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View Full Version : Esteemed sportswriter makes Dunn free agent analysis.



Handofdeath
11-18-2008, 05:48 PM
Peter Abraham-

Adam Dunn: There is a distinct lack of buzz around Dunn for some reason. The statheads love him because he’s a sure thing every year. You live with the strikeouts but he gets on base and hits home runs. The baseball guys hate him because he has no position and doesn’t seem overly interested. Washington, a dying franchise already, needs a spark. Prediction: Nationals for three years and $36 million.

ChatterRed
11-18-2008, 08:27 PM
Peter Abraham-

Adam Dunn: There is a distinct lack of buzz around Dunn for some reason. The statheads love him because he’s a sure thing every year. You live with the strikeouts but he gets on base and hits home runs. The baseball guys hate him because he has no position and doesn’t seem overly interested. Washington, a dying franchise already, needs a spark. Prediction: Nationals for three years and $36 million.


Comical considering he made $13 million this past season.

I think Dunn's reputation of having a lack of interest in baseball has caused him this problem.

REDblooded
11-19-2008, 12:10 AM
Comical considering he made $13 million this past season.

I think Dunn's reputation of having a lack of interest in baseball has caused him this problem.

really? maybe it's just that he's not as good as you think he is, and GM's that have to put their careers on the line aren't willing to sign him.

Emin3mShady07
11-19-2008, 01:12 AM
really? maybe it's just that he's not as good as you think he is, and GM's that have to put their careers on the line aren't willing to sign him.

?:eek: Dunn is pretty darn good. He has a Career OPS of .899, not too many hitters in th majors right now can say that.

757690
11-19-2008, 03:03 AM
?:eek: Dunn is pretty darn good. He has a Career OPS of .899, not too many hitters in th majors right now can say that.

I don't think that anyone on this board is saying that Dunn is not good, in fact nearly all would agree that he is one of the most productive players in the league.

But the real argument is how good is he? And that is what REDblooded was saying, that Dunn is not as good as some people think.

This has been beaten to death on this board, but things are slow, so I will bring up the main points again.

1) His defense. He has gotten better, but for most of his career Dunn was a butcher in left. Now he just is not very good, which is about average for left fielders.

It is very difficult to know exactly how many missed plays Dunn is responsible for, but I would say that even now, he is probably worth around one a week, which is about 20-25 a season. Even at 20 missed plays, if they are worth .8 runs each according to Tango

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/why_saving_a_play_is_worth_08_runs/

then Dunn's defense costs the team around 15 runs a season. That's a big chunk. Even if it is just 10, that knocks him a notch in terms of his overall level of production he provides. He moves from a 4 win player to 3.5 or maybe even a 3 win player.

2) Not all OPS are equal. Dunn's high OPS is due to a large number of walks. While walks are great, they are not as valuable as hits. Most Saberheads agree that a walk is worth around 2/3 of a hit in terms of run production. So compare Dunn to Aramis Ramirez, who had a similar OPS last year, .898, but had 48 less walks and 38 more hits. That is about 12-15 more runs, with an almost identical OPS.

So just between his defense and high walk instead of hit total, Dunn is worth about 20-30 runs less than a player with the same OPS, but with better defense and a better BA.

Now to be honest, I like Dunn a lot, and think that if the Reds could sign him to a two year $25M, that would be great. But I think he will get at least 4 years, and that alone makes him not worth it. The Reds have too many good young hitters coming up. I think most of the people against signing Dunn would like him on the team, just not at his current market value.

dougflynn23
11-19-2008, 09:20 AM
Adam Dunn is a very good 6th place hitter on an AL team as a DH or as a left fielder for a team who has the willingness to accept the 3-4 lost games per season his defense generates. If you are a team who already has the horses to win and needs a big bat, he's a good investment. If you are counting on him being the acquisition that carries you to the postseason, he's not that. His "Big Donkey", "aw shucks" reputation doesn't help him, even if its not a fair portrayal.

I could see a Detroit eating Sheffields salary and offering Dunn a 1 year $13M deal and him accepting it.

Ghosts of 1990
11-19-2008, 09:50 AM
He is a very good player but not a superstar. Thats the simplest way to sum it up.

CySeymour
11-19-2008, 01:34 PM
He is a very good player but not a superstar. Thats the simplest way to sum it up.

I think that is the best way to put it.

ChatterRed
11-19-2008, 03:31 PM
Here.....let me try and put it in simpler terms.......Adam Dunn is a.........

redsfanmia
11-19-2008, 04:48 PM
Dunn is an elite player who is getting a bad rap by people who do not understand math. He is the kind of player to build championship teams around and the Reds will be cursed for trading him.

schmidty622
11-19-2008, 04:54 PM
ooooooooooo the curse of the Donkey

Lockdwn11
11-19-2008, 05:40 PM
Dunn is an elite player who is getting a bad rap by people who do not understand math. He is the kind of player to build championship teams around and the Reds will be cursed for trading him.

Dunn is a good player. He is not elite and I think most people know that.


P.S. I understand Math just fine.

1+1= 6 see:)

BRM13
11-19-2008, 11:54 PM
He is a very good player but not a superstar. Thats the simplest way to sum it up.

I'll settle for this.:) I recall hearing for the last couple of years that Dunn was one of the primary reasons the Red's didn't win. If the big slam now is that he's merely very good, I'd say that's a lot of progress.

757690
11-20-2008, 03:03 AM
Dunn is an elite player who is getting a bad rap by people who do not understand math. He is the kind of player to build championship teams around and the Reds will be cursed for trading him.

Well I was very bad at math. Once in 9th grade, my math teacher gave me an F- on math test, since she said it wasn't fair to lump me in with the students who failed normally.

Anyway, I still love stats, love Bill James and Sabermetrics, but I still believe that there is more to understanding baseball than math. I think the opposite of what Law said is true. Dunn is overvalued by those who understand math and nothing else.

EV4Prez
11-20-2008, 01:06 PM
i agree with 757.. some rely on the math to tell them things they like.. but simple things like watching the game and seeing how many fly balls he doesn't get to aren't really accounted for.. since range and things like that also rely on a pitcher being a fly ball pitcher..

schmidty622
11-20-2008, 02:16 PM
Well I was very bad at math. Once in 9th grade, my math teacher gave me an F- on math test, since she said it wasn't fair to lump me in with the students who failed normally.

Anyway, I still love stats, love Bill James and Sabermetrics, but I still believe that there is more to understanding baseball than math. I think the opposite of what Law said is true. Dunn is overvalued by those who understand math and nothing else.

Cue Slimshady coming out of nowhere telling you how VORP, TPOP, and DEEBOP, make Dunn the best player eva. :cool:

redsfanmia
11-20-2008, 05:14 PM
Well I was very bad at math. Once in 9th grade, my math teacher gave me an F- on math test, since she said it wasn't fair to lump me in with the students who failed normally.

Anyway, I still love stats, love Bill James and Sabermetrics, but I still believe that there is more to understanding baseball than math. I think the opposite of what Law said is true. Dunn is overvalued by those who understand math and nothing else.

I actually agree with you, Dunn drove me nuts and I was happy when he was traded. I was just being sarcastic I guess I should have used one of these:rolleyes:. I also would be very surprised if Dunn got a big boy contract for multiple years, I just dont think he has that kind of value to a team.

Dunnateher
11-21-2008, 07:17 AM
Well we all know Dunn is no Barry Zito. Dunn should hit in the second slot. He isn't Manny but he is better than Pat Burrell. Consistency is huge in baseball and no one is more so that Dunn.

redsfandan
11-21-2008, 09:23 AM
dunn will be paid and at least $15 million+ a year, probably more. there just aren't alot of 40 hr hitters available. he could be a nice fit for a team but it depends on the team/situation. he'd be a cheaper replacement of teix for anaheim, they could keep him at dh if they wanted, and he'd complement the contact hitters they have. imo, that would make some sense but a move to left field/1st base in dc wouldn't nearly as much.

podgejeff_
11-21-2008, 10:51 AM
I hope that the Reds resign Dunn at a bargain this offseason. I don't care how they do it, bring Kearns back cheap if it helps resign him.

Dunn is never going to be masterful in LF but there aren't really many options that are, I can live with that. Trading away one of the better sluggers the Reds produced is going to haunt us. If he doesn't end up too expensive, he's a very good option for a club that needs offense.

redsfanmia
11-21-2008, 11:16 AM
dunn will be paid and at least $15 million+ a year, probably more. there just aren't alot of 40 hr hitters available. he could be a nice fit for a team but it depends on the team/situation. he'd be a cheaper replacement of teix for anaheim, they could keep him at dh if they wanted, and he'd complement the contact hitters they have. imo, that would make some sense but a move to left field/1st base in dc wouldn't nearly as much.

I really doubt Dunn makes more than 15 million, I hope he gets it for himself and his family but I just dont see it.

Emin3mShady07
11-21-2008, 01:35 PM
Cue Slimshady coming out of nowhere telling you how VORP, TPOP, and DEEBOP, make Dunn the best player eva. :cool:

Adam Dunn had a combined VORP between Arizona and Cincinnati of about 38 runs according to BP. That would put him about 45th overall in the MLB in VORP, so Dunn is certainly not the best player ever :D but he is still very good. I would say that you would need to factor in his defense and that would drop his overall value a decent amount because VORP is just based on offense. I don't recognize TPOP and DEEBOP, what are those?:p:

redsfandan
11-21-2008, 03:13 PM
I hope that the Reds resign Dunn at a bargain this offseason. I don't care how they do it, bring Kearns back cheap if it helps resign him.

Dunn is never going to be masterful in LF but there aren't really many options that are, I can live with that. Trading away one of the better sluggers the Reds produced is going to haunt us. If he doesn't end up too expensive, he's a very good option for a club that needs offense.

let it go, just let it go.


I really doubt Dunn makes more than 15 million, I hope he gets it for himself and his family but I just dont see it.

i don't hope he will make more than 15 million but i think he will. teix is expected to make in excess of $20 million a season. i'd be surprised if dunn didn't receive at least 15.

Emin3mShady07
11-21-2008, 03:28 PM
i don't hope he will make more than 15 million but i think he will. teix is expected to make in excess of $20 million a season. i'd be surprised if dunn didn't receive at least 15.

While I am still stuck on VORP, I will just say that Tex had a VORP over 65 runs between ATL and LAA, which puts him at 6th in the Majors, and as I said before, Dunn's was about 38. That is a humongous difference and Tex is at least an average fielder at 1B and Dunn is very sub-par in the OF. Tex posted an OPS of .963 and an OPS+ of 150. Dunn posted an OPS of .899 and an OPS+ of 129. So, all things considered, if Tex got 20 million I would say a fair price for Dunn is 12-13 million, not 15 million, but we shall see what the market eventually decides to give Dunn.

redsfandan
11-21-2008, 05:19 PM
noone will say that dunn is better than teix including me. but do you actually think that dunn could make less than he made this year when he's had 40 hrs each of the last 5 years, averaged 100 rbi, and has a career .381 obp? i don't. markets aren't always "fair" and can be very irrational at times. someone will pay especially when there are only so many available options to help an offense. plus defense won't matter if he becomes a dh.

redsfanmia
11-21-2008, 06:07 PM
noone will say that dunn is better than teix including me. but do you actually think that dunn could make less than he made this year when he's had 40 hrs each of the last 5 years, averaged 100 rbi, and has a career .381 obp? i don't. markets aren't always "fair" and can be very irrational at times. someone will pay especially when there are only so many available options to help an offense. plus defense won't matter if he becomes a dh.

Two words..... the economy.

redsfandan
11-21-2008, 06:25 PM
yeah i also think the economy may have an effect. but just not as much on the better FA's that are available.

redsfanmia
11-21-2008, 08:10 PM
yeah i also think the economy may have an effect. but just not as much on the better FA's that are available.

I think its not going to matter as much on the top flight FA's but is Dunn a top flight FA?

redsfandan
11-21-2008, 09:50 PM
if a team wants to add some power to their lineup he is.

George Foster
11-23-2008, 01:54 AM
I think MLB teams are very worried about the economy. If things get worse in 2009, and all indications are that it will, there will be a lot less people in the seats.

Blue collar markets like Cincinnati will be hit harder than most markets, IMO.

I(heart)Freel
11-23-2008, 01:13 PM
Is it me for you think Dunn will make a decision based on his happiness/comfort more than his bottomline salary?

I can just see him accepting less than the $13 mill he made in '08 to go somewhere where there will be less scrutiny and/or that will reunite him with friends like Junior (if he lands somewhere before Dunn signs) or Kearns/Bowden in DC.

Just my outsider take.

redsfandan
11-23-2008, 07:02 PM
Is it me for you think Dunn will make a decision based on his happiness/comfort more than his bottomline salary?


somewhere an english teacher is shaking their head. ;)

Hondo
11-23-2008, 07:31 PM
somewhere an english teacher is shaking their head. ;)

That was hillarious!

:thumbup:

redsfandan
11-23-2008, 07:44 PM
That was hillarious!

:thumbup:

well thanks :beerme: i have to head to work so i'll counter 1 or 2 of your other posts later. cya

Hondo
11-23-2008, 08:07 PM
well thanks :beerme: i have to head to work so i'll counter 1 or 2 of your other posts later. cya

Nice... Looking forward to it.