Homer Bailey and Jermaine Dye Trade Rumor (threads merged)

[OnBaseMachine]

Source: Reds deal Bailey for White Sox slugger
Jermaine Dye, a 12-year veteran with a .278 career average, would give team a proven right-handed batter.

By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Sunday, December 07, 2008

With baseball's annual winter meetings unfurling this week at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, rumors run rampant.

A noteworthy one involving the Cincinnati Reds is making the rounds — pitcher Homer Bailey for Chicago White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye.

A major-league source close to the situation told The Dayton Daily News on Sunday, Dec. 7, "The deal is done and will be announced this week."

The Reds are in the market for an outfielder and moving Bailey makes sense. The 22-year-old righthander, the team's No. 1 draft pick in 2004, has not lived up to high expectations and some club officials believe a change of venue would be best for him.

Bailey was 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in eight starts with the Reds last year and was only 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA at Class AAA Louisville.

He won only one game at Louisville after April and that was in September.

And he didn't enamor himself with the team when he was demoted to Louisville in early August and said he welcomed the demotion because Louisville had a winning atmosphere and the clubhouse was more fun.

Dye, 34, is a 12-year veteran with a .278 career major-league average after hitting .292 last season in 154 games.

He is a right-handed bat, something the Reds need, and he hit 34 homers with 96 RBIs playing for the White Sox in homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/12/07/ddn120808spredsweb.html

[Ron Madden]

I wonder who else is involved.

[Cyclone792]

Well it was certainly rumored to happen, and while it's not concrete, I'd have to think Hal has a pretty good source if he's posting this already. I think what I'm most interested about is if it's just a straight up Dye for Bailey swap, or if there are other players involved.

I've long maintained that as long as Bailey had problems finding the strike zone that he was going to struggle, and it finally seems the Reds realized he might help the organization more as trade bait than by waiting around to see if he could locate his pitches.

[OnBaseMachine]

If it's only Homer then I don't have too much of a problem with it. If the Reds are adding prospects then it's a bad deal IMO.

[RedRoser]

We have our righthanded hitting leftfielder. Good move, IMO.

[dougdirt]

Well that kind of sucks.

[OnBaseMachine]

Jay Bruce
Jermaine Dye
Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion

That's a great 3-6.

[Caseyfan21]

We have our righthanded hitting leftfielder. Good move, IMO.

Yep, it certainly fills a need. I hate to give up on Homer, I feel like he's the type of player that is a scenery change away from really putting it together, like Phillips was for us. But at the same time, I feel like we have 2 other young pitchers ahead of him and I'm not sure he would even be our 5th starter this year coming north. If Dye puts up stats similar to last year then I think it would help us more than Bailey could, it's 5 years down the road that I worry about.

[Ron Madden]

Well that kind of sucks.

Let's wait to hear the full details of the deal before we praise or condemn.

[LoganBuck]

If they are going to trade for Dye, they may as well sign Furcal. Live for today.

[marcshoe]

Good start. Assuming this is true, I expect Dye to be a significant presence in the middle of the lineup. Let's just hope he's in left, not right.

[OnBaseMachine]

If this is true, Dye should play left field and Bruce should remain in RF.

[Caseyfan21]

If they are going to trade for Dye, they may as well sign Furcal. Live for today.

Shoot, let's just sign Sabathia too then, we can be like the 1997 Marlins here. ;)

[pahster]

If it's straight up, this trade works for me. Bailey may learn to find the strikezone someday, but thanks to the Reds mishandling of him, I don't think they can afford to wait around for him to develop control.

[M2]

I shed no tears for the departure of Homer Bailey. He was going somewhere in a hurry this winter. The deal really is one year of Bailey for one year of Dye.

Dye's the power RH bat so many claimed the Reds need.

Now Jocketty needs to figure out the defense.

And the big question hanging over the franchise: is Chris Dickerson the leadoff hitting CF the Reds require?

[pahster]

If this is true, Dye should play left field and Bruce should remain in RF.

Respect plays right, dude. :p:

[sonny]

If it is straight up, I agree. This is a good move.

[OnBaseMachine]

Respect plays right, dude. :p:

With Dusty as our manager, I'm scared of that.

Now Walt just needs to find a shortstop and a catcher.

[Raisor]

Dye's averaged 606 PA's a year the last three years, and 16.4 RC per 100 PA's.

We're looking at about 100 runs in 2009.

---

This has got to mean that the Reds are going for it in 09, or else why bother?

[Tom Servo]

If it's true and it's straight up, it's a good deal, although one that saddens me. I was drinking the Homer kool-aid in 07 and it's going to be tough to see him move on and potentially thrive elsewhere.

[kpresidente]

Well, Dye is the guy I wanted. Just didn't want to give them Bailey.

Hopefully this doesn't mean Beltre is a lost cause now.

[Raisor]

Hopefully this doesn't mean Beltre is a lost cause now.

I haven't read anywhere that Beltre has been abvailable this offseason.

[Team Clark]

I am ok with it. Homer may come around with the help of Don Cooper. Could be good for each team.

[edabbs44]

Interesting...hopefully this move isn't Cordero-like where nothing else happens. The team just got better in 2009, but is it enough?

I would like the deal a lot more if Dye was a bit younger.

[Caveat Emperor]

If this move was made two years ago, the Reds might've really fleeced someone. As it is, they got a 1-year rental of a guy who projects to be on the decline.

I'm not a fan of this move. While I don't think Bailey will ever reach the potential he was originally believed to have, I'm also not a fan of 35 year old outfielders either.

I guess it's a fitting end for the Homer Bailey story: from untouchable phenom to dealt for a 35-year old spare part.

[Ron Madden]

If it's straight up, this trade works for me. Bailey may learn to find the strikezone someday, but thanks to the Reds mishandling of him, I don't think they can afford to wait around for him to develop control.


I agree, If it's Bailey straight up for Dye I can live with it. ;)

The deal wouldn't look as good if other prospects are headed to Chicago along with Homer.

[M2]

I filled my pockets now I might as well - Dye!
Cause I found the backdoor out of teenage hell - all right!
Filed my account cause I might in fact - Dye!
But I rely on science, yeah to bring me back - all right.
I.....'m gonna Dye....
Heavy morals seem so light but when it comes to cash I'm gonna Dye all right!

[jesusfan]

I'm all for it! Our line-up just got a lot stronger!

1. Dickerson
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Dye
5. Bruce
6. EE
7. Gonzo/Kepp
8. Hanigan

[Raisor]

http://bb.wynnear.com/pics/curlupdye.jpg

[GAC]

Live and Let Dye.

[Ltlabner]

His numbers from the past few years.


YEAR NAME AGE POS PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
2008 Jermaine Dye 34 rf 645 .293 .344 .541 37.7 44.6 13.4
2007 Jermaine Dye 33 rf 561 .262 .317 .486 12.2 18.8 -6.9
2006 Jermaine Dye 32 rf 611 .385 .622 64.6

His numbers from 2008 if magically inserted into the Reds lineup.


YEAR NAME AGE POS PA EqA OBP SLG VORP RAR RAP
2008 Jermaine Dye 34 rf 645 .293 .344 .541 37.7 44.6 13.4
2008 Joey Votto 24 1b 589 .291 .368 .506 35.3 38.5 5.9
2008 Jerry Hairston 32 ss 297 .298 .384 .487 27.7 21.8 11.2
2008 E Encarnacion 25 3b 582 .273 .340 .466 21.3 26.3 1.8
2008 B Phillips 27 2b 609 .257 .312 .442 16.4 17.2 -5.4
2008 Jay Bruce 21 rf 452 .255 .314 .453 5.4 11.9 -10.0

[dougdirt]

The Reds better really hope that whoever steps up and takes the #5 role pitches like a #3. I really think that when June rolls around Bailey is going to be turning some serious heads in the AL Central for the White Sox.

[Raisor]

The Reds better really hope that whoever steps up and takes the #5 role pitches like a #3. I really think that when June rolls around Bailey is going to be turning some serious heads in the AL Central for the White Sox.

Didn't you say that last offseason? (except for the AL part?)

:thumbup:

[guttle11]

First impression: Don't hate it, not sure I like it either. Kind of "meh". I'd like it a lot better if we were an AL team.

[Caveat Emperor]

Acquiring a veteran outfielder worked once for Walt in his last gig.

Problem is, Jim Edmonds was 5 years younger and a better player at every point in his career than Dye.

[Raisor]

For those of you that put a lot of stock in numbers w/RISP.

Dye has OPSed over 800 w/RISP exactly twice in his career.

[M2]

Didn't you say that last offseason? (except for the AL part?)

This time for sure.

Nothing up my sleeve.

Presto!

http://blogs.zdnet.com/open-source/images/bullwinkle_magic-hat.jpg

[Raisor]

This time for sure.

Nothing up my sleeve.

Presto!



"No doubt about it, I've gotta get another hat"

[corkedbat]

Jay Bruce
Jermaine Dye
Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion

That's a great 3-6.

3-7

Jermaine Dye
Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion
Jay Bruce
Brandon Phiillips

Let Bruce and Phillips improve their approach at the plate and ern their way up the order. Of course, that would mean with Hanigan in the 8-hole and Dickerson/Freel prolly leading off, Walt would have to find a SS capable of hitting at the top of the oreder - Furcal?

[AmarilloRed]

Don't expect this move to upgrade the defense. Dye's Plus-Minus rating from 2006-2008 is -72, the worst at the RF position. Too bad the NL doesn't have a DH position.

[Ltlabner]

From BP 2007 write up on JD -


What is true, however, is that Dye is a fine athlete who keeps himself in suburb physical condition. That helps to explain not only his recovery from the injury, but also the late peak he`s experienced. Dye is also a good defensive player, making up for diminishing lateral range with hustle, good route selection, and a plus arm. Okay, we have a little bit of a man-crush on Jermaine Dye

[flyer85]

don't much care for giving up Bailey for a 35 year old expensive OF who is subpar defensively. At his age a repeat of his 2007 is more likely than his 2008 season.

[Caveat Emperor]

Don't expect this move to upgrade the defense. Dye's Plus-Minus rating from 2006-2008 is -72, the worst at the RF position. Too bad the NL doesn't have a DH position.

He'll undoubtedly play LF in Cincinnati -- which should hide a few of his defensive deficiencies. I don't know if I'd consider him an upgrade from Dunn there, though.

[jesusfan]

So... Could the Reds possibly pick up Jeremy Hermida also? Hermida in left, Bruce in Center, Dye in Right.... Now that's an improved offense!

[flyer85]

He'll undoubtedly play LF in Cincinnati -- which should hide a few of his defensive deficiencies. I don't know if I'd consider him an upgrade from Dunn there, though.Dye has lost all of his speed. He is extremely slow, Jr type speed.

[Raisor]

Question is, where does he bat in the lineup?

Phillips has the cleanup spot (remember, Dusty says that it's his), which would put Dye in the 3 or 5 slot, but Dusty likes to break up LRLR, which would put Dye in the 2 or 6 slot.

[MWM]

This is vintage Jocketty. Losing homer doesn't bother me at all. If he does turn the corner, it was never going to happen in the Cincy organization.

I'd like to see a little cash come back though.

[M2]

Question is, where does he bat in the lineup?

Phillips has the cleanup spot (remember, Dusty says that it's his), which would put Dye in the 3 or 5 slot, but Dusty likes to break up LRLR, which would put Dye in the 2 or 6 slot.

Dye's hitting cleanup. Write it in stone. Phillips just became the #2 hitter ... which might be good for him in the pitch taking department.

[AmarilloRed]

I just checked on the 2010 option. The option is mutual, with a 1 million dollar buyout.

[Cyclone792]

Question is, where does he bat in the lineup?

Phillips has the cleanup spot (remember, Dusty says that it's his), which would put Dye in the 3 or 5 slot, but Dusty likes to break up LRLR, which would put Dye in the 2 or 6 slot.

I have no doubt the lineup will remain screwed up. We should probably make two lineups ... what needs to happen and what will happen. I can almost bet the "needs to happen" lineup will trump the "will happen" lineup.

I'd love it if Dye pushed Phillips to the 6th slot, but I don't expect it to happen. Phillips will be making outs and destroying rallies at some spot early or in the middle of the lineup.

[Raisor]

Dye's hitting cleanup. Write it in stone. Phillips just became the #2 hitter.

I'd like to think that's the case, but Dusty seems to not be that guy.

I'm not sure if Dye's senority in the league will trump Phillips' couple of seasons in the cleanup slot for the Reds.

[Big Klu]

Jay Bruce
Jermaine Dye
Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion

That's a great 3-6.


I would prefer Votto hitting third, and Bruce hitting fifth.

[Joseph]

This is vintage Jocketty. Losing homer doesn't bother me at all. If he does turn the corner, it was never going to happen in the Cincy organization.

I'd like to see a little cash come back though.

I think thats how I feel too.

I think Bailey will be good, but I'm not sure he would have done it here.

[dougdirt]

Didn't you say that last offseason? (except for the AL part?)

:thumbup:
Possibly, probably.... doesn't change how I feel still. His new slider is filthy and when matched with his 4 seamer, he is going to own some people.

[Rounding Third]

Dye's hitting cleanup. Write it in stone. Phillips just became the #2 hitter ... which might be good for him in the pitch taking department.

If Phillips is hitting #2 then is he now playing SS for this year?

[corkedbat]

I'd like to see a little cash come back though.

Or see Freel's contract headed the other way

[Cyclone792]

I'll take a stab at a lineup I'd love to see that'd make too much damn sense:

CF Dickerson/Freel platoon
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF Dye
1B Votto
2B Phillips
C Hanigan
SS Gonzalez
Pitcher's spot

Or when Micah Owings starts:

CF Dickerson/Freel platoon
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF Dye
1B Votto
2B Phillips
P Owings
C Hanigan
SS Gonzalez

The end result is Encarnacion takes walks, has a pretty nice on-base percentage, hits doubles, and frankly ... would look very nice hitting 2nd, IMO. Certainly much better than Mr. Swing at Everything.

[Caveat Emperor]

This is vintage Jocketty. Losing homer doesn't bother me at all. If he does turn the corner, it was never going to happen in the Cincy organization.

I'd like to see a little cash come back though.

I don't mind trading Bailey.

I mind getting 35 year old outfielders.

I have to think there are other options out there. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but if Jermaine Dye is the best the team can do, then you can write 2009 off right about now.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I like the Dye move. I like it even more if there is more to come. I could see the Reds tossing in a prospect with Bailey if the White Sox add cash which would be reason for waiting till this week to announce it (any money involved in deals has to be passed by Bud Selig).

Would Dye switch to RF having Bruce go to LF? Regardless the Reds have a better line-up now.

Dickerson/Freel
Gonzalez/Keppinger
Joey Votto
Jermaine Dye
Jay Bruce
Edwin Encarnacion
Phillips
Hanigan
Owings

[*BaseClogger*]

don't much care for giving up Bailey for a 35 year old expensive OF who is subpar defensively. At his age a repeat of his 2007 is more likely than his 2008 season.

2007 was all about BABIP. If he's worse next year, it'll be because he plain got old on us...

[RedLegSuperStar]

I'll take a stab at a lineup I'd love to see that'd make too much damn sense:

CF Dickerson/Freel platoon
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF Dye
1B Votto
2B Phillips
C Hanigan
SS Gonzalez
Pitcher's spot

Or when Micah Owings starts:

CF Dickerson/Freel platoon
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF Dye
1B Votto
2B Phillips
P Owings
C Hanigan
SS Gonzalez

The end result is Encarnacion takes walks, has a pretty nice on-base percentage, hits doubles, and frankly ... would look very nice hitting 2nd, IMO. Certainly much better than Mr. Swing at Everything.

I like your lineups better

[Ron Madden]

Or see Freel's contract headed the other way

Now that would tilt this deal in the Reds favor. :beerme:

:)

[corkedbat]

Question is, where does he bat in the lineup?

Phillips has the cleanup spot (remember, Dusty says that it's his), which would put Dye in the 3 or 5 slot, but Dusty likes to break up LRLR, which would put Dye in the 2 or 6 slot.

Nope. Have you forgotten. The two hole in dudty's lineup will be Gonzalez, Kepp or Janish - they're SSs! :D

[Falls City Beer]

Jay Bruce
Jermaine Dye
Joey Votto
Edwin Encarnacion

That's a great 3-6.

Yep. Just like that the offense and defense look a whole bunch better in the outfield (at least).

Nice job, Walt.

[Falls City Beer]

I'll take a stab at a lineup I'd love to see that'd make too much damn sense:

CF Dickerson/Freel platoon
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF Dye
1B Votto
2B Phillips
C Hanigan
SS Gonzalez
Pitcher's spot

Or when Micah Owings starts:

CF Dickerson/Freel platoon
3B Encarnacion
RF Bruce
LF Dye
1B Votto
2B Phillips
P Owings
C Hanigan
SS Gonzalez

The end result is Encarnacion takes walks, has a pretty nice on-base percentage, hits doubles, and frankly ... would look very nice hitting 2nd, IMO. Certainly much better than Mr. Swing at Everything.

I like your takes, though I'd be alright with Bruce leading off too.

[Degenerate39]

Live and Let Dye.

Live free or Dye Hard

[M2]

My main thing about this trade is the Reds had better not act like this comes close to fixing the team.

The Reds were 12th in the NL in scoring (13th in OB, 10th in SLG), last in DER and 13th in ERA.

Even if Dye steps in and has a big year, the club needs so much more.

[Falls City Beer]

I don't know if I'd consider him an upgrade from Dunn there, though.

I would. And I didn't think Dunn was all that bad in LF.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Live free or Dye Hard

Reds: Do or Dye?
Reds cashing in chips at the Winter Meetings

[Falls City Beer]

My main thing about this trade is the Reds had better not act like this comes close to fixing the team.

The Reds were 12th in the NL in scoring (13th in OB, 10th in SLG), last in DER and 13th in ERA.

Even if Dye steps in and has a big year, the club needs so much more.

True. I doubt Walt has such delusions.

[Caveat Emperor]

My main thing about this trade is the Reds had better not act like this comes close to fixing the team.

Thing is...

Did this make the team better, or did this just begin to bring the team BACK to where it was at the start of 2008 (pre-Dunn trade)?

[jojo]

He'll undoubtedly play LF in Cincinnati -- which should hide a few of his defensive deficiencies. I don't know if I'd consider him an upgrade from Dunn there, though.

He's a downgrade from Dunn but a huge upgrade over not having a left fielder.

[flyer85]

He's a downgrade from Dunn but a huge upgrade over not having a left fielder.this team is so OBP challenged I am not sure he will get a ton of opportunities to drive people in.

[dougdirt]

Thing is...

Did this make the team better, or did this just begin to bring the team BACK to where it was at the start of 2008 (pre-Dunn trade)?

Doubtful, but not because of Dye or Dunn.... but because of no Bako or Patterson.

[Falls City Beer]

Thing is...

Did this make the team better, or did this just begin to bring the team BACK to where it was at the start of 2008 (pre-Dunn trade)?

Getting rid of Junior and replacing him with Bruce + replacing Dunn with Dye comes awfully close to fixing a lot of what was "lost" offensively and certainly defensively. Now get a SS, an ace, and two groundball relievers and we're onto something.

[Raisor]

Thing is...

Did this make the team better, or did this just begin to bring the team BACK to where it was at the start of 2008 (pre-Dunn trade)?

He won't be as good offensivly as Dunn, but Bruce should be better and (hopefully) no Patterson.

(I won't be convinced that Patterson isn't coming back until he signs with another team)

[Cyclone792]

My main thing about this trade is the Reds had better not act like this comes close to fixing the team.

The Reds were 12th in the NL in scoring (13th in OB, 10th in SLG), last in DER and 13th in ERA.

Even if Dye steps in and has a big year, the club needs so much more.

Oh I agree. I'd love having an actual shortstop that isn't a liability. If Jeff Keppinger picks up a glove and heads out to shortstop even for one inning next season, I'll gouge my eyes out. And the bullpen needs more legitimate beefing up, no question there. Bringing Weathers back does not qualify there.

None of this even addresses an item that absolutely murdered this team last year, which was the bench. We need a backup catcher that doesn't blow (I'm fine with Hanigan starting, but he'll need a caddy). I guess if Micah Owings is available to pinch hit on days he isn't pitching, that helps a little bit. But this team needs some bench players that aren't a complete joke. Guys need days off, and we can't afford to wave a white flag with an awful bench when the starters get a rest. Not to mention bad bats off the bench in the late innings didn't do us any favors either.

[flyer85]

on the lineups, Votto should bat 3rd, he is far and away the best OBP guy the Reds have. Bruce is seriously OBP deficient at this point.

[jojo]

this team is so OBP challenged I am not sure he will get a ton of opportunities to drive people in.

Unfortunately Dye doesn't help either the OBP or the defense.

[RedLegSuperStar]

Getting rid of Junior and replacing him with Bruce + replacing Dunn with Dye comes awfully close to fixing a lot of what was "lost" offensively and certainly defensively. Now get a SS, an ace, two groundball relievers, and a cure for cancer and we're onto something.

Fixed for you.. ;)

[Falls City Beer]

on the lineups, Votto should bat 3rd, he is far and away the best OBP guy the Reds have. Bruce is seriously OBP deficient at this point.

Bruce will be fine in the OB department.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm on board with this move -- a solid RH bat between Votto and Bruce was this team's biggest need, in my opinion. Dye's a pro, Homer is still learning. The bridge to Frazier/Alonso is built, and when Dye leaves there will be a draft pick or two coming back. I don't share dougdirt's optimism about Bailey -- if he blossoms, it will be sometime after 2009.

[Raisor]

You know, somehow I forgot to look at Dye's career numbers.
.276 .338 .491 .829

.338 OBP.

oh boy

[Falls City Beer]

Unfortunately Dye doesn't help either the OBP or the defense.

My guess is Dye was brought in to replace the severe power deficit that was created when Dunn was traded. I'm worried about SLG as much as the OB on this team.

[*BaseClogger*]

If Jeff Keppinger picks up a glove and heads out to shortstop even for one inning next season, I'll gouge my eyes out.

Hopefully that's hyperbole. I'd be fine with Keppinger getting spot playing time at shortstop against LHP...

[PuffyPig]

If this move was made two years ago, the Reds might've really fleeced someone. As it is, they got a 1-year rental of a guy who projects to be on the decline.



I believe the option is mutual, either can exercise it.

If both need to exercise it, it's really nothing.

[corkedbat]

Live free or Dye Hard

Let's all drink up Chuck and Dye

[flyer85]

Unfortunately Dye doesn't help either the OBP or the defense.Yep, he does nothing to either of those major problems. he really does nothing to fix any of their major problems.

[Cyclone792]

By the way, on the move itself, I'm pretty giddy about it. So long as there isn't a not-yet-mentioned high caliber extra piece walking out the door with Bailey, I've got a feeling we're moving in the right direction.

But as M2, FCB and others have noted, this is only the very beginning. Lots of work still to be done here with this roster.

[Cyclone792]

Hopefully that's hyperbole. I'd be fine with Keppinger getting spot playing time at shortstop against LHP...

He can pinch hit for the shortstop all he wants so long as Janish walks out to the field the following inning.

[cincrazy]

Question: Is Jermaine Dye the 2008 version of Greg Vaughn? That would be nice.

[Caveat Emperor]

By the way, on the move itself, I'm pretty giddy about it. So long as there isn't a not-yet-mentioned high caliber extra piece walking out the door with Bailey, I've got a feeling we're moving in the right direction.

Not directed at you in particular, but what is there to be giddy about? Dye's a good, not great, player who is at the age where production generally decreases. His defense is average at best. He has good, not great, OBA skills.

What am I missing here?

[Raisor]

Question: Is Jermaine Dye the 2008 version of Greg Vaughn? That would be nice.

Greg Vaughn had a .245 BA his year in Cincy.

Just sayin.

[AmarilloRed]

If Dye doesn't work out there is a 1 million buyout for the option year. If he does, we can exercise the option for 2010. It gives us some time to get help from the minors.

[*BaseClogger*]

He can pinch hit for the shortstop all he wants so long as Janish walks out to the field the following inning.

If there's an injury with our starter--whoever that ends up being--you wouldn't be ok with a platoon of Keppinger at short? He's not league average, but his total package isn't replacement level either--it's somewhere in-between. He wouldn't be the parasite that Corey Patterson was...

[paintmered]

Greg Vaughn had a .245 BA his year in Cincy.

Just sayin.

Yeah, but he played the game the right way and Marty loved him.

[guttle11]

Not directed at you in particular, but what is there to be giddy about? Dye's a good, not great, player who is at the age where production generally decreases. His defense is average at best. He has good, not great, OBA skills.

What am I missing here?

He's perhaps the best LF/RH option the Reds had?

We're only locked into him for two years at the most?

They (presumably) didn't give up anything farm shattering to get him?

Phillips won't be hitting 4th?

[cincrazy]

Greg Vaughn had a .245 BA his year in Cincy.

Just sayin.

Correct, but he also hit 45 home runs and drove in 118.

[flyer85]

Not directed at you in particular, but what is there to be giddy about? Dye's a good, not great, player who is at the age where production generally decreases. His defense is average at best. He has good, not great, OBA skills.

What am I missing here?nothing. Would be a nice deal if he was one of the final pieces of the puzzle. However, this team has severe OBP issues so unless the starting pitching takes a huge step forward this team is a long way from being a playoff contender.

[jojo]

Not directed at you in particular, but what is there to be giddy about? Dye's a good, not great, player who is at the age where production generally decreases. His defense is average at best. He has good, not great, OBA skills.

What am I missing here?

Assuming the Dye trade actually does happen, they would at least have a league average LFer which is something they wouldn't have without either a trade or a free agent signing. That's basically what they've accomplished. Giddy? It doesn't make me especially giddy but it's better than a season of Hopper.

[Raisor]

Phillips won't be hitting 4th?

I think the jury is still out on that one.

[Raisor]

Correct, but he also hit 45 home runs and drove in 118.

Wait, that sounds familiar.....

[corkedbat]

If this deal goes through - Hi/Lo on additional deals (Trades or FA signngs) the rest of the week? The number is 3 1/2

I'll take the over. I think they will be that active and if they aren't I don't think it will be for a lack of trying

[Cyclone792]

Not directed at you in particular, but what is there to be giddy about? Dye's a good, not great, player who is at the age where production generally decreases. His defense is average at best. He has good, not great, OBA skills.

What am I missing here?

What you're missing is that I didn't particularly care too much about Homer Bailey, because I wasn't expecting great things out of Homer Bailey. He's not a piece that I'm going to miss.

Barring an unforeseen improvement in control and injuries in the Reds' rotation simultaneously occurring (the latter will occur, the former probably not), I didn't see Bailey contributing a whole lot next season. I'm honestly not sure if Bailey had anymore trade value than Dye; in fact, part of me is surprised that Bailey was able to land Dye.

The Reds needed a decent corner outfield stopgap until the next wave of kids fly into town, and Dye will provide that. The building block into a perennial contender will take a series of steps, and this is just one step in that block ... a block that I didn't see Homer Bailey contributing any steps toward.

[AmarilloRed]

Dye's only played 27 games at LF in his major league career. I hope the transition will be a smooth one.

[cincrazy]

Wait, that sounds familiar.....

The mourning period is over with in regards to Dunn :p:

[Raisor]

Rumor has it the Braves were interested in Dye too. I'm going to pull a Krusty and propose that the Reds turn around and trade Dye for Escobar.

I'd do it in a second.

[Degenerate39]

Dye's averaged 606 PA's a year the last three years, and 16.4 RC per 100 PA's.

We're looking at about 100 runs in 2009.

---

This has got to mean that the Reds are going for it in 09, or else why bother?

I'm glad we finally have a left fielder who can get 100 runs

[flyer85]

Kenny Wiliams has cleaned up of late by taking teams prospects who hadn't fulfilled their potential(Danks, Floyd, Jenks).

[edabbs44]

Greg Vaughn had a .245 BA his year in Cincy.

Just sayin.

But he was BABIP unlucky.

Dunn isn't coming back, so I think everyone needs to turn the page.

[jojo]

Rumor has it the Braves were interested in Dye too. I'm going to pull a Krusty and propose that the Reds turn around and trade Dye for Escobar.

I'd do it in a second.

Oh god yes, that would be a shellacking.

[Ron Madden]

Rumor has it the Braves were interested in Dye too. I'm going to pull a Krusty and propose that the Reds turn around and trade Dye for Escobar.

I'd do it in a second.

So would I.

:)

[Falls City Beer]

Kenny Wiliams has cleaned up of late by taking teams prospects who hadn't fulfilled their potential(Danks, Floyd, Jenks).

His luck has run out with Bailey. The guy's got nothing. Barring an injury, I see no reason to continue experimenting with a guy whose best stuff tops out at 90, no movement, and no control.

[Raisor]

Oh god yes, that would be a shellacking.

That's all we need to get a trade done, right? Two of us agreeing?

I'm sending the paperwork into Selig.

[Cedric]

Slugging has become Rodney Dangerfield on this message board. Jocketty isn't dumb. Geting someone who can hit the ball from the right side was the main goal of the offseason.

[JaxRed]

I'm officially on record now as opposing this deal. The only way the Reds can compete is by having their minor leaguers turn into inexpensive big leaguers (and a few of them stars). Trading away potential stars for aging OF's is not the way to do it.

[cincrazy]

Rumor has it the Braves were interested in Dye too. I'm going to pull a Krusty and propose that the Reds turn around and trade Dye for Escobar.

I'd do it in a second.

Completely agree. I love Escobar

[Cedric]

Potential stars have to have potential right? Homer has nothing but a first round value by his name. He's a BP arm at best and with his attitude that isn't likely.

[jojo]

That's all we need to get a trade done, right? Two of us agreeing?

I'm sending the paperwork into Selig.

Make sure to mention your nobel prizes just in case he's not aware of them. Selig strikes me as someone who might not be.

[flyer85]

His luck has run out with Bailey. The guy's got nothing. Barring an injury, I see no reason to continue experimenting with a guy whose best stuff tops out at 90, no movement, and no control.that's what they were saying about Floyd two years ago.

Dye would be a nice fit on a team that some high OBP guys but lacked SLG. The Reds are just the opposite they have some decent slugging OBP challenged hitters in EE, BP and JB

[AmarilloRed]

Has anyone seen this:


White Sox shoot down trade rumors about Dye, Jenks

By Mark Gonzales | Tribune staff reporter
8:51 PM CST, December 7, 2008

LAS VEGAS - While the White Sox awaited word on whether free-agent Orlando Cabrera would decline their salary arbitration offer, two trade scenarios were shot down Sunday night on the eve of the winter meetings.

A source familiar with the talks rejected a report in the Dayton Daily News quoting a "major-league source close to the situation" that a deal to send Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye to Cincinnati for pitcher Homer Bailey "was done and would be announced this week."

The source said the Reds were reluctant to take on Dye's $11.5 million salary even though they need a right-handed hitter of his caliber. The source added that the Sox were seeking more prospects besides Bailey, who was 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in eight starts and was 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA at Triple-A Louisville.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-081207-chicago-white-sox-winter-meetings,0,7672373.story

It looks like the trade might not be a done deal, after all.

[dougdirt]

His luck has run out with Bailey. The guy's got nothing. Barring an injury, I see no reason to continue experimenting with a guy whose best stuff tops out at 90, no movement, and no control.

You are severely misinformed on Homer Baileys stuff.

[Tom Servo]

Let's all drink up Chuck and Dye
Dye Another Day

[Raisor]

Make sure to mention your nobel prizes just in case he's not aware of them. Selig strikes me as someone who might not be.

I use them to get reservations at resturants all the time.

[Caveat Emperor]

The Reds needed a decent corner outfield stopgap until the next wave of kids fly into town, and Dye will provide that. The building block into a perennial contender will take a series of steps, and this is just one step in that block ... a block that I didn't see Homer Bailey contributing any steps toward.

Trouble is, there isn't a next wave of power-hitting outfielders on the way. There's noodle-stick Drew Stubbs and a lot of "eh..."

I'd rather see Bailey either traded for younger minor leaguers and/or packaged together to trade for legitimate big league talent that can help build the franchise instead of bridging 2009.

[Falls City Beer]

that's what they were saying about Floyd two years ago.

Dye would be a nice fit on a team that some high OBP guys but lacked SLG. The Reds are just the opposite they have some decent slugging OBP challenged hitters in EE, BP and JB

Phillips and EdE are good SLGing hitters? I'd say they benefit from their home field.

[Raisor]

Has anyone seen this:



http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-081207-chicago-white-sox-winter-meetings,0,7672373.story

It looks like the trade might not be a done deal, after all.



ummm.

Nevermind?

[JaxRed]

And they want MORE prospects? They have dreams of Herschel Walker dancing in their heads....

[Cyclone792]

Trouble is, there isn't a next wave of power-hitting outfielders on the way. There's noodle-stick Drew Stubbs and a lot of "eh..."

I'd rather see Bailey either traded for younger minor leaguers and/or packaged together to trade for legitimate big league talent that can help build the franchise instead of bridging 2009.

I don't think Homer Bailey had the type of trade value to bring in the type of haul you're describing that would have made people happy.

As for the next wave, I fully expect Votto to be breaking in a left fielder's mitt no later than spring training 2011, perhaps even spring training 2010, because Alonso will force the Reds' hand. That's why a one or two year stopgap outfielder who is decent right now isn't a bad thing, especially if the Reds could play their cards right and snap up a compensation pick or two when cutting Dye loose.

[flyer85]

Phillips and EdE are good SLGing hitters? I'd say they benefit from their home field.could say that about Dye is well, the White Sox home park is even better than GABP.

[Benihana]

Not sure of which report is true, but word out of Chicago is that the Sox are very interested in Bailey as a closer in the long run.

[Sabo Fan]

I'll wait for some type of official confirmation beyond Hal before I really get to thinking about this move, but my initial reaction is that this is a deal you make only after you've added some other pieces. For this team that would be first and foremost a SS and a C. Seems to me like bringing Dye aboard is something you would do only if you were looking to get a bat to put you over the top, mainly because he's not a guy who has a long shelf life and strikes me as being a one year rental. Maybe Walt likes to work backwards, but you could have picked up a couple guys to fill your LF spot (Rivera, Hermida, he who shall not be named) at less expense of talent and possibly dollars. I'm not against it because I don't think Homer has a terribly bright future, but I think this is a move you make when you've secured a couple other important parts and are reasonably sure you have the talent to make a legitimate run.

[Falls City Beer]

could say that about Dye is well, the White Sox home park is even better than GABP.

Pretty similar parks; GAB better in the dinger department though. I don't know, though, Dye SLG .560 last season. Whatever, we can all go back to delighting in still having uber-arm Bailey now that it appears there hasn't been a deal struck, at least for the time being.

[flyer85]

BTW, last year Dye OPSed 990+ at home and 780 on the road. I'd have serious concerns about how much his home park inflates his stats.

[OnBaseMachine]

Bruce will be fine in the OB department.

Yep. People seem to forget he's only 21 years old.

[SteelSD]

I believe the option is mutual, either can exercise it.

If both need to exercise it, it's really nothing.

My understanding is that both parties must exercise the mutual option to put the final year of the contract into effect. Otherwise there wouldn't be much of a reason for a buyout clause.

[REDREAD]

The deal really is one year of Bailey for one year of Dye.


Excellent point. Homer was likely to bounce up and down to the minors in 2009, burning his last option year. He's clearly been pushed off the depth chart. Makes a lot of sense to trade him while he still has value.

I wish him the best. Maybe he'll thrive better in Chicago.

IMO, Wayne did a huge disservice to the Reds and Homer by rushing him up. Another case of throwing a young pitcher that was clearly not ready into the fire. The fact the Reds did so much tinkering with Homer after the callup proves they felt he wasn't ML ready and just called him up out of desperation.

[M2]

Assuming the Dye trade actually does happen, they would at least have a league average LFer which is something they wouldn't have without either a trade or a free agent signing. That's basically what they've accomplished. Giddy? It doesn't make me especially giddy but it's better than a season of Hopper.

It would be a step in the right direction. Now just two more positions to drag up to league average (or three or four dependent upon your perspective).

[Raisor]

Who else can we not trade tonight?

[jojo]

I'll wait for some type of official confirmation beyond Hal before I really get to thinking about this move, but my initial reaction is that this is a deal you make only after you've added some other pieces. For this team that would be first and foremost a SS and a C. Seems to me like bringing Dye aboard is something you would do only if you were looking to get a bat to put you over the top, mainly because he's not a guy who has a long shelf life and strikes me as being a one year rental. Maybe Walt likes to work backwards, but you could have picked up a couple guys to fill your LF spot (Rivera, Hermida, he who shall not be named) at less expense of talent and possibly dollars. I'm not against it because I don't think Homer has a terribly bright future, but I think this is a move you make when you've secured a couple other important parts and are reasonably sure you have the talent to make a legitimate run.

Ya. We could debate the trade value of Homer until the thread reached it's max I guess. But when 3 needs are at premium positions, one might start out by using whatever chips that are available to check one of those things off of the list. A problem in left field should be one of the easiest things to fix.

It's just an interesting glimpse into Jocketty's potential thoughts this off season. Would he even agree with the above characterization of their needs?

[Raisor]

If this trade doesn't go through it's really going to ruin my (fake) trade for Escobar.

[sonny]

I think this deal is dead, personally

[Sabo Fan]

If this trade doesn't go through it's really going to ruin my (fake) trade for Escobar.

As far as fake trades go it was one of the better ones I can remember. You'd make a great fake GM.

[blumj]

If this trade doesn't go through it's really going to ruin my (fake) trade for Escobar.
I'm sure the Reds and the White Sox will take your fake trades into account before they decide.

[jojo]

If this trade doesn't go through it's really going to ruin my (fake) trade for Escobar.

I say you trade Dye to Atlanta for Escobar irregardless of whether the Reds get Dye..... Leverage those nobel prizes. :cool:

[Raisor]

As far as fake trades go it was one of the better ones I can remember. You'd make a great fake GM.

I really get bogged down in (fake) contract negotiations.

I'd be a terrific (fake) assistant GM though.

[Raisor]

I say you trade Dye to Atlanta for Escobar irregardless of whether the Reds get Dye..... Leverage those nobel prizes. :cool:

heck, I already pretended to fax in the paper work.

[Tom Servo]

10 fake pages on Redszone for a fake trade?

[M2]

10 fake pages on Redszone for a fake trade?

We're just getting started.

[corkedbat]

I guess we could wait on Homer a while longer, but then I'm still waiting on that killer. can't miss rotation of:

Wayne Simpson
Pat Zachry
Jack Armstrong
Bruce Berenyi
Brett Tomko

:D

[Raisor]

This has just been a simulation. You may go about your business.

[Sabo Fan]

10 fake pages on Redszone for a fake trade?

At this point I think we should attempt to will this trade to fruition just so we can see what the power of Redszone actually is. If we discuss it enough and act like it happened then it did, right?

[jojo]

At this point I think we should attempt to will this trade to fruition just so we can see what the power of Redszone actually is. If we discuss it enough and act like it happened then it did, right?

If that's the plan, can we trade Homer for Pujols instead?

[Sabo Fan]

If that's the plan, can we trade Homer for Pujols instead?

Raisor already has the fake paperwork written up.

[corkedbat]

10 fake pages on Redszone for a fake trade?

Now there will be 10 pages of how bad we suck because we can't get the deall done. :D

Persoinally though, I think the ChiSox fake denial of the fake deal is a sure sign that it's been completed

[Raisor]

At this point I think we should attempt to will this trade to fruition just so we can see what the power of Redszone actually is. If we discuss it enough and act like it happened then it did, right?


The Redszone 10 do have the power to make a trade go through. If we choose.

[Raisor]

Raisor already has the fake paperwork written up.

I can get out the (fake) whiteout.

No one will notice.

[SteelSD]

The Redszone 10 do have the power to make a trade go through. If we choose.

Heck, the "10" got O'Brien and Krivsky fired so a simple player trade is not beyond ou...um...their power.

Dude, the first rule of fight club is that you do not talk about fight club...

[redsfan4445]

per this:

Bailey-Dye Trade Report Shot Down
By Tim Dierkes [December 7 at 9:32pm CST]

9:32pm: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick adds that Dye and his agent "haven't heard a word" about a trade.

8:51pm: Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune says "a source familiar with the talks" rejected the report below. The Sox want more than just Bailey. Gonzales' source adds that talks with the Mets for Bobby Jenks fell apart over Omar Minaya's unwillingness to include Bobby Parnell.

[jojo]

The Redszone 10 do have the power to make a trade go through. If we choose.

So how many members are in the Redszone 10?

[Raisor]

So how many members are in the Redszone 10?

I've said too much already.

[Sabo Fan]

So how many members are in the Redszone 10?

I heard there are actually 11, kind of like the Big 10 has 11 teams. That's how sneaky they are.

[M2]

The Redszone 10 do have the power to make a trade go through. If we choose.

Of course it has to be weighed against the thread potential of keeping Homer Bailey. I'm not sure he has the Dunnian ability to dominate threads even months after he's been traded.

[Krusty]

Anybody know Hal McCoy's trade record for accuracy?

[Raisor]

Of course it has to be weighed against the thread potential of keeping Homer Bailey. I'm not sure he has the Dunnian ability to dominate threads even months after he's been traded.

It worked with Kearns/Lopez.

[jojo]

It's a shame that Milton Bradley is such a mambie pambie.

[Blimpie]

Hal will have some splainin' to do in Monday's column....

[corkedbat]

So how many members are in the Redszone 10?



They refuse to confirm which leads some to infer they are just a front for the Tri-Llateral commission, nut that's probably a smoke screen thrownup by the Bilderburgers

[jojo]

Anybody know Hal McCoy's trade record for accuracy?

Nobody knows for sure but his name is Yoccm Lah spelled backwards and a google search for that will get you put on a list maintained by the department of homeland security..

[Raisor]

Fay is reporting that the Reds are reporting that there's no deal.

Fay's blog (go find it yourself, I'm lazy)

[Krusty]

Where there is smoke there usually is a fire.

Something tells me the White Sox and Reds are in serious talks and Hal was little quick in pulling the trigger to the story.

[Raisor]

Here's a list of people also not traded to the Reds tonight.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_from_Ohio

[SteelSD]

Fay is reporting that the Reds are reporting that there's no deal.

Fay's blog (go find it yourself, I'm lazy)

The interesting thing is that I've been waiting for a more reliable source than McCoy to confirm the trade before actually offering an opinion on the trade, yet Fay's "no trade" confirmation has almost the same effect.

[corkedbat]

Fay is reporting that the Reds are reporting that there's no deal.

Fay's blog (go find it yourself, I'm lazy)

More confirmation!!! :beerme:

Welcome Jermaine! Done deal!

[redsfan30]

Where there is smoke there usually is a fire.

Something tells me the White Sox and Reds are in serious talks and Hal was little quick in pulling the trigger to the story.

Agreed. It may not be imminent, but I would not at all be surprised if it winds up happening.

[corkedbat]

Where there is smoke there usually is a fire.

Something tells me the White Sox and Reds are in serious talks and Hal was little quick in pulling the trigger to the story.

Sometimes it's just a mass of smoldering trash too :D

[Wheelhouse]

I'm not saying this didn't happen, but based on Hal's "scoops" the last several years, I'd give it a grain of salt...

[paintmered]

No more sticky until there's additional reporting on this trade actually happening.

[Tom Servo]

It worked with Kearns/Lopez.
I brought the hearsay and rumors of Kearns and Lopez being packaged in a deal to Redszone, I like to blame myself for that one.

[dougdirt]

No more sticky until there's additional reporting on this trade actually happening.

Trickster.

[Big Klu]

I heard there are actually 11, kind of like the Big 10 has 11 teams. That's how sneaky they are.

It would then follow that there are actually infinitely many members in the RedsZone 10 (and the Big 10). Allow me to demonstrate:

It has been established by the Big Ten that 10 + 1 = 10.

Therefore, (10 + 1) + 1 = 10 + 1, which equals 10.

It then follows recursively that infinitely many people are actually members of the RedsZone 10.
(And infinitely many schools are members of the Big Ten.)


Q.E.D.

[Cedric]

I was confused from the beginning by OBM's title. Hal clearly said it was a rumor in the original post.

Found the whole thing odd actually.

[DoogMinAmo]

No more sticky until there's additional reporting on this trade actually happening.

A little late, I already texted all the guys I get season tix with!

This is what happens when you trust the Redszone sticky before reading the thread...

[Raisor]

It would then follow that there are actually infinitely many members in the RedsZone 10 (and the Big 10). Allow me to demonstrate:

It has been established by the Big Ten that 10 + 1 = 10.

Therefore, (10 + 1) + 1 = 10 + 1, which equals 10.

It then follows recursively that infinitely many people are actually members of the RedsZone 10.
(And infinitely many schools are members of the Big Ten.)


Q.E.D.


you've sealed your doom.

Prepare to be assimilated

[OldRightHander]

Channel 19 was still speculating on it about 30 minutes ago.

[dougdirt]

I was confused from the beginning by OBM's title. Hal clearly said it was a rumor in the original post.

Found the whole thing odd actually.

Of course he said there were rumors running rampant, but also quoted a 'Major League Source' as saying its a done deal. While thats a 'rumor' its not quite a rumor in the sense that people are speculating.

[redsfan4445]

this was said by walt

"10:06pm: Walt Jocketty on the report: "Wrong. It's not even close." The Reds haven't had talks with the Sox since before Thanksgiving."

[dougdirt]

this was said by walt

"10:06pm: Walt Jocketty on the report: "Wrong. It's not even close." The Reds haven't had talks with the Sox since before Thanksgiving."

Same Jocketty who said that GM's don't do much business around Thanksgiving with the meetings so close? Sounds more like 'we talked about it but still have stuff to work out'.

[SteelSD]

this was said by walt

"10:06pm: Walt Jocketty on the report: "Wrong. It's not even close." The Reds haven't had talks with the Sox since before Thanksgiving."

I will not believe that until Joe Morgan and Buster Olney both confirm that the trade has actually happened.

[M2]

this was said by walt

"10:06pm: Walt Jocketty on the report: "Wrong. It's not even close." The Reds haven't had talks with the Sox since before Thanksgiving."

"Talks" to GMs is a bit like "is" to Bill Clinton, the meaning of the word isn't as fixed as you might think it is. For instance, note that he didn't say "We haven't talked to the Sox since before Thanksgiving." Instead they "haven't had talks," which opens up the fascinating question of what are "talks" and how does one have them?

[BCubb2003]

"Talks" to GMs is a bit like "is" to Bill Clinton, the meaning of the word isn't as fixed as you might think it is. For instance, note that he didn't say "We haven't talked to the Sox since before Thanksgiving." Instead they "haven't had talks," which opens up the fascinating question of what are "talks" and how does one have them?

Right, M2. It might mean "e-mails were had," on some level ...

[fearofpopvol1]

Who knows if it's true or not.

However, Walt wanted a big bat. I would definitely rather do Bailey for 1 year of Dye over Cueto for 1 year of Holliday, since it seems like Walt was interested in both.

However, will Baker put Dye in LF? I'm a bit concerned that they would stick him in RF, Bruce in CF and Dickerson in LF. That concerns me...again, assume this deal happens.

[Caseyfan21]

It was on the bottom line on Sportscenter, but it also listed Walt's denial right after the report. The anchor also said it at the end of the show.

[M2]

Right, M2. It might mean "e-mails were had," on some level ...

Or even that they've talked numerous times, but for whatever reasons those didn't count as "talks."

In fact, say it a dozen times and "talks" starts to sound like gibberish. Makes you question whether it's even a word.

[reds44]

My head hurts, but I really want this deal to go down. Hopefully it is close.

[redsmetz]

Not to get all "palace intrigue", but is it remotely possible that the Reds may have planted the story to spice up Bailey for elsewhere? Perhaps there's another team that wants Bailey and by rumoring him to the Chisox, the other team may want to move before losing him in this supposed trade. Just a guess on my part.

[camisadelgolf]

I'm not sure if this has been posted yet, but Jocketty said that he hasn't spoken with the White Sox since November.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081207&content_id=3705530&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


Reds deny Bailey-for-Dye trade rumor
General manager Jocketty refutes report from Dayton Daily News
LAS VEGAS -- Trade rumors are a staple of Winter Meetings activity, and the Reds have shot down their first big rumor of the week.

On Sunday night, general manager Walt Jocketty categorically denied a report from the Dayton Daily News that young starter Homer Bailey was traded to the White Sox for outfielder Jermaine Dye. The story cited an anonymous source saying that the deal was done and would be announced by the end of the week.

"Wrong. It's not even close," Jocketty said.

There have been talks between the Reds and White Sox involving Dye, but they are not active.

"We haven't had any discussions with the White Sox since before Thanksgiving," Jocketty said.

The Reds' top priority during the Meetings is to acquire a right-handed hitter and run producer. Dye, who is right-handed, batted .292 with 34 home runs, 96 RBIs and a .344 on-base percentage last season. The 35-year-old will make $11.5 million in 2009 and has a $12 million mutual option for 2010.

Bailey, 22, remains one of the Reds' top pitching prospects despite a rough 2008 season. He was 4-7 with 4.77 ERA in 19 starts at Triple-A Louisville and 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in eight big league starts.

[Heath]

I don't have time to remember the entire thread - but if this trade does happen - has anyone thought that you are flipping Bailey for someone else's A-level prospect if the Reds tank in '09?

[jojo]

Hal McCoy is so Ohio Sports News.

[klw]

Hal McCoy is so Ohio Sports News.

Is Ohio Sports News still going? It was very "informative"

[RedEye]

Did someone mention the possibility that the Reds could get Lillibridge in this deal? If that happened, then I might like it.

[RFS62]

[channeling Edskin] This is the most important fake deal of the offseason [/channeling Edskin]

[RedEye]

I'm wondering if the leak to McCoy was part of WJ's team trying to get leverage in negotiations. If news of a Dye deal is floating in the air, perhaps they can use it to triangulate other possible trade partners for a deal. Bailey's value as an "almost traded" prospect probably goes up because teams see their window closing on being able to acquire him. Right?

[Jpup]

I'm wondering if the leak to McCoy was part of WJ's team trying to get leverage in negotiations. If news of a Dye deal is floating in the air, perhaps they can use it to triangulate other possible trade partners for a deal. Bailey's value as an "almost traded" prospect probably goes up because teams see their window closing on being able to acquire him. Right?

I don't think anyone is clamoring to acquire Homer Bailey and I like the guy.

[wally post]

I don't think anyone is clamoring to acquire Homer Bailey and I like the guy.

I'm with Jpup. He is still young and has ability. It should be the Reds' responsibility to solve whatever is holding him back from being the stud all of baseball thought he was.

[TRF]

I'm officially on record now as opposing this deal. The only way the Reds can compete is by having their minor leaguers turn into inexpensive big leaguers (and a few of them stars). Trading away potential stars for aging OF's is not the way to do it.

seconded. I think Dye would be a huge mistake. He's primed for a big fall.


Trouble is, there isn't a next wave of power-hitting outfielders on the way. There's noodle-stick Drew Stubbs and a lot of "eh..."

I'd rather see Bailey either traded for younger minor leaguers and/or packaged together to trade for legitimate big league talent that can help build the franchise instead of bridging 2009.

Danny Dorn isn't a lot of eh... Neither is Todd Frazier. I think Sean Henry could OPS .850, though I hope he plays a lot of 2B. The OF isn't LOADED per se, but part of that is because Bruce is already in Cincinnati. Dickerson could be a huge surprise.

[RedEye]

Not to get all "palace intrigue", but is it remotely possible that the Reds may have planted the story to spice up Bailey for elsewhere? Perhaps there's another team that wants Bailey and by rumoring him to the Chisox, the other team may want to move before losing him in this supposed trade. Just a guess on my part.

Redsmetz, you were first on this (see my later post). Sorry to repeat the same speculation. Good minds think alike? ;)

[George Anderson]

From what I understand last season Bailey lost like 5 MPH on his fastball. I know this happens often to young pitchers but is it does is it possible for them to regain the velocity they lost? What the little knowledge I have on pitching mechanics I am under the belief he won't regain that velocity so perhaps they need to unload Bailey while he still has some value.

[RedEye]

From what I understand last season Bailey lost like 5 MPH on his fastball. Does this happen often to young pitchers and if it does is it possible for them to regain the velocity they lost? What the little knowledge I have on pitching mechanics I am under the belief he won't regain that velocity so perhaps they need to unload Bailey while he still has some value.

I think I heard a report (from Jocketty?) that he got it back near the end at AAA. His last few starts with Louisville were much improved, I think.

[blumj]

I don't think anyone is clamoring to acquire Homer Bailey and I like the guy.
NYYFans.com is offering Xavier Nady and Wilton Veras. But, that's more fake trades again.

[redsmetz]

Redsmetz, you were first on this (see my later post). Sorry to repeat the same speculation. Good minds think alike? ;)

It's a sad world where I'm grouped with "good minds." LOL

[M2]

No matter how solid Hal's source is, his article might have impact.

I'm guessing most people who heard this report liked the idea. Now people are expecting something. It doesn't have to be Dye, but woe unto the Reds if they do nothing.

The other thing is the report makes it even tougher to keep Bailey. He's already a one-year proposition. If he doesn't click next year, he'll be out of options and have minimal value. He's not in the top five on the rotation depth chart (Owings is in front of him) and his long warmup and slow recovery make him ill-suited to working in the bullpen. So now, on top of all that, Bailey's sitting in the ejector seat. There comes a point where a guy is gone upstairs even if you haven't dealt him. Bailey might be thinking right now, "All right, I'm going to the White Sox and I'll turn things around there." Attached to that is the notion that things aren't going to turn around until the inevitable trade happens.

[paintmered]

It's a sad world where I'm grouped with "good minds." LOL

Don't be offended that your great mind was confused with merely a good one. :p:

[BCubb2003]

Don't be offended that your great mind was confused with merely a good one. :p:


Somewhat above replacement level?

[RedEye]

Don't be offended that your great mind was confused with merely a good one. :p:

Yes, the expression is "great minds think alike." Clearly mine isn't so great early in the morning.

Anyway, I think that Redsmetz's hypothesis has some merit. WJ has proven to be a skillful GM over the years, and I think we're seeing part of why. He can be very strategic in this sort of thing, using leaks to the press and everything he has at his disposal. He plays his cards close to the vest, but he also knows when to change his expression at the table.

[Kc61]

No matter how solid Hal's source is, his article might have impact.

I'm guessing most people who heard this report liked the idea. Now people are expecting something. It doesn't have to be Dye, but woe unto the Reds if they do nothing.

The other thing is the report makes it even tougher to keep Bailey. .


I don't think the report has any impact. Fans expect the Reds to make moves, they know Bailey is a possibility, there's pressure on Walt to make moves with or without this.

If it proves to be incorrect, have to wonder how this got in the paper as a done deal.

[westofyou]

If it proves to be incorrect, have to wonder how this got in the paper as a done deal. Maybe Hal will tell us.. then he can let us know about that free agent signing of Delino DeShields.

[osuceltic]

Maybe Hal will tell us.. then he can let us know about that free agent signing of Delino DeShields.

And the big mistake he made on the GM decision when Krivsky was hired.

I like Hal, appreciate the great work he did on the beat over the years, and really appreciate that he breaks a sweat in trying to report this kind of stuff (whereas Fay usually waits for the official announcement), but these kinds of big mistakes are credibility killers and would get someone fired at many newspapers.

[M2]

I don't think the report has any impact. Fans expect the Reds to make moves, they know Bailey is a possibility, there's pressure on Walt to make moves with or without this.

Most fans don't think about it that much. What they now think is the Reds are close to landing a big bat for a kid pitcher who's been a disaster so far.

They've been watching football for a few months now and are getting into the swing of basketball season and suddenly a glimmer of hope appears with the Reds. They might have gone all winter and never given the Reds a second thought. They might have had no expectations.

Now, if Dye or something similarly exciting doesn't happen, the story will be about how the Reds couldn't get it done again.

Hope is a dangerous thing. For instance, Pirates fans have no hope that their club will do anything to excite them and it will deliver. Reds fans get to be wholly disappointed. They always get lured into thinking that maybe this is finally next year.

[gm]

"Ours is not to question why

Ours is just to do, and Dye"

Won't. Miss. Bailey.

[dougdirt]

From what I understand last season Bailey lost like 5 MPH on his fastball. I know this happens often to young pitchers but is it does is it possible for them to regain the velocity they lost? What the little knowledge I have on pitching mechanics I am under the belief he won't regain that velocity so perhaps they need to unload Bailey while he still has some value.

Not really true at all. Bailey didn't lose his velocity, he just wasn't throwing his 4 seam fastball and people assumed his 89-92 2 seam fastball was his #1 and it wasn't. When he started throwing his 4 seam fastball again he was throwing 93-96 MPH.

[wheels]

Not really true at all. Bailey didn't lose his velocity, he just wasn't throwing his 4 seam fastball and people assumed his 89-92 2 seam fastball was his #1 and it wasn't. When he started throwing his 4 seam fastball again he was throwing 93-96 MPH.

I'm sorry, Doug. I just don't buy that explaination at all.

I think it's admirable that you're sticking to your guns on Bailey, but I'm really starting to think the kid is toast.

Maybe he never had it to begin with, and was just being hyped in CYA mode. I've never seen the purported 96 mph heat, and that curveball he displayed at the Major League level was not awe inspiring to say the least. I don't even want to discuss his control, it's just too painful.

I was more open to the possibility that Homer could put it together until two kids with with real stuff made themselves known in the person(s) of Cueto and Volquez. I look at those guys and the wicked stuff and I think "That's what a pitching prospect looks like....Yow!".

I see Bailey pitch and just have to sigh. It's really sad. I wanted him to make it.

[westofyou]

If Homer is dealt he'll be in the same boat as Bernie Carbo, Kurt Stillwell and Pokey, former first rounders who were hyped and moved as their value plummeted.

[wheels]

Hopefully they'll get as much for Bailey as they did for Stillwell.

[Mainspark]

Hal also had the exclusive "scoop" after the 2001 season that Ron Oester had been hired as manager of the Reds.

[jojo]

According to pitch f/x data, Homer's average fastball velocity was 93 mph last season. I don't think it's likely that he lost 5 mph of velocity.

BTW, no major league starter consistently averages 96 mph on his fastball.

[lollipopcurve]

My guess is that they're haggling over what other prospect the Reds will kick in and how much cash the White Sox will throw in. Wild guess: Drew Stubbs might get the Reds 1-2 million off Dye's contract. Would the Reds sacrifice Stubbs in this deal? My hunch is yes.

[dougdirt]

I'm sorry, Doug. I just don't buy that explaination at all.

I think it's admirable that you're sticking to your guns on Bailey, but I'm really starting to think the kid is toast.

Maybe he never had it to begin with, and was just being hyped in CYA mode. I've never seen the purported 96 mph heat, and that curveball he displayed at the Major League level was not awe inspiring to say the least. I don't even want to discuss his control, it's just too painful.

I was more open to the possibility that Homer could put it together until two kids with with real stuff made themselves known in the person(s) of Cueto and Volquez. I look at those guys and the wicked stuff and I think "That's what a pitching prospect looks like....Yow!".

I see Bailey pitch and just have to sigh. It's really sad. I wanted him to make it.

Go here (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/multimedia/video.jsp) and then choose September 4, then choose the Louisville/Durham game. Watch Bailey pitch. He was sitting 93-95 MPH and was hitting 96 MPH in the 6th inning according to scouts at the game.

As for his curveball, it still flashes itself as a very good pitch but he just cant locate it with any kind of consistency still. I would put his slider as his #2 pitch and also suggest its above average and bordering on a plus pitch.

Just take a few minutes and watch the 2nd and 3rd innings of that game if you want to see what Homer Bailey can do. Its not me 'sticking to my guns', its me telling the truth of what is up.

[kaldaniels]

Go here (http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/multimedia/video.jsp) and then choose September 4, then choose the Louisville/Durham game. Watch Bailey pitch. He was sitting 93-95 MPH and was hitting 96 MPH in the 6th inning according to scouts at the game.

As for his curveball, it still flashes itself as a very good pitch but he just cant locate it with any kind of consistency still. I would put his slider as his #2 pitch and also suggest its above average and bordering on a plus pitch.

Just take a few minutes and watch the 2nd and 3rd innings of that game if you want to see what Homer Bailey can do. Its not me 'sticking to my guns', its me telling the truth of what is up.

Thats one game though...what about his 7.00+ ERA in the bigs last year. That, unfortunately is the truth in my, and many others' eyes. He may have looked good and filthy during a minor league game or two at the end of the year...but in terms of producing at the big league level, he has shown me nothing, and the Reds' as an organization have shown that they are unable to get results with him as well. I don't mind them cutting the cord on him. This kid was really looking good in the minors (even AAA) 2-3 years ago...what happened to that. Now I sadly look at his 4.77 ERA in Louisville last year. He may turn it around still, but looking at him fairly, isn't it safe to say he regressed in 2008?

[M2]

I don't care what the velocity on Bailey's fastball is. It's not a very good pitch. In fact, none of his pitches have been good the past two seasons. wheels nailed it when he noted that there's no comparison between Volquez and Cueto's actual stuff and Bailey's overhyped offerings.

[OnBaseMachine]

Dye-for-Bailey not dead yet?

I know GM Walt Jocketty has denied the rumors about the Reds sending young pitcher Homer Bailey to the White Sox for OF Jermaine Dye publicly, but don't be shocked if Homer does get dealt at some point. Some folks have said there's some truth to the Dye-for-Bailey rumor and here's why: The Reds need a right-handed No. 3 hitter to put between the young guys (Votto and Bruce). Dye and Reds manager Dusty Baker know each other well and get along. The Reds are not sure Bailey will ever throw strikes consistently because of too much length in his arm action. That also might keep him from finding consistency with his breaking ball. Add into the mix that there's pressure from Reds ownership on Jocketty to make something happen and it's possible this isn't done yet on the Reds end.

As for the White Sox, they have developed a bit of a track record in young arm "reclamation projects." Gavin Floyd is the most obvious and recent example, a guy who struggled with his original organization (the Phillies), but clicked once he had a change of scenery. Bailey's raw stuff is still outstanding and if another organization -- White Sox or otherwise -- feels they can help him harness it, it might be a worthwhile gamble.

-- Jonathan Mayo

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/

[redsfan30]

I, for one, hope this winds up happening. This team needs a guy like Dye in the middle of the order to put between Votto and Bruce.

Sign Furcal (I know it's a probably a pipedream) and here's your lineup:

Furcal
Phillips
Votto
Dye
Bruce
Encarnacion
Dickerson
Hannigan

That is SICK.

[Ltlabner]

Just take a few minutes and watch the 2nd and 3rd innings of that game if you want to see what Homer Bailey can do. Its not me 'sticking to my guns', its me telling the truth of what is up.

Seems to me there were a couple of games where Kyle Loshe looked like an uber-stud during his time in Cincy.

And I seem to recal a game where Elizardo Rameriz crushed the Astros and had a fistfull of strike outs.

There was a game or two where Matt Belisle looked like Arron Harrang v.2.

One game does not a pitcher make.

[TRF]

Seems to me there were a couple of games where Kyle Loshe looked like an uber-stud during his time in Cincy.

And I seem to recal a game where Elizardo Rameriz crushed the Astros.

There was a game or two where Matt Belisle looked like Arron Harrang v.2.

One game does not a pitcher make.

True.

But I really don't want to see Bailey traded for a 39 year old player coming off a career year.

[redsfan30]

True.

But I really don't want to see Bailey traded for a 39 year old player coming off a career year.

He'll be 35 in January, and I'd hardly call last season a career year. He's been solid his entire career and would be a great fit in this lineup.

[kaldaniels]

True.

But I really don't want to see Bailey traded for a 39 year old player coming off a career year.

Sorry, but thats an outrageous take on Dye.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dyeje01.shtml

He's been solid the past 10 years.

[Ltlabner]

True.

But I really don't want to see Bailey traded for a 39 year old player coming off a career year.

Isn't Dye 35, not 39? Not that it matters much. I'm not completly sold on the Dye/Bailey deal in total.

Just making the point that Doug is clinging to this one game where Bailey looks filthy as proof positive that he's going to get it all together when pitchers can look insanely sick for one game.

I woln't even get into the falicy of comparing the AAA batters to their MLB counterparts.

[RedEye]

Furcal
Phillips
Votto
Dye
Bruce
Encarnacion
Dickerson
Hannigan

That is SICK.

I know you mean "sick" in one sense of the word, but I have a feeling that Dye and Furcal might end up making the other sense of it more appropriate (both for the Reds injury report and my stomach).

[TRF]

Guess i have Rhodes on my mind. yes Dye is 35.

But he is an OB% challenged guy with declining skills in the OF. He has NOT been a solid offensive threat

Since 2000, he's posted the following OPS #'s

2001 - .813
2002 - .792
2003 - .514 Injury I think
2004 - .793
2005 - .845
2006 - 1.007 - by far his best year
2007 - .803
2008 - .885

He's average. He's always been average to very good, but his defense is in a decline. And he'll be 35 in January.

HR's by players age 35.


Home Runs
Rank Player HR Year
1. Mark McGwire 65 1999
2. Barry Bonds 49 2000
Babe Ruth 49 1930
4. Andres Galarraga 47 1996
5. Hank Aaron 44 1969
Hank Greenberg 44 1946
7. Frank Thomas 42 2003
Jim Thome 42 2006
9. Cy Williams 41 1923
10. Johnny Mize 40 1948

I don't see Dye sitting in this group. or near it. he's a 28-32 HR guy who doesn't get on base as much as the Reds need him to. Since 2001 he's had 5 seasons where he SLG under .500.

Sorry, I'm a used to a tad more from the Reds LF.

[redsfan30]

I know you mean "sick" in one sense of the word, but I have a feeling that Dye and Furcal might end up making the other sense of it more appropriate (both for the Reds injury report and my stomach).

Furcal would be a high risk signing with his back injury history, yes. But it'd be a signing I'd be willing to take a chance on.

Why in the world would Dye make you feel "sick to your stomach" in the middle of the order?

[Heath]

Hal also had the exclusive "scoop" after the 2001 season that Ron Oester had been hired as manager of the Reds.

Oester had the job. Then Bowden screwed him.

[Heath]

Doug - I know you love Homer, but one game last year can't erase two years of under whelming performances.

I mean, he could be David Nied as far as we know. He could be Nolan Ryan.

Cut bait at somepoint. I think the guy needs a change of scenery.

[Roy Tucker]

I hate to give up on Homer, but given the odds of him putting it all together in a Reds uniform in 2009 are pretty low given his 2007-2008 track record. And after 2009, the Reds' hands will be tied and they'll have to have to develop him on the 25 man roster.

If WJ can exchange him for a solid contributor like Dye (or Shoppach or equivalent), I say pull the trigger.

However, there is enough talent there to say if WJ can't get good value, then take your chances with him in 2009. I can think of worse candidates for the 5th starter slot.

[Kc61]

I'm not a scout. I don't know how Bailey projects at this point. He's only 22, I'm not worried about his major league numbers. I am concerned about his fall off in strikeouts at AAA, as compared with lower minor league levels.

As far as trading him for a veteran player, the question I have is who else the Reds have in their stable to trade?

EE -- fine but they currently have no other third baseman so I don't see trading him for a left fielder.

Arroyo -- fine, but it leaves you short in starting pitching, a disaster for this team over the past decade.

Phillips -- the only player on the team who provides plus defense and reasonably good offensive production. Don't see the point of trading him for a hitter.

Top prospects -- Alonso can't be traded yet. I guess they could trade Frazier and Valaika who have questionable defensive positions. Don't know that they would get you that much and probably worth more to see if their bats develop for Reds.

Stubbs -- include him in a deal if necessary, his bat is uncertain, but again as an outfielder without a top bat don't know what he gets Reds in a trade. Probably a second player in a trade, not the marquee guy.

The Reds have a thin roster, they need players, Bailey hasn't emerged as a pitcher, and has only one year left in the minors. So -- on the theory that somebody of value has to be traded -- he seems like the logical guy.

[Caveat Emperor]

Make no mistake about it, I don't want Jermaine Dye anywhere near this team -- he's at the age where production declines, he isn't very good defensively, has had more than a few suspect OBA seasons, and I think his best years are behind him. The team just got rid of a guy just like him in Ken Griffey Jr. Why are we rushing to replace the old?

But, having said that, I also won't lose any sleep over Homer Bailey leaving the Reds organization. He screems "needs a change of scenery" like no other player in the system, and I don't think he's going to become a productive starting pitcher before he runs out of options. That's especially problematic when you've got 5 guys better than him on the roster already.

And , as to your point doug -- I've watched Bailey pitch, both in person and on television. The faster he throws, the less movement his fastball has. He can dial to 96, but it comes straight as an arrow when he does -- and he frequently has no idea where it's going to boot. Maybe he can yet make something out of hismelf, but I don't think the Reds are ever going to see it. Best to get what they can from him and move on.

[M2]

True.

But I really don't want to see Bailey traded for a 39 year old player coming off a career year.

Bailey for a regular strikes me as a steal for the Reds.

It's one thing to build from within and keep the kids who can help. It's another to obsessively hold onto all kids.

Bailey has to make good in 2009 or he'll be out of options. I'd just as soon have another team take that risk.

[dougdirt]

I don't care what the velocity on Bailey's fastball is. It's not a very good pitch. In fact, none of his pitches have been good the past two seasons. wheels nailed it when he noted that there's no comparison between Volquez and Cueto's actual stuff and Bailey's overhyped offerings.

When was the last time you saw Bailey throw his 4 seam fastball? 2007?

Here is the Pitch F/X data for the three (averages)


Fastball Slider Change Up Cutter
Player Mvmt X Mvmt Y Mvmt X Mvmt Y Mvmt X Mvmt Y Mvmt X Mvmt Y
Bailey -7.65 8.4 0.55 2.86 -4.19 9.09 -2.75 10.51
Cueto -5.01 10.33 0.69 1.8 -5.03 3.65
Volquez -8.61 6.88 -6.98 1.83 -4.47 9.42


Here is the chart
http://www.redsminorleagues.com/images/redspfx.gif

Basically Homers fastball has movement right in line between Volquez and Cueto. His Slider looks nearly identical to Cueto's. I just don't know why Bailey has a 'flat straight' fastball but Cueto and Volquez don't, yet Bailey's movement falls right in the middle of each of them. Maybe its the arm angle Bailey uses that causes it to appear that way to your eyes, I honestly don't know, but the data suggests that one of the statements isn't accurate.

[M2]

When was the last time you saw Bailey throw his 4 seam fastball? 2007?

When's the last time one of your theories on Homer Bailey was close to being right?

If you actually think the quality on Bailey's fastball is close to Volquez or Cueto (particularly Volquez), guys who can make major league hitters actually swing and miss, then you need to stop pretending you possess observational powers when it comes to the game of baseball.

[dougdirt]

Doug - I know you love Homer, but one game last year can't erase two years of under whelming performances.

I mean, he could be David Nied as far as we know. He could be Nolan Ryan.

Cut bait at somepoint. I think the guy needs a change of scenery.

One game doesn't change anything, but neither does two years of injuries that weren't arm related or his pitches being held back that led to 'under whelming performances'.

It has little to do with loving Homer and a lot more to do with loving good pitchers and Bailey has the stuff that is really good.

[dougdirt]

When's the last time one of your theories on Homer Bailey was close to being right?

Edit:
After thinking it over, I don't think I have had a theory on Bailey since last offseason. The fact that he had his repertoire limited this year is not a theory, its a truth. The fact that he pitched on a sprained MCL some this year wasn't a theory, it too was a fact.