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redsfandan
12-13-2008, 04:33 AM
Interesting Non-Tenders
By Tim Dierkes [December 13 at 1:20am CST]
More than 30 new free agents entered the pool tonight as the non-tender deadline passed. A few of the more interesting names:

Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B/LF. I don't know what the Astros are going to do at third base now, but they decided they couldn't afford Wigginton. The 31 year-old hit a strong .285/.350/.526 in 429 plate appearances. He probably doesn't mind reaching free agency early in a weak third baseman market. The Indians and Twins still have vacancies.
Joe Nelson, RP. Wow...a 2.00 ERA still gets you non-tendered in Florida. He's not that good, but he had a huge strikeout rate and is definitely a useful reliever.
Daniel Cabrera, SP. This guy was once considered very nasty to face, at times posting big strikeout and groundball rates. With a fresh start, who knows.
Joey Gathright OF, Willy Taveras, OF. For a couple of burners their recent plus/minus ratings in center field are poor. And you can't steal first base.
Jonny Gomes, OF. He's got pop, and destroyed lefties outside of this year. That's about it though.
Takashi Saito, RP. Dominant big league numbers, but he's a huge question mark after having platelet-rich plasma injected into his elbow in an experimental procedure. Sounds like something out of a sci-fi movie.
Tim Redding, SP. Probably good for a sub-5.00 ERA as a fifth starter.
Chris Capuano, LH-SP. The Brewers may re-sign him. Capuano had his second Tommy John surgery in May. He was a useful mid-rotation guy in 2005-06.
Here are the other non-tenders that are now FA's:

LHP John Bale
C Jamie Burke
IF/OF Aaron Miles, LHP Randy Flores, LHP Tyler Johnson
OF Norris Hopper, RHP Gary Majewski, RHP Matt Belisle
RHP Doug Mathis
RHP Lance Cormier
RHP Denny Bautista
OF Reggie Abercrombie
RHP Scott Proctor, RHP Yhency Brazoban, SS Angel Berroa
RHP Clay Hensley and RHP Charlie Haeger
RHP Chris Britton and OF Justin Christian
C Kevin Cash
LHP Chuck James
IF/OF Chris Burke, C Robby Hammock, LHP Wil Ledezma, OF Jeff Salazar

There are quite a few players on both lists that could have value (and I don't mean the now former Reds).

edit: A mod can combine this with the other thread. My mistake.

Newman4
12-13-2008, 11:16 AM
Padres non-tendered RHP Clay Hensley.

Hensley went 11-10 with a 3.56 ERA in 29 starts for the Padres in 2006, but he hurt his shoulder in 2007 and didn't show his former stuff after coming back last season. He's not hopeless yet, but the Padres weren't going to go to arbitration with him. The Reds are one of the teams that may try to pick him up.

Royals non-tendered outfielder Joey Gathright.

Gathright was an asset while hitting .307/.371/.342 in 228 at-bats for the Royals in 2007, but he fell off to .254/.311/.272 in 279 at-bats last season. We could see the speedster ending up in the NL West with the Rockies or Padres. The Reds are another possibility, though they'll probably target Willy Taveras first.

wojo1025
12-13-2008, 11:49 AM
Before his injury I thought Clay was going to be something special. I'm thinking he had a good start or two after the injury but he was never able to put it all back together. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him.

Gathright...hmm...I am not sure he's what I'd look for honestly. Not sure he's an upgrade from Dickerson.

NeilHamburger
12-13-2008, 01:29 PM
I really want the Reds to go after Ty Wigginton. Look at the numbers he put up last season. If you give him 500 ab's, playing half his games in GABP he could put up a .285 30 HR and .350-.370 OBP. He can play 3rd, and could be a stopgap until the prospects are ready enabling you to deal EE to San Fran. for Sanchez.

I'd really like the reds to sign him and Rivera.


Lineup could be:

Dickerson cf
Rivera left
Votto 1st
Wigginton 3rd
Bruce right
Phillips 2nd
Hernandez catcher
Kepp/Gonzo short


That could be decent, prob. not great, but enough to win. And look at the rotation

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Cueto
Sanchez

That team, if a few people have good years, could win 85 or so games, be in it all year, and maybe with a deal at the trade deadline win the wildcard


Plus you vastly improve outfield defense with Rivera, Dickerson and Bruce. Plus improve defense a little at third with Ty. Hell, if you include a prospect arm with EE you could prob. get Burris at short, vastly improving infield D and outfield D. I think that is a fairly realistic way of improving the team

redsfandan
12-13-2008, 02:22 PM
Reds Interested In Taveras, Wigginton, Miles
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 13 at 12:59pm CST]
Reds GM Walk Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon that he's interested in three players who became free agents after being non-tendered by their former clubs: Willy Taveras, Ty Wigginton and Aaron Miles.

Jocketty said Taveras could play in center field, Wigginton's a backup in case they don't get their first choice of outfielders and Miles could work if the Reds don't re-sign Jerry Hairston.

Wigginton played in the outfield 30 times for the Astros this year and that was the most ever for him.

"Miles, if we don't sign [Jerry] Hairston," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said during a break from Redsfest on Saturday afternoon. "Wigginton if we don't find the outfielder we want. Taveras could be the center fielder -type guy."

NeilHamburger
12-13-2008, 02:25 PM
From Fay: Reds very interested in Taveras

The Reds have varying degrees of interest in three players who were non-tendered:


--They are most interested in Willy Taveras. In fact, Walt Jocketty called Taveras agent Saturday morning. “I was the first call. He’s not going to sign on the first,” Jocketty said. “I think it’s going to take some time. I let him know there’s interest. We think he could fill that center field/leadoff role.” Taveras, non-tendered by Colorado, is only 26. He hit .251 with an .308 on-base percentage last year. He led the majors with 68 steals in the 75 attempts. He was much better at the plate in 2007, hitting .320 with a .367 on-base. He lacks power (career slugging of .337).


--They are also interested in the Ty Wigginton, non-tendered by Houston. But, unlike the case of Taveras, there’s no opening at Wigginton’s natural position. “It kind of complicates things,” Jocketty said. “It involves possibly moving Edwin to left. We’ve got to talk about. We didn’t expect him to be non-tendered.” Wigginton, 31, hit .285/.350/.526 overall. His numbers against left-handers were off the charts: .340/.424/.631.


--They are also interested in the Aaron Miles, but only if Jerry Hairston Jr. doesn’t re-sign. “I’ve had Aaron before,” Jocketty said. Miles was non-tendered by St. Louis. Miles, 31, hit .317/.355/.382 last year. He played second, third, shortstop and all three outfield positions. He even pitched a scoreless inning.

redhawk61
12-13-2008, 02:44 PM
Frankly, I don't mind Taveras, as opposed to others. Yes he is not the ideal, but he is no Corey Patterson. Yes last year he had a bad year getting on base, but still his career OBP is .331 with a .361 OBP in 2006, as opposed to CP's .291 career OBP. He would be a nice piece to use with his speed, as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner/2-3 starts a week.

Wigginton........where do I sign

Miles.......would be a great addition off the bench, and isn't injury prone like JH

WildcatFan
12-13-2008, 03:00 PM
If all of this is true, I guess I was wrong about Walt looking to spend the rest of the cash on a big right-handed hitter. Sounds like he's going to do a little here and a little There. I really don't want Taveras. He was atrocious in Colorado last year. He's had one good season at the plate, and he has subpar defense in center even though he can fly. I would much rather have Hairston or Dickerson in the leadoff spot. Taveras is a career pinch runner. Wigginton would be a nice addition, even if it means left field for him. He had a monster power year last season. I'll pass on Miles, especially if they sign Wigginton.

CesarGeronimo
12-13-2008, 03:07 PM
Frankly, I don't mind Taveras, as opposed to others. Yes he is not the ideal, but he is no Corey Patterson. Yes last year he had a bad year getting on base, but still his career OBP is .331 with a .361 OBP in 2006, as opposed to CP's .291 career OBP. He would be a nice piece to use with his speed, as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner/2-3 starts a week.

Wigginton........where do I sign

Miles.......would be a great addition off the bench, and isn't injury prone like JH

You know that Dusty would start Taveras in CF and have him bat leadoff, right?

fewfirstchoice
12-13-2008, 03:15 PM
Sign Taveras to a 2 yr. 45 mil. deal.I would like to see EE traded to SF for Sanchez. They are known to be looking for a young 3B type and are willing to give up Sanchez to get him. They also have interest in EE. Then I wouldnt mind seeing the Reds sign Wigginton to replace EE if the price is right. I also would look to sign Miles over Hairston Jr. Miles will be cheapier and will probably take only a 1 yr deal to get him done. The uncle Walt has to get Burrell signed. I know alot of people are against signing Burrell. But it seems he and Dye are Walts 2 main choice. Burrell is younger, and probably has more power at this stage of there careers. Burrell would be a great opinion to sign to a 3 year 36mil. deal with a ortion for the 4th year at 14mil. That would make it a 50 mil. deal with the option. I would make it vesting. So do those moves and here is what the roster looks like.

c- Hernandez 1) Taveras
1B- Votto 2) Phillips
2B- Phillips 3) Votto
3B- Wigginton 4) Burrell
SS- Gonzo 5) Bruce
LF- Burrell 6) Wiginton
CF- Taveras 7) Hernandez
RF- Bruce 8) Gonzo
Thats a pretty good looking lineup.

Starting Rotation
1) Harang
2) Volquez
3) Arroyo
4) Cueto
5) Sanchez
That would probably be the top rotation in the central and maybe the NL, unless the cubbies get Peavy.

Bull Pen
Cl- Cordero
R- Burton
R- Lincoln
R- Weathers
R- Owings
L- Rhodes
L- Bray
Solid pen not spectacluar but very solid.

Bench
Keppinger IN/OF
Dickerson OF
Hannigan C
Hopper OF
A. Miles IN/OF
thats a very defensive minded bench that can make contact when they need to at the plate.With this roster your looking at probably 85-86 million in salary. this would be a solid team if Walt can come up with the money.

redhawk61
12-13-2008, 03:21 PM
Sign Taveras to a 2 yr. 45 mil. deal.I would like to see EE traded to SF for Sanchez. They are known to be looking for a young 3B type and are willing to give up Sanchez to get him. They also have interest in EE. Then I wouldnt mind seeing the Reds sign Wigginton to replace EE if the price is right. I also would look to sign Miles over Hairston Jr. Miles will be cheapier and will probably take only a 1 yr deal to get him done. The uncle Walt has to get Burrell signed. I know alot of people are against signing Burrell. But it seems he and Dye are Walts 2 main choice. Burrell is younger, and probably has more power at this stage of there careers. Burrell would be a great opinion to sign to a 3 year 36mil. deal with a ortion for the 4th year at 14mil. That would make it a 50 mil. deal with the option. I would make it vesting. So do those moves and here is what the roster looks like.

Thats a little steep for Taveras don't you think?

jmac
12-13-2008, 03:55 PM
Thats a little steep for Taveras don't you think?

Yeah one more year and we can get Manny.
:D

Kingspoint
12-13-2008, 04:00 PM
Frankly, I don't mind Taveras, as opposed to others. Yes he is not the ideal, but he is no Corey Patterson. Yes last year he had a bad year getting on base, but still his career OBP is .331 with a .361 OBP in 2006, as opposed to CP's .291 career OBP. He would be a nice piece to use with his speed, as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner/2-3 starts a week.

Wigginton........where do I sign

Miles.......would be a great addition off the bench, and isn't injury prone like JH

The more at-bats Taveras gets, the more experience he gets, the worse he gets. His age last year was one where you either improve, or you've already hit your ceiling in the Majors. He's already hit his ceiling in the Majors. His future is behind him, thus he was non-tendered by a team that finished under .500 last year. 500 plate appearances last year and his SLG of .296 and OBP of .306 were abysmal. He IS Corey Patterson.

The thought of Dusty Baker being given the opportunity to play Taveras makes me want to puke.

Kingspoint
12-13-2008, 04:02 PM
Put Edwin in Left Field if he's not going to play 3rd. Trading him for Sanchez is ridiculous and is selling low. He's got 5 prime years ahead of him, years that will only be better than any he's had so far. He's still only 25.

Stephenk29
12-13-2008, 04:48 PM
Doesn't anyone else think Taveras is just crap?

He would be even more worthless with Baker controlling him.

Emin3mShady07
12-13-2008, 04:55 PM
Frankly, I don't mind Taveras, as opposed to others. Yes he is not the ideal, but he is no Corey Patterson. Yes last year he had a bad year getting on base, but still his career OBP is .331 with a .361 OBP in 2006, as opposed to CP's .291 career OBP. He would be a nice piece to use with his speed, as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner/2-3 starts a week.

Wigginton........where do I sign

Miles.......would be a great addition off the bench, and isn't injury prone like JH

2007, the year Taveras OBP was .361 was all BABIP for Taveras, LD 16.9% BABIP .370. http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?lastName=taveras That's a huge difference and I think Taveras' true skill level was represented in his production this past season. I really don't think he would help the reds and batting him leadoff would be giving the worst hitter the most opportunities to make more outs. Taveras is really bad.

redsfandan
12-13-2008, 05:42 PM
... The uncle Walt has to get Burrell signed. I know alot of people are against signing Burrell. But it seems he and Dye are Walts 2 main choice. Burrell is younger, and probably has more power at this stage of there careers. Burrell would be a great opinion to sign to a 3 year 36mil. deal with a ortion for the 4th year at 14mil. That would make it a 50 mil. deal with the option. I would make it vesting. ...

I'd be ok with Burrell but 4 years/$50 million?? No thanks. If Walt does pick up Burrell I hope it's only 1-2 years and less per year as well.

fewfirstchoice
12-13-2008, 06:36 PM
I meant for a or to be between the 4 and 5. Should have said 4 or 5 mil. a year, not 45 mil. sorry.

WillRich
12-13-2008, 06:52 PM
Frankly, I don't mind Taveras, as opposed to others. Yes he is not the ideal, but he is no Corey Patterson. Yes last year he had a bad year getting on base, but still his career OBP is .331 with a .361 OBP in 2006, as opposed to CP's .291 career OBP. He would be a nice piece to use with his speed, as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner/2-3 starts a week.
I like Taveras he's incredibly fast and gets caught stealing hardly ever, but Ive got a question. Why does everyone seem to be picking on EE he's not the best fielder but he's 25 and last year he hit 26 homeruns which lead the Reds, forget Wiggington he could be a decent back up but I don't think he could hit nearly 30 homeruns consistently. Miles would be a pretty good pickup though.

Emin3mShady07
12-13-2008, 07:32 PM
I'd be ok with Burrell but 4 years/$50 million?? No thanks. If Walt does pick up Burrell I hope it's only 1-2 years and less per year as well.

I don't think Burrell is going to take only 1 or two years. Look at Ibanez's deal. he is 37 and got 3 years. Burrell will get more than 1-2 unfortunately for the reds and walt jockety. I know what you are saying, I just don't think it will happen.

BurgervilleBuck
12-13-2008, 08:02 PM
I'm definitely good with Wiggington. I'd be happy with Taveras but only if they signed Wiggie. :D

Slyder
12-13-2008, 09:14 PM
From Fay:
--They are most interested in Willy Taveras. In fact, Walt Jocketty called Taveras agent Saturday morning. “I was the first call. He’s not going to sign on the first,” Jocketty said. “I think it’s going to take some time. I let him know there’s interest. We think he could fill that center field/leadoff role.” Taveras, non-tendered by Colorado, is only 26. He hit .251 with an .308 on-base percentage last year. He led the majors with 68 steals in the 75 attempts. He was much better at the plate in 2007, hitting .320 with a .367 on-base. He lacks power (career slugging of .337).

Please, Please, Please do NOT give Duhhhsty the implements of his own destruction. Willy Taveras may not be as bad as Corey Patterson but both are free swingers. Duhhsty will use him EXACTLY as he did Corey with "be aggressive" approach and (if Phillips hit 2nd) would be a pitchers dream... Even with Votto batting 3rd facing a 8 pitch inning to start the game. Even though Votto batting 3rd is far from guarenteed since we saw Duhhhsty's Respect mantra when you have an aging big bat, regardless of results.


--They are also interested in the Ty Wigginton, non-tendered by Houston. But, unlike the case of Taveras, there’s no opening at Wigginton’s natural position. “It kind of complicates things,” Jocketty said. “It involves possibly moving Edwin to left. We’ve got to talk about. We didn’t expect him to be non-tendered.” Wigginton, 31, hit .285/.350/.526 overall. His numbers against left-handers were off the charts: .340/.424/.631.

If he's brought in to platoon in LF or platoon at 3b with EE in LF thats fine. If you pay him to be an everyday player I am concerned.


--They are also interested in the Aaron Miles, but only if Jerry Hairston Jr. doesn’t re-sign. “I’ve had Aaron before,” Jocketty said. Miles was non-tendered by St. Louis. Miles, 31, hit .317/.355/.382 last year. He played second, third, shortstop and all three outfield positions. He even pitched a scoreless inning.

I would rather have Miles. He's going to probably get less, isnt ideal for SS according to "stats" (Seem to be comparable to Hairston last year). Let someone else take the risk on Hairston and if he can stay healthy.

Henry Clay
12-13-2008, 11:35 PM
I haven't posted in a while -- since this site changed the rules -- but the Willy Taveras comments here and on the main board have me bothered. There's no question the guy had a poor year last year in terms of OBP, and he has never been a slugger. Nonetheless, his .367 OBP and 55 SB in 2007 were very good, especially when combined with his defensive skills. His Baseball Prospectus writeup from last winter confirms this. It took a very different tone from what we're reading -- and writing -- now. Taveras was described as a "great" defensive center fielder and a "critical part of the Rockies' performance." They continued: "If healthy, he's a down-ballot MVP candidate thanks to his speed-driven batting average and Gold Glove-quality defense in center." Those comments may be hyperbole, but they're only one year old and from a publication this site inherently trusts -- and rightly so. It wouldn't give me any heartburn if the Reds rolled the dice on Taveras. I just hope they don't put much on the table before they roll. And I hope they are planning to roll again to bring some additional middle-of-the lineup OPS to the team to balance the offense and create RBI.

Keep in mind that if the BP folks are correct, and Taveras shows that kind of promise, the Reds could have two Gold Glove caliber defenders up the middle, as well as a burner who --if he repeats 2007-- would be getting on base enough to make us all forget Mr. Patterson. If Taveras' stock has fallen as far as those in my 401K, he's worth a gamble.

Emin3mShady07
12-13-2008, 11:50 PM
Well, the gold glove really doesn't mean anything. Nate McClouth won the gold glove this year and he was statistically the worst defensive CFer in the majors according to the fielding Bible. Additionally, the fielding bible has also never indicated Taveras to be anything above average on defense, so I would have to say it is indeed hyperbole to say that Taveras is "great" on defense. Also, I would say that Taveras has a poor arm as well and that certainly does help his case on defense. As for 2007, Taveras' year was all BABIP. He got "lucky" one year and it inflates his career statistics making it seem like Taveras would be an ok everyday CFer, which I think is a terrible mistake. Plus if the Reds did sign him, I am sure the Dust Bag would bat him first which is probably the worst possible thing he could do.

akron3344
12-14-2008, 12:07 AM
ramirez should be in the rotation

TheNext44
12-14-2008, 03:39 PM
I first want to make clear that I do not want the Reds to sign Willie Taveras! However, it is not for the reasons as most posters


I personally think that Taveras is done. I can’t see him being a sucessful major league hitter anymore. (Yes that does mean that I thought he was one...once, but more on that later.) Taveras is a one trick hitter and the league has figured out that trick.


At the end of last year, while watching a Rockies game, (it was a slow night) I heard the announcers proclaim that Taveras was very unlucky this year, and that the same balls that were falling in for him the last few years were all being caught. To me that sounds like a sign that the league has figured out how to pitch to him and how do defend him.


The stats back this up. From 2005-07, Taveras’ BABIP was around 50 points higher than his line drive rate would suggest. That is a huge difference, but it can be explained by his speed. Taveras’ speed lead to many infield hits, bunt hits, and balls slapped between infielders and popped just over the infielders but in front of the outfielders. This would create a big bump over his expected BABIP from his line drive rate.


However, in 2008, his BABIP was actually around 25 points lower than what his line drive would be expected to create. That is a huge fall, from 50 points above to 25 points below, or a 75 point fall. Normally a drop would suggest that he was just unlucky, but that is unexplainedly unlucky. No one is that unlucky. I think a more likely explaination is that league figured out that he has no power, and pitched him aggressively and defended him like they would a pitcher. With the infield and outfield always playing in (and probably to the other field), it was near impossible for Taveras to get the infield, bunt, and slap hits that he was getting. And since he doesn’t have the power to make them pay for pitching and playing him that way, there is no need for them to change.


So that is why I think that Taveras will never hit decently enough to start anymore.



Now to defend his past performance.


Before the league figured out that he had only one offensive weapon, his speed, Taveras was actually a decent run producer, if you factor in his steals.


I know Sabermetrics has brainwashed us all into thinking that steals are over rated, and they are. They are not nearly as valuable as reaching base in the first place or hitting the ball out of the park. But they do have significant value, especially when they are achieved at an 85% success rate, like Taveras has done.


I am not a Sabermatrician, so I have no idea if I am right about this, but the following way of determining the value of a steal does make sense to me. I welcome smarter stat guys to tell me what I did wrong, but until then, this is what I figure.


For every steal, you add a base to a players total bases in figuring out his SLG. This makes sense, since it is like he hit a double. Then for every caught stealing, you subtract a hit in figuring out his OBP. It is like the batter never reached base and was out for that AB.


If you use Taveras’ career numbers, and average them out for 162 games, adjusted for stolen bases, his numbers would be .313 OBP and .423 SLG instead of .331 OBP and .337 SLG. This would jump his Runs Created from 66 to 78. Basically, the adjusted number would make him a league average CF, almost exactly. Now, you would have to assume that a league average CFwould also have some steals, so that should be adjusted too, but still, adjusting for stolen bases, Taveras would be a slightly below league average CF offensively, which is a much better opinion of him that I had before I made these adjustments.


So basically, before the league figured him out, Taveras was a slightly below league average CF, which means that with his fielding back then (it seems to have declined recently) and his base running ability, which Bill James said he was the best in the majors last year, he would have been a decent addition to the Reds. However, since the league has figured him out, and it appears that his best days are behind him, he should at best only be signed to be a fifth outfielder to be used mostly for late inning pinch running.

Emin3mShady07
12-14-2008, 04:23 PM
That post is very insightful and I have often contemplated whether or not speed affected BABIP and it inevitably has to, because I doubt a bunt counts as a line drive and in the Baseball reference splits, hit tracjectory says that Bunts indeed do not count as liners. In 2007, Taveras had 37 bunt hits. He went 37 for 52 (59 PAs) in at-bats where he successfully placed a bunt in play and he ended up with 7 sacrifice bunts. None of those hits counted as line drives, thus obviously hitting .712 in bunt attempts would increase the BABIP without upping the line drive percentage.

As for adjusting Taveras' numbers with steal, the caught stealing part does make a lot of sense seeing as if a guy hits a single and is then caught stealing he nullifies his presence on base thus making it essentially the same as grounding out. But in these cases, you must also take away a base from his slugging, because a single counts toward OBP and SLG. However, if he hits a single to right and a runner moves from first to third and then Taveras is caught trying to steal second, it would be ok to just take away credit from his OBP and not SLG because his SLG did actually have an impact on the game unlike those situation with no one on base in front of him.

And as for a steal adding a base to slugging, almost the reverse is true. If there is no one on and he singles and steal second, then yes, a single has been turned into a double. However consider the same situation with a runner on first and taveras singling to right. The runner moves up to third and then taveras successfully steals second. Crediting Taveras with a double in this situation is not fair because that runner may have scored with a double in the gap and thus SLG is much more important in this type of situation.

The adjusted numbers would be very close IMO, but I would say because of Taveras' large number of successful SBs, some would inevitably would have to come with other runners on base in front of him, I would say his runs created would be a little lower than your estimate of 78, but not much.

TheNext44
12-14-2008, 04:33 PM
That post is very insightful and I have often contemplated whether or not speed affected BABIP and it inevitably has to, because I doubt a bunt counts as a line drive and in the Baseball reference splits, hit tracjectory says that Bunts indeed do not count as liners. In 2007, Taveras had 37 bunt hits. He went 37 for 52 (59 PAs) in at-bats where he successfully placed a bunt in play and he ended up with 7 sacrifice bunts. None of those hits counted as line drives, thus obviously hitting .712 in bunt attempts would increase the BABIP without upping the line drive percentage.

As for adjusting Taveras' numbers with steal, the caught stealing part does make a lot of sense seeing as if a guy hits a single and is then caught stealing he nullifies his presence on base thus making it essentially the same as grounding out. But in these cases, you must also take away a base from his slugging, because a single counts toward OBP and SLG. However, if he hits a single to right and a runner moves from first to third and then Taveras is caught trying to steal second, it would be ok to just take away credit from his OBP and not SLG because his SLG did actually have an impact on the game unlike those situation with no one on base in front of him.

And as for a steal adding a base to slugging, almost the reverse is true. If there is no one on and he singles and steal second, then yes, a single has been turned into a double. However consider the same situation with a runner on first and taveras singling to right. The runner moves up to third and then taveras successfully steals second. Crediting Taveras with a double in this situation is not fair because that runner may have scored with a double in the gap and thus SLG is much more important in this type of situation.

The adjusted numbers would be very close IMO, but I would say because of Taveras' large number of successful SBs, some would inevitably would have to come with other runners on base in front of him, I would say his runs created would be a little lower than your estimate of 78, but not much.

Thanks! I knew there would be someone smarter than me on this stuff who would be able to correct me on this.

The caught stealing problem is an easy fix, but I am not sure how to handle the stolen base problem for the SLG. And you are dead on, the whole reason why SLG is so imortant is that you advance the runners, and SB do not do this. I am sure their as multiplier that can be used to even things out, say .8 or .625, but I would have no idea how to figure that out. Something to look into if I ever have month or two with nothing to do. lol.

Thanks again! :thumbup:

GoReds33
12-14-2008, 05:19 PM
I have no problem with Taveras as a starting centerfielder. The problem I, aswell as many other have, is with him hitting leadoff. He's no more than a faster, right handed, Corey Patterson. If he were to hit seventh or eigth, I have no problem with it. His speed combined with the likes of Bruce and Dickerson would be a welcome reprieve from last season.

ChatterRed
12-14-2008, 07:00 PM
I don't mind any of the three at the right price.

redsfandan
12-14-2008, 08:58 PM
Four Teams Interested In Wigginton By Tim Dierkes [December 14 at 6:09pm CST]

According to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Indians, Giants, Pirates, and Reds have expressed interest in new free agent Ty Wigginton. Neal says the Twins have admired Wiggy for years as well. He adds that Wigginton was nearly dealt to the Giants before being non-tendered. Ken Davidoff thinks the Mets should look into it.

What will it take to sign Wigginton? Casey Blake's three-year, $17.5MM deal might be optimistic, but Neal figures Wigginton could get a similar average annual salary. Still might take two years to sign Wigginton though. Beyond Joe Crede, there's not much else out there for third base.

$5 million isn't cheap for someone that could be a backup on the Reds. Although Wigginton, Rivera, and Taveras combined would probably be cheaper than someone like Burrell alone.


Odds and Ends: Nelson, Atkins, Taveras By Tim Dierkes [December 14 at 6:43pm CST]

Bruce Jenkins says the Rockies would trade Garrett Atkins for Jonathan Sanchez.
Troy Renck says Willy Taveras has received interest from the Reds, Nationals, and White Sox.

With all the outfielders they already have and how much they're expected to lose I think the Nats would be a distant third unless they overpay.

DannyB
12-15-2008, 07:41 AM
:rolleyes:

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Posted by JohnFay at 12/15/2008 5:41 AM EST on Cincinnati.com

The Reds signed Laynce Nix to a minor league contract. Or at least his agent e-mailed me and said they had. Nix, 28, has been hampered by injuries the last couple of the years. He played a total of 39 games in the big leagues the last four years.

He'sa lifetime .235 hitter in the big leauges in 875 at-bats. He can play any of the three outfield positions