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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #16 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
11-17-2008, 10:26 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke

OnBaseMachine
11-17-2008, 10:32 PM
I went with Ramon Ramirez slightly over Carlos Fisher. I actually voted Fisher one spot ahead of Ramirez in my personal top 40, but after thinking about it I chose to flip them. I like Fisher a lot, I think he's gonna make an outstanding reliever, but I went with Ramirez since he's a starter and has already had some success in the major leagues.

BearcatShane
11-17-2008, 10:32 PM
Travis Wood?

OnBaseMachine
11-17-2008, 10:32 PM
Travis Wood?

What about him?

Kc61
11-17-2008, 10:47 PM
I got Cozart here. Given his defense should be in the top fifteen or so.

For the next round, please consider Jordan Smith and Sean Watson for the list.

*BaseClogger*
11-17-2008, 11:01 PM
Doug, please explain your reasoning for voting Carlos Fisher over Ramon Ramirez? (Just curious)

dougdirt
11-17-2008, 11:24 PM
Doug, please explain your reasoning for voting Carlos Fisher over Ramon Ramirez? (Just curious)

I think that Fisher has the stuff to give you 70 quality innings every year for a long time. I think Ramirez can be a #4 starter for a few years, but won't last as long. I rank guys on what I feel their MLB career will be and the likelihood of reaching that. Both guys are around the same level as far as closeness, I just feel that Fisher can remain a very effective reliever for while longer than Ramirez can remain a quality starter.

*BaseClogger*
11-17-2008, 11:38 PM
I think that Fisher has the stuff to give you 70 quality innings every year for a long time. I think Ramirez can be a #4 starter for a few years, but won't last as long. I rank guys on what I feel their MLB career will be and the likelihood of reaching that. Both guys are around the same level as far as closeness, I just feel that Fisher can remain a very effective reliever for while longer than Ramirez can remain a quality starter.

The way I see it is Ramirez has the ceiling to become a decent starter, while Fisher is limited to the bullpen. At the same time, I think Ramirez's floor is higher because at worst he will be a poor reliever. Fisher's ceiling is good setup man, with a floor somewhere in AAA. So it's possible that Ramirez ends up doing a better job than Fisher in the bullpen...

BigRed07
11-17-2008, 11:44 PM
I'm going with a prospect who has done nothing but produce on the field every year. He has a better career batting avg than #5 prospect Valaika.
He has put up better numbers in the AFL this year. If Valaika stats put him in the Top 5, Turners stats should put him in the Top 20 and I'm voting for him again at #16.
His career stats are:

Avg OBP SLG OPS
.310 .377 .445 .822 (Turner)
.306 .357 .467 .824 (Valaika)

SMcGavin
11-17-2008, 11:44 PM
Robert Manuel was a LOT better than Carlos Fisher this year at Chattanooga. He's also a year younger. Not that I'd put either of them this high, I'm just saying.

If it's the groundballs that are getting Fisher the love - why not Clayton Shunick? I think Fisher's career (failed starter, gets converted to relief and has some success, promoted to AAA late in his age 25 season) is pretty much the floor for Shunick.

Don't get me wrong, I could see Fisher making a niche for himself in an MLB bullpen somewhere, but I don't see what he's done to differentiate himself from some other relievers who didn't even make this poll. For example Manuel and Danny Herrera (who has similar groundball tendencies, is two years younger and most importantly doesn't have the control issues that plague Fisher).

dougdirt
11-17-2008, 11:45 PM
The way I see it is Ramirez has the ceiling to become a decent starter, while Fisher is limited to the bullpen. At the same time, I think Ramirez's floor is higher because at worst he will be a poor reliever. Fisher's ceiling is good setup man, with a floor somewhere in AAA. So it's possible that Ramirez ends up doing a better job than Fisher in the bullpen...

Possible, sure. But I don't think its very likely at all. Fisher's cieling is a very good reliever. Set up guy, long guy, closer... doesn't matter. His ceiling is that of a guy capable of 70 innings every year with a lot of strikeouts, a lot of groundballs, few HR's allowed and a low 3 ERA. I don't think that Ramirez can be that type of reliever.

*BaseClogger*
11-17-2008, 11:51 PM
Possible, sure. But I don't think its very likely at all. Fisher's cieling is a very good reliever. Set up guy, long guy, closer... doesn't matter. His ceiling is that of a guy capable of 70 innings every year with a lot of strikeouts, a lot of groundballs, few HR's allowed and a low 3 ERA. I don't think that Ramirez can be that type of reliever.

Isn't Ramirez's biggest issue that he needs to improve his slider? A move to the pen would allow him to add a few MPH to that fastball and dominate with his changeup. I can easily see him being the exact same reliever you are describing as your model for Fisher.

It's just my personal theory that starting pitching prospects go before relief pitchers unless they have the potential to be truly dominant--and Fisher will never be dominant IMO. But I respect your opinion Doug...

dougdirt
11-17-2008, 11:56 PM
Robert Manuel was a LOT better than Carlos Fisher this year at Chattanooga. He's also a year younger. Not that I'd put either of them this high, I'm just saying.

If it's the groundballs that are getting Fisher the love - why not Clayton Shunick? I think Fisher's career (failed starter, gets converted to relief and has some success, promoted to AAA late in his age 25 season) is pretty much the floor for Shunick.

Don't get me wrong, I could see Fisher making a niche for himself in an MLB bullpen somewhere, but I don't see what he's done to differentiate himself from some other relievers who didn't even make this poll. For example Manuel and Danny Herrera (who has similar groundball tendencies, is two years younger and most importantly doesn't have the control issues that plague Fisher).
Fisher wasn't a pitcher until he was 21.5 either though, so his age is a bit deceiving. As for why not Shunick, well for starters his results weren't close to that of Fisher. 2, his stuff isn't on par either, yet. Thirdly, Shunick posted a 51% GB rate in rookie ball. Fisher posted a 61% rate in AA/AAA.

As for a comparison to Herrera, its very simple. Fisher can throw a 95 MPH sinker, Herrera throws an 84 MPH 4 seamer. One guy projects to have the ability to pitch in the majors and one doesn't.

Now with Manuel, his stuff is a bit different than Fisher. He throws a little softer but with good movement on his fastball (89-92 MPH) and he can locate it well. However Manuel for his career has a GB% below 35%, which is Eric Milton territory. Guys that give up that many flyballs tend to give up a lot of HR's. In the end I like Fishers stuff better and his projection better, but Manuel is someone that could really improve his footing with another outstanding season out of the pen. The flyball numbers scare me though.

dougdirt
11-18-2008, 12:01 AM
Isn't Ramirez's biggest issue that he needs to improve his slider? A move to the pen would allow him to add a few MPH to that fastball and dominate with his changeup. I can easily see him being the exact same reliever you are describing as your model for Fisher.

It's just my personal theory that starting pitching prospects go before relief pitchers unless they have the potential to be truly dominant--and Fisher will never be dominant IMO. But I respect your opinion Doug...

I am curious as to why you think a tall, big bodied pitcher with a sinker up to 95 MPH can't be dominant?

As for Ramirez, from the bullpen he can throw a little harder (generally works 91-93 from the bullpen).

Another difference is their body builds. Fisher is tall and big. Ramirez is short and skinny. Over the long haul, I put my money on Fisher having the longer career, thus making his overall value higher.

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2008, 12:10 AM
I am curious as to why you think a tall, big bodied pitcher with a sinker up to 95 MPH can't be dominant?

It's simple--secondary stuff. As far as I know he doesn't have that offspeed pitch to keep hitters off-balance for his power sinker. I don't believe he will get enough swings and misses with that sinker. I'm not saying he can't become a good reliever, just that he won't be a relief ace (one of the 30 best relievers in MLB)...

AmarilloRed
11-18-2008, 12:26 AM
Ramon Ramirez. I think he will be our #5 starter next year, and a good one. He was the only #5 we had last year who performed well at that role.

SMcGavin
11-18-2008, 12:32 AM
Shunick, age 21, Rookie ball: 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9
Fisher, age 22, Rookie ball: 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Herrera's inability to pitch in the majors didn't seem to bother him while he was sitting down the heart of the World Champs' order.

Why can't Fisher be dominant in the bigs? I don't know, why wasn't he dominant as a 25 year old in AA?

dougdirt
11-18-2008, 12:36 AM
It's simple--secondary stuff. As far as I know he doesn't have that offspeed pitch to keep hitters off-balance for his power sinker. I don't believe he will get enough swings and misses with that sinker. I'm not saying he can't become a good reliever, just that he won't be a relief ace (one of the 30 best relievers in MLB)...

I think you are severely underestimating the offspeed stuff of Fisher. I will see what I can track down of him pitching.

dougdirt
11-18-2008, 12:37 AM
Shunick, age 21, Rookie ball: 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9
Fisher, age 22, Rookie ball: 7.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Herrera's inability to pitch in the majors didn't seem to bother him while he was sitting down the heart of the World Champs' order.

Why can't Fisher be dominant in the bigs? I don't know, why wasn't he dominant as a 25 year old in AA?

Fisher in rookie ball was still in his first full season EVER as a pitcher. He used to be an infielder and switched to pitcher in college. His age compared to level doesn't really tell you the story at all.

*BaseClogger*
11-18-2008, 12:41 AM
Doug, answer me this. Between Ramirez and Fisher:

Who has a higher ceiling?

Who has a higher floor?

dougdirt
11-18-2008, 12:54 AM
Doug, answer me this. Between Ramirez and Fisher:

Who has a higher ceiling?

Who has a higher floor?

I think Ramirez has a higher ceiling, but that he won't sustain his ceiling for very long.

I think their floors are similar, with Fisher just a little higher.

AmarilloRed
11-18-2008, 12:58 AM
I think Ramirez has a higher ceiling, but that he won't sustain his ceiling for very long.

I think their floors are similar, with Fisher just a little higher.

Why don't you think he will sustain it? From everything I saw last year, Ramirez looks to be a good BOR starter for a while. His age works against him, but I still think he could help the Reds for a while.

dougdirt
11-18-2008, 12:59 AM
Why don't you think he will sustain it? From everything I saw last year, Ramirez looks to be a good BOR starter for a while. His age works against him, but I still think he could help the Reds for a while.

Being 6'0 and 160 pounds works against him being a starter for a prolonged period of time without breaking down.

mth123
11-18-2008, 03:32 AM
Cozart.

Guys who can actually stick at SS in the big leagues defensively and haven't completely eliminated themselves from ever making it with the stick don't grow on trees. Prefer those to middle relievers, interchangeable back-end guys or tweeners who may show a little more with the bat but can't find a suitable position. Cozart should be in the top 10.

As for the pitcher debate, I have Ramirez at 13, Fisher at 14 and Maloney at 15. I agree with Doug though, that Fisher is likely to have the longest career in his role. Ramirez nips him by a hair based on having a successful cup of coffee in the major leagues and the possibility that he could be a desirable piece in a deal for some team looking for young starter candidates.

icehole3
11-18-2008, 04:52 AM
I'm going with a prospect who has done nothing but produce on the field every year. He has a better career batting avg than #5 prospect Valaika.
He has put up better numbers in the AFL this year. If Valaika stats put him in the Top 5, Turners stats should put him in the Top 20 and I'm voting for him again at #16.
His career stats are:

Avg OBP SLG OPS
.310 .377 .445 .822 (Turner)
.306 .357 .467 .824 (Valaika)

excellent argument

HokieRed
11-18-2008, 08:06 AM
Hildenbrandt. I like Fisher and Ramirez, though I suspect Ramirez's niche will also ultimately be the pen. For that reason I like Fisher a little better; I also find the argument for Turner pretty strong, though I suspect Buchholz has a chance to be better in the long run. But starting pitching is more important than any other single commodity: thus Hildenbrandt, even though he's not that far along.

TRF
11-18-2008, 09:35 AM
Maloney.

lollipopcurve
11-18-2008, 09:50 AM
still voting Heisey

BRM
11-18-2008, 12:57 PM
Looking like a runaway for Ramirez so far.

mace
11-18-2008, 01:04 PM
So, is this cricket? I still like Hanigan here, but since he has no shot at this point I voted Cozart. (No objections to Ramirez, however.)

The point has been well-made, concerning Cozart, that he is one of the few guys in the organization with the skills to handle a key defensive position at the major-league level and still swing a decent bat. Well, that applies to Hanigan right now.

BRM
11-18-2008, 01:12 PM
I know next to nothing about cricket so I have no idea.

Mario-Rijo
11-18-2008, 01:42 PM
What about him?

Why no inclusion over the likes of Jukich?

OnBaseMachine
11-18-2008, 01:44 PM
Why no inclusion over the likes of Jukich?

I included Travis Wood. He's the last player listed since it's in alphabetical order.

Mario-Rijo
11-18-2008, 01:49 PM
I voted Ramirez

BTW I'm keeping my eye on Eymann his defense is seemingly good enough to play a viable major league SS unless someone knows something I don't. His bat was awful up until this season which I thought was probably a bit flukish until I looked closer at the #'s. He cut down his K's from up around 100 (his avg the past 3 seasons) down to 65 this season and his BA and Slg% jumped 50+ points. It's still soon to be sure but it looks as though he may have turned a corner and has actually improved his ability to make contact, stay tuned.

Mario-Rijo
11-18-2008, 01:51 PM
I included Travis Wood. He's the last player listed since it's in alphabetical order.

Ah, that's what we get when we assume, I saw the post and just assumed he didn't make the list. I didn't look to hard for him due to knowing who I was gonna vote for this time.

mace
11-18-2008, 02:14 PM
I know next to nothing about cricket so I have no idea.

Maybe I should have said, is this kosher? Or permissible? Within the parameters? Or, is this OK?

BRM
11-18-2008, 02:14 PM
Maybe I should have said, is this kosher? Or permissible? Within the parameters? Or, is this OK?

OK, that I would have understood. :)

batsfan
11-18-2008, 02:40 PM
I have to say, I would put Ramirez high on my list. I recall when he was called up to AAA in may, he really struggled with his first few starts, but put up good strikeout numbers, and then they put him in the pen for a few games. After two games in the pen, they put him back in the rotation, and then... 2.12 era after the all star break. Pre all star he was 4.10. He improved so much in the second half, and seemed to be able to translate his skills to the Major league level when he was called up. If he can pitch anywhere near like he did this year next year, he could be more then a bottom of the rotation starter. And saying he is to small is pure bull, he is smaller then was Ron Guidry, who, coincidentally, had his first full MLB season when he was 26, and spent most of his time in the minors as a releiver. It all depends on if his second half was a fluke or not.

camisadelgolf
11-18-2008, 02:55 PM
I voted Ramirez

BTW I'm keeping my eye on Eymann his defense is seemingly good enough to play a viable major league SS unless someone knows something I don't. His bat was awful up until this season which I thought was probably a bit flukish until I looked closer at the #'s. He cut down his K's from up around 100 (his avg the past 3 seasons) down to 65 this season and his BA and Slg% jumped 50+ points. It's still soon to be sure but it looks as though he may have turned a corner and has actually improved his ability to make contact, stay tuned.

Eymann had an interesting jump in his numbers this year. I think he's about as much of a shortstop as Adam Rosales, though. I don't think he should enter the conversation for the Reds' top-30 prospects, but if he performs in Louisville like he did in Chattanooga, he'll be particularly exciting to watch.

OnBaseMachine
11-19-2008, 03:18 PM
I have nowhere else to put this so I'll just post it here:

Ross (CA): After seeing their performances at the MLB level, who do you choose for the future: Justin Upton or Jay Bruce?

SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:44 PM ET ) I'm going to say Bruce, tough call though.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/espn-chat/2008/267226.html

dougdirt
11-19-2008, 03:23 PM
I think Bruce puts up better counting stats, but Upton will close in with the better plate discipline. Real close.

BRM
11-19-2008, 03:28 PM
I think Bruce puts up better counting stats, but Upton will close in with the better plate discipline. Real close.

Upton is a better defender though, right?

dougdirt
11-19-2008, 03:43 PM
Upton is a better defender though, right?

Not right now he isn't. Scouts love the tools, but the ones I talk to think he just doesn't care about defense, so he doesn't work on it at all and it shows. His ZR is low and the amount of plays out of the zone is also lowish. Bruce has a better ZR and gets to more balls out of the zone, at least last year in RF for both of them. They both had the same fielding % too, so I would say right now, Bruce certainly is holding an advantage.

BRM
11-19-2008, 03:45 PM
Not right now he isn't. Scouts love the tools, but the ones I talk to think he just doesn't care about defense, so he doesn't work on it at all and it shows. His ZR is low and the amount of plays out of the zone is also lowish. Bruce has a better ZR and gets to more balls out of the zone, at least last year in RF for both of them. They both had the same fielding % too, so I would say right now, Bruce certainly is holding an advantage.

Good to know. Thanks Doug.

OnBaseMachine
11-19-2008, 03:49 PM
There is also this little tidbit from BA:

Several managers and scouts in the MWL didn't like Upton's attitude and effort. They said he showed bad body language and often ran slowly to first, and they saw a few blowups in the dugout when he broke bats or got into arguments with his manager.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/features/263346.html

Not that that stuff means much to me, but when the skills are similar, I'll take the guy with the better makeup. Bruce is a class act from everything I've read and seen. Upton is a great talent though. I think he and Bruce will battle it out for some MVP's somewhere down the road.

BRM
11-19-2008, 03:50 PM
Andy Phillips is a class act. Why did you hate on him so much?

OnBaseMachine
11-19-2008, 04:02 PM
Andy Phillips is a class act. Why did you hate on him so much?

Hi Andy. Have you not signed with anyone yet?

BRM
11-19-2008, 04:03 PM
Hi Andy. Have you not signed with anyone yet?

See what I mean. Hater.