PDA

View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
11-15-2008, 11:23 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart

OnBaseMachine
11-15-2008, 11:40 PM
I went with Josh Roenicke slightly ahead of Ramon Ramirez. I actually debated on putting Ramirez at #15 and slotting Roenicke in at #16. I think Ramirez could develop into a league average starter but there's also a chance he ends up in the bullpen. If that happens, Roenicke has the higher ceiling IMO.

Grande Donkey
11-15-2008, 11:42 PM
Give me Juan Carlos

mace
11-16-2008, 12:10 AM
I know that Hanigan's an unsexy vote, but he's a guy who hit well at AAA, gets on base, has good plate discipline, is respected for his defense and by all accounts calls a good game. With decent catchers so hard to come by, that's a heck of a package.

Kc61
11-16-2008, 12:42 AM
Roenicke should have been about 8 or 9 so maybe he'll get 15.

JayBruceFan
11-16-2008, 12:52 AM
Heisey

fearofpopvol1
11-16-2008, 12:59 AM
Ramirez. I think he could fill in the #5 spot in the rotation for 2009 and very easily put up an ERA in the 4.50-4.75 range, possibly better. That's not too shabby for a #5 starter (and for the Reds rotation no less)!

HokieRed
11-16-2008, 01:08 AM
Hildenbrandt. Ceiling matters.

OnBaseMachine
11-16-2008, 02:10 AM
I'm bored. Just for kicks:

http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[DURAN]&set=key[number],value[27]&set=key[displaysize],value[500]&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/pG01-3483879_customback.chain]

http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[RODRIGUEZ]&set=key[number],value[44]&set=key[displaysize],value[500]&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/pG01-3483879_customback.chain]

http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[SOTO]&set=key[number],value[12]&set=key[displaysize],value[500]&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/pG01-3483879_customback.chain]

http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[ALONSO]&set=key[number],value[23]&set=key[displaysize],value[500]&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/pG01-3483879_customback.chain]

http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[FRAZIER]&set=key[number],value[35]&set=key[displaysize],value[500]&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/pG01-3483879_customback.chain]

http://lp.imageg.net/prod?set=key[name],value[SULBARAN]&set=key[number],value[49]&set=key[displaysize],value[500]&load=url[http://chains.imageg.net/graphics/dynamic/chains/pG01-3483879_customback.chain]

Mario-Rijo
11-16-2008, 02:16 AM
I gotta go with Ramirez here. Roenicke still has a ways to go with his command/control, so while his ceiling is much higher his odds aren't. I like him but I like a few better.

Might I add OBM that you consider replacing Jukich with Wood. Wood has the higher ceiling, 4 years younger and pitched decent at the same level Jukich did better but didn't blow anyone away himself. I understand everyones willingness to think Wood may not make it but he still is only 21 and still is a solid prospect.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 03:56 AM
Carlos Fisher. Big time groundball guy, plenty of strikeouts with good stuff.

camisadelgolf
11-16-2008, 04:10 AM
I went with Cozart again. The only question is if he'll hit enough to be a starting shortstop. A starting shortstop with a .750 OPS and superb defense is worth more than a middle reliever or setup man with a 3.50 ERA, in my opinion.

Kc61
11-16-2008, 09:04 AM
I gotta go with Ramirez here. Roenicke still has a ways to go with his command/control, so while his ceiling is much higher his odds aren't. I like him but I like a few better.

.

Interesting comment about command/control since Ramirez had a 3.81 walk rate at AAA last year, quite a bit higher than Roenicke's 3.23. Roenicke also had a better strikeout rate, his was 9.92. (Ramirez 8.43). Roenicke allowed only 4 home runs in a full minor league season last year.

Ramirez' success last year was his low number of hits allowed, whether that was good fortune and good defense we'll find out presumably. Of the two, Roenicke is a better prospect IMO, has the frame and stuff to be a big time reliever. He got a late start, just a question of a bit more polish.

When you look at Roenicke's physical ability, frame, and success in the high minors, he projects better than many of the guys already selected and should be considered a top ten prospect in this system.

mth123
11-16-2008, 09:44 AM
I went with Cozart again. The only question is if he'll hit enough to be a starting shortstop. A starting shortstop with a .750 OPS and superb defense is worth more than a middle reliever or setup man with a 3.50 ERA, in my opinion.

The Reds prospect list is very difficult to rate and I said early on that after the top 3, you could make a credible case for any order for the next 15 or 20 guys. Forgetting the guys below Dayton who there just isn't enough information on yet, the prospect list gets pretty muddled. Kyle Lotzkar has to answer a question about his arm and with Homer Bailey ineligible, no other starter candidate looks to be much more than a #5/swingman type. The bullpen guys look like a bunch of middle relievers with only Stewart and Roenicke with the power arms for a set-up role. Fisher, Manuel etc look like they could be valuable multi-inning guys but that may not be a rare enough commodity to rate them this high. The position player ranks have a lot of useful guys but many don't seem to project as 600 PA Mainstays. Alonso probably is at 1B and Soto probably is at 3B. Beyond those two there are a lot of questions. Can Todd Frazier find a position or will the Reds be forced to deal him to the AL where he can DH? Will Valaika be able to play defensively where his bat would look good? Can Dickerson, Heisey or Stubbs become a day in day out CF or are they all 4th OF/platoon guys who get exposed with too much playing time? Will Juan Francisco make enough contact to play at upper levels? Can Sean Henry or Shaun Cumberland be more than reserves? Will Devin Mesoraco improve enough defensively to stick at catcher? Will Danny Dorn ever be more than a platoon player?

If you think about it, beyond Alonso and Soto, Zach Cozart may have the best shot of being an everyday player of anybody in the system. His glove is solid at SS without question and his bat may just be able to get by at a spot with such a low bar offensively. His 2008 power surge is pretty encouraging. I think he could be a young cheap version of Alex Gonzalez with strong defense, some pop and a weak OBP. Its not ideal, but that can play at SS and be valuable while healthy and cheap. I have him at number 9 on my personal list and he's my pick here just ahead of Roenicke.

Kc61
11-16-2008, 11:16 AM
If you think about it, beyond Alonso and Soto, Zach Cozart may have the best shot of being an everyday player of anybody in the system. His glove is solid at SS without question and his bat may just be able to get by at a spot with such a low bar offensively. His 2008 power surge is pretty encouraging. I think he could be a young cheap version of Alex Gonzalez with strong defense, some pop and a weak OBP. Its not ideal, but that can play at SS and be valuable while healthy and cheap. I have him at number 9 on my personal list and he's my pick here just ahead of Roenicke.


I agree that Cozart is underrated in this poll. In particular, it's hard to see how Valaika is rated so much higher. Sure Valaika has a far more advanced bat, but shortstop is such an important defensive position that Cozart's defensive ability has to be given heavy weight.

I have Valaika at 9 and Cozart at 13.

LoganBuck
11-16-2008, 11:58 AM
I went Ramirez, past Roenicke who I vote for next time. I will give Dallas Buck, Evan Hildenbrandt, and Juan Carlos Sulbaran my next votes, and then I don't care about the ranking of the rest. I see the rest as either not enough info or not enough talent.

RedlegJake
11-16-2008, 12:18 PM
I think you can take everyone left on the list and just rank them 15a, 15b, 15c etc. Any one of them could break out and any one of them could disappoint. Each has his own warts and own strengths to bring to the discussion. I just voted for the first guy listed as I have the last three or four rounds. I think it makes that much difference.

TRF
11-16-2008, 12:42 PM
Maloney. results matter.

Danny Serafini
11-16-2008, 12:46 PM
I'm still going with Ramon Ramirez. Maybe the 10th time picking him will be the charm.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 03:02 PM
Maloney. results matter.

Results matter some. In the minors, they aren't the be all end all like they are in the majors.

Kc61
11-16-2008, 03:09 PM
Maloney. results matter.

Maloney had a 4.68 ERA in 140 AAA innings this year.

If results matter, IMO Maloney isn't in the conversation at number 15 with Roenicke and Ramirez still on the board.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 03:16 PM
Maloney had a 4.68 ERA in 140 AAA innings this year.

If results matter, IMO Maloney isn't in the conversation at number 15 with Roenicke and Ramirez still on the board.

In Maloney's defense, his FIP was a bit better than that, sitting at 4.11.

mth123
11-16-2008, 03:18 PM
In Maloney's defense, his FIP was a bit better than that, sitting at 4.11.

So maybe we should say theoretical results matter.:dunno:

TRF
11-16-2008, 03:20 PM
Results matter some. In the minors, they aren't the be all end all like they are in the majors.

And I believe he was injured a bit.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 03:23 PM
So maybe we should say theoretical results matter.:dunno:

Lol maybe. I put more faith into FIP projecting forward than ERA, especially given that the player will be changing parks and defenses. Still though, I don't think either correlates all that well to future MLB performance.

mth123
11-16-2008, 03:27 PM
Lol maybe. I put more faith into FIP projecting forward than ERA, especially given that the player will be changing parks and defenses. Still though, I don't think either correlates all that well to future MLB performance.

Me too. But FIP is not results. Its kind of like showing your work on an exam (that was long, long time ago for me). You can still get some credit without getting the right answer or have credit removed for simply guessing correctly.

TRF
11-16-2008, 03:28 PM
Maloney has had very good K rates at just about every level. Decent control, and solid advancement. I'd say he's ready to compete for a starting job in the rotation.

Kc61
11-16-2008, 03:35 PM
Maloney has had very good K rates at just about every level. Decent control, and solid advancement. I'd say he's ready to compete for a starting job in the rotation.

Maloney's best chance would be in San Diego, San Francisco, or another big stadium. He is good at keeping guys off base, but allows a lot of long balls. 18 homers in 140 innings against AAA hitter last year.

Just to simplify, his homer rate translates to 27 homers allowed for 210 innings -- at the AAA level. Consider what that number would be at cozy GABP against major league hitters.

Yes, he strikes out some guys (8 plus per game last year, pretty decent for AAA) and walks relatively few. But the long ball has always been the issue and he hasn't as yet overcome this tendency.

Mario-Rijo
11-16-2008, 03:48 PM
Interesting comment about command/control since Ramirez had a 3.81 walk rate at AAA last year, quite a bit higher than Roenicke's 3.23. Roenicke also had a better strikeout rate, his was 9.92. (Ramirez 8.43). Roenicke allowed only 4 home runs in a full minor league season last year.

Ramirez' success last year was his low number of hits allowed, whether that was good fortune and good defense we'll find out presumably. Of the two, Roenicke is a better prospect IMO, has the frame and stuff to be a big time reliever. He got a late start, just a question of a bit more polish.

When you look at Roenicke's physical ability, frame, and success in the high minors, he projects better than many of the guys already selected and should be considered a top ten prospect in this system.

I'm basing it more on what I seen at the big league level and admittedly didn't really look at the #'s too deeply. That said I will admit that the small sample of each I seen wasn't enough to make the best decision. But here's the rub IMO Ramirez has 2 solid pitches Roenicke just 1 to this point. So Roenicke's #'s are a function of using 1 dominating pitch on AAA guys, while Ramirez doesn't have that dominating pitch he has "pitched" his way to his #'s with 2 solid pitches.

Roenicke still has a far higher ceiling but until he can at least get 1 more pitch working for him he is what he is, a guy we have all seen before who has that dominating pitch, nothing to go with it and never finds it.

TRF
11-16-2008, 04:24 PM
Maloney's best chance would be in San Diego, San Francisco, or another big stadium. He is good at keeping guys off base, but allows a lot of long balls. 18 homers in 140 innings against AAA hitter last year.

Just to simplify, his homer rate translates to 27 homers allowed for 210 innings -- at the AAA level. Consider what that number would be at cozy GABP against major league hitters.

Yes, he strikes out some guys (8 plus per game last year, pretty decent for AAA) and walks relatively few. But the long ball has always been the issue and he hasn't as yet overcome this tendency.

Harang gives up his fai share of HR's too. If you keep guys off base that doesn't hurt as much.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 04:30 PM
Harang gives up his fai share of HR's too. If you keep guys off base that doesn't hurt as much.

That is true. Maloney doesn't have near the stuff that Harang does though.

Kc61
11-16-2008, 04:37 PM
Roenicke still has a far higher ceiling but until he can at least get 1 more pitch working for him he is what he is, a guy we have all seen before who has that dominating pitch, nothing to go with it and never finds it.

Roenicke as someone who "never finds it."

Roenicke has been highly effective at every level. BA voted him the best relief candidate in High A FSL in 2007. He has a big time fastball which puts him in the class of potential top late inning relievers and has harnessed it well in the upper minors.

He's more than potential, he's performance. Take the time to look at the numbers -- he's advanced quicky and done well at every level.

Very few relievers have two great pitches. It's just a question of knowing when to go with the secondary pitch and when to stick to the fastball. Roenicke is almost there. I saw his September callup, he didn't seem comfortable and didn't get much of a chance. I think those few innings are meaningless.

I can see folks putting him behind Lotzkar and Stewart -- I think it's close and don't necessarily agree, but I can see it. But behind Maloney and Ramirez, nah.

TRF
11-16-2008, 04:40 PM
That is true. Maloney doesn't have near the stuff that Harang does though.


Harang at this point didn't have near the stuff that Harang does now. Plus Maloney is LH. Not saying he will exceed or even equal Harang, but there is a lot to like about him.

LoganBuck
11-16-2008, 04:50 PM
Harang gives up his fai share of HR's too. If you keep guys off base that doesn't hurt as much.

What about Maloney's 88 mph fastball? Does that portend success at the next level? My guess is major league hitters would tee off on him. Those 27 homers translate to 35 at the major league level. I don't see him keeping runners off base.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 04:51 PM
Harang at this point didn't have near the stuff that Harang does now. Plus Maloney is LH. Not saying he will exceed or even equal Harang, but there is a lot to like about him.

Maloney throws 87-90 MPH. Harang has always had much strong velocity than that. Harang never had HR problems in the minor leagues either. In 307 innings between A+ and AA he allowed 19 HR's. Maloney simply doesn't offer the same projection that Harang did. His numbers are slightly better than Harangs were in the minors (slightly better WHIP 1.20 to 1.23) and better K rate, but Harang had the better walk rate, better HR rate, better stuff, better size and Harang pitched 200 innings in the Texas League and the PCL (notorious hitters leagues) while Maloney has never pitched in a hitters league.

TRF
11-16-2008, 04:55 PM
What about Maloney's 88 mph fastball? Does that portend success at the next level? My guess is major league hitters would tee off on him. Those 27 homers translate to 35 at the major league level. I don't see him keeping runners off base.


It isn't how hard you throw. Bailey is an example of that. It's the difference in the speed of your FB and your offspeed stuff, plus movement. Maloney doesn't walk a lot of guys, doesn't give up a lot of hits. He can succeed at the major league level.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 05:02 PM
It isn't how hard you throw. Bailey is an example of that. It's the difference in the speed of your FB and your offspeed stuff, plus movement. Maloney doesn't walk a lot of guys, doesn't give up a lot of hits. He can succeed at the major league level.

He doesn't give up a lot of hits to minor leaguers. Neither did Jeremy Sowers.

Mario-Rijo
11-16-2008, 05:02 PM
Roenicke as someone who "never finds it."

Roenicke has been highly effective at every level. BA voted him the best relief candidate in High A in 2007. He has a big time fastball which puts him in the class of potential top late inning relievers and has harnessed it well in the upper minors.

He's more than potential, he's performance. Take the time to look at the numbers -- he's advanced quicky and done well at every level.

Very few relievers have two great pitches. It's just a question of knowing when to go with the secondary pitch and when to stick to the fastball. Roenicke is almost there. I saw his September callup, he didn't seem comfortable and didn't get much of a chance. I think those few innings are meaningless.

I can see folks putting him behind Lotzkar and Stewart -- I think it's close and don't necessarily agree, but I can see it. But behind Maloney and Ramirez, nah.

But what even respectable secondary pitch does he have to keep 'em honest? You can't just throw any old pitch up there it has to be a somewhat quality pitch. Otherwise the opponent is gonna sit on one or the other.

TRF
11-16-2008, 05:15 PM
He doesn't give up a lot of hits to minor leaguers. Neither did Jeremy Sowers.

Neither did Tim Lincecum. The answer could very well bee in the middle.

At some point results just matter.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 05:22 PM
Neither did Tim Lincecum. The answer could very well bee in the middle.

At some point results just matter.

Except Maloney is a lot more Sowers than he is Lincecum and its absurd to try and use that as a comparison. Sowers is a soft tossing lefty who had some control in the minors but didn't project all to well. Lincecum is an extremely hard throwing righty who got better in the control department as he moved up and projected very well for as long as he could stay healthy.

SMcGavin
11-16-2008, 05:30 PM
Pitchers cannot control the percentage of fly balls that leave the park. The only ways that pitchers control their HR rates are to strike out batters so less balls are put in play, or force the balls that are in play to be hit on the ground.

When Matt Maloney allowed only 5 HR in 169 IP in 2006, it didn't mean he had a magical ability to prevent fly balls from going out. When he gave up 18 HR last year, it didn't mean he had converted from being the best in world at preventing HRs to suddenly being the worst at it. In 2006 he was really lucky. Last year he was really unlucky. Neither has any bearing on his future.

And another in a long line of "disproving ridiculous comparisons to Matt Maloney":

Jeremy Sowers, age 24, AAA: 5.7 K/9
Matt Maloney, age 24, AAA: 8.4 K/9

They're twins I tell you!

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 05:41 PM
Pitchers cannot control the percentage of fly balls that leave the park. The only ways that pitchers control their HR rates are to strike out batters so less balls are put in play, or force the balls that are in play to be hit on the ground.

When Matt Maloney allowed only 5 HR in 169 IP in 2006, it didn't mean he had a magical ability to prevent fly balls from going out. When he gave up 18 HR last year, it didn't mean he had converted from being the best in world at preventing HRs to suddenly being the worst at it. In 2006 he was really lucky. Last year he was really unlucky. Neither has any bearing on his future.

And another in a long line of "disproving ridiculous comparisons to Matt Maloney":

Jeremy Sowers, age 24, AAA: 5.7 K/9
Matt Maloney, age 24, AAA: 8.4 K/9

They're twins I tell you!

A pitcher can control it somewhere. In 2006 Maloney was playing in Low A against guys who don't have power. in 2008 he was playing against grown men.

As for your Sowers numbers.... those were after he had already thrown 90 innings in the majors. Sowers from age 22-23 he allowed 219 hits in 256.2 innings and he struck out 203 batters and walked just 58 batters. Eventually it all caught up to him because he didn't have a plus pitch and threw in the high 80's. Guys that don't have good velocity better have a plus pitch to go with very good control or they are going to be in trouble in the majors. Sowers stuff is very comparable to that of Matt Maloney. Very comparable in both speeds of pitches thrown, as well as all 4 of the same pitches.

SMcGavin
11-16-2008, 06:13 PM
A pitcher can control it somewhere.

Nope. It's chance.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 06:21 PM
Nope. It's chance.

Its not chance. You are trying to tell me its chance that really good pitchers give up fewer HR's than really bad ones? There is a range at which is generally acknowledge as average in the majors ~11% per FB. The problem is, in the minor leagues, the talent level isn't even close to being as close as it is in the majors. In the minor leagues there are some guys head and shoulders above others in talent and some guys way below other guys. In the majors there is lucky and unlucky to a point, but the guy that gives up a HR 14% per FB for his career, he hasn't been unlucky his whole career, he probably has been bad his whole career. The majors and minors are two entirely different animals. Using major league idea's as far as numbers go to suggest something about minor league numbers doesn't really work.

camisadelgolf
11-16-2008, 06:30 PM
I think the problem is that you two have different definitions of 'chance'. Let's move on, shall we? :D

SMcGavin
11-16-2008, 07:01 PM
Its not chance. You are trying to tell me its chance that really good pitchers give up fewer HR's than really bad ones? There is a range at which is generally acknowledge as average in the majors ~11% per FB. The problem is, in the minor leagues, the talent level isn't even close to being as close as it is in the majors. In the minor leagues there are some guys head and shoulders above others in talent and some guys way below other guys. In the majors there is lucky and unlucky to a point, but the guy that gives up a HR 14% per FB for his career, he hasn't been unlucky his whole career, he probably has been bad his whole career. The majors and minors are two entirely different animals. Using major league idea's as far as numbers go to suggest something about minor league numbers doesn't really work.

Really good pitchers give up fewer HRs than really bad ones, both at the major and minor league level, because they allow fewer guys to put the ball in play. Not because they have a lower HR/F.

You are saying HR/F data doesn't apply to the minor leagues. Which is ridiculous of course, the average is going to be lower than the 11% that it is in the majors, but there is some average which everyone will regress towards. Do the principles of BABIP not apply to the minors either? They aren't "major league ideas", they're principles of baseball. After reading your reasoning I find it hard to believe that you've ever thought about why HR/F wouldn't translate to the minors other than just now as you tried to refute my point.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 07:17 PM
Really good pitchers give up fewer HRs than really bad ones, both at the major and minor league level, because they allow fewer guys to put the ball in play. Not because they have a lower HR/F.

You are saying HR/F data doesn't apply to the minor leagues. Which is ridiculous of course, the average is going to be lower than the 11% that it is in the majors, but there is some average which everyone will regress towards. Do the principles of BABIP not apply to the minors either? They aren't "major league ideas", they're principles of baseball. After reading your reasoning I find it hard to believe that you've ever thought about why HR/F wouldn't translate to the minors other than just now as you tried to refute my point.

The principal of a .300 BABIP doesn't really apply as far as someone being lucky or unlucky in the minors. You have guys who can't field playing out of position, terrible fields and bad pitching. As for HR in the majors, its not the total number of HR's allowed, its more of a flyball/groundball issue. Maloney gives up lots and lots of fly balls. With low velocity and no plus pitch really, he isn't going to have normal HR numbers. You are right, strikeouts keep the ball out of play, but when the ball goes in play, some guys give up more HR than others for different reasons. Some guys just pitch up and aren't good and get beat around (Eric Milton), some guys play in bad parks that boost HR numbers (Cincy and Colorado jump to mind).... some guys just give up a ton of fly balls which leads to their 8-12% HR/FB to lead to a lot more HR than other guys. Maloney is that type of guy who works up in the zone too often and gives up a whole lot of fly balls. He even played in a park this year that surpressed HR's by 3% over the last 3 seasons. Maloney allowed a HR 7% of the time he allowed a fly ball. He wasn't unlucky at all, he just gave up a ton of fly balls and he projects to continue doing so in the future. He is just going to be a pitcher who gives up HR's.

SMcGavin
11-16-2008, 07:49 PM
The principal of a .300 BABIP doesn't really apply as far as someone being lucky or unlucky in the minors.

Well, the average is different. .300 won't be the average. But the principle is the same. There is an average BABIP that everyone regresses to.


Maloney allowed a HR 7% of the time he allowed a fly ball.

No, he didn't. It was 11%. You are probably getting the 7% from firstinning.com... that is HR/Air. A different stat, one that includes both fly balls and line drives.

Using Maloney's other peripherals and the league average for HR/F, minorleaguesplits had his expected HR/F at 7.5%. With that rate he'd have given up 12 HR on the season instead of 18, and his FIP would have dropped to 3.36. Maloney was very unlucky in the HR/F category in 2008. It has no effect on what he's going to do going forward.

redsof72
11-16-2008, 08:13 PM
I can't start threads, but thought some might find this interesting. I had a conversation with a Reds minor league player recently. This particular player is one that I consider to be highly intelligent and a great student of the game. I asked him for his top six prospects in the organization. He based this on what he saw this season and in instructional league. I guess this goes to show how opinions can vary on these matters. His top six, in order were:

1) Stubbs
2) Valaika
3) Soto
4) Alonso
5) Frazier
6) Thompson

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 08:18 PM
Well, the average is different. .300 won't be the average. But the principle is the same. There is an average BABIP that everyone regresses to. Yeah, but I think that it will vary from year to year and league to league rather than just a 'minor league BABIP average'. I think we are on the same pitch.




No, he didn't. It was 11%. You are probably getting the 7% from firstinning.com... that is HR/Air. A different stat, one that includes both fly balls and line drives. You are right that I got them from Firstinning.com, but line drives can be HR's as well.



Using Maloney's other peripherals and the league average for HR/F, minorleaguesplits had his expected HR/F at 7.5%. With that rate he'd have given up 12 HR on the season instead of 18, and his FIP would have dropped to 3.36. Maloney was very unlucky in the HR/F category in 2008. It has no effect on what he's going to do going forward.

That said, Minor League splits also has him pitching 2.1 more innings than he actually pitched. Still, if he is a league average pitcher in the 11% HR/FB, he will still give up a ton of HR's because he gives up a whole lot of fly balls. Still, I am not sure he keeps it around 11% given that only Volquez was under 13% among the Reds 4 main starters last year.

redsof72
11-16-2008, 08:37 PM
When you look at statistics in the minor leagues, you have to consider that there is human error built into the process. Official scorers vary wildly from park to park. A hit in one park is an error in the next park. Many scorers really favor the "prospects" on their team and if a decision on a ruling is a close call, there is often pressure from the home manager, particularly if it involves a prospect. Heck, even in the same park, many teams have alternating scorers and so depending on the night, you might get a pitcher friendly scorer or a hitter friendly scorer. You still hear legendary stories from Birmingham regarding Michael Jordan's season there in 1994, when there was no such thing as an error if Jordan was batting. I once heard a scorer change a call after a game after a phone call from the manager because "the manager wants to get his average up."

I have seen many scorers playing card games on their laptops during the games and giving the game only half their attention. I once saw a team hire a scorer from a temp firm who knew nothing about baseball and tried to score straight out of the rule book. That scorer awarded a hitter an RBI on a strikeout because a run scored when the catcher attempted to pick off a runner on the third strike.

How about this season, when the Fort Wayne scorer changed six runs allowed by Dayton reliever Jeff Jeffords from unearned to earned overnight based on a phone call from the manager? Think those six runs had an effect on the ERA of a reliever (with limited innings)?

Minor league stats are helpful but you can't try to do too much with them.

SMcGavin
11-16-2008, 08:44 PM
Yeah, but I think that it will vary from year to year and league to league rather than just a 'minor league BABIP average'. I think we are on the same pitch.

You are right that I got them from Firstinning.com, but line drives can be HR's as well.

That said, Minor League splits also has him pitching 2.1 more innings than he actually pitched. Still, if he is a league average pitcher in the 11% HR/FB, he will still give up a ton of HR's because he gives up a whole lot of fly balls. Still, I am not sure he keeps it around 11% given that only Volquez was under 13% among the Reds 4 main starters last year.

Yeah, I'm not saying there's any one set BABIP that will get normalized to. Agreed that it'll be different for each league and year.

The only thing different in HR/F and HR/Air is the denominator. All the home runs that are given up are counted in either metric. If you want to use HR/Air, that should work just as well, but the average is going to be really low (like 5%). In either case, the point is that Maloney was very unlucky last year on his HR rate and that it has no bearing on what he does in the future.

Maloney's career GB% is 42%, I don't see him suddenly giving up fly balls like Milton once he hits the bigs. I'm betting he'll be similar to Harang and Arroyo and hover around 40% ground balls. So yeah, he'll give up his share of HRs just like those two do. You point out that only Volquez was below 13% HR/F last year - well, the Reds staff last year was really unlucky. In 07 Harang, Arroyo, and Lohse were all under 11% HR/F. It is just chance.

Back to Maloney - he won't have the K rates of Harang, but I see him being a very similar pitcher to Arroyo. Bronson has hung around 7.0 K/9 and just under 3.0 BB/9 during his Cincinnati career. You don't think Maloney can hit those targets? If he does, that's a durable middle of the rotation starter, which is a very valuable guy to have around.

dougdirt
11-16-2008, 09:24 PM
Yeah, I'm not saying there's any one set BABIP that will get normalized to. Agreed that it'll be different for each league and year.

The only thing different in HR/F and HR/Air is the denominator. All the home runs that are given up are counted in either metric. If you want to use HR/Air, that should work just as well, but the average is going to be really low (like 5%). In either case, the point is that Maloney was very unlucky last year on his HR rate and that it has no bearing on what he does in the future.

Maloney's career GB% is 42%, I don't see him suddenly giving up fly balls like Milton once he hits the bigs. I'm betting he'll be similar to Harang and Arroyo and hover around 40% ground balls. So yeah, he'll give up his share of HRs just like those two do. You point out that only Volquez was below 13% HR/F last year - well, the Reds staff last year was really unlucky. In 07 Harang, Arroyo, and Lohse were all under 11% HR/F. It is just chance.

Back to Maloney - he won't have the K rates of Harang, but I see him being a very similar pitcher to Arroyo. Bronson has hung around 7.0 K/9 and just under 3.0 BB/9 during his Cincinnati career. You don't think Maloney can hit those targets? If he does, that's a durable middle of the rotation starter, which is a very valuable guy to have around.

I think Maloney is more Arroyo than Harang like you said, but I don't think he has the 'pitchability' that Arroyo does. Arroyo changes arm angles like its normal or something, which gives him an advantage over other throwers like him without above average stuff, because he can switch it up quite a bit. As for the K/BB numbers for Maloney, I can see Arroyo like K numbers in the 6.5-7 per 9 range, but I think Maloney will walk more like 3-3.5 per 9.

RedlegJake
11-16-2008, 09:41 PM
With his numbers I see Maloney's problem not being the home runs he gives up - to me his succeess, or failure will be whether he keeps guys off base enough to keep the home runs "livable". Given his stuff, and the fact he still fools a good number of AAA hitters I think he might be the kind of pitcher who is pretty successful at first but once he's seen a couple times he'll have trouble with his off speed stuff continuing to baffle big leaguers. Spot control and mixing speeds constantly will have to be his forte - he seems pretty good at mixing things up, so I just wonder if he'll have enough control to nail corners with the breaking stuff consistently to keep his "hittability" down. I think that'll be the difference between being a career training pitcher at AAA for opposing hitters coming up, or a successful major league starter.

Orenda
11-17-2008, 12:45 PM
I think Maloney is more Arroyo than Harang like you said, but I don't think he has the 'pitchability' that Arroyo does. Arroyo changes arm angles like its normal or something, which gives him an advantage over other throwers like him without above average stuff, because he can switch it up quite a bit. As for the K/BB numbers for Maloney, I can see Arroyo like K numbers in the 6.5-7 per 9 range, but I think Maloney will walk more like 3-3.5 per 9.

Another thing Arroyo should be noted for is his stubbornness. How many times have you witnessed Arroyo use his curve-ball in a hitters count, even when it is a tight situation for him and he needs to throw a strike? To me the unpredictability of Arroyo is an asset he can use because of his confidence in his off-speed stuff. Will Maloney be able to do that consistently?

AmarilloRed
11-17-2008, 01:41 PM
Nearly 100 votes, and it's almost a tie between Roenicke and Ramirez. I think this one is headed toward a runoff.

SMcGavin
11-17-2008, 10:29 PM
As for the K/BB numbers for Maloney, I can see Arroyo like K numbers in the 6.5-7 per 9 range, but I think Maloney will walk more like 3-3.5 per 9.

You do realize that if Maloney puts up the numbers you just said, he'll have a decent career as a MLB starting pitcher right? Those numbers would essentially make him Vicente Padilla (career 6.23 K/9, 3.21 BB/9). Not an All Star but a durable guy who's been a decent pitcher for many years.

As for an individual season, a near exact match to what you project is Casey Fossum 2005. He had a 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 39.5% GB%. It was good for a 4.76 xFIP. Basically a #4 starter. Again, nothing glamourous, but you think the Reds would have taken a guy like that over the past decade?

If that's the kind of career you expect from Maloney, I can see why he's not in your top five prospects. But you've got him at #29. You really think there are 28 prospects in the Reds system who are going to end up better than a #4 starter? Either you were mistaken about where you originally ranked Maloney, you were mistaken about the projection you just gave for him, or the Reds farm system is so stacked that we are going to win the World Series every year starting in about 2011.

OnBaseMachine
11-17-2008, 10:35 PM
The cut off for a run off is five votes, currently Roenicke has a four vote lead with just under an hour of voting left. If this lead holds then I'll probably run a one day run off between Ramon Ramirez and Josh Roenicke.

dougdirt
11-17-2008, 11:08 PM
You do realize that if Maloney puts up the numbers you just said, he'll have a decent career as a MLB starting pitcher right? Those numbers would essentially make him Vicente Padilla (career 6.23 K/9, 3.21 BB/9). Not an All Star but a durable guy who's been a decent pitcher for many years.

As for an individual season, a near exact match to what you project is Casey Fossum 2005. He had a 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 39.5% GB%. It was good for a 4.76 xFIP. Basically a #4 starter. Again, nothing glamourous, but you think the Reds would have taken a guy like that over the past decade?

If that's the kind of career you expect from Maloney, I can see why he's not in your top five prospects. But you've got him at #29. You really think there are 28 prospects in the Reds system who are going to end up better than a #4 starter? Either you were mistaken about where you originally ranked Maloney, you were mistaken about the projection you just gave for him, or the Reds farm system is so stacked that we are going to win the World Series every year starting in about 2011.
Fossum gave up fewer HR than I think Maloney will too. I also see Maloney taking time to adjust to the majors. The numbers I quoted him as having, won't be the day he steps onto the MLB field. He probably gets roughed up at first.

OnBaseMachine
11-17-2008, 11:26 PM
This poll is now closed. Josh Roenicke picked up a vote near the end to win by the necessary five votes. The next poll will be open within a few minutes.