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Benihana
12-15-2008, 10:51 PM
I know all about his no-trade clauses, his preferred teams, etc. Now that it appears neither Atlanta nor the Cubs will be trading for him, will he open up his list? Regardless of whether or not he does, suspend disbelief for a minute and assume he's willing to play anywhere. Assume you're Walt- what would be your absolute best offer to Kevin Towers for Jake Peavy at this moment? Assume you get one chance to make your best offer- kind of like an auction. What would it entail? (Try to factor in what the Padres would be interested in)

I'll start:

I would give them their choice of any four from the following:

Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson
Ramon Ramirez
Josh Roenicke
Zach Stewart
Jared Burton
Chris Valaika
Todd Frazier
Drew Stubbs

Or if they wanted Encarnacion, I would offer him + any two from above. I wouldn't trade Cueto, Volquez, or Bruce, and I would assume they wouldn't be interested in Votto (because of Gonzalez.)

Highlifeman21
12-15-2008, 10:52 PM
If the Cubs couldn't make it happen, what makes you think the Reds could make it happen?

Jpup
12-15-2008, 10:56 PM
If the Cubs couldn't make it happen, what makes you think the Reds could make it happen?

The Reds have chips to trade. I almost think I would trade anyone in the organization for him. The Cubs don't have anything to trade.

corkedbat
12-15-2008, 10:58 PM
If the Cubs couldn't make it happen, what makes you think the Reds could make it happen?

I don't think it will happen, but I think we could put together a package of young players as attractive as the Cubbies - even w/o the "big four"

Highlifeman21
12-15-2008, 11:01 PM
I don't think it will happen, but I think we could put together a package of young players as attractive as the Cubbies - even w/o the "big four"

Ok, but do you trade a combination of Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto or any of the other warm bodies in the farm system?

If I'm the Padres, I'm asking for all 4 of those to start, and not trading Peavy to the Reds unless I feel like I've bent Walt over and screwed him with his pants on.

corkedbat
12-15-2008, 11:10 PM
Ok, but do you trade a combination of Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto or any of the other warm bodies in the farm system?

If I'm the Padres, I'm asking for all 4 of those to start, and not trading Peavy to the Reds unless I feel like I've bent Walt over and screwed him with his pants on.

Then I don't do it. I hold on to the core - if I'm dealing for Peavy, I'm trying to compete and I'd have a tougher time tihout them.


I said I didn't see it happening, but my previous post wasn't really about acquiring him. I was just saying that the Reds could make an offer as attractive as the Cubs made.

I'd be willing to give them Francisco, Stubbs, Bailey, and Roenicke. I 'd even offer them another prospect or replace Francisco with Encarnacion. The Padres might not like it and might insist on one of the "big four. " but I believe it would be better than what the Scrubs could offer.

redsfan4445
12-15-2008, 11:11 PM
Harang is from San Diego!.. Would they Take Harang , Bailey and Roenicke?

corkedbat
12-15-2008, 11:36 PM
Harang is from San Diego!.. Would they Take Harang , Bailey and Roenicke?

I'd offer them Harang or Arroyo, but if they were willing to take on a contract like theirs, they wouldn't be dealing Peavy

Mario-Rijo
12-15-2008, 11:54 PM
I don't believe we have to have him so my offer would reflect that more than the opposite. And let's not forget that you are doing them a big favor as well by taking on all that salary that they can afford but just barely and I'm sure would much rather have the prospects at this point.

Off Limits
Volquez
Cueto
Bruce
Votto
Frazier
Alonso
Soto
Burton

I'd offer them a fair but unspectacular deal, but suited to fit their needs with a little work on their part.

What they desperately need for that Organization is:

A CF who can cover ground and who could potentially hit for power.
Check: Drew Stubbs

A power arm that might be able to replace Peavy at some point.
Check: Homer Bailey

A solid SS option that can hit and field.
Check: Chris Valaika

A guy who could eventually hit for power even there.
Check: Juan Francisco

An option that can be a bridge to Valaika at SS
Check: Alex Gonzales (Or Kepp if I must)

What I want:
Jake Peavy & Brian Giles

I don't expect them to bite perse but again 4 of our top 10-15 prospects is a solid offer and guys who fit their needs and we are taking on significant salary. If they want a 5th prospect maybe a Matt Maloney or a Sean Watson or the like I would go that much further but that's it. Them taking on Gonzo isn't necc. a deal breaker but I will try to make them feel like it unless they press me to the wall on the issue then I would send them Keppinger instead.

I'd then turn and explore an Arroyo to Atlanta deal for Escobar or to Texas for an Andrus or Cruz based deal.

mth123
12-31-2008, 01:48 PM
The Cubs look like they are gearing up for a move now.

They traded Marquis for Luis Vizcaino saved some bucks and deepened the pen.
They signed Aaron Miles as IF depth.
They dealt Mark Derosa to Cle for three pitching prospects.

I wonder if the next move isn't Peavey. They have more pitching prospects to trade. They can move a pen arm with Vizcaino on board and have opened a rotation spot with Marquis gone. Hmmm?

PuffyPig
12-31-2008, 01:58 PM
The Cubs look like they are gearing up for a move now.

They traded Marquis for Luis Vizcaino saved some bucks and deepened the pen.
They signed Aaron Miles as IF depth.
They dealt Mark Derosa to Cle for three pitching prospects.

I wonder if the next move isn't Peavey. They have more pitching prospects to trade. They can move a pen arm with Vizcaino on board and have opened a rotation spot with Marquis gone. Hmmm?

Bingo.

It's been reported that the pitchers coming to Chicago are going to the Pads as part of the Peavy deal. Otherwise, the Derosa deal is senseless.

PuffyPig
12-31-2008, 02:07 PM
Ok, but do you trade a combination of Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto or any of the other warm bodies in the farm system?

If I'm the Padres, I'm asking for all 4 of those to start, and not trading Peavy to the Reds unless I feel like I've bent Walt over and screwed him with his pants on.

The pads have recieved few offers for Peavy, and the buzz about him hasn't been something to suggest that Towers can stand there and demand "Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Volquez" or even one be included in a trade.

A $23M per year Peavy simply doesn't have that kind of value, especially when there are rumours of a possible injury.

He's worth some prospects, but not worth clearing out the cupboard of our very best prospects. look what kind of crap the Cubs have been offering.

What is Towers going to say? You either give me Votto, Bruce, Volquez and Cueto, or I'm trading Peavy to the Cubs for a bunch of crap? Towers is not in a position of stength. We say that last year when the Twins were desperately trying to find someone to take Santana, who's a better pitcher than Peavy.

When Peavy is traded (and he will be) it will be for much less than what the Reds could have given. But a $23M Peavy isn't worth Fraizer, Bailey, Stubbs and Burton, or whatever. Not for any team with a payroll of less than $100M.

When Peavy gets traded, it will be Tower who looks like he got screwed.

OnBaseMachine
12-31-2008, 02:23 PM
The Cubs farm system is awful. They have maybe one very good prospect and that's Josh Vitters. Any deal involving Peavy to the Cubs will be an awful trade for the Padres IMO.

mth123
12-31-2008, 02:25 PM
The pads have recieved few offers for Peavy, and the buzz about him hasn't been something to suggest that Towers can stand there and demand "Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Volquez" or even one be included in a trade.

A $23M per year Peavy simply doesn't have that kind of value, especially when there are rumours of a possible injury.

He's worth some prospects, but not worth clearing out the cupboard of our very best prospects. look what kind of crap the Cubs have been offering.

What is Towers going to say? You either give me Votto, Bruce, Volquez and Cueto, or I'm trading Peavy to the Cubs for a bunch of crap? Towers is not in a position of stength. We say that last year when the Twins were desperately trying to find someone to take Santana, who's a better pitcher than Peavy.

When Peavy is traded (and he will be) it will be for much less than what the Reds could have given. But a $23M Peavy isn't worth Fraizer, Bailey, Stubbs and Burton, or whatever. Not for any team with a payroll of less than $100M.

When Peavy gets traded, it will be Tower who looks like he got screwed.

Numbers are off a bit:

2009 - $8 Million
2010 - $15 Million
2011 - $16 Million
2012 - $17 Million
2013 - $22 Million or a $4 Million buy-out.

That's not bad. I'd go Bailey, Valaika, Thompson, Roenicke, Stubbs, Frazier and Francisco for him. Then I'd consder dealing Arroyo for position help. You'd actually save money in 09 and not take a huge hit in 2010.

lollipopcurve
12-31-2008, 02:34 PM
I'd go Bailey, Valaika, Thompson, Roenicke, Stubbs, Frazier and Francisco for him.

Wow. For one player? There's talk that Peavy has arm problems, too. I'd be very surprised if he is productive through the length of his contract.

Caveat Emperor
12-31-2008, 02:43 PM
Wow. For one player? There's talk that Peavy has arm problems, too. I'd be very surprised if he is productive through the length of his contract.

Has there ever been a pitcher on the trade block where rumors of "arm problems" aren't circulating somewhere?

Smells an awful lot like "value modification" going on by forces in the marketplace.

OnBaseMachine
12-31-2008, 02:44 PM
There ain't no way I would do that deal.

jojo
12-31-2008, 02:45 PM
Here's the thing-wipe off any back end starters or arms projected to be a reliever from the "choose from" list. The Padres already know how to grab guys like that pretty easily and transform them into useful guys on their staff. They probably wouldn't attach a ton of value to a list of similar arms.

Concerning position players, they'd probably want more projectable players (i.e. ones whose future position isn't a source for debate among scouts). They do like their position players to be legitimate defenders too.

On top of all of that, I'm not sure Peavey is a good target for the Reds

mth123
12-31-2008, 02:48 PM
Wow. For one player? There's talk that Peavy has arm problems, too. I'd be very surprised if he is productive through the length of his contract.

No top can't miss guys there. Quantity for Quality. I actually think Bailey is still going to be a very good starter, but his value is probably down. Obviously I would try to get Peavy for less, but I'd give up all those guys for him if that is what it took. I would look into the health issues more though. Add what Arroyo might bring back and the team would be ready for a number of years. I'm not sure there is a position for Francisco, Valiaka and Frazier. Thompson and Roenicke are middle relievers (where the Reds have depth). I'd substitute Taveras for Stubbs;), but Stubbs is a question mark so far. Maybe I pull back Thompson and Frazier.

Jpup
12-31-2008, 02:48 PM
I know all about his no-trade clauses, his preferred teams, etc. Now that it appears neither Atlanta nor the Cubs will be trading for him, will he open up his list? Regardless of whether or not he does, suspend disbelief for a minute and assume he's willing to play anywhere. Assume you're Walt- what would be your absolute best offer to Kevin Towers for Jake Peavy at this moment? Assume you get one chance to make your best offer- kind of like an auction. What would it entail? (Try to factor in what the Padres would be interested in)

I'll start:

I would give them their choice of any four from the following:

Homer Bailey
Daryl Thompson
Ramon Ramirez
Josh Roenicke
Zach Stewart
Jared Burton
Chris Valaika
Todd Frazier
Drew Stubbs

Or if they wanted Encarnacion, I would offer him + any two from above. I wouldn't trade Cueto, Volquez, or Bruce, and I would assume they wouldn't be interested in Votto (because of Gonzalez.)

I'd give them everyone on that list. Save Burton, I'm not sure any of them will be much at the MLB level.

mth123
12-31-2008, 02:51 PM
Here's the thing-wipe off any back end starters or arms projected to be a reliever from the "choose from" list. The Padres already know how to grab guys like that pretty easily and transform them into useful guys on their staff. They probably wouldn't attach a ton of value to a list of similar arms.

Concerning position players, they'd probably want more projectable players (i.e. ones whose future position isn't a source for debate among scouts). They do like their position players to be legitimate defenders too.

On top of all of that, I'm not sure Peavey is a good target for the Reds

But if its true that the guys the Cubs got from Cle for DeRosa are a major part of the deal, then this isn't true. Those are back-end starters and pen arms. Is Vitters a legit defender (I don't know about his defense)?

OnBaseMachine
12-31-2008, 02:53 PM
I'd give them everyone on that list. Save Burton, I'm not sure any of them will be much at the MLB level.

That's crazy, IMO. There is no way I would give up all of those players for Peavy. I like Peavy, but he's an injury risk and his career ERA is 3.80 away from Petco Park.

PuffyPig
12-31-2008, 03:07 PM
I'd give them everyone on that list. Save Burton, I'm not sure any of them will be much at the MLB level.


I'm not sure that any one of them will be good, buy I'm pretty sure that some of them will be.

WebScorpion
01-02-2009, 10:58 AM
We're talking about the 2007 Cy Young award winner, right? The last guy to win the pitching triple crown? ...and we get him at ages 28-31 for $11M, $15M, $16M, and $17M?? Our 2009 (and beyond) rotation would be:

Jake Peavy
Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto

Well, for starters I'd give them any one of our 5th starter (Bailey, Owings, Ramirez, Thompson) candidates, or even two if they wanted them. I also can't think of anyone in our Minor League system I wouldn't give them either. As far as the Major League team; I'd give them Taveras, Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Keppinger, Dickinson and anyone else who starts the game on the bench 50% of the time or greater. I'd try to make the package 2 Major Leaguers and one prospect, 1 Major Leaguer and 3 prospects, or 5 prospects. So these are the absolute best packages I would offer them: Bailey, Encanacion, Alonso (PTBNL) - Bailey or Encarnacion, Alonso (PTBNL), Frazier, Soto or Stubbs - Alonso (PTBNL), Frazier, Soto, Stubbs, Valaika or Lotzkar.
I would start much lower than that, say Owings, Dorn, Roenicke, Hererra or something like that and just play with the general rule that one Major Leaguer (anyone who has lost their rookie status) = two prospects and let them mix and match who they thought was enticing.
Interesting idea, but realistically I don't see Peavy accepting a trade anywhere he doesn't want to go. Now having one or more of the players contact Peavy to sell him on the virtues of the 2009 Reds wouldn't be a bad idea... :thumbup:

blumj
01-02-2009, 11:15 AM
Unless Peavy and his agent are both morons, why wouldn't they leverage his no trade clause into a significantly larger contract?

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 02:40 PM
The pads have recieved few offers for Peavy, and the buzz about him hasn't been something to suggest that Towers can stand there and demand "Votto, Bruce, Cueto and Volquez" or even one be included in a trade.

A $23M per year Peavy simply doesn't have that kind of value, especially when there are rumours of a possible injury.

He's worth some prospects, but not worth clearing out the cupboard of our very best prospects. look what kind of crap the Cubs have been offering.

What is Towers going to say? You either give me Votto, Bruce, Volquez and Cueto, or I'm trading Peavy to the Cubs for a bunch of crap? Towers is not in a position of stength. We say that last year when the Twins were desperately trying to find someone to take Santana, who's a better pitcher than Peavy.

When Peavy is traded (and he will be) it will be for much less than what the Reds could have given. But a $23M Peavy isn't worth Fraizer, Bailey, Stubbs and Burton, or whatever. Not for any team with a payroll of less than $100M.

When Peavy gets traded, it will be Tower who looks like he got screwed.

The Pads don't have to trade Peavy. If the Reds come a callin', then there's demand for Peavy, rather than the Pads to say they have a supply of Peavy available to the market. The only difference between these two scenarios is The Pads start off and say "Votto, Volquez, Cueto & Bruce, plus", or the Reds start off with some most likely unimpressive offer and the Pads come back and say "Votto, Volquez, Cueto & Bruce, plus".

I'm not sure if Peavy is worth at least those 4 prospects, but if I'm the Pads (and that's my argument) then I don't budge unless I'm blown away by an offer from the Reds.

Towers will get a good return for Peavy, and all of us know it won't be from the Reds.

OnBaseMachine
01-02-2009, 03:46 PM
The only difference between these two scenarios is The Pads start off and say "Votto, Volquez, Cueto & Bruce, plus", or the Reds start off with some most likely unimpressive offer and the Pads come back and say "Votto, Volquez, Cueto & Bruce, plus".


And then Jocketty laughs in the Padres face and hangs up the phone. There's not a player in major league baseball worth all four of those guys.

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 03:51 PM
And then Jocketty laughs in the Padres face and hangs up the phone. There's not a player in major league baseball worth all four of those guys.

And you might be right, but I can't imagine Towers not starting the conversation off with "I want those 4".

kaldaniels
01-02-2009, 06:56 PM
I'd lead off talks by offering Volquez or Cueto...their choice. There, I said it.

kaldaniels
01-02-2009, 06:59 PM
Numbers are off a bit:

2009 - $8 Million
2010 - $15 Million
2011 - $16 Million
2012 - $17 Million
2013 - $22 Million or a $4 Million buy-out.

That's not bad. I'd go Bailey, Valaika, Thompson, Roenicke, Stubbs, Frazier and Francisco for him. Then I'd consder dealing Arroyo for position help. You'd actually save money in 09 and not take a huge hit in 2010.

Trades like this always make me think of playing Madden and executing trades...if I want say, Peyton Manning, I can't offer all my 2nd tier players upon the Colts, no matter how many players I offer, and expect them to go for it. One superstar is going to have to go the other way. You gotta bring your big guns if you want to play the Jake Peavy game.

mth123
01-02-2009, 08:50 PM
Trades like this always make me think of playing Madden and executing trades...if I want say, Peyton Manning, I can't offer all my 2nd tier players upon the Colts, no matter how many players I offer, and expect them to go for it. One superstar is going to have to go the other way. You gotta bring your big guns if you want to play the Jake Peavy game.

Who are the stars dealt for Santana or Haren?

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 09:01 PM
Who are the stars dealt for Santana or Haren?

Carlos Gomez was probably the biggest name dealt to the Twins for Santana.

I can't for the life of me think who was the biggest name dealt to Oakland for Haren.

Razor Shines
01-02-2009, 09:01 PM
Ok, but do you trade a combination of Votto, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto or any of the other warm bodies in the farm system?

If I'm the Padres, I'm asking for all 4 of those to start, and not trading Peavy to the Reds unless I feel like I've bent Walt over and screwed him with his pants on.

How many pairs of underwear is Walt allowed to wear?

kaldaniels
01-02-2009, 09:38 PM
Who are the stars dealt for Santana or Haren?

To answer...

A) Santana was a straight dump because the Twins were going to lose him in Free Agency. It was not a evenly matched "baseball player for player trade"...spin that however you like, but you know what I'm talking about.

B) Haren was not in the Peavy category at that point in his career...sure he is a great arm and I'd love to have him but at the time of his trade he was not a top-5 MLB starting pitcher...and the D'Backs gave up their #1 prospect, as ranked by Baseball America...along with 3 or 4 more Top 10 (DBack) prospects.

My post stats that when trading on Madden, you have to give up a superstar to get one back...I didn't say that about the Reds. What that post was inferring was that you can't get quality goods for a mass quanitity of, lets face it, 2nd tier prospects.

Of course when dealing prospects for a legit superstar, the prospects aren't going to be stars at that point. But c'mon several of the lists prior in this thread don't offer up Volquez,Bruce,Cueto,Votto,Alonso,or Soto. You are going to have to give up a top-shelf star or top-shelf prospect if you want to deal for one the the game's top-5 pitchers with 4 years left on his deal

Highlifeman21
01-02-2009, 09:45 PM
To answer...

A) Santana was a straight dump because the Twins were going to lose him in Free Agency. It was not a evenly matched "baseball player for player trade"...spin that however you like, but you know what I'm talking about.

B) Haren was not in the Peavy category at that point in his career...sure he is a great arm and I'd love to have him but at the time of his trade he was not a top-5 MLB starting pitcher...and the D'Backs gave up their #1 prospect, as ranked by Baseball America...along with 3 or 4 more Top 10 (DBack) prospects.

My post stats that when trading on Madden, you have to give up a superstar to get one back...I didn't say that about the Reds. What that post was inferring was that you can't get quality goods for a mass quanitity of, lets face it, 2nd tier prospects.

Of course when dealing prospects for a legit superstar, the prospects aren't going to be stars at that point. But c'mon several of the lists prior in this thread don't offer up Volquez,Bruce,Cueto,Votto,Alonso,or Soto. You are going to have to give up a top-shelf star or top-shelf prospect if you want to deal for one the the game's top-5 pitchers with 4 years left on his deal

1. While Carlos Gomez may not become as good as Johan Santana, Gomez certainly is something special. Phillip Humber is the only other name of substance in the Santana deal.

2. Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland are no slouches. I was wrong about the Haren trade at the time. I thought the As gave away Haren for nothing, but now I think the As actually got the better end of the deal.

mth123
01-02-2009, 09:54 PM
To answer...

A) Santana was a straight dump because the Twins were going to lose him in Free Agency. It was not a evenly matched "baseball player for player trade"...spin that however you like, but you know what I'm talking about.

B) Haren was not in the Peavy category at that point in his career...sure he is a great arm and I'd love to have him but at the time of his trade he was not a top-5 MLB starting pitcher...and the D'Backs gave up their #1 prospect, as ranked by Baseball America...along with 3 or 4 more Top 10 (DBack) prospects.

My post stats that when trading on Madden, you have to give up a superstar to get one back...I didn't say that about the Reds. What that post was inferring was that you can't get quality goods for a mass quanitity of, lets face it, 2nd tier prospects.

Of course when dealing prospects for a legit superstar, the prospects aren't going to be stars at that point. But c'mon several of the lists prior in this thread don't offer up Volquez,Bruce,Cueto,Votto,Alonso,or Soto. You are going to have to give up a top-shelf star or top-shelf prospect if you want to deal for one the the game's top-5 pitchers with 4 years left on his deal

Might agree on Santana, but Haren may offset the status issue with the fantastic contract that accompanied him. Add some injury question concerning Peavy to the situation in SD and it may mean the Pads need to take a lesser deal. I just keep seeing star caliber guys being dealt for 3rd and 4th type prospects from other organizations, so I question why the assumption is that it always has to be Cueto, Volquez, Votto and/or Bruce when the Reds are mentioned. I think the Orioles got multiple top guys for Bedard and the Tigers gave up a top guy for Cabrera/Willis but a lot of star caliber players have been acquired without the acquiring teams giving up the top 2 or 3 guys.

Its a moot point. Peavy would never play in Cincy.

kaldaniels
01-02-2009, 10:54 PM
Might agree on Santana, but Haren may offset the status issue with the fantastic contract that accompanied him. Add some injury question concerning Peavy to the situation in SD and it may mean the Pads need to take a lesser deal. I just keep seeing star caliber guys being dealt for 3rd and 4th type prospects from other organizations, so I question why the assumption is that it always has to be Cueto, Volquez, Votto and/or Bruce when the Reds are mentioned. I think the Orioles got multiple top guys for Bedard and the Tigers gave up a top guy for Cabrera/Willis but a lot of star caliber players have been acquired without the acquiring teams giving up the top 2 or 3 guys.

Its a moot point. Peavy would never play in Cincy.

Every trade is different, which makes it hard to compare deals on a 1 to 1 basis. But Peavy is one of the top-5 pitchers in all of baseball. It is going to take more than a Homer Bailey to lead a package of prospects to acquire him in a market (albeit fantasy market) where all teams are potential bidders. Sure as of now it is a moot question...but if all MLB teams knew Peavy was on the market and the bidding started...it is going to take more than a slew of 2nd-tier prospects to acquire him.

I see you are frustrated that Votto/Cueto/Bruce/Volquez are mentioned with trades, and I understand...but a player like Peavy is going to require a hefty price.

remdog
01-03-2009, 01:22 AM
I just started a thread that Jeff Moorad apparently has an agreement to buy the Pads. That may change oth the Pads desire to trade Peavy and it may, if the deal is done, allow the Pads a bigger payroll.

Rem

blumj
01-03-2009, 08:13 AM
If the sale means the Pads don't have to trade Peavy, then Towers get my vote for executive of the year for stalling.