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mbgrayson
12-13-2008, 04:25 PM
From MLBTradeRumors.com (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/):

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 13 at 12:59pm CST]
Reds GM Walk Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon that he's interested in three players who became free agents after being non-tendered by their former clubs: Willy Taveras, Ty Wigginton and Aaron Miles.

Jocketty said Taveras could play in center field, Wigginton's a backup in case they don't get their first choice of outfielders and Miles could work if the Reds don't re-sign Jerry Hairston.

Wigginton played in the outfield 30 times for the Astros this year and that was the most ever for him.

mbgrayson
12-13-2008, 04:31 PM
The original story from mlb.com (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081213&content_id=3716475&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp):


Non-tendered players options for Reds
Jocketty expresses interest in Taveras, Wigginton and Miles
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- The Reds' pool of candidates to fill holes became a little deeper Saturday following the revealing of players who weren't tendered 2009 contracts around the league.
Among those that pique Cincinnati's interest are outfielder Willy Taveras, utility player Ty Wigginton and infielder Aaron Miles. All are now on the free-agent market.

"Miles, if we don't sign [Jerry] Hairston," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said during a break from Redsfest on Saturday afternoon. "Wigginton if we don't find the outfielder we want. Taveras could be the center fielder-type guy."

Taveras, a speedster who led the Majors with 68 stolen bases last season, batted .251 with a .308 on-base percentage for the Rockies in 2008. The Reds were rumored to have interest in trading for him last month.

Wigginton, who was eligible for arbitration this winter if he remained with the Astros, can play both corner infield spots and left field. He batted .285 with 23 home runs, 58 RBIs and a .350 on-base percentage.

"Wiggington was a bit of a surprise," Jocketty said of his being non-tendered. "I thought [the Astros] might, but I wasn't sure they would."

Miles primarily plays second base, shortstop and third base, but he has some outfield experience. He also played for Jocketty in St. Louis. Last season with the Cardinals, Miles batted .317 with four homers and 31 RBIs.

Another right-handed-hitting outfielder on the market is Jonny Gomes, who was non-tendered by the Rays. Gomes hit a career-high 21 homers in 2005 and was once a promising star for Tampa Bay. He fell back last season and batted .182 with eight homers and 21 RBIs in 77 games.

Mark Sheldon is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs

dougdirt
12-13-2008, 04:33 PM
I was about 5 feet from Jocketty when he was on the radio with Dayton's 980 AM and he said Taveras was someone they were interested in as a leadoff hitter. I almost threw up in my mouth.

RANDY IN INDY
12-13-2008, 04:37 PM
Let's hope that doesn't happen.:explode:

RedLegSuperStar
12-13-2008, 04:38 PM
This list makes me sick...

You have got to substatue Wiggington with Gomes. Tavares should be an option only if Dickerson, Hopper, and Stubbs can't play for an extended period of time. I'd rather go Joey Gathright for a platoon CFer. Danny Cabrera has to be at least on your plate and Charlie Haeger would be a good option for Louisvilles rotation and a possible pen candidate. Heck no mention of Clay Hansley who was on the Reds radar a year ago. I hope Walt has a change of heart...

Krusty
12-13-2008, 04:54 PM
I'll pass out the stomach bags. Better take the Malox now because I can see Taveras patroling centerfield at the Great American Ballpark next season.

Wiggington? If Uncle Walt is able to reel him in, I'll give him two thumbs up.

WMR
12-13-2008, 04:57 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/group.php?groupid=1

Will M
12-13-2008, 05:00 PM
Wigginton would be a nice pickup. good power. can play 1B-2B-3B-LF.
A look at his defensive stats indicate he is an above average defensive third baseman. he shouldn't be a backup plan.

heck. sign him to play 3B and either move EE to LF or trade him for a SS.

lollipopcurve
12-13-2008, 05:04 PM
I like all 3 of these guys (ducking tomatoes).

Will M
12-13-2008, 05:05 PM
"John Fay heard from Jocketty that a Wigginton deal could move Edwin Encarnacion to left field"

add a 25 home run bat and improve the defense. no cost in players or draft picks. likely at a decent price.
do it ASAP!

HokieRed
12-13-2008, 05:07 PM
They're just interested, guys, while the whole FA and trade market is fluid. WJ has to have backup plans in case the primary ones don't work. Nothing to get excited about yet.

Krusty
12-13-2008, 05:10 PM
As I said before, Uncle Walt doesn't trade Freel unless he sees a centerfielder to take his place. Why trade for Taveras if he has a hunch that the Rockies were going to non-tender him?

redsmetz
12-13-2008, 05:10 PM
They're just interested, guys, while the whole FA and trade market is fluid. WJ has to have backup plans in case the primary ones don't work. Nothing to get excited about yet.

That's important to remember. "Fluid" is an appropriate word and we should be looking at every option. I will say this, conceding a point against WK, but Jockety certainly talks more than Krivsky did. It may be, as they say in the old country, blarney, but it gives the fans some red meat and certainly raises blood pressures around RZ land!

Highlifeman21
12-13-2008, 05:11 PM
"John Fay heard from Jocketty that a Wigginton deal could move Edwin Encarnacion to left field"

add a 25 home run bat and improve the defense. no cost in players or draft picks. likely at a decent price.
do it ASAP!

Is Wigginton better defensively than EE @ 3B?

dougdirt
12-13-2008, 05:19 PM
Is Wigginton better defensively than EE @ 3B?

By a long shot.

alexad
12-13-2008, 05:24 PM
I am not sure why everyone is down on Taveras???He stole over 60 bases last year. That should put some RBI's on the plate for Bruce and Edwin. Plus it could help Phillips if he is placed into the number 2 hole.

HokieRed
12-13-2008, 05:25 PM
What is the knock on Wigginton anyway? His numbers really aren't bad. Why's he had such a difficult time sticking anywhere?

dougdirt
12-13-2008, 05:27 PM
I am not sure why everyone is down on Taveras???He stole over 60 bases last year. That should put some RBI's on the plate for Bruce and Edwin. Plus it could help Phillips if he is placed into the number 2 hole.

Because of the times he won't get on base because his on base percentage sucks.

puca
12-13-2008, 05:28 PM
I am not sure why everyone is down on Taveras???He stole over 60 bases last year. That should put some RBI's on the plate for Bruce and Edwin. Plus it could help Phillips if he is placed into the number 2 hole.

Maybe because he doesn't get on base.

Anyone that makes outs 70% of the time is not really making RBI opportunities. He is making outs.

Tom Servo
12-13-2008, 05:29 PM
What is the knock on Wigginton anyway? His numbers really aren't bad. Why's he had such a difficult time sticking anywhere?
I don't think there's a particular knock on him. The Mets just didn't give him enough time and the Pirates are the Pirates. Once he got to the Rays he really upped his game and the Astros just didn't have the money to resign him.

lollipopcurve
12-13-2008, 05:37 PM
Anyone that makes outs 70% of the time is not really making RBI opportunities. He is making outs.

2008 was a down year for him. His OBP was .367 the year before. He's not a good OBP guy, but he's better than he was last year.

puca
12-13-2008, 05:45 PM
.

2008 was a down year for him. His OBP was .367 the year before. He's not a good OBP guy, but he's better than he was last year.

And not as good as in 2007.

His OBP for his career is around .330, however I worry that his dip last year was a result of pitchers understanding that he cannot hurt you with the bat.

puca
12-13-2008, 05:49 PM
What is the knock on Wigginton anyway? His numbers really aren't bad. Why's he had such a difficult time sticking anywhere?

He is a tweener. Not a good enough hitter for the positions he can play. Last year was his best year by far with the bat.

I don't think he is a very good plan A at either 3b or LF, but I would have no problems with him as a backup or bringing him in as competition for EE.

I never thought Ty was very good defensively at 3b, but EE sets the bar awfully low.

pahster
12-13-2008, 05:56 PM
.

2008 was a down year for him. His OBP was .367 the year before. He's not a good OBP guy, but he's better than he was last year.

He's not a good OBP guy nor is he a good SLG guy. So what purpose does he serve other than pinch runner and late game defensive replacement?

Krusty
12-13-2008, 06:00 PM
The latest from Fay's blog:

The Reds have varying degrees of interest in three players who were non-tendered:


--They are most interested in Willy Taveras. In fact, Walt Jocketty called Taveras agent Saturday morning. “I was the first call. He’s not going to sign on the first,” Jocketty said. “I think it’s going to take some time. I let him know there’s interest. We think he could fill that center field/leadoff role.” Taveras, non-tendered by Colorado, is only 26. He hit .251 with an .308 on-base percentage last year. He led the majors with 68 steals in the 75 attempts. He was much better at the plate in 2007, hitting .320 with a .367 on-base. He lacks power (career slugging of .337).


--They are also interested in the Ty Wigginton, non-tendered by Houston. But, unlike the case of Taveras, there’s no opening at Wigginton’s natural position. “It kind of complicates things,” Jocketty said. “It involves possibly moving Edwin to left. We’ve got to talk about. We didn’t expect him to be non-tendered.” Wigginton, 31, hit .285/.350/.526 overall. His numbers against left-handers were off the charts: .340/.424/.631.


--They are also interested in the Aaron Miles, but only if Jerry Hairston Jr. doesn’t re-sign. “I’ve had Aaron before,” Jocketty said. Miles was non-tendered by St. Louis. Miles, 31, hit .317/.355/.382 last year. He played second, third, shortstop and all three outfield positions. He even pitched a scoreless inning.

RedsManRick
12-13-2008, 06:03 PM
I am not sure why everyone is down on Taveras???He stole over 60 bases last year. That should put some RBI's on the plate for Bruce and Edwin. Plus it could help Phillips if he is placed into the number 2 hole.

This is a common, but fundamental misunderstanding of how runs are created and the value of the events which lead to runs being scored.

If a runner is on base at al, he has created an RBI situation for the guy batting behind him. The focus on 2B as "scoring position" is simply overly simplistic and outdated. Given that a guy is on base, he's more like to score from 3B than 2B and more likely to score from 2B than he is from 1B. But they are all run scoring opportunities. What is not a run scoring opportunity is heading back to the dugout. And the difference between going to 1B and going to the dugout is huge compared to the difference between 1B and 2B.

Tavares simply doesn't reach base often enough. Even though he can put himself on second base often when he does reach, the run value added by being on 2B instead of 1B is vastly outweighed by the cost of being in the dugout instead of on 1B. His game produces less runs and fewer "RBI opportunities" than a guy with much less speed who gets on base at a .350 clip.

Frankly, Phillips has the same problem. Speed is a great bonus at the top of the lineup, helping you take advantage of run scoring opportunities, but it's not a substitute for being on base in the first place. If Tavares is in a lineup, the only place he belongs is 8th, where making an out doesn't hurt you as much and the guys behind you are less likely to drive you in from first base (so stealing 2B is more valuable).

Perhaps the best way to illustrate this is with a run expectancies. Basically, you look back and see how many runs teams tend to score in a given base/out situation.

So first Tavares. Let's simulate 100 1st innings, 100 AB, and say he reaches on a single 30 times. Half the time he's on base, he steals, and he's successful 85% of the time (13/15) -- this is comparable to his actual attempt and success rate. That leaves the following base/out situations. In parenthesis is the average run value for that situation.

0 outs, 2B (1.189): 13
0 outs, 1B (.953): 15
1 out, none on (.297): 72

We would expect the team to score a total of 51.1 runs, or .511 runs per inning.

Now we compare the .350 no speed guy.

0 outs, 1B (.953): 35
1 out, none on: (.297): 65

We would expect the team to score 52.6 runs, or .526 runs per inning.

Now, obviously real baseball is more complicated. There are extra base hits (well, unless you're Willy Tavares), there's the matter of speed helping you advance on hits better, etc. But bottom line, when you look at it, Tavares' speed simply doesn't make up for his failures getting on base and for his inability to hit for any semblance of power.

Speed is exciting to watch and is a great supplement to other offensive skills. However, it's not sufficient to stand on it's own -- and it is all Taveras has got. In a Dave-Roberts-In-Boston sort of role where he is used tactically to play great defense and steal a bag late in a tie game, he could be semi-useful. But we all know we have a manager with a fetish for guys like him and who doesn't have the managerial acumen to know how to utilize his extremely narrow skill set properly.

Krusty
12-13-2008, 06:06 PM
This is a common, but fundamental misunderstanding of how runs are created and the value of the events which lead to runs being scored.

If a runner is on base, he has created an RBI situation for the guy batting behind him. Given that he's on base, 3B is better than 2B which is better than 1B. But they are all run scoring opportunities. What is not a run scoring opportunity is making an out.

Tavares simply doesn't reach base often enough. Even though he can put himself on second base often when he does reach, the run value added by being on 2B instead of 1B is vastly outweighed by the cost of being in the dugout instead of on 1B. His game produces less runs and fewer "RBI opportunities" than a guy with much less speed who gets on base at a .350 clip.

Frankly, Phillips has the same problem. Speed is a great bonus at the top of the lineup, helping you take advantage of run scoring opportunities, but it's not a substitute for being on base in the first place. If Tavares is in a lineup, the only place he belongs is 8th, where making an out doesn't hurt you as much and the guys behind you are less likely to drive you in from first base (so stealing 2B is more valuable).

Perhaps the best way to illustrate this is with a run expectancies. Basically, you look back and see how many runs teams tend to score in a given base/out situation.

So first Tavares. Let's simulate 100 1st innings, 100 AB, and say he reaches on a single 30 times. Half the time he's on base, he steals, and he's successful 85% of the time (13/15) -- this is comparable to his actual attempt and success rate. That leaves the following base/out situations. In parenthesis is the average run value for that situation.

0 outs, 2B (1.189): 13
0 outs, 1B (.953): 15
1 out, none on (.297): 72

We would expect the team to score a total of 51.1 runs, or .511 runs per inning.

Now we compare the .350 no speed guy.

0 outs, 1B (.593): 35
1 out, none on: (.297): 65

We would expect the team to score 52.6 runs, or .526 runs per inning.

Now, obviously real baseball is more complicated. There are extra base hits (well, unless you're Willy Tavares), there's the matter of speed helping you advance on hits better, etc. But bottom line, when you look at, Tavares' speed simply doesn't make up for his failures getting on base and hitting for any semblance of power.

Speed is exciting to watch and is a great supplement to other offensive skills. However, it's not sufficient to stand on it's own -- and it is all Taveras has got.

Too bad he doesn't have Adam Dunn's ablility to take a walk.

Rounding Third
12-13-2008, 06:06 PM
I am reading "The Book," by Tom Tango and others and it covers a lot of what RedsManRick just went into.

Basically he can't steal 1st.

BoydsOfSummer
12-13-2008, 06:09 PM
If Willy promises to hit .320 again, I'm all for it! :thumbup:

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 06:33 PM
“It involves possibly moving Edwin to left."

This excites me. It makes no sense to keep EE at 3B and watch the Ty Wigginton adventure in LF when you could play Wigginton at 3B and let EE spend the whole offseason preparing for a shift to the OF. I wouldn't mind that alignment at all, actually. Wigginton would be the stopgap we have been looking for until Alonso is ready. Here's his recent numbers:


Year Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS SB% BB K BA OBP SLG TB SH IBB HBP GDP OPS
2004 NYN NL 86 339 312 46 89 23 2 12 42 6 1 85.7% 23 48 .285 .334 .487 152 1 4 1 11 .821
2004 PIT NL 58 206 182 17 40 7 0 5 24 1 0 100.0% 22 34 .220 .306 .341 62 0 2 1 4 .646
2005 PIT NL 57 171 155 20 40 9 1 7 25 0 1 0.0% 14 30 .258 .324 .465 72 1 0 1 3 .788
2006 TB AL 122 486 444 55 122 25 1 24 79 4 3 57.1% 32 97 .275 .330 .498 221 1 3 6 11 .828
2007 TB AL 98 417 378 47 104 21 0 16 49 1 4 20.0% 28 73 .275 .329 .458 173 0 0 5 8 .786
2007 HOU NL 50 187 169 24 48 12 0 6 18 2 0 100.0% 13 40 .284 .342 .462 78 0 0 3 8 .804
2008 HOU NL 111 429 386 50 110 22 1 23 58 4 6 40.0% 32 69 .285 .350 .526 203 0 1 8 9 .876

Raisor
12-13-2008, 06:40 PM
Too bad he doesn't have Adam Dunn's ablility to take a walk.

..and if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a wagon.

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 06:45 PM
Aaron Miles brings absolutely nothing to a baseball team. He really doesn't have any discernible skill. I'd rather play a young guy like Rosales or Richar...

RedsManRick
12-13-2008, 06:49 PM
I agree, BC. Wiggington is a RH bat likely to produce a decent chunk of offense quite cheaply. He would improve us defensively at 3B and I don't think it would take EE long to be at least comparable to Dunn in LF. Perhaps most importantly, it would buy us time to see where Alonso, Frazier, Stubbs, and Dickerson are at and if/when they can be significant contributors.

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 06:53 PM
I agree, BC. Wiggington is a RH bat likely to produce a decent chunk of offense quite cheaply. He would improve us defensively at 3B and I don't think it would take EE long to be at least comparable to Dunn in LF. Perhaps most importantly, it would buy us time to see where Alonso, Frazier, Stubbs, and Dickerson are at and if/when they can be significant contributors.

He's the perfect stopgap, and probably cheap too...

Rounding Third
12-13-2008, 06:57 PM
For what its worth comparing Edwin's and Wiggington's defense at third base

Wigs
UZR/150
Career: -14.8
2008: -3.2
2007: -12.8
2006: -31.2 (32 games played)

Edwin
UZR/150
Career: -11.5
2008: -11.6
2007: -15.5
2006: -13.4

Wigs
Fielding Bible
2008: -4 (23rd Best)
2007: -11 (29)

Edwin
Fielding Bible
2008: -21 (35)
2007: -15 (30)

So it looks like we are trading a terrible fielding 3B to a below average 3B

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 07:00 PM
^^2006 really skews anything you try to do with Wigginton's career UZR/150. I think looking at the last two seasons gives a pretty clear indication that Wigginton is a few runs better than EE at 3B...

Caveat Emperor
12-13-2008, 07:04 PM
FWIW -- and I don't for a second think it's worth much -- Walt Jocketty added a similarly OBP-challenged speedster to his St. Louis lineup in 2004 and got a career-year out of him.

Can he repeat his Tony Womack magic with Wily Taveras?

Raisor
12-13-2008, 07:05 PM
FWIW -- and I don't for a second think it's worth much -- Walt Jocketty added a similarly OBP-challenged speedster to his St. Louis lineup in 2004 and got a career-year out of him.

Can he repeat his Tony Womack magic with Wily Taveras?


You've named HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED!!!

Prepare for your doom.

http://www.gamerevolution.com/images/misc/galactus.jpg

Kc61
12-13-2008, 07:06 PM
I would be a little disappointed with Wigginton at third and EE in left. Still doesn't provide the major bat the Reds are missing. I'd rather see them get Jermaine Dye or even Pat Burrell.

On the other hand, I wouldn't be upset with Willie Taveras in center as a table setter. He had a terrible year in 2008, that's why he was non-tendered and why he is available. But his lifetime OPS is .331, which isn't awful, he provides defense and speed, and is a pesky player -- as we've seen when he's on the opposition to the Reds. He has no power but hopefully that could come from other sources.

Every addition to the team can't be an all-star caliber player. So I could live with Taveras.

Caveat Emperor
12-13-2008, 07:08 PM
But his lifetime OBP is .331, which isn't awful, he provides defense and speed, and is a pesky player -- as we've seen when he's on the opposition to the Reds. He has no power but hopefully that could come from other sources.

The two stats that go into producing OPS -- the quick-and-dirty way to assess the offensive value of a baseball player -- are OBP and SLG. Here's what we have for Wily Taveras:

OBP: "Isn't awful"
SLG: Has none.

Call me crazy here, but...

Rounding Third
12-13-2008, 07:11 PM
^^2006 really skews anything you try to do with Wigginton's career UZR/150. I think looking at the last two seasons gives a pretty clear indication that Wigginton is a few runs better than EE at 3B...

Yeah, its kinda hard for Wiggington because he actually only has 1 year where he was a full time 3B and that was 2003 when his UZR was -17.9, but that was awhile ago.

I actually like looking at Wig to play 3B and moving Edwin to LF. Marcel and Bill James both project eerily similar numbers for 2009.

Marcel
.273 / .333 / .473 / .807
James
.269 / .335 / .465 / .800

I think he does provide just below average defense at 3B, which would be a huge jump from one of the leagues worst defenders at 3B. Someone in the Dye - Bailey thread said that he actually posted better OPS+ the past 2 years than Dye.

Raisor
12-13-2008, 07:11 PM
The two stats that go into producing OPS -- the quick-and-dirty way to assess the offensive value of a baseball player -- are OBP and SLG. Here's what we have for Wily Taveras:

OBP: "Isn't awful"
SLG: Has none.

Call me crazy here, but...


I don't know if I'd be taking the time to post at RZ when Galactus was getting ready to eat me.

You never should have mentioned HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED.

Better be looking for a friendly alternate universe.

Mario-Rijo
12-13-2008, 07:11 PM
Aaron Miles brings absolutely nothing to a baseball team. He really doesn't have any discernible skill. I'd rather play a young guy like Rosales or Richar...

I know I am knit-picking here but his skill is what keeps him around baseball. Now talent on the other hand is what he lacks quite a bit of. But yes I don't really care much for the guy, he's Keppinger-Lite.

Kc61
12-13-2008, 07:13 PM
The two stats that go into producing OPS -- the quick-and-dirty way to assess the offensive value of a baseball player -- are OBP and SLG. Here's what we have for Wily Taveras:

OBP: "Isn't awful"
SLG: Has none.

Call me crazy here, but...

Would never call you that.

But I don't think slugging is a fair way to measure a guy with Taveras' skill set. He's a great bunter, he steals bases, he plays great defense. He's a lead off hitter whose big downside is that he doesn't walk enough to have a .350 OBP.

The guy has played centerfield on winning teams and, if you look at his numbers without 2008, he's been pretty successful.

Would I rather have Carlos Beltran in center? Sure.

Would I rather have Jerry Hairston platooning with Dickerson in center? Probably yes, because I'd guess that Hairston can hit similarly to last year.

But Taveras adds other dimensions and I could live with him, if other positive moves are made.

Raisor
12-13-2008, 07:16 PM
Would never call you that.

But I don't think slugging is a fair way to measure a guy with Taveras' skill set. He's a great bunter, he steals bases, he plays great defense. He's a lead off hitter whose big downside is that he doesn't walk enough to have a .350 OBP.

The guy has played centerfield on winning teams and, if you look at his numbers without 2008, he's been pretty successful.

Would I rather have Carlos Beltran in center? Sure.

Would I rather have Jerry Hairston platooning with Dickerson in center? Probably yes, because I'd guess that Hairston can hit similarly to last year.

But Taveras adds other dimensions and I could live with him, if other positive moves are made.


I'd much rather just stick Dickerson out there then pay Tavaras to stink up the joint.

Kc61
12-13-2008, 07:22 PM
Walt's comments are interesting because it doesn't seem like he views Hairston as a platoon centerfielder. He seems to view him as a "Ryan Freel jack of all trades" type. So, apparently, if Hairston doesn't sign Aaron Miles might be acquired.

Seems to me, reading the comments, that Walt also considers centerfield an open position. This bolsters my reading of tea leaves -- that the Reds aren't that sold on Dickerson as a starting outfielder and that he may be a bench player for them this year. Dusty's comments about Dickerson being injured a lot is further proof of this, along with the Reds' decision not to give Dickerson much centerfield time last year.

Mario-Rijo
12-13-2008, 07:37 PM
Sign Wigginton to play 3B for no more than 6 mill 1yr (maybe a team option)
Trade Homer, Francisco & Watson to the Rockies for Garrett Atkins plus 2 Mill
Trade EE to the Angels for Izturis and Willits
Trade Gonzo + 2 mill (from Atkins deal) to the Twins for AAA OF Jason Pridie

Willits CF
Izturis SS
Bruce RF
Atkins LF
Votto 1B
Wigginton 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C

Good solid defense, good solid offense, OBP and speed at the top, power in the middle, power with a little speed at the bottom. No completely deficient offensive player and only one below average defender in LF (and maybe Hernandez also). But what's better is getting rid of Gonzo & contract allows for us to add both Wigginton and Atkins deal for less than what it would cost for Dye alone. Also really solid bench. And we don't have to add Wily Taveras!

Dickerson OF
Keppinger IF
Rosales UT
Pridie/Dorn OF
Hanigan C

TRF
12-13-2008, 07:43 PM
Would never call you that.

But I don't think slugging is a fair way to measure a guy with Taveras' skill set. He's a great bunter, he steals bases, he plays great defense. He's a lead off hitter whose big downside is that he doesn't walk enough to have a .350 OBP.

The guy has played centerfield on winning teams and, if you look at his numbers without 2008, he's been pretty successful.

Would I rather have Carlos Beltran in center? Sure.

Would I rather have Jerry Hairston platooning with Dickerson in center? Probably yes, because I'd guess that Hairston can hit similarly to last year.

But Taveras adds other dimensions and I could live with him, if other positive moves are made.

You just described Norris Hopper. How many Hopper's/Hairston's does one team need?

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 08:06 PM
I would be a little disappointed with Wigginton at third and EE in left. Still doesn't provide the major bat the Reds are missing. I'd rather see them get Jermaine Dye or even Pat Burrell.

Just curious why? Wigginton has been a better hitter than Dye each of the last two seasons and is younger...

corkedbat
12-13-2008, 08:13 PM
Why didn't the Redzoners at Redsfest hustle Jocketty to the nearest Men's Room and hold an Intervention?

If it does come to pass (and it's beginning to look like fate) my hope is they wil use him in a strict platoon with Dickerson going agaisnt every right-handed starter and then hope we don't face many lefties.

Bringing in Taveras late in games for defense with Dickerson shifting to left would be OK, but if it does go down pray they limit his exposure and Stubbs can force his way on the roster by the trade deadline.

I like Wiggington as a bat off the bench.

cincrazy
12-13-2008, 08:22 PM
Sign Wigginton to play 3B for no more than 6 mill 1yr (maybe a team option)
Trade Homer, Francisco & Watson to the Rockies for Garrett Atkins plus 2 Mill
Trade EE to the Angels for Izturis and Willits
Trade Gonzo + 2 mill (from Atkins deal) to the Twins for AAA OF Jason Pridie

Willits CF
Izturis SS
Bruce RF
Atkins LF
Votto 1B
Wigginton 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C

Good solid defense, good solid offense, OBP and speed at the top, power in the middle, power with a little speed at the bottom. No completely deficient offensive player and only one below average defender in LF (and maybe Hernandez also). But what's better is getting rid of Gonzo & contract allows for us to add both Wigginton and Atkins deal for less than what it would cost for Dye alone. Also really solid bench. And we don't have to add Wily Taveras!

Dickerson OF
Keppinger IF
Rosales UT
Pridie/Dorn OF
Hanigan C

I like this. A lot.

puca
12-13-2008, 08:30 PM
Sign Wigginton to play 3B for no more than 6 mill 1yr (maybe a team option)
Trade Homer, Francisco & Watson to the Rockies for Garrett Atkins plus 2 Mill
Trade EE to the Angels for Izturis and Willits
Trade Gonzo + 2 mill (from Atkins deal) to the Twins for AAA OF Jason Pridie

Willits CF
Izturis SS
Bruce RF
Atkins LF
Votto 1B
Wigginton 3B
Phillips 2B
Hernandez C

Good solid defense, good solid offense, OBP and speed at the top, power in the middle, power with a little speed at the bottom. No completely deficient offensive player and only one below average defender in LF (and maybe Hernandez also). But what's better is getting rid of Gonzo & contract allows for us to add both Wigginton and Atkins deal for less than what it would cost for Dye alone. Also really solid bench. And we don't have to add Wily Taveras!

Dickerson OF
Keppinger IF
Rosales UT
Pridie/Dorn OF
Hanigan C

I don't think either the Rockies or Angels pull the tirgger on those deals, but that is a much better team than the current one.

Mario-Rijo
12-13-2008, 09:26 PM
I don't think either the Rockies or Angels pull the tirgger on those deals, but that is a much better team than the current one.

The more I think about it the more the Rockies deal makes a little less since but I think that's a fine starting point and I think we can get a deal done without sending much more. The same with the Angels except I believe that the Angels would be heavily tempted to do that deal and frankly they are getting the better deal, especially if you can convince them that EE's def. problems can be fixed but a change of scenery might be necc, for that to occur. Which if you think about it is a perfectly reasonable argument. Willits and Izturis are solid but unspectacular players but are perfect fits to our current and short term puzzle IMO. The only reason I am even considering dealing EE is because he is still fairly cheap, young and thus marketable. I am just gambling that he ends up a slightly below average offensive 1st bagger or LF, which as we all know we have plenty of. However I am perfectly fine with dealing Wigginton to L.A. but I suspect he would make too much for that to be feasible for them. I would also be happy with Roenicke + a lower level player for Izturis and playing Dickerson in CF.

The Twins deal is the one that I probably should have re-thought, I think the Twins would do that deal or something comparitive if Gonzo were healthy, but I think if we think it's a stretch so would they. Gonzo just so happens to be the only remaining thorn in our side, maybe he can be swayed to retire which might help us with the dollars from (I assume) any insurance they should have on him. If so the Twins deal isn't necc. anyway.

So let me see if I can re-organize this.

Sign Wigginton
Re-Sign Hairston
See about Gonzo's retirement (due to injury of course)
Trade Roenicke & Jo. Castro to LAA for Izturis

Dickerson - CF
Izturis - SS
Bruce - RF
EE - LF (or Wigginton here whatever)
Votto - 1B
Wigginton - 3B
Phillips - 2B
Hernandez - C

Hairston - CF/SS/UT
Kepp - IF
Rosales - UT
Dorn - OF
Hanigan - C

Maybe (maybe) not quite as good offensively but we don't have to give up as much and the defensive is pretty much the same. Plus we actually still have plenty of cash on hand for a mid-season pickup, say maybe Holliday if the A's fall out of it.

Raisor
12-13-2008, 09:49 PM
I hadn't looked at Wily's L/R split, but figured I might be missing something, and maybe I could live with him being a platoon partner or something.

Well, scratch that idea.
Willy, RHB

vsLHP .662 OPS
vsRHP .670 OPS

Rounding Third
12-13-2008, 09:52 PM
I don't know if Wiggington and his career .330 OBP is exactly what we need for a "big right handed bat," but I am in favor of signing him and shifting EE to LF rather than trading away Homer + another prospect and paying 11.5MM to Dye to get the same production from an older and more expensive player.

jojo
12-13-2008, 09:52 PM
I hadn't looked at Wily's L/R split, but figured I might be missing something, and maybe I could live with him being a platoon partner or something.

Well, scratch that idea.
Willy, RHB

vsLHP .662 OPS
vsRHP .670 OPS

Awesome no platoon split! He can neutralize the opposing team's bullpen.

Mario-Rijo
12-13-2008, 09:57 PM
I hadn't looked at Wily's L/R split, but figured I might be missing something, and maybe I could live with him being a platoon partner or something.

Well, scratch that idea.
Willy, RHB

vsLHP .662 OPS
vsRHP .670 OPS

Well at least he's an equal opportunity offender!

Raisor
12-13-2008, 09:58 PM
Awesome no platoon split! He can neutralize the opposing team's bullpen.

Forget leadoff, Wily for cleanup!

corkedbat
12-13-2008, 10:31 PM
I don't want him anywhere near the roster, but if it's gonna be I want the damage minimized. The only reason I mentioned a platoon is if its a strict LH v.s RH platoon it would most likely limit his at-bats.

If Taveras could post a .370 OBP and steal 70 bases @ a 90% clip, I wouldn't care what he slugged in the least. But that's a different discussion and he can't do it anyway. Let's just hope WJ is able to just say no and any discussion is moot.

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 10:42 PM
Forget leadoff, Wily for cleanup!

Split the lefties! Now LOOGY's can't be used to neutralize three batters in a row!

corkedbat
12-13-2008, 10:57 PM
Split the lefties! Now LOOGY's can't be used to neutralize three batters in a row!

I'm praying now that they sign Hairston intending to use him as the right side of the platoon and they forget all about Taveras (the lesser of two evils).

Kc61
12-13-2008, 11:44 PM
You just described Norris Hopper. How many Hopper's/Hairston's does one team need?


No I didn't. Hopper isn't a great centerfielder. Hopper isn't a big base stealer. Hopper isn't anything like Taveras.

Nor, for that matter, is Hairston.

Kc61
12-13-2008, 11:50 PM
Just curious why? Wigginton has been a better hitter than Dye each of the last two seasons and is younger...


Please explain how Wigginton was better than Dye last year. Dye was a full time player with 590 at bats. Wig had 386 at bats. Dye beat Wigginton in virtually every offensive category, including OPS.

Just curious how you reached the conclusion that Wigginton was better last year.

dougdirt
12-13-2008, 11:54 PM
Please explain how Wigginton was better than Dye last year. Dye was a full time player with 590 at bats. Wig had 386 at bats. Dye beat Wigginton in virtually every offensive category, including OPS.

Just curious how you reached the conclusion that Wigginton was better last year.

Dye played more games and piled up more counting stats, but Wigginton posted a better OPS+ than Jermaine Dye did and defensively he was better as well compared to his positional peers.

*BaseClogger*
12-13-2008, 11:57 PM
Please explain how Wigginton was better than Dye last year. Dye was a full time player with 590 at bats. Wig had 386 at bats. Dye beat Wigginton in virtually every offensive category, including OPS.

Just curious how you reached the conclusion that Wigginton was better last year.

Dye played in an offensive paradise. And how does Wigginton control his paying time again? :rolleyes:

fearofpopvol1
12-13-2008, 11:59 PM
I would definitely be in favor of signing Wiggington. If nothing else, he could be a supersub. I'm sure he'll come relatively cheap.

flyer85
12-14-2008, 12:00 AM
I am not sure why everyone is down on Taveras???He stole over 60 bases last year. That should put some RBI's on the plate for Bruce and Edwin. that 308 OBP while playing half his games in Coors sure won't help.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 12:08 AM
Dye played more games and piled up more counting stats, but Wigginton posted a better OPS+ than Jermaine Dye did and defensively he was better as well compared to his positional peers.


Well in terms of regular OPS, Dye was better. In terms of OPS plus, lifetime Dye's is better.

But the biggest difference is that Dye is a full time player who, in the last five years, has had over 500 at bats and performed well, sometimes great.

Wigginton has only had 500 at bats twice in his career. He has never performed like Dye over a full season, with the emphasis on the word full.

This past year, Dye was remarkably consistent, about equal performance from both sides of the plate. Wigginton had a much wider split between hitting against lefties and righties.

IMO, Dye is the superior threat for the Reds to have in the lineup.

And for the comment that Wigginton can't control his playing time -- maybe, but usually top notch players get to play the full season like Dye invariably does.

If Wigginton is so good, the Reds should pick him up to play third. They should then trade for Dye to play left.

EE can be traded for somebody else. Maybe a shortstop or centerfielder.

Rounding Third
12-14-2008, 12:27 AM
Signing Wigg and moving to EE to LF sounds fine.

But do you really want to trade Homer + Prospect (or whoever is being traded) plus $11.5MM for a 1 year 35 year old stopgap and get rid of Edwin for a difference of 9 points in OPS+?

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 12:33 AM
Well in terms of regular OPS, Dye was better.
Which doesn't give us a good picture at all given how different parks can play.



In terms of OPS plus, lifetime Dye's is better.
True, but doesn't begin to tell us next years production.



But the biggest difference is that Dye is a full time player who, in the last five years, has had over 500 at bats and performed well, sometimes great.

Wigginton has only had 500 at bats twice in his career. He has never performed like Dye over a full season, with the emphasis on the word full.

Which begs the question of whether he is being misused by his managers or if there have been injury problems year after year.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 12:40 AM
Signing Wigg and moving to EE to LF sounds fine.

But do you really want to trade Homer + Prospect (or whoever is being traded) plus $11.5MM for a 1 year 35 year old stopgap and get rid of Edwin for a difference of 9 points in OPS+?


The middle of the Reds order has Votto and Bruce. It needs a major righty hitter. Without it, no pitcher will worry about this lineup.

Wigginton at third and EE in left isn't what the Reds need. Both good, solid, sixth place hitters. So is Phillips. Fine, but not what is needed.

Dye is the closest guy on the market to the cleanup bat the Reds need. He plays the full season, hits both lefties and righties, and last year OPS'd near .900. He is the right guy to fit their offensive needs for the next year or two.

Fans can come up with all the inexpensive, creative, nice ways to get a guy like Wigginton who will slightly upgrade third base defense and provide another pretty good bat. Will fill a position but not materially upgrade the team.

What is needed, though, is a hitter that will solidify the middle of this order so it packs some wallop. Dye is the right man of those reportedly on the market.

Rounding Third
12-14-2008, 12:43 AM
Is Dye the guy to solidify the middle of the order because he is a bigger name? Wigg had a higher OPS+ last year than Dye, so if you want to use that measure than Wigg was the better hitter. He cost no players, less money, is younger and upgrades the defense.

I still would like to try to get Hermida, but if my choice is between Dye and Wigg I would take Wigg in a heartbeat.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 12:46 AM
Which doesn't give us a good picture at all given how different parks can play.


True, but doesn't begin to tell us next years production.



Which begs the question of whether he is being misused by his managers or if there have been injury problems year after year.

So the suggestion is that Wigginton's performance is because of bad managers, difficult ballparks, and that next year he will leap over Dye with superior performance. Ok.

But if I'm a GM, looking for a one or two-year answer in left field, I would respectfully ignore all these "what if" type projections and go with the proven full season hitter, Dye, who fits the Reds' offensive needs like a glove.

11larkin11
12-14-2008, 12:48 AM
We have two spots open on the 40 man, and we don't have to worry about the Rule V anymore. I'm thinking that is open for a LF/Wiggington and Hairston/Miles.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 12:49 AM
Is Dye the guy to solidify the middle of the order because he is a bigger name? Wigg had a higher OPS+ last year than Dye, so if you want to use that measure than Wigg was the better hitter. He cost no players, less money, is younger and upgrades the defense.

I still would like to try to get Hermida, but if my choice is between Dye and Wigg I would take Wigg in a heartbeat.

Look at the stats for both over their careers. Then make the comparison.

My response to your question about the "bigger name" is whether some fans have an attraction for the cheaper, smaller name player. Around the Reds, it seems like a crime to want a big name, proven player.

And by the way -- how does Wigg upgrade the defense? He's perhaps a slightly better third baseman than EE, but the result is that EE plays out of position in the outfield -- where he has no experience. Overall, maybe not.

toledodan
12-14-2008, 12:49 AM
I am not sure why everyone is down on Taveras???He stole over 60 bases last year. That should put some RBI's on the plate for Bruce and Edwin. Plus it could help Phillips if he is placed into the number 2 hole.



corey patterson says hi!:D

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 12:56 AM
So the suggestion is that Wigginton's performance is because of bad managers, difficult ballparks, and that next year he will leap over Dye with superior performance. Ok.

But if I'm a GM, looking for a one or two-year answer in left field, I would respectfully ignore all these "what if" type projections and go with the proven full season hitter, Dye, who fits the Reds' offensive needs like a glove.

Wigginton doesn't have to leap over Dye with superior performance, he just needs to do exactly what he did last year over 200 more at bats, because when you adjust for the parks the two guys play in, he posted a strong OBP and SLG than did Jermaine Dye did. The only projection there is playing time/health.

Then there is also Dye who is a very good hitter himself, has the longer track record (although he hasn't been better rate wise than Wigginton over the last two seasons, just has more PT) and has shown he can do it over a full season. Of course his defense also fits the Reds needs like a taco shell glove (not that Wigginton is a great defender at all).

Still, the original question was why Wigginton was better offensively than Dye and his OPS+ has been better each of the last two seasons.

Rounding Third
12-14-2008, 12:58 AM
Look at the stats for both over their careers. Then make the comparison.

My response to your question about the "bigger name" is whether some fans have an attraction for the cheaper, smaller name player. Around the Reds, it seems like a crime to want a big name, proven player.

And by the way -- how does Wigg upgrade the defense? He's perhaps a slightly better third baseman than EE, but the result is that EE plays out of position in the outfield -- where he has no experience. Overall, maybe not.

Dye Career OPS+ 112
Wigg Career OPS+ 105

Dye is also 3 years older than Wigg is.

Yes Wigg provides an upgrade. Edwin is rated as one of the worst defensive 3B in the league. Wigg would be slightly below average. Yeah it still doesn't sound like much, but moving from terrible to slightly below average would be a big jump.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 01:05 AM
Dye Career OPS+ 112
Wigg Career OPS+ 105

Dye is also 3 years older than Wigg is.

Yes Wigg provides an upgrade. Edwin is rated as one of the worst defensive 3B in the league. Wigg would be slightly below average. Yeah it still doesn't sound like much, but moving from terrible to slightly below average would be a big jump.


I'm well aware of EE's fielding problems, but if the objective is to upgrade third, the Reds should upgrade to an average or better defender. Not another below average defender.

The result of this Wigginton/EE gambit is that you have a "slightly below average" third baseman and a novice in left field whose probably never played there before.

I guess I'm just not willing to let the Reds off the hook on this one. They let Dunn walk and should replace him in left with a major, proven, full time player. Or get Beltre and move EE to left. I'm very ok with that.

Let them spend a few bucks and get somebody.

AmarilloRed
12-14-2008, 01:51 AM
Taveras' OBP is largely BA-driven, as he does not get many walks. His 2007 OBP of .367 was largely because he had a BA of .320. I think if Taveras could manage to hit .300 every year, he would have a decent OBP, but he can't. Go for the CF with a good OBP, Chris Dickerson.

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 03:00 AM
Stay away from Taveras. He's awful.

Wigginton wouldn't be a bad pickup.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 09:27 AM
Stay away from Taveras. He's awful.

Wigginton wouldn't be a bad pickup.

Plus, we could call Wigginton "Big Wiggy", which automaticly becaomes the Reds' best nickname on the currentl team.

jojo
12-14-2008, 10:02 AM
Taveras is a below average bat and he could easily be a minus defender in '09 as well.

pahster
12-14-2008, 11:03 AM
Taveras is a below average bat and he could easily be a minus defender in '09 as well.

Two negatives make a positive, right?

jesusfan
12-14-2008, 11:15 AM
Two negatives make a positive, right?

That's only if you multiply them, not adding them... ;)

mbgrayson
12-14-2008, 11:40 AM
corey patterson says hi!:D

While it is tempting to think of Taveras as "Corey Patterson version 2", there are some differences.

Looking through my 2009 Bill James Handbook, I see that Taveras has the best overall baserunning rating of all MLB players in 2008. James uses SBs, caught stealing, taking extra bases, and more as the basis for this 'bases taken' rating. He rates Taveras as +70, and Patterson as +5. (FWIW, Ryan Freel rates as -7).

In fielding, Patterson has a 2.75 range factor, and Taveras is 2.61.

In hitting, Taveras and Patterson both had down years in 2008. Their lines look like this:

Patterson: .205/.238/.344 for an OPS of .582.
Taveras: .251/.308/.296 for an OPS of .604.

So even though a .604 OPS is very low, it is 22 points higher than Corey Patterson put up in 2008.

In 479 ABs in 2008, Taveras did walk 36 times, for a 7% walk rate. Patterson only walked 16 times in 366 ABs, for a 4.2% rate.

Taveras created 49 runs in 2008, while Patterson only created 23 runs. (According to Bill James 'Runs Created' statistic). For comparison purposes, Josh Hamilton created 119 runs in 2008....and Chris Dickerson created 22 runs in only 102 ABs....

Taveras will be only 27 years old in 2009, and Patterson will turn 30 in August.

All in all, I would take Taveras over Patterson, because I think there is more value and more upside there. But I would also really look hard at Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs in spring training. The only good thing about having had Corey Patterson be so bad last year is that it seems that we have nowhere to go but up....

Rounding Third
12-14-2008, 12:03 PM
It is not that difficult to top Corey Patterson's 2008 season. Just because he is better than Patterson last year doesn't mean he should be give a spot.

Highlifeman21
12-14-2008, 12:19 PM
He's the perfect stopgap, and probably cheap too...

Stopgap for who?

jojo
12-14-2008, 12:22 PM
Wigginton doesn't have to leap over Dye with superior performance, he just needs to do exactly what he did last year over 200 more at bats, because when you adjust for the parks the two guys play in, he posted a strong OBP and SLG than did Jermaine Dye did. The only projection there is playing time/health.

I think there is more than just a health projection as last season was a career performance by Wigginton which was propelled by basically 12 HRs in August (10 in Minute Maid). In fact he had a gaudy HR/FB% of 24% at home in 2008.

Here's what Marcels projects: Ty, wOBA=.347; Dye, wOBA=.359; Neither Wiggins (3b) nor Dye (RF) are good defenders at their native positions Wigginton's better showing in '08 notwithstanding (unless the argument is that Wigginton became a different player when he turned 30). Moving them to left is unlikely to mean any major tangible boost in defensive value for either guy though maybe Wigginton has something like a 5 run advantage on Dye in that regard.


Still, the original question was why Wigginton was better offensively than Dye and his OPS+ has been better each of the last two seasons.

Wigginton and Dye have been somewhat comparable hitters over the last two seasons but Ty has been propped up a bit in a way that adjusting for environment really isn't going to capture perfectly.

At this point Dye is still a better hitter but the difference isn't staggering. To me an important question is will either player gives the Reds enough push to make the playoffs a serious possibility? I personally don't think so. Maybe the Reds could pick Wigginton up reasonably and platoon him against lefties in the hopes of squeezing a positional advantage like they did at firstbase with Aurilia/Hatteberg.

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 12:23 PM
Stopgap for who?

Alonso or Frazier.

Highlifeman21
12-14-2008, 12:24 PM
You just described Norris Hopper. How many Hopper's/Hairston's does one team need?

Maybe 1 Hairston, at most, but no team needs a Hopper.

Scratch that... All the other teams in MLB need to be FULL of Hairstons and Hoppers. The Reds however, need only a maximum of 1 Hairston, and absolutely 0 Hopper.

nate
12-14-2008, 12:27 PM
The middle of the Reds order has Votto and Bruce. It needs a major righty hitter. Without it, no pitcher will worry about this lineup.

Actually, without a good hitter, no matter his orientation when he bats, no pitcher will worry about this lineup.

Highlifeman21
12-14-2008, 12:34 PM
Alonso or Frazier.

So Big Wiggy is a 3B placeholder for Frazier, or a LF placeholder for Alonso or Votto (assuming 1 of the other 2 stays @ 1B)?

Does this mean we've ultimately given up on EE, or does he turn into the LF stopgap while Big Wiggy stopgaps @ 3B?



Lastly, does Big Wiggy or EE have a big enough bat to be a COF?

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 12:39 PM
The Reds just need a one year stopgap until one of Alonso/Frazier is ready. What the Reds plan to do a year from now is still up in the air. They'll have plenty of options - Votto could move to left with Alonso taking over at first, or Frazier could move to LF, or EdE to LF with Frazier at 3B. It's a nice problem to have IMO.

nate
12-14-2008, 12:42 PM
In hitting, Taveras and Patterson both had down years in 2008. Their lines look like this:

Patterson: .205/.238/.344 for an OPS of .582.
Taveras: .251/.308/.296 for an OPS of .604.

Ugh, that's worse than I even imagined.

Hopefully, Ltlabner can change his "CP23IS#1" vanity plate!

Raisor
12-14-2008, 12:57 PM
Ugh, that's worse than I even imagined.

Hopefully, Ltlabner can change his "CP23IS#1" vanity plate!

I present the "Reds sign C-Patt" thread.

Time to mock (I'm looking at YOU OBM!)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65883&highlight=reds+sign+patterson

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 01:00 PM
I present the "Reds sign C-Patt" thread.

Time to mock (I'm looking at YOU OBM!)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65883&highlight=reds+sign+patterson

:D

I'm ashamed. I do remember that though. I had hopes that playing half his games in the GABP would allow him to return to the Patterson of 2003-2004 and 2006. Boy was I wrong. Little did I know that our manager was going to continue running him out there everyday while having a historically bad season.

jojo
12-14-2008, 01:02 PM
I present the "Reds sign C-Patt" thread.

Time to mock (I'm looking at YOU OBM!)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65883&highlight=reds+sign+patterson

Here's my take (http://www.redszone.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1669654) for what it's worth:


As a signing, it wasn't a bad decision to sign Corey (even at $3M though given his poor start it does look like a decision that wont work out). Pecota projected him to do this: 271/.313/.424 which would have made him exactly an average NL CFer offensively this season (though other systems were less enthusiastic suggesting an OPS from .700 to 740 but these were all assuming he'd play in the AL). I have no idea what the scouts had to say about him so I can't figure that in to the equation. He is a true plus defender, probably on the order of +5 to +10 over the course of a full season. So there was a realistic expectation that he would be at least something equivalent to a league average CFer. At $3M, that's a pretty good value (though I guess it could be argued that his contract was an overpay because the Reds could've probably signed him for less).

I think the initial plan was also to platoon him which obviously might be expected to increase the odds he'd hit the Pecota projection.

Basically Patterson, when his skill set is leveraged properly, could be a useful player even though he'll never hit the ceiling he was once thought to have.

Then Dusty got hold of him. Then Corey started off poorly at the plate. Dusty's inappropriate use of Corey coupled with his poor start really is a perfect storm of suppression on the Reds run differential.

Neither really should count as knocks against Krivsky though IMHO.

Jpup
12-14-2008, 01:07 PM
I posted in that thread too. I was calling for Wayne's head which eventually happened and I was totally against when it did. :D

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1563584&postcount=115

Benihana thought I was over reacting.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1563668&postcount=139

vaticanplum
12-14-2008, 01:38 PM
"Miles, if we don't sign [Jerry] Hairston," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said during a break from Redsfest on Saturday afternoon. "Wigginton if we don't find the outfielder we want. Taveras could be the center fielder-type guy."

What exactly is a "center fielder-type guy"? Is that kind of like Eric Milton being a pitcher-type guy?

Here's a thought: if Jocketty has decided that he wants to fill the centerfield spot, why doesn't he do it with, I dunno, an actual center fielder?

For the record, I think Taveras is one of the worse-type ideas the Reds have bandied about this offseason. The other two I could be sold on if they were used well, I think.

kbrake
12-14-2008, 03:41 PM
I think Taveras could serve a purpose as the last guy on a bench but with Dusty in the dugout I have zero confidence thats how he would be used. The last thing this team needs is to see Taveras in center every day and leading off.

edabbs44
12-14-2008, 03:45 PM
I posted in that thread too. I was calling for Wayne's head which eventually happened and I was totally against when it did. :D

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1563584&postcount=115

Benihana thought I was over reacting.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1563668&postcount=139


Bob C. will find out really fast that this team isn't contending. That's when the ax will fall and Walt will be taking the wheel.

That's my prediction.

redsmetz
12-14-2008, 03:49 PM
I think Taveras could serve a purpose as the last guy on a bench but with Dusty in the dugout I have zero confidence thats how he would be used. The last thing this team needs is to see Taveras in center every day and leading off.

If the Reds sign Taveras, Dusty playing him will be following Walt's wishes. How does that fall on Baker? That's all we ever hear on RZ anymore. Jockety stated very clearly that they're looking at Taveras to fill that role. I know it's knee jerk around here to diss Dusty, but what's he supposed to do when your GM signs someone to play CF and lead off?

I did like WJ broaching the idea of moving Eddie to LF is they sign Wigginton. He's voicing ideas that are more creative than we've seen previously.

kbrake
12-14-2008, 04:29 PM
If the Reds sign Taveras, Dusty playing him will be following Walt's wishes. How does that fall on Baker? That's all we ever hear on RZ anymore. Jockety stated very clearly that they're looking at Taveras to fill that role. I know it's knee jerk around here to diss Dusty, but what's he supposed to do when your GM signs someone to play CF and lead off?

I did like WJ broaching the idea of moving Eddie to LF is they sign Wigginton. He's voicing ideas that are more creative than we've seen previously.

You're right, I'm sorry. With everything Walt has said if he makes this move it will hang on him. Thank you for correcting me.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 04:34 PM
If the Reds sign Taveras, Dusty playing him will be following Walt's wishes. How does that fall on Baker? That's all we ever hear on RZ anymore. Jockety stated very clearly that they're looking at Taveras to fill that role. I know it's knee jerk around here to diss Dusty, but what's he supposed to do when your GM signs someone to play CF and lead off?

I did like WJ broaching the idea of moving Eddie to LF is they sign Wigginton. He's voicing ideas that are more creative than we've seen previously.

Walt is going after what Dusty "needs". That's the type of GM Walt is IMO he finds out what his manager wants and goes off to get it. In other words he doesn't decide what they need he just takes the order and fills it. Which is an awful poor route to take when Dusty is your manager.

RedsManRick
12-14-2008, 04:43 PM
Walt is going after what Dusty "needs". That's the type of GM Walt is IMO he finds out what his manager wants and goes off to get it. In other words he doesn't decide what they need he just takes the order and fills it. Which is an awful poor route to take when Dusty is your manager.

I'm going to pretend that Walt is stupid like a fox, giving Dusty the tools of his own demise, so Walt can bring in somebody better in 2010.

HokieRed
12-14-2008, 04:47 PM
I'm not sure I see how any of WJ's acquisitions reflect taking Dusty's order and filling it. So far it seems to me we've seen Walt going about executing a strategy, keeping lots of possibilities in order, and doing some good. IMHO, he strengthened the bullpen through the whole set of moves he made there. I'd rather not have paid Weathers what he's likely to get in arbitration, but I have to see the bullpen's likely to be better with Weathers than without him. He got Lincoln on a reasonable contract and Rhodes on one. Moves he made at the end of the year, including promotion of Ramirez, now give us at least three options for the #7 spot there even if none of the young guns force other changes during the spring (Masset, Owings, Ramirez). The whole exchange of Freel and salary for Hernandez helps unload a bad contract and get a league average player at a key position, one whom some of our young pitchers should find helpful to them too. He's explored finding an outfield bat, first coming close to the Dye deal (where other players may have been involved in a way that meant we would not have had the whole burden of Dye's salary), then backing away and starting to talk to the FA's. Now he's expressing interest in guys we may need to turn to if other things don't work out. He has seemed to me, all along, to have his own agenda and to be pursuing it. If we end up with Taveras, I suspect it will be because other things did not develop as he hoped. If we can get a power bat for left field (or a 3b with EE going there) and we sign Hairston, I don't think we'll see Taveras in red.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 04:49 PM
I'm going to pretend that Walt is stupid like a fox, giving Dusty the tools of his own demise, so Walt can bring in somebody better in 2010.

I'm simply hoping we get a manager next year that can do 2 jobs. Figure out what he needs and is able to get Walt to find the most ideal fit possible. But I'm done pretending that if Walt gets him Taveras and especially if he signs him to more than a 1 year deal.

jojo
12-14-2008, 04:58 PM
I don't think Jocketty has done anything patently dumb. We're just seeing him do what most GMs without a ton of resources do-peck at the periphery.

The Hernandez trade for example didn't net a great catcher but it can be justified.

Maybe he'll do something big but it doesn't look like he'll have the payroll and the farm is lacking some pizazz. I'm not a huge Jocketty fan (i'd like the Reds FO to be more avant garde) but Jocketty isn't likely to do more harm than good IMHO.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 05:03 PM
I'm not sure I see how any of WJ's acquisitions reflect taking Dusty's order and filling it. So far it seems to me we've seen Walt going about executing a strategy, keeping lots of possibilities in order, and doing some good. IMHO, he strengthened the bullpen through the whole set of moves he made there. I'd rather not have paid Weathers what he's likely to get in arbitration, but I have to see the bullpen's likely to be better with Weathers than without him. He got Lincoln on a reasonable contract and Rhodes on one. Moves he made at the end of the year, including promotion of Ramirez, now give us at least three options for the #7 spot there even if none of the young guns force other changes during the spring (Masset, Owings, Ramirez). The whole exchange of Freel and salary for Hernandez helps unload a bad contract and get a league average player at a key position, one whom some of our young pitchers should find helpful to them too. He's explored finding an outfield bat, first coming close to the Dye deal (where other players may have been involved in a way that meant we would not have had the whole burden of Dye's salary), then backing away and starting to talk to the FA's. Now he's expressing interest in guys we may need to turn to if other things don't work out. He has seemed to me, all along, to have his own agenda and to be pursuing it. If we end up with Taveras, I suspect it will be because other things did not develop as he hoped. If we can get a power bat for left field (or a 3b with EE going there) and we sign Hairston, I don't think we'll see Taveras in red.

Dusty is the guy putting the puzzle together, Walt is just the guy finding him the pieces. All you argued is that Walt is good at finding and then acquiring the required pieces. But out of respect for the puzzlemaker (regardless of who that is) Walt keeps his mind on acquiring and his hands off the pieces otherwise.

Problem is Walt is use to a master puzzle constructer who consistently puts together advanced puzzles. Right now he is finding moderate pieces for a moderate puzzle for a maker who once in a while finishes a moderate level puzzle.

jojo
12-14-2008, 05:11 PM
I don't believe that Jocketty's role is to simply be Dusty's enabler.

RedsManRick
12-14-2008, 05:15 PM
Dusty is the guy putting the puzzle together, Walt is just the guy finding him the pieces. All you argued is that Walt is good at finding and then acquiring the required pieces. But out of respect for the puzzlemaker (regardless of who that is) Walt keeps his mind on acquiring and his hands off the pieces otherwise.

Problem is Walt is use to a master puzzle constructer who consistently puts together advanced puzzles. Right now he is finding moderate pieces for a moderate puzzle for a maker who once in a while finishes a moderate level puzzle.

I think you have the arrow backwards. The goal is to win, not to make your manager happy. If Walt can't see that Dusty's plan for success is rife with problems, and chooses to implement it anyways, it's his fault. The buck of the composition of the 25 man roster stops on Walt's desk. It's Walt's job to make sure that Dusty has the pieces he needs to build a complete puzzle.

If Walt gives Dusty a full set of pieces and Dusty screws it up, that's on Dusty. But if Walt decides to indulge Dusty by giving him too many funny looking middle pieces and not enough corners and borders, that's on Walt.

wheels
12-14-2008, 05:18 PM
I'm going to pretend that Walt is stupid like a fox, giving Dusty the tools of his own demise, so Walt can bring in somebody better in 2010.

That would be awesome.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 05:19 PM
I don't believe that Jocketty's role is to simply be Dusty's enabler.

Ok I won't argue he without question is. However if he's not he's incompetent or under the impression that Dusty is gonna do something other than Taveras for as much of 162 games as possible. That is if we settle for Taveras, especially now or anytime before mid-late January.

Otherwise explain why a smart GM would sign Taveras to be their regular starting CF/leadoff hitter, especially after said GM pointed out Taveras major deficiency which is supposed to be his strength. When their might still be options ava.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 05:22 PM
I think you have the arrow backwards. The goal is to win, not to make your manager happy. If Walt can't see that Dusty's plan for success is rife with problems, and chooses to implement it anyways, it's his fault. The buck of the composition of the 25 man roster stops on Walt's desk. It's Walt's job to make sure that Dusty has the pieces he needs to build a complete puzzle.

If Walt gives him a full set of pieces and Dusty screws it up, that's on Dusty. But if Walt decides to indulge Dusty by giving him too many funny looking middle pieces and not enough corners and borders, that's on Walt.

So then why do I have it backwards if Walt knows better but does it anyway? I know what the goal is, it's Walt's arrow I'm questioning. Walt's not pretending he knows what it takes to cook he is just good at getting the groceries the cook needs.

HokieRed
12-14-2008, 05:26 PM
First thing WJ did in the postseason was to make it clear that Bako and CP would not be back. That doesn't seem like simply doing what Dusty would want.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 05:29 PM
First thing WJ did in the postseason was to make it clear that Bako and CP would not be back. That doesn't seem like simply doing what Dusty would want.

Even Castellini knew those guys had to go so I don't read much into that, it was a no brainer for everyone involved.

HokieRed
12-14-2008, 05:31 PM
I wish not adding them had been a no brainer for WK last year.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 05:38 PM
I wish not adding them had been a no brainer for WK last year.

Yet no one thinks the manager has anything to do with the players he receives?

jojo
12-14-2008, 05:51 PM
Yet no one thinks the manager has anything to do with the players he receives?

I'm sure Dusty has some input but he's certainly not Jocketty's puppet master.

RedlegJake
12-14-2008, 06:15 PM
I'll chip in my opine about Taveras. If they get him he needs to OBP over .350 to be helpful. Slugging is the real ticket, OBP is a close second and Willie has no power so he starts out as only half a hitter. Now, if he leads off and gets on at a .367 clip like 2007, he's still valuable because leading off the game at least 25% of his ABs his slugging is less important than just getting on base (but the leadoff spot only helps there his first time up and only in subsequent innings leading off when I would argue that simply getting on base is as important as slugging). So - leading off, getting a solid OBP, and with his speed (and excellent SB%) he becomes a small black check on the asset side. If he OBP's at his career avg or under, then he's simply not worth the dollars and the loss of playing time for Dickerson. Then you have the fact that whenever Hanigan is in the lineup 1/3 of the hitters would be virtually powerless (Taveras, Hanigan and pitcher) giving pitchers a juicy 8-9-1 where they could forget fear and just fire it up there knowing they can't get hurt too bad. Add that Taveras is an average CFer at best, certainly not the equal of Dickerson and I wonder why the Reds fascination with Willie?
Amazes me how one decent season can have GMs wearing pinpoint glasses that only focus on that one good year.

Wigginton, now, I'd jump all over that if he's at all affordable. He's nearly the equal of Dye, imo, (but not quite as good) but importantly can be had for less dollars and without a price in talent. To me, that makes him a lot better.

Miles is another Kepp, skilled player, decent spray hitter, but no real talent that could elevate his skills. He's maxxed himself and I respect guys that do that but I'm realistic, too. Hairston has solid skills and a ton more upside even if that upside is only likely to show up in momentary spurts at this point.

Cyclone792
12-14-2008, 06:45 PM
I could tolerate Wigginton, but he likely isn't a big enough bat. The Reds really need to find a .900 OPS for the lineup, and without that they likely won't score enough runs to matter next season. The team can't roll into 2009 praying that Bruce and Votto tear the NL up; they need to prepare for Bruce and Votto to have slight development increases and then consider anything extra a nice bonus.

Taveras is a joke. If he's hitting leadoff, the offense will be finished before the season even starts.

Aaron Miles shouldn't be anywhere near a big league roster.

Caveat Emperor
12-14-2008, 07:40 PM
Alonso or Frazier.

Aren't we all getting ahead of ourselves with Frazier? He had a nice time in Dayton as a 22 year-old, and then was just decent to slightly-above-average after his promotion to high-A (~.800 OPS).

He needs to do something at AA before you start thinking about acquiring players with the idea to 'hold a spot' for him.

membengal
12-14-2008, 08:16 PM
I fully expect him to surge at AA, Caveat. Sarasota really surpresses hitting. An .800 OPS there is a decent number for him.

Ltlabner
12-14-2008, 08:34 PM
--They are most interested in Willy Taveras..."I let him know there’s interest. We think he could fill that center field/leadoff role.”

Was a law passed that declares the center fielder leads off? Now The Jock seems to be touting that the center-fielder "naturally" has to be the leadoff guy. :confused:


Hopefully, Ltlabner can change his "CP23IS#1" vanity plate!

Already have my request for WTAVROX in with the BMV.

By the way, were you able to get any money on Ebay for your Corey Patterson pajamas ?



I present the "Reds sign C-Patt" thread.

Time to mock (I'm looking at YOU OBM!)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65883&highlight=reds+sign+patterson

Yay...Memories!


Taveras is a joke. If he's hitting leadoff, the offense will be finished before the season even starts.

Well.....here's to 2010

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 08:45 PM
Aren't we all getting ahead of ourselves with Frazier? He had a nice time in Dayton as a 22 year-old, and then was just decent to slightly-above-average after his promotion to high-A (~.800 OPS).

He needs to do something at AA before you start thinking about acquiring players with the idea to 'hold a spot' for him.

An .808 OPS in the FSL isn't just decent or slightly above average, it's very good. The FSL is a very pitcher friendly league. His .808 OPS in the FSL was good for 9th in the league; Three of the guys ahead of him were too old for the league. After the season, Frazier went to the Hawaii Winter League and hit .295/.375/.547 - .922 OPS. Like the FSL, the HWL is an extreme pitchers league. Frazier is a legit prospect IMO.

Hoosier Red
12-14-2008, 08:48 PM
I could tolerate Wigginton, but he likely isn't a big enough bat. The Reds really need to find a .900 OPS for the lineup, and without that they likely won't score enough runs to matter next season. The team can't roll into 2009 praying that Bruce and Votto tear the NL up; they need to prepare for Bruce and Votto to have slight development increases and then consider anything extra a nice bonus.

Taveras is a joke. If he's hitting leadoff, the offense will be finished before the season even starts.

Aaron Miles shouldn't be anywhere near a big league roster.

Does it change anything if Taveras OBP's at .370 as opposed to .310?
I mean what's an average OBP for a leadoff guy anyway?

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 08:55 PM
Does it change anything if Taveras OBP's at .370 as opposed to .310?
I mean what's an average OBP for a leadoff guy anyway?

It makes a big difference and the average OBP is likely .370ish, but the point is that Taveras is a whole lot more likely to be around .320 than he is .370 again because of how his game works.

OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 09:00 PM
The average OBP by NL lead off hitters in 2008 was .342. For the American League it was .347. I like for my lead off hitters to be around .350 or higher.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=onBasePct&split=109&group=9&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 09:02 PM
The average OBP by NL lead off hitters in 2008 was .342. For the American League it was .347.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=onBasePct&split=109&group=9&season=2008&seasonType=2&statType=batting&type=reg

Ew. Seriously, Oakland had a .218/.285/.327 line from its leadoff hitters last year.

Cyclone792
12-14-2008, 09:03 PM
Does it change anything if Taveras OBP's at .370 as opposed to .310?
I mean what's an average OBP for a leadoff guy anyway?

For Taveras to get on base at a .370 clip, he'd have to hit .325 given his BB and HBP rates. How confident are you that Taveras would hit .325?

FYI, the average leadoff OBP is .345. You obviously want above average, though, so you really need a leadoff OBP to be north of .350.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 09:05 PM
For Taveras to get on base at a .370 clip, he'd have to hit .325 given his BB and HBP rates. How confident are you that Taveras would hit .325?

FYI, the average leadoff OBP is .345. You obviously want above average, though, so you really need a leadoff OBP to be north of .350.

Especially when the Reds aren't carrying very many high OBP guys.

It's got to come from some where.

Ltlabner
12-14-2008, 09:06 PM
For Taveras to get on base at a .370 clip, he'd have to hit .325 given his BB and HBP rates.

So you're saying there's a chance......?

edabbs44
12-14-2008, 09:06 PM
It makes a big difference and the average OBP is likely .370ish, but the point is that Taveras is a whole lot more likely to be around .320 than he is .370 again because of how his game works.

Over 650 PAs, that difference is 32.5 times on base over the course of the season. Which would equate to just over 5 times per month, or slightly over once per week.

Just some color for the discussion...

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 09:10 PM
Over 650 PAs, that difference is 32.5 times on base over the course of the season. Which would equate to just over 5 times per month, or slightly over once per week.

Just some color for the discussion...

Yeah, its a small number per week, but over the season 33 times on base adds up a whole lot. Thats at the very least 33 extra at bats your team is going to get, but more likely to be 50+.

edabbs44
12-14-2008, 09:14 PM
Yeah, its a small number per week, but over the season 33 times on base adds up a whole lot. Thats at the very least 33 extra at bats your team is going to get, but more likely to be 50+.

Now how does, say, a +60 SB differential affect his impact? Obviously it will make his OBP a more valuable one that someone with less success on the bases.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 09:19 PM
Now how does, say, a +60 SB differential affect his impact? Obviously it will make his OBP a more valuable one that someone with less success on the bases.

which is where Runs Created comes into things, since it takes SB into account.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 09:21 PM
Now how does, say, a +60 SB differential affect his impact? Obviously it will make his OBP a more valuable one that someone with less success on the bases.

It does help for some of his TERRIBLE slugging as a leadoff hitter, because there aren't going to be a ton of guys on base for him where the XBH counts as much. But it is also going to hurt his OBP because while he is very successful, he still gets caught from time to time, taking away 'times on base'.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 09:23 PM
There were 33 guys that hit in the 1 slot 200+ times in 2008, Wily was 30th in RC/27.

Ltlabner
12-14-2008, 09:24 PM
Now how does, say, a +60 SB differential affect his impact? Obviously it will make his OBP a more valuable one that someone with less success on the bases.

Obviously stealing bases helps to some degree, but you still have to get on base first.

I'd rather have the higher OBP guy who has glacier like speed than the speedy guy who dashes back to the dugout more regularly. Especially from a leadoff guy who's getting more PA's over the course of a year.

Not to mention, running into an out at second doesn't really make up for those other times you never made it to first.

Hoosier Red
12-14-2008, 09:30 PM
Well, for right now, I'll settle for non-out eating bacteria. In his 5 seasons he's a .333 OBP career hitter. He's also heading toward his "peak" years, or do those only matter for Reds prospects?

Also just curious, though we poo poo the 67 SB, if he were to add 67 bases to his SLG, and added 9 outs to his OBP. His OPS would be 701. Certainly not the worst player on the field.

edabbs44
12-14-2008, 09:30 PM
Obviously stealing bases helps to some degree, but you still have to get on base first.

I'd rather have the higher OBP guy who has glacier like speed than the speedy guy who dashes back to the dugout (but does so speedily) more regularly. Especially from a leadoff guy who's getting more PA's over the course of a year.

Not to mention, running into an out at second doesn't really make up for those other times you never made it to first.

I don't think you read my posts in their entirety.

1) Taveras "horrendous" OBP only keeps him off the bases about 32 times less than someone with a great OBP of .370 over the course of a season.

2) Taveras had a +61 SB differential last season. In other words, he didn't run into too many outs.

TRF
12-14-2008, 09:33 PM
I present the "Reds sign C-Patt" thread.

Time to mock (I'm looking at YOU OBM!)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=65883&highlight=reds+sign+patterson


Wow was I brutal on this signing.

Completely in the right, but brutal.

Ltlabner
12-14-2008, 09:37 PM
I don't think you read my posts in their entirety.

1) Taveras "horrendous" OBP only keeps him off the bases about 32 times less than someone with a great OBP of .370 over the course of a season.

2) Taveras had a +61 SB differential last season. In other words, he didn't run into too many outs.

No, actually I did read your posts.

My response was in general/philosophical terms. In general I'd rather have a higher OBP guy than a guy who creates outs more outs but can steal a base.

You note, having read my post, that I included no specific players name.

nate
12-14-2008, 09:38 PM
Already have my request for WTAVROX in with the BMV.

By the way, were you able to get any money on Ebay for your Corey Patterson pajamas ?

No, I wore the booties out.

edabbs44
12-14-2008, 09:40 PM
No, actually I did read your posts.

My response was in general/philosophical terms. In general I'd rather have a higher OBP guy than a guy who creates outs more outs but can steal a base.

You note, having read my post, that I included no specific players name.

You also replied directly to a hypothetical Taveras involving situation, so it was kind of implied in your response that you were talking about the situation at hand.

Highlifeman21
12-14-2008, 09:45 PM
I could tolerate Wigginton, but he likely isn't a big enough bat. The Reds really need to find a .900 OPS for the lineup, and without that they likely won't score enough runs to matter next season. The team can't roll into 2009 praying that Bruce and Votto tear the NL up; they need to prepare for Bruce and Votto to have slight development increases and then consider anything extra a nice bonus.

Taveras is a joke. If he's hitting leadoff, the offense will be finished before the season even starts.

Aaron Miles shouldn't be anywhere near a big league roster.

Didn't the Reds trade away a .900 OPS last season, for seemingly peanuts?

I wonder if they wish they still had that big, albeit misused, bat in the lineup?

Raisor
12-14-2008, 09:45 PM
. Certainly not the worst player on the field.

He had a 3.75 RC/27 out of the leadoff spot in 08, including the 51 SBs.

That's. Bad.

Juan Pierre had a 3.49.

To put it in context Javier Valentin had an overall RC/27 of 4.80.

And the only thing we'll miss about Javy is the kickin stache.

TRF
12-14-2008, 09:47 PM
I fully expect him to surge at AA, Caveat. Sarasota really surpresses hitting. An .800 OPS there is a decent number for him.

That doesn't work for everyone. Ask Drew Stubbs.

Not saying that's the case with Frazier, but his success isn't a given.

Highlifeman21
12-14-2008, 09:47 PM
There were 33 guys that hit in the 1 slot 200+ times in 2008, Wily was 30th in RC/27.

Where was OBM's boy C-Patt?

red-in-la
12-14-2008, 09:49 PM
Isn't Taveras just Corey Patterson WITHOUT the power? I would just hate to see this team go in that direction again of dying each time their "spark" went 0-5.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 09:56 PM
Where was OBM's boy C-Patt?

2.48

Strong.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 10:10 PM
That doesn't work for everyone. Ask Drew Stubbs.

Not saying that's the case with Frazier, but his success isn't a given.

Oh come on, Drew left Sarasota and went to both AA and AAA with over 175 PA and posted an OPS 40 points higher than he had in Sarasota despite being levels higher against better competition. Add in that Frazier is a better hitter with better power and I don't think its much of a stretch to expect Frazier to post an .875+ OPS in Carolina next season.

membengal
12-14-2008, 10:13 PM
That doesn't work for everyone. Ask Drew Stubbs.

Not saying that's the case with Frazier, but his success isn't a given.

I didn't say success was a given, I said that Sarasota suppresses OPS. It does. Even in Stubbs' case.

But let's not take that minors discussion here...

jojo
12-14-2008, 10:16 PM
Now how does, say, a +60 SB differential affect his impact? Obviously it will make his OBP a more valuable one that someone with less success on the bases.

He can't get on base, hit for average or power. He doesn't even play very good defense. But he would be a good pinch runner.

TRF
12-14-2008, 10:24 PM
Oh come on, Drew left Sarasota and went to both AA and AAA with over 175 PA and posted an OPS 40 points higher than he had in Sarasota despite being levels higher against better competition. Add in that Frazier is a better hitter with better power and I don't think its much of a stretch to expect Frazier to post an .875+ OPS in Carolina next season.

Did he surge as a hitter at AA. that's all i am saying. the simple answer is no.

.406 SLG at Sarasota
.402 SLG at Chattanooga.

It is not a given that any player will leave Sarasota and see a surge in his hitting. Stubbs was an example only. Same thing happened to Valaika.

I find it a silly notion that moving up a level, facing tougher pitching allows for a surge in hitting just because the FSL has a rep as a pitcher's league.

paintmered
12-14-2008, 10:25 PM
Let's get this back on topic please.

TRF
12-14-2008, 10:28 PM
Let's get this back on topic please.

It is on topic in regards to saying a place needs to be help for a player that hasn't played a single inning above A+.

If I had said Valaika instead of Stubbs, I doubt there would be anyone leaping to his defense.

edabbs44
12-14-2008, 10:35 PM
He can't get on base, hit for average or power. He doesn't even play very good defense. But he would be a good pinch runner.

Agreed, but most on here were using his OBP as proof of him sucking.

Hoosier Red
12-14-2008, 10:42 PM
He had a 3.75 RC/27 out of the leadoff spot in 08, including the 51 SBs.

That's. Bad.

Juan Pierre had a 3.49.

To put it in context Javier Valentin had an overall RC/27 of 4.80.

And the only thing we'll miss about Javy is the kickin stache.


True, last year was bad, the year before was average at least, unless you can tell me specifically why last year was bad, then I'm banking on it being somewhere in the middle of those two.

I'm not necessarily for the signing, but I have trouble listening to the argument that because last year(the worst of his career to date) was so awful, we shouldn't sign him.

Many people who talk only in terms of his .308 OBP last year would look at a different player coming off their worst year and assume we could "buy low."

Will M
12-14-2008, 11:09 PM
An opinion from MLBTraderumors:

"What will it take to sign Wigginton? Casey Blake's three-year, $17.5MM deal might be optimistic, but Neal figures Wigginton could get a similar average annual salary. Still might take two years to sign Wigginton though. Beyond Joe Crede, there's not much else out there for third base."

I have seen several posts where people hope to sign Wiggington to a one year deal. I don't think this is gonna happen. The guy can play 1B-2B-3B-OF. He is 31 years old. He has averaged 23 homers a year the last 3 years.
The only reason the Astros nontendered him is because they are in a budget crunch & couldn't move guys like Tejada & Lee.
Two years/$12M seems like what he'll get unless a team goes three years.

REDREAD
12-14-2008, 11:13 PM
.

2008 was a down year for him. His OBP was .367 the year before. He's not a good OBP guy, but he's better than he was last year.


I agree. Tavaraz is worth rolling the dice on. Maybe he can rebound.
He wouldn't cost any prospects in a trade, as long as his salary demands are reasonable, why not?

Raisor
12-14-2008, 11:16 PM
True, last year was bad, the year before was average at least, unless you can tell me specifically why last year was bad, then I'm banking on it being somewhere in the middle of those two.

I'm not necessarily for the signing, but I have trouble listening to the argument that because last year(the worst of his career to date) was so awful, we shouldn't sign him.

Many people who talk only in terms of his .308 OBP last year would look at a different player coming off their worst year and assume we could "buy low."

How about if I can show that 08 was just Willy returning to his norm?

Let me use a slightly different number, RC per 100 PA.

05 11.01 (66.06 per 600 pa)
06 11.11 (66.66 per 600 pa)
07 14.09 (84.54 per 600 pa)
08 10.54 (63.24 per 600 PA)

REDREAD
12-14-2008, 11:17 PM
He's not a good OBP guy nor is he a good SLG guy. So what purpose does he serve other than pinch runner and late game defensive replacement?

We need to add 2 more OF to the roster to field a team next year. He could be one. If he earns the starting job on merit, then it's a good sign. If he's a backup, that's a pretty good backup.

He has some upside in OBP.

I really don't understand the OBP blinders. His career OBP is 330. If it was 360 most people would love him, however, that's only getting on base 18 more times over 600 at bats.

Taveraz is a legit CF and his stolen bases have some value. True, he has little power, but he's not a bad option for the Reds considering the dearth of OF talent on the team right now.

Ltlabner
12-14-2008, 11:30 PM
I'm not necessarily for the signing, but I have trouble listening to the argument that because last year(the worst of his career to date) was so awful, we shouldn't sign him.

A bad 2008 isnt the argument against WT.

The argument against WT:
- Totally dependant on batting average for his offensive value. If he gets in a funk he has no 'fall back' weapon like taking walks or big SLG. He's toast.

- Has poor plate discipline. In an environment where being agressive at the plate is preached hes far more likely to be a hacker. The chances for 2008 pt II are greater than 2007.

- The Dusty's insistance that CF leads off, and you need speed at the top of the order virtually guarentees a repeat performance of 250+ horrable leadoff PA's if WT struggles.

- Its not guarenteed that he'll be a stealing machine. People keep touting his 2008 SB numbers while glossing over his more mediocre 2007 numbers. If his SB percentage falls to 75 or lower he'll simply be running into even more outs.

- Not bad defense but not so good that it outweighs his other flaws.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 11:33 PM
We need to add 2 more OF to the roster to field a team next year. He could be one. If he earns the starting job on merit, then it's a good sign. If he's a backup, that's a pretty good backup.

He has some upside in OBP.

I really don't understand the OBP blinders. His career OBP is 330. If it was 360 most people would love him, however, that's only getting on base 18 more times over 600 at bats.

Taveraz is a legit CF and his stolen bases have some value. True, he has little power, but he's not a bad option for the Reds considering the dearth of OF talent on the team right now.


Agree with this post. Also, you can't look at any move in isolation. By the end of this off-season, the Reds will have a number of new players, in different price ranges. Let's look at the whole picture.

As you suggest, the Reds may be viewing Taveras as a platoon partner with Dickerson in centerfield. That's ok with me. They may not see Hairston (if signed) as a legit centerfielder.

Even this Wigginton talk is dependent on other things. One scenario is trade EE in a deal for a left fielder and sign Wigg for third base.

Calm. Let's evaluate in February.

HokieRed
12-14-2008, 11:40 PM
Agree entirely, as I suggested earlier, with the urging we remain calm. I just think WJ continues to explore possibilities. I see nothing for him to gain whatever in saying, for instance, that the club's not at all interested in Taveras. He's got to keep options open for a while yet; we need two outfielders. He wants to let Hairston know there's another alternative. I think if Hairston signs we'll hear no more of Taveras b/c the other guy to sign is going to be sought primarily for being a RH hitter with some pop--Rivera, Burrell, maybe Wigginton with a move of EE etc. I think the process has still got some ways to go.

Kc61
12-14-2008, 11:48 PM
Agree entirely, as I suggested earlier, with the urging we remain calm. I just think WJ continues to explore possibilities. I see nothing for him to gain whatever in saying, for instance, that the club's not at all interested in Taveras. He's got to keep options open for a while yet; we need two outfielders. He wants to let Hairston know there's another alternative. I think if Hairston signs we'll hear no more of Taveras b/c the other guy to sign is going to be sought primarily for being a RH hitter with some pop--Rivera, Burrell, maybe Wigginton with a move of EE etc. I think the process has still got some ways to go.

Reds may need more than two outfielders. Hopper is no sure thing to go north with the team out of spring training.

Also, if Dickerson starts in a platoon, the Reds will need a lefty pinch hitter off the bench, could be that third new outfielder.

Long way to go.

paulrichjr
12-14-2008, 11:49 PM
Did anyone go to the Rockies series in July (I think) at GABP? Taveras absolutely drove the Reds pitchers crazy. Every time he stepped to the plate (2 games) that series it seemed like he found a way to get on base and drive the pitchers nuts. I'm not saying that you shouldn't look at his numbers but sometimes I wonder just what someone like him does to the next two guys in the lineup because the pitcher is so worried about his speed. He was a major pest.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 11:49 PM
By the way, Joe Average NL Centerfielder created about 85 runs per 600 PA's in 2008.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 11:49 PM
While I think we can all agree that the Reds must add some outfielders, what most of us on the anti-Taveras side are saying is that he is WAY down the list of options we should be choosing.

Raisor
12-14-2008, 11:53 PM
While I think we can all agree that the Reds must add some outfielders, what most of us on the anti-Taveras side are saying is that he is WAY down the list of options we should be choosing.

If one wanted to, one could make an argument that C-Patt is more likely to bust out a 70+ RC/600 PA season then Willy in 09.

Patterson has done that twice in the last four years to Willy's 1.

Just sayin

TRF
12-14-2008, 11:55 PM
While I think we can all agree that the Reds must add some outfielders, what most of us on the anti-Taveras side are saying is that he is WAY down the list of options we should be choosing.

my. god.

I'm agreeing with doug. :)

Raisor
12-14-2008, 11:56 PM
my. god.

I'm agreeing with doug. :)

I know. I'm going to start storing food in the basement...just in case. ;)

Kc61
12-14-2008, 11:58 PM
While I think we can all agree that the Reds must add some outfielders, what most of us on the anti-Taveras side are saying is that he is WAY down the list of options we should be choosing.

I read this thread as just another manifestation of the view that OBP is the key stat for a major league player. It's that simple. Taveras' base stealing, defense, bunting -- even his good year in 2007 -- are all overlooked because of his bad OBP in 2008.

I do agree with the poster who said that Taveras drove the Reds crazy in games this year. I saw those games and agree. He also was the starting centerfielder for a World Series team.

And I've seen nobody propose another available alternative for centerfield except for Dickerson -- who is a platoon at most right now -- and Hairston, who by trade is a second baseman and doesn't have the great speed for plus centerfield.

To me, the Reds need to spend for a high level power hitter. If the result is that they add a Taveras to play some centerfield I can live with it.

TRF
12-14-2008, 11:58 PM
I know. I'm going to start storing food in the basement...just in case. ;)

That won't stop Galactus.

Raisor
12-15-2008, 12:02 AM
That won't stop Galactus.

*I* don't have to worry about Galactus.

I have an Ultimate Nullifier stashed away someplace.

He's already showed up once in this thread, I want to be ready.

Raisor
12-15-2008, 12:04 AM
I read this thread as just another manifestation of the view that OBP is the key stat for a major league player. It's that simple. Taveras' base stealing, defense, bunting -- even his good year in 2007 -- are all overlooked because of his bad OBP in 2008.




Actually, I'm more worried about his bad years in 05, 06, AND 08.

TRF
12-15-2008, 12:07 AM
*I* don't have to worry about Galactus.

I have an Ultimate Nullifier stashed away someplace.

He's already showed up once in this thread, I want to be ready.

Dude, you do know the nullifer, um nullifies he who wields it right?

it's a sucky weapon.

Raisor
12-15-2008, 12:09 AM
Dude, you do know the nullifer, um nullifies he who wields it right?

it's a sucky weapon.

Kind of like CPat?

TRF
12-15-2008, 12:14 AM
Kind of like CPat?

winner!

Kc61
12-15-2008, 12:18 AM
Actually, I'm more worried about his bad years in 05, 06, AND 08.

In 2005, Taveras had 172 base hits.

Quiz -- That number is 16 more hits than any player on what 2008 National League baseball team?

pahster
12-15-2008, 12:20 AM
In 2005, Taveras had 172 base hits.

Quiz -- That number is 16 more hits than any player on what 2008 National League baseball team?

Taveras in 2005: .291/.325/.341/OPS+75

Add that line to the Reds and let the winning begin!

dougdirt
12-15-2008, 12:21 AM
I read this thread as just another manifestation of the view that OBP is the key stat for a major league player. It's that simple. Taveras' base stealing, defense, bunting -- even his good year in 2007 -- are all overlooked because of his bad OBP in 2008.
His base stealing adds a little value. His defense isn't special. OBP is important, but isn't the be all end all. The problem is, the other things he brings to the table don't really make much movement on the scale from where his OBP is. His defense, while may be decent, isn't special enough to make a real dent. His slugging is downright terrible.



And I've seen nobody propose another available alternative for centerfield except for Dickerson -- who is a platoon at most right now -- and Hairston, who by trade is a second baseman and doesn't have the great speed for plus centerfield.

While Dickerson may be a platoon type, his numbers against lefties still suggest he is as good against them as Taveras is. And thats the point people are making. If Dickerson is viewed as a 'platoon guy' because over the last 2 years in AAA have been like this in OBP/SLG .356/.348 and .358/.391. Still, Taveras has a career split of .322/.340 against lefties. Now sure, Taveras did that in the majors while Dickerson was just in AAA, but the fact remains even platooning him with Dickerson against lefties, its not likely to be an upgrade worth the money he will be paid. You can find guys on the scrap heap who can give you a .322/.340 against left handed pitching and play some defense for absolute league minimum.

TRF
12-15-2008, 12:22 AM
In 2005, Taveras had 172 base hits.

Quiz -- That number is 16 more hits than any player on what 2008 National League baseball team?

his OPS that year was .666

He made an out about 78% of the time and when he did hit the ball he didn't hit it all that hard.

blech.

Kc61
12-15-2008, 12:24 AM
Taveras in 2005: .291/.325/.341/OPS+75

Add that line to the Reds and let the winning begin!


Add a .291 hitter -- providing 172 hits, league leading base stealing, and solid centerfield defense -- to the Reds for $2 million for one year. Then get Jermaine Dye or a comparable hitter. With the new catcher and, hopefully, better infield defense, yes, the team has improved.

Raisor
12-15-2008, 12:26 AM
his OPS that year was .666

.


Now you've done it.

You've brought out the Church Lady.


http://ac4.yt-thm-a01.yimg.com/image/fcb80c61203f6580

TRF
12-15-2008, 12:26 AM
Add a .291 hitter -- providing 172 hits, league leading base stealing, and solid centerfield defense -- to the Reds for $2 million for one year. Then get Jermaine Dye or a comparable hitter. With the new catcher and, hopefully, better infield defense, yes, the team has improved.

nobody's team with Taveras on it is improved if he is a starter.

Raisor
12-15-2008, 12:29 AM
Add a .291 hitter -- providing 172 hits, league leading base stealing, and solid centerfield defense -- to the Reds for $2 million for one year. Then get Jermaine Dye or a comparable hitter. With the new catcher and, hopefully, better infield defense, yes, the team has improved.

I think it's possible you jumped the shark.

http://sk1.yt-thm-a03.yimg.com/image/998258308480db28

wheels
12-15-2008, 01:10 AM
Raisor's on a roll with the pictures lately.:laugh:

flyer85
12-15-2008, 01:11 AM
Now you've done it.

You've brought out the Church Lady.


http://ac4.yt-thm-a01.yimg.com/image/fcb80c61203f6580

isn't that special?

Jpup
12-15-2008, 01:59 AM
We need to add 2 more OF to the roster to field a team next year. He could be one. If he earns the starting job on merit, then it's a good sign. If he's a backup, that's a pretty good backup.

He has some upside in OBP.

I really don't understand the OBP blinders. His career OBP is 330. If it was 360 most people would love him, however, that's only getting on base 18 more times over 600 at bats.

Taveraz is a legit CF and his stolen bases have some value. True, he has little power, but he's not a bad option for the Reds considering the dearth of OF talent on the team right now.

You said the same thing about Patterson last spring.

SteelSD
12-15-2008, 02:13 AM
I think it's possible you jumped the shark.

http://sk1.yt-thm-a03.yimg.com/image/998258308480db28

Willy Taveras 2005 to 2008 Runs Above Position:

2005: -15.7 RAP
2006: -12.4 RAP
2007: -1.8 RAP
2008: -19.2 RAP

TOTAL: -49.1 RAP

The guy's career year still registered as negative RAP and the only reason it would have been worse had he received his normal 500-odd PA. Gotta' watch out for guys with that kind of ceiling because their floor will kill you.

And what Kc61 isn't telling us is that Willy Taveras had more hits in 2005 than did any player on the Reds' 2005 club. Y'know, the one that lead the NL in Runs Scored? So maybe gross Base Hit totals aren't really the answer. I know that Willy Taveras certainly isn't. Heck, he's not even the right question.

WMR
12-15-2008, 06:36 AM
Especially when the Reds aren't carrying very many high OBP guys.

It's got to come from some where.

As things stand now, the Reds are going to be making outs at an alarming rate next season.

We've got, what... TWO legit OBP guy--EE and Votto--on the starting roster?

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 07:39 AM
I read this thread as just another manifestation of the view that OBP is the key stat for a major league player. It's that simple. Taveras' base stealing, defense, bunting -- even his good year in 2007 -- are all overlooked because of his bad OBP in 2008.

So getting on base isn't the key role of a hitter? What would it be then? Solid warmup swings in the on-deck circle?

Base Stealing: Nice...but if you can't get to first base, who cares? Serriously, who cares? It's pretty hard to steal second from the dugout.

Defense: He plays an ok centerfield, but he's not so spectacular out there that you'd overlook his other flaws.

Bunting: Hopper, Norris

And as Raisor pointed out, his 2007 was nice, but people keep zipping past his decidedly crappy 2005, 2006 and 2008 in the rush to come up with reasons why Taveras isn't so bad.

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 08:34 AM
As things stand now, the Reds are going to be making outs at an alarming rate next season.

We've got, what... TWO legit OBP guy--EE and Votto--on the starting roster?


YEAR NAME OUTR
2008 Corey Patterson 0.7398
2008 Paul Janish 0.7191
2008 Paul Bako 0.68935
2008 Jeff Keppinger 0.68924
2008 Jay Bruce 0.67478
2008 Brandon Phillips 0.66831
2008 Jolbert Cabrera 0.66667
2008 Javier Valentin 0.66667
2008 Ryan Freel 0.65734
2008 Andy Phillips 0.65000
2008 E Encarnacion 0.64605
2008 Ken Griffey Jr. 0.64000
2008 Jerry Hairston 0.62626
2008 David Ross 0.62428
2008 Joey Votto 0.62309
2008 Adam Dunn 0.62069
2008 Ryan Hanigan 0.60204
2008 Chris Dickerson 0.59016

Out rates of the 2008 lineup.

Guys who figure to be on the 2009 team in bold.

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 08:42 AM
YEAR NAME OUTR
2008 Ramon Hernandez 0.68047
2008 Willy Taveras 0.67658
2008 Jermaine Dye 0.64496
2008 Pat Burrell 0.62946

Here's the out rates of a couple other names that keep coming up in trade rumors.

jojo
12-15-2008, 08:44 AM
As a Rockie, Taveras played defense in centerfield like he was auditioning for a corner position.

He can't get on base and he doesn't hit for power (and that assessment is being kind) but he's a force that drives an offense?

Another question, when considering his true skill level, why are we debating the meaning of 172 hits in 2005 (career high) and 61 stolen bases in 2008 (career high) while ignoring any metric (which is about every advanced metric) that suggests he hasn't actually played plus defense in center for quite some time?

Basically Taveras hits like a catcher, plays defense like a right fielder and runs fast.

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 08:58 AM
Basically Taveras hits like a catcher, plays defense like a right fielder and runs fast.

But other than that....

I am also getting a kick out of picking hits from one year, stolen bases from another, high OBP from another and defense from none to make an "evaluation" of this guy.

My guess is that the illusion of a batting average driven hitter who steals bases is just irresistible to some. Maybe even the manager.

membengal
12-15-2008, 09:00 AM
This is such a universally reviled potential move on this board that it almost has to come to pass. Echoes of the CP discussion ahead of his inevitable signing.

It will make a lot of fans grumpy when the opening day line-up has Tavares leading off and Janish batting second, that's for sure...

blumj
12-15-2008, 09:04 AM
It's scary how seductive speed is.

edabbs44
12-15-2008, 09:25 AM
This is such a universally reviled potential move on this board that it almost has to come to pass. Echoes of the CP discussion ahead of his inevitable signing.

It will make a lot of fans grumpy when the opening day line-up has Tavares leading off and Janish batting second, that's for sure...

The problem with the team is that those two could be in the lineup, not that they are hitting wherever they will be hitting.

Everyone loved to point at Dusty's lineups last season as the downfall of the Reds when you could have reshuffled the lineup any way you wished and it wouldn't have made that much of a difference.

The chief reason why I don't want to see Taveras in the lineup is because I don't think I'll be able to take another season of listing to the moaning on Cincy's lineups. Game threads that will be polluted with nonsense about how "teh Dusty" (among other witty remarks) is the downfall of the organization. While all along we ignore the talent under management.

Lineup construction will only really worry me when they have a lineup to worry about. Otherwise, it isn't worth the effort.

membengal
12-15-2008, 09:30 AM
I actually agree, edabbs. I was just positing the worst case scenario for board meltdown which was them batting first and second.

I am def concerned about not even giving Dusty the option. That is on Jocketty. But I am bracing myself for the Tavares era in Cincy, just because it almost seems fated at this point...

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 09:33 AM
Everyone loved to point at Dusty's lineups last season as the downfall of the Reds when you could have reshuffled the lineup any way you wished and it wouldn't have made that much of a difference.

Certainly you'd love to give the manager so much talent he couldn't possibly screw it up. That's the ideal. The reality is The Dusty is going to get a mixed bag of talent(s). I'd rather live in reality.

He's shown that he can't maximize the talent he is given.

That the productive hitters last year spent the majority of their time in the 5 hole and lower in the lineup tells us all we need to know about The Dusty's talent utilization whether we want to hear about it or not.

And yes, batting more productive hitters higher in the lineup would "make a difference". Unless, of corse, you'd rather argue that giving more productive hitters less at bats is a good thing.

edabbs44
12-15-2008, 09:52 AM
And yes, batting more productive hitters higher in the lineup would "make a difference". Unless, of corse, you'd rather argue that giving more productive hitters less at bats is a good thing.

It probably would make a difference (by definition), but it wouldn't be enough to really make this team a winner. Hence why I said "that much of a difference".

So those who live and die by Dusty's lineups can do just that over (at most) a couple of wins. Call me when they are one game out of first in September and I will join the fun.

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 10:05 AM
It probably would make a difference (by definition), but it wouldn't be enough to really make this team a winner. Hence why I said "that much of a difference".

So those who live and die by Dusty's lineups can do just that over (at most) a couple of wins. Call me when they are one game out of first in September and I will join the fun .

There are two forces at play. The Jock acquiring enough talent to "make the team a winner" and The Dusty using the talent he has been given to win as many games as possible.

Obviously we all want The Jock to load the team up with talent. I'd be shocked if someone argued against that plan of attack. And I agree that is where 95% of the efforts should be focused. Thus my disgust with a possible Taveras deal.

But once that roster is locked in the weight is on The Dusty's shoulders to use that talent optimally. It is fair game to gripe about the lineups when it's costing the Reds wins, even if it means going from 82 to 77 wins.

And it's a complete strawman to claim that people "live and die" by The Dusty's lineups. All the evidence you need is found in this and the Jermaine Dye threads. Plenty of people are passionate about finding the right talent for the team. But once the season starts the discussion changes. Whether you follow the topic change is up to you.

BRM
12-15-2008, 10:32 AM
Taveras has been an out machine in 3 of his 4 MLB seasons. His one decent season at the plate happened at Coors Field in limited playing time (under 400 plate appearances). I'll never understand the love affair with this guy. Speed doesn't mean much when it's not on base.

osuceltic
12-15-2008, 10:33 AM
It's scary how seductive speed is.

The old cliche is speed never slumps, and it's true. Along with the stolen bases, speed allows you to go first to third or score from first on a gapper or score from third on a shallow fly ball. And, maybe even more importantly, it takes away a lot of hits from the other guys. It's a lot of stuff that doesn't show up in the scorebook.

I know ... he can't steal first base. Ideally, he'd get on base more. But as others have pointed out, we obsess so much about OBP numbers and when you break it down you're talking about an extra five walks a month or something like that?

Taveras isn't my first choice obviously, but I'm willing to give the guy a chance.

membengal
12-15-2008, 10:37 AM
But the cliche is ridiculously wrong. Speed slumps just like everything else. If you are not on first, you are not useful, as a hitter. And Tavares' numbers warn of not a slump, they warn of a negative value player.

TRF
12-15-2008, 10:38 AM
The old cliche is speed never slumps, and it's true. Along with the stolen bases, speed allows you to go first to third or score from first on a gapper or score from third on a shallow fly ball. And, maybe even more importantly, it takes away a lot of hits from the other guys. It's a lot of stuff that doesn't show up in the scorebook.

I know ... he can't steal first base. Ideally, he'd get on base more. But as others have pointed out, we obsess so much about OBP numbers and when you break it down you're talking about an extra five walks a month or something like that?

Taveras isn't my first choice obviously, but I'm willing to give the guy a chance.

no. it isn't an extra 5 walks. It's the extra outs that's the problem. Is he dangerous on the bases? Hell yes. But he isn't anything close to resembling a major league hitter, and that negates his speed completely. And while speed never slumps, it does wane. And when speed is your only weapon, it's better for the Reds if they look elsewhere.

blumj
12-15-2008, 10:45 AM
The old cliche is speed never slumps, and it's true. Along with the stolen bases, speed allows you to go first to third or score from first on a gapper or score from third on a shallow fly ball. And, maybe even more importantly, it takes away a lot of hits from the other guys. It's a lot of stuff that doesn't show up in the scorebook.

I know ... he can't steal first base. Ideally, he'd get on base more. But as others have pointed out, we obsess so much about OBP numbers and when you break it down you're talking about an extra five walks a month or something like that?

Taveras isn't my first choice obviously, but I'm willing to give the guy a chance.
Seduced.

HokieRed
12-15-2008, 11:07 AM
What the board's opinion on whether the Nix signing means anything for our interest in Taveras? Make it more or less likely? Seems less to me which is about the only reason I'm finding right now to like the Nix pic.

pahster
12-15-2008, 11:09 AM
What the board's opinion on whether the Nix signing means anything for our interest in Taveras? Make it more or less likely? Seems less to me which is about the only reason I'm finding right now to like the Nix pic.

My take is that it makes no difference because Jocketty talked about Taveras filling a starting role (:barf:). If Nix makes the team it'll be as a backup.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:13 AM
Taveras is a below average bat and he could easily be a minus defender in '09 as well.

What makes you think he'd be a minus defender next year?

Signing Taveras makes a lot of sense, considering we only have 3 OF on the roster. (I don't count Nix). Hopefully Walt will sign a LF and Dickerson will win the job from Taveraz, but neither of those is a given. Taveraz at a decent price is a smart pickup. Yes, he's not a star, but he has upside.

Someone said he had a bad OBP in Coors. Well, Coors is not going to help a guy like Taveraz much.

WMR
12-15-2008, 11:18 AM
Signing Taveras makes a lot of sense, considering we only have 3 OF on the roster. (I don't count Nix). Taveraz at a decent price is a smart pickup. Yes, he's not a star, but he has upside.

You typed almost the same thing verbatim last season about Corey Patterson.

Eerily similar.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:20 AM
I'm going to pretend that Walt is stupid like a fox, giving Dusty the tools of his own demise, so Walt can bring in somebody better in 2010.

If that is the case, Walt should be fired for sabotaging the team.

It might be hard to believe, but as a nontendered FA, all three of those guys are at least worth considering. I'm not too high on Miles, but Wiggenton and Taveraz give some depth to a team that has very little depth in position players. They also don't stop the team from upgrading later. They don't cost the Reds prospects or draft picks.

As of now, our OF consists of 3 very young players, one of which is pretty bad (Hopper). The other two look to be better, but it's not a given they will perform well (espeically Dickerson). It's just good business sense to bring in some cheap veteran depth.

Ltlabner
12-15-2008, 11:21 AM
Someone said he had a bad OBP in Coors. Well, Coors is not going to help a guy like Taveraz much.

But GABP will?

flyer85
12-15-2008, 11:27 AM
Someone said he had a bad OBP in Coors. Well, Coors is not going to help a guy like Taveraz much.Coors should help a guy like Taveras a lot because it boosts every type of hit(singles, doubles, triples and HRs). GABP will not help him at all because GABP increases home runs and suppresses singles, doubles and especially triples.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:32 AM
nobody's team with Taveras on it is improved if he is a starter.

This Reds team is. Dickerson shifts to left and Hopper goes to the bench.

pahster
12-15-2008, 11:34 AM
This Reds team is. Dickerson shifts to left and Hopper goes to the bench.

I'm not convinced that Taveras is better than either of those players.

WMR
12-15-2008, 11:34 AM
This Reds team is. Dickerson shifts to left and Hopper goes to the bench.

Except Dickerson is a better defender than Taveras. Hopper and Taveras are just different kinds of bad.

Additionally, calling that team "better" is an insult to the word. Maybe they're "better" if you're judging them against the Riverbats.

Taveras starting for the Reds is going to lead to pain. (And if he's on the roster, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll get LARGE amounts of playing time as well as frequent insertion in the lead-off spot.)

BRM
12-15-2008, 11:35 AM
This Reds team is. Dickerson shifts to left and Hopper goes to the bench.

I can't see any scenario where putting an out machine in the leadoff slot improves the team.

blumj
12-15-2008, 11:36 AM
If Taveras can't hit a respectable number of doubles and triples in Coors, with his speed, where could he hit them?

edabbs44
12-15-2008, 11:36 AM
Except Dickerson is a better defender than Taveras. Hopper and Taveras are just different kinds of bad.

Additionally, calling that team "better" is an insult to the word. Maybe they're "better" if you're judging them against the Riverbats.

Taveras starting for the Reds is going to lead to pain.

Cincy will experience pain no matter who is in CF until they get a few additions to the team.

BRM
12-15-2008, 11:36 AM
I'm not convinced that Taveras is better than either of those players.

I think he's better than Hopper defensively. I'd take Dickerson 8 days a week over Taveras.

TRF
12-15-2008, 11:36 AM
This Reds team is. Dickerson shifts to left and Hopper goes to the bench.

They might as well have re-signed Patterson. Patterson can at least SLG a little bit and has MUCH better D.

All Taveras can do is steal bases. Well any base except 1st, which he can't find with a map. Plus with all that intoxicating speed, Dusty will likely give him 100 starts as the leadoff hitter.

my cub fandom awaits if this happens.

WMR
12-15-2008, 11:36 AM
Cincy will experience pain no matter who is in CF until they get a few additions to the team.

No duh. ;)

BRM
12-15-2008, 11:38 AM
my cub fandom awaits if this happens.

Have you bought a pet goat yet?

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2008, 11:38 AM
If Taveras can't hit a respectable number of doubles and triples in Coors, with his speed, where could he hit them?

Oakland, did you catch their OBP from the leadoff spot last season? Horrible!

TRF
12-15-2008, 11:38 AM
Have you bought a pet goat yet?

My in-laws raise them.

I'm sitting pretty for my newfound cubiness.

BRM
12-15-2008, 11:39 AM
Oakland, did you catch their OBP from the leadoff spot last season? Horrible!

Probably a primary factor in their finishing dead last in runs scored in the AL last year.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:39 AM
You said the same thing about Patterson last spring.

Yes, Patterson was worth a gamble. It didn't work out.

Here's the problem. Finding a star CF is very difficult. Just as difficult as finding an ace pitcher. Sure, I'd love to have a CF that was a good bet OBP 380. But let's say that one was available. No one would want to trade the prospects necessary to get him.

Part of roster construction for a team like the Reds is making compromises.
IMO, the Reds aren't going to contend next year. They can make it to .500 though, which is a huge step in the right direction.

Could Taveraz help them get to 500. Most definitely. He's not the optimal guy, but we can basically get him for free. Much like Hernandez, he's an upgrade on this team.

Someone said that the average OBP for a leadoff hitter is about .340 or .345.
Isn't Taveraz lifetime around 333? That's pretty darn close. The difference is only getting on base maybe 6 or 7 times over the course of a season. Plus, Tavarez plays a premium defensive position pretty well and steals bases.
IMO, Taverez is a decent bet to be an average CF next year. If he ends up tanking like Patterson, he can be benched, just as Patterson was. Patterson got a lot of playing time at the end of the season due to OF injuries and trades, but he was benched.

Look at it this way. Taveraz would take Nix's roster spot.

flyer85
12-15-2008, 11:40 AM
Cincy will experience pain no matter who is in CF until they get a few additions to the team.
the offense , as currently constituted, will not get enough people on base to score runs consistently.

If Walt really wants to help this club he has to find a couple of players who can get on base consistently.

BRM
12-15-2008, 11:41 AM
the offense , as currently constituted, will not get enough people on base to score runs consistently.

If Walt really wants to help this club he has to find a couple of players who can get on base consistently.

Then he needs to quit looking at guys like Taveras.

HokieRed
12-15-2008, 11:42 AM
Nix does give us a potential left-handed hitter off the bench, and, if he takes up a roster spot, he may make the Taveras signing less likely. I'm thinking maybe we go into the year with 5 outfielders: Bruce, Dickerson, RH bat still to be signed, Hopper, Nix. Hopper/Nix CF platoon could be the backup plan if Dickerson can't cut it, which surely they are--and with some rightness--concerned about. (I like Dickerson, but one has to admit there's some degree of uncertainty about him) This is also not figuring Hairston into the mix. Nix/Hairston could be the CF backup plan while giving us two guys who can fill other roles if Dickerson takes firm control of CF--with, in this case, Hopper at AAA or in the 5th outfield spot (with Hairston considered an IF/OF). Bench: Hanigan, Rosales, Keppinger, Hairston, Nix. I'm seeing less room for Taveras with the Nix signing--or maybe I'm just being hopeful.

flyer85
12-15-2008, 11:42 AM
Yes, Patterson was worth a gamble. It didn't work out.

Here's the problem. Finding a star CF is very difficult.Reds don't need a star CF nor a stellar defensive CF(they play half their games in GABP, which has a very small CF and Dunn and Jr are no longer in LF and RF)). Jay Bruce and Dickerson can play CF, the Reds need some guys that can get on base.

Chip R
12-15-2008, 11:43 AM
Did anyone go to the Rockies series in July (I think) at GABP? Taveras absolutely drove the Reds pitchers crazy. Every time he stepped to the plate (2 games) that series it seemed like he found a way to get on base and drive the pitchers nuts. I'm not saying that you shouldn't look at his numbers but sometimes I wonder just what someone like him does to the next two guys in the lineup because the pitcher is so worried about his speed. He was a major pest.


He has been a major pest against Reds pitching with his speed. However, if he's a Red, he won't have that advantage. Other teams seemed to have found a way to shut him down.

The Cubs used to do things like that. Some guy would hit well against him and then they would go out and get him. Most of the time that guy hit well against the Cubs because the Cubs were lousy.

flyer85
12-15-2008, 11:44 AM
Then he needs to quit looking at guys like Taveras.Yep, he might make sense for a park with a big CF to patrol, he makes no sense in GABP.

pahster
12-15-2008, 11:44 AM
I think he's better than Hopper defensively.

Maybe, but Hopper seems to be a better (and I hate to use this term in relation to him) hitter than Taveras.

Career: majors
Taveras: .283/.331/.337/OPS+72
Hopper: .316/.367/.371/OPS+89

Who knows if Hopper can keep that up, though. My guess is no. I still don't want Taveras anywhere near the roster.

pahster
12-15-2008, 11:47 AM
Could Taveraz help them get to 500[?]

No, not unless he becomes a good player, which is something that he is not.

TRF
12-15-2008, 11:50 AM
Yes, Patterson was worth a gamble. It didn't work out.

Here's the problem. Finding a star CF is very difficult. Just as difficult as finding an ace pitcher. Sure, I'd love to have a CF that was a good bet OBP 380. But let's say that one was available. No one would want to trade the prospects necessary to get him.

Part of roster construction for a team like the Reds is making compromises.
IMO, the Reds aren't going to contend next year. They can make it to .500 though, which is a huge step in the right direction.

Could Taveraz help them get to 500. Most definitely. He's not the optimal guy, but we can basically get him for free. Much like Hernandez, he's an upgrade on this team.

Someone said that the average OBP for a leadoff hitter is about .340 or .345.
Isn't Taveraz lifetime around 333? That's pretty darn close. The difference is only getting on base maybe 6 or 7 times over the course of a season. Plus, Tavarez plays a premium defensive position pretty well and steals bases.
IMO, Taverez is a decent bet to be an average CF next year. If he ends up tanking like Patterson, he can be benched, just as Patterson was. Patterson got a lot of playing time at the end of the season due to OF injuries and trades, but he was benched.

Look at it this way. Taveraz would take Nix's roster spot.

No.

Taveras cannot make this team better unless he signs with the Cubs. That could help. Look at it as a comparison of who he would be replacing, CPatt.

Defensively, not close. Patterson is a defensive wiz. say what you want about his offense, defensively he might be the best CF in baseball.

Power, again, not close. A sub .300 SLG? In Freaking Coors Field? I could do that. seriously I think I could and I'm 40 and out of shape. That's beyond putrid, in a park that not only doesn't suppress SLG, for a slap hitter like Taveras, it should enhance every part of his game not linked to HR's

OBP, well you got me there. They have about the same BB rate, but Taveras isn't as contact challenged. He's a lifetime .283 hitter that is likely to hit about .270-.28 for the next few years. HOWEVER, he's got a total of 116 BB's in 541 games or 8 fewer than Adam Dunn drew last year. NOT ACCEPTABLE.

Really he's just a different kind of suck than Patterson, but if I were forced to sign one at gunpoint, I think I'd take CPatt.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:52 AM
But the cliche is ridiculously wrong. Speed slumps just like everything else. If you are not on first, you are not useful, as a hitter. And Tavares' numbers warn of not a slump, they warn of a negative value player.

There's more to the game than OBP though. That's what the other poster was saying.

If speed translates to more defensive range, that creates more outs for the pitching. That part does not slump.

If we signed Taveras today, he's tentatively the CF, and Dickerson is the LF, Bruce is in RF. That's going to help the pitching tremendously compared to last year's OF defense. Extra outs created on defense can offset a lower OBP.

I'm not denying that the Reds offense needs help. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect Walt to acquire a CF that is above average in offense and defense.
Like I said before, they are expensive and seldom on the market.

TRF
12-15-2008, 11:55 AM
If we signed Taveras today, he's tentatively the CF, and Dickerson is the LF, Bruce is in RF. That's going to help the pitching tremendously compared to last year's OF defense. Extra outs created on defense can offset a lower OBP.


How is that different than Dickerson/Patterson/Bruce? which we saw for about two months last year.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:55 AM
You typed almost the same thing verbatim last season about Corey Patterson.

Eerily similar.

Yes, I did.

Last year, the Reds need OF depth. Patterson at about 1.5 million was worth rolling the dice on. Made more sense than trading Ceuto for an above average CF. I feel the same way now. The gamble failed miserably, but it was still a sound move by Wayne.

If Tavaraz was a sure thing, he wouldn't have been nontendered. We would've had to offer prospects for him.

The Reds were basically a last place calibar team last year. Teams like the Reds can add talent by sifting through the junkpile. Not all the gambles work, but some do. The alternative is to trade prospects to get a stopgap CF, and that does not make a lot of sense, IMO.

flyer85
12-15-2008, 11:55 AM
If we signed Taveras today, he's tentatively the CF, and Dickerson is the LF, Bruce is in RF. That's going to help the pitching tremendously compared to last year's OF defense. Extra outs created on defense can offset a lower OBP.
only because of the changes in LF and RF. CF would have nothing to do with it. The Reds would be better off with Drew Stubbs in CF(who I am not particularly a fan of) than Taveras.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:57 AM
But GABP will?

Of course it won't, but it's not as if Tavarez's stats were "Coors inflated".

Maybe his OBP will improve next year, maybe it will get worse, maybe it will match his career average. Who knows for sure? It's a risk. I wouldn't break the bank for the guy, but he's a good candidate to take a flyer on.

BRM
12-15-2008, 11:58 AM
There's more to the game than OBP though. That's what the other poster was saying.

If speed translates to more defensive range, that creates more outs for the pitching. That part does not slump.

If we signed Taveras today, he's tentatively the CF, and Dickerson is the LF, Bruce is in RF. That's going to help the pitching tremendously compared to last year's OF defense. Extra outs created on defense can offset a lower OBP.

I'm not denying that the Reds offense needs help. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect Walt to acquire a CF that is above average in offense and defense.
Like I said before, they are expensive and seldom on the market.

The Reds will struggle to stay of the basement in the runs scored department with that OF. Dickerson might be able to be league average offensively as a centerfielder. As a leftfielder, he'd rank near the bottom.

Taveras' defense isn't that good that it can make up for his horrific offense. Just glancing at the Fielding Bible and I don't see his name among the top CF'ers for 2007 or 2008.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:58 AM
Coors should help a guy like Taveras a lot because it boosts every type of hit(singles, doubles, triples and HRs). GABP will not help him at all because GABP increases home runs and suppresses singles, doubles and especially triples.

Coors does not help a guy like Taveraz that doesn't hit the ball very hard.

Joseph
12-15-2008, 11:58 AM
Wiggy is apparently drawing interest in the Twin cities as a 3b.

REDREAD
12-15-2008, 11:59 AM
I'm not convinced that Taveras is better than either of those players.

Is he better than Nix though? The Reds need some OF depth. How do you propose we get it?