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schmidty622
11-17-2008, 03:32 PM
Per MLBTRADERUMORS

A's, Giants Battling For Furcal
By Tim Dierkes [November 17 at 1:26pm CST]
Mychael Urban of MLB.com talked to Rafael Furcal's agent Paul Kinzer this morning. Kinzer says six teams have contacted him about Furcal since free agency opened Friday. The A's have yet to make an offer, but Kinzer's comments imply that the Giants might have. Both teams have very strong interest in the 31 year-old shortstop, who could sign before the winter meetings. When asked about the reported four-year, $40MM demand for Furcal, Kinzer said it was in the ballpark.

It's hard to peg the other four suitors, but the Cubs, Blue Jays, and Orioles are possibilities. The Cardinals may be out, while the Royals, Tigers, and Dodgers may balk at the salary or term. Presumably the Braves are backing off given the state of the Jake Peavy talks.

schmidty622
11-17-2008, 03:35 PM
If all it costs for Furcal is 4 years at 10 mill a year, I would be in.

You'd have your good defensive SS for the next four years, who has a + bat. To have that position solidified with the youth that is coming up through the system could only be a good thing.

Plus, his contract would be coming up right around the time when another SS could be ready from the farm system and probably right around where his performance will start to trail off.

757690
11-17-2008, 03:37 PM
Furcal has not been healthy for a while. 4 years is a lot of years for a guy with back problems. If there were guarantees that he would be healthy all four years or at least three of the four, than yes. However, I think it is more likely that he not be healthy for at least two of those four years.

RED VAN HOT
11-17-2008, 03:56 PM
I have been cool to the prospect of FA signings in this market. This could be the exception. IMO the Reds have one true SS prospect in Cozart. He is probably 2011 at best. Also, it remains to be seen if his dramatic offensive improvement in his second year a low A will continue as he moves up. Valaika is intriguing as reports seem to have his defensive range improving. His bat may be sufficient to offset average defense. It is more likely that BP will be traded than moved to SS. Thus, SS remains somewhat of a question mark.

If Furcal is anything like the numbers he has put up in the past, $10M is a steal. You get defense, average, base stealing, and a little pop as well. As noted by others the gamble is his health. Most people thought he would stay in LA. When teams part way with good players, it is usually because of salary demands. The fact that the Dodgers seemed to have dropped out at this price arouses suspicion. IIRC he did not play well in the NLCS.

I would make an offer for two years and two option years with relatively high buyouts. That would limit the downside risk for the Reds if he could not play. If Furcal is confident in his ability to play well, he might feel that such a contract is not a gamble for him.

schmidty622
11-17-2008, 04:04 PM
I dunno, he really only missed a ton of time last year. Two years ago he played in 138 games and only missed time due to a sprained ankle.

Other than that he really doesn't have too much of an injury history.

I'd take the chance.

redsfanmia
11-17-2008, 06:09 PM
No thanks, let someone else make that mistake.

Red in Atl
11-17-2008, 06:18 PM
OK, guys...we have a shortstop under contract that has been injured. No one will take that contract. And we don't have the money to pay a guy 6 million to sit on the bench. I know Gonzo is a question mark, but we won't know anything until ST.

And buy the way, I watched Furcal play here in Atlanta for his first contract, and I wouldn't spend a starters contract on him even if we had the money. He's got to be one of the most overrated guys in the league.

Emin3mShady07
11-17-2008, 10:40 PM
OK, guys...we have a shortstop under contract that has been injured. No one will take that contract. And we don't have the money to pay a guy 6 million to sit on the bench. I know Gonzo is a question mark, but we won't know anything until ST.

And buy the way, I watched Furcal play here in Atlanta for his first contract, and I wouldn't spend a starters contract on him even if we had the money. He's got to be one of the most overrated guys in the league.

I don't understand how you can say that Furcal is so overrated, at least pertaining to the Reds Needs. According to the fielding bible, Furcal was +36 plays during the 2005-2007 seasons (he was hurt in 2008, so I do not think his fielding numbers this year are indicitive of his overall skill), which translates to +27 runs over your average SS. Furcal was also +35 plays from 2004-2006, so his 2007 defensive season had to have been +1 play better than his 2004 defensive season, which to me shows that he is not really aging that badly yet. so on average, Furcal saves nine runs a year over the average SS. Jeff Keppinger was -14 plays this year in limited action, so he was at least 10.5 runs below the league average. Adding in just defense alone for Furcal would save the reds about 20 runs per year, if not more. Furcal has a pretty low major league OPS at .764, but that isn't terrible for a major league SS, and that number is significantly dragged down by an uncharacteristically unproductive 2007 at the plate. Also, Furcal is faster than keppinger so he would probably created a few runs from his legs because he is usually a pretty successful basestealer. If Keppinger was able to produce an .800 OPS (.375/.425) which is in line with his minor league career norms, he would created roughly 95.5 runs (using 600 ABs and OBP x Slug x AB) while furcal would create roughly 87 runs. This would mean that Furcal, adding in baserunning, is about 15 runs better than Jeff Keppinger and IMO worth the $10 MIl/year contract especially considering the Reds are expected to be able to make a serious run in 2010 and Gonzalez's contract would be off of the books by then.

http://www.fieldingbible.com/
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Rafael-Furcal.shtml
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Jeff-Keppinger.shtml

Mitri
11-17-2008, 11:05 PM
No thanks.

I'd rather the team go the cheaper route and take a chance on Greene via trade. Or stay put, see how the first half of the year pans out, and make a move later in the season.

Honestly, I'd like to see Janish get one last chance this Spring.

RED VAN HOT
11-17-2008, 11:17 PM
No thanks.

I'd rather the team go the cheaper route and take a chance on Greene via trade. Or stay put, see how the first half of the year pans out, and make a move later in the season.

Honestly, I'd like to see Janish get one last chance this Spring.

Please not Greene. We'd be doing the Padres a favor by simply taking his $6.5M contract off their books. Much better to stay with Gonzo. I too would like to see Janish get another shot.

NorrisHopper30
11-18-2008, 12:22 AM
No thanks.

I'd rather the team go the cheaper route and take a chance on Greene via trade. Or stay put, see how the first half of the year pans out, and make a move later in the season.

Honestly, I'd like to see Janish get one last chance this Spring.

WJ said no on Greene.

roby
11-18-2008, 12:27 AM
WJ said no on Greene.

I know the Reds owe Gonzo some money, but I'm more than a little uncomfortable putting any confidence in the thought that he will be able to play this year. He may not be healthy and, at the very least, that will affect his production both in the field and at the plate. Even though he is under contract, the Reds may find themselves scrambling to fill a very important hole if they wait until spring training to see if this guy is able to do the job. He wasn't overly impressive when he was healthy...why think he will be better now? If a good shortstop is available for a reasonable price...you have to consider it, don't you?

kpresidente
11-18-2008, 12:50 AM
This would mean that Furcal, adding in baserunning, is about 15 runs better than Jeff Keppinger and IMO worth the $10 MIl/year

15 runs is worth $10 million? Anyway, Keppinger isn't as bad defensively as last year showed.

kpresidente
11-18-2008, 12:55 AM
We need a stop-gap at SS because Valaika will be ready for 2010 and that's exactly what we've got in Gonzalez. I'm not worried about the injury, it was a broken bone, not ligament or tendon damage.

You sign Furcal and at the end of next year everybody will feel the same way about it as they do now about Cordero.

UPRedsFan
11-18-2008, 10:17 AM
Don't waste money on Furcal or Greene. Save that money for other positions or for future free agent signings since there isn't a surplus of targets this year.

If Gonzalez is not healthy, Janish is a very good option defensively and Keppinger/Hairston aren't bad offensive options (assuming Kepp puts up better numbers once his knee completely heals).

Va Red Fan
11-18-2008, 04:38 PM
I'm not on the Furcal bandwagon. I think its too much money with too much risk.

Hondo
11-23-2008, 06:39 PM
Please not Greene. We'd be doing the Padres a favor by simply taking his $6.5M contract off their books. Much better to stay with Gonzo. I too would like to see Janish get another shot.

But if you get get Peavy by taking on Khalil Greenes contract, would you? I would hope Bob C would approve that...

It is the guys Free Agent year and he could go .280-25-90

Thats the only way the Reds could gather Jake Peavy from the Padres, and if you could send Bailey, Dickerson, Stubbs, and another couplde ml players for Peavy and Greene, I would do it... Greene is as good or better than AGonzalez, maybe just not as much range and with Gonzalez being out all year basically, they could both be close defensivly for 2009...

Come on Walt, step up and Bring Peavy to Cincinnati...

tbball10
11-23-2008, 07:11 PM
But if you get get Peavy by taking on Khalil Greenes contract, would you? I would hope Bob C would approve that...

It is the guys Free Agent year and he could go .280-25-90

Thats the only way the Reds could gather Jake Peavy from the Padres, and if you could send Bailey, Dickerson, Stubbs, and another couplde ml players for Peavy and Greene, I would do it... Greene is as good or better than AGonzalez, maybe just not as much range and with Gonzalez being out all year basically, they could both be close defensivly for 2009...

Come on Walt, step up and Bring Peavy to Cincinnati...

that would be an awesome deal for the reds, but peavy wont accept a trade to the reds

Hondo
11-23-2008, 07:30 PM
that would be an awesome deal for the reds, but peavy wont accept a trade to the reds

How do you know???

schmidty622
11-23-2008, 07:51 PM
How do you know???

How do you know he would?

Hondo
11-23-2008, 08:01 PM
How do you know he would?

I don't know, but it wasn't a retorical question... He hasn't said, No REDS... to my knowledge...

Who cares, it probably won't happen anyway, and then we can keep on having the likes of Eric Milton, Pete Harnisch, Josh Fogg, Greg Swindell, Tim Pugh, Matt Belisle go pitch every 5th Day...

But you guys are probably hoping for Randy Wolf? Wait Brad Penny? Oh, well Derek Lowe is too expenisve you would say and you are correct. Jake Peavy has an affordable Deal... oh and the Reds just lost a but Load of Salary with the trades of Griffey and Dunn...

Even though the Coco Cordero has a big Raise coming up and all the other raises this team will go through... They still have over 4o Million off the Books...

So Peavy is available in TRADE and affordable and Cincinnati has pieces to trade...

So I am for Trading for him... The Yankees do not have the Prospects, Boston doesn't and he wants to pitch in the NL anyway...

The Cubs don't have a lot to offer, only Atlanta has Heyward and friends to offer and they won't let go of their Gems because it is a Salary Dump...

Bob C and Walt could get him if they just worked on it... But oh wait, they are too busy pissing off David Weathers and talking to his agent...

Dave Weathers, the key to 2009 success...

schmidty622
11-23-2008, 08:23 PM
He does have a no trade clause, and his list of preferred teams is known and does not include the Reds...

improbus
11-23-2008, 10:42 PM
Sorry, I don't want an aging SS with a bad back for $10 million a year. I have a bad back and it makes hanging Christmas lights an agonizing experience, I can't imagine trying to play SS.

RED VAN HOT
11-24-2008, 02:10 PM
But if you get get Peavy by taking on Khalil Greenes contract, would you? I would hope Bob C would approve that...

It is the guys Free Agent year and he could go .280-25-90

Thats the only way the Reds could gather Jake Peavy from the Padres, and if you could send Bailey, Dickerson, Stubbs, and another couplde ml players for Peavy and Greene, I would do it... Greene is as good or better than AGonzalez, maybe just not as much range and with Gonzalez being out all year basically, they could both be close defensivly for 2009...

Come on Walt, step up and Bring Peavy to Cincinnati...

I am not convinced that Greene is an improvement over Gonzalez. Greene has an edge in power; Gonzalez in fielding. Also, not unlike Gonzalez, Greene has a history of nagging injuries that take away 100 or so at bats each year. This past year was terrible, but probably not representative. He did average in the teens for HR's in SD. I think you could reasonably expect .250-25-80 with a full season in GAB. That's better than Gonzalez offensively, but in the same vicinity. The Padres are trying to reduce payroll due to economy and their owner's divorce expenses, so a SS swap would not do them much good.

It is my understanding that although Peavy has a list of teams, his agent has hinted that he would listen to other trade offers. Like most players, Peavy wants to play for a contending team. Thus, his agent has made it clear that if he goes to a team that is not on the list, the trade should not bring so much in return that his new team can no longer contend.

As a secondary SD fan, I like Peavy's competitiveness. On the negative side, his delivery has always appeared to me to put additional strain on his arm. Further, he seems to wear down as the season progresses. Because he is so competitive though, he will keep going out there as long as you give him the ball. If he is to hold up for the balance of his contract and make the investment worthwhile, he needs to play for a manager who will not wear him down with overuse.

Hondo
11-24-2008, 05:00 PM
I was thinking that Peavy would make this a contending team...

With Votto, Bruce playing All year and the gains hopefully they will make...

I was hoping a Rotation of

Peavy
Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto/Ramirez

Would be good enough to carry the team to a Central Title...

Harang is Good but more of a #2 in my opinion, but I love Harang and his effort so I am not trying to Bash Him...

Trace's Daddy
11-24-2008, 05:06 PM
I would prefer they spend that kind of money on pitching.

Redsnake
11-24-2008, 05:40 PM
I was thinking that Peavy would make this a contending team...

With Votto, Bruce playing All year and the gains hopefully they will make...

I was hoping a Rotation of

Peavy
Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto/Ramirez

Would be good enough to carry the team to a Central Title...

Harang is Good but more of a #2 in my opinion, but I love Harang and his effort so I am not trying to Bash Him...

Hondo I know where your coming from and I like that you're thinking outside the box.

I've always looked at Harang being a #2 all along. As Reds fans we desire a #1 so badly we've appointed him our #1. With this past years performance he is starting to look like a #3. Don't get me wrong, I love him as the Reds #3. The Reds still need a true #1.

Hondo
11-24-2008, 07:11 PM
Hondo I know where your coming from and I like that you're thinking outside the box.

I've always looked at Harang being a #2 all along. As Reds fans we desire a #1 so badly we've appointed him our #1. With this past years performance he is starting to look like a #3. Don't get me wrong, I love him as the Reds #3. The Reds still need a true #1.

Exactley!

I am sending you a Christmas Card!

:thisyear:

steig
11-24-2008, 08:36 PM
Hondo I know where your coming from and I like that you're thinking outside the box.

I've always looked at Harang being a #2 all along. As Reds fans we desire a #1 so badly we've appointed him our #1. With this past years performance he is starting to look like a #3. Don't get me wrong, I love him as the Reds #3. The Reds still need a true #1.

I think the Reds have a future number 1 and 2 in Volquez and Cueto, it might just take another year or two for them to really develop. I believe most Reds fans look at Harang as the #3 starter; you expect to get a win but aren't surprised by a loss and you know you have a good chance to see a win when he pitches. Where, if Volquez or Cueto is pitching you make certain you watch because they may do something amazing that Harang and most other pitchers just aren't able to perform.

As for Furcal, I like the move if we can get him for nothing over 3 years, even if that means paying an extra 2 million each year.

redsfandan
11-24-2008, 10:24 PM
As a secondary SD fan, I like Peavy's competitiveness. On the negative side, his delivery has always appeared to me to put additional strain on his arm. Further, he seems to wear down as the season progresses. Because he is so competitive though, he will keep going out there as long as you give him the ball. If he is to hold up for the balance of his contract and make the investment worthwhile, he needs to play for a manager who will not wear him down with overuse.

which makes the reds a perfect fit.:rolleyes:

btw, harang has one off year and everyone is down on him? :nono:

back to furcal i don't think walt wants to pay that much.

Emin3mShady07
11-24-2008, 11:04 PM
I think the Reds have a future number 1 and 2 in Volquez and Cueto, it might just take another year or two for them to really develop. I believe most Reds fans look at Harang as the #3 starter; you expect to get a win but aren't surprised by a loss and you know you have a good chance to see a win when he pitches. Where, if Volquez or Cueto is pitching you make certain you watch because they may do something amazing that Harang and most other pitchers just aren't able to perform.

As for Furcal, I like the move if we can get him for nothing over 3 years, even if that means paying an extra 2 million each year.

I think Furcal is a good option for the Reds and he really hasn't had an injury riddled past, just 2008 barring his ankle injury which doesn't have much to do with his back. He is an above average fielder and usually has a fairly high OBP for a SS and is just 2 seasons removed (granted that is a long time, but he showed flashes of his ability when he finally returned this season) from an offensive season where he posted a VORP of 46.9 which is really good. An acquisition of Furcal would easily increase the Reds defense by roughly 40 runs, if not more. Kepp, in limited action I might add, was -14 plays (-10.5 runs) Furcal has historically been a very good fielder and as I mentioned before roughly 12 plays above average or more. That alone is 20 runs. Now if the reds want to stand pat with that team, they could move Jeff Keppinger 3rd base, where he more than likely would be an average or plus fielder. Kepp has very good hands, but little range compared to the Major League SS, but compared to a 3B makes him look a lot better. EE was -21 plays (-15.75 runs) at third this past season and Kepp should be able to be at very least an even fielder. Then the Reds could move EE to left where he would most likely be a better fielder than Dunn, almost anyone could do that. So IMO signing furcal would save the Reds at least 40 runs per year. The Reds should also have much more stability with the fifth staters spot in the rotation and that too would save more runs for the reds.

Emin3mShady07
11-24-2008, 11:06 PM
I would prefer they spend that kind of money on pitching.

Defense makes pitchers better. Sometimes even the best pitchers are hurt by the lack of a defense

Hondo
11-25-2008, 03:51 PM
I'd be for a cheaper alternative like Orlando Cabrera on a 1 or 2 year Contract... he can hit .280 maybe .300 at the GAB and score 100+ runs in the 2 hole...

Plus I like his gritty play and competetivness...

Emin3mShady07
11-25-2008, 03:58 PM
I'd be for a cheaper alternative like Orlando Cabrera on a 1 or 2 year Contract... he can hit .280 maybe .300 at the GAB and score 100+ runs in the 2 hole...

Plus I like his gritty play and competetivness...

Cabrera would also be a good option, but he is not as good of a fielder as Furcal and Furcal is a much better hitter as well.

Grit and competitiveness < Skill

Hondo
11-25-2008, 05:20 PM
Cabrera would also be a good option, but he is not as good of a fielder as Furcal and Furcal is a much better hitter as well.

Grit and competitiveness < Skill

I agree but Furcal is going to be looking for a 4-5 year contract for 10-14 million per year, whereas Cabrera would settle for a 1 or 2 year deal for under 10 Million per year...

Thats my only thing... I don't wanna be on the hook paying 12 Million for a 35 year old SS in 4 - 5 years...

Emin3mShady07
11-25-2008, 09:19 PM
I agree but Furcal is going to be looking for a 4-5 year contract for 10-14 million per year, whereas Cabrera would settle for a 1 or 2 year deal for under 10 Million per year...

Thats my only thing... I don't wanna be on the hook paying 12 Million for a 35 year old SS in 4 - 5 years...

FWIW, Cabrera is going to be 34 next year and he didn't look all that young playing n Chicago. Granted, Cabrera has not had back issues as Furcal did, but even if Furcal was only going to play for the reds for 2 years, they could sign him and then deal him 2 or 2 and a half years later I think they would get more return than signing Cabrera for 2 years and letting him walk. And another thing is that Cabrera is type A where furcal is not, so it would not hamper the reds draft to sign Furcal.

Hondo
11-25-2008, 09:23 PM
FWIW, Cabrera is going to be 34 next year and he didn't look all that young playing n Chicago. Granted, Cabrera has not had back issues as Furcal did, but even if Furcal was only going to play for the reds for 2 years, they could sign him and then deal him 2 or 2 and a half years later I think they would get more return than signing Cabrera for 2 years and letting him walk. And another thing is that Cabrera is type A where furcal is not, so it would not hamper the reds draft to sign Furcal.

I will give ya props on the type A Free Agent point... So yeah, I wouldn't sign him...

But I wouldn't pay Furcal 10-14 Million a year on a 50-70 Million dollar deal...

Emin3mShady07
11-25-2008, 09:46 PM
I will give ya props on the type A Free Agent point... So yeah, I wouldn't sign him...

But I wouldn't pay Furcal 10-14 Million a year on a 50-70 Million dollar deal...

Yeah, as a White Sox fan, I'm used to my team being able to take a risk on a guy where salary is an issue, but talking about the reds, that does actually seem a bit pricey for the Reds long term plans especially in a year or two when guys like Volquez and Votto and EE are due for raises.

DannyB
11-29-2008, 05:58 PM
Someone wants him

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-bbo-free-agents,0,3644066.story


Kinzer spent Tuesday in Oakland, Calif., with another free-agent client, Rafael Furcal. The shortstop was shown around by the Athletics.

"They wanted him to see where the players and where the coaches live, the manager," Kinzer said. "He had no idea it was that beautiful just over the mountain there. Everybody treated him great. He enjoyed the visit."

Furcal, who spent the last three seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, also is of interest to the San Francisco Giants. He, too, will take some time to make a decision on his next club.

"We aren't there yet," Kinzer said.

Hondo
11-29-2008, 06:12 PM
ya know, I am starting to change my mind on Furcal... Especially if Billy Beane wants him... Plus this team needs a legit leadoff hitter.