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AccordinglyReds
12-07-2008, 09:47 PM
Source: Reds deal Bailey for White Sox slugger

Jermaine Dye, a 12-year veteran with a .278 career average, would give team a proven right-handed batter.

By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Sunday, December 07, 2008

With baseball's annual winter meetings unfurling this week at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, rumors run rampant.

A noteworthy one involving the Cincinnati Reds is making the rounds pitcher Homer Bailey for Chicago White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye.

A major-league source close to the situation told The Dayton Daily News on Sunday, Dec. 7, "The deal is done and will be announced this week."

The Reds are in the market for an outfielder and moving Bailey makes sense. The 22-year-old righthander, the team's No. 1 draft pick in 2004, has not lived up to high expectations and some club officials believe a change of venue would be best for him.

Bailey was 0-6 with a 7.93 ERA in eight starts with the Reds last year and was only 4-7 with a 4.77 ERA at Class AAA Louisville.

He won only one game at Louisville after April and that was in September.

And he didn't enamor himself with the team when he was demoted to Louisville in early August and said he welcomed the demotion because Louisville had a winning atmosphere and the clubhouse was more fun.

Dye, 34, is a 12-year veteran with a .278 career major-league average after hitting .292 last season in 154 games.

He is a right-handed bat, something the Reds need, and he hit 34 homers with 96 RBIs playing for the White Sox in homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/12/07/ddn120808spredsweb.html

AccordinglyReds
12-07-2008, 09:48 PM
While I believe the Reds need a LF bat, preferably RH....I don't really like this trade if it happened (source from McCoy).

Bip Roberts
12-07-2008, 09:55 PM
I dont know if i like this unless we seriously add some more talent to this roster.

freestyle55
12-07-2008, 09:55 PM
Agreed...Bailey's 22 years old, has #1 starter stuff, and we just traded him for a worse than average defensive, decent hitting 35 yr old outfielder...

I think in a couple years, when Bailey harnesses his control, we're really, really going to regret this trade.

I really hope that it was straight up, and not anything else included on our side...

Orodle
12-07-2008, 09:59 PM
I would love this trade. Dye is solid.

AccordinglyReds
12-07-2008, 09:59 PM
Not to mention a 1yr rental of a player that is aging. I'm not saying Dye wouldn't contribute, but to lose Bailey like this makes me feel shafted.

Emin3mShady07
12-07-2008, 10:00 PM
I am estatic, sorry guys, but I love Homer Bailey and I hope Dye works out for you, but I think Chicago just found there next anchor to the pitching staff for years to come.

Emin3mShady07
12-07-2008, 10:02 PM
Dye is a very below average fielder and for the Reds sake I hope Dusty doesn't grandfather him into RF just because he played there last year, he belongs in LF and wouldn't be as bad of a fielder there, but obviously his defense would not improve that much.

steig
12-07-2008, 10:03 PM
I realize the need add a right handed bat to this lineup but I really like the potential of Homer. I know he may never develop into a stud but there is the possibility. We can only hope that Dye plays well and the Reds turn it around this season. If Dye helps lead the Reds into a playoff spot then the deal can be looked as good for both teams. Otherwise the deal is far better for the Sox. I hope it works out for the both teams.

freestyle55
12-07-2008, 10:04 PM
For those on the not liking side, at least there's one positive to this trade-to-be...

At least it's not for Laird, a backup catcher...

It gives me hope that our front office is infinitely more capable than the other "professional sports" franchise in Cincinnati...assuming you can really call them professional...

If this does go down, I really hope there's more to come...Dye alone gets us only 4th place probably...not worth giving up a potential #1 for a 1 year rental that gets us 3rd or 4th place at best...

5DOLLAR-BLEACHERBUM
12-07-2008, 10:04 PM
Not too upset about this one, makes for a great offensive line-up. The guy has power and actually hits for a decent average. I kinda got sour on Homer after last year, not sure he has the attitude needed for him to live up to his potential. Hopefully with Walt at the helm pitching will not be as scarse in this organization as it was in the past, maybe a new Homer will come out of the draft this year. This move has go for it in 09 all over it, and you gotta love that. We are young enough at most positions that we can load up this year and not have to tear it down and start over.

CRedsLarkin11
12-07-2008, 10:08 PM
It's hard for the Reds to win this trade really unless they find a way to get to the playoffs this year. (highly doubtful) It's either a draw because Dye has a slightly declined year with the Reds and Homer never amounts to anything or Homer becomes special and the Reds get raped.

The only reason I'm pessimistic here is I think you either go for it now(which I don't think we're ready for or willing to spend for) or you start rebuilding. This team has not been successful because they have not sold out or started over yet...they stay right in the middle with no plan. Surely Jocketty has a plan... if we get a SS and catcher and another reliever or two worth writing home about... I may become a little excited about this but not yet

CRedsLarkin11
12-07-2008, 10:11 PM
For those on the not liking side, at least there's one positive to this trade-to-be...

At least it's not for Laird, a backup catcher...



I definitely agree here... all of those rumors were really worrying me. This is 10 times better than bringing in Laird

freestyle55
12-07-2008, 10:23 PM
I definitely agree here... all of those rumors were really worrying me. This is 10 times better than bringing in Laird

If that one would have happened, there would seriously be a need to get the Who Dey Revolution guys to start a "Big Red Revolution"...

REDblooded
12-07-2008, 10:48 PM
Just freaking great....... Welcome to the Jocketty years folks!

REDblooded
12-07-2008, 10:51 PM
This trade is going to make the Liriano/Nathan deal look fair in comparison.

wojo1025
12-07-2008, 10:59 PM
This trade is going to make the Liriano/Nathan deal look fair in comparison.


I'll take that bet.

Orodle
12-07-2008, 11:04 PM
Agreed...Bailey's 22 years old, has #1 starter stuff, and we just traded him for a worse than average defensive, decent hitting 35 yr old outfielder...

I think in a couple years, when Bailey harnesses his control, we're really, really going to regret this trade.

I really hope that it was straight up, and not anything else included on our side...


Please tell me what in Bailey's arsenal is #1 starter type stuff.

kentjett
12-07-2008, 11:06 PM
Bailey has been a pain in the ass since he was drafted. He has the stuff but he don't have the make-up to become a great pitcher. Dye will be a defensive upgrade in left over Dunn and he'll put up similiar if not better offensive numbers than Dunn. I expect him to hit .270 w/ 30 HR, 90 rbi's and roughly 100 strikeouts. With Dunn we were getting .245 40 HR, 100 and roughly 175 strikeouts. Dunn's OBP is around .380 compared to Dyes .340 but Dye puts the ball in play a lot more often and has a cannon for a arm. Plus we'll get a #1 draft pick when he leaves. Good trade

laxtonto
12-07-2008, 11:08 PM
Slow down....

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/chi-081207-chicago-white-sox-winter-meetings,0,7672373.story



White Sox shoot down trade rumors about Dye, Jenks

GoReds33
12-07-2008, 11:08 PM
Great move. I have no problem selling low on Bailey. For the most part, my thinking is based on my opinion that we are buying low on Dye. If he can return to form, he's a great middle of the order bat. I think having a presence like this gives a huge lift to Votto and Bruce. If we can get Furcal, I'll be pumped.

captainmorgan07
12-07-2008, 11:08 PM
Bailey needs a change of scenery and we desperately needed a veteran right handed bat in the lineup. If dye can make the switch to leftfield everything will be fine. In my opinion Bailey is no great loss.

TheNext44
12-07-2008, 11:11 PM
First, this probably means that the Reds will not sign Dunn, which is depressing for me, but I will get over it.

That said, I really like this trade if it is true. (I am not sure it is true, since I remember a few years ago when Hal said that Krivsky would not be the new GM, but someone else...I forget who)

The Reds needed a big RH bat to play LF, and Dye fits that bill. Bat him fourth between Bruce and Votto and you have a solid middle lineup that scares pitchers.

His defense is below average, but still, Dye, Dickerson, Bruce is a defensive upgrade over Dunn, Patterson, Griffey. The Reds can handle one bad outfielder, just not two like last year.

He should slug almost as well as Dunn, but without the high OBP. Nobody's perfect. He should be good enought to make Bruce and Votto get pitched to, which is the key.

I don't mind the mutual option. If he has a good year, then he will opt out and be a free agent. That means that the Reds will get two top draft picks for him, since they can offer him arbitration, and not worry if he accepts, since he was the one who opted out. So the deal is suppossedly five years of Homer for one year or two years of Dye and two draft picks. I can be happy with that.

We also don't know what the actual deal may be. I have a hunch it could be held up over money, the Reds wanting the Sox to pay part of it, or maybe to take Freel or something like that. The Reds could be getting prospects back in return too, no one knows.

As for giving up Homer, I actually think he will be a good pitcher...someday. I am not sure when that will be and if that would ever be with the Reds. Still, when it comes to trading prospects, you do so as a calculated risk. You trade away 10 good ones over the years and two become stars, three become decent major leaguers and five go nowhere. It doesn't matter what happens to Homer, as long as The Reds keep getting good value for all the prospects they trade. And the Reds got good value for him.

One more thing, this better only be the first step. Walt needs to get a backup catcher, a SS in case Gonzo doesn't make it and a few more relievers, especially a loogy. Still it is a very solid first step in my opinion if it is true.

forfreelin04
12-07-2008, 11:16 PM
It amazes me how so many people ignore the facts. Bailey showed significant decline last year. Last year, he lost his velocity. The year before that, he lost his control.

I think Jocketty has alot to lose if Bailey becomes his premature legend. However, the odds of that happening are in WJ's favor.

We need to look at Bailey's problems on the whole and realize this is not problems like spotting the curve ball, throwing the right pitch in the right count, or holding runners on base(the A and AA problem) this is fundamentals that he's lost. This would scare me and it scared Walt, hence the deal. Congrats to Walt. Right deal, right time. If Bailey had showed the same or declined more next year, we wouldn't have got spit for him.

TC81190
12-07-2008, 11:16 PM
Wonder if its legit or not now

bw87a
12-07-2008, 11:18 PM
First, this probably means that the Reds will not sign Dunn, which is depressing for me, but I will get over it.

That said, I really like this trade if it is true. (I am not sure it is true, since I remember a few years ago when Hal said that Krivsky would not be the new GM, but someone else...I forget who)

The Reds needed a big RH bat to play LF, and Dye fits that bill. Bat him fourth between Bruce and Votto and you have a solid middle lineup that scares pitchers.

His defense is below average, but still, Dye, Dickerson, Bruce is a defensive upgrade over Dunn, Patterson, Griffey. The Reds can handle one bad outfielder, just not two like last year.

He should slug almost as well as Dunn, but without the high OBP. Nobody's perfect. He should be good enought to make Bruce and Votto get pitched to, which is the key.

I don't mind the mutual option. If he has a good year, then he will opt out and be a free agent. That means that the Reds will get two top draft picks for him, since they can offer him arbitration, and not worry if he accepts, since he was the one who opted out. So the deal is suppossedly five years of Homer for one year or two years of Dye and two draft picks. I can be happy with that.

We also don't know what the actual deal may be. I have a hunch it could be held up over money, the Reds wanting the Sox to pay part of it, or maybe to take Freel or something like that. The Reds could be getting prospects back in return too, no one knows.

As for giving up Homer, I actually think he will be a good pitcher...someday. I am not sure when that will be and if that would ever be with the Reds. Still, when it comes to trading prospects, you do so as a calculated risk. You trade away 10 good ones over the years and two become stars, three become decent major leaguers and five go nowhere. It doesn't matter what happens to Homer, as long as The Reds keep getting good value for all the prospects they trade. And the Reds got good value for him.

One more thing, this better only be the first step. Walt needs to get a backup catcher, a SS in case Gonzo doesn't make it and a few more relievers, especially a loogy. Still it is a very solid first step in my opinion if it is true.

good post. i agree with your assessment of bailey. i think this was a pretty good trade; i'd like to see what a fresh veteran outfielder can bring, especially to the psyche of the team too! go reds!

freestyle55
12-07-2008, 11:21 PM
Please tell me what in Bailey's arsenal is #1 starter type stuff.

I'm no expert on it, but when I read the experts, like the folks at Baseball America, apparently (without the injury talk of the last two years) he had a great 4 seamer, 2 seamer, curveball, and his change wasn't that bad.

He was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball a year/two ago, and he had a rough year that included injury and from what folks on the other board have said, not allowing him to throw the 4 seamer.

Just because the guy hasn't put it all together yet doesn't mean he wont...see Volquez, Edinson...

Though perhaps a change of scenery is needed, I would prefer to give it another year to find out...

steig
12-07-2008, 11:25 PM
Looks like the deal might not have happened yet

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/



Bailey-Dye Trade Report Shot Down
By Tim Dierkes [December 7 at 8:51pm CST]

8:51pm: Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune says "a source familiar with the talks" rejected the report below. The Sox want more than just Bailey. Gonzales' source adds that talks with the Mets for Bobby Jenks fell apart over Omar Minaya's unwillingness to include Bobby Parnell.

7:46pm: According to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News, a Major League source told him a Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye trade "is done and will be announced this week."

It'd essentially be six years of Bailey for one of Dye (plus possible draft pick compensation), as Dye has a mutual option for 2010 at $12MM. Those almost never get fully exercised - if one side wants it, the other doesn't. It would be interesting to see what the White Sox could do with Bailey given their recent success developing young pitchers.

Bip Roberts
12-07-2008, 11:35 PM
I wouldnt doubt it Hal McCoy just made this crap up considering his hatred of Homer Bailey

smoke6
12-07-2008, 11:43 PM
Just freaking great....... Welcome to the Jocketty years folks!

What has Homer done besides being a pain in the butt? ZERO.

BigJohn
12-08-2008, 12:18 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081207&content_id=3705530&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

David Cubbedge
12-08-2008, 12:32 AM
Bob Miller
"We haven't talked to White Sox since we got here (Las Vegas)," Miller said.

Walt Jocketty
"We haven't had any discussions with the White Sox since before Thanksgiving," Jocketty told MLB.com.

Two different thoughts here?

David Cubbedge
12-08-2008, 12:35 AM
Goldstein said it happened:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1118

Bip Roberts
12-08-2008, 12:41 AM
There have been updates since then from 3 or 4 places

DannyB
12-08-2008, 12:42 AM
Goldstein said it happened:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1118

Then he changed his mind

Kevin Goldstein
BP staff
(27460)You're right. I should append to "Reports are saying that . . . " -- this one is NOT official yet.

Dec 07, 2008 20:03 PMlink

Ghosts of 1990
12-08-2008, 12:49 AM
Thank God.

Where there is smoke there is fire.

Bailey is being dangled like crazy. Hasn't went down yet but I say that there is some truth to this. I'd say it almost went down and Jocketty is lying. This would be a HUGE mistake IMO.

DTCromer
12-08-2008, 01:19 AM
"Reports are saying the Sox want more. . "

That should tell you all you need to know about Bailey.

The guy is a waste here in Cincy. let him go. . . He's a tool who wants to read his hunting magazines.

Bip Roberts
12-08-2008, 01:20 AM
God forbid him from being interesting in hunting :laugh:

JayBruceFan
12-08-2008, 01:20 AM
Dye in LF, Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF

There's your Outfield

morande
12-08-2008, 01:21 AM
I pray this is straight up, if we gave up more than just homer i dont like it

morande
12-08-2008, 01:25 AM
Lineup 09
anyone else potentially excited for this???

1-dicerson
2-phillips
3-bruce
4-dye
5-votto
6-edwin
7-hannigan
8-ss ?

Ghosts of 1990
12-08-2008, 01:26 AM
Dye is 35.

He'd be a one year rental.

Get him to agree to a reasonable 2 or 3 year extension and I'd do it. But not trading a prospect the potential of Bailey for just Dye.

Bailey is 22. Too many of you are looking at the numbers. Same thing Philly did with Gavin Floyd.

DTCromer
12-08-2008, 01:26 AM
God forbid him from being interesting in hunting :laugh:

I'm interested in hunting, but not when I'm on the job.

morande
12-08-2008, 01:27 AM
"Reports are saying the Sox want more. . "

That should tell you all you need to know about Bailey.

The guy is a waste here in Cincy. let him go. . . He's a tool who wants to read his hunting magazines.

It will tough to do any hunting in the south side of chicago

Ghosts of 1990
12-08-2008, 01:27 AM
Lineup 09
anyone else potentially excited for this???

1-dicerson
2-phillips
3-bruce
4-dye
5-votto
6-edwin
7-hannigan
8-ss ?

We're not gonna win the series in 2009 though. And in 2010 when we're a better shot to make the playoffs, where will Dye be then? He's old and broke down. Coming to cincinnati will be a finishing touch.

Then again, many thought Greg Vaughn was as well in 1999. What do I know.

George Foster
12-08-2008, 01:38 AM
ESPN is reporting this as a done deal!

morande
12-08-2008, 01:43 AM
If he hits 30-35 homeruns and drives in 95 or so rbi's I tink he we will make an impact. Which is about the same numbers he had last year he will be worth it. I'm not expecting a world series or even to win the central. I do think the we will be in the wild card race in 09. I know its easy to say this in december but I'd like to see a player or two out of the rule 5 tat can make a differnce. To say he will be around in 2010 would probably be a stretch but it is possible

morande
12-08-2008, 01:45 AM
ESPN is reporting this as a done deal!

Where did you see this at?

Bip Roberts
12-08-2008, 01:49 AM
It was on the bottom line but they said something about walt saying it didnt happen

DTCromer
12-08-2008, 02:55 AM
ESPN is reporting this as a done deal!

In other words, it didn't happen. . .as much I'd I'm hoping it did.

REDblooded
12-08-2008, 04:30 AM
It amazes me how so many people ignore the facts. Bailey showed significant decline last year. Last year, he lost his velocity. The year before that, he lost his control.

I think Jocketty has alot to lose if Bailey becomes his premature legend. However, the odds of that happening are in WJ's favor.

We need to look at Bailey's problems on the whole and realize this is not problems like spotting the curve ball, throwing the right pitch in the right count, or holding runners on base(the A and AA problem) this is fundamentals that he's lost. This would scare me and it scared Walt, hence the deal. Congrats to Walt. Right deal, right time. If Bailey had showed the same or declined more next year, we wouldn't have got spit for him.


It amazes ME that so many reds fans ignore the fact that at his age, if he wasn't rushed to the majors and losing his rookie eligibility, that Homer would still be one of the top prospects in all of baseball...

It amazes me that so many Reds fans have given up on this kid despite his young age just because of the early hype and how long he's been in the system.

It amazes me that so many Reds fans don't realize that he spent the majority of last season without his number 1 pitch, which should make him a MUCH better pitcher in the future.

It amazes me that so many Reds fans are so emotional and fickle when it comes to such a legitimate prospect.

REDblooded
12-08-2008, 04:32 AM
It also amazes me that so many Reds fans would think this is a good deal.....

If it's a good deal, you're evidently under the impression that 2009 is without a doubt the Reds season, and we are one right-handed bat away from winning the World Series. If that's the case, you make this deal. If not, it's utterly foolish.

REDblooded
12-08-2008, 04:36 AM
When I wake up tomorrow, if I see Albert Pujols, and a healthy Chris Carpenter, along with Dave Duncan on our team, I'm stoked about this potential deal... If not, yuck.

redsfandan
12-08-2008, 06:07 AM
slow down people. until it's official it's an unconfirmed rumor. there'll be a ton of them in the next few days.

ChatterRed
12-08-2008, 09:11 AM
Bailey will never be anything more than a 4 or 5 starter. He is so overrated. He does not have the maturity or mental makeup to be a solid starter in the major leagues.

This is a good trade because we get Dye for 1 or 2 years to fill the gap between our farm system filling the position.

I think it was a good move because more than likely, other trading partners wanted too much.

ChatterRed
12-08-2008, 09:13 AM
It amazes ME that so many reds fans ignore the fact that at his age, if he wasn't rushed to the majors and losing his rookie eligibility, that Homer would still be one of the top prospects in all of baseball...

It amazes me that so many Reds fans have given up on this kid despite his young age just because of the early hype and how long he's been in the system.

It amazes me that so many Reds fans don't realize that he spent the majority of last season without his number 1 pitch, which should make him a MUCH better pitcher in the future.

It amazes me that so many Reds fans are so emotional and fickle when it comes to such a legitimate prospect.

It amazes me that you're so high on a guy who has had two stints in the major leagues and continues to post a plus-7.00 e.r.a.

He's overrated. I have no fear of him becoming a superstar because it will never happen.

tommycash
12-08-2008, 09:44 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081207&content_id=3705530&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Walt says this isn't true. While I think that Bailey still has a lot of potential, I think the straight up is much better than trading Bailey with other prospects in our system. Dye is good, but not worth giving much more than Bailey for.

freestyle55
12-08-2008, 10:08 AM
It amazes me that you're so high on a guy who has had two stints in the major leagues and continues to post a plus-7.00 e.r.a.

He's overrated. I have no fear of him becoming a superstar because it will never happen.

Because we all know that people never turn things around after being rushed to the majors...

Old NDN
12-08-2008, 10:37 AM
What do the Reds need most, a RH power hitter in LF or a 4-5 starter? I, for one, am not worried about 2-3 yr down the road. What's the chances of keeping our best players when they become free agent-elgible? Who's to say Harang/Arroyo, etc. will continue to be good pitchers? Just too many variables. Do whatever is necessary to give us the best chance to compete now. I'm tired of waiting for "next year".

BruiserUD
12-08-2008, 12:42 PM
Dont know if someone already posted this but according to RotoWorld this trade hasnt happened.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/HeadLines.aspx?sport=MLB&hl=252578

Looks like Hal got me all excited to see Homer leave for nothing.

Emin3mShady07
12-08-2008, 01:55 PM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081207&content_id=3705530&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

Walt says this isn't true. While I think that Bailey still has a lot of potential, I think the straight up is much better than trading Bailey with other prospects in our system. Dye is good, but not worth giving much more than Bailey for.

I'd say that Dye is actually worth more than just Bailey, but the reds are hindered by a limited payroll. If this were the Yankees and the Red Sox, Dye is worth Bailey + like Kenny Williams was originally asking for. But context always matters and I think that Bailey will be more important to this franchise in 2010 and 2011 and 2012 than Dye will be in 2009.

GOYA
12-08-2008, 02:09 PM
I can't help but feel that Bailey is worth considerably more than 1 year of Dye. Even if he only tops out at a 3-4 starter, that has plenty of value. I could see Thompson or Maloney, but not Bailey. But I guess it's a bird in the hand and two in the bush kinda thing. Time will tell.

OesterPoster
12-08-2008, 02:22 PM
not dead yet...

Dye-for-Bailey not dead yet?
I know GM Walt Jocketty has denied the rumors about the Reds sending young pitcher Homer Bailey to the White Sox for OF Jermaine Dye publicly, but don't be shocked if Homer does get dealt at some point. Some folks have said there's some truth to the Dye-for-Bailey rumor and here's why: The Reds need a right-handed No. 3 hitter to put between the young guys (Votto and Bruce). Dye and Reds manager Dusty Baker know each other well and get along. The Reds are not sure Bailey will ever throw strikes consistently because of too much length in his arm action. That also might keep him from finding consistency with his breaking ball. Add into the mix that there's pressure from Reds ownership on Jocketty to make something happen and it's possible this isn't done yet.

As for the White Sox, they have developed a bit of a track record in young arm "reclamation projects." Gavin Floyd is the most obvious and recent example, a guy who struggled with his original organization (the Phillies), but clicked once he had a change of scenery. Bailey's raw stuff is still outstanding and if another organization -- White Sox or otherwise -- feels they can help him harness it, it might be a worthwhile gamble.

-- Jonathan Mayo
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 1:12

DannyB
12-08-2008, 03:56 PM
Dye in LF, Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF

There's your Outfield
I could go for that.
Bet we see more of Freel and Hairston in center tho.

morande
12-08-2008, 04:07 PM
not dead yet...

Dye-for-Bailey not dead yet?
I know GM Walt Jocketty has denied the rumors about the Reds sending young pitcher Homer Bailey to the White Sox for OF Jermaine Dye publicly, but don't be shocked if Homer does get dealt at some point. Some folks have said there's some truth to the Dye-for-Bailey rumor and here's why: The Reds need a right-handed No. 3 hitter to put between the young guys (Votto and Bruce). Dye and Reds manager Dusty Baker know each other well and get along. The Reds are not sure Bailey will ever throw strikes consistently because of too much length in his arm action. That also might keep him from finding consistency with his breaking ball. Add into the mix that there's pressure from Reds ownership on Jocketty to make something happen and it's possible this isn't done yet.

As for the White Sox, they have developed a bit of a track record in young arm "reclamation projects." Gavin Floyd is the most obvious and recent example, a guy who struggled with his original organization (the Phillies), but clicked once he had a change of scenery. Bailey's raw stuff is still outstanding and if another organization -- White Sox or otherwise -- feels they can help him harness it, it might be a worthwhile gamble.

-- Jonathan Mayo
Posted on December 8, 2008 at 1:12

I think it's dead because why would the reds deny it instead of no comment on it

robmadden1
12-08-2008, 05:12 PM
From the Bassball Channel online the Reds denied the rummors of Bailey for Dye.

Cobra Commander
12-08-2008, 05:44 PM
I think it's dead because why would the reds deny it instead of no comment on it
Do you remember what happened with the Bengals and trading for Shaun Rogers? That's why. It says to be announced this week.

I didn't expect the Reds to come right out and admit it, and I believe this rumor to be true to a certain extent. Looks like Hal's sticking to his guns.

Steviejoe
12-08-2008, 05:54 PM
Bring him in,but i belive Chicago will want more.But if cincy is going to take on his contract,this seems fair to me.But i still like Alex Rios.So i guess is do we want to get a guy for one year (with a option) and see what happens.But for those who like this deal ,are we going to get him for at least two years?

CesarGeronimo
12-08-2008, 06:39 PM
From the Bassball Channel online the Reds denied the rummors of Bailey for Dye.

Don't trust the Bassball Channel about the Reds. All they have on there is the Marlins and the Rays.

wojo1025
12-10-2008, 02:39 PM
WEDNESDAY, 12:23pm: Ken Rosenthal says the Dye-Reds discussions continue at a moderate level, but for now the Sox expect Dye to be their Opening Day right fielder. A deal was close at one point, but Dye's salary became an issue for the Reds. Rosenthal specualates that the Reds could now just try to get a bargain on Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell.

redsfandan
12-10-2008, 02:48 PM
dye will make $11 million this year. abreu made $16 million last year. so how much less does rosenthal think abreu will make from last year to be a bargain compared to dye? does he think abreu will take a 50% paycut to be a red?

wojo1025
12-10-2008, 03:07 PM
I find it hard to believe we'd get Burrell or Abreu for less than Dye, only difference is we wouldn't have to give up Bailey or others. I know we need a RH hitting OF but Abreu has always had my interest. He seems like a guy that got lost in the shuffle in NYY and just started going through the motions. Bringing him back to a smaller market where he'd be the 'big stick' in the offense may be just what he needs.

freestyle55
12-10-2008, 03:26 PM
I find it hard to believe we'd get Burrell or Abreu for less than Dye, only difference is we wouldn't have to give up Bailey or others. I know we need a RH hitting OF but Abreu has always had my interest. He seems like a guy that got lost in the shuffle in NYY and just started going through the motions. Bringing him back to a smaller market where he'd be the 'big stick' in the offense may be just what he needs.

We'd get them for less simply because they're FA and not trades.

I absolutely don't want Burrell because we had a better version of him before and dumped him at the trade deadline. If we're going to get him, might as well get the better version in Adam Dunn back.

Abreu intrigues me a little...depends on the salary/terms, but he's getting up there in age as well and his power/OBP has dropped recently

wojo1025
12-10-2008, 03:27 PM
Any thoughts of a blockbuster with the Sox in which we'd get Dye and Orlando Cabrera?

redsfandan
12-10-2008, 03:35 PM
Cabrera is a FA

Lockdwn11
12-10-2008, 03:38 PM
The Jermaine Dye-to-the-Reds discussions continue at a "moderate" level, but for the moment the White Sox continue to plan on Dye being their Opening Day right fielder, according to a major-league source.

A deal for Dye was indeed close before Thanksgiving, the source said, with the White Sox expected to receive right-hander Homer Bailey and perhaps another prospect in return.

The trade, however, stalled in part due to questions about how much the White Sox would pay of Dye's $11.5 million salary next season. The amount they paid would have affected the quality of the second prospect in the deal.

Now, the Reds simply might wait to determine whether they can sign a free-agent outfielder such as Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell at a comparable salary without giving up any players in a trade.

Neither Abreu nor Burrell was offered salary arbitration by their former clubs, so neither would cost the Reds a draft pick.



Stick to your guns Walt.

wojo1025
12-10-2008, 03:39 PM
Ahh, my apologies!

schmidty622
12-10-2008, 04:25 PM
If I had my way, I would certainly sign the younger and equally productive Burrell or Abreu before we give up anything for Dye. Abreu, I think would be a nice addition on a two year deal. Burrell I might look to lock up more long term.

redsfandan
12-10-2008, 04:34 PM
abreu is the same age as dye. burrell is only a couple years younger.

WildcatFan
12-10-2008, 04:39 PM
Abreu is left-handed, and his power numbers have dropped WAY off — he hasn't hit more than 24 home runs since '04. I thought we wanted a legitimate right-handed power bat. If we're going to open it up to lefties again, we might as well look no further than Adam Dunn.

schmidty622
12-10-2008, 04:53 PM
Thought Abreu was 34 and Dye was 35. Also hence the differences in contract that I would offer. 4 for Burrell, Two for Abreu.

redsfandan
12-10-2008, 05:12 PM
abreu turns 35 in march. dye turns 35 in january. so i consider them the same age. burrell would have to be cheap for me to be interested (around $6m) and i wouldn't want someone like him for 4 years so he could be in the way of a prospect that could be up within 2 years.

schmidty622
12-10-2008, 05:16 PM
abreu turns 35 in march. dye turns 35 in january. so i consider them the same age. burrell would have to be cheap for me to be interested (around $6m) and i wouldn't want someone like him for 4 years so he could be in the way of a prospect that could be up within 2 years.

Understood on the age, i didn't do any research on it.

As for Burrell and blocking prospects. I don't think it would be an issue as you could just deal Burrell or said prospect, whomever is less valuable for the team, in order to fill other holes.

6 mill seems alittle low, even though I expect him to make less than what was originally thought due to how the market is shaping up.

Kingspoint
12-10-2008, 06:15 PM
Can someone change the title of this thread until it's official.

Handofdeath
12-10-2008, 07:26 PM
Abreu is left-handed, and his power numbers have dropped WAY off — he hasn't hit more than 24 home runs since '04. I thought we wanted a legitimate right-handed power bat. If we're going to open it up to lefties again, we might as well look no further than Adam Dunn.

Hitting HR's has never been a major part of Abreu's game. I do know he was a 20/20 player this year (again). Not to mention he also had at least 100 RBI's for the sixth straight season. AND, he's also still playing a good RF. He's a very good all-around player and the Reds should be going after him hard. Pat Burrell is Adam Dunn Light.

Emin3mShady07
12-10-2008, 10:43 PM
Hitting HR's has never been a major part of Abreu's game. I do know he was a 20/20 player this year (again). Not to mention he also had at least 100 RBI's for the sixth straight season. AND, he's also still playing a good RF. He's a very good all-around player and the Reds should be going after him hard. Pat Burrell is Adam Dunn Light.

In you don't care about handedness, forget Abreu and try to bring back Adam Dunn. In this case, RBIs, don't really mean anything...for the most part, last year Bobby Abreu hit third in the New York Yankees lineup behind arguably the best hitting SS in the American League in Derek Jeter who posted a .363 OBP and Johnny Damon who posted a .375 OBP. 48% of Abreu's plate apperances came with runners on base and and 28% came with RISP. It's hard not to get RBIs with that many opportunities. Adam Dunn spent his time hitting behind Corey Patterson who posted a .217 OBP in his time in the leadoff spot, Brandon Phillips who had a .312 OBP, Jeff Keppinger who had a .303 OBP in the 2-hole, and jerry hariston, the only bright spot, who posted a .384 OBP in limited action while Dunn was a Red. Over the entire season, Dunn amassed exactly 100 RBI's as well, in 30 less plate apperances than Abreu. Also, only 43% of Dunn's PAs came with runners on and 28% came with RISP, so it is clear that Dunn had less oportunities to drive in runs than Abreu and still amassed the same amount. Also, Dunn's three year OPS's of .855, .940, .899 are better than Abreu's .886, .814, .842, so if its not a RH bat you seek, then Adam Dunn sign you should. Dunn is also younger than Abreu and according to the fielding bible they are almost equally bad on defense, and Abreu certainly does not play a good RF any more.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=abreubo01&year=2008
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=dunnad01&year=2008

GoReds33
12-10-2008, 10:46 PM
Can one of the Mods re-name this thread. I'm sure some people are just seeing it and freaking out.

WildcatFan
12-10-2008, 10:48 PM
I agree with you everywhere, especially the Adam Dunn Light. I'm not on the Burrell bandwagon in the least. My point is that Jock has made it clear that his goal is to find a right-handed power hitter — anything else is wasted payroll. I understand that Bruce and Votto hit lefties just as well as righties, I understand Abreu is a solid player, I understand all of that. Our manager, on the other hand, does not, and I can't suffer through another year of him breaking up Bruce and Votto with Brandon Phillips, which is exactly what would happen if Abreu were our third outfielder. That's why I don't see that hole being filled in free agency — it's going to have to come via a trade for someone like a Dye or a Milton Bradley. You're right about Abreu — he's a great player who unfortunately I don't think fits the 2009 Reds.

Now that I've said all of that, I'm sure Abreu will be our opening day right fielder.

TheNext44
12-11-2008, 05:43 PM
This is how I see it.

Dye (- Bailey)<Abreu<Burrell<Rivera<Dunn

Here is why:

Dye costs Bailey, so that make him the least valuable. If it was possible to get him for less, then he would much more valuable, maybe the most.

Abreu is a dou*%ebag. He is a very selfish player. He cares more about his stats than winning. On defense, Phillies fans claim that he won't dive for anything, and any ball hit two feet to his left or two feet to his right is a triple. It is not surprise that the Phillies got competative the day they traded him.

Burrell is a RH Dunn with less power. Still don't understand the handedness debate. Dunn, Votto and Bruce all hit lefties good enought that it shouldn't be an issue.

Rivera is a very strong fielder, which is why I like him over everyone except Dunn. He is the only one in the bunch who is a plus fielder. His bat is a big question mark, however. He just doesn't have the quantity of stats to make a strong conclusion. He never really has been an everyday player, the most AB's he has gotten in one season is 448. That was his best year, but even that was too small of a sample size to conclude anything. His paripherals really don't reveal much either. He could come in and hit .300 .335 .515 or he could hit .260 .310 .440. There really is not enough information to know right now. Still, he would or should be cheap enough to take that risk. I know he doesn't walk much, but he can put up that first set of numbers with his usual walk rate. I love walks, think they are underrated, but if they can be replaced with hits, not a big deal.

And there is no doubt that Dunn has put up the best numbers and will put up the best numbers of the bunch, and he looks to be affordable. However, Walt has made it clear that Dunn is not coming back, so the point is moot.

redsfanmia
12-11-2008, 07:39 PM
The Dunn ship has sailed (thank god) and he is not coming back unless we rehire Leather Pants so let it go.

Steviejoe
12-11-2008, 09:30 PM
The Dye for Bailey rumors are getting as rediclous as the Peavy trade/non trade/trade/non trade.It still could happen,but i don't think so.