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View Full Version : Who should we target?



Mario-Rijo
12-12-2008, 06:11 PM
After the discussion on Juan Rivera that many of us took part in I ask the following question that Cyclone put forth in that thread. Which COF is the best option for us to have a winning season? In order for that to happen we are gonna need a guy to play LF and OPS better than .850 and preferably much more. Now I know many would prefer a LHH to most of what's available RH however we all know that the organization is seemingly set on a RHH. So with that in mind I give you the options.

Now I would prefer we vote strictly on who is the best fit knowing all of the circumstances. But beggars can't be too choosy so I'll just lay out the best of the well known available to choose from. Pick one of these as the guy we should target and of course lay out whatever else you wish in your posts. One other thing I don't think it's quite fair to put anyone on this list that either isn't likely to post an .850 OPS, isn't RH or will be more expensive than 10-12 million tops which is right around what I think the Reds are looking for.

(I realize Abreu & Bradley are Switch Hitters but I think you get the idea) also take into consideration contracts, money etc.

jojo
12-12-2008, 06:20 PM
After the discussion on Juan Rivera that many of us took part in I ask the following question that Cyclone put forth in that thread. Which COF is the best option for us to have a winning season? In order for that to happen we are gonna need a guy to play LF and OPS better than .850 and preferably more. Now I know many would prefer a LHH to most of what's available RH however we all know that the organization is seemingly set on a RHH. So with that in mind I give you the options.

Now I would prefer we vote strictly on who is the best fit knowing all of the circumstances. But beggars can't be too choosy so I'll just lay out the best of the well know available to choose from. Pick one of these as the guy we should target and of course lay out whatever else you wish in your posts. One other thing I don't think it's quite fair to put anyone on tis list that either isn't likely to post an .850 OPS, isn't RH or will be more expensive than 10-12 million tops which is right around what I think the Reds are looking for.

Obtainable (in theory): Manny. Not obtainable: Ryan Braun/Markalis. Realistic: Randy Winn.

Center and short would still need to be addressed IMHO.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2008, 06:26 PM
Public results!

Jeremy Hermida...

Mario-Rijo
12-12-2008, 06:27 PM
Obtainable (in theory): Manny. Not obtainable: Ryan Braun/Markalis. Realistic: Randy Winn.

Center and short would still need to be addressed IMHO.

Of course I should have added that assuming all other pieces were in place or at least assumed they were to be obtained.

Wouldn't Winn be an OK CF option?

RedEye
12-12-2008, 06:28 PM
I'd like to see Hermida or Delmon Young coupled with a young SS.

BoydsOfSummer
12-12-2008, 06:30 PM
It's really simple, folks. Sign Manny and Texiera, move Bruce to CF and Votto to COF. Done!

Mario-Rijo
12-12-2008, 06:31 PM
I'd like to see Hermida or Delmon Young coupled with a young SS.

I think we all would prefer someone like that, but it doesn't likely make us contenders in the short term. An .850+ OPS '09 bat puts us in the neighborhoood assuming all other area's are cleared up.

*BaseClogger*
12-12-2008, 06:34 PM
I think we all would prefer someone like that, but it doesn't likely make us contenders in the short term. An .850+ OPS '09 bat puts us in the neighborhoood assuming all other area's are cleared up.

I like Hermida's defense. I think it can make up a big chunk of the difference between his bat and the others listed. Plus he's been playing in a pitcher's park. I think he could easily be a more valuable player than Dye in 2009. And with the money saved, we can spend on something else and not be crippled for the future...

Will M
12-12-2008, 06:43 PM
Other:

1. trade for JJ Hardy then sign Abreu.

Imagine this lineup:
CF Dickerson
SS Hardy
LF Abreu (L)
1B Votto (L)
3B EE
RF Bruce (L)
2B Phillips
C Hernandez/Hanigan

2. Beltre then move EE to LF

either of these would be good. trading for Dye gives us an ugly LF-3B-SS defensively.

Jpup
12-13-2008, 12:29 PM
If the Reds could afford it, would you guys be for giving Manny 3 years at 60+ million? The Dodgers have offered him 2 @ 45 and it might take 3 @ 70 for someone to get him.

I know he has all of that baggage and I have never really liked the guy, but he's one of the best hitters of all time and still one of the best in the game. If the Reds signed him and got another player or two via trades, I would have to think they would be World Series contenders or playoff locks at the least. Is that worth 70 million to the Reds? You would think he would sale a lot of tickets as well.

edabbs44
12-13-2008, 12:35 PM
Abreu / Dye: Oldish

Bradley: Lunatic and injury prone

Burrell: Not perfect, but should produce for the length of his contract as long as it isn't too long.

RedsManRick
12-13-2008, 01:15 PM
I picked Abreu, as I did in the prior thread. But after reading an analysis of his defense over at fangraphs, I'm not so sure.

HokieRed
12-13-2008, 01:19 PM
Other=Beltre, EE to left.

Rounding Third
12-13-2008, 01:37 PM
I would probably go with Hermida if the rumor is true that he can be had for Owings or Bailey.

Boss-Hog
12-13-2008, 01:49 PM
I would probably go with Hermida if the rumor is true that he can be had for Owings or Bailey.
Same here, but I'd be surprised if he could be had for Owings.

Highlifeman21
12-13-2008, 01:51 PM
I picked Abreu, as I did in the prior thread. But after reading an analysis of his defense over at fangraphs, I'm not so sure.

But would Abreu be any worse defensively in LF than Adam Dunn?

It's possible that he is worse defensively than Adam Dunn, but if LF is the ultimately destination for Abreu, does his lack of defensive really matter?

Jpup
12-13-2008, 07:40 PM
But would Abreu be any worse defensively in LF than Adam Dunn?

It's possible that he is worse defensively than Adam Dunn, but if LF is the ultimately destination for Abreu, does his lack of defensive really matter?

Abreu would be night and day better than Adam Dunn in left field. Anyone that suggests otherwise should be considered a little silly. :help:

TRF
12-13-2008, 07:42 PM
in order, Dukes, Young, Hermida.

I'd be thrilled with any of those three.

SteelSD
12-13-2008, 09:08 PM
Abreu would be night and day better than Adam Dunn in left field. Anyone that suggests otherwise should be considered a little silly. :help:

Prior to his exit from Philly, Phillies fans were all over Abreu for what they perceived to be a lack of range and a lack of effort in the field. And considering that Dunn's nearer a neutral to minor liability in left than he is a major liability, it's very possible that an age-35 Abreu could be worse.

pahster
12-13-2008, 09:22 PM
Prior to his exit from Philly, Phillies fans were all over Abreu for what they perceived to be a lack of range and a lack of effort in the field. And considering that Dunn's nearer a neutral to minor liability in left than he is a major liability, it's very possible that an age-35 Abreu could be worse.

I don't know how true it is, but I've heard that Abreu refuses to dive or make plays near walls.

Jpup
12-14-2008, 12:23 AM
Prior to his exit from Philly, Phillies fans were all over Abreu for what they perceived to be a lack of range and a lack of effort in the field. And considering that Dunn's nearer a neutral to minor liability in left than he is a major liability, it's very possible that an age-35 Abreu could be worse.

I watched the guy play, at least 75 games last year, and there is no way that he is not a better defender than Adam Dunn. He has a very good arm. No, he doesn't have the cannon he used to, but he throws pretty well.

Blitz Dorsey
12-14-2008, 12:49 AM
I voted for Jermaine Dye. Take a good look at his numbers over the last 3 years and let me know what you think. And yeah, he will be 35 by next season, but I don't foresee too much of a drop-off.

AmarilloRed
12-14-2008, 12:57 AM
I voted for Jermaine Dye. Take a good look at his numbers over the last 3 years and let me know what you think. And yeah, he will be 35 by next season, but I don't foresee too much of a drop-off.

Look at Dye's defensive numbers as well. His -72 is the worst at RF from 2006-2008 according to the Plus-Minus System. There really is not a good defensive LF available in free agency, though.

SteelSD
12-14-2008, 02:12 AM
I watched the guy play, at least 75 games last year, and there is no way that he is not a better defender than Adam Dunn. He has a very good arm. No, he doesn't have the cannon he used to, but he throws pretty well.

Having an arm is only part of defensive proficiency. But Abreu's 2008 season defensively is one of those "linchpin" seasons for which I wait for an explanation. His UZR (defensive Runs above/below average) was -25.2 Runs. If that were true, it would dwarf the very worst season Adam Dunn has posted in the field, even when translated; and Abreu's negative defensive value would actually project him as a negative-Win player versus league average, even in LF.

I'm not saying I buy anything other than the concept that Abreu isn't anything close to a good defensive player at his age. I'll allow folks who've tied their concepts of defensive player value to things like UZR to respond further.

Jpup
12-14-2008, 03:07 AM
Having an arm is only part of defensive proficiency. But Abreu's 2008 season defensively is one of those "linchpin" seasons for which I wait for an explanation. His UZR (defensive Runs above/below average) was -25.2 Runs. If that were true, it would dwarf the very worst season Adam Dunn has posted in the field, even when translated; and Abreu's negative defensive value would actually project him as a negative-Win player versus league average, even in LF.

I'm not saying I buy anything other than the concept that Abreu isn't anything close to a good defensive player at his age. I'll allow folks who've tied their concepts of defensive player value to things like UZR to respond further.

defensive stats are horrible IMO. Watch the guy play.

jojo
12-14-2008, 09:47 AM
A look at Abreu's defense in 2008 via PBP-based metrics:

CHONE: -11
PMR: -12
Dewan's (+/-)= -20
bUZR: -25

It's pretty simply really-Abrue has been a minus defender for quite a while but for what ever reason he uniformly stunk last year. Looking at that survey, I'm comfortable saying he was a -15 defender last season. Using such a survey to look at his past several years, I'm comfortable saying that his true skill level is probably captured by an interval of -10 to -15 runs with the likelihood being he's worse than better if he's outside that range in '09 given he's aging.

Abrue's value is all derived from his bat. Given the extent of his lousy defense and the positional adjustment ding for playing a corner position, he has to be a two win bat just to be a league average player (in other words his defense and the positional adjustment eat up 2 wins ).

His projections suggest he should be expected to do that though he shouldn't be expected to be a whole more than that. The point is he's going to cost a lot of money (and maybe several years) and he isn't going to be the impact player that some might associate with his name.