View Full Version : NFL Picks: Week 11

11-13-2008, 08:24 AM

NFL Week Eleven Picks, Pats, and Apologies

Last Week: 9-5
Season: 97-47
Record Picking Redskins Games: 5-4
Against the Spread: 19-18-2
Lock of the Week: 4-5-1

Last Week's Pats: I had a feeling the Colts would find a way to win in Pittsburgh, and that feeling came through for me.

Last Week's Apologies: My other "feelings?" Not so much. I went 1-3 against the spread and the three games I lost were by ridiculous margins. I also messed up my Lock of the Week yet again. And apologies to the Giants, who I thought might take a night off in Philly. The Giants have the best offense in the NFL by a mile. It's truly a pick your poison scenerio when gameplanning for them.

This Week's Picks:

New York Jets at New England: The Jets have played very well the past several weeks, but I guess you could say I'm still drinking the Patriot Kool-Aid. New England has quietly gotten into a bit of a groove and Matt Casell is beginning to look more comfortable. When in doubt, take the Pats.

Patriots 27, Jets 21

Denver at Atlanta: I'm sure Falcons fans will see this as the ultimate sign of disrespect seeing I've picked against them the past two weeks and got burned each time. But it's hard to ignore my gut, and my gut smells upset this week.

Broncos 30, Falcons 27

Detroit at Carolina: Good grief. If the Panthers can beat the Raiders by 11 with Jake Delhomme possibly having the worst game for a QB in NFL history, imagine what they'll do to the Lions if he's just average.

Panthers 31, Lions 10

Chicago at Green Bay: The Bears and Vikings are getting most of the attention in the NFC North right now, but I think the Packers will find themselves in a three-way tie at the top after they beat Chicago this week.

Packers 28, Bears 20

Houston at Indianapolis: I am officially off the Texans bandwagon. I mean it this time.

Colts 29, Texans 17

New Orleans at Kansas City: The Chiefs are playing very hard right now and Tyler Thigpen is showing that he may have a future in this league. But there is a reason the Chiefs are 1-8, and even though the Saints couldn't stop the Kansas City Groundhogs 55 and up flag football team, let alone the Kansas City Chiefs, I see the Saints scoring just enough to pull it out.

Saints 34, Chiefs 27

Oakland at Miami: The Dolphins are going to wake up on Monday morning with a 6-4 record and in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Dolphins fans across the country will continue to pinch themselves.

Dolphins 20, Raiders 13

Baltimore at New York Giants: I have officially decided to start taking the Ravens seriously. I wanted to see if their offense could sustain their above average production, and now that they've done just that for several weeks, I'm convinced this team is legit. Having said that, they are playing on the road against the best team in the league this week. I have a feeling Joe Flacco may have a tough afternoon.

Giants 23, Ravens 13

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: A team can only get by with horrid QB play for so long. Gus Frerotte looked miserable last week against the Packers; the Bucs will make him look much worse.

Bucs 20, Vikings 16

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: The Bengals had two weeks to celebrate their first and only win of the season. I hope they soaked it in.

Eagles 30, Bengals 17

St. Louis at San Francisco: Mike Martz blamed the loss last week on the refs for not telling them where the ball was going to be spotted prior to the last play of the game. Martz said they couldn't tell where the ball was from the sidelines and therefore, they stuck with the play that was originally called. While I understand his complaint, how about blaming QB Shaun Hill? He was ON the field. He KNEW where the ball was spotted. He could have easily used his brain, spiked the ball to stop the clock and made sure to get a better play called. Martz's whining doesn't resonate with me on this one. I can't believe I've spent so much time talking about this game.

49ers 17, Rams 16

Arizona at Seattle: The Cardinals could sleepwalk through the rest of the season and still win the NFC West handily. That is exactly what I see happening this week.

Seahawks 24, Cardinals 19

Tennessee at Jacksonville: I picked the Colts to beat the Titans. Wrong. I picked the Packers to beat the Titans. Wrong. I got smart last week and picked the Titans to beat the Bears. Right. So, I've learned my lesson? Wrong. I see the schizo Jags ending the winning streak on Sunday.

Jaguars 19, Titans 16

San Diego at Pittsburgh: Chargers are catching the Steelers at a very bad time. What are the chances Pittsburgh loses three home games in a row?

Steelers 27, Chargers 17

Dallas at Washington: Even if Clinton Portis was 100% healthy, I have a feeling the Cowboys show up on Sunday Night and get themselves back into the playoff picture in the NFC.

Cowboys 27, Redskins 20


I am 0-2 when changing picks this year. I was "talked in" to changing my pick in the Steelers-Redskins game with disasterous results. But the above pick just made me feel too dirty. New pick:

Redskins 23, Cowboys 20

Cleveland at Buffalo: The Browns are done-- just ask their players. The Bills are fading. I'll take "fading" over "quitting."

Bills 22, Browns 21

4 To Score

Lock of the Week

Broncos (+5.5) at Falcons: If you fail, try, try again.

2. Seahawks (+3) vs. Cardinals: Hasslebeck's return is a big factor here.
3. Steelers (-3.5) vs. Chargers. That half point is always frustrating, but I see Pittsburgh taking care of business this week.
4. Raiders (+10) at Dolphins. Don't ask me why.

11-13-2008, 02:46 PM
The Bears will beat the Packers. For whatever reason, Lovie Smith has always had a good game plan to beat green bay every season. Smith's first goal after taking over as head coach was to "beat the Packers" and he has kept to that goal, making bears fans like me happy. He is 6-2 against the Packers and he is a perfect 4-0 at Lambeau field. I don't understand why the Bears under Lovie are randomly good against the packers, there really isn't any statistical evidence to support it, but they are and I'm blindly following my faith here by predicting a Bears win

11-13-2008, 04:01 PM
i wouldn't bet on a denver win without a runnin game.

i don't think this is the week for the first titans loss. just a hunch.

and dallas has to be thrilled to have romo back. there'll be alot of pressure on romo to deliver in dc. hope i can see that game.

11-13-2008, 04:33 PM
i wouldn't bet on a denver win without a runnin game.

Or a defense.

11-14-2008, 05:00 PM
Glad you were wrong on the Jets prediction. I had picked them to win 28-10 and early on it looked like I was being conservative. It ended up being an ugly win but it is certainly better than the alternative.