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View Full Version : Prospect #25 runoff vote



OnBaseMachine
12-14-2008, 02:52 PM
It's down to Jeremy Horst or Travis Wood.

camisadelgolf
12-14-2008, 02:53 PM
Wood is coming off a bad year, and Horst is coming off a good year. I don't think Wood will ever do any worse, and I don't think Horst will ever do any better.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 04:27 PM
I don't know that I agree with Cam's opinion completely but I'd say the conclusion is probably about right Wood (Feb. '87) still has the velocity going for him and his change up is very good and he is actually younger than Horst (Oct. '85) and 2 levels higher. Although I'd say realistically they both should have been at the same level, but I suspect Wood would have outperformed him there.

Bottom line too me is Velocity and right now Wood still has it and Horst doesn't have enough yet and maybe never will. Horst has Maloney upside unless he finds a few more MPH. So Wood has the ceiling and the floor, but his time is running out. Fortunately he has seemingly made it through the injury nexus without completely blowing up so maybe now in his 22 year old season he may put it together finally.

Superdude
12-14-2008, 05:05 PM
Is Wood even throwing harder than Horst at this point? Horst is usually around 90 isn't he?

*BaseClogger*
12-14-2008, 05:16 PM
Pick a lefty...

camisadelgolf
12-14-2008, 05:47 PM
Is Wood even throwing harder than Horst at this point? Horst is usually around 90 isn't he?

Their velocities are similar. I think Horst might have a 1 MPH advantage. I think Wood's changeup rates better, but they both have great changeups.

mace
12-14-2008, 06:01 PM
What I like about Horst is that 1) he took off at virtually the instant the Dragons put him in the rotation last year, and 2) he was clutch and dominant in the playoffs. I won't judge him by stuff because I haven't seen it. I have seen, however, that he has 165 K in 143.2 innings.

Wood is slightly younger, but bear in mind that Horst wasn't signed until he was 21. I also like the fact that he's a big guy.

That said, when Wood was in Dayton -- before getting hurt -- there was a lot to like, too.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 07:12 PM
Is Wood even throwing harder than Horst at this point? Horst is usually around 90 isn't he?

I've never heard of Horst throwing anywhere near where Wood throws it. But I suppose it's possible that in order to be effective Wood may have to dial it down a bit. I thought Wood had as much as 3 MPH on Horst, Wood at 93-95 and Horst at 89-92.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 08:38 PM
They have similar velocities, but Wood does have a small advantage or 1-2 MPH. He also has a better change up, but Horst has a very good change up himself. I went with Horst though because right now, he has shown better health and he throws a lot more strikes. Horst doesn't have the ceiling, but his floor is a bit higher I believe. Right now, I think Horst has less to improve upon to be a major leaguer.

RED VAN HOT
12-14-2008, 08:46 PM
Wood is slightly younger, but bear in mind that Horst wasn't signed until he was 21. I also like the fact that he's a big guy.

I have often wondered about the advantage of being big. Intuitively, it seems to me that a big guy has an advantage in that his release point will be closer to the batter. That would effectively shorten the time that the batter has to react to the pitch. A little quick math on my part indicates that the reaction time may be shortened by as much as one one hundredth of a second. I am sure this has been explored by others. Can someone comment?

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 08:53 PM
I have often wondered about the advantage of being big. Intuitively, it seems to me that a big guy has an advantage in that his release point will be closer to the batter. That would effectively shorten the time that the batter has to react to the pitch. A little quick math on my part indicates that the reaction time may be shortened by as much as one one hundredth of a second. I am sure this has been explored by others. Can someone comment?
While that seems like it makes sense, the physics don't exactly work that way. The Pitch FX system has really brought that to light. The spin that the ball has actually has more to do with it than anything else. You can have two pitches at 95 MPH when they start (which is where its actually measured) and both cross the plate at a fairly significant drop in speed. One may cross the plate at 81.5 MPH and another might cross at 83.5 MPH.

Mario-Rijo
12-14-2008, 09:39 PM
While that seems like it makes sense, the physics don't exactly work that way. The Pitch FX system has really brought that to light. The spin that the ball has actually has more to do with it than anything else. You can have two pitches at 95 MPH when they start (which is where its actually measured) and both cross the plate at a fairly significant drop in speed. One may cross the plate at 81.5 MPH and another might cross at 83.5 MPH.

What exactly do you mean Doug? How fast the ball spins determines which 95 MPH fastball is more effective? Please explain I'm just not seeing how a tall guy with the same velocity wouldn't have an advantage all other things being the same for example.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 10:01 PM
What exactly do you mean Doug? How fast the ball spins determines which 95 MPH fastball is more effective? Please explain I'm just not seeing how a tall guy with the same velocity wouldn't have an advantage all other things being the same for example.

The spin of the ball determines the deceleration of the baseball as it goes forward. Two fastballs leaving the pitchers hand 55 feet from home plate are not going to cross home plate at the same speed, one is actually going to get to the plate faster because it is decelerating slower.

Example - Edinson Volquez last start of the year. First pitch of the game was first clocked at 94.0 MPH and it crossed home plate at 84.6 MPH. His third pitch of the game was first clocked at 94.5 MPH and it crossed home plate at 86.6 MPH. The fifth pitch of the game was first clocked at 96.0 MPH and it crossed home plate at 86.4 MPH. The spin of the pitch will cause it to decelerate at differing rates, even when they start out at similar speeds.

redsof72
12-14-2008, 10:09 PM
I have not seen Wood pitch so I can't comment on him. Horst is a lefty, but as many readers are aware, he is much better against right-handed hitters than left-handers because his change-up is harder for a right-handed hitter to lay off of. Horst will never be a situational lefty type.

In regards to age, one thing I would take into consideration with a guy like Horst is that when he was drafted in '07 as a 21 year old, he was not a polished product out of LSU or Texas. He was a guy out of Armstrong Atlantic in Georgia who had an ERA of over 5.00 in his last year of college (and had come out of high school in North Dakota, where the high school season had to be very brief). Then in 2008, as a 22 year old, he made huge advances and was dominant. He might have improved as much as almost any pitcher in the organization over the course of the 2008 season. If he improves as much from '08 to '09 as he did from '07 to '08, his age would not be as much of a factor.

That is not to say he is a better or worse prospect than Wood. Just something to consider.

Doug, if Wood has a better change-up than Horst, then Wood has one tremendous change-up.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 10:12 PM
Doug, if Wood has a better change-up than Horst, then Wood has one tremendous change-up.

A scout I have talked to said this year after seeing Wood in Chattanooga that Travis Wood has the best change up of any lefty in baseball that isn't named Cole Hamels. Take it for what its worth, but I certainly believe him. It is that good.

redsof72
12-14-2008, 10:14 PM
This should be a separate thread but those who enjoy following the Reds minor league system might keep an eye out Monday. My sources tell me there will be an announcement that you will find at least interesting and maybe very exciting regarding a 2009 event.

dougdirt
12-14-2008, 10:18 PM
This should be a separate thread but those who enjoy following the Reds minor league system might keep an eye out Monday. My sources tell me there will be an announcement that you will find at least interesting and maybe very exciting regarding a 2009 event.
I heard of an announcement for Monday, but no one would say a peep about what it was other than it was going to be big for Dayton and the Reds.... I am quite curious. :thumbup:

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2008, 01:11 AM
I heard of an announcement for Monday, but no one would say a peep about what it was other than it was going to be big for Dayton and the Reds.... I am quite curious. :thumbup:

WHIO Channel 7 News here in the Miami Valley just made mention of it as well, but like our good friend redsof72 didn't let the cat out of the bag. What could be so big that not even our own will tell us? I assume he knows maybe he doesn't. Anyway what do you all think this could be? I'm thinking maybe a Dragonsfest or something held in Dayton with a bunch of Reds there as well. But that really doesn't make much sense IMO if it's something we'll all be excited about.

mace
12-15-2008, 01:42 AM
CNN has declared Travis Wood the winner. Horst just called to congratulate him.

dougdirt
12-15-2008, 01:44 AM
WHIO Channel 7 News here in the Miami Valley just made mention of it as well, but like our good friend redsof72 didn't let the cat out of the bag. What could be so big that not even our own will tell us? I assume he knows maybe he doesn't. Anyway what do you all think this could be? I'm thinking maybe a Dragonsfest or something held in Dayton with a bunch of Reds there as well. But that really doesn't make much sense IMO if it's something we'll all be excited about.

I am thinking something to the extent of either a 'futures' type game like what they will have in Carolina this year or maybe an exhibition game between the Reds and another MLB team in late March right before the season begins.... something like that. Can't wait to actually find out what it is though.

redsfandan
12-15-2008, 02:18 AM
I don't know what the status of the partnership is but could it be something as simple as an extension of dayton as a Reds affiliate?

edit: ahh nevermind, he DID say an "event".

JayBruceFan
12-15-2008, 02:27 AM
Jeremy Horst

More of a "what have you done for me lately" vote than anything

JayBruceFan
12-15-2008, 02:31 AM
I am thinking something to the extent of either a 'futures' type game like what they will have in Carolina this year or maybe an exhibition game between the Reds and another MLB team in late March right before the season begins.... something like that. Can't wait to actually find out what it is though.

They would have announced something like that already

But on the other hand the Reds do have an open exhibition slot on their ST Schedule

If it happens, I hope it doesn't suck as much as the last one did

I will probably be at whatever they are having due to my employment at the stadium

dougdirt
12-15-2008, 02:35 AM
http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/dragons/2008/12/15/ddn121508spdragons.html

DAYTON — Nearly 100 players in the Cincinnati Reds' minor league system played at some point for the Class A Dayton Dragons, and many of them will return to Fifth Third Field on Saturday, April 4, for a unique organizational Futures game to be played against the parent Reds.

The game will be played in the afternoon, but no time has been set as yet.

This morning, Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty and farm director Terry Reynolds are to outline the details of the game at a Fifth Third Field media conference.

Although the Reds won't know until the final week of spring training which players will be in Dayton, they'll want to highlight some of their better prospects, such as Todd Frazier, Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco, Chris Valaika, Zack Cozart and Devin Mesoraco.

Dragons fans might also be interested in first baseman Yonder Alonso, who was the Reds' first-round draft choice last season but signed too late to be assigned here. Instead, Alonso was sent to Sarasota for post-draft workouts and eventually played in a few games with the high Class A Reds team there.

It is unlikely the Reds will assign Alonso to the Dragons for this season.

Dragons President Bob Murphy said the idea of a Futures game grew out of an end-of-season meeting with the Reds discussing how the Reds could better market themselves in the Dayton area and beyond.

Murphy said it would also be good for the Dragons' organization.

"I want to bring really cool events to the city of Dayton," Murphy said. "This will be great for our loyal fans. It will be a big deal. We're going to have special uniforms and commemorative gifts. Nothing like this has been done before."

The Reds like the idea so much, they're going to hold a similar game the day before, on April 3, at their new Class AA site in North Carolina. A major difference will be, none of the players will have come up through the Carolina team.

The Reds also should have plenty of former Dragons on their roster. During this past season, 13 made the club at one point, although at least two of them — outfielder Adam Dunn and pitcher Todd Coffey — won't be back. Dunn is now with the Diamondbacks and Coffey with the Brewers.

Other former Dragons who played for the Reds this season were Chris Dickerson, Joey Votto, Ryan Hanigan, Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Rosales, Paul Janish, Homer Bailey, Ramon Ramirez, Johnny Cueto and Daryl Thompson.

JayBruceFan
12-15-2008, 02:37 AM
Oh Goody

mace
12-15-2008, 10:49 AM
Jeremy Horst

More of a "what have you done for me lately" vote than anything

Well, since he's only been around for two years, and pitched in 53 games, "lately" is pretty much all he's got. But if you must: For his career, he has a 2.63 ERA. For his career, he has a 1.17 WHIP. For his career, he has 165 K in 143.2 IP. For his career, he's 11-4. Wood can't touch any of those numbers.

Now, Wood started young and he has pitched a lot more innings and he has dealt with injuries. I'm not disputing his prospect status. I'm just disputing the statement.

lollipopcurve
12-15-2008, 11:29 AM
Wood has had too many arm issues -- couple that with pretty dreadful performance in AA last year and I have to go with the healthy arm here. One guy's trajectory is quickly improving, the other's sinking. I can see no reason to be counter-intuitive in this case.

OnBaseMachine
12-15-2008, 03:07 PM
Wood won in a landslide. The next poll will be open soon.