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View Full Version : The 'What's All the Hype' pick



RedlegJake
11-30-2008, 07:48 AM
This time the pick is the biggest disappointment - the player that drives you crazy because everyone else props him big time but you just don't see it and expect his ultimate ineptitude to finally become obvious. You're screaming at the monitor "Whattyayounutsss!!" every time someone else mentions his name. (Kinda like what I had a bunch of ya doin' when I picked Derrick Hale as my sleeper!!)

My ultimate primed to disappoint pick is Juan Francisco. The runner up would be Alex Buchholz. I actually love both these guys but they ARE primed to disappoint - Francisco may never find the discipline required to unlock his massive potential, and Buchholz' great Billings start is a recipe for a letdown. I give them props on the board but I'm holding my breath when I do. At this point propping them is like sawing on the limb you're sitting on but you can't tell for sure which end is attached to the tree.

camisadelgolf
11-30-2008, 09:24 AM
Chris Heisey
He's a backup outfielder. Get over it.

Sean Henry
See: Chris Heisey.

Matt Maloney
I realize what it says on the back of his baseball card, but he's a back-of-the-rotation starter at best. Sorry.

Ben Jukich
He's 26 years old, doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, doesn't have exceptional command, doesn't have much velocity, and almost always has a high WHIP. Okay, he's left-handed and has a curveball, but what am I missing?

Chris Valaika
Until he develops more power, he's going to be Brandon Phillips minus the speed and defense. That's not too impressive, if you ask me. I think he will gain some power at some point, but until then, I don't see him as a such a big prospect.

Todd Frazier
He might as well be called 'god' on RedsZone. No one seems to think he can do any wrong. The thing is, he's fated for a corner spot, where his bat will just be average (not that that doesn't have value). He's just not the future superstar many are predicting him to be.

Jose Castro
Thankfully, this has died down quite a bit over the past year. Relatively speaking, he's absolutely terrible. Do I need to remind you all of the last Castro with a similar skill set?

Travis Wood
I like the potential, but I think he's a future LOOGY. A great changeup and lacking command isn't too dominant without a good fastball.

Phil Valiquette
He's all potential and no production. He's got a long way to go if he's going to be a anything close to a Major League LOOGY, and I'd bet a chunk of cash that he doesn't get there.

Zach Stewart
Some people act like he's so amazing that he could make the Reds out of spring training. Forgive the hyperbole, but it sounds to me like people think he could already dominate AA. He's advanced for his age, but 11 BB in 16.2 IP doesn't scream "ready for big league camp" to me.

I'm also tempted to add Nefi Soto to the list, but I think that would be a little too controversial.

Mario-Rijo
11-30-2008, 09:36 AM
This time the pick is the biggest disappointment - the player that drives you crazy because everyone else props him big time but you just don't see it and expect his ultimate ineptitude to finally become obvious. You're screaming at the monitor "Whattyayounutsss!!" every time someone else mentions his name. (Kinda like what I had a bunch of ya doin' when I picked Derrick Hale as my sleeper!!)

My ultimate primed to disappoint pick is Juan Francisco. The runner up would be Alex Buchholz. I actually love both these guys but they ARE primed to disappoint - Francisco may never find the discipline required to unlock his massive potential, and Buchholz' great Billings start is a recipe for a letdown. I give them props on the board but I'm holding my breath when I do. At this point propping them is like sawing on the limb you're sitting on but you can't tell for sure which end is attached to the tree.

I don't necc. agree with Bucholz being a prime candidate to disappoint however I don't expect the 2B version of Neftali Soto either. A 2nd year and at a higher level should tell us a little more about him, which I think eventually it will become clear he's a solid future big leaguer. However I am with you on Francisco as everyone already knows about my feelings on him. Simply put I don't expect him to be able to make enough significant contact going forward and his already low BB total isn't likely to improve either and may even diminish. That plus his growing reputation for putting on weight scream bust in the making. IMO right now he's prime trade bait and I would do it now, his value may never be higher.

Zach Cozart may end up being a bust, IMO he's leaning that way. I hope he doesn't but it'll take another solid year out of him for me to consider him leaning the other way.

Really I should add any prospect who hasn't done a single thing but sign a big $$$ contract and automatically get ranked high. But I won't because I wanna do right by the player's and give them a fair shake.

mth123
11-30-2008, 09:57 AM
Two guys in this category really stand out IMO:

Devin Mesoraco

His bat looks passable for a catcher, but so far he really can't play catcher. He has a lot of time but its the main thing that really keeps him on the radar. If he can't play catcher, not only is he not a prospect, he probably doesn't even deserve to take up a roster spot as an organizational player. He really needs to take a step forward behind the plate in 2009 IMO.

Chris Valaika

He projects as a sub .800 OPS guy which only plays up the middle somewhere. Guys who have endless questions about whether they can stick at a position scare the heck out of me. Usually if they stick, they struggle their entire career to avoid being a liability on defense. I'd just assume pass on that unless the bat is really special. Valaika's bat is not of the special variety. He's short on power, short on patience and is simply the above average for a MI type. Lacks defense, lacks power, lacks patience. Sounds like an offensive minded utility player who needs to hit for a high average to justify even a bench spot. He actually may do that.

Mario-Rijo
11-30-2008, 10:09 AM
Chris Heisey
He's a backup outfielder. Get over it.

Sean Henry
See: Chris Heisey.

Matt Maloney
I realize what it says on the back of his baseball card, but he's a back-of-the-rotation starter at best. Sorry.

Ben Jukich
He's 26 years old, doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, doesn't have exceptional command, doesn't have much velocity, and almost always has a high WHIP. Okay, he's left-handed and has a curveball, but what am I missing?

Chris Valaika
Until he develops more power, he's going to be Brandon Phillips minus the speed and defense. That's not too impressive, if you ask me. I think he will gain some power at some point, but until then, I don't see him as a such a big prospect.

Todd Frazier
He might as well be called 'god' on RedsZone. No one seems to think he can do any wrong. The thing is, he's fated for a corner spot, where his bat will just be average (not that that doesn't have value). He's just not the future superstar many are predicting him to be.

Jose Castro
Thankfully, this has died down quite a bit over the past year. Relatively speaking, he's absolutely terrible. Do I need to remind you all of the last Castro with a similar skill set?

Travis Wood
I like the potential, but I think he's a future LOOGY. A great changeup and lacking command isn't too dominant without a good fastball.

Phil Valiquette
He's all potential and no production. He's got a long way to go if he's going to be a anything close to a Major League LOOGY, and I'd bet a chunk of cash that he doesn't get there.

Zach Stewart
Some people act like he's so amazing that he could make the Reds out of spring training. Forgive the hyperbole, but it sounds to me like people think he could already dominate AA. He's advanced for his age, but 11 BB in 16.2 IP doesn't scream "ready for big league camp" to me.

I'm also tempted to add Nefi Soto to the list, but I think that would be a little too controversial.

Heisey - I agree.
Henry - I agree somewhat but think he could be a tad better.
Maloney - It's hard to argue he's any better than what you stated.
Jukich - Huh, he's been hyped? I don't agree he's been hyped much if at all.

Valaika - If he gains more power he's not what you described let alone now. But he still gonna be a solid starter, and BP is better than a lot of major league players.

Frazier - Frazier is overhyped, how? He is what he is a consensus top 3 player in the system. Doesn't mean he's a superstar and i've never seen anyone call him that. But if he does play 3B which I expect him to do, he's likely more than "average".

Castro - He's never been hyped.

Wood - He doesn't have a FB? 88-91 & still just 21 years old so you could end up right but to call that now is a bit premature.

Valiquette - I couldn't agree more he's got a great arm but likely no future.

Stewart - Again a bit pre-mature.

kfm
11-30-2008, 11:01 AM
Chris Heisey
He's a backup outfielder. Get over it.

Sean Henry
See: Chris Heisey.

Matt Maloney
I realize what it says on the back of his baseball card, but he's a back-of-the-rotation starter at best. Sorry.

Ben Jukich
He's 26 years old, doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, doesn't have exceptional command, doesn't have much velocity, and almost always has a high WHIP. Okay, he's left-handed and has a curveball, but what am I missing?

Chris Valaika
Until he develops more power, he's going to be Brandon Phillips minus the speed and defense. That's not too impressive, if you ask me. I think he will gain some power at some point, but until then, I don't see him as a such a big prospect.

Todd Frazier
He might as well be called 'god' on RedsZone. No one seems to think he can do any wrong. The thing is, he's fated for a corner spot, where his bat will just be average (not that that doesn't have value). He's just not the future superstar many are predicting him to be.

Jose Castro
Thankfully, this has died down quite a bit over the past year. Relatively speaking, he's absolutely terrible. Do I need to remind you all of the last Castro with a similar skill set?

Travis Wood
I like the potential, but I think he's a future LOOGY. A great changeup and lacking command isn't too dominant without a good fastball.

Phil Valiquette
He's all potential and no production. He's got a long way to go if he's going to be a anything close to a Major League LOOGY, and I'd bet a chunk of cash that he doesn't get there.

Zach Stewart
Some people act like he's so amazing that he could make the Reds out of spring training. Forgive the hyperbole, but it sounds to me like people think he could already dominate AA. He's advanced for his age, but 11 BB in 16.2 IP doesn't scream "ready for big league camp" to me.

I'm also tempted to add Nefi Soto to the list, but I think that would be a little too controversial.

How can you make a list like this and basically include everyone even hint that you should include Neftali Soto and not mention Homer Bailey? You could actually rename this the Homer Bailey thread.

Kc61
11-30-2008, 01:43 PM
My ultimate primed to disappoint pick is Juan Francisco. The runner up would be Alex Buchholz. I actually love both these guys but they ARE primed to disappoint - Francisco may never find the discipline required to unlock his massive potential, and Buchholz' great Billings start is a recipe for a letdown. I give them props on the board but I'm holding my breath when I do. At this point propping them is like sawing on the limb you're sitting on but you can't tell for sure which end is attached to the tree.

Francisco isn't primed to disappoint because we all know his weakness, it's been the subject of post after post for years, RedZoners compare him to WM Pena. It won't be very surprising if he has trouble getting over this tendency.

Buchholz isn't primed to disappoint because he isn't that highly touted a prospect to begin with. He's a guy who hit well in his first season, has caught the eye of RedsZoners, but nowhere is listed as one of the exceptional prospects in baseball.

And ultimately it doesn't matter how any individual prospect does -- if the team has the depth necessary to succeed. The Reds have done a good job of stockpiling prospects and I am confident some will break through.

If Bailey doesn't succeed, I can live with it because they acquired Volquez and developed Cueto. I don't focus on Francisco alone, because Alonso and Frazier are in the same basic age group and also are power hitters. At least one of them should make it.

I'm a big supporter of Francisco and I do think he'll succeed for a number of reasons. But I'm more excited to see Francisco, Frazier and Alonso all at AA next year and hope that at least one emerges as a major addition.

camisadelgolf
11-30-2008, 02:19 PM
How can you make a list like this and basically include everyone even hint that you should include Neftali Soto and not mention Homer Bailey? You could actually rename this the Homer Bailey thread.

I feel like I see a lot more Bailey-bashing than Bailey praise. Besides, he's not a rookie anymore.

M2
11-30-2008, 05:51 PM
Homer's vying with Kurt Stillwell to be the most over-hyped Reds prospect ever.

Does Mesoraco still have hype? Maybe around here, but he wasn't on the BA top 20 for the MWL and I haven't read a single positive mention about his game for the past year.

Anyway, my overhype radar is picking up Kyle Lotzkar. He looks to be on a blow-out-your-arm program to me.

lollipopcurve
11-30-2008, 06:06 PM
Dorn -- corner outfielder who doesn't run or defend well. Doesn't hit lefthanders. Will be 24/25 next year and hasn't been out of AA. Wonder why he isn't playing winter ball.

mace
11-30-2008, 06:11 PM
Carlos Fisher. Nothing against the guy. It's just that he'll be 26 and, other than 17 innings in AAA, I haven't seen anything special.

On the hitters, my pick is split:

Todd Frazier. Don't really see position, speed or exceptional power. I see a major-leaguer, I suppose, but not the 1 or 2 guy in the system.

Drew Stubbs. I'm not a Stubbs-basher at all. I like his speed and defense and on-base and even his prospects of power. But without more contact, I just don't see that translating into the stardom that would befit his ranking on Redszone.

Good thread.

Caveat Emperor
11-30-2008, 06:44 PM
Drew Stubbs -- he's Chris Dickerson, except 2 years younger and without as much pop.

I'd love to find someone who is in love with his "toolsy" profile and unload him for something useful.

mace
11-30-2008, 06:56 PM
I'd love to find someone who is in love with his "toolsy" profile and unload him for something useful.

What do the Nationals have?

dougdirt
11-30-2008, 07:17 PM
Drew Stubbs -- he's Chris Dickerson, except 2 years younger and without as much pop.

I'd love to find someone who is in love with his "toolsy" profile and unload him for something useful.

He is Chris Dickerson but younger, strikes out quite a bit less and has actually improved his strikeout rate at each level unlike Dickerson, and prior to Dickerson's age 26 season in AAA, had a .415 to .402 career SLG% edge on Dickerson too.

So really, he is Chris Dickerson with more contact, better OB skills and similar power but more power potential to go with better defense and he is 2 years younger.

JayBruceFan
11-30-2008, 07:58 PM
Devin Mesoraco

Screwball
12-01-2008, 03:37 AM
Todd Frazier. Don't really see position, speed or exceptional power. I see a major-leaguer, I suppose, but not the 1 or 2 guy in the system.


I'd argue he does, in fact, have exceptional power. He did just get done slugging a ridiculous .547 (#1 in the HWL) in a notorious pitcher's park/league. For his career outside of winter leagues, he's slugged .503 over 672 ABs. Again, those numbers are in pitcher's leagues (MWL and FSL). I expect him to take off in Carolina.

icehole3
12-01-2008, 08:03 AM
Im astonished at this thread, was wondering this camisadelgolf, who other than Alonso is a legit prospect in the Reds organization since you basically bashed just about every Red in the organization? Does our organization suck that bad?

JayBruceFan
12-01-2008, 09:28 AM
Travis Wood was hurt most of the year and is still really young

So give him a break


Philippe Valiquette is younger than Wood and was drafted a full year before he was

Not sure if you know this but he was drafted at age 17 and played in Dayton at age 18 year old so I think he still has more than enough time to prove himself

TRF
12-01-2008, 10:39 AM
He is Chris Dickerson but younger, strikes out quite a bit less and has actually improved his strikeout rate at each level unlike Dickerson, and prior to Dickerson's age 26 season in AAA, had a .415 to .402 career SLG% edge on Dickerson too.

So really, he is Chris Dickerson with more contact, better OB skills and similar power but more power potential to go with better defense and he is 2 years younger.

I have no words.

mace
12-01-2008, 11:25 AM
I'd argue he does, in fact, have exceptional power. He did just get done slugging a ridiculous .547 (#1 in the HWL) in a notorious pitcher's park/league. For his career outside of winter leagues, he's slugged .503 over 672 ABs. Again, those numbers are in pitcher's leagues (MWL and FSL). I expect him to take off in Carolina.

Perhaps. You make a nice point. If I might quibble, isn't the Midwest a hitters league (could be wrong)?

And still, I might reserve the description of "exceptional power" for the likes of Francisco and Soto. In Sarasota, Francisco hit more HR/AB while a year younger than Frazier, and in Dayton he led the league in HR (if I'm not mistaken). Soto has a .522 career (albeit brief career) slugging pct at the age of 19 (three years younger than Frazier).

Maybe I'm splitting hairs. Anyway, I suppose I can see Frazier with Votto-type power, which would play well in GABP.

M2
12-01-2008, 12:00 PM
I have no words.

New Stubbs fun fact - his OPS+ in the AFL was 53.

camisadelgolf
12-01-2008, 12:12 PM
New Stubbs fun fact - his OPS+ in the AFL was 53.

And what does pointing that out accomplish? Are you trying to imply that he's more of a .636 OPSer than a .782 OPSer?

The lowest OPS he's ever had was .768, and that was when he was in Billings a couple years ago. If you want to suggest that his 85 at-bats in the AFL mean something, we can do that. We'll go ahead and play the small sample size game.

He had a .834 OPS in 75 at-bats in AAA. He had a .802 OPS in 92 at-bats at AA. In 109 at-bats in August, he had a .861 OPS. In July, he had a .855 OPS over 82 at-bats. In April, he had a .944 OPS over 95 at-bats. In his 95 at-bats as a number two hitter, he has a .886 OPS.

Drew Stubbs is a baseball player. Sometimes he struggles, and sometimes he thrives. He struggled in the AFL, but overall, he had a relatively successful season. I just don't understand why someone would think such a small sample size could have a meaning as big as you imply.

M2
12-01-2008, 12:28 PM
And what does pointing that out accomplish? Are you trying to imply that he's more of a .636 OPSer than a .782 OPSer?

Umm, what the thread titled? It seemed to fit into the theme.

Plus, TRF has made no secret of his distaste for Stubbs' game and I thought he'd get a kick out of that number.

For my part, all his AFL performance is reinforce my longstanding take on the guy - that he's mercurial and that his downs likely will overwhelm his ups as he plays at higher levels. BA's top 10 AFL prospects (and I assume top 10 HWB) prospects will be out soon. Should be interesting to see where/if Stubbs, Alonso and Frazier get listed.

If Stubbs doesn't make the AFL top 10 (and I think it's fair to say he'd be a surprise inclusion given some of the names that played in that league this season), you actually might be able to make the case that he's underrated.

Orenda
12-01-2008, 12:33 PM
I'd go with Stubbs. A good defensive outfielder with speed and on-base skills are a plus thing to have at the major league level but he hasn't shown a whole lot to prove to me that he can duplicate his minor league numbers in the majors. His less than impressive numbers from rookie through A-ball leave me scratching my head as to why some people are so willing to pronounce him the supperior to Henry and Heisey. Yes he got hot in limited action in the higher minors but he then went out and got owned in the AFL.

I think too much is being made of those at-bats because he goes through these hot and cold streaks on an annual basis. One plus about Stubbs has been that his final numbers have at least stayed pretty consistent which gives some hope for the future. But that hole that seems to come and go with his swing will more than likely be ate alive at the majors which gives me concern about his OBP skills going forward. Defense alone doesn't play in CF, you can find plenty of Darren Lewis's and Corey Patterson's who can run it down in CF but arent consistent enough with the bat to be above-average. My prediction for Stubbs is that he will be a headache for reds fans before the team finally sells him for peanuts, I also envision that he could possibly vindicate his supporters sometime later in his career, (27-30) where he starts to resemble Mike Cameron, but is that really worth all the hype and time?

TRF
12-01-2008, 12:43 PM
My biggest problem with Stubbs is sample size. He stunk in the AFL, so it's the sample size that is the problem. He did well at AAA, but the sample is discounted because he did well. But if you look at his largest sample this year, A+ he was OWNED after a torrid start.. In fact, his decline started 2.5 weeks into the 2008 season. Right at 200 AB's of sub 66.0 OPS ball. FSL or not, that flat sucks. And it goes to pattern.

Hot start followed by a big dropoff. The league adjusts to him pretty quick, but what we HAVEN'T seen is whether he can adjust back.

Let me clear when I state it isn't that I don't believe he can, just that he hasn't done it. He certainly didn't in the FSL. He MAY have started to in AA, or it may have been a good week. AAA is just too small a sample.

I'm all for promoting guys aggressively when they tear a league up. somebody wake me when Stubbs does that.

oh and M2.. that's pretty funny. I think we should have a "fun facts" thread about all the Red's prospects. keeps 'em human.

OnBaseMachine
12-01-2008, 12:52 PM
And here we go. Over/under of this turning into a six page thread? I'll take the over.

M2
12-01-2008, 12:56 PM
Just for the record, here's Stubbs' 2008 season, AFL included:

.265/.355/.404, 555 AB, 95 runs, 39 D, 7 T, 8 HR, 75 RBI, 39-49 SB, 78 BB, 152 K

fearofpopvol1
12-01-2008, 01:00 PM
I think Francisco is a pretty good choice for this thread.

TRF
12-01-2008, 01:22 PM
And here we go. Over/under of this turning into a six page thread? I'll take the over.

Nah, I'm done. doug and I have hashed this out too much. only time will tell now. Actually I really hope I'm wrong.

But I think I am finally done on the Stubbs topic.

dougdirt
12-01-2008, 01:50 PM
I have no words.

Of course you don't because you saw that I was absolutely correct with everything that I stated there.

TRF
12-01-2008, 02:30 PM
Of course you don't because you saw that I was absolutely correct with everything that I stated there.

no you weren't, because you conveniently left out the sample size part.

but seriously dude, i'm done.

dougdirt
12-01-2008, 02:30 PM
no you weren't, because you conveniently left out the sample size part.

but seriously dude, i'm done.

Sample size of over 1300 PA.... but sure.

camisadelgolf
12-01-2008, 03:12 PM
Umm, what the thread titled? It seemed to fit into the theme.

I'm sorry I overreacted a little bit. I agree that Stubbs isn't worthy of a lot of the hype he receives, but what bothered me was that it seemed like you were implying that his 85 at-bats in the AFL should somehow cancel out a lot of the 1,000+ at-bats he's had from Billings to Louisville.

M2
12-01-2008, 03:17 PM
I'm sorry I overreacted a little bit. I agree that Stubbs isn't worthy of a lot of the hype he receives, but what bothered me was that it seemed like you were implying that his 85 at-bats in the AFL should somehow cancel out a lot of the 1,000+ at-bats he's had from Billings to Louisville.

I didn't mean to imply anything of the sort, just pointed out that the after dinner chocolate he served up in 2008 was Crunchy Frog.

kfm
12-01-2008, 07:37 PM
I feel like I see a lot more Bailey-bashing than Bailey praise. Besides, he's not a rookie anymore.

I don't see anywhere that it has to be a rookie. I see quite a bit of Homer praising. I want to see Homer be successful, but I don't know if he will ever pan out and maybe he will just never pan out in this organization. I think he fits the criteria of this to a tee in fact better than any Reds prospect. After looking at your earlier list, can you tell us who you consider not to be overhyped?

camisadelgolf
12-02-2008, 07:09 AM
I don't see anywhere that it has to be a rookie. I see quite a bit of Homer praising. I want to see Homer be successful, but I don't know if he will ever pan out and maybe he will just never pan out in this organization. I think he fits the criteria of this to a tee in fact better than any Reds prospect. After looking at your earlier list, can you tell us who you consider not to be overhyped?

I believe that Bailey was over-hyped before the start of the 2008 season, but now I would say he's under-hyped. Essentially, the Reds have asked Bailey not to use his best pitch so he could learn to be a more complete pitcher. I'm not going to hold his AAA numbers from the year against him. Toward the end of the year, he was throwing in the mid-90s again. I think he's just a couple years of improving his command and a good pitching coach away from being a #2 starter.