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View Full Version : 2009 roster taking shape?



Will M
12-11-2008, 02:25 PM
SP: Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo & Owings/Ramirez
RP: Cordero, Burton, Weathers, Rhodes, Lincoln, Bray, Masset, Ramirez/Owings
C: Hernandez & Hanigan
IF: Votto, Phillips, Keppinger ( starting SS? :thumbdown), EE, Rosales
OF: Bruce, Dickerson & ______

I suspect we will have 12 position players. Gonzo might not play at all & isn't Hopper out until July?

Walt is obviously looking for a RH bat for LF.

I think Walt wants to sign Hairston to split time in CF with Duckerson.

That still leaves two bench spots open. One will be a 5th outfielder.

Scrap Irony
12-11-2008, 02:33 PM
Owings may be that "fifth OF"/ PH bat, assuming Rosales can play OF too. I see Rosales as a possible Freel clone, with much more pop and less stupidity on the bases.

Could Cincinnati sign not only a Burrell type, but also a Baldelli?

That would provide a really solid lineup and a pretty darn good bench, with pop, speed, and OBP.

Will M
12-11-2008, 02:37 PM
Owings may be that "fifth OF"/ PH bat, assuming Rosales can play OF too. I see Rosales as a possible Freel clone, with much more pop and less stupidity on the bases.

I would think Rosales has enough athletic ability to play LF in a pinch.

I forgot about Owings's bat.

I would like to see a bench player with some LH pop in his bat.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 03:31 PM
I would think Rosales has enough athletic ability to play LF in a pinch.

I forgot about Owings's bat.

I would like to see a bench player with some LH pop in his bat.
If Owings is not in the rotation, I think he becomes both the 12th arm and 14th bat

RedEye
12-11-2008, 04:13 PM
Owings may be that "fifth OF"/ PH bat, assuming Rosales can play OF too. I see Rosales as a possible Freel clone, with much more pop and less stupidity on the bases.

Could Cincinnati sign not only a Burrell type, but also a Baldelli?

That would provide a really solid lineup and a pretty darn good bench, with pop, speed, and OBP.

Under the circumstances, I like the idea of adding Burrell and Baldelli to the roster. However, assuming Fay is correct that Walt had about $16 million to spend before the Rhodes deal, I'm not sure this could happen. If Rhodes takes up $2 million, that leaves around $14 million. I would think that Burrell alone would command that much, right?

However, I do think that $14 million would be enough to sign Rivera, Baldelli and to go find a cheap SS as well. I wouldn't be that upset if that happened, although I think some posters in the Baldelli/Rivera thread have also made a pretty convincing case against those two players.

Anyway, the more I think about it, the more I hope that Walt just signs Hairston ($4 million?) and then makes a run at Burrell or Abreu ($12-15 million per year for 3 years?)

I think I'd be pretty happy with this lineup in '09:

Hairston/Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Burrell (or Abreu) LF
Bruce RF
Encarnacion 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C
Gonzalez SS

Will M
12-11-2008, 04:19 PM
Under the circumstances, I like the idea of adding Burrell and Baldelli to the roster. However, assuming Fay is correct that Walt had about $16 million to spend before the Rhodes deal, I'm not sure this could happen. If Rhodes takes up $2 million, that leaves around $14 million. I would think that Burrell alone would command that much, right?

However, I do think that $14 million would be enough to sign Rivera, Baldelli and to go find a cheap SS as well. I wouldn't be that upset if that happened, although I think some posters in the Baldelli/Rivera thread have also made a pretty convincing case against those two players.

Anyway, the more I think about it, the more I hope that Walt just signs Hairston ($4 million?) and then makes a run at Burrell or Abreu ($12-15 million per year for 3 years?)

I think I'd be pretty happy with this lineup in '09:

Hairston/Dickerson CF
Votto 1B
Burrell (or Abreu) LF
Bruce RF
Encarnacion 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C
Gonzalez SS

Burrell will cost less than $14M. The Phils didn't offer him arbitration because they knew that in the current offseason (in a recesssion) salaries are going down. Exactly how much less I don't know. Samr situation with Dunn & Abreu.

If Hairston costs $4M for one year then pass. I like the guy but thats too much given his track record of injuries and the fact that 2008 was his best year ever.

remdog
12-11-2008, 04:28 PM
If I'm Walt there is no way that I pay Burrell $14M. For that money I would have kept Dunn (not to :deadhorse)

Rem

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 04:32 PM
If I'm Walt there is no way that I pay Burrell $14M. For that money I would have kept Dunn (not to :deadhorse)

Rem

I don't think they offer Burrell or Abreu much more than the $11.5M that Dye would get. I think the depressed market is the sole reason that they backed off the deal. It was for leverage - either against free agents or against the White Sox.

remdog
12-11-2008, 04:35 PM
^^^^I hope you're right, CB.

Rem

dfs
12-11-2008, 04:39 PM
If Hairston costs $4M for one year then pass. I like the guy but thats too much given his track record of injuries and the fact that 2008 was his best year ever.

$5m/$6M seems to be the threshold for a free agent that you expect to start. I expect Hairston won't go for less than $4M this early in the offseason.

Given the money CC got, it's hard to say prices are going to lower, but it's pretty clear that nobody is real eager to set the bar on position players.

Scrap Irony
12-11-2008, 05:29 PM
I wouldn't pay Hairston more than $2 million per.

I would pay Baldelli 2/$12 million, back-loaded, so that a one-year deal of Burrell (at $8.5 million) is also possible. Then, I'd go to war with the following:

Baldelli/ Dickerson CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Burrell LF
Bruce RF
EdE 3B
Hernandez C
Janish/ Keppinger/ AGon/ Valaika? SS

M2
12-11-2008, 05:35 PM
I would pay Baldelli 2/$12 million

Giving money to Rocco Baldelli, whose body can't produce enough ATP, is every bit as bad an idea as giving money to Eric Milton, who had a degenerative knee condition that was never going to improve.

Scrap Irony
12-11-2008, 05:37 PM
Ah, but Baldelli has a concoction of meds helping him out, according to reports in October and November. And, as a part-time player, you only ask he play four days out of seven and be available to pinch hit one the others.

That, IMO, Baldelli can do really, really well.

M2
12-11-2008, 05:42 PM
Ah, but Baldelli has a concoction of meds helping him out, according to reports in October and November. And, as a part-time player, you only ask he play four days out of seven and be available to pinch hit one the others.

That, IMO, Baldelli can do really, really well.

Until he has a concoction of meds that have been proven to work in season, I'm treating that as pure conjecture. Also, no way should the Reds be paying that kind of money for a part-timer.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 05:44 PM
$5m/$6M seems to be the threshold for a free agent that you expect to start. I expect Hairston won't go for less than $4M this early in the offseason.

Given the money CC got, it's hard to say prices are going to lower, but it's pretty clear that nobody is real eager to set the bar on position players.


I don't think cC and the Yankeers have anything to do with reality. I think Texiera & ManRam amay comeclose, then thre are a c ouple of starters (Lowe, Brunett, Sheets...) that might get something in the $18-20M range. The rest will prolly just get disappointed.

Kc61
12-11-2008, 05:49 PM
Glad to see Rosales made the team. Must have had an impressive spring.

My guess is that if Gonzo isn't ready, Janish could make the team as the backup middle infielder to get a defensive guy in there. If Gonzo is ready, then Kepp will be the main infield backup and Janish may still make the team to provide some defense.

Or the Reds may add another veteran infielder. Or, if they sign Hairston, they may view him as being able to backup short and second, and so they may add still another backup outfielder.

Right now, we don't know left field. We don't know centerfield, except we suspect Dickerson will platoon there. We aren't sure of SS/3B, although it may be the same as last year with Gonzalez when ready. There aren't many bench slots spoken for.

I think the pitching staff is taking shape. The rest of the team is pretty unsettled IMO.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 06:05 PM
Glad to see Rosales made the team. Must have had an impressive spring.

My guess is that if Gonzo isn't ready, Janish could make the team as the backup middle infielder to get a defensive guy in there. If Gonzo is ready, then Kepp will be the main infield backup and Janish may still make the team to provide some defense.

Or the Reds may add another veteran infielder. Or, if they sign Hairston, they may view him as being able to backup short and second, and so they may add still another backup outfielder.

Right now, we don't know left field. We don't know centerfield, except we suspect Dickerson will platoon there. We aren't sure of SS/3B, although it may be the same as last year with Gonzalez when ready. There aren't many bench slots spoken for.

I think the pitching staff is taking shape. The rest of the team is pretty unsettled IMO.

I'm guessing that there will be a new option on the roster @ SS come ST.

Someone along the lines of Cedeno, Aybar, Andino, Andrus, etc. More likely someone we haven't thought of yet.

Will M
12-11-2008, 06:56 PM
I'm guessing that there will be a new option on the roster @ SS come ST.

Someone along the lines of Cedeno, Aybar, Andino, Andrus, etc. More likelt someonewe haven't thought of yet.

i really hope so.

RedsManRick
12-11-2008, 06:58 PM
Ah, but Baldelli has a concoction of meds helping him out, according to reports in October and November. And, as a part-time player, you only ask he play four days out of seven and be available to pinch hit one the others.

That, IMO, Baldelli can do really, really well.

Consider that the Rays had to take him out of games in the 6th and 7th inning because he was so fatigued he could barely run. It's not just a days/week sort of thing. It's like a having a battery that you can never charge more than 60%.

SMcGavin
12-11-2008, 07:07 PM
Consider that the Rays had to take him out of games in the 6th and 7th inning because he was so fatigued he could barely run. It's not just a days/week sort of thing. It's like a having a battery that you can never charge more than 60%.

Yeah. The condition that Baldelli has isn't going to go away. Good player, it's a shame what happened to him, but the Reds should stay away.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 08:23 PM
i really hope so.


I think they will add somebody. Who, may depend on whether AGon is gonna be ready for the start of cmp, the start of the season or later. They should know for sure in the next month if they don't already.

If they're confident that he'll be ready to answer the gun, they might go after a Double or Triple-A kid they can bring along for the 2010 season (or sooner) to take over after AGon in gone. If he's not ready, then they're gonna have to go after somebody that is major league-ready.

I believe they know they need someone that gives them better defense than Keppinger and can at least give them near-average offense, unlike Janish.

RedLegSuperStar
12-11-2008, 08:39 PM
I think Dye is still the better option and both sides should settle on a deal. Dye would be a one year rental and could allow the Reds to seek a Matt Holliday or Jason Bay in 2009. Or perhaps Dickerson is bigger then most expected and is moved to LF to pave way for Stubbs. Perhaps having a OF of Bruce, Dickerson, Stubbs, and Dorn.

dfs
12-11-2008, 09:11 PM
I don't think cC and the Yankeers have anything to do with reality. I think Texiera & ManRam amay comeclose, then thre are a c ouple of starters (Lowe, Brunett, Sheets...) that might get something in the $18-20M range. The rest will prolly just get disappointed.

And that's usually the way free agents go. The midpriced guys wait till the high priced guys are gone. That sets the market. The guys the reds are looking at won't sign till Tex and ManRam have inked a deal. That will "set the market" and they'll take the best deal that they can get then.

corkedbat
12-11-2008, 10:48 PM
And that's usually the way free agents go. The midpriced guys wait till the high priced guys are gone. That sets the market. The guys the reds are looking at won't sign till Tex and ManRam have inked a deal. That will "set the market" and they'll take the best deal that they can get then.

You're right, it has always worked that way in the past, but in the past, the "next tier" guys - in this case guys like Bureell, Bradley, Abreu, Dunn, etc. - could probably expect contracts in the $14-18M range. There are signs that that may not hold true and they may end up having to settle for deals in the $10M average range because of a "soft market" this year.

It will be interesting to see if they do or if they if the losers in the Tex/ManRam sweepstakes drive prices back up.

corkedbat
12-12-2008, 12:05 AM
This should be a pivotal year, as much for how it sets up 2010 qs 09 itself. If they contiue their currentprogression, Guys like Alfonso, Frazier, Valaika, Stubbs, Dorn and Rosales could all be ready to step up to the big club in one role or another between the trade deadline. They could all just as easily be dealt or back in the minors next year, but chance are the next wave from the farm starts soon.

Some would say this argues agaisnt adding higher priced veterans- just ride the youth wave. It's one reason I like the Hernandez acquisiton and I'm all for bringing in Dye too.

With Ramon you get a veteran Catcher who has a history of working with some top pitcher, has gotten good reviews and cna probably give you league average offense for a catcher which is rare these days. I'm hoping that he really clicks with the younger hispanice starters like Volquez, Ramirez and especially cueto.

With Dye, you give a veteran hitter who has a fairly consistent big bat. I think he could come in and take some of the pressure off Votto, Bruce, Edwin and Phillips and also act as a decent role model. He's got a pretty clean past and he has a lot of experience - including playoff experience. I think it wouldn't hurt to see how he goes about his business.

I the case of both Hernandez and Dye though, the best thing may be their contracts. If both or either step up and exceed expectations or if there isn't an in-house solution available, each has an option year that, while pricey isn't totally out of the question and will allow control for another year if need be. On the flipside, if both or either does not work out or if there's a youngster kicking down the door, there's a buyout and we're not boxed into a longer contract.

I don't think you just wait for 2010 or throw your hands up and just say "We can't compete". I think you put the best team on the field and try to win as many games as you can. I can't see Jocketty or Castellini approaching it any other way.