View Full Version : NFL Picks: Week 14

12-03-2008, 10:36 AM

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 127-64-1
Record Picking Redskins Games: 6-6
Against the Spread: 25-24-2
Lock of the Week: 7-5-1

Last Week's Pats: Nailed my Lock of the Week for the third week in a row, correctly predicting Denver to cover the 9 points in New York. I also called the "upset" in the battle of bottom feeders in Oakland. I will also give myself a gentle pat on the back for calling an ugly win for the Colts in Cleveland.

Last Week's Apologies: Sometimes I pick upset to be cute or make a splash. But last week, I REALLY thought the Redskins were going to knock off the Giants. For some ridiculous reason, I was extremely confident in that pick. Not only did the Redskins not knock of the Giants, but they failed to cover the spread and were generally dominated from the opening kickoff. Apologies to Big Blue, who look borderline unbeatable at this point.

This Week's Picks:

Oakland at San Diego: The 2008 Chargers may go down as one of the more disappointing teams in recent NFL history. Even worse news for Chargers fans is that it sounds as if Norv Turner's job is secure. I see them getting a win by default this week, but it won't even begin to erase the memories from this horrible season in San Diego.

Chargers 27, Raiders 12

Jacksonville at Chicago: Just in case we needed any more evidence that the Jaguars quit in their game against the Vikings two weeks ago, they made sure to send the message loud and clear again last week in Houston.

Bears 26, Jaguars 14

Minnesota at Detroit: I've been saying all season that the Lions will NOT go 0-16. I've changed my mind.

Vikings 28, Lions 17

Houston at Green Bay: After throttling the Bears three weeks ago, the Packers looked primed to make a playoff run. But they've followed up that impressive performance with two clunkers against the Saints and Panthers. I'll give them a win this week, but I am officially off the Green Bay bandwagon.

Packers 29, Texans 23

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cleveland last week, Cincinnati this week, Detroit next week. Life is good in Indy.

Colts 35, Bengals 13

Atlanta at New Orleans: The Falcons have toasted me all season long. It's not that I don't respect what they've done-- I simply keep expecting them to come back to earth at least a little bit. I'm going to stick with my gut one more week, but if Atlanta pulls this one out, then I may be forced to start considering them serious contenders in the NFC.

Saints 27, Falcons 24

Philadelphia at New York Giants: I could really see an upset here because I think at some point the Giants are bound to relax a bit, and I like the way the Eagles responded against Arizona last week. Having said that, the Giants have earned too much of my respect to pick against them at this point.

Giants 24, Eagles 20

Cleveland at Tennessee: Ken Dorsey may be in for a long, long day.

Titans 25, Browns 12

Miami at Buffalo: I guess "at Buffalo" isn't very accurate. I'm not sure how playing the game in Toronto will affect either team, but I'm playing a hunch here that the Bills return the loss that the Dolphins handed them down in Miami earlier this year.

Bills 17, Dolphins 15

Kansas City at Denver: Two weeks ago the Broncos had arguably the worst loss of the NFL season thus far when they lost at home to Oakland by three touchdowns. However, Denver bounced back last week and snagged one of the more impressive victories of the season by crushing the Jets in New York. Which Denver team shows up this week? I'll split the difference and give them a workmanlike win over the Chiefs.

Broncos 27, Chiefs 17

New York Jets at San Francisco: What I saw last week from the Jets really bothered me, but you've got to respect their 8-4 record at this point. I see them running the ball very well in San Francisco this week, but it will not be an easy win.

Jets 20, 49ers 17

New England at Seattle: The Patriots are a bit desperate for a win right now after having been pounded by the Steelers last week. Seattle seems like a good spot for desperate teams.

Patriots 26, Seahawks 20

St. Louis at Arizona: Until the Cardinals step up and win a game against a top contender, I'll continue to have my doubts. They get another "luxury" game this week against one of the Tree Stooges of the NFC West.

Cardinals 38, Rams 17

Dallas at Pittsburgh: I think this game is going to be incredibly close. There is a very strong part of me that wants to pick the upset, but I was so impressed by what the Steelers did to the Patriots last week that I'll stick with the home team here. As a betting man, I wouldn't touch this game with a 10 foot pole.

Steelers 23, Cowboys 22

Washington at Baltimore: There is this sick part of me, deep down in my gut, that sees the Redskins shocking the masses and taking home a 10 point victory. But sometimes, you must wave off your gut and instead follow logic, reason, and reality. If the NFL awarded the Redskins 6 points every time they cross the 50 this week, I'm still not sure they'd score 20.

Ravens 19, Redskins 10

Tampa Bay at Carolina: When picking games, I love to go with trends, "due's," and history. For the most part, it's been a solid strategy for me. But sometimes, you just need to choose the better team. Even though I think the trends point towards Carolina this week, I simply think Tampa Bay is a tougher, more physical football team. I see the Bucs winning it in the 4th quarter in a great late-season Monday Nighter.

Bucs 24, Panthers 22

4 To Score

Lock of the Week:

Eagles (+9) at Giants. Playing a hunch here that the Eagles keep it close.

2. Bucs (+3) at Panthers. Again, the "better team" theory rules here.
3. Colts (-13.5) vs. Bengals. Going against the Bengals is usually a smart bet.
4. Bills (-1) vs. Dolphins. Didn't really like a fourth game this week, so I'll toss a coin on the Pick Em'.

12-03-2008, 11:45 PM
How the heck are the Bengals going to get 13 pts. against the Colts? Even 4 field goals only come out to 12. ;)


Chip R
12-04-2008, 11:55 AM
How the heck are the Bengals going to get 13 pts. against the Colts? Even 4 field goals only come out to 12. ;)


They will let the Bengals play by Canadian rules. 12 players, and the rouge.

Dom Heffner
12-04-2008, 04:56 PM
Good to see we don't have any "The Lions murdered the Bucs in the 80s so I'm going against them this week" posts.

That thread two weeks ago had me biting my tongue.

I sense a rant coming on about this in another thread lol.

Caveat Emperor
12-04-2008, 05:58 PM
Good to see we don't have any "The Lions murdered the Bucs in the 80s so I'm going against them this week" posts.

That thread two weeks ago had me biting my tongue.

I sense a rant coming on about this in another thread lol.

I'm sports-superstitious, especially when it comes to Tampa Bay football. They're a team that finds a way to pass idiocy and curse from generation to generation. It's the only thing that explains such oddities as never returning a kickoff for a touchdown until last year, or having an ungodly awful record in cold weather games. Is there any logic to it? Nope. But the numbers and trends are what they are.

Sue me. ;)

Dom Heffner
12-04-2008, 06:26 PM
But the numbers and trends are what they are.

But they are not caused by what is proposed, IMHO.

That's all I'm saying. You guys had them dead to rights two weeks ago and someone even brought up Barry Sanders.

The Bucs are kinda good, and the Lions are historically bad, and that's what determined the game.

And I could never sue a Bucs fan. I live just north of the stadium off the very same road, so it's tough not to follow them. :)