevin Goldstein: You'll see tommorow? I like Stubbs, but I'm a tools sucker.

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 05:03 PM
Baseball Prospectus held a chat today also:

Kevin Goldstein: I've thought of compiling a bathroom-reading book of my favorite scout quotes. It would be awesome, but definitely not safe for work. Here's a nice exchange with a scout about Devin Mesoraco that I had for the Reds list:

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.


Deywane (Memphis): Will the Reds list be out to tomorrow and will Yorman Rodriguez make it?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes to the first, and yes to the second. In fact, the last thing I did before hitting the chat was to write up Yorman.


Ryan (Cincinnati, OH): How little would Drew Stubbs need to hit for him to be a net positive?

Kevin Goldstein: You'll see tommorow? I like Stubbs, but I'm a tools sucker.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=546

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 05:14 PM
I'm looking forward to BP's Reds prospect list. If Yorman cracked the top 11 then I'm guessing Duran did too. Alonso, Frazier, Soto, and Stubbs are also locks. Goldstein is a big Soto fan judging by his past comments but he also like Stubbs tools. It'll be interesting to see how he ranks those four. He's also a big Lotzkar fan so I expect him and Thompson to be in the top 11 along with Valaika. I also expect Juan Francisco somewhere in the top eight or nine. I'm interested in seeing who the other prospect is.

*BaseClogger*
11-12-2008, 05:19 PM
I'm interested in seeing who the other prospect is.

I'd wager it will be one of these four: Mesoraco, Dorn, Stewart, or Roenicke...

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 05:22 PM
I'd wager it will be one of these four: Mesoraco, Dorn, Stewart, or Roenicke...

That what I was thinking. I don't think it will be Mesoraco though. I predict it will be Roenicke.

*BaseClogger*
11-12-2008, 05:25 PM
That what I was thinking. I don't think it will be Mesoraco though. I predict it will be Roenicke.

If I remember he wasn't high on Dorn because of his tools, so yeah Roenicke is a good guess because he is more advanced than Stewart...

edit: of course personally I would take all three over Roenicke.

BRM
11-12-2008, 05:38 PM
That what I was thinking. I don't think it will be Mesoraco though. I predict it will be Roenicke.

You think Roenicke will rank higher than starters like Maloney or Ramirez?

New Fever
11-12-2008, 05:42 PM
Don't count out Juan Carlos Sulberan, Goldstein list is mostly about upside.

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 05:52 PM
You think Roenicke will rank higher than starters like Maloney or Ramirez?

I forgot about Ramon Ramirez. Someone (can't remember who) on BP really likes Ramirez but I'm not sure how Goldstein feels about him. I doubt if he cracks the top 11 since he just turned 26.

BRM
11-12-2008, 06:08 PM
I forgot about Ramon Ramirez. Someone (can't remember who) on BP really likes Ramirez but I'm not sure how Goldstein feels about him. I doubt if he cracks the top 11 since he just turned 26.

Roenicke is 26 as well. I know he was converted to pitching late but he is still 26 years old.

Kc61
11-12-2008, 06:17 PM
Roenicke is 26 as well. I know he was converted to pitching late but he is still 26 years old.

Have you seen his fastball?

All this analysis of prospects sometimes misses the point that many of the candidates don't have the physical talent to be probable top players. There are some highly rated in the RedsZone list who are skilled players, someday may be reasonable major leaguers, but don't seem to have outstanding physical talent that would likely make them plus major leaguers.

Roenicke needs polish, needs to use his secondary pitches better, etc., etc., etc.

But he is a big reliever who can throw the ball through a brick wall and also has ground ball tendencies.

Of course he should be on any list of the Reds top prospects. Even at 26 years old.

BRM
11-12-2008, 06:20 PM
Have you seen his fastball?

All this analysis of prospects sometimes misses the point that many of the candidates don't have the physical talent to be probable top players. There are some highly rated in the RedsZone list who are skilled players, someday may be reasonable major leaguers, but don't have outstanding physical talent.

Roenicke needs polish, needs to use his secondary pitches better, etc., etc., etc.

But he is a big reliever who can throw the ball through a brick wall and also has ground ball tendencies.

Of course he should be on any list of the Reds top prospects. Even at 26 years old.

I wasn't saying he shouldn't be on the list. OBM said that Ramirez would likely be left off the list primarily due to being 26 years old while Roenicke would probably be on it. I was merely pointing out that the two are the same age.

lollipopcurve
11-12-2008, 06:21 PM
Someone (can't remember who) on BP really likes Ramirez but I'm not sure how Goldstein feels about him. I doubt if he cracks the top 11 since he just turned 26.

He should be in the top 11, in my opinion. He showed he was ready to hit the ground running.

Kc61
11-12-2008, 06:25 PM
I wasn't saying he shouldn't be on the list. OBM said that Ramirez would likely be left off the list primarily due to being 26 years old while Roenicke would probably be on it. I was merely pointing out that the two are the same age.

Up until this year, I wasn't that high on Ramirez and I didn't think the Reds were very high on him. It looked as if they had given up on him as a starter and I had always heard that he was lacked projection.

But he certainly has held up well in the upper levels. Just shows you that sometimes a prospect needs some time to mature. In Ramirez' case, the Reds deserve credit for sticking with him and giving him a major league shot at age 26.

I certainly would rather have Ramirez on the Reds next year, in some role, as compared to Fogg, Belisle, Majewski, and perhaps other pitchers the Reds had this year.

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 06:36 PM
Roenicke is 26 as well. I know he was converted to pitching late but he is still 26 years old.

Very good point. Ramirez just may crack the top 11 after all. He's definitely worthy of it IMO.

BRM
11-12-2008, 06:39 PM
Very good point. Ramirez just may crack the top 11 after all. He's definitely worthy of it IMO.

It would be a tough call for me between the two. What's more valuable, a 4/5 starter or a late-inning reliever?

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 06:49 PM
I think I would take 200 IP of 4.00 ERA over 60 IP of 2.50 ERA. It's really a toss up for me between Ramirez and Roenicke. I chose Roenicke ahead of RR in my top 40 prospect list, but I may re-think that.

BRM
11-12-2008, 06:58 PM
200 IP of 4.0 ERA makes him a #3 though. That definitely changes the comparison because I've always been told his ceiling is a 4/5.

*BaseClogger*
11-12-2008, 07:37 PM
I like that Ramirez has the versatility to become a 4th/5th starter, and if that doesn't work out, there is still a good chance he could be a more effective reliever than Roenicke...

Kc61
11-12-2008, 07:38 PM
I think I would take 200 IP of 4.00 ERA over 60 IP of 2.50 ERA. It's really a toss up for me between Ramirez and Roenicke. I chose Roenicke ahead of RR in my top 40 prospect list, but I may re-think that.

Please explain why you think Ramirez can hold up for 200 innings of major league ball at a 4 ERA. He threw 145 innings at three levels last year.

*BaseClogger*
11-12-2008, 07:46 PM
Please explain why you think Ramirez can hold up for 200 innings of major league ball at a 4 ERA. He threw 145 innings at three levels last year.

Wasn't he reliever for part of that time though? Plus I don't think OBM specifically meant 2009. We were talking potential of prospects...

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 07:58 PM
Wasn't he reliever for part of that time though? Plus I don't think OBM specifically meant 2009. We were talking potential of prospects...

Yep. I wasn't really talking specifically about Ramirez and Roenicke. I'm just saying I would rather have a solid starter (200 IP at 4.00 ERA) over a great reliever (60 IP, 2.50 ERA) most of the time. As for Ramirez's ceiling, right now I think he could be a solid starter (170 IP at 4.40 to 4.50 ERA) but that could change if he improves his slider.

JayBruceFan
11-12-2008, 10:52 PM
Soto winding up at 1B? Is Callis the only one saying that or is that projection more prevalent than I think it is?

Soto played first base in Dayton and during the Instructional League this year

OnBaseMachine
11-12-2008, 11:17 PM
Soto played first base in Dayton and during the Instructional League this year

Soto played 52 games with Dayton and played a total of two games at first base.

JayBruceFan
11-13-2008, 02:28 AM
Seemed like more than that

He was there a lot during BP though