View Full Version : See? It's not that difficult to understand the current state of the REDS.

12-08-2008, 06:09 PM
Thanks, OBM. Larry Dobrow is spot on with his assessment of the REDS. Had to post this over at SunDeck. Millions of links about the REDS, but none more accurate than this article.... Here it is:

Dec. 3, 2008
By Larry Dobrow
Special to CBSSports.com

For a team that lost 88 games last season, the Reds sure appear to be attracting a disproportionate share of the "if everything goes right ..." dark-horse buzz. It kinda makes sense: They're armed with one of the game's better cores of young, cheap talent. They return 80 percent of their starting rotation. They have a GM who sees the big picture and a manager who ... uh, knows his way around a toothpick? Treats his players like men, as opposed to wolves or robots?

Even with Dusty Baker involved, the Reds look primed for a nice little turnaround, if not their first winning season since 2000. As opposed to the National League's numerous reconstruction candidates, the Reds need only make a few tweaks -- some bullpen depth here, a left fielder there. And so, with only a few days to go before the Las Vegas winter meetings (and the 7,200 "Vegas, Baby, Vegas" headlines and "What happens in Vegas ..." story leads set to accompany them), we lay our cards on the table, blow on the dice, bum some quarters from a slot monkey and attempt to Save This Franchise! .

Short-term outlook: Pretty darn OK, assuming the expected improvement of the kids and continued development of the next generation. The NL Central doesn't look too imposing, and there's only one crummy long-term contract on the books (Francisco Cordero). This is a situation that can be turned around, and fast.

Assets: That aforementioned glut of talented young players. The wonder-boy tag slapped on right fielder Jay Bruce is legit, as is the mostly Dobrow-fueled hype for Joey Votto. It seems that Brandon Phillips has been around forever, owing to all the noise following the trade that brought him, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee to Cleveland, but he's only 27 and is signed through his prime.

On the pitching side, Edinson Volquez threw so well as to merit Rookie of the Year votes in his fourth go-round in the majors, while Johnny Cueto should thrive once he learns to keep the ball down. Bill Bray is already one of the NL's best lefties out of the 'pen.

Meanwhile, how many teams have four of their five rotation slots inked in at this point in the offseason? In front of Volquez and Cueto, the Reds will run out the veteran moxietudinousness of Aaron Harang and Bronson "Brandon" Arroyo. It'd be nice to slot in a lefty somewhere (maybe take a flyer on Mark Mulder?), but the Reds have plenty of OK-to-sorta-decent possibilities for the fifth slot in-house: Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney, Ramon Ramirez, Daryl Thompson, et al.

Liabilities: They're lefty-deficient on the mound and righty-deficient at the plate. Despite the presence of Bray and Cordero (who's going to giggle his head off when this year's free-agent closers end up taking lesser deals than his), the bullpen looks shallow. Josh Roenicke should be ready to assume a role of some sort, but otherwise there's not much to work with.

Edwin Encarnacion is either a nice asset or a festering rash, depending on who's doing the assessing. Me, I have a weak spot for the boy. However frustrating he might be to watch - the short-attention-span defense, the leisurely trots out of the batter's box - it's hard to ignore that offensive potential. He doesn't seem the sort who responds to tough love; somebody oughta take him out for a soda and playfully tousle his hair.

Then there's the manager. In a refreshing departure from protocol, Dusty ruined a veteran pitcher -- Harang, who fell apart after throwing four relief innings between starts in a meaningless May game against San Diego -- rather than a young one. If you're a parent of a talented 19-year-old pitcher, what worries you more: Having your kid drafted by the military or by a team that employs Baker? Tough call.

Non-helpful and semi-realistic suggestions:

1. Find a big honkin' righty bat to play left field: This is the one position where the Reds got nuthin', even if they re-up 2008 band-aid Jerry Hairston (whose career highs in slugging and on-base percentage at age 32 totally shouldn't make anyone suspicious). The team could go the free-agent route, but Manny Ramirez and Pat Burrell are better ideas in theory (big righty smash smash hooray) than in practice (forbidding price tag, limb-flailingly inept defense). The underrated Juan Rivera could be a nice fit -- and affordable, too, post-injury -- but GM Walt Jocketty has historically avoided sojourns in free agency.

So that leaves the trade market and three candidates -- right fielders Magglio Ordonez, Alex Rios and Jermaine Dye - who'd fit snugly between Bruce and Votto in the batting order. The Tigers, Blue Jays and White Sox all could use young pitching, which the Reds are in a position to surrender. They've already had some talks with the White Sox, who are eager to unload the rest of their win-now guys in the wake of the Nick Swisher and Javier Vazquez deals.

On the other hand, any trade for that elusive left fielder would include Homer Bailey, which would be a mistake. Yes, it's impossible to find a recent reference to Bailey not appended with "really, really needs a change of scenery." But he's still only 22 and, as recently as 18 months ago, was considered one of the game's top five prospects. How far had you evolved professionally and emotionally by age 22? Me, I ate croutons for breakfast and skipped work to catch up on Cheers. Don't give up on the kid ...

2. Unless ... ... Texas GM Jon Daniels comes a-callin', his hair slicked with pomade and a bouquet of pansies in his hand. If you're going to deal Bailey, it shouldn't be for a burly, costly 30-something only three years away from beer-league eligibility.

It can't hurt to ask about Texas' stockpile of catchers, even as Daniels seems to be holding out for an arm like Boston's Clay Buchholz in return. Ryan Hanigan has some patience and "knows how to handle a pitching staff" -- Baseball Prospectus needs to quantify this, perhaps by counting the number of affirming pats on the pitcher's shoulder issued during visits to the mound -- but he profiles as a backup.

3. Scavenge for upgrades: At most positions, the Reds have workable if not ideal in-house options. Worst comes to worst, they can play Hanigan at catcher and either Jeff Keppinger (I'm a fan) or Alex Gonzalez at short. In center, if desperation kicks in, they can platoon Chris Dickerson (an athletic specimen who's allergic to left-handed pitchers) with Ryan Freel (who has to be running out of re-graftable tendons and ligaments by now). While I realize the Reds are on a low budget, that doesn't mean they shouldn't nose around for upgrades. Maybe everybody's favorite lefty-hitting stopgap, Gregg Zaun, could backstop Hanigan?

Center field poses the biggest challenge, in that there are approximately zero available candidates for everyday duty on the trade market (unless some sucker wants to assume Aaron Rowand's looney-tunes contract) or in free agency. The Reds can probably make do with Dickerson if they find him a more reliable platoon partner. Rocco Baldelli? Too pricey for the Reds, plus they'd only be replacing one injury case with another. Prospect Drew Stubbs should fill the void before too long, but he's going to strike out 32 katrillion times if he gets rushed.

Corey Patterson remains very much available. It's not too early to start thinking about restraining orders.

4. Don't hand Dusty the implements of his own demise: He can't play Patterson if he's not on the roster. He can't choose to bench Keppinger for a pint-sized, defense-first shortstop if he has no such individual at his disposal. If I'm Jocketty, I construct the roster in such a manner that makes most of Dusty's decisions for him.

Truth is, I'm probably judging Dusty too harshly on his past. But I can't ignore that his successful tenure in San Francisco just happened to coincide with the prime of one of baseball's 10 greatest players of all time, or that the 2003 Chicago team he managed to 88 wins had 95-win talent.

In 2008, we saw the "good" Dusty. He tempered his calamitous veteran lust, keeping Votto in the lineup through a few dry spells and immediately letting Bruce realize his middle-of-the-order destiny. Hopefully he realizes this is as promising a situation -- gobs of young talent, a GM who can be trusted to fill in the blanks -- as he's likely to charm his way into at this point in his career.

Odds of becoming the next Tampa Bay Rays: They're my pick. Here's the question: if the Reds are in contention come the trade deadline, will ownership pick up the tab for a short-term rental who could push the team over the top? I hope they will. It's time.


12-08-2008, 06:11 PM
It's nice to see that an outsider can see so clearly what many here on the inside seem to miss, though the many are still a minority in opinion.

It's not rocket science, so there's no need to try to make it look like it is.

12-08-2008, 06:44 PM
Larry sees all knows all.

12-08-2008, 07:06 PM
Great read.....

I don't think there's a single point I disagree with. Especially the Homer Bailey stuff

12-08-2008, 07:31 PM
Too bad our offense still blows, Dobrow doesn't even consider the fact that the Reds have only ONE returning regular who OPSd over 110 for a decent portion of the season.

ONE Reds regular was an above-average major-league hitter last year. The Reds' team OBP sucks as well - until the Reds can get on base, we're not going to be crossing the plate much.

If Bruce, Dickerson and Dye show up and OPS+ over 120, then we're competitive. If not... wait till 2010.

12-08-2008, 09:41 PM
Good read, thanks. If an outsider sees the potential............. Loved his comment on Bray, who got the better on that deal now? I believe there are others in the system who may break in before this year is far along. Roenicke, and I just can't get Dorn out of mind, along with Ramirez, Thompson--- if he can stay healthy, --et al.

12-08-2008, 11:46 PM
On the other hand, any trade for that elusive left fielder would include Homer Bailey, which would be a mistake. Yes, it's impossible to find a recent reference to Bailey not appended with "really, really needs a change of scenery." But he's still only 22 and, as recently as 18 months ago, was considered one of the game's top five prospects. How far had you evolved professionally and emotionally by age 22? Me, I ate croutons for breakfast and skipped work to catch up on Cheers. Don't give up on the kid ...

12-09-2008, 12:49 AM
"In 2008, we saw the "good" Dusty."


12-09-2008, 07:01 AM
Even with Dusty Baker involved...:lol: Is Larry a Redszone member?

12-09-2008, 06:26 PM
Even with Dusty Baker involved...:lol: Is Larry a Redszone member?

With his spot-on comments, it makes you wonder.

12-09-2008, 09:36 PM
The pitching appears to be straightening out, but now the offense and defense are a mess. Plus, the Cubs are about to get Jake Peavy. Whoopee. Lets get ready for another exciting season.:rolleyes:

12-09-2008, 10:37 PM
i wouldn't say the offense and defense are a mess. we need hairston back, a reliever, and an outfielder. then we just need some luck ... with dusty ... and injuries ... and rebounds from harang, agon, phillips, etc ... and the young guys to continue to improve .... but that's all we need. :)