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Krusty
12-10-2008, 06:14 PM
Word is out on Minnesota Twins outfielder Delmon Young: He can be had
Gardenhire tries damage control
By Phil Miller
pmiller@pioneerpress.com
Posted: 12/10/2008 12:01:00 AM CST


Minnesota Twins' Delmon Young hits a two-run home run in the second inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals Saturday, Aug. 9, 2008, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)LAS VEGAS Ron Gardenhire's public comments Tuesday about Delmon Young resembled last week's about as much as Fargo, N.D., resembles Las Vegas.

The Twins' manager, almost sheepish about "the fire I accidentally lit" by suggesting at an appearance in Fargo last week that Young won't be in his starting lineup next season, insisted at baseball's winter meetings that "we're blessed to have four talented outfielders" and that nothing is settled about the Twins' 2009 outfield.

"I'm backpedaling; can't you see?" Gardenhire said. "That was me sort of screwing up. ... Everyone knows the players are the ones who will decide that. They're the ones who have to go out and earn (their jobs)."

The Twins' manager told the Fargo Forum newspaper last week that Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez "have to play every day," pointedly leaving out Young, 23. That Young became the focus of stories after Gardenhire's visit to Fargo surprised the manager, he said.

"It wasn't a shot at anybody," Gardenhire said. "I was hunting. And I saw my picture in the Aberdeen (S.D.) newspaper, and I said, 'Whoa.' "

Gardenhire has not contacted Young to smooth things over, "but I would in a heartbeat, and tell him, 'My bad.' "

He had some explaining to do to someone else, however: his boss.

"I don't think he was too happy," Gardenhire said of general manager Bill Smith. But "(he) didn't slap me too hard."

Smith said the front office had contacted Young's agent and
there are no hard feelings. There has been another effect, however. Young has been the subject of trade rumors since baseball's executives gathered at the Bellagio this week.
"A lot of clubs might read that and say, 'Hey, we can get Delmon Young for nothing.' And I can tell you right now, that ain't going to happen," Gardenhire said. "We gave up a lot for Delmon Young, and we're not out to give him away. He's a very talented player with a lot of upside."

Still, the manager hinted that the Twins are at least listening to offers for the former No. 1 overall pick, who hit .290 with 10 home runs after being acquired in November 2007 in a trade that sent right-hander Matt Garza to Tampa Bay.

"If there's an area where we could move a person and somebody came after us strong for one of our outfielders, that's an area where we have a little more depth than other places. If we have to do it, we have to do it," Gardenhire said. But, he hastened to add, "there's never anything wrong with going into spring training with a little depth."

Push for Punto: Though Gardenhire is not willing to guarantee a starting job to any of his outfielders, he is certain about one player he wants in his lineup. But Nick Punto is a free agent.

"If we sign Nick Punto, he would be my starting shortstop," Gardenhire said, calling the pursuit of Punto and reliever Dennys Reyes "the first priority for us. ... I like Nicky out there. He's a gamer. I think he does a pretty good job."

Punto said he has received serious inquiries from "three or four teams," and published reports have said the Phillies are particularly interested. Every team that has called projects him as a starter, Punto said, "though I don't care where, as long as I'm playing every day."

Smith said the Twins will meet with Punto during this week's meetings, though there is no timetable for working out a deal.

"Minnesota is my first choice. It would be really hard to leave there," said Punto, who batted .284 in 99 games last season. "It's really great to hear (Gardenhire) say that. It means a lot to hear that from your manager."

Briefly: Gardenhire said he left a voice mail on Casey Blake's phone describing what role the free agent would have with the Twins. "I just said, 'We really like you,' " Gardenhire joked. But Blake signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers on Tuesday, a contract one year longer than the Twins were willing to offers.


The Twins are seeking a third baseman or shortstop via trade, but Gardenhire said if an "impact bat" can be found at second base instead, he would be willing to move Alexi Casilla to short. "That could happen. If we lose Nicky, I'm not afraid to take a look at Casilla over there."

Former Twins outfielder Torii Hunter made an appearance alongside tennis star Andre Agassi on Tuesday to announce a new scholarship program to help 100 students go to college. Hunter has donated $1 million to the program, which will start by awarding scholarships to teens in Pine Bluff, Ark., where he grew up, southern California and Minnesota, where he has played as a professional, and Las Vegas, where he will help students at a charter school founded by Agassi.

Mario-Rijo
12-10-2008, 06:31 PM
But Blake signed a three-year contract with the Dodgers on Tuesday, a contract one year longer than the Twins were willing to offers.

Wow, I hadn't seen that Casey Blake had actually been re-signed. But like the Twins I wouldn't have gone more than 2 years on him. I guess that means that Blake DeWitt will take over at 2B for the departed Kent.

kheidg-
12-10-2008, 06:48 PM
Homer Bailey + another B-prospect for Delmon Young? Any takers?

M2
12-10-2008, 07:03 PM
I'd want him for less than Bailey. Gardenhire's mistake was that he stated the obvious. The Twins have 3 OFs in front of Young and that's not even counting Jason Kubel.

I don't really care what the team traded for Young last year, he's a guy with an attitude and without a job. No one's going to want to trade much for him.

dougdirt
12-10-2008, 07:05 PM
Homer Bailey + another B-prospect for Delmon Young? Any takers?

EW, no way. I wouldn't trade Bailey for Young and a B prospect from the Twins.

Whats more likely to happen of these two options:

Homer Bailey can locate his fastball a little bit better
or
Delmon Young finds some power and learns plate discipline?

Krusty
12-10-2008, 07:19 PM
EW, no way. I wouldn't trade Bailey for Young and a B prospect from the Twins.

Whats more likely to happen of these two options:

Homer Bailey can locate his fastball a little bit better
or
Delmon Young finds some power and learns plate discipline?

Hitters are easier to develop than pitchers.

reds44
12-10-2008, 07:20 PM
EW, no way. I wouldn't trade Bailey for Young and a B prospect from the Twins.

Whats more likely to happen of these two options:

Homer Bailey can locate his fastball a little bit better
or
Delmon Young finds some power and learns plate discipline?
I think the odds of Delmon Young being a productive major league player are better than Homer Bailey being a productive pitcher.

dougdirt
12-10-2008, 07:26 PM
Hitters are easier to develop than pitchers.

Except Delmon has already been developed. While he will be just 23 years old next year, his hitting approach hasn't changed since the day he was drafted. I think the main question is, do you think Delmon can learn to be patient quicker/more effective than Homer can learn to control his fastball?

Me, I say no. Why? Bailey has games where he can locate it just fine, meaning he certainly has that ability. Delmon swings at everything and always has.

Krusty
12-10-2008, 07:29 PM
Isn't Young the type of outfielder the Reds should be targeting......young, cheap with a high upside? Take away the incident two years ago tossing his bat at the umpire and where else is the character issues?

The Reds might have a nice middle of the batting order with Votto, Young, Bruce and Encarnacion.

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=min&playerID=430321

Benihana
12-10-2008, 07:42 PM
I would trade Homer Bailey for Delmon Young.

A former highly touted pitcher with maturity issues who bombed for two straight seasons in the majors and subsequently regressed for an uber-talented OF who was a former first overall pick yet has developed serious off the field issues and has also yet to put it all together at the major league level.

Sound familiar?

corkedbat
12-10-2008, 07:47 PM
:D
Homer Bailey + another B-prospect for Delmon Young? Any takers?

Young isn't one of my favorites. Was lwatching MLB TV on the web monday and they were talking about the Phillies' possible interest in You, The guy talking said he'd watched plenty of Delmon Young and wasn't impressed.

Said after seeing him in LF for a little while, they'd think that Pat Burrell was a Gold Glover.

Yeah he'syoung, yeahhe' hit .300 and yeah there's a decent chance his power will develop, but he's already had some serious attitude issues and I'm not sure he'd handle problems (like if he came here, struggle and was benched).

I understand that there's talent there and he could join the nucleus, but personally, I'd say no thanks. I'd rather thay spned more to add a verteran bat to go along side our youngsters for a couple of years, while our next wave matures and we have our own in-house answer.

If that's the way that Walt decides to go, I'm fine with it, but I hope its at a deep discount. If we do add him, I predict he's somone that 90% of the board loathes by the tradedealine and that many Redzoners don't agree on anything.

flyer85
12-10-2008, 07:47 PM
Young is exactly the wrong type of hitter the Reds need to focus ... they are already chock full of hackers.

Krusty
12-10-2008, 07:52 PM
Young is exactly the wrong type of hitter the Reds need to focus ... they are already chock full of hackers.


105 strikeouts in 575 ABs. If Adam Dunn did this we would say what a great hitter he has become. But for Delmon Young he is the wrong type of hitter?

flyer85
12-10-2008, 07:59 PM
105 strikeouts in 575 ABs. If Adam Dunn did this we would say what a great hitter he has become. But for Delmon Young he is the wrong type of hitter?Young is low OBP with a middling slg%. The 2009 Reds are going to be incredibly OBP challenged, which will make it difficult to be a good offensive team.

Raisor
12-10-2008, 08:02 PM
105 strikeouts in 575 ABs. If Adam Dunn did this we would say what a great hitter he has become. But for Delmon Young he is the wrong type of hitter?

Dunn's first 650 ML PA's included 116 BB.
Young's first 1435 ML PA's included 62 BB's.

That's what we're talking about when we mention a "hacker".

M2
12-10-2008, 08:04 PM
You know, the more I look at it, the more willing I'd be to take a chance on Young. I'm not in love with the idea, but it's a gamble I think I'd take.

He's got defensive tools. He wasn't awful (though not good either) in RF in 2007. There really isn't any physical reason preventing him from being a plus LF. Supposedly Dusty Baker is a good motivator. He certainly knows a few things about how to play the OF. Eric Davis might be able to show Young a few things in ST.

Young can hit for average. While I don't like his lack of discipline, his BA should be enough to make his OB tolerable if his power shows up.

He's also arbitration-eligible next year, which might provide some motivation to stop being a pinhead.

As for what it might take to get him, I'd still like to move Bailey for something else. That said, if push came to shove, I'd probably make the deal.

Yet, looking at the Twins organization, it's light on IFs. Maybe Chris Valaika (exactly one month older than Young) would float Minnesota's boat ... just a thought.

hebroncougar
12-10-2008, 08:12 PM
While I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Young.......his plate discipline is awful, and Dusty being his "father figure" to lean on, his plate discipline won't improve.

Raisor
12-10-2008, 08:15 PM
You know, the more I look at it, the more willing I'd be to take a chance on Young. I'm not in love with the idea, but it's a gamble I think I'd take.

He's got defensive tools. He wasn't awful (though not good either) in RF in 2007. There really isn't any physical reason preventing him from being a plus LF. Supposedly Dusty Baker is a good motivator. He certainly knows a few things about how to play the OF. Eric Davis might be able to show Young a few things in ST.

Young can hit for average. While I don't like his lack of discipline, his BA should be enough to make his OB tolerable if his power shows up.

.


The Reds were next to last in OBP after the All-Star break last year, and I haven't seen anything yet to make me think it's going to get much better. For it to stay the same as last year Votto will have to improve or at least maintain, and then the whole rest of the team will need to get better. I can see Bruce improving, but other then that I'm at a loss.

If there's any hope at all for 2009, the Reds HAVE to find a couple more guys that can get on base, and the names I'm hearing (Tavaras, Dye, Young, etc) aren't really those type of guys.

Walt doesn't appear to be rebuilding, which either means they're going for it, in which case I have no idea how this offense is capable of that, or they're trying to reach .500, in which case I say "woopie doo".

Can anyone honestly say, even if the Reds add Dye or Burrell that the offense will be good enough to hang with the Cubs?

dougdirt
12-10-2008, 08:26 PM
Can anyone honestly say, even if the Reds add Dye or Burrell that the offense will be good enough to hang with the Cubs?

Honestly, I think that depends on the health of our 1-4 starters and Alex Gonzalez performing average for a full season both offensively or defensively.

Benihana
12-10-2008, 08:26 PM
Can anyone honestly say, even if the Reds add Dye or Burrell that the offense will be good enough to hang with the Cubs?

If the Cubs get Peavy, I'm not sure the Reds could do much short of a miracle to compete with them. Unless of course they completely choke, which being the Cubs, that's completely possible.

M2
12-10-2008, 08:48 PM
The Reds were next to last in OBP after the All-Star break last year, and I haven't seen anything yet to make me think it's going to get much better. For it to stay the same as last year Votto will have to improve or at least maintain, and then the whole rest of the team will need to get better. I can see Bruce improving, but other then that I'm at a loss.

If there's any hope at all for 2009, the Reds HAVE to find a couple more guys that can get on base, and the names I'm hearing (Tavaras, Dye, Young, etc) aren't really those type of guys.

Walt doesn't appear to be rebuilding, which either means they're going for it, in which case I have no idea how this offense is capable of that, or they're trying to reach .500, in which case I say "woopie doo".

Can anyone honestly say, even if the Reds add Dye or Burrell that the offense will be good enough to hang with the Cubs?

I hear you. I've got grave concerns about the team OB, but then I get to the last sentence and I think to myself, "Well, maybe they can surprise with a bat-on-the-ball group."

Bruce, Young and Phillips have punch. Votto has good plate discipline. Encarnacion has fair plate discipline. Maybe if you get some OB from CF and/or SS, you can blend it together into something that works. It should be noted that the Cubs improved 103 runs last year while netting only one position change upgrade (better at C and CF, worse in RF).

I keep coming back to the notion that whatever the Reds do, even something that works, won't be without flaws. Yet if Bruce and Young realize their considerable potential, the Reds might be able to tear through any pitcher. It's not guaranteed to work, but what is? Seems to me that taking a chance on some high-end talent is where the biggest reward can be found.

It was only a year ago Carlos Quentin was considered a flop. I know he's a different player, one with plate discipline, but Young can hit for average. Even when he's struggled at everything else, he's hit for average. He's got the build and the bat speed that indicate power should be part of the package.

Put three rippers in the middle of the lineup, some OB in front of them and competent bats below them and you might just have yourself a plus offense. And if it doesn't quite work out immediately, at least the core of your team is 25, 23, 22, 26 and 28.

OnBaseMachine
12-10-2008, 08:57 PM
I like your thinking, M2. I'm not crazy about Young's plate approach, and I wouldn't give up a to to get him (maybe Valaika + Maloney), but he's worth taking a chance on, IMO. In the minors he hit .318/.362/.518 - .880. So far only his batting average (.292) has translated to the majors. If/when his power develops, he's got a chance to be an impact bat. Some have compared him to Albert Belle. He's got that type of talent... maybe Dusty can be the guy to help him tap into that potential? The Reds have had luck with his type before (Phillips, Hamilton).

SMcGavin
12-10-2008, 08:59 PM
Young's not a bad target, but does he really fit with the direction Jocketty is going? Getting Hernandez, signing Lincoln, offering Arthur Rhodes, looking into Dye, looking for a CF who's not Dickerson. Seems like a "let's win now" mode. Young's a nice target to mature with Votto, Bruce, et. al, but I don't know how good he's going to be in 2009.

membengal
12-11-2008, 07:18 AM
Re the thread header:

Because he's naive?

kheidg-
12-11-2008, 09:46 AM
If we were going to give up Bailey and a plus prospect for Dye (and his 12 mil salary). I see no reason why not to do the same for a 23 year old Young, still yet to hit his prime. I see a pretty big season out of him this year. Last year, he started off poorly but finished strong. And he doesn't play a bad LF at all. Compared to Dunn, he's a gold glover.

REDREAD
12-11-2008, 09:49 AM
I think the odds of Delmon Young being a productive major league player are better than Homer Bailey being a productive pitcher.


Yes, I'd do Homer for Young in a heartbeat.
Homer might be out of baseball next season. Young may not ever be the superstar he was hoped to be, but at least he'll be a ML player for a few years.

REDREAD
12-11-2008, 10:00 AM
Young is low OBP with a middling slg%. The 2009 Reds are going to be incredibly OBP challenged, which will make it difficult to be a good offensive team.

Yes, but if the cost is only Homer, sign me up. We still need to pick up at least one (preferably 2) OF.

Young is an upgrade from Hopper, I think everyone agrees that. Someone like Dye is a better choice for 2009, but Young is a potential long term solution, or at least a stopgap that we could probably retrade if a better solution came along.

If Young shows that he can hit, possibly you could move him to 1b in the future to address the defense problem. Then trade Votto for another need (or trade Young).

I want the Reds to increase their chances of winning in 2009, but I also would like to see some moves where their long term talent base is increased.
Young is potentially a move like that. I really doubt the Twins would accept only Homer for him, but I am speaking hypothetically.

REDREAD
12-11-2008, 10:27 AM
Can anyone honestly say, even if the Reds add Dye or Burrell that the offense will be good enough to hang with the Cubs?

The only way the Reds are ever going to compete for the division is to have a collection of cheap talent that delivers a lot of bang for the buck.

Young might be part of a collection of talent that does that in the future. Of course, Young is a risk. If Young was a sure thing, he wouldn't be on the trading block. Teams like the Reds need to take smart risks. I acknowledge that maybe Young isn't a smart risk. I think he is, but I've been wrong before.

I think we need to be careful about setting a line, and saying that we only want position players that have an OBP above X. Sure OBP is important, but moves that increase the team's talent incrementally are needed on the road to building a contender.

IMO, getting to 500 would be a nice accomplishment next year. Sure, there's no banner for that, but it would hopefully boost attendence and bring in more revenue for the team to use in 2010. It would also make watching the team a lot more fun for me next year. I really don't buy into this notion that the Reds should only make moves that guarantee them to be in a contender's role.

I see Young as an upgrade to Hopper. Potentially a huge upgrade. I'm sour on Homer. Apparently, Homer isn't suited well for the pen, so I don't see a lot of value for him on the Reds. Therefore, I do Homer-Young without even pausing.

osuceltic
12-11-2008, 10:32 AM
I'm cautiously on board with Young. I like the talent, but we're at two teams who have been more than happy to be rid of him after an awfully short amount of time. The Twins have a culture I admire, and if they see a serious problem with a guy, that sends up red flags.

That being said, people do mature. If you can get him for a reasonable return, he's probably a solid risk. And if he puts up big numbers in GAB, more teams will be willing to look the other way on the attitude and character issues -- meaning you probably could flip him for more than you gave up originally.

The list of available RH bats isn't a long one. Walt may have to take some risks.

Dom Heffner
12-11-2008, 10:33 AM
EW, no way. I wouldn't trade Bailey for Young and a B prospect from the Twins.


Yeah, one September start would sway me from grabbing Delmon Young.

The more I read your analysis of Homer Bailey, the more I think you wouldn't trade him for Albert Pujols.

membengal
12-11-2008, 10:51 AM
Just went and re-looked at Young's stats and to compare him to Hopper is silly. He is a massive upgrade from that, and IF the Reds are going to take a flyer on filling an OF spot, I would love to buy into someone like Young at age 23 with two full seasons under his belt and power development still probable (and who makes nice contact) over Dye.

Young's two full seasons have yielded these lines:

2007 (Tampa age 21): 645 at bats in 162 games .288 BA .316 OBP .408 SLG 13 HR 10 SB

2008 (Minny age 22): 575 at bats in 152 games .290 BA .336 OBP .405 SLG 10 HR 14 SB

For comparisons sake, Redszone favorite, Dodger Matt Kemp:

2008 (LA age 23): 606 at bats in 155 games .290 BA .340 OBP .459 SLG 18 HR 35 SB

More power and a surprising speed total from Kemp, but otherwise, pretty similar lines (and Young is a year younger). And with Young, no reason to think he won't continue to add HR and doubles as he matures through his 20s. Seems a great time to buy in, particularly if the price is decent.

If Young can really be brought in, I would have no problem shipping Bailey for him. I would consider an OF that had Bruce and Young at the corners one that would potentially give the team a cornerstone for years to come. Well worth pursuing.

flyer85
12-11-2008, 10:57 AM
Just went and re-looked at Young's stats and to compare him to Hopper is silly. He is a massive upgrade from that, and IF the Reds are going to take a flyer on filling an OF spot, I would love to buy into someone like Young at age 23 with two full seasons under his belt and power development still probable (and who makes nice contact) over Dye.

Young's two full seasons have yielded these lines:

2007 (Tampa age 21): 645 at bats in 162 games .288 BA .316 OBP .408 SLG 13 HR 10 SB

2008 (Minny age 22): 575 at bats in 152 games .290 BA .336 OBP .405 SLG 10 HR 14 SB

For comparisons sake, Redszone favorite, Dodger Matt Kemp:

2008 (LA age 23): 606 at bats in 155 games .290 BA .340 OBP .459 SLB 18 HR 35 SB

More power and a surprising speed total from Kemp, but otherwise, pretty similar lines (and Young is a year younger). And with Young, no reason to think he won't continue to add HR and doubles as he matures through his 20s. Seems a great time to buy in, particularly if the price is decent.

If Young can really be brought in, I would have no problem shipping Bailey for him. I would consider an OF that had Bruce and Young at the corners one that would potentially give the team a cornerstone for years to come. Well worth pursuing.the low(to middling) OBP and low SLG% in 2 full seasons is troubling. A sub 750 OPS is bad for a corner OF, he would need to raise his OPS 100 points to be an asset. Want a Twin ... go get Denard Span.

membengal
12-11-2008, 10:59 AM
He did that at ages 21 and 22. Gracious but our standards are high with young'uns. Seems to me a guy like Young is a good bet to be very productive ages 24-27. Buy in early and get him for those years, cheap, now that's a plan that a club like Cincy should be all about.

I would expect he will be OPSing in the .800s those years.

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:04 AM
Jay Bruce (Cincy age 21): 413 at bats in 108 games .254 BA .314 OBP .453 SLG 21 HR 4 SB

Bruce's OPS in his age 21 season: .767

Young's OPS in his age 21 season: .724

Do you expect Bruce to OPS below .800 throughout his 20s? I don't.

flyer85
12-11-2008, 11:05 AM
He did that at ages 21 and 22. Gracious but our standard are high with young'uns. Seems to me a guy like Young is a good bet to be very productive ages 24-27. Buy in early and get him for those years, cheap, now that's a plan that a club like Cincy should be all about.

I would expect he will be OPSing in the .800s those years.What will improve his numbers is not his getting older but his becoming less of a hacker at the plate. There is a reason there the Twins are looking to get rid of him. My suggestion is find a young player who already has a track record of decent plate discipline.

Generally trading for something with the hope they will turn into something that there numbers say they are not is a bad idea.

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:07 AM
What will improve his numbers (and his hacking) is experience in the league. Look, if he doesn't improve on that, then, yes, he will not be what he can be based on his sizable skill set. But he is already quite useful at a tender age, and there is room to believe that he can show more discipline, and that the rest of his power will come in. It is the kind of bet that I would love to see the Reds make, particularly for a low price. And I don't consider Bailey to expensive a chip with which to make that bet.

For the love of goodness, he's got two full years under his belt at age 22.

flyer85
12-11-2008, 11:10 AM
Jay Bruce (Cincy age 21): 413 at bats in 108 games .254 BA .314 OBP .453 SLG 21 HR 4 SB

Bruce's OPS in his age 21 season: .767

Young's OPS in his age 21 season: .724

Do you expect Bruce to OPS below .800 throughout his 20s? I don't.
I don't know what to expect yet. If he wants to get better he needs to improve his plate discipline(not the easiest thing to do),. One thing for sure is Bruce has shown a lot more power than Young.

flyer85
12-11-2008, 11:13 AM
For the love of goodness, he's got two full years under his belt at age 22.
As Bill Parcells likes to say "you are what your record says you are". He has well over a thousand ABs with no evidence of either plate discipline or power. Would I trade Bailey for him? Probably, but I certainly wouldn't be expecting a different player than what his numbers says he is.

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:16 AM
Man but I love baseballreference.com:

Here's fun for you:

Dave Winfield 1974 season at age 22: .265 BA .318 OBP .438 SLG .756 OPS
Dave Winfield 1975 season at age 23: .267 BA .354 OBP .403 SLG .757 OPS
Dave Winfield 1976 season at age 24: .283 BA .366 OBP .431 SLG .797 OPS
Dave Winfield 1977 season at age 25: .275 BA .335 OBP .467 SLG .802 OPS

So, flyer, was Dave Winfield what his record said he was? Or was there much better stuff on the way??????

It got better from there. Much.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/winfida01.shtml

My point is that young players who hold their own in the bigs, and who posess genuine skills like Young does, are well worth a gamble. Particularly at the low low price of Homer Bailey.

Redszone circa 1975 would really have argued against acquiring a guy like Winfield because of his slow to develop power and inconsistent batting eye in his early formative years? Really?

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:24 AM
By the way, I am not saying Young will ever be 1/100th the player that Winfield turned out to be, just using him as an example of why I am loathe to write off a player with Young's abilities at his age...

Scrap Irony
12-11-2008, 11:27 AM
A 20-point jump in OBP in one year, with only a two-point jump in BA could mean his plate discipline is improving slightly, a la EdE. Since power is the last tool to develop (generally) and the GABP is a notorious bandbox, I could see Young's slugging jump around 50 points. (That would likely be about 10 fly balls that turn into dingers over the course of a year.)

That's a nice flier to take, IMO, but not a LF you could count on.

I'd probably sign Burrell or someone of that ilk to a free agent contract, then deal Bailey and a contract similar or more (Weathers?) for Young and try him in RF, with Bruce in CF. The OF D would be horrid, but the offense for that OF would be as good, IMO, as Cincinnati's two years ago.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 11:29 AM
I'd rather get a vet who would produce more and be a better clubhouse presence as a stopgap for a couple of years, then plan for Francisco & Frazier as my 3B/LF combo of the future.

Not sure that Francisco is an answer either, but I'd rather take a flyer on him than Young. I don't see Young's plate discipline improving that much and I'm not sure about his power. I'd be more worried about his clubhouse presence - especially if he struggles.

I think the fact that Minny is ready to bail on him after just a year (apparently for a lot less than they gave to acquire him) serves as a big warning sign for me. I'm not averse to taking on young talent - I'm all for it - and I'm not that worried about giving up Bailey, but Young is not the target I'd pick.

flyer85
12-11-2008, 11:29 AM
By the way, I am not saying Young will ever be 1/100th the player that Winfield turned out to be, just using him as an example of why I am loathe to write off a player with Young's abilities at his age...and for every Dave Winfield they are a bunch of guys that aren't. Winfield is such a unique case, no minor league ABs, extreme pitchers park, using Winfield as an example isn't an argument for anything.

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:32 AM
It's a cautionary tale against simply saying: "It's 1000 at-bats. He is who his stats say he is."

No offense intended, but I find that too dismissive by half. There are reasons to be interested in Delmon Young, and reasons why he would be a decent target for a team like Cincy, which cannot simply import CC Sabathia and Mike Cameron in an orgy of spending.

M2
12-11-2008, 11:45 AM
No 23-year-old is what his stats say he is, good or bad.

Yet the more I think about it, if the Reds are going to be obsessive about landing a RH OF bat, then Young is absolutely the guy to get. The Reds need to play for a big hand. Bruce and Young coming into their own and terrorizing opposing pitchers is the sort of thing that can propel a team to sudden success.

It's also a tandem that would have four years to make its mark. They'd be something the club could build around in the short-term (or longer term if they signed contract extensions).

Much as I don't like Young's act to date and even though my initial reaction to the suggestion of adding him was "no thanks," the payoff is huge if he grows up a bit.

fearofpopvol1
12-11-2008, 11:47 AM
No 23-year-old is what his stats say he is, good or bad.

Yet the more I think about it, if the Reds are going to be obsessive about landing a RH OF bat, then Young is absolutely the guy to get. The Reds need to play for a big hand. Bruce and Young coming into their own and terrorizing opposing pitchers is the sort of thing that can propel a team to sudden success.

It's also a tandem that would have four years to make its mark. They'd be something the club could build around in the short-term (or longer term if they signed contract extensions).

Much as I don't like Young's act to date and even though my initial reaction to the suggestion of adding him was "no thanks," the payoff is huge if he grows up a bit.

I'm with you. I like the potential here. Problem is, I don't think the Twins want Bailey. What would it take to land Young?

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:49 AM
Said much better and more succinctly than I had been, M2. As always.

One other stray thought, Young might be the kind of guy that Dusty would have some success reaching and helping to "grow up a bit"...

Kc61
12-11-2008, 11:49 AM
I think the Reds plan is to have Alonso and Votto at first base and left field. I think they want a one or two-year veteran stopgap with righty power in left field now.

Delmon Young brought Matt Garza in a trade. The Reds shouldn't give up their farm system for him. Pat Burrell as a free agent, or Jermaine Dye in a trade, makes more sense, even if it means paying more salary for a year or two.

flyer85
12-11-2008, 11:53 AM
I'm with you. I like the potential here. Problem is, I don't think the Twins want Bailey. What would it take to land Young?Twins need help at 3b and pitching.

I not really sure the Reds have an interest in Young anyway. From what I can see Jocketty is trying to assemble a team he hopes can win in 2009. If that is what he is trying to do then Young is not his player. The point I was making about Young and his sub 750 OPS is that he is not likely to be greatly improved in 2009. Now if you are looking to someone who could very good in 2010 or 2011 and has upside then Young might not be a bad bet.

From what it seems like Jocketty is trying to do guys like Dye and hernandez make more sense than Young. BTW, this does not imply I am agree with Jocketty or his approach.

membengal
12-11-2008, 11:57 AM
You are perhaps right about Jock's approach, Flyer, but I think M2 makes a compelling case for why Young might be preferable, and it is certainly in line with my own thinking.

M2
12-11-2008, 11:58 AM
I think the Reds plan is to have Alonso and Votto at first base and left field. I think they want a one or two-year veteran stopgap with righty power in left field now.

That's such a bad plan.

A) It assumes nothing goes wrong with Alonso or Votto.

B) I'm trying to find one case where putting a true 1B into the OF (as opposed to an OF who has bounced to 1B and back to the OF, like Frank Robinson) worked out, haven't yet.

C) Just because that might be a plan doesn't mean that the club should ignore possibly better ideas.

D) Don't hamstring what you do today because of what you're wishing will happen tomorrow. If Young is the right price-payoff at the moment you can always adjust later.


Problem is, I don't think the Twins want Bailey. What would it take to land Young?

Possibly IF prospects. The Twins don't really have any.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 12:01 PM
That's such a bad plan.

A) It assumes nothing goes wrong with Alonso or Votto.

B) I'm trying to find one case where putting a true 1B into the OF (as opposed to an OF who has bounced to 1B and back to the OF, like Frank Robinson) worked out, haven't yet.

C) Just because that might be a plan doesn't mean that the club should ignore possibly better ideas.

D) Don't hamstring what you do today because of what you're wishing will happen tomorrow. If Young is the right price-payoff at the moment you can always adjust later.



Possibly IF prospects. The Twins don't really have any.

There are also Frazier and Francisco and even though they'd have to convert to the OF, from what I've heard, they'd have little trouble equaling Young's defense.

M2
12-11-2008, 12:08 PM
There are also Frazier and Francisco and even though they'd have to convert to the OF, from what I've heard, they'd have little trouble equaling Young's defense.

And maybe neither of those two ever makes much of a splash in the majors. You can't handcuff yourself based on maybes.

Plus, you get a better set of maybes if you trade for Young, he pans out AND the kids progress. That's not a problem, that's a bonanza.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 12:14 PM
And maybe neither of those two ever makes much of a splash in the majors. You can't handcuff yourself based on maybes.

Plus, you get a better set of maybes if you trade for Young, he pans out AND the kids progress. That's not a problem, that's a bonanza.

I understand Young has potential, but right now he's showing questionable plate discipline, defense, attitude and little power. Like I said before, if that's the way they want to go, I'm fine with it, but I think he's just as apt to be a problem in the clubhouse as an asset in the OF.

M2
12-11-2008, 12:18 PM
I understand Young has potential, but right now he's showing questionable plate discipline, defense, attitude and little power. Like I said before, if that's the way they want to go, I'm fine with it, but I think he's just as apt to be a problem in the clubhouse as an asset in the OF.

No doubt about it, he's sulked himself into almost inconceivably low value after a decade of being touted as the next big thing.

Yet I remind myself that Young is young.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 12:27 PM
No doubt about it, he's sulked himself into almost inconceivably low value after a decade of being touted as the next big thing.

Yet I remind myself that Young is young.


No one would be more thrilled than me if the Reds picked him up for a song and he realized his potential and become a model citizen, he just worries me more than most potential acquistions mentioned here.

The good news is I don't have to make the call and I trust Walt's judgemnt more than that of his predecessor's

Chip R
12-11-2008, 01:00 PM
I understand Young has potential, but right now he's showing questionable plate discipline, defense, attitude and little power. Like I said before, if that's the way they want to go, I'm fine with it, but I think he's just as apt to be a problem in the clubhouse as an asset in the OF.


His older brother was a bit of a problem child in the minors but Dimitri was no trouble at all when he was here. They are two different individuals but there seem to be a lot of similarities.

I'd love to have some 23 year old RH power hitter with great OB and defensive skills. Unfortunately, players like that are at a premium. Everybody has warts. Burrell is old and expensive, Baldelli is injured a lot and has that illness, Rivera seems to be OB challanged, Dye's too old and expensive, Marty may be the only one who would like Hopper in there, EE's never played there before and isn't likely to.

Young supposedly has a bad attitude and doesn't walk much. That may be so but even if the Reds get him, there's no reason to sign him to a long term deal. If they think he's a bad apple, they can get rid of him and not be out any money.