PDA

View Full Version : Freel traded for Ramon Hernandez



Pages : 1 [2]

PuffyPig
12-09-2008, 09:34 PM
I'd hate for the Reds to drop out of the bidding or a trade for a real impact player because of the money we took on here.



We tok on $1M for 2009....

I doubt that will be the diffeence between any impact players.

RedlegJake
12-09-2008, 09:35 PM
Jocketty did a few things:

He brought in a guy who can catch and with Hanigan that gives the Reds the best catching they've had in a long time. A very long time.

He evidently didn't take on payroll...all options there remain open.

He moved a guy who has proved he can't stay healthy and was a big - unproductive- salary.

He opened up the third base logjam in the minors a wee bit and did it by dealing the least likely to succeed of the third base prospects.

He added a valuable piece without touching anything resembling a major chip.

This is a good trade all around. It might not be the splashy way to build a team but things ARE improving under Jocketty. Deadwood's getting cleared out, additions that make sense. Just have some patience and some trust, he'll get this turned around.

dougdirt
12-09-2008, 09:37 PM
It doesn't matter if he is a type A because there is no way the Reds will offer arb because if they do they are on the hook for atleast 80% of 8.5 million. There is no way he would get close to that as a FA so he would accept arb.
Unless he comes to Cincinnati and hits like its 2006 all over again....

WMR
12-09-2008, 09:39 PM
Let me just type that I'm perhaps most happy with this deal in that we were able to find a taker for Freel and his contract. Adding in that we capably filled a need is just gravy.

WMR
12-09-2008, 09:41 PM
Depends on the SS.

If it's Janish, then Hernandez hits 7th.

If there's a SS playing anywhere on the field, the SS bats second. :D

M2
12-09-2008, 09:45 PM
It might not be the splashy way to build a team but things ARE improving under Jocketty.

I agree with most everything else you posted, but I just wanted to note that this really is Jocketty's first acquistion. He got filler for Jr. and two arms dealing with injury/recovery for Dunn.

Hernandez is the first guy he's acquired you can confidently assume will get a regular gig.

4256 Hits
12-09-2008, 09:55 PM
Unless he comes to Cincinnati and hits like its 2006 all over again....

Then he will get 10 mil in arb and nobody is giving a 35 year old catcher that kind of money so back to the same boat that he will accept arb.

wally post
12-09-2008, 09:56 PM
Yeah, it's not a big slobberknocker, but he just won a poker hand with a pair of deuces.
Wally likes it. Maybe his next deal will be a full house.

Rojo
12-09-2008, 10:12 PM
Do 32 year old catchers recapture anything?

No big loss, I guess. Still it would've been nice to shed Freel's contract without taking one on or get something with a better upside.

dougdirt
12-09-2008, 10:22 PM
Then he will get 10 mil in arb and nobody is giving a 35 year old catcher that kind of money so back to the same boat that he will accept arb.

Well if he produces that well I don't think anyone will be complaining, even if we don't offer him arbitration.

AmarilloRed
12-09-2008, 10:28 PM
Will the trade of Freel earn Drew Stubbs some extra looks in spring training? I think both he and Dorn should get the chance to make the club out of spring training. I like that a lot better than going after any of the presumed CF free agents. I think that would be the best way to improve our OF depth, even if we assume we are still going after a run producer to play LF going forward.

SteelSD
12-09-2008, 10:50 PM
Equalized for Outs and assuming same offensive performance as 2008, Ramon Hernandez would project to be worth about 18 more Runs than Paul Bako. That might seem good, but I'd suggest only a dumb team would allow Paul Bako to play that much anyway. Ryan Hanigan likely projects a similar gain over Bako, but I think we pretty much knew that Jocketty, Baker, and Co. weren't going to go into 2009 with a rook at C, unless said rook was a big-time prospect (particularly defensively). That being said, Hanigan lacks power, but his IsoD skill set is legit and a combination of the he plus Hernandez may offer the Reds a league-average battery behind the plate offensively if things go right in 2009 (I HATE that qualifier).

Hernandez speaks Spanish, so that's a good fit from a subjective value standpoint. He had the third-highest Caught Stealing rate in baseball for qualified Catchers in 2006. Unfortunately, that was the only season since 2003 in which he threw out more than 28.4% of basestealers. Since 2001, we've seen only 8 qualified Catcher seasons lower than Hernandez' 19.5% success rate from 2008. From a volume standpoint, only 6 qualified Catcher seasons have been posted during that same period allowing more than the 99 Stolen Bases credited to opponents while Hernandez was behind the plate in 2008. Get ready for a basepath barrage from opponents, folks. Just a warning.

Now, onto what was given up...

Thanks for the memories, Mr. Freel. You're one of those little gems teams sometimes find right before they're about to hit their age-prime seasons who've always been undervalued, but who also have skill sets that project and play with max effort. Had you ever actually been able to control your body while playing with said max effort, you'd have been able to avoid many injuries to both yourself, others, and outfield walls (ballparks are people too). However, without max effort you also wouldn't have been able to drive some teams mad on the basepaths after you avoided getting picked off yet again. And I would have missed one of the best catches ever and no one would have ever had a chance to place a baseball previously on the ground into your glove while you unconsciously recorded one of the funniest (and scary) Outs ever.

Justin Turner is one of those guys. MiLB career stats look very good for a 2B (.310 BA/.377 OBP/.445 SLG), but his only special season was 231 AB at Billings in 2006 at age 21. After that, he's been flirting (slightly above and over) with the .800 OPS level through Chatt this year. He's 24 now (as of November 23rd). I don't see anything extremely wrong with Justin Turner.

Brandon Waring strikes out a lot. His IsoD isn't great. He's likely not a 3B. Ok, and that could be a breaking point when it comes to his trade value. Yet, the guy who possesses the most natural power in the Reds system isn't the guy wrongly ranked on both Redszone's and John Sickels' top 10 lists (Juan Francisco, who also isn't likely a 3B in training). It's Brandon Waring.

The Reds just gave up two prospects and one of them was most likely included only to mitigate the salary inequality between Freel and Hernandez. Let's think about that for a second. The Reds just got a player who projects slightly below-average offensively, below-average defensively, they didn't get any salary relief, and they dealt two prospects who probably represent more than what they'd receive even if they ended up receiving picks if Hernandez leaves.

These are not deals I like because they generally hinge on the acquisition somehow becoming much better than he'll likely be. There are other more creative options available so strike this one up as a negative. Might not be the popular position, but it is what it is.

jojo
12-09-2008, 10:56 PM
The Reds just got a player who projects slightly below-average offensively, below-average defensively, they didn't get any salary relief, and they dealt two prospects

That about sums it up. But they get that production for about $4M (RH-RF's salary) and they get it from a more valuable position. Overall it's not a "news alert" moment but it is alright calculus.

4256 Hits
12-09-2008, 11:01 PM
Well if he produces that well I don't think anyone will be complaining, even if we don't offer him arbitration.

I agree completely; I like the trade I just don't think anyone should think there is any chance the Reds are going to get comp picks out of Hernandez.

Screwball
12-09-2008, 11:14 PM
Trent's got quotes from the GMs and Dusty. I think you'll find it ever so slightly more coherent than Fay's:



Reds G.M. Walt Jocketty

"This was a trade that Andy and I have been working on for quite a while and finally got it done late last night. We set our off season objectives, one of the big things for us was to try and acquire a quality catcher. We felt there was something that we were lacking last year. We have a young catcher in Ryan Hanigan who I think will help a lot this year and learn with Ramon Hernandez.

"But for us Ramon was a perfect fit for our club because he provides good leadership, got very good reports that sent several scouts out to watch him this year, and he provides good defense, handles a staff well, and will give us a good offense, and in our park, we think he'll have a very good year.

"It's something that we're excited about. I talked to Ramon a little bit ago. Dusty spoke with him and he's very excited to come over to the Reds and see how everything works out.

"But the other thing for us, in trading Ryan Freel, Ryan was hurt quite a bit this year, and when I spoke to him, I told him that unfortunately I didn't get a chance to see the real Ryan Freel play this year, but I expect him to do well for the Orioles and he'll be a big part of their success this year.

"And the two young guys we gave up were very difficult to give up, and as good a scouting director and farm director we have in Chris Buckley and Ryan Reynolds, they always hate to give up the younger players, but they understand that it's important for us to improve at the Major League level and try and win up there.

"The Orioles are getting three very good players and quality people, and in return we're getting a big fit for us. We think Ramon Hernandez is the right piece to help improve our club for next year."

* On Hernandez's frustrations on the field last year: "Yeah, that was part of our report that we got from our scouts, and not from just one. We did notice that they had seen him in the past and saw him again this year and felt that there was probably some level of frustration that he was experiencing, and we talked about it.

"I did some research on it with other people that I know that have had him and got great reports, so we do think that a change of scenery will help him immensely. We've got a pretty good pitching staff, and he's a guy that I think will help develop that staff, work well with the staff, and I think he'll have renewed energy, or hope that he will, and I know Dusty talked to him a little bit about that today.

"We think that a change of scenery will help him a lot."

Reds manager Dusty Baker

"The Ramon that I know was in Oakland as a young player. I saw him handle that staff up there in Oakland when I was with the Giants. We played him a number of times in spring training and in the Bay Bridge series and inner league play. So I think he's going to be perfect for our team. We have a young staff, and he has taught some very good pitchers and very good staffs in the past."

Orioles GM Andy McPhail

"Ryan Freel, if any of you have suffered through my talks in Baltimore, you've heard a lot about effort, energy and enthusiasm. Those are the three things as a franchise we want to instill in our players. It is hard to think of a poster child that more represents those things for a Major League player than Ryan Freel, so we were excited to have him introduce a right handed bat that can play some center field and the out fields and give Luke Scott a platoon in left. And then two infield prospects who we like that we need to add inventory and depth at that position are in our franchise.

"It was a delight to deal with Walt. I've never been quite chiselled so much as I was with Walt over a period of grinding me over what should have been announced days ago, but Walt insisted on a pound of flesh and five, which he got. But I do think this is a trade that makes perfect sense for both franchises, and we're delighted to have it.

"The last thing I will say is I know I've watched Dusty Baker at work, and I know this is the perfect kind of player that Dusty is going to have a tremendous impact on, and I think you're going to see Ramon give quite an offensive year in a ballpark that is really favorable towards him."

* On Freel's health: "sA it turned out, Walt and I had been talking about this trade, but in the period where we were talking about the trade Wayne Krivsky joined our organization as a special assistant. He comes with a great deal of information about that franchise. He and obviously our doctors and trainers certified to where Ryan was physically. I talked to Ryan today, as did Dave Trembley, and he said he's running 100 percent, feels good, ready to go, our doctors vetted his condition and are comfortable that he's ready to go, and we're delighted and excited about having him."


http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

I had completely forgot that Krivsky is now with the Orioles' organization. I'm sure that came in quite handy for McPhail.

Spring~Fields
12-09-2008, 11:14 PM
I am pleased with the move.

I like that Freel, his contract, injuries and maybe a something that might have been going on behind the scenes are gone.

That the catching is shored up and that we might not see Valentine back which is moving forward in my mind. I know it is an intangible, maybe not even that but, I wanted to see some of the past moved that was a part of the losing atmosphere with the Reds and this potentially helps in that direction forward.

I especially like the fact that Jocketty has still held on to the pitching and pitching prospects and still has room and chips to work with, leaving him options with trading chips and or cash to work with.

I think that this catcher can help the offense a bit, over a Ross, and certainly a Bako, in that we often seen them not come through and this guy might add a win or two by coming through where they wouldn’t have and maybe taking away an easy out to make things less easy on the other side.

Kc61
12-09-2008, 11:15 PM
A few observations

Not thrilled that the Reds gave up Turner in this deal, I liked him very much as a future Red. And Waring, who wasn't very hyped this year, also had value.

Still, hard to imagine the O's would have made the trade straight up for Freel.

Reds strength these days is in the minor leaguers, the prospects, so I'd expect them to play a big role in any trades this off season. Reds don't have a lot of major league talent to trade.

Economics obviously had a big role. Reds probably gave up more talent because they received money to offset the salary difference.

Not too many starting catchers out there for trade. This was a tough find for the Reds, to fill an obvious hole. And they paid a price giving up two pretty good prospects.

Bill
12-09-2008, 11:15 PM
I was pleased the day the Reds picked up Freel.

He maximized his potential initially and the Reds now have turned the pickup into a stop gap starting catcher. Not bad considering the initial cost/risk.

Krusty
12-09-2008, 11:18 PM
Like I said before, it is a good deal for both sides. No longterm commitment moneywise yet it solidifies the position.

So Walt, about that righthanded hitter for the middle of the order......

Rojo
12-09-2008, 11:26 PM
I am pleased with the move.

I like that Freel, his contract, injuries and maybe a something that might have been going on behind the scenes are gone.

That the catching is shored up and that we might not see Valentine back which is moving forward in my mind.

I see this a lot. Forget who we add, the important thing is making our un-favorite players go away.

wally post
12-09-2008, 11:31 PM
If he matches last year's stats - is there anyone on the rangers who we could have received for the same? No. Good trade that fills a need - Freel was blocking and I wish him well in Baltimore. The prospects?... it would've been more with anyone else. Dude speaks Spanish and has caught some pretty good pitchers.

corkedbat
12-09-2008, 11:45 PM
Reds strength these days is in the minor leaguers, the prospects, so I'd expect them to play a big role in any trades this off season. Reds don't have a lot of major league talent to trade.



I've said for a year now that the Reds improving farm system will start to pay dividends, not just in therms of funneling talent to the big club, but in adding chips to trade for needs.

I think that today is just the beginning and it will only get better over the next couple of seasons.

corkedbat
12-09-2008, 11:49 PM
Like I said before, it is a good deal for both sides. No longterm commitment moneywise yet it solidifies the position.

So Walt, about that righthanded hitter for the middle of the order......

One year, Big Money for Manny :D

oneupper
12-09-2008, 11:52 PM
I like this deal. Freel is a nice guy and all, but an absolute disaster on the basepaths, which many times negated his relatively good OBP.
Freel was injured for most of 2008 and 2007. I would not be surprised if he spent a good chunk of 2009 on the DL. He was a liability and a costly one at that, after he got that ill-advised extension in early 2007.

Ramon Hernandez is an emotional guy who was MVP of the 2006 Caribbean Series. He's a fellow Venezuelan, so I guess I'm a bit biased. According the numbers he should contribute. He can play a little 1B, too so he can spell Votto once in a while.

This move makes the team better...but we still have Dusty. :(

fearofpopvol1
12-10-2008, 12:15 AM
I seriously doubt Turner or Waring turn into anything. At some point, you're going to have to give up some youngsters to get major league players.

backbencher
12-10-2008, 12:15 AM
I agree with most everything else you posted, but I just wanted to note that this really is Jocketty's first acquistion. He got filler for Jr. and two arms dealing with injury/recovery for Dunn.

Hernandez is the first guy he's acquired you can confidently assume will get a regular gig.

Given the cash outlays, I'd count Alonso, and perhaps the Caribbean kids, as acquisitions. It's too early to assess them, of course.

I'd also suggest that the trades of Dunn and Griffey are looking solid in hindsight. No major acquisitions, but subsequent events seem to be confirming that WJ got the best available value.

Will M
12-10-2008, 12:16 AM
I've said for a year now that the Reds improving farm system will start to pay dividends, not just in therms of funneling talent to the big club, but in adding chips to trade for needs.

I think that today is just the beginning and it will only get better over the next couple of seasons.

Bingo!

Lets say a solid catcher was on the free agent market. The Reds have to pay top dollar and go several years. This way we can deal from the depth we have in the minors and not be saddled with a potential albtaross (think guys like Milton, Zito, etc).

The guys we traded may make the bigs or be nothing. in the old days they would have been top 10 prospects for the Reds. Now they aren't in the top 20.

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 12:18 AM
pretty amazing. we get rid of Freel and improve the team at the same time. and we didn't really lose any key prospects.

Yes, so far the offseason has been very good. The only possible misstep might've been offering Weathers arb, but maybe that will end up being good too.

Excellent trade by Walt. Great to get something useful for Freel. Amazing he could move the contract at all.

WVPacman
12-10-2008, 12:20 AM
Somebody help me out here I hav'nt watched a Baltimore game since Ripken retired.Who is this Ramon Hernandez player? From the few pages that I have read on here he seems to be a decent player but bad defensivly.I seen he is spanish and we all know he will put up some numbers at GABP but do you think the main reason we got him was for the young pitchers we have.

Oh and can he call a game good,and keep the pitcher calm??

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 12:20 AM
OK, how excited should I be here?

Last year, Hernandez hit .257 with 15 HR and 65 RBI. He threw out less than 20% of runners attempting to steal. For $8 mill? He's a .263 lifetime hitter with a .326 OBP.

Look at it this way, with Freel being shed and 1 million from Baltimore, it only adds 3 million to next year's payroll. It solves the catching problem for next year for only 3 million. Plus, Freel's roster spot might be available for someone more useful.

Rounding Third
12-10-2008, 12:21 AM
Are they only giving us $1MM? I thought they were giving $3MM?

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 12:30 AM
The Reds didn't spend any extra money to get Hernandez, the O's made up the difference.

Wow.. that makes it a totally excellent trade. Dump Freel and get Hernandez and don't bump the payroll at all? Excellent.

Freel is battling injuries, I question how many at bats they are really going to get out of him. IMO, Freel is more likely to decline (he's been declining).

Classic Jocketty move of picking up a pretty talented "troublemaker" and hoping the scenery change will work wonders.

I'm excited now. I can't wait to see what Walt will do next. I like the message that the Reds are going to improve the team as they wait for more youngsters to arrive. Maybe the Reds will be tolerable to watch next year.

HeatherC1212
12-10-2008, 12:32 AM
It has been SO amusing for me to go back and forth reading the Orioles board and this board all afternoon and evening today. I don't know which group of fans is happier, LOL :laugh: Orioles fans are thrilled to get rid of Ramon and his contract (even though the O's are covering a bit of that contract) as well as to get some prospects for their depleted farm system. Most Reds fans seem to be happy that we now have a catcher who can actually hit a little and to be rid of Freel's big contract. As a fan of both teams, I'm feeling pretty content for the most part because it seems like this is going to be one of those rare trades that works well for everyone. It was nice to read some comments from both GMs about Ramon needing a change of scenery because I feel the exact same way and hope that he does well for us next year. He's a pretty good guy and I think he'll enjoy playing in the NL against some new teams. It will be quite different for him to look at his new division and see the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Astros, and Pirates and to not see the beast that is the AL East division of the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and TB Rays. That could be a shock to his system, LOL :laugh:

Yeah, this has been a crazy day and quite a contrast on the two boards, LOL :lol:

BCubb2003
12-10-2008, 12:39 AM
Yeah, this has been a crazy day and quite a contrast on the two boards, LOL :lol:

As somebody else said, do the Orioles fans know about Farney?

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 12:42 AM
Wayne Krivsky joined our organization as a special assistant. He comes with a great deal of information about that franchise. He and obviously our doctors and trainers certified to where Ryan was physically. I talked to Ryan today, as did Dave Trembley, and he said he's running 100 percent, feels good, ready to go, our doctors vetted his condition and are comfortable that he's ready to go, and we're delighted and excited about having him."

I wonder if Wayne just got Majed again :lol:

I just find it hard to believe that Freel is really 100% at this point. Freel would say he's 100% right after a leg amuptation.

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 12:46 AM
As somebody else said, do the Orioles fans know about Farney?


Do the Baltimore Area cops? :D

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 12:46 AM
Are they only giving us $1MM? I thought they were giving $3MM?

Sorry, the intial post said 1 million, then later someone said 3 million (although that is not confirmed).

I was replying to a very early post in the thread and didn't know the $$ was corrected.

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 12:50 AM
I wonder if Wayne just got Majed again :lol:

I just find it hard to believe that Freel is really 100% at this point. Freel would say he's 100% right after a leg amuptation.

Even if he's not 100%, he'll probably run through a fence or into another outfielder and have plenty of downtime to get to 100% while his new war wounds heal.

WVPacman
12-10-2008, 01:04 AM
I will difently miss Freel's effort in a game.Yes sometimes it would cost him but on many occasions his effort helped us out.The trade was the right thing to do IF Hernandez plays even decent and can call a game good plus it gets rid of his contract.I will still miss Freel playing as hard as he could out there for the Reds and the reds fans.

Heres to you Freel :beerme:Have a great time in Baltimore and keep playing like you always do HARD!!!!!!!!:thumbup:

HeatherC1212
12-10-2008, 01:19 AM
As somebody else said, do the Orioles fans know about Farney?

The ones on the Orioles board know about him and most of them think it's hilarious. At the very least, they believe they'll be entertained by the guy, LOL :p:

gm
12-10-2008, 01:21 AM
Ryan Freel was happy for a fresh start but still getting his mind around getting traded:

"A piece of me is excited. But I'm upset because of my relationship with the fans in Cincinnati. It's been tough. But you can't look at the past. I'm still playing baseball. But it's kind of an emotional time. I'm torn."

Is Farney the "piece" of Freel that's excited?

Ryan's goofy character will be missed, even though he did play ball like a spastic weasel. Never a dull moment, during some non-descript seasons

Could this trade be a poor man's version of the Hamilton-Volquez deal? (Win-win)

Topcat
12-10-2008, 01:39 AM
I totally am loving this deal, salary wise it is a wash and prospect wise I can not believe how little we had to give up! Add to Freel's salary loss this deal was fantastic and anyone who is skeptical on it, is completely nuts. I also add to the glowing approval rating on this deal by Redzoner's as further proof this deal was great. A rare event has happened here today and should be seen as nothing but a positive thing.

dfs
12-10-2008, 01:58 AM
I don't get the happy-face on this one. As reported the money isn't a wash. The reds are on the hook for 8 million for Ramon and were going to pay freel 3.

While neither Freel, Turner or Waring represent prime assets, it's just too much to give up for a player like this. Ramon Hernandez has been outhit by Greg Zaun over the last two years.

It's too much talent and money to give up for a player that doesn't drive you closer to being really good. He's 33 years old and a decent candidate to be out of the game in 2 years.

The O's won this one for sure.

redsfan4445
12-10-2008, 02:02 AM
per traderumouers we either got 2 or 3 million along with Hernandez, NOT 1 milion

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 02:24 AM
I don't get the happy-face on this one. As reported the money isn't a wash. The reds are on the hook for 8 million for Ramon and were going to pay freel 3.

.

I thought Freel was to make $4.5M this year?

We've got plenty of Utility-types and can probably find more if we need them. I loved having Freel while he was there, but he was owed more than he was worth, considering he's more and more likely to be on the DL or dinged up from one thing or another,

Hernandez may not be the best C on the market, but I like him better than Laird, I like him better than any of the three we had last year behind the plate and I'm very comforable with what we gave up.

I like this deal, partly because I have a feeling that this is one of those cases where a change of scenery helps a bunch. I think that Walt did a great job, especially considering the market and the catchers that were apparently available.

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 02:27 AM
nm

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 02:28 AM
per traderumouers we either got 2 or 3 million along with Hernandez, NOT 1 milion


If Walt got more than $1M, then he did a hell of a job. I think that may be what the Baltimore GM meant about wearing him down.

Krusty
12-10-2008, 03:03 AM
Look at it this way, with Freel being shed and 1 million from Baltimore, it only adds 3 million to next year's payroll. It solves the catching problem for next year for only 3 million. Plus, Freel's roster spot might be available for someone more useful.


Do you think they can sign Hairston with what they were paying Freel?

Mario-Rijo
12-10-2008, 03:22 AM
Just for the sake of argument can we all at least get some of the well know facts straight about this deal if nothing else.

#1 - Ryan Freel was due to make 4 Million
#2 - Ramon was due to make 8 million, has a club option for '10 at 8.5 million with a buyout of 1 Million (paid to him if we decline the option).
#3 - We were going to have to pay for a catcher with real money at some point.
#4 - Ryan Freel was making too much money for a UT/platoon player
#5 - We have yet to get a confirmation of how much money was sent to us, however we do know that it had to go to the commissioners office for approval due to the money involved being more than 1 million.

So we know for a fact that we got an experienced catcher who we will have to pay only 3 million at most for over our previous budget. We rid ourselves of a contract & player that most here felt needed to go in the process. I'd say that's a wise move especially when you consider that 1 of the 2 prospects will likely never even reach the majors. The other player is debatable but like many have stated we got an upgrade at a position of need and you gotta give up something to get that.

(*This part is opinion*)
Not too mention that Hernandez could reasonably be expected to have better offensive and defensive #'s here with a better staff throwing to him, the park, playing for a future contract, possibly playing for a winning team (depending on other moves) etc. It's interesting that people get on Hernandez for his defensive stats but fail to mention that his decline was right in line with the decline of the staff he was working with. Pitchers do have an effect on their catchers defensive #'s.

WVRedsFan
12-10-2008, 03:30 AM
I'm so pleased I can hardly contain myself. We got rid of the attraction of Freel's hustle and in return we got a solid catcher who just might hit sometimes. How long has it been since we had one of those? Last year we were stuck with three catchers for most of the season--Ross (and his close to .200 average and his ability to muff catches), Valentin (who simply needed to be selling cars or starring in porn films), and Bako (who reminded me of a player on the 1962 Mets--lovable but not very good). We have gone from that to a solid major leaguer catcher and a promising rookie who will be an adequate backup. Not bad.

As for Freel, he was the epitome of what many lust for--the Pete Rose syndrome. Yes, he hustled, sometimes to the extreme, and didn't play very smart. He'd dive for a ball that was uncatchable or if it was he'd do it for effect (and some who panned Edmunds for that same thing, loved Freel for it), and then make a bone-headed move on the bases to take away runs. Managers loved him because of the hustle, and felt compelled to play him despite the fact that his OBP shrunk as he got older and steady play diminished his effectiveness. Good riddance. Wayne gave him a primo contract and now has him back. Thanks, Wayne!

Good move by Walt, who knows baseball talent when he sees it. I'm sure other moves will be made to shore up the outfield, but I can't help but be giddy about this. Besides the salary relief we get, we can give Farney to Baltimore and it's fitting. Yes, he made some plays, but often his minuses were more than his positives. Good luck to him and the Reds. I have a feeling the Reds will come out the winner in this transaction. We won't mis his 30 RBI's or his bad swings at bad balls, but the hope that there is another Pete Rose will continue. Freel wasn't Pete. Time for a new agenda.

WVRedsFan
12-10-2008, 03:32 AM
Do you think they can sign Hairston with what they were paying Freel?

Yes they can. If we want him. My feling is that we're aiming higher at this point. Injury-prone outfielders are a dime a dozen regardless of how they perform when they are healthy. My guess is that we are looking elsewhere. Just a hunch.

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2008, 03:35 AM
I will be really suprised if Hernandez has that line in 09. BABIP data has him pretty unlucky last year, and even if you don't buy that he's coming over from the AL East where the other four teams in his division had ERA+s of 122, 116, 115, and 104.

Favorite stat of the night. I didn't realize just how tough the pitching staffs of the other teams in the AL East had last year...

Mario-Rijo
12-10-2008, 03:39 AM
Yes they can. If we want him. My feling is that we're aiming higher at this point. Injury-prone outfielders are a dime a dozen regardless of how they perform when they are healthy. My guess is that we are looking elsewhere. Just a hunch.

I think he fits what they want in a UT player, he can play a little SS and a little CF and hit at the top of the lineup. I like Hairston when he is on and healthy, he plays the game with intelligence and fire and isn't really awful in any one way (sans his arm).

That said I kinda hope they don't get him so it would then force them to get a good SS who can hit at the top of the lineup. Ya know they are hedging their SS & CF bets with Hairston, it's obvious and so is the fact that they want both positions filled.

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 03:40 AM
How does Camden Yards profile as far as being a Hitter's/Pitcher's park?

His previous two stops (Oakland & San Diego) were both pitcher's parks, IIRC.

Mario-Rijo
12-10-2008, 03:54 AM
How does Camden Yards profile as far as being a Hitter's/Pitcher's park?

His previous two stops (Oakland & San Diego) were both pitcher's parks, IIRC.

Camden usually plays slightly more as a hitters park IIRC but close to nuetral.

Camden

Field dimensions Left Field - 333 ft (101.5 m)
Left-Center - 364 ft (110.9 m)
Left-Center (deep) - 410 ft (125 m)
Center Field - 400 ft (121.9 m) (Not posted)
Right-Center - 373 ft (113.7 m)
Right Field - 318 ft (96.9 m)

GABP

Field dimensions Left Field - 328 ft (100 m)
Left-Center - 379 ft (116 m)
Center Field - 404 ft (123 m)
Right-Center - 370 ft (113 m)
Right Field - 325 ft (99 m)
Backstop - 55 ft (17 m)

Hernandez hit chart (http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerHitChart?categoryId=85294)

Screwball
12-10-2008, 03:58 AM
How does Camden Yards profile as far as being a Hitter's/Pitcher's park?

His previous two stops (Oakland & San Diego) were both pitcher's parks, IIRC.

Over the last 5 years ('04-'08), it's kinda been all over the place. It's had overall PF's of 1.077 (7th highest), 0.876 (28th highest), 0.985 (17th highest), 1.109 (6th highest), and 1.051 (10th) from '04-'08 respectively. The last couple years it's given a pretty significant edge to the hitter. Yet when Hernandez had his best year as an Oriole ('06 - 111 OPS+) Camden was giving a slight edge to the pitcher.

Not sure what to make of this, but hopefully the watered down NL pitching wil give him a boost, because it looks as though Camden serves up the longball as frequently as GABP.

Mario-Rijo
12-10-2008, 04:03 AM
Over the last 5 years ('04-'08), it's kinda been all over the place. It's had overall PF's of 1.077 (7th highest), 0.876 (28th highest), 0.985 (17th highest), 1.109 (6th highest), and 1.051 (10th) from '04-'08 respectively. The last couple years it's given a pretty significant edge to the hitter. Yet when Hernandez had his best year as an Oriole ('06 - 111 OPS+) Camden was giving a slight edge to the pitcher.

Not sure what to make of this, but hopefully the watered down NL pitching wil give him a boost, because it looks as though Camden serves up the longball as frequently as GABP.

Screwball, got a link? I need to add that to my list of references, it's one I don't have.

mth123
12-10-2008, 04:21 AM
Probably the last one in but here goes.

In a thin catching market I think Hernandez is ok. I think the combination of the GABP, the NL Central and a little better luck will improve his offensive numbers to the point of being better than average for a catcher. His defense is only fair, but that is gold glove caliber compared with just about anything we've had around here for a long time. The legacy of poor receivers in Cincy includes Eddie Taubensee (a DH back there), Jason Larue (good arm, but I didn't like anything else about him defensively), Paul Bako (A "defensive specialist" who seemed below average in every way from what I saw) and the worst of the bunch David Ross. Hernandez will look pretty good in comparison if you look beyond the Caught Stealing numbers. He won't put up Larue or Ross numbers in that area, but he'll be a better receiver (more important IMO) and better hitter.

As for what the Reds gave up, I think Freel could be missed more than we think. I was pretty early to the party in calling Freel way over-rated by some and his running game (or better termed his little leagueesque get caught stealing and picked-off a lot game) was a real negative the last few years. But, he did have genuine utility in his abilities to play a decent OF, fill in elsewhere and above all get on base. The Reds would have probably done ok with a Dickerson/Freel platoon leading off in CF, so unless they bring in a clear upgrade that pushes Dickerson to the bench, I think they'll be hard pressed to find a better RH half for that job. Freel probably wasn't worth what he was going to cost the Reds in 2008, but he was the best guy on the roster for that role.

The rest of the deal is pretty contingent on how much money the Reds got in exchange for selling off some guys to make up the dollar difference. If its $3 Million, I think the Reds did well. If its only $1 Million, not so much. 3B is a crowded spot and Brandon Waring was far down the depth chart there. He has enough power to be interesting in a lets see how he develops kind of way, but IMO he's a long shot to ever be a big leaguer. Turner is a 2B who seems like he's a decent defender who can hit at the spot. The Reds bench and upper minors is filled with guys who the Reds hope can play an adequate 2B (Keppinger, Rosales, Valaika, Richar, Frazier maybe even Wilkin Castillo) but the Reds probably just dealt the only one who we know really can. He's still far from a sure thing and has less upside than many of the other prospects, but Turner can be a decent major league role player some day IMO. If the Reds got $3 Million it was probably worth dealing Turner to fill the catcher spot while hanging onto some payroll flexibility. If it was only a million, I'd probably hang on to Turner and just pay the extra million. The Reds will spend that much on bonuses for lesser players in the draft or some international signing.

In any event, I think the major league team is improved by this deal and the guys given up probably don't remove any of the team's trading power. I'd have preferred hanging on to Turner and dealing some one who is a lesser guy like Richar or Keppinger, but its ok. Decent deal on the whole.

Krusty
12-10-2008, 06:51 AM
You want to know the beauty of all this is? Of all the trade rumors and proposals that occurs on this site, did anyone actually mentioned Hernandez as a possible catcher for the Reds?

I'm waiting for Uncle Walt to knock me on my butt with that righthanded hitter for the middle of the order.

mth123
12-10-2008, 07:00 AM
You want to know the beauty of all this is? Of all the trade rumors and proposals that occurs on this site, did anyone actually mentioned Hernandez as a possible catcher for the Reds?

I'm waiting for Uncle Walt to knock me on my butt with that righthanded hitter for the middle of the order.

Several people did. We've been talking about him since last spring. Over that time he's gone from a guy we really wanted to a guy who we were lukewarm to. I think most prefer a long term solution. I generally hate giving up anything for stopgaps, but in this situation the guys the Reds gave up didn't cause much pain so it was a good deal.

I hope SS is next.

Krusty
12-10-2008, 07:15 AM
Several people did. We've been talking about him since last spring. Over that time he's gone from a guy we really wanted to a guy who we were lukewarm to. I think most prefer a long term solution. I generally hate giving up anything for stopgaps, but in this situation the guys the Reds gave up didn't cause much pain so it was a good deal.

I hope SS is next.


They did? I must have been sleeping on the computer. Anyways if you want young talent, you have to give up young talent in return......see Hamilton for Volquez. Still, a righthanded hitter for the middle of the order, leadoff hitter and lefty bullpen remains on the list. I still think the Dye for Bailey deal will still go down.

Screwball
12-10-2008, 08:06 AM
Screwball, got a link? I need to add that to my list of references, it's one I don't have.

Yeah, sure. Here ya go: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008

Very handy site, esp. when discussing trades.

jojo
12-10-2008, 08:37 AM
(*This part is opinion*)
Not too mention that Hernandez could reasonably be expected to have better offensive and defensive #'s here with a better staff throwing to him, the park, playing for a future contract, possibly playing for a winning team (depending on other moves) etc. It's interesting that people get on Hernandez for his defensive stats but fail to mention that his decline was right in line with the decline of the staff he was working with. Pitchers do have an effect on their catchers defensive #'s.

The Reds basically got an aging catcher with declining offensive skills (Orioles Park isn't exactly Petco) and a defensive game that basically looks to be declining faster than the price of homes near a GM plant. There probably is some room for upside with his bat though. Mostly though, the Reds get a recognizable name to stick behind the plate. Given lousy defense is more like internal hemorrhaging than a Freddy Kruger moment, I suspect many will be happy if he hits .270 and he actually catches throws to the plate (in other words some might think this deal is much more meaningful than I think it probably is).

This isn't a criticism-the calculus basically works on this one IMHO (the '09 roster is likely improved though the question is how much?)-but what happened to a new found commitment to improving the defense (kicked the tires on Dye and pulled the trigger on Hernandez)?

remdog
12-10-2008, 08:40 AM
Nice job, Walt.

Now, go get us a SS, a big bat in LF and a right-handed hitting OF to team with Dickerson in CF and the Red might actually be in the running for a playoff spot.

Rem

redsmetz
12-10-2008, 09:08 AM
This isn't a criticism-the calculus basically works on this one IMHO (the '09 roster is likely improved though the question is how much?)-but what happened to a new found commitment to improving the defense (kicked the tires on Dye and pulled the trigger on Hernandez)?

I don't know the answer to the question I've got. Trades don't happen in a vacuuum. Given the market, who was available at a reasonable price that would meet the defensive criterion you posit? Looking at the free agent class, every catcher there is 31 or older (Josh Bard and Michael Barrett are the youngest at 31 and 32 respectively).

On a trade standpoint, who was available without giving up more than we wanted to give? Again, I don't know the answer to that question myself.

Clearly moving Freel's contract filling a position of need is a good one. Doesn't necessarily help with the win/loss bottom line, but it does eliminate a payroll issue. That's not a big plus, IMO, but it doesn't hurt.

The hope is (and I acknowledge it's only that for now) is that greener grass will give him a boost offensively. As with any player coming over, that remains to be seen.

On the catching side, the only possible plus is rather intangible. Will he be better as a receiver for our staff? Will he call a good game and give that extra help to make our pitchers better? I guess there's some metric somewhere that can analyze that, but again we'll have to see.

Jocketty has filled one need, and I'm not negative on the move, but the positive is just slight. Time to move forward and address the other needs during the off-season.

lollipopcurve
12-10-2008, 09:24 AM
The Reds basically got an aging catcher with declining offensive skills (Orioles Park isn't exactly Petco) and a defensive game that basically looks to be declining faster than the price of homes near a GM plant. There probably is some room for upside with his bat though. Mostly though, the Reds get a recognizable name to stick behind the plate. Given lousy defense is more like internal hemorrhaging than a Freddy Kruger moment, I suspect many will be happy if he hits .270 and he actually catches throws to the plate (in other words some might think this deal is much more meaningful than I think it probably is).

This isn't a criticism-the calculus basically works on this one IMHO (the '09 roster is likely improved though the question is how much?)-but what happened to a new found commitment to improving the defense (kicked the tires on Dye and pulled the trigger on Hernandez)?

What has been clearly explained by both principals in the deal -- Jocketty and McPhail -- is that Hernandez may benefit from a change of scenery. He was not real motivated in Baltimore in 08, apparently, so it remains to be seen to what extent his performance, particularly on the defensive side, is attributable to declining skills. Factor in that he'll be playing for a contract and I think one can be reasonably optimistic that Hernandez will be better in 09.

BuckeyeRedleg
12-10-2008, 09:37 AM
I don't know if this has been mentioned here or not, but another thing to consider regarding the SB/CS issue with Hernandez is that he had a staff in Baltimore with low strikeout totals. The leader of the staff had what, 120 K's (Guthrie)?

With the Reds, that has many hard throwing, bat-missing pitchers, wouldn't that take care of some of that issue?

jojo
12-10-2008, 09:46 AM
What has been clearly explained by both principals in the deal -- Jocketty and McPhail -- is that Hernandez may benefit from a change of scenery. He was not real motivated in Baltimore in 08, apparently, so it remains to be seen to what extent his performance, particularly on the defensive side, is attributable to declining skills. Factor in that he'll be playing for a contract and I think one can be reasonably optimistic that Hernandez will be better in 09.

Why does his motivation improve by becoming a Red? Also, while he is in a contract year but he's also a year older. I don't think it's legitimate to throw out his numbers last year and project him like he deserves an attitude mulligan. Even if it was more attitude than aging (which I think is a tough sell given what we know about catchers), it's all part of his history.

blumj
12-10-2008, 09:50 AM
Well, if I remember right, he missed some time injured in '07, but I don't remember if it was something that might have effected his throwing. But most of us could probably steal bases off Daniel Cabrera, no matter who was catching him.

bucksfan2
12-10-2008, 09:54 AM
I like this trade quite a bit actually. I think getting out from Freel's contract was a big bonus. When Freel is on what he brings to the table is important, he just hasn't been on for much since he signed his new deal. Even when Freel was on he needed to tone down his aggressiveness in order to maximize his productivity. Freel said that was impossible to do.

Freel has shown over the course of a few years that he isn't a starter. His body can't handle his style of play. That means he becomes a utility player, a valuable utility player, but a $4.5M utility player. Freel represents the type of player who should be cut loose when his contract comes due and replaced by someone in the minors. He is the type of guy who you let someone else take the gamble with.

Freel makes somewhat sense for Baltimore if he can maintain his .350 OBP. If he does the O's can DH him from time to time to save on his wear and tear. It may just be the best case scenario for Freel. The Reds on the other hand get a position of need in Hernandez for basically the same salary as Freel. It allows the Reds to take a better look at Hannigan under less pressure. If Hannigan proves he can't be the #1 catcher the Reds have the opportunity to bring Hernandez back, albeit at a high price.

Turner and Warring to me are two throw ins. Warring is probably 3rd or 4th on the Reds minor league 3b depth chart. I would move Fraizer, Soto, and Francisco ahead of Warring at that position. Turner may have some potential but he isn't moving Phillips aside and cant play SS. He is the type of minor leaguer you should be able to replace for cheap.

Heath
12-10-2008, 10:02 AM
Looks like that the Orioles farm system is ranking middle or lower depending on how the darts fly.

The Reds basically gave up a spare part & couple of B prospects for a starter at a position that was in need.

It might be a long term issue, if only Waring & Turner turn out to be studs.

Just a basic roll the dice deal. Typical Jocketty.

lollipopcurve
12-10-2008, 10:20 AM
Why does his motivation improve by becoming a Red? Also, while he is in a contract year but he's also a year older. I don't think it's legitimate to throw out his numbers last year and project him like he deserves an attitude mulligan. Even if it was more attitude than aging (which I think is a tough sell given what we know about catchers), it's all part of his history.

No doubt that coming off a 133 game season and being 1 year older Hernandez could be a candidate to slip. I'd like to see him used in a kind of platoon with Hanigan, maybe 70/30 or 60/40 so that both will stay fresh. I do think it's significant that he's playing for a new deal/option for big money -- I put more credence in that than in his being a few months older than his strong 08 2nd half.

If he does slip markedly, they aren't on the hook for much. This is low-risk, pretty high reward.



Why does his motivation improve by becoming a Red?

He's out of Baltimore. Word was he did not have a great relationship with Tremblay.

There was no need to go out and get a defensively oriented catcher. Hanigan showed well behind the plate -- and Hernandez is probably in the realm of average. Far more important to get a guy who can also hit, not just for the everyday lineup but for the bench when Hanigan plays (provided they carry Castillo too).

princeton
12-10-2008, 10:28 AM
Reds might have to use a no-hit shortstop and couldn't afford to give up the catcher spot in the lineup, too.

in spite of the overpriced market, WJ got a need catcher fairly painlessly. :thumbup:

Turner/Freel are gamers. Walt tends to trade for guys that are supposedly not gamers. seems to work for him.

Chip R
12-10-2008, 10:36 AM
I think getting a major league catcher for Freel - who was supposedly untradeable - is a good deal. Hernandez and Hanigan will split the playing time probably about 70-30. Hernandez' contract ends after this year and the Reds have a full season to see if Hanigan can be the #1 catcher in 2010.

I wouldn't say signing Hariston is imperative but with Freel gone, he's no longer redundant.

RedlegJake
12-10-2008, 10:46 AM
I think getting a major league catcher for Freel - who was supposedly untradeable - is a good deal. Hernandez and Hanigan will split the playing time probably about 70-30. Hernandez' contract ends after this year and the Reds have a full season to see if Hanigan can be the #1 catcher in 2010.

I wouldn't say signing Hariston is imperative but with Freel gone, he's no longer redundant.

Chip that last point is a real key to this deal. What Jocketty did in one trade was help the minor league logjam at third base and open up the better of two options in house (well, if he can get Hairston signed) to play OF, as well as add the catching help that was needed and he did it by adding a guy who can be a plus bat at his position.

blumj
12-10-2008, 10:51 AM
Reds might have to use a no-hit shortstop and couldn't afford to give up the catcher spot in the lineup, too.

in spite of the overpriced market, WJ got a need catcher fairly painlessly. :thumbup:

Turner/Freel are gamers. Walt tends to trade for guys that are supposedly not gamers. seems to work for him.
The veteran catching market actually appears to be more of a buyer's market so far.

TRF
12-10-2008, 11:16 AM
Hairston's 2008 better be for real, minus the injuries part. He'll be needed as the RH platoon partner with Dickerson. Really, I think he is Freel-lite. a bit more brittle and far less balls to the wall.

I'm really hoping that unless Jocketty gets a top SS that Janish has a ridiculous ST. AGon probably won't be ready, and the Reds need more than "Fall Down" Kepp at SS.

If I hear 1 rumor about Juan Pierre I swear to god I'll become a Cubs Fan. LF is a serious hole at this point. MAYBE Alonzo or Frazier tears up ST and forces the Reds hand. Personally, I'm rooting for Dorn.

Secretly, ok no so secretly I notice Adam Dunn is available.

BRM
12-10-2008, 11:19 AM
If I hear 1 rumor about Juan Pierre I swear to god I'll become a Cubs Fan.

:laugh:

Easy there, killer. You survived the likes of Juan Castro, Corey Patterson and Paul Bako. You can survive the Juan Pierre era too.

TRF
12-10-2008, 11:21 AM
:laugh:

Easy there, killer. You survived the likes of Juan Castro, Corey Patterson and Paul Bako. You can survive the Juan Pierre era too.

I'm not joking. I'll jump. I'm a huge Rich Harden fan, and I actually have a cubs hat that I usually just abuse.

I hate Dustyball. I really, really do.

BRM
12-10-2008, 11:22 AM
I'm not joking. I'll jump. I'm a huge Rich Harden fan, and I actually have a cubs hat that I usually just abuse.

I hate Dustyball. I really, really do.

You have to keep posting here though, even if you jump ship....which you won't. ;)

lollipopcurve
12-10-2008, 11:23 AM
I'm not joking. I'll jump. I'm a huge Rich Harden fan, and I actually have a cubs hat that I usually just abuse.

I hate Dustyball. I really, really do.

Everybody loves a winner.

TRF
12-10-2008, 11:26 AM
is there a cubszone.com? I could be the George Grande of Cub fans.

WVRedsFan
12-10-2008, 11:32 AM
Hi and hello, TRF George. I think we'll be on the smiling side of the scoreboard more next year and you'll defer leaving :).

TRF
12-10-2008, 11:39 AM
Sample TRF Grande post on "Cubszone.com"

Great game today against the Reds. That Joey Votto is SOME ballplayer, maybe the finest 1B in the league in only his second full year. Cubs lose a tough one today 11-2, but made it interesting late until Votto sealed the win for the Reds by snaring that screamer (check swing) down the line for the final out.

jojo
12-10-2008, 12:20 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

dougdirt
12-10-2008, 12:23 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

Closer, but still not close. They still need at least 1 more big bat (.875 OPS or better) before I can seriously start thinking about making a playoff run.

lollipopcurve
12-10-2008, 12:26 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

Wouldn't you have to measure the improvement against other teams' improvements?

What kind of microscope is really needed here? He upgrades the position pretty convincingly without hamstringing the team's attempts to upgrade elsewhere. Unless you want to argue for a complete rebuild -- which I believe you've done before -- I don't see how this kind of roster building can be seriously questioned.

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 12:28 PM
is there a cubszone.com? I could be the George Grande of Cub fans.

Gush about the Cards all day and that dreamy Tony LaRusa, then whine until they re-sign Jim Edmunds?
:D

M2
12-10-2008, 12:31 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

By himself, not all that close, but hopefully this move will be taken in context of a half dozen moves.

Like princeton noted, Razor Ramon might allow the Reds to field a primo defensive SS because he can hit 7th instead of 8th. What's the impact of that?

He didn't cost much extra money and the team didn't part with any top prospects for him, so Jocketty theoretically hasn't blocked himself out of making all those other moves. What's the impact of that?

He's a catcher with some sock in his bat. The value of that increases if you put a capable lineup in front of him, enabling him to collect more big hits.

westofyou
12-10-2008, 12:39 PM
Everybody loves a winner.

That's no lie.

TRF
12-10-2008, 12:42 PM
TCF doesn't have the same feel as TRF though

(TRF by the way is short for transplantedredsfan, my handle, which was abused on the old Cincinnati Enquirer board back in '99)

RedEye
12-10-2008, 12:48 PM
TCF doesn't have the same feel as TRF though

(TRF by the way is short for transplantedredsfan, my handle, which was abused on the old Cincinnati Enquirer board back in '99)

Aha! I was wondering about that.

M2
12-10-2008, 12:49 PM
Everybody loves a winner.

Winning's fun. I've now reached a point with the Reds where they're either going to win or I'm not going to pay attention to them (which I managed to do awfully well the last two months of the 2008 season).

I like baseball. I can just watch games and not get wrapped up in the fortunes of any one team, especially a dull team that's not very good.

What I'm saying is, if the Reds are going to sit around all day in that house frock watching their stories, then I'm stepping out.

edabbs44
12-10-2008, 12:49 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

Not enough to get me excited, but it is a start.

In addition, if the reports are true and they aren't taking on any additional payroll or giving up prospects of value, then there isn't much harm. They got better without likely hurting themselves in the long run. Win win.

This is different than the "improvements" of the past few years, where we would sign someone to a multi-year contract who everyone knew wouldn't get us anywhere closer to where we need to be without additional material improvements. Sure we need more than Hernandez, but even if they don't get enough to make a playoff run then at least he isn't around for additional years and millions.

Now, if they sign him to a 3 year extension, then things become different.

lollipopcurve
12-10-2008, 12:55 PM
Winning's fun. I've now reached a point with the Reds where they're either going to win or I'm not going to pay attention to them (which I managed to do awfully well the last two months of the 2008 season).

I like baseball. I can just watch games and not get wrapped up in the fortunes of any one team, especially a dull team that's not very good.

What I'm saying is, if the Reds are going to sit around all day in that house frock watching their stories, then I'm stepping out.

But after the facelift and boob job, you'll be back?

westofyou
12-10-2008, 12:56 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8356


There was only a single trade made for a second straight day, and it again centered around a catcher as the Orioles shipped Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for utility player Ryan Freel and two minor league infielders, Justin Turner and Brandon Wearing. The Reds had been looking for a veteran catcher to share time with and serve as a mentor to rookie Ryan Hanigan. Hernandez, 32, had a fine first season with the Orioles in 2006 when he had a .281 EqA and 7.6 WARP2. However, those numbers have fallen in both of the last two seasons (.253, 3.2, and .251, 4.0).

The Reds hope that Hernandez is not a player on the decline, but rather someone who will be rejuvenated by switching teams and leagues. "Our scouts did notice that there was probably some level of frustration he was experiencing in Baltimore," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I did research on it with other people who have had him and got great reports, so we do think a change of scenery will help him immensely. We've got a pretty good pitching staff that I think he will develop and work well with while showing renewed energy."

Freel, 32, was limited to 48 games last season by a torn hamstring and had a .246 EqA. Orioles manager Dave Tremblay likes Freel's versatility. "He's like two players in one, because he can play all four infield positions and all three spots in the outfield," Trembley said. "We're more like a National League team than most American League teams. I like to pinch hit and pinch run more than most American League managers, and ability to play so many positions will come in handy."

The trade leaves the Orioles without a catcher on the 40-man roster. Vice president Andy MacPhail made it clear that the deal was made primarily to open a lineup spot for catching prospect Matt Wieters, though the Orioles will look to add a veteran backstop in case their top draft pick from 2007 needs to spend at least the beginning of the season at Triple-A Norfolk.

jojo
12-10-2008, 12:57 PM
Wouldn't you have to measure the improvement against other teams' improvements?


Well that's kind of the idea. For instance, I think he upgrades the Reds by maybe a win. I think the Reds need to find 12-15 wins to make the playoffs (or at least to have a real chance to make Cubs fans cry).


What kind of microscope is really needed here? He upgrades the position pretty convincingly without hamstringing the team's attempts to upgrade elsewhere. Unless you want to argue for a complete rebuild -- which I believe you've done before -- I don't see how this kind of roster building can be seriously questioned.

I don't recall being an advocate for a complete rebuild. Concerning this particular deal, I've already indicated that a reasoned argument can be made in support of the trade. The question posed though was essentially "how much impact is the deal likely to have relative to the big picture?".

M2
12-10-2008, 12:58 PM
But after the facelift and boob job, you'll be back?

I might settle for tooth brushing and shaven armpits.

HokieRed
12-10-2008, 01:00 PM
Doesn't, IMHO, bring them any closer but the trade hasn't done any damage to our longer term hopes--2010 and beyond. That's my prime hope for this trading season, that, unlike his predecessors, Walt doesn't either trade away pieces we will need once our best prospects are on the scene and our best starters have matured enough to constitute an actually condending rotation or enter into ridiculous contracts that make for diminished flexibility. So far he's not done that. Addition of a good RH hitter would make me start to get slightly hopeful, but I just don't see the pitching as being mature enough yet for a real run in 2009. Single realistic acquisition that would give real hope for 2009: Adrian Beltre.

Always Red
12-10-2008, 01:25 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

IMO it improves the catching to league average, which is a start.

There was a great thread here last season about the importance of being at least league average at every position, and how doing that actually results in a winning (ie- NOT average) team.

I'm not excited about Hernandez, but I think it takes the pressure off Hanigan somewhat. If $5 million for LaRue was too much, then $8 million for Hernandez is also too much. Rumor has it that the O's kicked in enough $ to make it an even contract swap for Freel's ridiculous contract.

*BaseClogger*
12-10-2008, 01:25 PM
The legacy of poor receivers in Cincy includes Eddie Taubensee (a DH back there), Jason Larue (good arm, but I didn't like anything else about him defensively), Paul Bako (A "defensive specialist" who seemed below average in every way from what I saw) and the worst of the bunch David Ross.

Come on now, mth, I know you really dislike Dave Ross and think very lowly of his defense, but worse receiver than Eddie Taubensee? Are you ignoring there arms, because you brought up arm with Jason LaRue.


The Reds bench and upper minors is filled with guys who the Reds hope can play an adequate 2B (Keppinger, Rosales, Valaika, Richar, Frazier maybe even Wilkin Castillo) but the Reds probably just dealt the only one who we know really can.

Reports say Chris Valaika might stick at shortstop, but he doesn't know 2B? I think Turner will be a fine bench player, cheap and valuable for several years, but he is not a better 2B than Chris Valaika...

M2
12-10-2008, 01:33 PM
For instance, I think he upgrades the Reds by maybe a win. I think the Reds need to find 12-15 wins to make the playoffs (or at least to have a real chance to make Cubs fans cry).

I don't think there's any meaningful way to assess the win value of the deal yet given that we don't know who else is joining the team.

If no other changes are made, then, sure, call it a one-win move.

If other things come together, then I'd submit giving the opposition something to worry about at the bottom of the lineup (as opposed to nothing to worry about) could pile up the WPA.

I'm just not sure a linear assessment means anything at this point.

WMR
12-10-2008, 01:57 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8356

Freel at SS? :eek:

BRM
12-10-2008, 02:00 PM
Freel at SS? :eek:

Yeah, I thought the "all four infield positions" was a bit much. Freel has never played a single game at 1B or SS in the majors.

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 02:07 PM
No Rangers starting pitcher was even close to having 200 innings pitched, with Vicente Padilla leading the rotation with 171 frames in 2008, as they went 79-83 and had the worst ERA in the majors with a 5.37 mark. The Rangers' pitching problems go beyond last season however; they've finished in the top half of the 14-team AL in ERA only once in the last 11 seasons, when they ranked fifth in 2004. "With the setup we have in the bullpen, it would be a dream come true if we could get more production out of our starting rotation,

You'd think that they'd have interest in Arroyo, for his 200 innings alone just to take some pressure off the bullpen. The Reds would have to have a line on another consistent starter though.

camisadelgolf
12-10-2008, 02:27 PM
All my opinions have probably been expressed by someone at some point in this thread, but here's my two cents anyway:

I like that Ryan Freel won't be running between Jay Bruce and the left fielder, who will probably be an expensive, big-name acquisition. The guy was a one-man wrecking crew and put the rest of the team in danger.

I don't like that the Reds dealt the right-handed platoon partner of Chris Dickerson. The outfield is the weakest part of the 25-man roster. Even if the Reds acquire a great right-handed bat for left field, they'll need someone who can come off the bench and play center. If they choose to carry only four outfielders, you can't let Norris Hopper be the first option off the bench; that's just asking for failure.

I don't care that the Reds traded Brandon Waring. He seems like only a Brandon Larson-type, and the Reds have a lot of third base depth anyway.

I'm going to miss Red Turner. From what I can tell, his ceiling is something similar to Jeff Keppinger's. He might not be a great everyday second baseman, but he's probably going to turn out to be a good utility infielder. The Reds currently have Brandon Phillips, will soon have Chris Valaika, and a little further down the line, they'll have Alex Buchholz, Cody Puckett, and maybe more. I wonder if the Reds would have been better off if they had waited to trade Turner because he will probably increase his value over the next year or two, but other than that, they picked a good position to trade from.

I like that the Reds obtained a catcher of Ramon Hernandez's caliber. First of all, the average catcher OPSes at .713, and Hernandez has been above that for each of the past six seasons. His offensive skills may be declining, but I think that will be compensated a bit by playing at GABP. This also means that Wilkin Castillo can continue to develop at AAA instead of being the backup catcher by default. The Reds should also have Craig Tatum at AAA, so hopefully this will spell the end for my nemesis, Ryan Jorgensen. ;) As an added bonus, Hernandez speaks Spanish, unlike Hanigan, which could come in handy when he's catching the Dominicans. I think that fact is often overlooked.

I like Ramon Hernandez's contract. Basically, he'll cost the Reds $6 million in 2009, and if the Reds want him for 2010, he would cost $7.5 million more. That could really come in handy if he has a great 2009. And if he doesn't set the league on fire, he won't be difficult to get rid of. Some people are acting like it was purely a salary dump, but effectively, it saved the Orioles only $2 million.

All in all, I think it was a fair trade. The Reds may have given up some value, but they got some value in return. Many people don't realize how difficult it is to obtain a decent catcher. Ryan Freel's career may be on its last leg, Brandon Waring probably won't cut it, and Justin Turner just wasn't needed. Hernandez's success in 2009 will probably be largely dependent on the luck of his BABIP, so I'm hoping this is a year that goes well for him. Even if it doesn't, when Hernandez is doing poorly, he's not Paul Bako-bad and is better than a lot of the catchers in the league.

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 02:36 PM
Even if he's not 100%, he'll probably run through a fence or into another outfielder and have plenty of downtime to get to 100% while his new war wounds heal.

Hopefully Wayne does not file a grievence against us when Freel goes the DL next year :lol:

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 02:42 PM
It's too much talent and money to give up for a player that doesn't drive you closer to being really good. He's 33 years old and a decent candidate to be out of the game in 2 years.

The O's won this one for sure.

How can you say this isn't a step forward to making us good?

We had no reliable catcher. We probably just picked one up for an overpaid 5th OF/utility guy that is going to get injured.

The prospects are inconsequential. Look at the odds that either Waring or the other guy will be an average starting position player. It's not a good roll of the dice. Probably 95% of the time, trading marginal prospects for ML talent is a win. It might be more successful than that. Sure, every 5-10 years, someone lets a Bagwell get away, but it is very rare.

There isn't a single move that will suddenly make this franchise very good.
Even if it were possible to add Babe Ruth or Cy Young in his prime, that would not make us very good. Too many holes. Walt just addressed one of those holes for practically no cost at all in trade chips. Maybe the team took on a little salary, but that's ok. Adding 0-3 million to payroll for a legitimate starting catcher is a good value.

Walt is a god for shedding Freel's contract. I thought that would be impossible. Frankly, I find it hillarious that Wayne is once again overvaluing Freel and helping us clean up a mistake that Wayne made.

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 02:49 PM
Do you think they can sign Hairston with what they were paying Freel?

Sure. They can get Harriston or someone like him for much less than Freel was due. Freel was due to make something like 4.5 or 5 million. One of the dumbest contracts Wayne handed out.

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2008, 02:51 PM
One of the dumbest contracts Wayne handed out.

Jocketty can get in line right behind him if he signs Hairston to anything longer than a 1 year deal.

BRM
12-10-2008, 03:03 PM
Jocketty can get in line right behind him if he signs Hairston to anything longer than a 1 year deal.

My guess is it will take more than a one year deal to get Hairston. Especially if multiple teams are interested.

KronoRed
12-10-2008, 03:04 PM
My guess is it will take more than a one year deal to get Hairston. Especially if multiple teams are interested.

And my guess is the Reds panic and offer way more then they should.

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2008, 03:05 PM
My guess is it will take more than a one year deal to get Hairston. Especially if multiple teams are interested.

Fantastic.

Then I'm happy to let someone else overpay and give a multi-year guarantee of employment on the hope that his +.60 BA spike, +.50 OBA spike, + .120 SLG spike was anything other than a career year and that his health problems will magically evaporate.

BRM
12-10-2008, 03:19 PM
Fantastic.

Then I'm happy to let someone else overpay and give a multi-year guarantee of employment on the hope that his +.60 BA spike, +.50 OBA spike, + .120 SLG spike was anything other than a career year and that his health problems will magically evaporate.

I agree with you. I'd let him go if he gets offered a multi-year deal elsewhere.

OnBaseMachine
12-10-2008, 03:20 PM
Brandon (Charleston): What are your thoughts on the Reds acquiring Ramon Hernandez?

Joe Sheehan: It only cost them money, as they didn't give up much, and he makes them better. Hernandez is basically an average MLB player, and those aren't that easy to find behind the plate.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=554&nocache=1228937771#new

BRM
12-10-2008, 03:21 PM
What is the real deal with Ramon's defense behind the plate? I've read everything from below average to above average. Is the truth in the middle and he's basically average?

jojo
12-10-2008, 03:37 PM
What is the real deal with Ramon's defense behind the plate? I've read everything from below average to above average. Is the truth in the middle and he's basically average?

He kind of stinks.

REDREAD
12-10-2008, 03:43 PM
And my guess is the Reds panic and offer way more then they should.

I don't think so. There's a new sheriff in town.

I can't recall Walt ever giving a bit player an expensive, multiyear contract.

Walt showed restraint on Affedlt. Whether you agree with the move or not, he did not panic.

Walt got Lincoln on a very reasonable deal (IMO)

Maybe Walt overvalued Weathers by offering him arb. Or maybe I'm totally wrong and Weathers does have 1 good year left. Really, Weathers is the closest accusation one can make about Walt "panicing" so far, and it's not a huge deal.

The days of Freel, Stanton and AGon type signings are over, IMO.

BRM
12-10-2008, 03:49 PM
He kind of stinks.

What's the point of making the trade then? Why would we want a poor defensive catcher?

Kc61
12-10-2008, 03:51 PM
Brandon (Charleston): What are your thoughts on the Reds acquiring Ramon Hernandez?

Joe Sheehan: It only cost them money, as they didn't give up much, and he makes them better. Hernandez is basically an average MLB player, and those aren't that easy to find behind the plate.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=554&nocache=1228937771#new

If Hernandez is average, and Hanigan is a young, promising catcher, the Reds have dramatically improved at that position over last year.

They may not have acquired the next Johnny Bench, but the Reds have really improved a key area of need with the advancement of Hanigan and acquisition of Hernandez.

The Reds also have to fix some other clear areas of need.

The fifth starter slot, with its 7 plus ERA, needs to be better than last year. Maybe Owings and Ramirez does that, but otherwise someone new.

And the outfield. Griffey, Dunn and Patterson are gone and Hairston is iffy. These were the four main outfielders most of last year. Bruce and Dickerson are a good start. Need more.

Finally, the left side of the infield defense, another sore spot from last year. They may have to rely on maturation (third base) and good health (shortstop) for 2009.

TRF
12-10-2008, 03:56 PM
I don't think so. There's a new sheriff in town.

I can't recall Walt ever giving a bit player an expensive, multiyear contract.

Walt showed restraint on Affedlt. Whether you agree with the move or not, he did not panic.

Walt got Lincoln on a very reasonable deal (IMO)

Maybe Walt overvalued Weathers by offering him arb. Or maybe I'm totally wrong and Weathers does have 1 good year left. Really, Weathers is the closest accusation one can make about Walt "panicing" so far, and it's not a huge deal.

The days of Freel, Stanton and AGon type signings are over, IMO.

When WK got to Cincinnati, there was a new Sheriff in Town. Same thing happened.

When DanO got to Cincinnati, there was a new Sheriff in Town. Same thing happened.

It happens to EVERY club. Everyone overpays for someone, and fans gripe. It is what it is.

M2
12-10-2008, 03:56 PM
Hanigan's not promising. He's a spaghetti stick with no speed. What he might be is a serviceable backup if he doesn't get overexposed -- play some defense, take some BBs and put together feisty ABs when he plays. That's got its uses. Asking for more was an idea with a massive trap door and the Reds clearly recognized that.

Rounding Third
12-10-2008, 04:02 PM
When WK got to Cincinnati, there was a new Sheriff in Town. Same thing happened.

When DanO got to Cincinnati, there was a new Sheriff in Town. Same thing happened.

It happens to EVERY club. Everyone overpays for someone, and fans gripe. It is what it is.

I wouldn't put all three of these guys in the same boat though. To be fair Walt has been a GM of a winning team in StL. Neither DanO or Kriv have put together a winning team.

Falls City Beer
12-10-2008, 04:03 PM
What's the point of making the trade then? Why would we want a poor defensive catcher?

He's not a bad catcher. Defensive stats blow, but they particularly blow for complex positions like catcher.

He's a better catcher than Ross. My only concern is his age.

Caveat Emperor
12-10-2008, 04:07 PM
Hanigan's not promising. He's a spaghetti stick with no speed. What he might be is a serviceable backup if he doesn't get overexposed -- play some defense, take some BBs and put together feisty ABs when he plays. That's got its uses. Asking for more was an idea with a massive trap door and the Reds clearly recognized that.

Spot on post.

It's foolhardy to give guys like Hanigan starting jobs based on limited sample-size ABs and middling minor league numbers. If he plays his way into additional ABs, that's a fine problem to have. But, until that happens, there is no sense in holding off on acquiring better, more proven players.

HeatherC1212
12-10-2008, 04:09 PM
Ramon was actually quite good for the O's when he first got there both offensively and defensively. I believe the O's were hitting him fifth or so in the lineup due to his solid hitting that season. He suffered through some injuries two years ago and then last year was frustrating all the way around for the O's as a whole which could have affected his play. I can see a change of scenery allowing Ramon to play better in both offense and defense and especially with him potentially going into a new contract year, he may have more motivation to play harder. By the end of the season the last two years, the O's have basically had to hit the scrap heap to find starting pitching due to injuries which can't be fun as the catcher. And of course there's also the enigma known as Daniel Cabrera who I don't think even Bench could have caught very well. All those things could easily weigh down a player and I saw it happen with a few other O's last year too. I can see Ramon doing well for us (especially with Cueto and Volquez) and he's definitely an upgrade from last year's catching disaster. :eek:

RichRed
12-10-2008, 04:15 PM
My two cents: I like trading an injury-prone utility guy who managed to play all of 123 games the last two years, plus two maybes in Turner and Waring, for a living, breathing starting catcher.

Although I feel bad for M2, because losing Freel doesn't exactly make the Reds any less boring.

Tom Servo
12-10-2008, 04:22 PM
I can't recall Walt ever giving a bit player an expensive, multiyear contract.

That's not completely true. Granted he may not give bit players those deals, but his signings of Adam Kennedy and Mark Mulder as well as his extension of Chris Carpenter were pretty much huge wastes of money. I like Walt but just like every GM he's prone to make a mistake now and then. Hopefully he's more careful then Wayne was in a smaller market.

Jpup
12-10-2008, 04:45 PM
Walt gave a multi years deals to Adam Kennedy and Scott Spezio in 2006. He gave Ryan Franklin and Randy Flores 2 years in 2007. 2005 he gave Juan Encarnacion 3 years, Braden Looper 3, and Ricardo Rincon 2. David Eckstein got 3 years at the end of 2004. Ray King got 2 years.

Jocketty also once traded for Tony Womack. Everyone has skeletons in their closet.

BRM
12-10-2008, 04:47 PM
Jocketty also once traded for Tony Womack. Everyone has skeletons in their closet.

He managed to get Womack's best year too.

Ltlabner
12-10-2008, 04:48 PM
Here's a question. In as specific of terms as possible, how much closer does the addition of Hernandez bring the Reds to making the playoffs in 2009?

Impossible to measure the value of a move in isolation in any meaningfull way. That is to say, while we can calculate that Hernandez is worth X number of runs it doesn't mean much as no single player is typically enough to take a 70-75 win ballclub to the playoffs (short of a Bonds or someone like that). So maybe he adds a win, or two or a half-win. But when measured in isolation the analysis is rather meaningless.

When The Jock is done making all his offseason/spring training moves, then we'll be able to analyize that his moves added X runs and will save Y runs resulting in a ABC win team (on paper).

In broad, theroectical terms, adding a catcher with some experience, who isn't a poven black-hole of sucknicity, without adding to payroll and in the process ridding the team of an expensive usless part seems like "improvement" to me. While it's a gamble giving up tallent in the two prospects, even if Hernadez is mearly average to slightly below average it's a massive improvement over the previous versions of the catching three headed monster. Seems to me that gets us "closer" to the playoffs.

Falls City Beer
12-10-2008, 04:49 PM
Walt gave a multi years deals to Adam Kennedy and Scott Spezio in 2006. He gave Ryan Franklin and Randy Flores 2 years in 2007. 2005 he gave Juan Encarnacion 3 years, Braden Looper 3, and Ricardo Rincon 2. David Eckstein got 3 years at the end of 2004. Ray King got 2 years.

Jocketty also once traded for Tony Womack. Everyone has skeletons in their closet.

Aside from Rincon and Kennedy, he got solid production from a lot of those guys.

Jpup
12-10-2008, 04:55 PM
Aside from Rincon and Kennedy, he got solid production from a lot of those guys.

just pointing out that he also gives multi year deals.

jojo
12-10-2008, 05:24 PM
Impossible to measure the value of a move in isolation in any meaningfull way. That is to say, while we can calculate that Hernandez is worth X number of runs it doesn't mean much as no single player is typically enough to take a 70-75 win ballclub to the playoffs (short of a Bonds or someone like that). So maybe he adds a win, or two or a half-win. But when measured in isolation the analysis is rather meaningless.

I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.

Ltlabner
12-10-2008, 05:36 PM
I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.

A players individual impact obviously can be measured, but until you know who all the players are you are spinning your wheels measuring overall team performance.

Sure, you can make an analysis today that the team will likely produce X number of wins and the recently acquired player added/subtracted Y number of wins. But a trade announced tonight changes that whole calculus. As the offseason gets shorter and the number of likely moves gets reduced then you can begin to rough out enough data to make analysis practical.

I'm not saying you can't make an analysis right this second, I'm just saying it's worth squat until the roster is solidified somewhere around the first weeks of April.

And since no player by himself can swing a teams number of wins a huge degree pretty much every move in isolation will result in the same outcome of "doesn't take us to the playoffs, don't change anything, rearranging the deck chairs, etc".

M2
12-10-2008, 05:39 PM
I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.

I think the larger point is Hernandez has sliding value dependent on other factors, something I'm sure the Reds have taken into account.

Again, does he allow the Reds to play a better glove at SS? How many runs will that save? What's the WPA value of him hitting with a little bit of power in the #7 slot of a capable lineup? That sort of thing qualifies as a bit of an extraneous luxury in a lineup that breaks down long before you get to the #7 slot, but it can be an important cog in pushing a club over the 800-run mark in a more functional unit.

I'm with lollipop, you can measure his raw impact on the current unit, but I don't think it really means anything. The Reds surely hope the value of this move will be enhanced in combination with other moves.

Seems to me this is the sort of secondary, orthagonal move I was referring to in this thread (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=72530). I'm more interested in, hopefully, the series of moves that follow it.

bucksfan2
12-10-2008, 05:40 PM
I disagree. If a player's impact couldn't be reasonably predicted, how could a roster be put together in any rationale way?

Basically if a player's skill level can be reliably estimated, the impact of adding him to a roster should be able to at least be roughed out in a fashion that makes analysis practical.

How reasonably can you predict a players performance? Were the predictions even close upon the final numbers of Volquez and Harang?

Hoosier Red
12-10-2008, 05:40 PM
In broad, theroectical terms, adding a catcher with some experience, who isn't a poven black-hole of sucknicity, without adding to payroll and in the process ridding the team of an expensive usless part seems like "improvement" to me. While it's a gamble giving up tallent in the two prospects, even if Hernadez is mearly average to slightly below average it's a massive improvement over the previous versions of the catching three headed monster. Seems to me that gets us "closer" to the playoffs.

I'm in favor of the deal as a whole, but one thing that's been bugging me from proponents of the deal is the two sided argument of payroll neutrality and "ridding an expensive piece."

It's impossible that this deal did both. Either we added a $6,000,000 catcher-who may be slightly overpaid-but we got rid of a hefty contract.

Or we added only $2,000,000 in salary, and got a starting caliber catcher.

Sorry nitpicking but it's been bugging me.

jojo
12-10-2008, 05:46 PM
How reasonably can you predict a players performance? Were the predictions even close upon the final numbers of Volquez and Harang?

Pretty reasonably.

Ltlabner
12-10-2008, 05:48 PM
I'm in favor of the deal as a whole, but one thing that's been bugging me from proponents of the deal is the two sided argument of payroll neutrality and "ridding an expensive piece."

It's impossible that this deal did both. Either we added a $6,000,000 catcher-who may be slightly overpaid-but we got rid of a hefty contract.

Or we added only $2,000,000 in salary, and got a starting caliber catcher.

Sorry nitpicking but it's been bugging me.

Hernandez's production is more likely to be in line with his salary (with the cash considerations factored in) than Freel's would be if he was a Red in 2009. So while we didn't add payroll we rid the team of a more expensive player (when comparing production to salary).

Freel is more expensive as a player (or to be more accurate, his production is more expensive) even though Hernandez may make more in total salary he does. The cost/value of a player is more than just the zeros on his paycheck.

Making up numbers here:

Hernandez gets paid $100 but gives 75% return so he "costs" $25

Freel gets paid $60 but only gives a 50% return so his "cost" is $30.

jojo
12-10-2008, 05:52 PM
I'm with lollipop, you can measure his raw impact on the current unit, but I don't think it really means anything.

In a way your post (from which the above point was taken) kind of argues in favor of the alternative conclusion. By this I mean that measuring the impact of Hernandez relative to the current iteration of the roster informs (or should at least in my view) subsequent decisions.

For instance, if the goal is the playoffs, the addition of Hernandez probably just eliminated a lot of potential options (like adding an Izturus or an Everett as the O's and Tigers have recently done) or if it hasn't eliminated them it signals the need for a huge upgrade somewhere else.

MrCinatit
12-10-2008, 05:57 PM
To be frank, I am very surprised Walt was able to get a very warm body for Freel. Ryan was a lot of fun while he lasted, but his best years are far behind him.
Yes, I realize Hernandez is the same age and has a recent history of injury - but I have very high hopes for this move. Plus, he might be able to make a very nice connection with out two young Dominican pitchers...which could be a very nice plus, indeed.

M2
12-10-2008, 06:12 PM
In a way your post (from which the above point was taken) kind of argues in favor of the alternative conclusion. By this I mean that measuring the impact of Hernandez relative to the current iteration of the roster informs (or should at least in my view) subsequent decisions.

For instance, if the goal is the playoffs, the addition of Hernandez probably just eliminated a lot of potential options (like adding an Izturus or an Everett as the O's and Tigers have recently done) or if it hasn't eliminated them it signals the need for a huge upgrade somewhere else.

Since Hernandez cost no significant extra cash nor any frontline trading chips, it's an illogical leap to assume he's cost the club anything. How exactly has it eliminated anything other than other catching options?

Izturis and Everett (the former in whom I had some interest, the latter whom I consider one of the worst players alive) are off the market because other teams signed them, not because the Reds acquired Hernandez. Simply put, there is no connection.

Are sizable changes needed elsewhere? You bet. I believe I made that very point in my first post in this thread. That was always the case. The catcher acquisition wasn't going to be a singularly transformational event for the Reds. They weren't getting a star catcher this winter. That said, the club also couldn't afford to clod around with one foot stuck in a nothing-from-your-catcher bucket like it did last season.

This move signals nothing. There's nothing new the Reds need to do that they didn't need to do prior to the Hernandez acquisition. There is, however, one less thing to do.

jojo
12-10-2008, 06:25 PM
Since Hernandez cost no significant extra cash nor any frontline trading chips, it's an illogical leap to assume he's cost the club anything. How exactly has it eliminated anything other than other catching options?

That's exactly the point. They've locked their catching up and here's the impact...(insert your estimate).

Now they still need to add this amount of impact....(insert your estimate).


Izturis and Everett (the former in whom I had some interest, the latter whom I consider one of the worst players alive) are off the market because other teams signed them, not because the Reds acquired Hernandez. Simply put, there is no connection.

I thought it was pretty obvious those two guys were being used as examples of a type of shortstop (i.e. ones who need substantial defensive value just to be considered an average major league player). Locking in the impact of an upgrade at one position colors the compromises that could be made at other positions if indeed the goal is to have the greatest shot at making the playoffs this season.

Ltlabner
12-10-2008, 06:28 PM
That's exactly the point. They've locked their catching up and here's the impact...(insert your estimate).

Now they still need to add this amount of impact....(insert your estimate).

Which assumes a players contributions/impacts are fixed and neither enhanced or diminished by subsequent player moves.