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View Full Version : Who is Redszone's #18 prospect?



OnBaseMachine
11-22-2008, 11:28 PM
Redszone's Top Prospects

Prospect #1 - Yonder Alonso
Prospect #2 - Todd Frazier
Prospect #3 - Neftali Soto
Prospect #4 - Drew Stubbs
Prospect #5 - Chris Valaika
Prospect #6 - Kyle Lotzkar
Prospect #7 - Daryl Thompson
Prospect #8 - Juan Francisco
Prospect #9 - Juan Duran
Prospect #10 - Chris Dickerson
Prospect #11 - Devin Mesoraco
Prospect #12 - Danny Dorn
Prospect #13 - Yorman Rodriguez
Prospect #14 - Zach Stewart
Prospect #15 - Josh Roenicke
Prospect #16 - Ramon Ramirez
Prospect #17 - Zach Cozart

OnBaseMachine
11-22-2008, 11:33 PM
I again go with Carlos Fisher. Big frame, good strikeout totals along with groundball tendencies. Like Josh Roenicke, he's got a fresh arm since he didn't start pitching until just a few years ago.

AmarilloRed
11-22-2008, 11:42 PM
Carlos Fisher showed a lot in his limited time in AAA.

mth123
11-23-2008, 03:39 AM
I've been touting Fisher as a sleeper for 2 years now and I like the kid a lot (see my Avatar), but he has bad stretches that scare the heck out of me and his performance in the AFL is a perfect example. I still think Fisher could be a solid middle inning guy, but I've dropped my expectations a bit.

So, I'm going with Chris Heisey at this spot. Right now, the difference that I can see between Heisey and Drew Stubbs lies mostly in hype and the hope that Stubbs adds some significant power. If it were me, I'd deal Stubbs and cash in on the hype and the potential to fill a need at a different spot and keep Heisey and likely end up with the same player. Stubbs status clearly gives him more value (I have him at number 4 as a result) to bring something back in trade, but IMO Heisey will be the same player at the big league level. I have Heisey at 12 on my personal list and go with him here.

Kc61
11-23-2008, 08:31 AM
I voted for Sam Lecure just edging out Fisher.

Folks may remember that Lecure had a big year in 2008. At AA, he dominated during June. After an injury he fell back a bit in July. Then in August he again was extremely effective and pitched 7 perfect innings on August 9.

In June, Lecure had a 1.73 ERA and a 4-1 record. Allowed no homers that month. 36 innings, 23 hits and 10 walks allowed. 31 Ks.

Overall he had 3.42 ERA and 128 Ks in 155 innings. 147 hits in those 155 innings. 1.32 WHIP, very good number for a starter.

Lecure really emerged last season and if he continues at AAA he could become a solid starting pitcher. So I think he deserves some votes.

Fisher has a more projectable frame and I understand why some prefer him. I'm voting Lecure instead because he still projects as a starter. Both of them should be in the top 20.

camisadelgolf
11-23-2008, 01:58 PM
I want to vote for Ismael Guillon, but he isn't there.

If someone wants to argue that he doesn't belong on the list because he hasn't played professionally, Juan Carlos Sulbaran is already on the list.

And if someone wants to argue that he's too young, we've already got Yorman Rodriguez on the list.

OnBaseMachine
11-23-2008, 02:41 PM
I want to vote for Ismael Guillon, but he isn't there.

If someone wants to argue that he doesn't belong on the list because he hasn't played professionally, Juan Carlos Sulbaran is already on the list.

And if someone wants to argue that he's too young, we've already got Yorman Rodriguez on the list.

I plan on adding Ismael Guillon and Junior Arias to the next poll.

fearofpopvol1
11-23-2008, 03:33 PM
Maloney, seriously. He deserves to be in there already.

camisadelgolf
11-23-2008, 03:34 PM
I plan on adding Ismael Guillon and Junior Arias to the next poll.

I think it's a bit premature for Arias. If you're going to add Junior Arias, you might want to consider adding other players with similar hype (and signing bonuses) such as Tzu-Kai Chiu and Yen-Wen Kuo.

OnBaseMachine
11-23-2008, 03:49 PM
I think it's a bit premature for Arias. If you're going to add Junior Arias, you might want to consider adding other players with similar hype (and signing bonuses) such as Tzu-Kai Chiu and Yen-Wen Kuo.

Chiu and Kuo don't have the upside of an Arias or Guillon.

camisadelgolf
11-23-2008, 04:34 PM
Chiu and Kuo don't have the upside of an Arias or Guillon.

For argument's sake, I'd say that at least 80% of the prospects currently on the list don't have the upside that Guillon does.

I don't have anything against Arias. I just don't see how you could argue for him at this point with the lack of information and hype on him. At least Yorman Rodriguez received nearly $3mm, which is about ten times more than what Arias received. A $3,000,000 signing bonus is typically an early first round draft pick. Even Guillon received a signing bonus worthy of a late first rounder, iIrc. Arias, on the other hand, received $300,000 signing bonus, which normally equates to a third round draft pick.

SMcGavin
11-23-2008, 07:40 PM
Maloney, seriously. He deserves to be in there already.

I dunno, Juan Carlos Sulbaran signed for a lot of money and one of the minor league publications wrote a nice blurb about him. And Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez got a bunch of money too, plus someone who's paid to hype prospects said they are going to be awesome. Compared to all that Maloney's habit of "getting guys out" is pretty boring.

BRM
11-24-2008, 09:25 AM
I dunno, Juan Carlos Sulbaran signed for a lot of money and one of the minor league publications wrote a nice blurb about him. And Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez got a bunch of money too, plus someone who's paid to hype prospects said they are going to be awesome. Compared to all that Maloney's habit of "getting guys out" is pretty boring.

It's all about projections. And most project Maloney to be a decent #5. That's why there's no "excitement" for him IMO.

SMcGavin
11-24-2008, 11:29 AM
It's all about projections. And most project Maloney to be a decent #5. That's why there's no "excitement" for him IMO.

I know. If I had Maloney pegged as a back of the rotation starter (say I was predicting a 5.00 ERA from him during his prime), I'd still rank him way higher than Juan Carlos Sulbaran.

tripleaaaron
11-24-2008, 12:39 PM
I know. If I had Maloney pegged as a back of the rotation starter (say I was predicting a 5.00 ERA from him during his prime), I'd still rank him way higher than Juan Carlos Sulbaran.

Why? Because he is closer to getting smacked around in the show, or do you think that Sulbaran has less talent than Maloney?

*BaseClogger*
11-24-2008, 12:56 PM
My rough illustration for comparing Maloney v. Sulbaran:

Maloney
1st starter <1%
2nd starter 2%
3rd starter 5%
4th starter 15%
5th starter 25%
Ace reliever <1%
Good reliever 3%
Middling reliever 29%
Career minor leaguer 20%

Sulbaran
1st starter 2%
2nd starter 4%
3rd starter 6%
4th starter 8%
5th starter 10%
Ace reliever 2%
Good reliever 4%
Middling reliever 8%
Career minor leaguer 55%

Purely guesswork, like I said for illustration purposes only...

SMcGavin
11-24-2008, 02:18 PM
Why? Because he is closer to getting smacked around in the show, or do you think that Sulbaran has less talent than Maloney?

A guy you can count on to stay healthy and give you a 5.00 ERA is more valuable than you think. The 2008 Reds would have given up close to 40 fewer runs this year if they had a guy like that.

BC I'd put the "career minor leaguer" way higher than 55% for Sulbaran, and probably lower than 20% for Maloney. It's possible Maloney goes to the bigs and gets knocked around, but even still I'd be pretty shocked if he doesn't stick around a staff for a few years at minimum. Think about it, Josh Fogg has almost 200 career starts. Unless you see something crazy, like Maloney's K rates literally being cut in half, he'll be a major leaguer. (Actually his K rates being cut in half would put him about even with Josh Fogg. But you get the point).

I also think you're setting the rotation slots too high - the data's a couple of years old, but in '06 the average NL "#4 starter" had a 5.11 ERA. There's only a 22% chance Maloney can do that? In '08 the NL Average for a starting pitcher was a 4.41 ERA - so we can assume that's the average for a #3 starter. There's only a 7% chance he can do that?

To be clear, I'm not interested in debating Maloney's stuff any more, I'm just pointing out that reliable back-end starters are more valuable than most people think. Think of it as a hypothetical 5.00 ERA man instead of Maloney if it makes it less polarizing. The Reds did just trade their best hitter for a guy like this (Micah Owings, 2007/2008 xFIPs: 4.94, 5.06).

*BaseClogger*
11-24-2008, 06:27 PM
SMcGavin, I have no idea why I even tried to guess those probabilities. It's just impossible with that many categories. I should have cut it down to like five bins...

SMcGavin
11-24-2008, 08:22 PM
SMcGavin, I have no idea why I even tried to guess those probabilities. It's just impossible with that many categories. I should have cut it down to like five bins...

Yeah it's pretty impossible, even if you cut down the categories. An interesting exercise though, I think that's how most of us think when we evaluate a prospect. How good can he be, and what's the odds of him getting there?

OnBaseMachine
11-24-2008, 11:31 PM
Matt Maloney wins by five votes. The next poll will be open in a few minutes.