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View Full Version : So who will be the breakout minor leaguer in 2008?



TRF
11-25-2008, 10:20 AM
This is actually a different topic than the sleeper thread. You are limited to the Redszone top 20 prospects. And you get only 1 pick.

Which of the top 20 will take their game to the ridiculous level? Last year you could make the argument that several players did, Votto and Cueto, with Bruce just behind them at the major league level, Frazier and to a lesser extent Francisco in the minor leagues. None but Votto had any prior major league experience.

I'm going with Neftali Soto. As much as 2007 was a breakout year for him I can see him rocket to AAA this year ala Jay Bruce in 2007. I think Soto's 2008 int the MWL was as good as Bruce's time there. I think we may be seeing the best we will get from Alonzo and Frazier, which is very, very good. I think this is the year Soto gets national attention.

RedlegJake
11-25-2008, 10:24 AM
I'd say Dickerson but since he's a big leaguer already and has ridiculous September numbers to fail to replicate, I won't nominate him. I do think he makes the leap to solid center fielder, answering a lot of doubters.

Soto is a good pick, although I don't see him in AAA at 20 unless its late in the year.

My pick is Drew Stubbs.

BRM
11-25-2008, 10:35 AM
2008 is almost over. ;)

My breakout pick for 2009 was going to be Soto but since you already took him, I'll go with Juan Francisco. I think his walk rate will climb enough in Carolina for him to put up a terrific line.

TRF
11-25-2008, 12:05 PM
Do'H

Can a mod change the title to 2009 please?

OnBaseMachine
11-25-2008, 12:42 PM
Do'H

Can a mod change the title to 2009 please?

Go to the main page of the minor league forum, scroll down to this topic and double click beside the title of this thread and it should allow you to edit the title.

mace
11-25-2008, 01:49 PM
Everyday player: Chris Heisey

Pitcher: Jeremy Horst

(I know, that's two picks. And neither is in the top 20 . . . I just think they're both really good and ready to rise.)

RED VAN HOT
11-25-2008, 02:05 PM
Everyday player: Chris Heisey

Pitcher: Jeremy Horst

(I know, that's two picks. And neither is in the top 20 . . . I just think they're both really good and ready to rise.)

Ditto.

TRF
11-25-2008, 02:08 PM
Go to the main page of the minor league forum, scroll down to this topic and right click beside the title of this thread and it should allow you to edit the title.

Don't see anything to click.

dougdirt
11-25-2008, 02:13 PM
I am going to go ahead and just say Juan Francisco is going to slug .600 in AA next year. Short fence out in RF is going to lead to his monster power going crazy. Which in turn is going to lead to guys pitching him more carefully, which will lead to more walks.

OnBaseMachine
11-25-2008, 02:17 PM
Don't see anything to click.

Sorry, I meant double click instead of right click. Just double click on the open space beside the title and it should pop up and allow you to edit.

OnBaseMachine
11-25-2008, 02:51 PM
My 2009 breakout player is Neftali Soto. Yeah, 2008 was a breakout season for him but I expect more big things from him in 2009. I think he begins to show some improvements in the walking category while turning some of those doubles into homers (though the FSL may sap some of those HR). I think he ends the 2009 season in Double-A Carolina and establishes himself as a top 30 prospect in all of baseball.

My other candidate was Juan Francisco. I also think we'll see some kids like Juan Carlos Sulbaran and Dallas Buck establish themselves as big time pitching prospects.

Guys like Arias, Duran, and Yorman crossed my mind but they are still raw and will be working on things.

Bip Roberts
11-25-2008, 04:44 PM
Sulbaran

RedsManRick
11-25-2008, 04:48 PM
I'll go with Lotzkar. Ramirez is probably at or near his ceiling. Thompson has already made his leap. Lotzkar certainly was on Reds fans' radar in 2008, but I think he jumps to the national radar in 09.

camisadelgolf
11-25-2008, 05:50 PM
wrong thread

Superdude
11-25-2008, 06:53 PM
I say Lotzkar too. I think he'll get to AA in a Homer like fashion in '09.

Mario-Rijo
11-25-2008, 07:04 PM
I guess I then should have actually put my "Sleeper" picks here (Parker & Lutz), as this is more fitting but still not quite ideal. Why only the top 20 of our picks? We only have 18 of them at this point for one and most of them have had some degree of breakout. But since that's what it is you want here's mine.

Devin Mesoraco - I think he makes leaps and bounds in terms of defense and his offense should show itself improved as well. I think he should start at Dayton just to get off to a good start before again pushing him up a level higher than his age says to.

TRF
11-25-2008, 07:31 PM
I chose the top 20, and we should know 19 and 20 by thursday, because I figure the breakout player is someone we expect to be good, but rockets forward. The sleeper is a more unknown quantity.

GOYA
11-25-2008, 08:08 PM
2009 will the the year that Homer puts it together. If not, he will rocket forward right out of the organization.

camisadelgolf
11-25-2008, 09:08 PM
I'll go with Devin Mesoraco and Dallas Buck.

Betterread
11-25-2008, 09:45 PM
Which of the top 20 will take their game to the ridiculous level?

No-one is a good bet to do this. We don't have anyone like Bruce, Votto, or Cueto this year.
But I'll say Alonso because he's the #1 prospect. He has the best chance.

mth123
11-25-2008, 10:29 PM
Zack Stewart. He'll be in the Reds bullpen by late August.

He doesn't qualify, but I think 2009 is the year Homer Bailey puts it together. Hopefully the Reds resist the urge and leave him in AAA to dominate. He'll be ready for the rotation on opening day 2010 and he'll still be just 23.

TRF
11-26-2008, 10:46 AM
No-one is a good bet to do this. We don't have anyone like Bruce, Votto, or Cueto this year.
But I'll say Alonso because he's the #1 prospect. He has the best chance.

Neftali Soto was very Bruce like in the MWL this year. about the same age too.

SMcGavin
11-26-2008, 01:03 PM
Lotzkar is the obvious choice for me. Wouldn't be all that surprised to see him end 2009 as the team's #1 prospect.

Farnsie
11-26-2008, 07:38 PM
Sorry if this is question is a little malplaced but I just read this article... http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/11/the_2008_rule_5.php ... where he is "fairly certain" Pedro Viola is available in the Rule 5 draft. I don't know if this has been answered somewhere else but I'd like to go to the bottom with this. So, is Viola available?

The reason I'm asking is because I see him as the breakout minor leaguer in 2008 based on what little I know.

flash
11-26-2008, 08:40 PM
Justin Turner

AmarilloRed
11-27-2008, 02:10 AM
Sorry if this is question is a little misplaced but I just read this article... http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/11/the_2008_rule_5.php ... where he is "fairly certain" Pedro Viola is available in the Rule 5 draft. I don't know if this has been answered somewhere else but I'd like to go to the bottom with this. So, is Viola available?

The reason I'm asking is because I see him as the breakout minor leaguer in 2008 based on what little I know.

No, he is not available. His service time is only 3 years(including his signing period), and I believe you need 5 or 6 to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. He should have a couple more years before he is eligible for the Draft.

Ron Madden
11-27-2008, 05:49 AM
Matt Belisle. :D

camisadelgolf
11-27-2008, 10:11 AM
Sorry if this is question is a little malplaced but I just read this article... http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/11/the_2008_rule_5.php ... where he is "fairly certain" Pedro Viola is available in the Rule 5 draft. I don't know if this has been answered somewhere else but I'd like to go to the bottom with this. So, is Viola available?

The reason I'm asking is because I see him as the breakout minor leaguer in 2008 based on what little I know.

As you may know, a player qualifies for the rule five draft if he is not on the 40-man roster after his fourth or fifth season, depending on his age at the time of the signing. Viola was not 18 years old or younger when he signed (he was 22), so he needs to be on the 40-man roster after his fourth season.

Because Viola signed in 2005, many people think he should qualify for the rule five draft as a result of having a professional contract over four different years. If he had signed in August, 2005, he would be eligible for this year's rule five draft. The thing is, he signed in December, which should mean that his contract counted toward the 2006 season, which also means he has one year left before he needs to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the rule five draft.

I don't know the exact cutoff date for when a player's contract would have counted toward the 2005 season or 2006 season. I would speculate that it was either the first day after the World Series or November 20th.

In other words, Pedro Viola doesn't qualify for this year's rule five draft. I hope that answers the question.

AmarilloRed
11-27-2008, 02:36 PM
He might not make the top 20, but I will go with Alex Buchholz anyway. I think he could end up in Sarasota by the end of the year.

Mario-Rijo
11-27-2008, 03:02 PM
As you may know, a player qualifies for the rule five draft if he is not on the 40-man roster after his fourth or fifth season, depending on his age at the time of the signing. Viola was not 18 years old or younger when he signed (he was 22), so he needs to be on the 40-man roster after his fourth season.

Because Viola signed in 2005, many people think he should qualify for the rule five draft as a result of having a professional contract over four different years. If he had signed in August, 2005, he would be eligible for this year's rule five draft. The thing is, he signed in December, which should mean that his contract counted toward the 2006 season, which also means he has one year left before he needs to be added to the 40-man roster to be protected from the rule five draft.

I don't know the exact cutoff date for when a player's contract would have counted toward the 2005 season or 2006 season. I would speculate that it was either the first day after the World Series or November 20th.

In other words, Pedro Viola doesn't qualify for this year's rule five draft. I hope that answers the question.

Well I think the issue is that he supposedly originally signed with S.F. as a 18 or 19 yr old as a position player I believe. That's why it's questioned to begin with. At least that is what the above link states.

camisadelgolf
11-27-2008, 08:09 PM
Well I think the issue is that he supposedly originally signed with S.F. as a 18 or 19 yr old as a position player I believe. That's why it's questioned to begin with. At least that is what the above link states.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/winter-baseball/arizona-fall-league/2007/265145.html (free content)

It's an interesting story, actually. His first contract was voided because he used a relative's birth certificate.

RED VAN HOT
11-27-2008, 10:07 PM
He might not make the top 20, but I will go with Alex Buchholz anyway. I think he could end up in Sarasota by the end of the year.

An argument could be made for starting him at Sarasota. I can't see that anyone else is a clear choice for 2B there.

camisadelgolf
11-28-2008, 10:41 AM
An argument could be made for starting him at Sarasota. I can't see that anyone else is a clear choice for 2B there.

If it doesn't go to Buchholz, and I doubt it will, I think the job will belong to Jake Kahaulelio. The Reds really seem to like something about him. I think the big knock against him is his lack of power. He can play good defense and take a walk every now and then, though.

kpresidente
11-28-2008, 07:39 PM
nm

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2009, 02:49 PM
*Bump*

I'm bumping this back to the top because I'm curious to see if anyone has changed their mind since November. I still view Neftali Soto as my breakout candidate among hitters, with Juan Francisco a close second. After seeing what Francisco did in the Dominican Winter League, and then seeing him during spring training, I'm convinced he's going to have a big season in Double-A.

Kyle Lotkzar is my number one breakout candidate among pitchers, but I'd like to throw in a couple other candidates too. Juan Carlos Sulbaran is an obvious choice to me. I mentioned him back in November as a potential breakout guy, and after seeing him in the WBC, I feel comfortable with that prediction. I really, really like his stuff. Another guy I like is Pedro Viola. He looked good in his short stint in the WBC, and he's had a great spring with the Reds so far. I was very impressed with what I saw of him on TV. His fastball is consistently at 93/94 and he also mixes in a good breaking ball and a changeup that Mario Soto taught him. And if three isn't enough, I just have to mention Dallas Buck. If he regains his velocity then I expect him to have a very good season.

camisadelgolf
03-27-2009, 04:00 PM
I like flash's pick. :evil:

I picked Devin Mesoraco, but I think the Reds have a lot of catchers in the low minors to keep an eye on--particularly Jordan Wideman and Kyle Day. Day played a lot in the outfield, though, so maybe the Reds aren't too confident in his ability to be a catcher. Then again, maybe his legs were just tired.

I wouldn't qualify them as breakout candidates seeing as how they already tore up the Pioneer League, but I'm really curious to see if some of those guys can maintain that success at a higher level. The guys I have in mind are Tony Brown, Dave Sappelt, Mike Konstanty, Tyler Stovall, Byron Wiley, Alex Buchholz, and Cody Puckett. And even though it didn't always translate to a good ERA, Billings was rich in guys with great K/BB ratios (Leo Astorga, Justin Freeman, Clayton Shunick, Josh Beal, Randall Linebaugh, Mike Bohana, etc.).

Kc61
03-27-2009, 04:55 PM
Sam Lecure is my breakout minor leaguer for 2009.

Stingray
03-27-2009, 04:57 PM
I count about 14 players seriously named through post 35 and that doesn't even count many near ready prospects such as Todd Frazier, Chris Valaika, Josh Roenicke, or Pedro Viola.

I haven't gone back and checked similar threads in previous years, but I think the Reds have the most high-ceiling prospects they've had in my lifetime as a Reds fan. I'm 77 and been a Reds fan since I knew what a baseball was.

It makes you believe the future is bright.

OnBaseMachine
03-27-2009, 05:02 PM
I'm glad you mentioned Byron Wiley. I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs in Dayton this season. Baseball America rated him as the best athlete drafted by the Reds in 2008 and he was also rated as having the best strike-zone discipline among Big-12 hitters going into last year. I was looking at a couple scouting reports on him from Baseball America. They refer to him as a superior athlete with 5-tools. He's got above-average bat speed, a compact swing and can hit for power. He plays a nice center field, though his arm is below-average.

The reason he fell to the Reds in the 22nd round is because he struggled mightily in his senior year. BA said he got draftitis while trying to do too much to impress scouts. His stats show that. As a freshman at Kansas State he hit .297/.425/.483 - .908 in 145 atbats. As a sophomore he hit .366/.494/.526 -1.020 OPS in 194 atbats. This past year he dropped off to a lowly .639 OPS and fell to the Reds in the 22nd round. After signing, he went to Billings and hit .328/.427/.635 - 1.062 OPS and had 27 extra-base hits in 137 atbats.

He's got great tools and good plate discipline. I'm curious to see if he can carry his success into Dayton this season.

Mario-Rijo
03-28-2009, 03:30 PM
No I think I'll stick with my pick Mes. However Jordan Smith certainly has grabbed my attention since then. And of course Pedro is showing what I knew he had when I had my "Vote for Pedro" campaign in RZ's top 40 the year before last.

gedred69
03-28-2009, 06:44 PM
I'm wanting to watch what Jordan Smith does.

Betterread
03-29-2009, 11:25 AM
To get to the ML prospect level - I submit Drew Stubbs. Perhaps this selection is based more on hope that Taveras can be supplanted, summarily if possible.
To recover from injury: I submit Dallas Buck
To go from good arm to lower level success and (suspect) prosepect status: I submit J.C. Sulbaran because of his command of multiple pitches.
To go from anonymity to a name that compulsive Reds fans will start to mention: I submit Blaine Howell - LHP.

Degenerate39
03-29-2009, 11:50 AM
Alonso and Stubbs

Cooper
03-29-2009, 02:12 PM
I am picking Chris Heisey.

Guy does all the little things and the higher up in the system he goes the better chance the big league club notices it.

1. Good OBP in a pitcher's league and a pitcher's park: .375
2. Stolen base ratio 32 steals vs 2 cs.
3. 2 GIDP
4. Best minor league UZR rating (iirc) at +20.

He does all these positive things yet rarely gets any ink. He is a little 2 old to be considered a top 10 prospect, but those numbers he has don't come down the pike every day.

He doesn't need to break out -he just needs to keep doing what he's doing as he moves up the chain. Eventually someone will notice and say -"we got something here".

Ghosts of 1990
04-01-2009, 06:24 AM
juan francisco

Redman15
04-01-2009, 12:28 PM
Danny "Dangerfield" Dorn. Sooner or later he has to get some respect from the organization. I think he will have a breakout year in Louisville and you will see him at GABP in September.

redsmetz
04-01-2009, 01:33 PM
Danny "Dangerfield" Dorn. Sooner or later he has to get some respect from the organization. I think he will have a breakout year in Louisville and you will see him at GABP in September.

Have the Reds really not shown him some respect? I think he's made steady progress through the system. I'm puzzled by saying he hasn't gotten respect.

HotCorner
04-01-2009, 01:36 PM
Soto and Sulbaran.

BRM
04-01-2009, 01:39 PM
Have the Reds really not shown him some respect? I think he's made steady progress through the system. I'm puzzled by saying he hasn't gotten respect.

I think the lack of a spring training invite is the primary reason for that line of thinking. Plus the perception that he may start in AA this year.

dougdirt
04-01-2009, 02:38 PM
Have the Reds really not shown him some respect? I think he's made steady progress through the system. I'm puzzled by saying he hasn't gotten respect.

Well, the Reds went into the oddseason talking about needing a power hitting left fielder. Dorn, who plays left field, over 495 PA in AA has hit .284/.379/.565 yet couldn't even get an invite to spring training while guys like Jacque Jones and Darnell McDonald did. That seems to be a lack of respect for his game in my opinion.

redsmetz
04-01-2009, 03:23 PM
Well, the Reds went into the oddseason talking about needing a power hitting left fielder. Dorn, who plays left field, over 495 PA in AA has hit .284/.379/.565 yet couldn't even get an invite to spring training while guys like Jacque Jones and Darnell McDonald did. That seems to be a lack of respect for his game in my opinion.

Points taken, Doug & BRM.

Orenda
04-01-2009, 04:08 PM
Don't know if I'd consider these guys breakout players but I'll go with:
Lhp- Alexander Smit
2b/utiliy- Danny Richar

Kingspoint
04-01-2009, 06:51 PM
Well, the Reds went into the oddseason talking about needing a power hitting left fielder. Dorn, who plays left field, over 495 PA in AA has hit .284/.379/.565 yet couldn't even get an invite to spring training while guys like Jacque Jones and Darnell McDonald did. That seems to be a lack of respect for his game in my opinion.

I still don't know the purpose of having Jones in camp.

RED VAN HOT
04-01-2009, 10:20 PM
I picked Heisey and Horst earlier. I still like both to crack the top 10 when we do our polls to fill in the baseball dead zone next fall.

I predict that the biggest move, however, will be made by Alex Buchholz. He will move two levels and OPS .950.

Mario-Rijo
04-01-2009, 10:32 PM
I picked Heisey and Horst earlier. I still like both to crack the top 10 when we do our polls to fill in the baseball dead zone next fall.

I predict that the biggest move, however, will be made by Alex Buchholz. He will move two levels and OPS .950.

I love Bucholz's bat as well and agree he will move faster than most of his class. I think he can legitimately get into the top 10 this year. Heisey and Horst, eh not as much.

thorn
04-01-2009, 11:04 PM
Heisey and Dorn will IMO force the Reds to make some tough decision in Sept and the upcomming off season. But I think Valaika will take over the SS position by Sep and this will be the last year for Gonzo and Harriston. I'm almost afraid for the Reds to compete this year, I could see them trading some young talent for a 3 month rental if we are in the race, but I guess that's a good problem to have.

Scrap Irony
04-01-2009, 11:44 PM
Dallas Buck has a feel for pitching, the mentality to dominate even when his stuff is lacking, and a great offense behind him (assuming AA, of course). If he can regain three mph on his fastball and his movement also returns, he's a legitimate #3 starter in the majors.

My guess is he wins a ton, with solid periphials and a low era. A ground ball pitcher with a K pitch almost always dominates in AA. (And the majors, for that matter.)

BigRed07
04-02-2009, 12:51 AM
I think the lack of a spring training invite is the primary reason for that line of thinking. Plus the perception that he may start in AA this year.

Danny also wanted to play winter ball and they didn't get him on a team. He was told to try and hook up with a team on his own. So he went back to school.

Mario-Rijo
04-02-2009, 02:34 AM
Dallas Buck has a feel for pitching, the mentality to dominate even when his stuff is lacking, and a great offense behind him (assuming AA, of course). If he can regain three mph on his fastball and his movement also returns, he's a legitimate #3 starter in the majors.

My guess is he wins a ton, with solid periphials and a low era. A ground ball pitcher with a K pitch almost always dominates in AA. (And the majors, for that matter.)

Very true, Webb-Esque. Good analysis SI.

Mario-Rijo
04-02-2009, 02:35 AM
Danny also wanted to play winter ball and they didn't get him on a team. He was told to try and hook up with a team on his own. So he went back to school.

My goodness, that is really disrespectful. I will be rooting just a tad harder than usual for him.

gedred69
04-02-2009, 08:28 PM
My goodness, that is really disrespectful. I will be rooting just a tad harder than usual for him.

It's not possible for me to root any harder for him. At worst he could be a decent imitation of Dunn in the power dept. (30-35 HRs, 90-100+RBI) with a 20pt. higher BA, and at least an up-grade defensively in LF. There is a fantastic article on him in the Minor League threads from a while ago. He deserves a lot more of an opportunity than the organization has afforded him thus far.

Mario-Rijo
04-02-2009, 09:03 PM
It's not possible for me to root any harder for him. At worst he could be a decent imitation of Dunn in the power dept. (30-35 HRs, 90-100+RBI) with a 20pt. higher BA, and at least an up-grade defensively in LF. There is a fantastic article on him in the Minor League threads from a while ago. He deserves a lot more of an opportunity than the organization has afforded him thus far.

Yeah I have always liked him plenty, but it seems like maybe the organization feels like he isn't quite talented enough to be a major leaguer. I know that's a lot to gleen from so little but it just feels that way. A shame, he'll likely get dealt at some point and we will get robbed in that deal.

GIDP
04-02-2009, 10:32 PM
Devin Mesoraco is a safe pick.

Mario-Rijo
04-03-2009, 01:25 AM
Devin Mesoraco is a safe pick.

I picked him also but "a safe pick" IDK about that. Especially when he is probably gonna be rushed right to Sarasota just like he was rushed to Dayton.

Kingspoint
04-06-2009, 03:16 PM
Dallas Buck has a great shot at having the most growth of any minor leaguer in the REDS's system. It all depends upon how well he recovers from the TJ surgery. So far, so good.